If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
"awful at the moment"? Is there any moment in recorded history when she has not been awful?
I haven't seen much if her, if this is who Labour are putting forwards then they are fucked. Where are Labour's big beasts.
He lost his seat. A moment's amusement, a major public loss. Bit like Portillo really.
It's sad that Balls is considered a big beast.
The man who kept us out of the Euro. I would be quite sanguine about a Labour Party led by him in the current position as an alternative government if May lets her authoritarian streak run away with itself.
Still not a big beast though. It feels like Labour don't have any big beasts. Even we're pretty thin on the ground. Ken Clark, Boris, Hammond, May and Fallon qualify as big beasts to me, you'd probably add Osborne, but Clark is on his way out and Boris could be irreparably damaged.
What is your definition of "big beast" such that Fallon qualifies but Balls doesn't?
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
My bet is that the plan is:
- Eagle starts the formal process tomorrow - NEC says Corbyn needs nominations - Corbyn won't pursue this through the courts - Corbyn can't get enough nominations to stand, nor can any other hard lefty - other candidates enter the race, Eagle drops out or soft pedals - new leader elected, hopefully somebody the MPs can stomach - if lots of lefties leave, so much the better - how much damage can the lefties do, compared to the damage/risk of the other options? - they have the brand, most of members, unions and money - hope the whole fuss dies down given the big government issues in store
I am not saying they can pull this off, or that they won't find the cost or risk is bigger than they think. But I am sure it is the plan.
Pretty close to the truth, I'd wager. I also think it stands a reasonable (50-50) chance of working.
Haven't read the comments so someone may have mentioned this.
I'd be surprised if the date of exit isn't (a relatively uncontroversial) point of negotiation.
That, for instance, say Article 50 was triggered on the 17th September 2017.
I wouldn't be surprised if they negotiated that the exit date wasn't 17th September 2019 but another date: 31 December 2019 or 5 April 2020 for example.
If it's the 31 December 2019 then "the first full day outside the EU" screws up the 2019 bet.
Yes. Article 50 is not a fixed clock. By common agreement, exit can be delayed. Even indefinitely.
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
"awful at the moment"? Is there any moment in recorded history when she has not been awful?
I haven't seen much if her, if this is who Labour are putting forwards then they are fucked. Where are Labour's big beasts.
He lost his seat. A moment's amusement, a major public loss. Bit like Portillo really.
It's sad that Balls is considered a big beast.
The man who kept us out of the Euro. I would be quite sanguine about a Labour Party led by him in the current position as an alternative government if May lets her authoritarian streak run away with itself.
Still not a big beast though. It feels like Labour don't have any big beasts. Even we're pretty thin on the ground. Ken Clark, Boris, Hammond, May and Fallon qualify as big beasts to me, you'd probably add Osborne, but Clark is on his way out and Boris could be irreparably damaged.
What is your definition of "big beast" such that Fallon qualifies but Balls doesn't?
Mr. L, I suspect there'd be more smearing in the press if Balls were still in front line politics. We're better off without the likes of him, McBride, and Campbell.
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
Angela Eagle is useless and has accomplished virtually nothing throughout her entire time in parliament. - She also appears to have more balls than the rest ot the Labour MPs put together – credit, where credit is due.
Yep, she knows she is in for a shit storm and if it comes to a ballot she cannot win but she is doing it anyway to try and force Corbyn and his followers out before it is too late. Could have done this sooner but at least she has the guts to do it at all....I am looking at you Tom Watson!
IMRC, Eagle’s deferred timetable to launch her leadership bid was at the behest of Tom Watson while he negotiated with the Unions. Another casualty of this crisis is Watson himself, his credentials as Labour’s main powerbroker has been severely tarnished with his abject failure to cut any deal with the Unions. Watson is not the kingpin we thought he was.
The plan is that Labour MPs don't think they can beat Corbyn in a membership election.
So they are going to keep him off the ballot in a legally contested move. Which will obviously outrage Corbyn supporters, and probably some others who don't support him also. Seriously piss off the unions. Lead to a long-lasting court battle. Totally undermine the authority/mandate of whoever comes next.
