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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

There’s a couple of markets up on when Article 50 will be triggered, if you’re lucky to have a Stan James account, I wonder backing the any other outcome other option. It is effectively a bet on Article 50 being triggered in 2018 or later, not at all.

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JosiasJessop

Thirst?

2017 for me.

anotherDave

I think Mr Gove said not until 2017. Vote Leadsom!

anotherDave

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

nunu

How would people on here feel about corporation tax in Britain falling below Ireland's? Say if it was revenue neutral in the short term by closing loopholes but raised say an extra few billion in the short term. The chancellor is planning cutting below 15%.

Lowlander

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

malcolmg said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Europe seems to be in perpetual economic limbo with the woes of the Eurozone. They have a £100bn surplus at stake in their dealings with the UK. The German car industry is playing with over 20% of it's exports.

Did you know that, even if the Eurozone exports to the UK fell to zero, it would still run a current account surplus.

They are still in bother and £100 Billion of Tat not going out would cause quite a few issues methinks. Given most of it will be from Germany and France.

Remind me, what does Scotland export that is not black and sticky?

Scotch whisky accounts for around a quarter of all British food exports.

No idea what the value of oil exports is these days but Scotch whisky exports are worth just under £4 billion a year. That is one very important industry.

And growing all the time. Production isn't labour intensive enough to support huge amounts of jobs though. There are plenty of ancillary jobs however.

Which are, sadly, mainly in London. I would not be surprised if more Income Tax is paid in Brent with regards to the Scots Whisky industry than is paid in the whole of Scotland. Of course all that Income Tax is classed by the Treasury (and therefore GERS and Chokkablog) as "London Region".

ReggieCide

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

As far as pressure for clarity is concerned, it's the markets that matter not the EU. Delaying is our boat and the EU is in it with us, virtually powerless. Might it help us squeeze the EU? It's a poker call.

rcs1000

France is mostly demonstrating just how sh1t the England team is.

Big_G_NorthWales

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

rcs1000

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I'm not sure it's as simple as that. Financial services jobs are more likely to move away from us during any period of uncertainty; that's a win for them over us.

John_M

ReggieCide said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

As far as pressure for clarity is concerned, it's the markets that matter not the EU. Delaying is our boat and the EU is in it with us, virtually powerless. Might it help us squeeze the EU? It's a poker call.

We're the ones that will be damaged by undue delay. We're dealing with intangibles; business & consumer confidence are incredibly important. We don't need investment delays or a consumer slump.

We need to help Germany to help us. They're on our side. Others less so.

tyson

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

Ain't going to happen comrade.

ThreeQuidder

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

That's democracy for you. A vote is a vote.

tyson

nunu said:

How would people on here feel about corporation tax in Britain falling below Ireland's? Say if it was revenue neutral in the short term by closing loopholes but raised say an extra few billion in the short term. The chancellor is planning cutting below 15%.

I don't think courting the opinion of people posting on here is going to present you with a sensible answer.

Richard_Tyndall

I have no more knowledge than anyone else but my guess would be October 1st - December 31st.

TheScreamingEagles

ThreeQuidder said:

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

That's democracy for you. A vote is a vote.

Well we're one all on EC/EU plebiscites.

Third one, winner takes all.

HurstLlama

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

It's a tricky one, Big_G. Do the Conservatives go for a novice or someone who has proved to be useless at actually getting things done? Do they go for someone whose leadership skills are untested or someone whose leadership skills are known to be awful?

I don't have a vote, few people on here do, for all we bump our gums. The 150,000 or so remaining Conservative party members carry a grave responsibility. I hope they choose wisely.

ThreeQuidder

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

That's democracy for you. A vote is a vote.

Well we're one all on EC/EU plebiscites.

Third one, winner takes all.

One vote for an economic community, one against political union.

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

Ain't going to happen comrade.

I think you sum yourself up perfectly by your reference to 'comrade'. This is going to happen otherwise democracy is lost, and I voted remain

rcs1000

John_M said:

ReggieCide said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

As far as pressure for clarity is concerned, it's the markets that matter not the EU. Delaying is our boat and the EU is in it with us, virtually powerless. Might it help us squeeze the EU? It's a poker call.

We're the ones that will be damaged by undue delay. We're dealing with intangibles; business & consumer confidence are incredibly important. We don't need investment delays or a consumer slump.

We need to help Germany to help us. They're on our side. Others less so.

That's right: if you're (say) Toyota and you're considering where in the EU to build a factory. Right now, the UK might be your preferred site. But, if we're going for CO, with WTO rules, then somewhere else gets the nod. Now, WTO rules aren't very likely... but would you make that call, and then get blindsided? No, delay would be your first instinct. And if we (the UK) don't make up our mind where we're going, you'll look for alternatives.

MontyHall

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

That's democracy for you. A vote is a vote.

Well we're one all on EC/EU plebiscites.

Third one, winner takes all.

in 2057?

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

I have no more knowledge than anyone else but my guess would be October 1st - December 31st.

I think if EFTA/EEA is the destination, it can and should be done very quickly. It's much more of an issue with something more customised, because the government wouldn't want to pull the trigger until the outline of a deal is in place.

Big_G_NorthWales

HurstLlama said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

It's a tricky one, Big_G. Do the Conservatives go for a novice or someone who has proved to be useless at actually getting things done? Do they go for someone whose leadership skills are untested or someone whose leadership skills are known to be awful?

I don't have a vote, few people on here do, for all we bump our gums. The 150,000 or so remaining Conservative party members carry a grave responsibility. I hope they choose wisely.

