politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s massive challenge: Support for Corbyn as “best PM” is inversely proportional to people’s likelihood to vote
This means that the Tories have double digit leads in four of the five polls since Theresa May became PM. Clearly she is enjoying a honeymoon bounce but, on top of that, she is facing a Labour party that appears to be at war with itself.
@paulwaugh: Owen Smith: Labour 'is not respected' at the moment under Corbyn's leadership. Says tragic that TimesPoll shows Lab voters prefer May to JC
@rustinpeace00: Remember that Labour is a party currently taking itself to court. Owen Smith & Jeremy Corbyn are two cheeks of the same totally inept arse.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
What do you mean Goldman Sachs sounds as dodgy as fuck. This is the company that was caught out selling an investment whilst at the same time trading against it, so its value went down. It was also the company who conspired to fix the greek's books so that it appeared they qualified for Euro membership.
Goldman should have been run out of the City years ago.
The first criticism is an odd one. When someone sells you insurance they are selling you something, and then betting against it happening. There are hundreds of traders in Goldman's London office (and thousands worldwide), and they will have different positions, and different risks they need to hedge against. If I buy a product from Goldman Sachs (or Barclays Capital or UBS or Morgan Stanley) the chances of someone in that firm taking an opposite view to mine and 'trading against me' is close to 100%.
As regards the Greeks, yes that was pretty bad behaviour. Although I don't think all the blame should be laid at Goldman's door: ultimately, they were asked to do something by their clients, the Greek government, i.e., to find a way of issuing debt that would not be included in calculation of debt-to-GDP. How is that different from whichever consultant advised HM Treasury that PFI schemes enabled the government to spend money (and run up debts) that would not be included in the government debt-to-GDP numbers?
When Owen Smith says he wants to smash Theresa May back on her heels, he's not meaning 'smash' in the urban dictionary sense is he?
Thanks for that.
I just want clarity
When Sophie Ridge asked him if he stood by the comment he said that he wasn't advocating violence, while swinging his arm to illustrate the image that he absolutely didn't want to create...
On topic, whilst I think these polls are flattering Mrs May and the Tories because of her honeymoon, on the flip side I can't see how Corbyn survives a 6 week general election campaign.
It's a shame to see PB descend into the anti-Corbyn gutter. Your recent record is tainting past glories.
Well no-one is forcing you to be here.
PB is just reflecting the utter chaos that is the Labour Party today. They are the party that is engaged in the most bitter and violent period in modern political history. It is utterly shameful that a party that used to stand for something has become this current mess.
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
@SophyRidgeSky: Owen Smith says he wants to "smash austerity" & replace the Dpt of Work & Pensions with a Ministry of Labour https://t.co/MAr9CZxXqh
I'd like to know what the actual fuck 'privatising the national debt' is supposed to mean.
Listened to a lot of it. He sounds waaaay more professional than his opponent and seemed to have real passion. He would be a lot, lot more appealing that JC in the North and Scotland (and Wales, natch).
However, to my right-wing ears if somebody had played the speech and told me it was from a Labour conference in 1978, I'd have believed them. Must have mentioned 'workers' over 50 times; 'workers rights' 20 times. Firm belief in the Magic Money Tree.
EDIT: Looking at the photos, it clearly sounded more professional than it looked!
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
Let me guess, another 'expert' who couldn't name a SCon msp other than Davidson without a Google, let alone identify any strength in depth among their ranks.
If Owen Smith is the answer, is the question "who could deliver the 1983 manifesto and looks like President Hollande"?
He does a bit. Hollande has some virtues though, his response to terrorism is a hell of a lot more forthright than anything you will get from a Labour politician.
On topic, whilst I think these polls are flattering Mrs May and the Tories because of her honeymoon, on the flip side I can't see how Corbyn survives a 6 week general election campaign.
How does the non-survival work? He realises halfway through that his position is untenable?
