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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Liverpool, Wavertree : A Historical Tale of Caution
Independents have had a remarkably successful run in the last few general elections. Despite the fact that both Dai Davies (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) and Dr.
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I also wonder how much the internet influences this, amplifying the voice of those who would have been roundly ignored and quickly forgotten in the past.
Also: come on Laura!
First, the Bank of England reports that approvals for mortgages on house purchases were at their highest for three years in May 2013, indicating a revival in the housing sales market spurred on by the Treasury's market support schemes.
Second, Markit reports that the UK's Manufacturing PMI has risen to 52.5, its highest level since the second quarter of 2011, with production and new orders up and intermediate stocks down all promising sustained recovery for the rest of this year.
Third, the day after Danny Alexander justified his long term investment plans on the Andrew Marr show by saying:
“What I’ve announced is our plans going out to 2020, providing precisely the sort of long-term certainty that investors in the private sector say that they need in order to gear up to deliver the sort of infrastructure this country needs.”,
up pops the Kuwait Investment Authority to announce that it intends to invest as much as $5 billion in infrastructure assets mainly in the UK in the next three to five years.
Enough to silence even tim.
The only reason to effectively disenfranchise the non-Labour supporting 42% would be to take a run at getting rid of Luciana Berger....
...hmmh... on second thoughts...
EDIT: Harry - just read the Echo story. LibDems not running a candidate (probably just trying to save money and effort). You may want to update the thread
Pressed on whose decision it was to make the donation in shares, Mr Mills said he did not have enough spare money to make a cash donation worth £1.65m and the conclusion came out of discussions with the party on the most effective way of ensuring a steady flow of support for Labour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23132225
So that's all right then. Presumably the same argument would apply if he was trying to buy a yacht costing £1.65m but didn't have enough spare cash to do so.
On topic: Yes, but... is this Jake Morrision chappie well-enough established to do serious damage to Labour? He looks about sixteen, which suggests not, but others may have a better insight.
Still - when a party stands for government knows best on an national level and doesn't trust the voters with a say on Europe it should be no surprise it doesn't trust local party members to pick candidates.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/209675/impact-private-rent-growth-housing-benefit-expenditure.pdf
If he has, his chances of electoral success may be enhanced.
So you could try to change the subject?
http://www.thisiskent.co.uk/UKIP-breakthrough-West-Kent-election-results/story-18881543-detail/story.html#axzz2XnmPfLhh
"UKIP has taken the Conservative seat of Tunbridge Wells East, the former seat of the highly popular Kevin Lynes, who died suddenly last year."
The very strong increase in mortgage applications we are now seeing suggests to me that the option of buying is becoming more available again and that the majority have worked out it is usually cheaper to do so if you can afford to pay the mortgage. This should take some pressure off the let sector but is unlikely to have such a significant effect as the change of entitlement in the short run.
Despite all the predictions of doom there is very little evidence to support the hypothesis of HB spiraling out of control.
Their March EFO will probably go down in history as one of the most inaccurate forecasts of economic performance by an independent body set up solely and wholly for the purpose of making economic forecasts.
I am convinced Robert Chote had his breakfast orange juices spiked at the Old Compton Street branch of Patisserie Valerie when preparing the figures.
"And, in a surprise development, the Lib Dems have said they will not field a candidate in order to give Cllr Morrison a clear run against Miss Berger."
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-councillor-jake-morrison-quits-4704016
If anyone knows what makes Wavertree tick, or the day to day lives of her constituents - its surely must be Sion Simon's former squeeze....
"With the economy entering 2013 with somewhat less momentum than we expected in December, a weaker outlook for consumer spending, business investment and exports has prompted us to revise down our near-term growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2014."
I can't help feeling that having been consistently over optimistic in it's first couple of years they were determined to be pessimistic this time in the slightly naive belief this would help their "credibility".
I think there are very good odds that their forecast for this year will be out by a factor of 3.
In this instance (as in Blaenau Gwent recently), the choice is between an official Labour candidate and what in effect is an Independent Labour candidate. While it's possible that the Independent may sweep up some of the anti-Labour votes, firstly, I don't think that this is the sort of Ind Lab that's likely to win anyway and secondly, the similarities in policy stance mean that it would be wrong to disenfranchise those voters who want to support a centre or centre-right party if the Lib Dems and Conservatives were to stand down.
As an aside, were the Yellows and Blues to leave the field in Wavertree, the prime beneficiaries may be the Purples rather than the differently Reds.