I have a vote and it will be for Theresa, as I expect the majority of members will

Luckyguy1983

FPT

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

malcolmg said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Europe seems to be in perpetual economic limbo with the woes of the Eurozone. They have a £100bn surplus at stake in their dealings with the UK. The German car industry is playing with over 20% of it's exports.

Did you know that, even if the Eurozone exports to the UK fell to zero, it would still run a current account surplus.

They are still in bother and £100 Billion of Tat not going out would cause quite a few issues methinks. Given most of it will be from Germany and France.

Remind me, what does Scotland export that is not black and sticky?

Scotch whisky accounts for around a quarter of all British food exports.

No idea what the value of oil exports is these days but Scotch whisky exports are worth just under £4 billion a year. That is one very important industry.

And growing all the time. Production isn't labour intensive enough to support huge amounts of jobs though. There are plenty of ancillary jobs however.

Which are, sadly, mainly in London. I would not be surprised if more Income Tax is paid in Brent with regards to the Scots Whisky industry than is paid in the whole of Scotland. Of course all that Income Tax is classed by the Treasury as "London Region".

Scotch whisky industry.

And I strongly doubt it.

I would be rather sadder about the degree of foreign ownership - in your brain obviously UK is foreign, but we share a tax base. The majority of the industry is owned by the likes of LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Barcardi, Beam Suntory etc., with more going as we write. A sign of success, yes, but still profits not flowing back into Scotland.

nunu

tyson said:

nunu said:

How would people on here feel about corporation tax in Britain falling below Ireland's? Say if it was revenue neutral in the short term by closing loopholes but raised say an extra few billion in the short term. The chancellor is planning cutting below 15%.

I don't think courting the opinion of people posting on here is going to present you with a sensible answer.

QED



(Joking)

ReggieCide

John_M said:

ReggieCide said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

As far as pressure for clarity is concerned, it's the markets that matter not the EU. Delaying is our boat and the EU is in it with us, virtually powerless. Might it help us squeeze the EU? It's a poker call.

We're the ones that will be damaged by undue delay. We're dealing with intangibles; business & consumer confidence are incredibly important. We don't need investment delays or a consumer slump.

We need to help Germany to help us. They're on our side. Others less so.

I don't think we're disagreeing. It's a poker game but the risks look different viewed from the City compared to most of the rest of the country, which won't care if a few (or preferably many) bankers get their comeuppance. I spent a career in the City, I understand how much national income it generates and I understand why the mistrust of the City is often not unjustified.

Luckyguy1983

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

Ain't going to happen comrade.

Yawn.

tyson

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

John_M

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

ReggieCide said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

As far as pressure for clarity is concerned, it's the markets that matter not the EU. Delaying is our boat and the EU is in it with us, virtually powerless. Might it help us squeeze the EU? It's a poker call.

We're the ones that will be damaged by undue delay. We're dealing with intangibles; business & consumer confidence are incredibly important. We don't need investment delays or a consumer slump.

We need to help Germany to help us. They're on our side. Others less so.

That's right: if you're (say) Toyota and you're considering where in the EU to build a factory. Right now, the UK might be your preferred site. But, if we're going for CO, with WTO rules, then somewhere else gets the nod. Now, WTO rules aren't very likely... but would you make that call, and then get blindsided? No, delay would be your first instinct. And if we (the UK) don't make up our mind where we're going, you'll look for alternatives.

I've got a real world example. In late 2015 Land Rover announced it was building a new factory in Slovakia. It won't begin production until 2018, but they now have choices in terms of which locations to prioritise during their next investment cycle.

WTO MFN EU tariffs are 10% on motor vehicles. As the Dacia ad has it 'You do the maths'.

AlastairMeeks

There's also a Betfair market.

Lowlander

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

malcolmg said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Europe seems to be in perpetual economic limbo with the woes of the Eurozone. They have a £100bn surplus at stake in their dealings with the UK. The German car industry is playing with over 20% of it's exports.

Did you know that, even if the Eurozone exports to the UK fell to zero, it would still run a current account surplus.

They are still in bother and £100 Billion of Tat not going out would cause quite a few issues methinks. Given most of it will be from Germany and France.

Remind me, what does Scotland export that is not black and sticky?

Scotch whisky accounts for around a quarter of all British food exports.

No idea what the value of oil exports is these days but Scotch whisky exports are worth just under £4 billion a year. That is one very important industry.

And growing all the time. Production isn't labour intensive enough to support huge amounts of jobs though. There are plenty of ancillary jobs however.

Which are, sadly, mainly in London. I would not be surprised if more Income Tax is paid in Brent with regards to the Scots Whisky industry than is paid in the whole of Scotland. Of course all that Income Tax is classed by the Treasury as "London Region".

Scotch whisky industry.

And I strongly doubt it.

I would be rather sadder about the degree of foreign ownership - in your brain obviously UK is foreign, but we share a tax base. The majority of the industry is owned by the likes of LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Barcardi, Beam Suntory etc., with more going as we write. A sign of success, yes, but still profits not flowing back into Scotland.

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

chestnut

16/1 in Q4 of 2017 looks good value. Why?

Fits nicely into the European election cycle and our dissolution of the current parliament after a two year negotiation.

What's the point of negotiating with Hollande? He'll be unemployed in spring 2017.

Luckyguy1983

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

malcolmg said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Europe seems to be in perpetual economic limbo with the woes of the Eurozone. They have a £100bn surplus at stake in their dealings with the UK. The German car industry is playing with over 20% of it's exports.

Did you know that, even if the Eurozone exports to the UK fell to zero, it would still run a current account surplus.