Politics Home Lab leader hopeful Owen Smith denounces "misty eyed romanticism about a revolution" and calls for a "cold eyed and practical revolution".
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
Let me guess, another 'expert' who couldn't name another SCon msp without a Google let alone identify any strength in depth among their ranks.
1 Scottish MSP other than Ruth Davidson follow me on twitter, so I can name at least one.
F1: surprising headline. James Allison has left Ferrari. He was their technical chief (did great things for Lotus and may be the best designer in the business): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36902822
Edited extra bit: he won't have much impact at the next team he goes to (assuming he does go to a new team) in the 2017 season, but for 2018, his presence would be a significant benefit.
What do you mean Goldman Sachs sounds as dodgy as fuck. This is the company that was caught out selling an investment whilst at the same time trading against it, so its value went down. It was also the company who conspired to fix the greek's books so that it appeared they qualified for Euro membership.
Goldman should have been run out of the City years ago.
The first criticism is an odd one. When someone sells you insurance they are selling you something, and then betting against it happening. There are hundreds of traders in Goldman's London office (and thousands worldwide), and they will have different positions, and different risks they need to hedge against. If I buy a product from Goldman Sachs (or Barclays Capital or UBS or Morgan Stanley) the chances of someone in that firm taking an opposite view to mine and 'trading against me' is close to 100%.
As regards the Greeks, yes that was pretty bad behaviour. Although I don't think all the blame should be laid at Goldman's door: ultimately, they were asked to do something by their clients, the Greek government, i.e., to find a way of issuing debt that would not be included in calculation of debt-to-GDP. How is that different from whichever consultant advised HM Treasury that PFI schemes enabled the government to spend money (and run up debts) that would not be included in the government debt-to-GDP numbers?
Goldman Sachs was fined $550 by the SEC for selling debt to one customer whilst arranging for another customer to profit from a fall in the value of that same debt.
"The SEC charged Goldman with failing to disclose "vital information" that one of its clients, Paulson & Co, helped to choose which securities were packaged into a mortgage portfolio that was then sold to investors in 2007.
It claimed Goldman did not disclose that Paulson, one of the world's largest hedge funds, had bet that the value of the securities would fall.
The SEC alleged that investors in the mortgage securities, packaged into a vehicle called Abacus, lost more than $1bn (£650m) in the US housing market collapse.
All of that $1bn was then paid out to Paulson, who - unknown to the investors - stood on the other side of the deal as a "short" investor in the deal."
If Owen Smith is the answer, is the question "who could deliver the 1983 manifesto and looks like President Hollande"?
He does a bit. Hollande has some virtues though, his response to terrorism is a hell of a lot more forthright than anything you will get from a Labour politician.
Well that's not saying much given that the Labour leadership think terrorists should be their friends.
And in any case the French don't appear to think much of Hollande's response to the terrorism they have been suffering.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
F1: surprising headline. James Allison has left Ferrari. He was their technical chief (did great things for Lotus and may be the best designer in the business): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36902822
Edited extra bit: he won't have much impact at the next team he goes to (assuming he does go to a new team) in the 2017 season, but for 2018, his presence would be a significant benefit.
I read somewhere else he wasn't going to be working full time for another team for a few years because of his family situation.
He might do some part time consulting for a British based team
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
Let me guess, another 'expert' who couldn't name another SCon msp without a Google let alone identify any strength in depth among their ranks.
1 Scottish MSP other than Ruth Davidson follow me on twitter, so I can name at least one.
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
Let me guess, another 'expert' who couldn't name another SCon msp without a Google let alone identify any strength in depth among their ranks.
1 Scottish MSP other than Ruth Davidson follow me on twitter, so I can name at least one.
"Support for Corbyn as 'best PM' is inversely proportional to people’s likelihood to vote".
I think preferring Labour has been inversely proportional to people's likelihood to vote, since about the 1950s. I have no stats to back that up, but everyone on the left knows that "Tories always vote".
