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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fear and loathing in the Tory Party. Whatever the result of

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,298
    RobD said:

    Cookie said:

    I voted Conservative in10 and 15, but I can't see me doing so again until the party get rid of him.

    Luckily for you he's standing down before the next election.
    Ha - good point. My threat is empty. Unless they replace him with Osborne of course.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    Yorkcity said:



    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.

    And in the long term Blairs strategy worked brilliantly didnt it. Remind me who the leader of the Labour Party is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    edited May 2016
    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers.

    "

    'Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.'

    Blair lost 47 seats at the 2005 election due to Labour voters voting LD over Iraq, if the Tories lose 47 seats in 2020 because of Tory voters voting UKIP after Remain narrowly win the EU referendum then the Tories lose their majority!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2016
    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

  • Scott_P said:
    I wouldn't take that bet, because it would require the BBC to admit they have f##ked up.

    I am expecting to see a report on the BBC tomorrow saying that the new Top Gear was watched by a record number of people...
    And a phone poll demonstrating that viewers rather liked it by a 57-43 majority
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Paul_Bedfordshire - I think tha is right.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    edited May 2016

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    Ironically the "unknown" presenters on the Extra Gear "yuff" show aren't bad. Chris Harris does old "Top Gear" style in news section far more naturally than shouty Evans et al. on the main show.

    The BBC should have rebuilt Top Gear from the ground up. First principles. Amusing new presenters with an entirely different dynamic and entirely fresh ideas.

    Instead they tried to replace Morecambe and Wise with an animated cardboard cut-out of Eric Morecambe and a guy whose name sounds like Ernie Wise, and everything else the same. Expecting the chemistry to work.
    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I misread the Labrokes tweet.

    Thought it was offering odds that this episode would be the last Top Gear ever.

    :smiley:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited May 2016

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    I know the feeling.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    How many times were we told during the 2010/15 Parliament (including by Con MPs) that a Con leadership election would be happening within a few months time?

    Maybe this time will be different.

    But when people have made predictions before that have proved wrong, they carry less weight the next time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    Ironically the "unknown" presenters on the Extra Gear "yuff" show aren't bad. Chris Harris does old "Top Gear" style in news section far more naturally than shouty Evans et al. on the main show.

    The BBC should have rebuilt Top Gear from the ground up. First principles. Amusing new presenters with an entirely different dynamic and entirely fresh ideas.

    Instead they tried to replace Morecambe and Wise with an animated cardboard cut-out of Eric Morecambe and a guy whose name sounds like Ernie Wise, and everything else the same. Expecting the chemistry to work.
    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!
    The two guys on Extra Gear were better...not fantastic, but better. They could have definitely built a different show around them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    I misread the Labrokes tweet.

    Thought it was offering odds that this episode would be the last Top Gear ever.

    :smiley:

    Only 5 more to go in this series....I believe next week I was busy...washing my hair.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    MikeL said:

    How many times were we told during the 2010/15 Parliament (including by Con MPs) that a Con leadership election would be happening within a few months time?

    Maybe this time will be different.

    But when people have made predictions before that have proved wrong, they carry less weight the next time.

    But when people have made predictions before that have proved wrong, they carry less weight the next time.

    yes a bit like those experts who said we must join the Euro and who now back remain
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited May 2016

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    The world's first floating sperm donation clinic has opened, it's on a tug boat.


    I'm waiting for the punchline!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    I did not vote in the last two PCC elections.

    There will not be a SNP style change in England .
    Surrey would not change under any circumstances.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MTimT said:

    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!

    What was obvious about 10 seconds into the first piece is that Clarkson (and May) were journalists before they were presenters.

    It's not just sitting in a car and speaking; the quality of the script writing makes a huge difference.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    All of which was utterly predictable. David Cameron has behaved exactly in character and the Tory headbangers have behaved exactly in character. Tory Leavers didn't really just want a referendum, they wanted to win. They will never forgive anyone who they perceive to have thwarted them.

    I'm sorry but this is bullshit

    If Cameron is so ruthless at politics and brilliant at wining, how come he didn't win a decent renegotiation in Brussels? How come he came back with a deal so insultingly bad, he himself has barely mentioned it since?