All to elect Angela Eagle- a woman so popular that she finished 4th in the deputy leadership election last year?
Mr. L, I suspect there'd be more smearing in the press if Balls were still in front line politics. We're better off without the likes of him, McBride, and Campbell.
A talented politician who plays politics, but politics is a big boys' game. He is a good family man, a decent person. And you call him "scum".
I thought you were above that sort of stuff. Try giving your opponents some credit.
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
Angela Eagle is useless and has accomplished virtually nothing throughout her entire time in parliament. - She also appears to have more balls than the rest ot the Labour MPs put together – credit, where credit is due.
Yep, she knows she is in for a shit storm and if it comes to a ballot she cannot win but she is doing it anyway to try and force Corbyn and his followers out before it is too late. Could have done this sooner but at least she has the guts to do it at all....I am looking at you Tom Watson!
Eagle was just 10 points behind Corbyn in a members' poll just over a week ago on 40% to Corbyn's 50%, given Corbyn got 60% last September I do not think another Corbyn landslide is a given even if he does get on the membership ballot again
I did not realise they were that close, hmmm.
Yes, if Eagle makes it close she could fatally would Corbyn even if she does not win. If Corbyn wins another members' ballot by a landslide then moderate Labour MPs should immediately start talks with the LDs as Paddy Ashdown has suggested and defect en masse to a new SDP party leaving Corbyn with a hard left rump. If May then wins the Tory leadership, as looks likely, Leadsomite Tory MPs should then defect en masse to UKIP. That way we would get the realignment the country desperately needs, a centre-left party made up of New Labour and the LDs, a centre-right Tory Party, a hard left Old Labour Party (perhaps joined by Caroline Lucas and the Greens), and a rightwing anti-EU Party formed of Carswell and UKIP and the most Thatcherite Tory MPs.
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
Angela Eagle is useless and has accomplished virtually nothing throughout her entire time in parliament. - She also appears to have more balls than the rest ot the Labour MPs put together – credit, where credit is due.
Yep, she knows she is in for a shit storm and if it comes to a ballot she cannot win but she is doing it anyway to try and force Corbyn and his followers out before it is too late. Could have done this sooner but at least she has the guts to do it at all....I am looking at you Tom Watson!
IMRC, Eagle’s deferred timetable to launch her leadership bid was at the behest of Tom Watson while he negotiated with the Unions. Another casualty of this crisis is Watson himself, his credentials as Labour’s main powerbroker has been severely tarnished with his abject failure to cut any deal with the Unions. Watson is not the kingpin we thought he was.
I think there is some truth in that.
I think there are many now in the Labour who aren't clear what they want to achieve. It makes reading the situation much more difficult.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
The plan is that Labour MPs don't think they can beat Corbyn in a membership election.
So they are going to keep him off the ballot in a legally contested move. Which will obviously outrage Corbyn supporters, and probably some others who don't support him also. Seriously piss off the unions. Lead to a long-lasting court battle. Totally undermine the authority/mandate of whoever comes next.
All to elect Angela Eagle- a woman so popular that she finished 4th in the deputy leadership election last year?
The plan isn't to elect Angela Eagle. She's the sacrificial lamb. Once they get a ruling on whether Corbyn is on the ballot others can follow in.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
Nick you must know best, but can a CLP not resolve to deselect someone by motion? There was speculation that Eagle could face a threat as early as next week.
The answer may be that she cannot be removed by vote - much like Corbyn - but it would be deeply embarrassing and harm her ability to be the PM past the next election.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I am on holiday in Majorca at the moment and for the 3rd time in 3 years am completely bemused by the complete lack of working Internet near the Med. anyway I have been using the enforced time offline to come up with a list of why May will be a good PM.
1. I will once again have a PM older than me which feels like the natural order of things.
....
It's a work in progress.
In Harare you have working internet, no problem.
I simply could not do my job the way I do it with Internet 10x better than this. The implications for productivity must be immense but have to be countered by people spending less time writing and sending pointless e-mails. You are right though that many so called third world countries have skipped this 90's style crap and gone to the next generation. I can't help feeling the economic consequences of that will prove significant.
The plan is that Labour MPs don't think they can beat Corbyn in a membership election.