F1: surprising headline. James Allison has left Ferrari. He was their technical chief (did great things for Lotus and may be the best designer in the business): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36902822
Edited extra bit: he won't have much impact at the next team he goes to (assuming he does go to a new team) in the 2017 season, but for 2018, his presence would be a significant benefit.
AIUI there are personal circumstances, his wife passed away and he wants to come back to the UK full time to be with his family. Opens the door or McLaren, RBR and Williams to get one of the top designers in though.
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
Not quite half the SNP score, but next year's Scottish council elections are going to be fun.
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
Tory fanboys wetting their pants on a subsample
It seems to be pretty much unarguable now that the Tories are the party on the march in Scotland, and are best placed to hoover up the SNP when their arrogance and incompetence finally smashes them on the rocks.
Let me guess, another 'expert' who couldn't name a SCon msp other than Davidson without a Google, let alone identify any strength in depth among their ranks.
What does any of this have to do with the price of deep fried haggis?
Owen Smith to build 300,000 homes a year in next Parliament. Yeh, right. 'Cos no one else has had the same aspiration in last twenty years.
I can get behind the more homes and more money for the NHS, but not sure about the IHT...
Building homes is great. But how? How is going to deliver this? Brown wanted to do it. Cameron wanted to do it.
I think there is alot both Brown and Cameron could do, but didn't. Ironically the posts of @Currystar seemed to indicate that housebuilding was really starting to pick up pre-Brexit
Personally I think a mix of LA and private is best - it's something that's best being non ideological about.
What do you mean Goldman Sachs sounds as dodgy as fuck. This is the company that was caught out selling an investment whilst at the same time trading against it, so its value went down. It was also the company who conspired to fix the greek's books so that it appeared they qualified for Euro membership.
Goldman should have been run out of the City years ago.
The first criticism is an odd one. When someone sells you insurance they are selling you something, and then betting against it happening. There are hundreds of traders in Goldman's London office (and thousands worldwide), and they will have different positions, and different risks they need to hedge against. If I buy a product from Goldman Sachs (or Barclays Capital or UBS or Morgan Stanley) the chances of someone in that firm taking an opposite view to mine and 'trading against me' is close to 100%.
As regards the Greeks, yes that was pretty bad behaviour. Although I don't think all the blame should be laid at Goldman's door: ultimately, they were asked to do something by their clients, the Greek government, i.e., to find a way of issuing debt that would not be included in calculation of debt-to-GDP. How is that different from whichever consultant advised HM Treasury that PFI schemes enabled the government to spend money (and run up debts) that would not be included in the government debt-to-GDP numbers?
Goldman Sachs was fined $550 by the SEC for selling debt to one customer whilst arranging for another customer to profit from a fall in the value of that same debt.
"The SEC charged Goldman with failing to disclose "vital information" that one of its clients, Paulson & Co, helped to choose which securities were packaged into a mortgage portfolio that was then sold to investors in 2007.
It claimed Goldman did not disclose that Paulson, one of the world's largest hedge funds, had bet that the value of the securities would fall.
The SEC alleged that investors in the mortgage securities, packaged into a vehicle called Abacus, lost more than $1bn (£650m) in the US housing market collapse.
All of that $1bn was then paid out to Paulson, who - unknown to the investors - stood on the other side of the deal as a "short" investor in the deal."
Yes; and they were rightly fined.
Back in 2007, demand for mortgage backed securities was so great, that banks were creating synthetic securities for investors.
Owen Smith has previous when it comes to violence against women comments:
A new MP has apologised after he compared the UK government's planned public spending cuts to domestic violence.
Owen Smith, the Labour MP for Pontypridd, wrote in an online article: "Surely, the Liberals will file for divorce as soon as the bruises start to show through the make-up?"
Mr. Eagles/Mr. Max, could still be an advantage for practically any team other than Sauber or Ferrari (the two that spring to mind which aren't UK-based).
Well that's not saying much given that the Labour leadership think terrorists should be their friends.