They are still in bother and £100 Billion of Tat not going out would cause quite a few issues methinks. Given most of it will be from Germany and France.

Remind me, what does Scotland export that is not black and sticky?

Scotch whisky accounts for around a quarter of all British food exports.

No idea what the value of oil exports is these days but Scotch whisky exports are worth just under £4 billion a year. That is one very important industry.

And growing all the time. Production isn't labour intensive enough to support huge amounts of jobs though. There are plenty of ancillary jobs however.

Which are, sadly, mainly in London. I would not be surprised if more Income Tax is paid in Brent with regards to the Scots Whisky industry than is paid in the whole of Scotland. Of course all that Income Tax is classed by the Treasury as "London Region".

Scotch whisky industry.

And I strongly doubt it.

I would be rather sadder about the degree of foreign ownership - in your brain obviously UK is foreign, but we share a tax base. The majority of the industry is owned by the likes of LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Barcardi, Beam Suntory etc., with more going as we write. A sign of success, yes, but still profits not flowing back into Scotland.

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

BenRiach/Glenglassaugh has just been sold to a US company - you were saying?

HaroldO

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

Utter piffle. He never analyses costs (because they don't benefit his argument) and his figures are a nonsense because it is impossible to give a reasonable accurate figure for Scottish revenue post Independence based on the current fiscal framework (not least because we don't know what the negotiated settlement would be). All he does is give an indicative number for the current fiscal framework and gives no justification as to why it would exist post independence.

There is absolutely no account given for the complexity and no attempt to analyse the complexity of the true revenue figures on chokkablog. This is not surprising because the reality is that it would be extremely difficult and expensive to do so and lots of the adjustments made for the current fiscal framework would be different under Independence.

He analysed the whole of Gers, link here;

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/the-price-of-independence.html

and at the end;
"None of this is to suggest that Scotland couldn’t be an independent country or that raw economics should be the only consideration. But if we’re to be honest about the economic implications, it now seems clear that independence will only happen within our lifetimes if the majority of Scots are willing to vote to become considerably worse off, quite possibly for generations to come."

And yes, he says that it cannot be used to predict and independent Scotland fully because it is an analysis of the past and not the future but it is the closest set of figures we have to understand the Scottish government finances.

He goes through the revenue figures extensively, what figures are he missing for example if you disagree? So far you have been excessively vague.

Perhaps you can point me to where he adjusts revenue for tax differentials caused by head office effects (such as Diageo being HQed in London). Just as a starter.

So you are saying that HQ affects only affect Scotland negatively? Because that would be massively simplistic.
Also are you saying that the HQ would then move? Because if Scotland was independent then Diageo would still be in London and have their corporation tax charged in the rUK.
Also, what do you mean by tax differentials? Income tax, corp tax (which I assumed above) or other taxes?

Don't get me wrong, I in know way am saying GERs is written in stone but it is the closest we have to an accurate picture.

ThreeQuidder

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

You did well against Germany, except for the penalties.

John_M

One advantage of losing to Iceland, it saved us from being completely humiliated by France.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

There's also a Betfair market.

D'oh missed that.

Thanks.

Big_G_NorthWales

ThreeQuidder said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

You did well against Germany, except for the penalties.

Did you notice the two Man Utd players missed their penalties. Both on their way hopefully

No_Offence_Alan

I can't see it being any later than 2017. The government will want it all to be concluded by the GE 2020. Can't risk changing negotiatiors half way through.

HaroldO

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FPT

Lowlander said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

malcolmg said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

Europe seems to be in perpetual economic limbo with the woes of the Eurozone. They have a £100bn surplus at stake in their dealings with the UK. The German car industry is playing with over 20% of it's exports.

Did you know that, even if the Eurozone exports to the UK fell to zero, it would still run a current account surplus.

They are still in bother and £100 Billion of Tat not going out would cause quite a few issues methinks. Given most of it will be from Germany and France.

Remind me, what does Scotland export that is not black and sticky?

Scotch whisky accounts for around a quarter of all British food exports.

No idea what the value of oil exports is these days but Scotch whisky exports are worth just under £4 billion a year. That is one very important industry.

And growing all the time. Production isn't labour intensive enough to support huge amounts of jobs though. There are plenty of ancillary jobs however.

Which are, sadly, mainly in London. I would not be surprised if more Income Tax is paid in Brent with regards to the Scots Whisky industry than is paid in the whole of Scotland. Of course all that Income Tax is classed by the Treasury as "London Region".

Scotch whisky industry.

And I strongly doubt it.

I would be rather sadder about the degree of foreign ownership - in your brain obviously UK is foreign, but we share a tax base. The majority of the industry is owned by the likes of LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Barcardi, Beam Suntory etc., with more going as we write. A sign of success, yes, but still profits not flowing back into Scotland.

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

Whiskey is strategic? Good luck explaining that to the EU.

Moses_

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

Unlikely ......you were knocked out by Germany last night were you not?


Edit - ha! I see Threequidder beat me to it.

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

williamglenn

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

Lowlander

Luckyguy1983 said:

Lowlander said:

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

BenRiach/Glenglassaugh has just been sold to a US company - you were saying?

Maybe you misunderstood my post?

No other country on earth (with the possible exception of the United States) would allow their major strategic industries to be sold to foreign owners.

The only reason the United States has been a historic example is because I don't think they considered it a potential issue. As their relative economic strength changes, I think even the United States will join other countries in blocking foreign ownership of such industries.

This isn't just a problem for Scotland (Independent or not) it is a problem England will increasingly feel the fallout from.