So they are going to keep him off the ballot in a legally contested move. Which will obviously outrage Corbyn supporters, and probably some others who don't support him also. Seriously piss off the unions. Lead to a long-lasting court battle. Totally undermine the authority/mandate of whoever comes next.
All to elect Angela Eagle- a woman so popular that she finished 4th in the deputy leadership election last year?
Mr. L, I suspect there'd be more smearing in the press if Balls were still in front line politics. We're better off without the likes of him, McBride, and Campbell.
Motes and beams. Most of it comes from CCHQ -- you may not have noticed as that directed against Labour was probably seen as fair comment or even as statements of the bleeding obvious. Where it has more recently caused distress on the right, it has been directed at Leave and now at Leadsom.
Cameron's and Osborne's legacy will be to have debased political debate in this country using tactics imported from America and Australia.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
There are going to be lots of deselections then :-)
Labour is going to split. The only issue now is whether the Corbynistas or the PLP keep the Labour name.
The plan is that Labour MPs don't think they can beat Corbyn in a membership election.
So they are going to keep him off the ballot in a legally contested move. Which will obviously outrage Corbyn supporters, and probably some others who don't support him also. Seriously piss off the unions. Lead to a long-lasting court battle. Totally undermine the authority/mandate of whoever comes next.
All to elect Angela Eagle- a woman so popular that she finished 4th in the deputy leadership election last year?
Corbyn can enter, if he gets the requisite number of nominations. Fair playing field.
I'm a bit confused by the Leave side talking about going to WTO rules. Why let this unelected body dictate what we can and can't do in terms of tariffs? Who elected them? If we, the people of the UK, can't kick them out, what was the entire sovereignty/take back control argument about in the first place? Next thing you know they'll be dictating things like maximum tariffs, acceptable farm subsidies, intellectual property rights, limit restrictions on foreign direct investment...
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
Angela Eagle is useless and has accomplished virtually nothing throughout her entire time in parliament. - She also appears to have more balls than the rest ot the Labour MPs put together – credit, where credit is due.
Yep, she knows she is in for a shit storm and if it comes to a ballot she cannot win but she is doing it anyway to try and force Corbyn and his followers out before it is too late. Could have done this sooner but at least she has the guts to do it at all....I am looking at you Tom Watson!
IMRC, Eagle’s deferred timetable to launch her leadership bid was at the behest of Tom Watson while he negotiated with the Unions. Another casualty of this crisis is Watson himself, his credentials as Labour’s main powerbroker has been severely tarnished with his abject failure to cut any deal with the Unions. Watson is not the kingpin we thought he was.
Watson was also a gutless idiot. He should - as Deputy Leader, and a man who beat Angela by a mile in the election - have stood against Corbyn.
He was popular with activists, and he's been front and centre so far. Bit he's fucked it up.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
Would they be guaranteed that? If net immigration dropped to (say) 200,000 per year, then what's the incentive?
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Mr. L, I suspect there'd be more smearing in the press if Balls were still in front line politics. We're better off without the likes of him, McBride, and Campbell.
I blame Brown for McBride rather than Balls but it was not his finest hour. Brown was a psychotic little shit who perverted and corrupted everything he touched and I accept Balls was not immune. He has a brain though, an ability to construct a coherent argument and some sense of judgement that the current rabble completely lack.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
There are going to be lots of deselections then :-)
Labour is going to split. The only issue now is whether the Corbynistas or the PLP keep the Labour name.
What are the big policy differences which justify this split though?
I can see there's a big difference on foreign policy. There's a clear difference on Trident. But on domestic policy there really isn't all that much?
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
"awful at the moment"? Is there any moment in recorded history when she has not been awful?
I haven't seen much if her, if this is who Labour are putting forwards then they are fucked. Where are Labour's big beasts.
He lost his seat. A moment's amusement, a major public loss. Bit like Portillo really.
It's sad that Balls is considered a big beast.
The man who kept us out of the Euro. I would be quite sanguine about a Labour Party led by him in the current position as an alternative government if May lets her authoritarian streak run away with itself.