    THAT was his Original Sin. That was the grotesque failure - or the howling and deliberate lie - from which all else springs.
    But remember, if Cameron hadn't got that deal he would have recommended Leave.

    And if anyone believes that, god help you.
    The ultimate slap in the face is the "deal" has now left us in a worse position than if Cameron had not bothered at all. We have now lost the veto which would have given us some leverage over the EU.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    MTimT said:

    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!

    What was obvious about 10 seconds into the first piece is that Clarkson (and May) were journalists before they were presenters.

    It's not just sitting in a car and speaking; the quality of the script writing makes a huge difference.
    By all accounts, contrary to peoples impression, Clarkson was obsessive about all script, the production etc etc etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @gorbalsgoebbels: I'm gonna watch the light in my fridge come on next week instead of #TopGear

    @gorbalsgoebbels: It's like Mike Flowers Pop version of Wonderwall compared to the Oasis original. #TopGear

    Only much, much worse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    If I was David Cameron I would announce that I will stay in Office for three months post the referendum and then let the conservative party self destruct as that is what is going to happen if the extreme Brexit have their way. No matter that Corbyn is leader of labour the conservatives will not get another majority for years as it breaks in two, and loses my membership and many others in the process
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    JohnO said:

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
    Makes very little difference in my constituency JohnO its one of the safest in the country. But I do enjoy not voting Tory these days.

    Likewise the day will come when all those voters you told to fk off will suddenly be needed. Amusingly at the local level the Tories have been looking a bit shaky round here as independents have start taking their seats. Sound familiar ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NeilVW said:

    The world's first floating sperm donation clinic has opened, it's on a tug boat.


    I'm waiting for the punchline!
    They wanted a frigate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    No surprise that Nadine's letter in.. one of the usual suspects.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited May 2016

    JohnO said:

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
    Makes very little difference in my constituency JohnO its one of the safest in the country. But I do enjoy not voting Tory these days.

    Likewise the day will come when all those voters you told to fk off will suddenly be needed. Amusingly at the local level the Tories have been looking a bit shaky round here as independents have start taking their seats. Sound familiar ?
    Ah, that startling revelation that Governments tend to fare poorly in local elections....
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:

    MTimT said:

    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!

    What was obvious about 10 seconds into the first piece is that Clarkson (and May) were journalists before they were presenters.

    It's not just sitting in a car and speaking; the quality of the script writing makes a huge difference.
    Fair enough. But expectations management is also key. You can't stop people comparing with Clarkson et al, but it's hard to go about tearing down some young blood trying something new in the same way that it is possible to tear down Chris Evans and Joey.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited May 2016
    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    All of which was utterly predictable. David Cameron has behaved exactly in character and the Tory headbangers have behaved exactly in character. Tory Leavers didn't really just want a referendum, they wanted to win. They will never forgive anyone who they perceive to have thwarted them.

    I'm sorry but this is bullshit

    If Cameron is so ruthless at politics and brilliant at wining, how come he didn't win a decent renegotiation in Brussels? How come he came back with a deal so insultingly bad, he himself has barely mentioned it since?

    THAT was his Original Sin. That was the grotesque failure - or the howling and deliberate lie - from which all else springs.
    But remember, if Cameron hadn't got that deal he would have recommended Leave.

    And if anyone believes that, god help you.
    The ultimate slap in the face is the "deal" has now left us in a worse position than if Cameron had not bothered at all. We have now lost the veto which would have given us some leverage over the EU.
    You obviously don't understand the deal as was negotiated.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the decision just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150

    No surprise that Nadine's letter in.. one of the usual suspects.

    Hasn't it been in since 2010
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:



    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.

    And in the long term Blairs strategy worked brilliantly didnt it. Remind me who the leader of the Labour Party is.
    The Leader is Corbyn in opposition , Cameron followed the Blair handbook and won, shafted the right and left.
    New Labour policies still rule, EU, minimum wage , libya , acadamies , tution fees, Mandelson and Osborne best friends.
    A third way achievement you must agree.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    https://twitter.com/Sysomos/status/737008782824353793

    25% positive, now that is a surprise....the BBC PR accounts must have been sending out a lot of tweets.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
    Makes very little difference in my constituency JohnO its one of the safest in the country. But I do enjoy not voting Tory these days.