HurstLlama

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HurstLlama said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

It's a tricky one, Big_G. Do the Conservatives go for a novice or someone who has proved to be useless at actually getting things done? Do they go for someone whose leadership skills are untested or someone whose leadership skills are known to be awful?

I don't have a vote, few people on here do, for all we bump our gums. The 150,000 or so remaining Conservative party members carry a grave responsibility. I hope they choose wisely.

I have a vote and it will be for Theresa, as I expect the majority of members will

Fair enough Mr. G., and I expect you are correct about the majority of members. I am less convinced that it is the wise choice.

As my son said to me yesterday, if you never do anything you will never make a mistake and can sell yourself as a safe pair of hands. I happen to think that Theresa May will be an a dreadful prime minister, quite possibly in the Gordon Brown mould - she seems to share some character traits with him (a desire to micromanage, an inability to lead a team, and less charisma that one of Mr Dancer's haddocks).

However, like 99.something percent of the population I don't get a say on who the next prime minister will be. We just have to hope you and your fellow members get it right.

philiph

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

Whoever is PM, they will be a novice.

Luckyguy1983

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

Not this one. But I don't think Leadsom would rule anything out in a hasty fashion.

Big_G_NorthWales

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

philiph

Richard_Tyndall said:

I have no more knowledge than anyone else but my guess would be October 1st - December 31st.

How about on the birthday of Nicola Sturgeon?

rcs1000

Lowlander said:

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

Two points:

Firstly, the ultimate beneficial ownership will be incredibly geographically diverse. If you, as a Scot, wants to own a bit of the whisky industry, you'll find that all you have to do is buy a share of Diageo or LVMH. The real economic owners, then, of Scottish whisky are pensioners and savers around the world.

Secondly, this was an incredibly fragmented industry and none of the individual purchases meant very much. Are you really planning on stopping a 25m quid purchase of a distillery in Campbelltown? If so, look forward to no-one making an investments in Scotland. If the government is micromanaging the economy, no good will come of it.

tyson

Moses_ said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

Unlikely ......you were knocked out by Germany last night were you not?

As much as Brexit wounded me, it did not sadly (because I wish it had) lessen my disappointment at the English team performance.

Please......poor Iceland

HaroldO

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

My old Grandad used to happily sing along when we watched the rugby, he wasn't always sure what day it is by the end but he remembered every word and sang it with gusto.

TheScreamingEagles

France going all Scipio Africanus vs Hannibal on Iceland.

I'm glad we lost to Iceland, nothing more embarrassing than receiving a shellacking from Les Grenouilles

rcs1000

SeanT said:

It will be Theresa May, and, when her ducks are in a row, judging by her remarks today, she will go for EEA plus *qualified* Free Movement, using the 3m EU citizens in the UK as pawns

Cruel realpolitik means she has a decent chance of victory.

I expect triggering in the first quarter of 2017. I also have no effing idea. But that's my guess.

I fear that the EU-bods will play hardball: so, Prime Minister May, you plan to send German investment bankers back to Frankfurt so we can collect their tax, while you get the old and the infirm back in return?

Jobabob

I reckon Article 50 is a bit of a fool's market - rather like the Labour leader market. Just too many balls up in the air to make any forecast worthwhile.

anotherDave

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I have no more knowledge than anyone else but my guess would be October 1st - December 31st.

I think if EFTA/EEA is the destination, it can and should be done very quickly. It's much more of an issue with something more customised, because the government wouldn't want to pull the trigger until the outline of a deal is in place.

Doesn't placating Ms Sturgeon push EFTA/EEA to the likely option?

I still don't think free movement will fly. Hannan and Leadsom both described something along the lines of work visas.

Syed Kamall also seems to think free movement is negotiable:
"...British or EU expats concerned about the extra red tape already know that even EU free movement is not entirely free. EU migrants must either have a job or the ability to finance themselves, and in many countries they must register for ID cards, have medical insurance and so on. This agreement will be one of the most politically and technically sensitive areas to negotiate but I believe it to be the solution that most closely respects the outcome of the referendum."

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/07/syed-kamall-with-self-belief-and-hard-work-we-can-make-the-most-of-leaving-the-eu.html

Lowlander

HaroldO said:

So you are saying that HQ affects only affect Scotland negatively? Because that would be massively simplistic.
Also are you saying that the HQ would then move? Because if Scotland was independent then Diageo would still be in London and have their corporation tax charged in the rUK.
Also, what do you mean by tax differentials? Income tax, corp tax (which I assumed above) or other taxes?

Don't get me wrong, I in know way am saying GERs is written in stone but it is the closest we have to an accurate picture.

In the UK, London has a disproportionate share of head offices and it effects every region (not just Scotland). Diageo is merely a very obvious example. Yes there are counter-examples such as SSE but I think it is hard to argue that overall, the tax differential is not in London's favour. As I said previously, I don't expect big effects, but some effect and negatively to Scotland.

Even if Diageo retained their HQ in London, a tax border between England and Scotland would require them to declare earnings in Scotland for which they would pay Corp Tax.

You are right that GERS is the best measure we have. But it is an incredibly poor model even for measuring the current fiscal framework. It is an exceptionally poor model for predicting the fiscal position of an Independent Scotland.

foxinsoxuk

Iceland spared our blushes.

We would have been 4 nil down by now...

Jobabob

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

anotherDave

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

I would. For sure. It would be insanity. Once A50 is triggered, we become beggars.

We can trigger it when we like (although the markets will pressure us). The obvious solution is to line up a deal beforehand (fuck Juncker, talk to Merkel, Hollande, directly), then trigger, and get EEA sewn up in months.