Still not a big beast though. It feels like Labour don't have any big beasts. Even we're pretty thin on the ground. Ken Clark, Boris, Hammond, May and Fallon qualify as big beasts to me, you'd probably add Osborne, but Clark is on his way out and Boris could be irreparably damaged.
What is your definition of "big beast" such that Fallon qualifies but Balls doesn't?
Well Fallon was British Champion Flat Jockey six times. Balls may be an able cricketer but in terms of achievement there is a gulf between the two.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
There are going to be lots of deselections then :-)
Labour is going to split. The only issue now is whether the Corbynistas or the PLP keep the Labour name.
IIRC the deselected MP to whom Mr P refers upthread was one S O Davies, the extremely popular, but idiosyncratic, MP for Merthry Tydvil in the 60’s. He was deselected at the age of 80 but fought and won the next GE as an independent. He died a couple of years later and Labour regained the seat.
Mr. Max, Balls is scum. One is satisfied to have played a small role removing him from the Commons.
Edited extra bit: his failure to retain his seat was 'absolutely bloody brilliant'.
Justify that horrible statement. I really does you no credit at all.
Pot.... kettle.
Show me an example. Since when did I refer to someone as scum?
Your mantra of 17 million racist, xenophobic little Englanders is close enough in my book. Your holier than thou , London centric "oooh look at me I'm a Londoner, aren't we superior" attitude to anything and anyone you disagree with is a particular pain in the arse too. In my opinion ;-)
Mr. L, I did say at the time that Brown never got a fair crack from the media (he either got undeserved credit or unremitting blame even when it was unwarranted).
More recently it's been a bit weird because Corbyn actually is a unilateralist friend of Hamas, and most of the attacks on him have been from his own side.
Anyway, I'm off now. F1 starts in 50 minutes or so.
I saw a tweet from Nick Boles last night saying the STimes was totally wrong - and he'd said it was untrue earlier/baffled they'd run with it nevertheless.
Odd that @thesundaytimes should suggest I might leave the Conservative Party after I specifically denied it. The story is being corrected.
Eagle is as good as conceding that the plan is to deny Corbyn a place in the election. My guess is that they have delayed until they think they have this lined up already.
There's been very little evidence of planning in the PLP's antics so far.
Lined up the NEC. That is the important one.
How difficult is it for Corbyn supporters to deselect a sitting Labour MP? Can they just put a motion to the local members or is there a drawn out process they have to follow?
Deselections would have to follow a Corbyn victory.
It's a slow process (deliberately), assuming the MP doesn't want to quit. Nothing whatever happens until the time comes to select a new candidate (2018, say). Sitting MPs then face a vote on whether they should be reselected. Occasionally the answer has been "no". I can only remember one case, not very political - the MP was very old and members felt it was time to move on. If the MP loses the vote, there is then an open selection, and I think the MP is not entitled to have another go at that.
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
Eagle was just 10 points behind Corbyn in a members' poll just over a week ago on 40% to Corbyn's 50%, given Corbyn got 60% last September I do not think another Corbyn landslide is a given even if he does get on the membership ballot again
I did not realise they were that close, hmmm.
I think it's common ground that a chunk of longstanding members are having qualms about Jeremy and that the new members are mostly pro-Jeremy. The poll was presumably of the former - I don't think the panel is updated often enough to include members who joined last month.
The centre-right's nervousness is reflected in two obviously biased maneuvres - they hope to keep Jeremy off the ballot (which even Tony Blair says would be obviously contrary to natural justice) and they hope to ban all new mmbers from voting at all. If the campaign is fought on this sort of basis they can forget about getting middle-ground members (of whom there are many). We need to know what Eagle and anyone else actually want to do.
Eagle was just 10 points behind Corbyn in a members' poll just over a week ago on 40% to Corbyn's 50%, given Corbyn got 60% last September I do not think another Corbyn landslide is a given even if he does get on the membership ballot again
I did not realise they were that close, hmmm.
I think it's common ground that a chunk of longstanding members are having qualms about Jeremy and that the new members are mostly pro-Jeremy. The poll was presumably of the former - I don't think the panel is updated often enough to include members who joined last month.