And in any case the French don't appear to think much of Hollande's response to the terrorism they have been suffering.
True, it will take a long time to fix the problems with the security and intelligence services so that attacks are prevented, but I think the response to attacks has been good and I doubt that we would fare as well.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
Hey! That "haddock" reference is mine.......
Isn't it Monty Python's?
Monty Python said that President Hollande and Owen Smith looked like haddocks in a suit.....?
It's a shame to see PB descend into the anti-Corbyn gutter. Your recent record is tainting past glories.
Well no-one is forcing you to be here.
PB is just reflecting the utter chaos that is the Labour Party today. They are the party that is engaged in the most bitter and violent period in modern political history. It is utterly shameful that a party that used to stand for something has become this current mess.
Amazing that just one man is responsible for all of this. One would have thought it would have taken at least 172.
It's a shame to see PB descend into the anti-Corbyn gutter. Your recent record is tainting past glories.
Well no-one is forcing you to be here.
PB is just reflecting the utter chaos that is the Labour Party today. They are the party that is engaged in the most bitter and violent period in modern political history. It is utterly shameful that a party that used to stand for something has become this current mess.
Indeed so - and it is all the fault of Harriet Harman.
When Owen Smith says he wants to smash Theresa May back on her heels, he's not meaning 'smash' in the urban dictionary sense is he?
Am I going to regret asking what "'smash' in the urban dictionary sense" means?
Yes
I like to help educate Cyclefree for her job, thanks to me, she now knows why so many of the staff she regulates change at Baker Street
And now I know that Owen Smith thinks Theresa May is a WILF.
See thanks to me, not only do you get excellent betting advice, political analysis, pop music references, science knowledge, subtle puns, and a deeper understanding of how the youth speaks these days.
Owen Smith is one of the worst leadership candidates I've ever seen anywhere: soporific voice, tone-deaf rhetoric, reheated failed policy ideas and the gravitas of a haddock.
Hey! That "haddock" reference is mine.......
Isn't it Monty Python's?
Would that be the fish dance filmed at Teddington Lock? Was a haddock actually mentioned in that sketch? I seem to recall there was no actual dialogue - just the dance.
Haddocks on PB is pretty much a Morris Dancer theme (his genetically engineered Enormo-Haddock have been around since, I think, 2007/8).
BlackAdder did have an explicit reference to Haddock, "Wetter than a haddock's bathing costume" used when referring to Amy the potential bride for Prince George in series 3, which must have been early 1990s, maybe late 1980s.
It's a shame to see PB descend into the anti-Corbyn gutter. Your recent record is tainting past glories.
It's going to the gutter to reflect general pundit opinion on Corbyn? Maybe it is totally off base and there is a hidden groundswell of support for the man, but sometimes mainstream thought is mainstream for a reason.
This will come off as rank hypocrisy, but some people get way too worked up about political opinions, even on this place.
Comments
Says tragic that TimesPoll shows Lab voters prefer May to JC
Snigger.
Which is an improvement on Corbyn's Venezuela...
Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party = The Bulgars
The 2020 General Election = The Battle of Kleidion
But don't forget what happened after Basil II died.
Edited extra bit: also, Kleidion*
The Labour Leader of Camden council accused me of being sexist for calling Theresa May's reshuffle the night of the long kitten heels.
What say you now!
Might just be enough to smash him right up.
Basil, Brush, I'll get my coat
*I never forget
As regards the Greeks, yes that was pretty bad behaviour. Although I don't think all the blame should be laid at Goldman's door: ultimately, they were asked to do something by their clients, the Greek government, i.e., to find a way of issuing debt that would not be included in calculation of debt-to-GDP. How is that different from whichever consultant advised HM Treasury that PFI schemes enabled the government to spend money (and run up debts) that would not be included in the government debt-to-GDP numbers?