    Likewise the day will come when all those voters you told to fk off will suddenly be needed. Amusingly at the local level the Tories have been looking a bit shaky round here as independents have start taking their seats. Sound familiar ?
    Ah, that startling revelation that Governments tend to fare poorly in local elections....
    Still betting the farm on Jezza I see. Mad.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780



    I am ignoring nothing . I am simply pointing out that Yougov ( on whose figures your calculations are based ) are showing many more Labour 2015 to UKIP now switchers than the phone pollsters and more even than ICM online polls Having just checked Comres last online poll their figure is 4% similar to ICM and well below Yougovs figure .

    "Well below Yougovs figure"? Not so. Check out the source data and you'll see that there were 477 Labour voters in total from 2015 (282 In, 137 Out, 58 Uncommitted). 22 of these (all Out) have switched to UKIP. So that's YouGov finding 4.6% (22/477) Lab to UKIP switchers compared to 4% ComRes. Thus there are 16% (22/137) Lab Out to UKIP switchers, the figure I cite in the piece. Overall 42% of the 137 2015 Lab Out voters have switched, to various parties or DK/DV/Ref, so the UKIP element in that is a minority of the total anyway.

    I am also pointing out the existence of false recall for switchers, the difficulty of phone pollsters in dealing with it, and that it is a much less serious issue for YouGov. As a consequence I would be concerned if in the source data YouGov were not identifying more switchers than phone pollsters. Because of that I fail to see the grounds for your claim that "the problem remains with your source data".
    Last comment on this subject , the difference as I have pointed out is not just between Yougov and the Online pollsters but with other online pollsters also . ICM in particular have done research on false recall and it is nothing like on the scale that you seem to imply . A strange feature of the post 2010 GE polling was that more people said they had voted Lib Dem than actually had .
    And my last comment is that although you refer to differences between the raw YouGov data set (4.6%) and other online pollsters on switchers to UKIP from Labour (your reasoning for focusing on switchers to UKIP alone being something that continues to elude me) what you've actually done is to cite figures (ComRes 4% and ICM 3%) from other online pollsters which are in fact broadly similar in scale to YouGov's. I will just have to disagree with you regarding the evidence of why false recall can be a problem for phone pollsters.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Scott_P said:

    MTimT said:

    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!

    What was obvious about 10 seconds into the first piece is that Clarkson (and May) were journalists before they were presenters.

    It's not just sitting in a car and speaking; the quality of the script writing makes a huge difference.
    By all accounts, contrary to peoples impression, Clarkson was obsessive about all script, the production etc etc etc.
    Didn't need to punch someone though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the decision just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016

    Scott_P said:

    MTimT said:

    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!

    What was obvious about 10 seconds into the first piece is that Clarkson (and May) were journalists before they were presenters.

    It's not just sitting in a car and speaking; the quality of the script writing makes a huge difference.
    By all accounts, contrary to peoples impression, Clarkson was obsessive about all script, the production etc etc etc.
    Didn't need to punch someone though.
    Oh...he definitely deserved to go.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    SeanT said:

    Ironically the "unknown" presenters on the Extra Gear "yuff" show aren't bad. Chris Harris does old "Top Gear" style in news section far more naturally than shouty Evans et al. on the main show.

    The BBC should have rebuilt Top Gear from the ground up. First principles. Amusing new presenters with an entirely different dynamic and entirely fresh ideas.

    Instead they tried to replace Morecambe and Wise with an animated cardboard cut-out of Eric Morecambe and a guy whose name sounds like Ernie Wise, and everything else the same. Expecting the chemistry to work.
    Personally, I think they would have been better not just starting from the ground up, but with absolutely new, 'no-name' presenters who would bring no baggage and no expectations with them. Find some young blood with natural energy, enthusiasm and hunger - and fun. But no, let's get some big names in so that it won't flop. Uh oh!
    Yes, that's what I meant (but I was unclear).

    The last guys did the middle-aged-men having a Ferrari crisis superbly, and inimitably.