The facts show that HB spending has gone up. A forecast from the DWP says it may go down. A forecast from the OBR says that it will go up. We will have to see who is correct.
I've read a little about this in the Echo from time to time but there are a few differences from the other examples OGH quotes. Yes, she is 'posh totty' parachuted in from London but he's still only twenty, without a lot of experience in politics. The Peoples' Republic of Judea springs to mind but I suspect Ms Berger will still be MP in 2015.
Not sure there's any point, I doubt very much that Mr Morrisson has any appeal to Tory or Liberal voters, who would be disenfranchised if they were denied official candidates. Unlike Tatton there is no cross-party issue here. Just tactics.
If he had written "There has been speculation that..." I would agree with you
thank God! the British journalist.
But, seeing what the man will do
unbribed, there's no occasion to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humbert_Wolfe
'‘crisis just around the corner’.
New Labour's housing legacy.
'Table 1 below shows that the average eligible Private Sector1 rent for Housing
Benefit (HB) increased by 45% between 2000/01 and 2010/11. This means that
around £3 billion of HB expenditure in 2010/11 can be attributed to real private rent
growth over the previous ten years
For comparison, this is Yglesias on the US job reports. For example, he reckons that they understate employment when the economy is growing, because they get their data from a survey of companies, but when the economy is growing new companies are opening up, and they can't survey them yet because they don't know they exist.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/06/06/jobs_report_how_to_read_one.html
It does not mean that HB is falling per se, nor that the total number of claims is reducing. The Housing market would indicate that they are increasing as the number of people renting is increasing but that might be about to change.
Because of the rate at which it is changing my guess would be that the OBR have been as overly pessimistic about this as they were about growth but this document really does not help in that. It is simply a calculation of another part of the cost of electing Labour governments.
'Yes, she is 'posh totty' parachuted in from London'
Yes, a privately educated toff complete with personalized car number to make her feel important, delivered courtesy of the New Labour aristocracy.
I can accept crap journalism, thought, because I don't really care one way or another. Thought it was a cute way to save a bit of money and distraction though...
'If you ignore the lack of housebuilding before and after the last govt, yes it's solely a New Labour problem.'
Which other government was in power for 13 years,allowed 3-4 million immigrants to come into the country and preside over the worst social house building program since the second world war?.
'Genuine question: what changes did the last government make to housing benefit payments?'
Introduced a bedroom tax in the private sector rental market.
The source of growth this year is rather mysterious. Exports are not doing any better. The north sea continues to disappoint. Real earnings have been falling. The deficit is, at best, not a positive force. There is no evidence that QE is really working. Lending to business continues to fall month on month. The EZ continues to discourage investment.
But employment has continued to grow and the great British consumer seems to have had enough and cut their savings rate to very low levels. Hard to see that because it is partly an irrational response.
On balance I would prefer the OBR to be cautious and for surprises to be on the upside but it does have to be recognised that there is potential for policy errors on both sides of the balance.
Concerned of Bournemouth.
If I remember correctly, there was a lot of talk about Ricky Tomlinson standing against Berger at the last election. Had he gone through with it, I suspect he would have won.
Only a few weeks ago, I saw him opening the Clitheroe beer festival. Nice as it was, he could have been at the HoC supping for England
However, to make up for your disappointment I am more than willing to bet you that the average private sector eligible rent will grow less in real terms under the "housing benefit junkies" in the Tory party than it did in either of the last two terms of Labour.
That's slightly more related to the topic under discussion, dont you agree?
£50 at evens?
"The transition from the old housing benefit system to Local Housing Allowance significantly increased payments available for larger houses in some areas, as can be seen by comparing the Local Reference Rent calculated by the Valuation Office Agency, which served as the basis for determining the old housing benefit, against the current Local Housing Allowance. As an example, the Local Reference Rent for the largest type of house in the East Thames Valley locality in March 2009 was £328.85 per week, while the Local Housing Allowance for a similar property in the same area was £646.15 per week, an increase of £16,500 per year."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_Housing_Allowance
The "bedroom tax" is an attempt, arguably misguided, to try and recoup some of that. In 2008 there were further changes which introduced a bedroom tax into the private sector but also allowed a large range of what were called extended payments for which recipients could qualify in many areas.
What I would say was there biggest fault, however, is largely one of default. The 2002 regulations introduced broader area calculations for entitlements which reflected the going rate in an area rather than what the individual property was worth. This had the effect of driving up the rents in the poorer properties to the maximum level for that area, enormously increasing the cost to the tax payer. It also set a floor with the premium properties getting more from those not on benefits creating a new and higher floor. In effect the taxpayer ended up bidding against itself driving rents ever upwards.