Minimum disruption to the City and the economy. Clear win. And we're out of the EU and can then, at our leisure, pursue our freedoms around the world.

We will take an economic hit, but it won't be massive, is my guess

Triggering A50 now, with no idea of where we're going, would be catastrophic.

Tosh. You're going to fall in love with Leadsom in the first few weeks.

TheScreamingEagles

@JBcommentator: Just trying to come to terms with Roy Hodgson saying he fancied England to beat France had they beaten Iceland....Let's all think about that

PeterC

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

Ain't going to happen comrade.

I think you sum yourself up perfectly by your reference to 'comrade'. This is going to happen otherwise democracy is lost, and I voted remain

You are right - and sooner rather than later. To leave A50 up in the air indefinitely would shred anything left of goodwill towards us. The 27 are apoplectic as it is already.

HaroldO

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

So you are saying that HQ affects only affect Scotland negatively? Because that would be massively simplistic.
Also are you saying that the HQ would then move? Because if Scotland was independent then Diageo would still be in London and have their corporation tax charged in the rUK.
Also, what do you mean by tax differentials? Income tax, corp tax (which I assumed above) or other taxes?

Don't get me wrong, I in know way am saying GERs is written in stone but it is the closest we have to an accurate picture.

In the UK, London has a disproportionate share of head offices and it effects every region (not just Scotland). Diageo is merely a very obvious example. Yes there are counter-examples such as SSE but I think it is hard to argue that overall, the tax differential is not in London's favour. As I said previously, I don't expect big effects, but some effect and negatively to Scotland.

Even if Diageo retained their HQ in London, a tax border between England and Scotland would require them to declare earnings in Scotland for which they would pay Corp Tax.

You are right that GERS is the best measure we have. But it is an incredibly poor model even for measuring the current fiscal framework. It is an exceptionally poor model for predicting the fiscal position of an Independent Scotland.

But that would be true in the future, the HQ's wouldn't move they would stay put.

Eh? So Scotland would charge corp tax on earnings rather than profit now? Erm, good luck with getting any international firms to produce in Scotland after that.

I think it is the model of best fit for now, but not a great predictor. But even if it is a certain % out it clearly shows an iScotland would be in a lot of trouble in the short to medium term.

HurstLlama

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

Speaking for myself and not seeking to generalise, I would not see any reason to regret my decision. However, I weighed up the risks and possible consequences before voting to leave.

TheWhiteRabbit

SeanT said:

I'm also drunk.

First categorically true statement since Brexit.

tyson

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

I think you are right on that one (both tingle the hairs on the back of my neck), though the Italian anthem is lyrical, joyous and fun. And the Star Spangled Banner deserves a mention.

Sadly, the Northern Irish Anthem is utterly dire.

PlatoSaid

HurstLlama said:

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

Speaking for myself and not seeking to generalise, I would not see any reason to regret my decision. However, I weighed up the risks and possible consequences before voting to leave.

Me neither.

TwistedFireStopper

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

I doubt we'd be 4 nil down at this stage. As shit as we were against Iceland, we do tend to at least turn up against the big sides.

Jobabob

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

I think you are right on that one (both tingle the hairs on the back of my neck), though the Italian anthem is lyrical, joyous and fun. And the Star Spangled Banner deserves a mention.

Sadly, the Northern Irish Anthem is utterly dire.

Is it The Londonderry Air (Oh Danny Boy)?

surbiton

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

It will be Theresa May, and, when her ducks are in a row, judging by her remarks today, she will go for EEA plus *qualified* Free Movement, using the 3m EU citizens in the UK as pawns

Cruel realpolitik means she has a decent chance of victory.

I expect triggering in the first quarter of 2017. I also have no effing idea. But that's my guess.

I fear that the EU-bods will play hardball: so, Prime Minister May, you plan to send German investment bankers back to Frankfurt so we can collect their tax, while you get the old and the infirm back in return?

What happens to the 200,000 odd retirees in Spain, Portugal etc ? They clearly bring money into the country [ their pensions ].

Who pays for their health costs now ? Can they become EU citizens ?

Paristonda

I am now glad we lost to Iceland, if we had been up against France I don't think I would be able to look my girlfriend in the eye, let alone show my face at the office tomorrow. Wales or France to win this now please! Sadly I have a feeling Wales will get unlucky against Portugal, who seem to have coasted through this tournament so far.

John_M

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

I would. For sure. It would be insanity. Once A50 is triggered, we become beggars.

We can trigger it when we like (although the markets will pressure us). The obvious solution is to line up a deal beforehand (fuck Juncker, talk to Merkel, Hollande, directly), then trigger, and get EEA sewn up in months.

Minimum disruption to the City and the economy. Clear win. And we're out of the EU and can then, at our leisure, pursue our freedoms around the world.

We will take an economic hit, but it won't be massive, is my guess

Triggering A50 now, with no idea of where we're going, would be catastrophic.

If the Der Spiegel article I linked earlier is correct, we're going to be dealing with the council, not the commission. There's clearly a huge power struggle going on along multiple axes.

WTO isn't necessarily a disaster, but negotiating FTAs from a standing start AND from a position of weakness would be challenging.

Germany keeps talking about 'associate member'. It's not clear to me what that means. It'll come out in informal talks.

Big_G_NorthWales

HurstLlama said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HurstLlama said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The triggering of article 50 will, at the very least, be a cabinet decision and in view of the differing opinions, I cannot see Andrea Leadsom, in the unlikely event of her becoming PM, being able to trigger it on election to the post. I cannot see it happening before January 2017 and probably later.

