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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc
There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am.
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Yawn, and the equivalent position five years ago "would have given" the Tories a 200 seat majority.
Except it never came to pass. Funny that....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Is the man (a) slipping on the carpet, and falling in the style of tennis players, or (b) jumping over the TV in celebration? And why is the woman blubbing so much?
EDIT: Some Google-fu tells me that Robson didn't cry.
We should always take these extrapolations as "just a bit of fun" as they used to say on local election night broadcasts when the share of the votes nominally made the Compton Pauncefoot Ratepayers Party out to be poised for HM Loyal Opposition status in the Commons at the next GE.
The Greens got heavily squeezed in QLD elections last time by this tactic. People went straight to the Tories in QLD, missing out the other option in an attempt to avoid another minority government as per national 2010 election being a possibility. It would work at the national level too in UK too in my view, particularly under FPTP.
If debates are solely for PM then LD on polls of 8% have no more right than UKIP on the panel, so trying to nullify anyone who cannot be PM, used against Salmond despite having MP's is the way to go by both major parties.
This would stop Farage from splitting centre and right wing vote as well as Clegg or a new LD leader like Swinson, who in my view could hoover up the female and younger vote who may feel they have no other option than Tweedledum or Tweedledummer.
(This of course assumes she holds on in Scotland which after being seen as a Tory lackey may be difficult.)
Not being there on stage would confirm the wasted vote position to many people and avoid LD momentum from media coverage.
One debate with UKIP, LD's and main parties is perhaps justified to hear different policies and not just to decide who will be PM.
Labour Lead (change) who do you trust more on:
NHS +10 (-4)
Asylum/Immigration -11 (-1)
Laura Norder: -13 (-5)
Education +5 (-4)
Tax: -2 (-5)
Unemployment: +5 (-1)
Economy: -5 (-3)
Europe: -2 (-2)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2bbhy6ug9e/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-010713.pdf
Beware of the one-sided nature of the source:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169483#.UdJiwGKURIl
It would be interesting to see a Border Agency response to this.
http://www.kctv5.com/story/22509339/leawood-student-claims-he-was-racially-profiled-overseas
However The Border Agency's likely response will be that it "does not comment on individual cases"
Wait until the Mail gets hold of it and does a "compare and contrast" with some random passing hate preacher with a dusky complexion... or perhaps SeanT will beat them to it?
Edit - one f his complaints is about being photographed & finger printed - which of course happens to everyone entering the US!
But more significant is Labour appearing support the Tory changes. Tactically inept even if the changes were sound.
It looks like they have serious leadership problems which is bad timing when their best talent is working for a New York charity........
.....lets hope someone has a cunning plan
"The improvement in most key balances in our second-quarter survey supports our view that the UK upturn is slowly strengthening … The hope is slowly the economy moves up. Our last forecast was for growth just under 1% this year. I think we might be able to upgrade that," Kern said."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jul/02/bank-of-england-mark-carney-recovery
I took your point the other day that by accepting all the Tory plans now they were saving themselves the awkward questions nearer the election. It might have worked when the Tories did it with because they've always been an ideological backwater but Labour are a crusade or they're nothing and how are they supposed to attract disaffected Lib Dems by aping the Tories?
DM might not be the Messiah but he's a smart attractive and articulate politician
Maybe we'll see a dead heat in the polls before long - then it'll get interesting.
A couple of points are worthy of investigation: women doing fingerprinting should not be able to wear the burka as they do so, and the accusations of racist (or at very least silly) language to the father.
Labour hit 35% or so in all opinion polls as soon as the Coalition was formed. That's a hell of a bounce for a party that had just been defeated so heavily in a GE and may well be unprecedented in previous UK electoral cycles - I can't think of another example, that's for sure. For the last three years there has been little indication that Labour is going to dip below that 35%. And if it doesn't the chances of the Tories winning in 2015 are almost zero and the chances of Labour winning most seats are very high.
I agree that EdM is a poor leader. But he is the one that Labour has. That's not going to change at this stage. Those of us who want to see the Tories lose in 2015 just have to reconcile ourselves to that fact.
The best Labour leader would have been Alan Johnson. But he did not want the job.
The story is garbage. Provincial Jewish newspapers live off stories of anti semitism. There's a new line of Jewish jokes which specialize in the genre.