    The BBC should have taken the punt, abandoned all of that, and gone for youth. Now they are lumbered with another middle aged team which, I suspect, will never find the right chemistry, and the brand is damaged, probably beyond repair.

    FWIW I agree with the suspicion that Clarkson's new show will not be all that, either. Top Gear had something precious and special, and it is very hard to simply migrate that. Comedy is delicate.
    Alas, I suspect you are right. Seinfeld is spectacularly unfunny these days, as is Rowan Atkinson.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited May 2016
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the decision just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    He's a Northern Ireland Prod, so Puritan, he'd make Olly Cromwell look like a hedonistic heathen
  • FPT

    LewisDuckworth said:
    Anecdote alert. My niece's husband supervises 30-odd welders at a power station on the west coast. He assures me that he will be voting BREXIT and, furthermore, ALL his welders seem similarly inclined.

    The UnionDivvie: What about their dear, old mums? Are they being kept locked in their attics on referendum day?

    -----

    Look, my Scotchsmart*rse, she's in hospital - and I'm relieved after 25 years of incessant moaning about pains in her ankles, hips, etc.etc. - where she'll proceed to find fault and be ungrateful to her carers. No postal vote has been arranged, and no neighbours (all have abandoned her) will get her to the polling booth. It's so damned easy to criticise other;s perceived shortcomings, as that naive idiot in Tokyo did me.

    Yesterday at hospital I was witness to a really nasty old woman in a wheelchair*** speaking to her carer as if she were dirt .... obviously used to getting her own way for many years .... really, so many people have no personal experience of the fact that at least 15% of immobile old ladies are tyrants who are like me, having masses of NHS resources thrown at them

    *** We were both ar hospital to have eye injections.
    Flag Quote · Off Topic
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    I think Cameron complaining about bad faith in his MPs would be a bit rich, tbh.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the decision just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
  • SeanT said:



    PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers.

    They all go bonkers in the end, some get voted out early before people notice though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited May 2016

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
    Makes very little difference in my constituency JohnO its one of the safest in the country. But I do enjoy not voting Tory these days.

    Likewise the day will come when all those voters you told to fk off will suddenly be needed. Amusingly at the local level the Tories have been looking a bit shaky round here as independents have start taking their seats. Sound familiar ?
    Ah, that startling revelation that Governments tend to fare poorly in local elections....
    Still betting the farm on Jezza I see. Mad.
    No. But the fact that Tories are still leading in the national polls seems to have eluded you.

    Anyway, let's see what happens on the 23rd and in subsequent months: one of us will still have credibility.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,153

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Sort of on topic, Mike's voting Leave in the EURef

    (I think to cause maximum damage to the Tories)

    Mike Smithson? Is that a joke?
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/736916673056362497
    https://twitter.com/Gnorrn/status/736931884299476992
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/736939020924641281
    Well, his last wheeze of pairing his vote in Twickenham, worked brilliantly, didn't it.

    What was the phrase by Private Frazer?
    To be fair there have been lots of people on both sides saying they are voting a particular way for their children and grandchildren's sake. In this case we happen to know that Smithson Junior is a Leave fan so maybe OGH is just going to vote Leave for Robert's sake.
    I do not mind anyone's reason for voting Leave. All contributions gratefully accepted.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the decision just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    He's a Northern Ireland Prod, so Puritan, he'd make Olly Cromwell look like a hedonistic heathen
    Speaking as an English Catholic who is descended from Northern Ireland Prods as you so delightfully put it, is there any need for such sectarian labelling?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    If I was David Cameron I would announce that I will stay in Office for three months post the referendum and then let the conservative party self destruct as that is what is going to happen if the extreme Brexit have their way. No matter that Corbyn is leader of labour the conservatives will not get another majority for years as it breaks in two, and loses my membership and many others in the process

    It will not happen Big G.
    The conservative party will always survive as a governing party with FPTP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    I think Cameron complaining about bad faith in his MPs would be a bit rich, tbh.
    Leavers wanted a referendum; they got a referendum.