It will be interesting to see if the HOC demand a say and how they formulate that.

This is one of the reasons I think a Brexiteer as PM could well have a negative impact on the process and that Theresa May would have much more of a chance of carrying the Country with her.

As has been said before 'this is no time for a novice'

It's a tricky one, Big_G. Do the Conservatives go for a novice or someone who has proved to be useless at actually getting things done? Do they go for someone whose leadership skills are untested or someone whose leadership skills are known to be awful?

I don't have a vote, few people on here do, for all we bump our gums. The 150,000 or so remaining Conservative party members carry a grave responsibility. I hope they choose wisely.

I have a vote and it will be for Theresa, as I expect the majority of members will

Fair enough Mr. G., and I expect you are correct about the majority of members. I am less convinced that it is the wise choice.

As my son said to me yesterday, if you never do anything you will never make a mistake and can sell yourself as a safe pair of hands. I happen to think that Theresa May will be an a dreadful prime minister, quite possibly in the Gordon Brown mould - she seems to share some character traits with him (a desire to micromanage, an inability to lead a team, and less charisma that one of Mr Dancer's haddocks).

However, like 99.something percent of the population I don't get a say on who the next prime minister will be. We just have to hope you and your fellow members get it right.

She has a good background and anyone who can survive the Home Office for 6 years has a record to be proud of. The fact she couldn't reduce immigration was due to the free movement rules which must now be addressed, and she will.

I read an article today comparing her with Merkel, in as much as they both have no children, make no great fuss, but get on in an efficient and practical manner in addressing problems. The article went on to say that they would get on well as the trade interests of both Countries is immense.

It also went on to say that Merkel will see Juncker goes next year as his pleasure at UK going out has been badly received in the EU and is totally unacceptable

Lowlander

rcs1000 said:

Lowlander said:

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

Two points:

Firstly, the ultimate beneficial ownership will be incredibly geographically diverse. If you, as a Scot, wants to own a bit of the whisky industry, you'll find that all you have to do is buy a share of Diageo or LVMH. The real economic owners, then, of Scottish whisky are pensioners and savers around the world.

Secondly, this was an incredibly fragmented industry and none of the individual purchases meant very much. Are you really planning on stopping a 25m quid purchase of a distillery in Campbelltown? If so, look forward to no-one making an investments in Scotland. If the government is micromanaging the economy, no good will come of it.

Much of the conglomeration was done by United Distillers which, as a Scottish company, would have been reasonable and happened in France (its the basis of Pernaud Ricard after all and LMVH grew similarly). The French government would never have allowed Pernaud of LMVH to have been taken over by a non-French owner.

Yes, I understand the theory of share ownership but there are other considerations for government. For example, the higher tax revenues from head office functions, greater control over the final payment of Corp Tax and "beneficial" oversight in general.

Come on, admit it. You wish Cadbury had never been bought by Kraft?

rcs1000

SeanT said:

if anyone is feeling a bit blue, I had my first sex since Brexit today, with my new experimental physicist GF, and it really helped. I recommend.

Sexit for Brexit?

I'll riskit for a Swisskit.

I'm also drunk.

Congratulations. I too like nothing more than post on Politicalbetting after sex. That probably explains why I post so often.

Mortimer

Why on earth would Leadsom say something so silly? Was it to distract from today's pretty dire headlines for her?

tyson

Jobabob said:

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

I think you are right on that one (both tingle the hairs on the back of my neck), though the Italian anthem is lyrical, joyous and fun. And the Star Spangled Banner deserves a mention.

Sadly, the Northern Irish Anthem is utterly dire.

Is it The Londonderry Air (Oh Danny Boy)?

No..I wish it was Oh Danny Boy. It is something appallingly awful which is almost unmentionable.

John_M

Mortimer said:

Why on earth would Leadsom say something so silly? Was it to distract from today's pretty dire headlines for her?

Honestly, I think she's going for the Clarkson-style 'I'm considerably more Britexier than yow'.

ReggieCide

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

It will be Theresa May, and, when her ducks are in a row, judging by her remarks today, she will go for EEA plus *qualified* Free Movement, using the 3m EU citizens in the UK as pawns

Cruel realpolitik means she has a decent chance of victory.

I expect triggering in the first quarter of 2017. I also have no effing idea. But that's my guess.

I fear that the EU-bods will play hardball: so, Prime Minister May, you plan to send German investment bankers back to Frankfurt so we can collect their tax, while you get the old and the infirm back in return?

And they get to spend their pensions in the UK. Bowls club memberships will boom.

TheScreamingEagles

Mortimer said:

Why on earth would Leadsom say something so silly? Was it to distract from today's pretty dire headlines for her?

Because she's overrated and not very good.

Just look at her record at Barclays and the loan she gave Barings.

No wonder Kippers, Arron Banks, and Leave.eu are backing her

HYUFD

SeanT said:

It will be Theresa May, and, when her ducks are in a row, judging by her remarks today, she will go for EEA plus *qualified* Free Movement, using the 3m EU citizens in the UK as pawns

Cruel realpolitik means she has a decent chance of victory.

I expect triggering in the first quarter of 2017. I also have no effing idea. But that's my guess.

ICM's Sun poll today had 67% of voters thinking the most important task for the next PM is to steady the economy compared to just 28% who think the most important task is to tackle immigration. That suggests an EEA deal would have a comfortable majority of voters supporting it with a minority of dissenters perhaps heading off to UKIP
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1381284/theresa-mays-winning-high-stakes-gamble-as-60-of-tories-say-she-should-be-the-next-pm/

matt

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

if anyone is feeling a bit blue, I had my first sex since Brexit today, with my new experimental physicist GF, and it really helped. I recommend.