Or are you saying that it is impossible, and should be ignored?
"Or are you saying that it is impossible, and should be ignored?"
Yes of course
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cash-for-classrooms-michael-gove-plans-to-let-firms-run-schools-for-profit-8682395.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23141396
Bloody chinless boy fop wonder.
Not for no reason are other posters this morning (post BCC report) trying to sidetrack the conversation onto housing, hospitals and so forth.
It is a straight battle over the economy and the Tories are winning it.
Will they win the war? Increasingly looking like they will.
You were wrong about Rennard, weren't you?
EDIT: there are other sources which say Cantor was denied entry but they seem to derive from the new report. Perhaps he was.
The UKBA is part of the Home Office so perhaps Theresa May will be asked a question.
"So what other realms of public affairs do you extend this relaxed attitude to?"
The Kansas Jewish Chronicle is likely to be as reliable as your average Rag Mag. If we are to start investigating any far fetched nonsense from anyone with an angle we better get a Met police division onto Tapestry's blog
PS I was NOT wrong about Rennard. MODERATED
"The second YouGov poll in a row has LAB down to just 5pc"
LOL .... not even Ed is that bad !! .... and hopefully Nick Palmer didn't make the same mistake else we'll all be sending him get well cards at some excellently well funded NHS trust hospital !!
Titters ....
If we're going to do this with showy technology, we should be doing it with 21st century showy technology rather than 1980s showy technology.
A yes vote could mean a short parly in r Uk.
Any economic data out this week ?
It is clear, along with most mainstream politicians, Labour are nothing.
In any case it's very unlikely a government of any colour will cancel HS2.
"Where does power really lie in the Labour Party? ...The facts of the Falkirk case are frankly shocking. The selection process has been suspended after it emerged that Unite — Labour’s biggest financial backer — had paid for dozens of people to join the party ahead of the ballot to choose the candidate. This in itself is allowed under party rules (a bizarre anomaly). But, crucially, it is claimed that some of these new members had no idea that they had been signed up.
Batches of membership forms were sent to Labour headquarters, accompanied by a single Unite cheque. It is alleged that on at least one occasion just a list of names and addresses was submitted together with the combined subscription fees. When party staff raised concerns, they were reportedly told to process the applications — and backdate the membership so that the new activists could vote in the selection contest. With about 100 people added to an original membership of 200, this could clearly have influenced the outcome.
That is not all. A consultative survey, paid for by Unite, asking whether there should be an all-women shortlist, was abandoned over fears that not all local party members had received it. This raised suspicions because the union’s preferred candidate — Karie Murphy — was a woman. A leftwinger who called for a party when Lady Thatcher died, she is also said to be close to Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary. Although sources at the union dismiss the rumours that she is his girlfriend as “gossip”, it is certainly true that she works in the office of Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy chairman, who was once Mr McCluskey’s flat-mate. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/rachelsylvester/article3805229.ece
"It is clear, along with most mainstream politicians, Labour are nothing."
Don't be cynical. Those who only care about themselves and their families vote Tory. Those who only care about themselves vote UKIP.
It sets a target of recruiting 5,000 Unite members to Labour with a view to influencing selections. “This is emphatically not just a recruitment offensive to benefit the Labour Party with passive financial contributions,” the document states. “We are deadly serious about transforming Labour.” Revealingly, Mr McCluskey has begun writing to Labour politicians whom his union supports, addressing them as “Unite MPs”.
"This is not just about Falkirk. Unite is running a deliberate and carefully targeted campaign to get its preferred candidates selected all over the country. I’ve been sent the minutes of the union’s executive council meeting, dated December 3, 2012, which describe the drive in Falkirk as “exemplary”. The document boasts of six other candidate selections on which Unite has had a “direct impact” — in Peterborough, Norwich South, Harlow, Hastings, Tamworth, and Crewe and Nantwich. “This is not an exhaustive list of the better candidates,” the minutes note; but without the union’s work “Progress [the Blairite think-tank] or other right-wing candidates would have been selected.”
Local election successes enthuses the on-the-ground activists--which is more important for UKIP than the other parties, as there are fewer of us, and we are more disorganised.