    They have nothing to complain about.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    Watching Top Gear on IPlayer now... I think it's quite good? :shurg:
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2016
    SeanT said:

    All of which was utterly predictable. David Cameron has behaved exactly in character and the Tory headbangers have behaved exactly in character. Tory Leavers didn't really just want a referendum, they wanted to win. They will never forgive anyone who they perceive to have thwarted them.

    I'm sorry but this is bullshit

    If Cameron is so ruthless at politics and brilliant at wining, how come he didn't win a decent renegotiation in Brussels? How come he came back with a deal so insultingly bad, he himself has barely mentioned it since?

    THAT was his Original Sin. That was the grotesque failure - or the howling and deliberate lie - from which all else springs.
    He is, as Churchill once quoted about McDonald

    "a boneless wonder"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    And what ? Are you telling me a man in his position cant get a bit of cross party support of find some common ground ? Must be a shit politician then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:



    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.

    And in the long term Blairs strategy worked brilliantly didnt it. Remind me who the leader of the Labour Party is.
    The Leader is Corbyn in opposition , Cameron followed the Blair handbook and won, shafted the right and left.
    New Labour policies still rule, EU, minimum wage , libya , acadamies , tution fees, Mandelson and Osborne best friends.
    A third way achievement you must agree.
    I would expect the next Labour PM will be Chuka Umunna in a similar vein but only in 2025 once the moderates are back in charge in Labour and the Tea Party Tories have totally taken over the Tory Party and once an election is lost they will have one of their own in charge
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited May 2016

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    Let's name some of 'em. I'll start with Mad Nad, Brigen, Phillip Davies, Jenkin, Bone, Leigh, Chope, Ann Main.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    Spot on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    And what ? Are you telling me a man in his position cant get a bit of cross party support of find some common ground ? Must be a shit politician then
    Erm, have you actually looked at the composition of the current House of Commons?

    Sometimes you seem like the very silliest poster on pb.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers."

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.


    Nowhere else to go?

    For the first time ever, at the last election, I did not vote.

    Ok, it was only the PCC, but still. First Time Ever Not Voting.

    Maybe next time I'll vote UKIP just for the hell of it. Sod Cameron.

    And I don't even like UKIP.

    Me too. This nowhere else to go only works short tem eventually something turns up,

    Worse for the big two is ince their reliable core voters go feral they rarely come back. From here on in they have to start working for votes they once had in the bag.
    Despite the loss of your vote and the other 25 captive electors in the Brookie household I see that Mr Zahawi's majority slumped from a triumphant 11,346 in 2010 to a derisory 22,876 last year.
    Makes very little difference in my constituency JohnO its one of the safest in the country. But I do enjoy not voting Tory these days.

    Likewise the day will come when all those voters you told to fk off will suddenly be needed. Amusingly at the local level the Tories have been looking a bit shaky round here as independents have start taking their seats. Sound familiar ?
    Ah, that startling revelation that Governments tend to fare poorly in local elections....
    Still betting the farm on Jezza I see. Mad.
    No. But the fact that Tories are still leading in the national polls seems to have eluded you.

    Anyway, let's see what happens on the 23rd and in subsequent months: one of us will still have credibility.
    A week is a long time in politics as the man said, and Cameron is just pissing too many core supporters off needlessly. Let see how it unfurls.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Moses_ said:

    SeanT said:

    All of which was utterly predictable. David Cameron has behaved exactly in character and the Tory headbangers have behaved exactly in character. Tory Leavers didn't really just want a referendum, they wanted to win. They will never forgive anyone who they perceive to have thwarted them.

    I'm sorry but this is bullshit

    If Cameron is so ruthless at politics and brilliant at wining, how come he didn't win a decent renegotiation in Brussels? How come he came back with a deal so insultingly bad, he himself has barely mentioned it since?

    THAT was his Original Sin. That was the grotesque failure - or the howling and deliberate lie - from which all else springs.
    He is, as Churchill once quoted about McDonald

    "a boneless wonder"
    @SeanT by his own admission doesn't understand the deal. Do you?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Looking at tomorrow's front pages, Leave's big push on immigration doesn't feature, but only stories about trying to topple Dave.

    Well played Leave.