Sexit for Brexit?

I'll riskit for a Swisskit.

I'm also drunk.

Congratulations. I too like nothing more than post on Politicalbetting after sex. That probably explains why I post so often.

Does single handed sex count then?

John_M

williamglenn said:

If Leadsom becomes PM and immediately triggers Article 50 and rules out EFTA, will any of the Leavers on here regret their enthusiasm for Brexit?

If Leadsom just wants straight WTO, I will be moving to France, changing my identity and posting on here as Remainy McRemain.

tyson

@seanT- post coital postings
So...we are going to intern all our foreign workers and use them as some kind of human shield to blackmail the EU.
Sounds like a good plan, although it didn't work for Saddam.

MarqueeMark

Iceland need the Knights of the Vale to turn up second half....

SirBenjamin

HurstLlama said:

I don't have a vote, few people on here do, for all we bump our gums. The 150,000 or so remaining Conservative party members carry a grave responsibility. I hope they choose wisely.

Oh we usually fuck it up badly. Whether us members get a vote or just the MPs and whatever rules we're playing by, we'll usually make a demonstrably wrong choice.

I'm just hoping that this time:

a) we've learned from repeated past mistakes; and
b) enough among the doggedly wrong have either left the house, left the party or died since the last time!

Big_G_NorthWales

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

Agree with France 2nd like next Wednesday

Lowlander

HaroldO said:

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

So you are saying that HQ affects only affect Scotland negatively? Because that would be massively simplistic.
Also are you saying that the HQ would then move? Because if Scotland was independent then Diageo would still be in London and have their corporation tax charged in the rUK.
Also, what do you mean by tax differentials? Income tax, corp tax (which I assumed above) or other taxes?

Don't get me wrong, I in know way am saying GERs is written in stone but it is the closest we have to an accurate picture.

In the UK, London has a disproportionate share of head offices and it effects every region (not just Scotland). Diageo is merely a very obvious example. Yes there are counter-examples such as SSE but I think it is hard to argue that overall, the tax differential is not in London's favour. As I said previously, I don't expect big effects, but some effect and negatively to Scotland.

Even if Diageo retained their HQ in London, a tax border between England and Scotland would require them to declare earnings in Scotland for which they would pay Corp Tax.

You are right that GERS is the best measure we have. But it is an incredibly poor model even for measuring the current fiscal framework. It is an exceptionally poor model for predicting the fiscal position of an Independent Scotland.

But that would be true in the future, the HQ's wouldn't move they would stay put.

Eh? So Scotland would charge corp tax on earnings rather than profit now? Erm, good luck with getting any international firms to produce in Scotland after that.

I think it is the model of best fit for now, but not a great predictor. But even if it is a certain % out it clearly shows an iScotland would be in a lot of trouble in the short to medium term.

No, it doesn;t show that Scotland would be in trouble if she were independent.

It still doesn't even touch the spending adjustments which are not only much larger but much easier to identify. £10bn on day one is pretty easy to expect, depending on how well Scotland uses its negotiating position (which is a lot stronger than you probably expect).

Jobabob

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

Agree with France 2nd like next Wednesday

You think Germany will beat them?

John_M

MarqueeMark said:

Iceland need the Knights of the Vale to turn up second half....

Even Wun Wun would do.

MarqueeMark

SeanT said:

if anyone is feeling a bit blue, I had my first sex since Brexit today, with my new experimental physicist GF, and it really helped. I recommend.

Sexit for Brexit?

I'll riskit for a Swisskit.

I'm also drunk.

Er - is the physics experimental, or the sex?

Scott_P

Be interesting to see if Leadsom changes her mind again...

@MrHarryCole: Leadsom Times interview from 2011, quick fire round: In or out of Europe?

"In"

https://t.co/VIQafPx6EN

tyson

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

Agree with France 2nd like next Wednesday

You think Germany will beat them?

Germany will beat France. They were awesome last night....better than the 7-1 against Brazil.

Last nights match Germany vs Italy was the match the final needed. Sadly, the rest of the competition will be a German walkover.

matt

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Why on earth would Leadsom say something so silly? Was it to distract from today's pretty dire headlines for her?

Because she's overrated and not very good.

Just look at her record at Barclays and the loan she gave Barings.

No wonder Kippers, Arron Banks, and Leave.eu are backing her

I have no idea whether your being fair re Barings - did the loan dox mean that there was no choice or was it a positive decision? I assume that she left BZW shortly after. However, to be an Oxfordshire councillor at the same time as working in the City in an apparently senior role suggests a not very taxing City job. I honestly don't know how that was squared away.

HurstLlama

@HaroldO

"... So Scotland would charge corp tax on earnings rather than profit ..."

It wouldn't be called Corporation Tax, of course, but that is actually a very good idea. It is simple to collect, hard to evade and chops the power of the multi-nationals (as well as their costs). The rate needs to be set at the right level to make it fair for both parties, but overall I think it a sound scheme. It is also not unheard of, until 1964 it was how companies were taxed in the UK.

Big_G_NorthWales

PeterC said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

anotherDave said:

There's going to be a lot of pressure from the EU for clarity on what/when the UK is doing. I don't think they could string it out till 2018.

I can't see Article 50 happening ever, sadly for you. There cannot be a mighty coalition of the mainstream politicians, business, the intelligentsia, the media and culture, London, the Scots on one side pitched against the great unwashed and some ideological notrights that mostly seem to post here. Looks to me to be an unfair fight.

Ain't going to happen comrade.