I can't see how Farage could be excluded from all three TV debates, if his party had just won the Euro-elections. And if he were on just one, it would have to include Europe, and thus immigration. It might even be to his advantage to only appear when the discussion concentrates on our USP.
I don't really have a problem with unions or anyone else encouraging lots of people to join, unless they have a clear disagreement with the party and are seeking to overthrow the leadership (the Militant case). Obviously, though, only if they've agreed! I doubt if all the new members will in fact vote as a bloc - it's not my experience of union members.
These poor souls handicapped as they are with blame for the state of the economy, a leader of the most dubious capability and a set of (non) policies and U turns so bewilderingly woeful as to drive them all barking mad or take up farming in Cheshire.
Accordingly I propose that for an experimental period that OGH adopts "Ed is Crap Tuesday" where the first thread of the day is devoted to this new sport. No other Ed is totally useless thread will then be allowed for the remainder of the week. Thus by lancing the boil and evacuating the poison for one short period only it may be possible for PB lefties to maintain some level of political equilibrium and lead a more fulfilling life.
Huzzah for "Ed is Crap Tuesday"
"In all seriousness - I think this beautiful area of Sussex would be much more damaged by wind farms (and perhaps by expansion at Gatwick) than oil and gas production, which are relatively innocuous once the initial exploration and production drilling are complete."
On thread the problem the Eds have is that they lack a vision and they do not have an aura of competance (the opposite in fact).
They do not look like people who are able to cope with the difficult times we face.
There are times when its important to accept your Party has screwed up and this is one of them. The whole CLP has been put in Special Measures - a device IIRC which was introduced to stop Militant pulling the same stunt back in the 80s. Unite have a publicly available strategy which is clearly being delivered on the ground - perhaps you could apply for funding :^ )
You asked about inward investment into Spain: see this article about how Nissan (and others) are investing in ramping up car production in Spain - http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/28/business/spain-auto-soares
Labour has simply lost its way.
The early discussion thread for Germany is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/germany-early-discussion.html
Re Shale gas drilling in Sussex. As a man from North London, I am particularly keen on gas drilling south of the river.
However, you do underestimate the disruption from shale gas drilling. Most importantly, because shale gas has very high decline rates (up to 80% in the first year), you need to keep drilling to maintain production.
And because you need a lot of water and a lot of horsepower to do the 'fracturing', this means there will be a *lot* of trucks on site. This is a good time lapse video of a well being drilled and fracced: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_j7UkuzJTU
"Spanish unemployment has fallen again, for the fourth consecutive month.
Although the total number of people out of work remains high, there is relief that the data are continuing to head in the right direction, and at a better pace.
The number of people out of work and registered for benefits fell by 2.6 per cent in June month-on-month to 4.76m.
It was a reduction of 127,248 people, significantly stronger than the 83,000 forecast."
Betting PostBacked Li to beat Radwanska in straight sets at 2.7. In their last five meetings this year and in 2012 Li's won 4/5 2-0.
This suggests to me that it remains likely that if UKIP support falls further, which seems likely at least until the euros, the tories are likely to gain disproportionately.
The other concern for Labour would be the enthusiasm gap. The tories still have very high percentages who think their party has the best policies, Labour not so much, more around 70%.
One possible reason for this is that Labour supporters are as unclear as the rest of us about what Labour policy is. Another is that their vote is soft, with some choosing to support Labour simply as an anti tory vote without regard to the details of the alternative.
All mildly encouraging for the tories but pessimists would say that if Labour can have a lead of 5% without any comprehensible policies, with such inept leadership and such poor presentation of their arguments then their underlying position must be strong indeed. Hodges is being absurd as usual. It is all to play for.
And what if, finally, at last, people's living standards begin to improve; hardly a veritable feel good factor, but maybe a nascent, cautious mood of optimism.
Meanwhile, Labour are not carving a distinctive political niche for themselves; on the contrary, whether on the economy, education, even the NHS they are conceding the high ground to the government.
It could all change, of course it could, but you can understand the present spring in the step of us Blues.
However, agree, no reason to get excited.
It's generally the Tory party that panics in the face of poor polling (and get carried away in the event of good polling) while the PLP holds its nerve.
Labour will be UNITEd!