    Leave = Fruitcakes led by donkeys.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    SeanT said:

    All of which was utterly predictable. David Cameron has behaved exactly in character and the Tory headbangers have behaved exactly in character. Tory Leavers didn't really just want a referendum, they wanted to win. They will never forgive anyone who they perceive to have thwarted them.

    I'm sorry but this is bullshit

    If Cameron is so ruthless at politics and brilliant at wining, how come he didn't win a decent renegotiation in Brussels? How come he came back with a deal so insultingly bad, he himself has barely mentioned it since?

    THAT was his Original Sin. That was the grotesque failure - or the howling and deliberate lie - from which all else springs.
    There was no deal that would have satisfied the hardcore Leavers. That the deal actually brought back was pisspoor is an irrelevance. Do you really think that IDS was waiting for a new settlement to throw himself joyfully behind Remain?
    There are relatively few hardcore Leavers in the Tory party. But Cameron has succeeded in pissing off the soft sceptics that probably constitute a majority of the party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    The EUref is more impoirtant than the dissolution of the country ?
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    I think Cameron complaining about bad faith in his MPs would be a bit rich, tbh.
    Leavers wanted a referendum; they got a referendum.

    They have nothing to complain about.
    Really? So all that guff about campaigning for Leave if he didn't get a satisfactory deal should be ignored by those he lied to?

    I think 'nothing to complain about' is risible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150
    Yorkcity said:

    If I was David Cameron I would announce that I will stay in Office for three months post the referendum and then let the conservative party self destruct as that is what is going to happen if the extreme Brexit have their way. No matter that Corbyn is leader of labour the conservatives will not get another majority for years as it breaks in two, and loses my membership and many others in the process

    It will not happen Big G.
    The conservative party will always survive as a governing party with FPTP.
    Only if the party pulls itself together, a move to the right would be a big mistake
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    And what ? Are you telling me a man in his position cant get a bit of cross party support of find some common ground ? Must be a shit politician then
    Erm, have you actually looked at the composition of the current House of Commons?

    Sometimes you seem like the very silliest poster on pb.
    Nah Alistair Ive always got you in front of me.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    The EUref is more impoirtant than the dissolution of the country ?
    No. IndyRef was never in doubt and was always a bit of nationalist flag-waving.

    Meanwhile, this sh1t just got serious.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Looking at tomorrow's front pages, Leave's big push on immigration doesn't feature, but only stories about trying to topple Dave.

    Well played Leave.

    Leave = Fruitcakes led by donkeys.

    Surely that will encourage Labour supporters to vote Leave.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JohnO said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    Let's name some of 'em. I'll start with Mad Nad, Brigen, Phillip Davies, Jenkin, Bone, Leigh, Chope, Ann Main.
    Johnny boy, your party is falling apart. Mainly the fault of that dynamic duo Cammo and Osbo, but the Tories had lost their way ever since the lynching of Thatcher by that gang of four.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    I think Cameron complaining about bad faith in his MPs would be a bit rich, tbh.
    Leaotvers wanted a referendum; they got a referendum.

    They have nothing to complain about.
    Really? So all that guff about campaigning for Leave if he didn't get a satisfactory deal should be ignored by those he lied to?

    I think 'nothing to complain about' is risible.
    he...got...a...good...deal....

    what bit of it do you not like?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Surely that will encourage Labour supporters to vote Leave.

    Why would Labour voters want BoJo to be PM?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    The EUref is more impoirtant than the dissolution of the country ?
    No. IndyRef was never in doubt and was always a bit of nationalist flag-waving.

    Meanwhile, this sh1t just got serious.
    Id say EUref is more clear cut than Indyref. And even if we leave the country isnt going to fall in to the sea.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,150

    Looking at tomorrow's front pages, Leave's big push on immigration doesn't feature, but only stories about trying to topple Dave.

    Well played Leave.

    Leave = Fruitcakes led by donkeys.

    Surely that will encourage Labour supporters to vote Leave.
    And get Boris Gove and IDS - I doubt it
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited May 2016

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    There's nothing meaningful that would get passed. Too many Conservative MPs are off the reservation and there's no potential source of substitutes.
    No this is a Cameron issue, the Queens speech was empty, he's not even trying.
    The issue is not David Cameron. Unprecedentedly, Conservative MPs sought to amend the Queen's Speech. This was outrageous constitutionally but entirely predictable given the characters involved.