The centre-right's nervousness is reflected in two obviously biased maneuvres - they hope to keep Jeremy off the ballot (which even Tony Blair says would be obviously contrary to natural justice) and they hope to ban all new mmbers from voting at all. If the campaign is fought on this sort of basis they can forget about getting middle-ground members (of whom there are many). We need to know what Eagle and anyone else actually want to do.
The Tories ban any new members from voting if they have not been members for at least 3 months, if Labour had any brains they would do the same
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Indeed but I think she is most likely to get minor concessions at best
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
Would they be guaranteed that? If net immigration dropped to (say) 200,000 per year, then what's the incentive?
Given May's previous record on immigration I would not expect any significant fall in migrant numbers under her premiership
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
Angela Eagle is useless and has accomplished virtually nothing throughout her entire time in parliament. - She also appears to have more balls than the rest ot the Labour MPs put together – credit, where credit is due.
Yep, she knows she is in for a shit storm and if it comes to a ballot she cannot win but she is doing it anyway to try and force Corbyn and his followers out before it is too late. Could have done this sooner but at least she has the guts to do it at all....I am looking at you Tom Watson!
IMRC, Eagle’s deferred timetable to launch her leadership bid was at the behest of Tom Watson while he negotiated with the Unions. Another casualty of this crisis is Watson himself, his credentials as Labour’s main powerbroker has been severely tarnished with his abject failure to cut any deal with the Unions. Watson is not the kingpin we thought he was.
If the answer to Labour's problems are Angela Eagle then they are asking the wrong questions. She is awful at the moment.
"awful at the moment"? Is there any moment in recorded history when she has not been awful?
I haven't seen much if her, if this is who Labour are putting forwards then they are fucked. Where are Labour's big beasts.
He lost his seat. A moment's amusement, a major public loss. Bit like Portillo really.
It's sad that Balls is considered a big beast.
The man who kept us out of the Euro. I would be quite sanguine about a Labour Party led by him in the current position as an alternative government if May lets her authoritarian streak run away with itself.
Still not a big beast though. It feels like Labour don't have any big beasts. Even we're pretty thin on the ground. Ken Clark, Boris, Hammond, May and Fallon qualify as big beasts to me, you'd probably add Osborne, but Clark is on his way out and Boris could be irreparably damaged.
LOL, you are a comedian for sure. Apart from Clark your list are a bunch of useless fannies.
When you say the "Commonwealth" , do you mean the "white" Commonwealth [ otherwise, known as the "Old" Commonwealth ] or the entire Commonwealth.
The Commonwealth is composed of mainly Republics. Take out your rose tinted spectacles.
They still all have represenative democracy, the common law and the rule of law. They nearly all speak English either as a first languagem an official language or a defacto official language. Basically politically they all play Rugby Union wheras the EU dosent even keep to the rules of Rugby league.
It is not a centralised organisation like the EU and no one will be forced into anything.
The fact is that I could, without any prior knowledge of the place, land in India or even Zimbabwe, comminicate with anyone educated, have the ability to competently find myself housing and work (in terms of being capable of doing the application, understsnding how contractual issues work - not employment laws for immigrants). I would be in an environment where the basic framework of life is the same - yes even in Zimbabwe. And in time off I could join a cricket club :-)
That is not the case anywhere in the EU except RoI, Malta and Cyprus.
I am looking forward to India play Pakistan at rugby followed by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The winners could take on Malaysia.........
What crap are you talking ? Just say you meant only the "white bit" of the Commonwealth and we will all understand what you really wanted to say.
No I dont mean just the white commonwealth although in practice free movement would be thus limited to avoid the same problem we have with Eastern Europe at the moment, until such time as other members are as wealthy so unbalanced movement would not occur.
No reason why we cant have free trade and free movement for all who can demonstate a certain level of wealth so as to be able to support themselves with India S.A. etc
The commonwealth isnt a one size fits all organisation like the EU.
"that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election" A rather naive statement from a wise head.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
If we get EEA UKIP would be guaranteed about 20-25% of the vote ie about the same the LDs got in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but that would not be enough to win a general election even if would mean they won a few more seats
I think it depends on the settlement that May gets on free movement, if there are enough small changes to bring immigration down to below 200k I think UKIP will be looking at a somilar performance to what they have now. If she gets nothing and immigration stays at above 300k then I agree that they should be looking at a minimum of 20%.