I think you sum yourself up perfectly by your reference to 'comrade'. This is going to happen otherwise democracy is lost, and I voted remain

You are right - and sooner rather than later. To leave A50 up in the air indefinitely would shred anything left of goodwill towards us. The 27 are apoplectic as it is already.

I am not worried about the EU. The more pressure they are under the more they will be forced to the table. Serving A50 too soon throws away our best pressure point

HaroldO

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

Lowlander said:

HaroldO said:

So you are saying that HQ affects only affect Scotland negatively? Because that would be massively simplistic.
Also are you saying that the HQ would then move? Because if Scotland was independent then Diageo would still be in London and have their corporation tax charged in the rUK.
Also, what do you mean by tax differentials? Income tax, corp tax (which I assumed above) or other taxes?

Don't get me wrong, I in know way am saying GERs is written in stone but it is the closest we have to an accurate picture.

In the UK, London has a disproportionate share of head offices and it effects every region (not just Scotland). Diageo is merely a very obvious example. Yes there are counter-examples such as SSE but I think it is hard to argue that overall, the tax differential is not in London's favour. As I said previously, I don't expect big effects, but some effect and negatively to Scotland.

Even if Diageo retained their HQ in London, a tax border between England and Scotland would require them to declare earnings in Scotland for which they would pay Corp Tax.

You are right that GERS is the best measure we have. But it is an incredibly poor model even for measuring the current fiscal framework. It is an exceptionally poor model for predicting the fiscal position of an Independent Scotland.

But that would be true in the future, the HQ's wouldn't move they would stay put.

Eh? So Scotland would charge corp tax on earnings rather than profit now? Erm, good luck with getting any international firms to produce in Scotland after that.

I think it is the model of best fit for now, but not a great predictor. But even if it is a certain % out it clearly shows an iScotland would be in a lot of trouble in the short to medium term.

No, it doesn;t show that Scotland would be in trouble if she were independent.

It still doesn't even touch the spending adjustments which are not only much larger but much easier to identify. £10bn on day one is pretty easy to expect, depending on how well Scotland uses its negotiating position (which is a lot stronger than you probably expect).

It really does, unless the figures are out by £5bn to Scotlands advantage.

Such as? Scotland will have no currency and no real reserves to create one, a massive customer in the rUK which it depends on exporting to, two rather large banks it cannot underwrite and a large budget deficit....strong eh?

TheScreamingEagles

matt said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Why on earth would Leadsom say something so silly? Was it to distract from today's pretty dire headlines for her?

Because she's overrated and not very good.

Just look at her record at Barclays and the loan she gave Barings.

No wonder Kippers, Arron Banks, and Leave.eu are backing her

I have no idea whether your being fair re Barings - did the loan dox mean that there was no choice or was it a positive decision? I assume that she left BZW shortly after. However, to be an Oxfordshire councillor at the same time as working in the City in an apparently senior role suggests a not very taxing City job. I honestly don't know how that was squared away.

See here,

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2009/08/andrea-leadsom-the-lessons-about-banking-regulation-which-we-must-stay-with-us-from-the-collapse-of.html

Miss Cyclefree wasn't impressed, and she knows her onions in this field.

foxinsoxuk

tyson said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jobabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tyson said:

Thank goodness we are not playing France.

No - just leave to our heroes on Wednesday

You are entitled to your positivity (comrade- he said timidly). The Belgium match ranks as one of the 3 best home country matches I have ever seen. 1996- England against Holland. 1978 Scotland vs Holland.

Your anthem touches the hairs on the back of my neck

Thanks Tyson. My late Father in Law from the Scotland always said it was the most stirring anthem. You should listen to my young grand children singing it in Welsh - it brings tears to the eyes. And yes I am sure you didn't really mean to address us as 'comrade'

The best national anthem in the world? It's a straight fight between France and Wales.

Could well be the final too.

Agree with France 2nd like next Wednesday

You think Germany will beat them?

Germany will beat France. They were awesome last night....better than the 7-1 against Brazil.

Last nights match Germany vs Italy was the match the final needed. Sadly, the rest of the competition will be a German walkover.

Yesterday was a masterclass in defending (if not in penalties). I fancy this French team to beat them, setting up a final with Wales.

MikeK

Lowlander said:

rcs1000 said:

Lowlander said:

That happened on Westminster's watch. The ownership structure of the industry was created before the Scottish Government even existed.

I can think of no other country in the world (with the possible exception of the United States) where major strategic industries would have been allowed into foreign ownership.

Two points:

Firstly, the ultimate beneficial ownership will be incredibly geographically diverse. If you, as a Scot, wants to own a bit of the whisky industry, you'll find that all you have to do is buy a share of Diageo or LVMH. The real economic owners, then, of Scottish whisky are pensioners and savers around the world.

Secondly, this was an incredibly fragmented industry and none of the individual purchases meant very much. Are you really planning on stopping a 25m quid purchase of a distillery in Campbelltown? If so, look forward to no-one making an investments in Scotland. If the government is micromanaging the economy, no good will come of it.

Much of the conglomeration was done by United Distillers which, as a Scottish company, would have been reasonable and happened in France (its the basis of Pernaud Ricard after all and LMVH grew similarly). The French government would never have allowed Pernaud of LMVH to have been taken over by a non-French owner.

Yes, I understand the theory of share ownership but there are other considerations for government. For example, the higher tax revenues from head office functions, greater control over the final payment of Corp Tax and "beneficial" oversight in general.

Come on, admit it. You wish Cadbury had never been bought by Kraft?

I certainly wish Cadbury had never been bought by Kraft, if only on matters of taste.