Westminster voting intention (Scotland n=154)
Con: 23
Lab: 11
LibD: 3
UKIP: 6
SNP: 53
I know its a subsample, but have the Tories ever been more than double Labour (and more than half the SNP(!)) before?
MonikerDiCanio said:
» show previous quotes
Brittania unbound. Thanks Boris.
3 new sets of troughers living high on the hog
Still can't get over those Scottish YouGov leader ratings from yesterday
PB is just reflecting the utter chaos that is the Labour Party today. They are the party that is engaged in the most bitter and violent period in modern political history. It is utterly shameful that a party that used to stand for something has become this current mess.
However, to my right-wing ears if somebody had played the speech and told me it was from a Labour conference in 1978, I'd have believed them. Must have mentioned 'workers' over 50 times; 'workers rights' 20 times. Firm belief in the Magic Money Tree.
EDIT: Looking at the photos, it clearly sounded more professional than it looked!
"The first criticism is an odd one. When someone sells you insurance they are selling you something, and then betting against it happening."
We prefer to call it "reinsuring", not "betting against"......
Owen Smith in 2010: "The Liberals will file for divorce as soon as the bruises start to show through the make-up"
This bloke isn't a very nice guy, is he....
Politics Home
Lab leader hopeful Owen Smith denounces "misty eyed romanticism about a revolution" and calls for a "cold eyed and practical revolution".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36902822
Edited extra bit: he won't have much impact at the next team he goes to (assuming he does go to a new team) in the 2017 season, but for 2018, his presence would be a significant benefit.
Goldman Sachs was fined $550 by the SEC for selling debt to one customer whilst arranging for another customer to profit from a fall in the value of that same debt.
See BBC at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10656699
"The SEC charged Goldman with failing to disclose "vital information" that one of its clients, Paulson & Co, helped to choose which securities were packaged into a mortgage portfolio that was then sold to investors in 2007.
It claimed Goldman did not disclose that Paulson, one of the world's largest hedge funds, had bet that the value of the securities would fall.
The SEC alleged that investors in the mortgage securities, packaged into a vehicle called Abacus, lost more than $1bn (£650m) in the US housing market collapse.
All of that $1bn was then paid out to Paulson, who - unknown to the investors - stood on the other side of the deal as a "short" investor in the deal."
@GerriPeev: What did Owen Smith want for lunch? Fish and chips. Apparently he loves a good battering
And in any case the French don't appear to think much of Hollande's response to the terrorism they have been suffering.
Isn't it Monty Python's?
He might do some part time consulting for a British based team
Dare I ask what 'WATP' means?
I think preferring Labour has been inversely proportional to people's likelihood to vote, since about the 1950s. I have no stats to back that up, but everyone on the left knows that "Tories always vote".
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/david-herdson-harold-wilson’s-‘moral-crusade’-has-been-re-invented-corbynites
Personally I think a mix of LA and private is best - it's something that's best being non ideological about.
Be fair to Jezza, he has some elements of being a UK Christian. He loves their enemies.
Unfortunately, he hates them and their friends
Back in 2007, demand for mortgage backed securities was so great, that banks were creating synthetic securities for investors.
A new MP has apologised after he compared the UK government's planned public spending cuts to domestic violence.
Owen Smith, the Labour MP for Pontypridd, wrote in an online article: "Surely, the Liberals will file for divorce as soon as the bruises start to show through the make-up?"
http://www.bbc.com/news/10156864
Bad news for Vettel.
Haddocks on PB is pretty much a Morris Dancer theme (his genetically engineered Enormo-Haddock have been around since, I think, 2007/8).
BlackAdder did have an explicit reference to Haddock, "Wetter than a haddock's bathing costume" used when referring to Amy the potential bride for Prince George in series 3, which must have been early 1990s, maybe late 1980s.
This will come off as rank hypocrisy, but some people get way too worked up about political opinions, even on this place.
Plaid swift to respond to Smith's Theresa May smash/heels line. https://t.co/PM6oqzVhDU