Indeed but I think she is most likely to get minor concessions at best
The existing EFTA renewable emergency brake and restrictions on migrant benefits/NHS entitlement will do fine for now.
Comments
Mr. L, I suspect there'd be more smearing in the press if Balls were still in front line politics. We're better off without the likes of him, McBride, and Campbell.
The plan is that Labour MPs don't think they can beat Corbyn in a membership election.
So they are going to keep him off the ballot in a legally contested move.
Which will obviously outrage Corbyn supporters, and probably some others who don't support him also. Seriously piss off the unions. Lead to a long-lasting court battle. Totally undermine the authority/mandate of whoever comes next.
All to elect Angela Eagle- a woman so popular that she finished 4th in the deputy leadership election last year?
I thought you were above that sort of stuff. Try giving your opponents some credit.
https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/751901422560706560
If Corbyn wins, I think middle-of-the-road Corbyn supporters will ask the MP if he'll accept the result and serve with normal loyalty - sometimes disagreeing on an issue like Trident, but not constantly briefing against Corbyn, refusing to serve, etc. If he says "yes", I think deselection will be infrequent. If he says "no, I'll fight him to the last", then deselection will be an expected consequence. We can't go on with an eternal civil war.
Let's say that the Brexit votership is 45% (having removed a few Bregretters), then three quarters of Brexiters would need to vote Ukip for them to win the election. This seems highly unlikely if the Brexit process has been initiated and is going along towards its conclusion. I would rather say "that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP makes a massive dent in Tory support at the 2020 general election."
And, be that as it may, there do seem to be some Tories who want an election before
we leave the EU. http://markfieldmp.com/news-a-articles/to-those-constituents-demanding-a-second-referendum/
The answer may be that she cannot be removed by vote - much like Corbyn - but it would be deeply embarrassing and harm her ability to be the PM past the next election.
Spain is at 85%, ahead of the US (80%), Ireland (76%), France (74%), and Italy (71%). I think you may just be unlucky.
Cameron's and Osborne's legacy will be to have debased political debate in this country using tactics imported from America and Australia.
Labour is going to split. The only issue now is whether the Corbynistas or the PLP keep the Labour name.
He won't get the nominations? Tough luck.
Why let this unelected body dictate what we can and can't do in terms of tariffs? Who elected them?
If we, the people of the UK, can't kick them out, what was the entire sovereignty/take back control argument about in the first place?
Next thing you know they'll be dictating things like maximum tariffs, acceptable farm subsidies, intellectual property rights, limit restrictions on foreign direct investment...
He was popular with activists, and he's been front and centre so far.
Bit he's fucked it up.
Smearing should not be an accepted part of politics. I'd sooner attack those who smear than those who are disgusted by smearing.
I can see there's a big difference on foreign policy.
There's a clear difference on Trident.
But on domestic policy there really isn't all that much?
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
More recently it's been a bit weird because Corbyn actually is a unilateralist friend of Hamas, and most of the attacks on him have been from his own side.
Anyway, I'm off now. F1 starts in 50 minutes or so.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/08/brexit-causes-resurgence-in-pro-eu-leanings-across-continent
Odd that @thesundaytimes should suggest I might leave the Conservative Party after I specifically denied it. The story is being corrected.
The STimes haven't corrected it at all.
The centre-right's nervousness is reflected in two obviously biased maneuvres - they hope to keep Jeremy off the ballot (which even Tony Blair says would be obviously contrary to natural justice) and they hope to ban all new mmbers from voting at all. If the campaign is fought on this sort of basis they can forget about getting middle-ground members (of whom there are many). We need to know what Eagle and anyone else actually want to do.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_national_rugby_union_team.
No I dont mean just the white commonwealth although in practice free movement would be thus limited to avoid the same problem we have with Eastern Europe at the moment, until such time as other members are as wealthy so unbalanced movement would not occur.
No reason why we cant have free trade and free movement for all who can demonstate a certain level of wealth so as to be able to support themselves with India S.A. etc
The commonwealth isnt a one size fits all organisation like the EU.
It's a new one on me.