This is why the changes which fixed HB at the bottom 30% in any area were so important, so much more important than this bedroom nonsense. This is taking the driver of public money out of rents and replacing it with a downward pressure instead. Not good for buy to let landlords, very good for the rest of us.
Whenever you make statements such as "before and after the last govt" or "both parties are to blame", suspicion wells up in my barometer of scepticism.
So off I go to the house build statistics to see what you are failing to mention. And look what I find: So the Coalition Government in its first year in office has started more local government builds than the previous Labour governments did in their entire thirteen years in office.
So now I know. That is what tim means by "both parties are to blame" for the housing shortage problem.
Still, I trust all of pbc will be relieved to hear that your references to housing benefit junkies actually refer to all parties (even if it looks more appropriate to Labour than the others).
So please do not be showing him how that very same housebuilding policy is in fact being enacted by the arch-enemy.
In any event these are really derisory numbers of houses given the need which is his main point and with which I agree, even if I disagree about how to address it.
-The Labour Govt was spending more than 40% GDP total pre-crash, as long as you ignore the fact that they were spending 40% GDP and make up some numbers instead.
-The housing benefit bill is coming down, as long as you ignore the fact that the housing benefit bill is going up.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/housing-benefit-and-council-tax-benefit-caseload-statistics-published-from-november-2008-to-present
Having said that, I was expecting the number of post crisis housing starts under Labour to be higher than they were given the completions total in 2010.
About half the number are coming from Scotland (1,440 in 2010 compared to 3,110 total). No starts in NI and minimal activity in Wales (20). [3,110 vs, 3,090 is a difference arising from dates of the source documents].
We are talking small numbers because the share of Local Authority builds is tiny, under 1% of all new build starts between 1996 and 2010.Housing Association builds in the same period varied from just over 9.0% to just over 22%, averaging 14% or around 25,500 per year.
Private Enterprise builds in the same period varied between just over 77% to just over 90%, averaging 85% or 160,000 dwellings.
Peak build for all tenures was 226,420 in 2007 and trough was 141,920 in 2010. House building in the last sixty years peaked in 1968 at 425,830 (53% Private Enterprise, 4% Housing Association, 43% Local Government].
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/david-cameron-hasnt-spoken-about-climate-change-three-years-time-running-out
I wonder why she left it in London?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257810/The-numbers-Labour-candidates-working-class-credentials-hit-buys-5-000-numberplate.html
Basically Labour were relying almost wholly on Private Enterprise to supply new builds (90.6% of total in 2003 was peak, 77.3% in 2009 was trough). The fall in private sector builds from 2007 to 2010 was near 50%, from 198,480 to 106,060.
[Note: these figures are completions rather than starts].
What you would have learnt, had you been paying attention, is that you need to ensure that figures are normalised if you want to make an objective and helpful assessment of the economic situation.
If GDP falls by 8% because it wasn't sustainable, but the size of the government share of the economy doesn't fall, then it is misleading to look at the peak GDP year as the basis of a comparison of the size of the government
It is believed the swap dates to when she began campaigning to become the candidate for the safe Wavertree seat last year. She was selected in January.
She has already suffered embarrassment after it was divulged she did not know who Bill Shankly was or who sang Ferry Cross The Mersey."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10151286/Frances-triumphant-Joan-of-Arc-vows-to-bring-back-franc-and-destroy-euro.html
Lefty party stops laughing at anti EU threat - sounds familiar.
"The Socialists had thought the rising star of Marine Le Pen would work to their advantage, splitting the Right. Now they discern a deadly threat."
Also sounding familiar..
"Mrs Le Pen said her first order of business on setting foot in the Elysee Palace will be to announce a referendum on EU membership, "rendez vous" one year later. "I will negotiate over the points on which there can be no compromise. If the result is inadequate, I will call for withdrawal," she said."
Both the traditional parties in France seem to be in utter chaos and have no answers to the crises that France is now facing. Simplistic nostrums such as bringing back the franc are going to get a hearing given the lack of an alternative.
The PMIs for France this morning showed that industry was still contracting there and has been for a very long time. 48.4 (where 50 is stable) was a 16 month high. http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases
Who'd want them back ?
Reality is "misleading?"
Because the fact of the matter is that total Government spending was 39% of GDP in 07, 40% in 08.
Do you want to go deeper down the rabbit hole, and think through implications of your argument that the "real" level of GDP was lower than stated during that time, or shift your argument to something based more on, you know, reality and stuff?