In the past I have been hardly a friend of the IDS and Howard years, the appalling leadership of Chat-Show Charlie and the disaster of Gordon Brown. I've also not spared the Coalition at times especially on defence policy.
However my dander is certainly up with the frankly rotten opposition that Labour is providing. The nation deserves so much better and do you really believe in your heart that Ed and co are a viable government in waiting ?
For me the Labour report card says "Fail. Must do much better."
The real question is can Labour win an election without Blair as their leader. They haven't for four decades. EdM and EdB will forever by be tarred with the Brown brush.
However, a safety-related question: it looks as though the wellhead is unprotected above ground and rather prone to collision from the side or below. I'd have expected it to be underground, or well-protected from careless drivers. Are there underground shut-off valves as well?
And with horizontal directional drilling, can they service several different areas from one drillhead or set of drillheads?
At the election, it would be a lot easy to defend why they overspent and assuring the public that lessons had been learned rather than continuing to argue that the level of spending was correct thereby inviting the assumption that they would do the same again in office.
By the time of the election, those spending decisions will be 6-8 years old and people will have forgotten the circumstances and Labour could say "yes, we got it wrong then but that was then and this is now and it won't happen again". That is an easier sell than "no, we were right to spend at those levels" when all polling shows the public's mind is made up that you got it wrong.
Labour should have grasped this nettle 2 years ago, is it too late to do so credibly now? I don't think so, and, if I was their strategist, in the face of overwhelming evidence that everything you have said on the economy is looking increasingly wrong (as the economy improves as a result of everything you have opposed) I would do it.
And sack Balls
Perhaps you meant that Labour have had a lead over the Conservatives. Frankly it would be a miracle if they didn't. The fact that it's down to 5% during mid-term, after further cuts have been announced, on top of already tough decisions taken (to undo the enormous damage your party did to this country, lest we forget), suggests he isn't exactly stellar.
A switch to a frugal spending party focussing on the genuinely poor and all hard working voters.
Instead they have morphed into the political wing of the public sector unions - trebles all round for the taxpayer funded workers and hell mend the rest.
http://joshuapundit.blogspot.com/2013/07/lets-kick-that-little-jew-out-of-britain.html
"Ed Miliband risks being out of touch with Labour voters and losing the election because of Europe, the party’s biggest private donor said last night.
John Mills told the Times CEO Summit that voters would be more willing to support the party if they thought it offered a choice on Europe. Mr Mills, the veteran businessman who chairs JML, the shopping channel, and gave the party £1.65 million in shares in January, is pushing the party to put a referendum on Britain’s membership in the next election.
“The Parliamentary Labour Party is pretty Europhile and the party is too,” Mr Mills said. “But the problem for the Labour Party is that the potential Labour voter is more Eurosceptic than the Labour Party itself. That’s a difficult dilemma that the leadership is going to have to wrestle with over the next few months.”
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3805273.ece
Should that investigation involve anything more than the senior officer on duty speaking to the individuals concerned and perhaps reviewing the paperwork and forming a judgement? No
Probably a good use of 2 hours of their day to check it out.
Nowhere - he should have been out front and centre banging on about what a waste of taxpayers money this was for these fat cats and how this could have meant tax cuts for low paid people.
But these luvvies are Labour luvvies - and Labour is nowhere.
For one thing, I doubt anyone working within secure areas of Heathrow would be allowed to wear a burka for security reasons.
Even if it hasn't reached the heights of 2007, the trend is definitely in the right direction - as I said back in mid January, it appears that there has been a very sudden change in confidence
Again he appears to be on the side of the wealthy and powerful lefties - not the ordinary voters.
Just about all you could do is catch up on email.
Labour must face up to the obvious challenge not that they were incompetent and irresponsible with the money (although true) but that they created this monster out of choice. And that they’d do it again if they could. They ARE the party of the public sector, of the trade unions, of wild spending and debts. To be trustable with the public finances they need to change who they are and who they represent. Labour is no more the party of the working class than it is of the landed gentry. It IS the party of the state, by the state for the state.
But what the UK desperately needs is for the state to be shrunk. To establish credible management of value for money in the public sector. For good regulation to stop rent seeking abuse at the top and at the bottom. Labour can’t do that. It’d be like asking the Muslim Brotherhood to deliver religious tolerance and freedoms across Egypt. Forget it.