    There was no chance of passing difficult legislation with too many Conservative MPs behaving in such bad faith.
    No youre just in Tory nutter mode and seeking to blame them for all you dont like, Cameron sits in the chair and the buck stops with him, He is wasting a year of his parliamentary life doing nothing.
    10 rogue Conservative MPs can stop any controversial legislation. There are far more than 10 rogue Conservative MPs.
    And what ? Are you telling me a man in his position cant get a bit of cross party support of find some common ground ? Must be a shit politician then
    Erm, have you actually looked at the composition of the current House of Commons?

    Sometimes you seem like the very silliest poster on pb.
    Nah Alistair Ive always got you in front of me.
    :astonished:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @gorbalsgoebbels: I'm gonna watch the light in my fridge come on next week instead of #TopGear

    @gorbalsgoebbels: It's like Mike Flowers Pop version of Wonderwall compared to the Oasis original. #TopGear

    Only much, much worse.

    The mike flowers pops version of wonder wall is fantastic.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    Lol.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    TOPPING said:



    he...got...a...good...deal....

    what bit of it do you not like?

    How about doing next to nothing about the immigration crisis in this country?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    The only surprise is that people are surprised that Cameron's career looks like it'll be over whether it's REMAIN or LEAVE.

    Did people seriously think the Prime Minister could fly in POTUS to threaten his own citizens and there wouldn't be consequences down the track for him?

    Cameron has caused all his misfortunes, first by refusing to have a genuine renegotiation with real reforms, unlike what he promised and then the way he has conducted the campaign.

    I assume he's gone for such a "scorched earth" EU policy because he's got a mega bucks deal lined up in the private sector and will be walking away very soon after the referendum anyway? It's the only thing that makes sense?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,153
    Night all. Play nicely.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Scott_P said:

    Surely that will encourage Labour supporters to vote Leave.

    Why would Labour voters want BoJo to be PM?
    At one point more than half the Tory party thought the country would want IDS as PM so we shouldn't discount blind spot the euro-obsessives have regarding electoral appeal.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    The EUref is more impoirtant than the dissolution of the country ?
    No. IndyRef was never in doubt and was always a bit of nationalist flag-waving.

    Meanwhile, this sh1t just got serious.
    Id say EUref is more clear cut than Indyref. And even if we leave the country isnt going to fall in to the sea.
    I wouldn't say more clear cut, nor would I say the UK will fall into the sea. But no one in their right mind thought Scotland would breakaway from the UK. It was always a negotiating ploy. A successful one.

    If the UK votes Leave then it will be quite some job to re-establish trade relations, on whatever terms.

    However, just like with GE2015, and IndyRef, I trust the people. And I trust them to vote Remain on June 23rd.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Yorkcity said:


    Seant

    "PS if he really does believe he's got some major reform, then Cameron is not just a mendacious failure at EU politics, he's bonkers.

    "

    Cameron knows how to shaft the right and isolate them to irrelevance just like Blair did to the left.
    He also knows people like you , have nowhere else to go at GE with FPTP.
    All talk and no follow through. You are the bonkers ones not him.

    A particularly stupid comment considering so many have already left the Tory party.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    William Waldegrave threatens to quit Tories https://t.co/W4IomSexRL

    Over social background checks for employees.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    Yep, the Tories are buggered. As is Labour. The Brexit negotiations will be fun. A solid, united front for our European friends to worry about. What a complete mess.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative, it is remarkable to see the way a Party which, just over 12 months ago, won an unlikely victory, seemingly tear itself apart.

    I say "seemingly" because rhetoric is everything at times like this and the reality of governance will kick in on June 24th whichever side wins. The damage is not of course the row or the words themselves - the damage is the impression that a Party elected to govern is more interested in self-indulgence than governance.

    the
    but they are

    they have no meaningful legislative programme for this Parlt.
    No government would be able to enact a meaningful legislative programme when there is an epochal decision to be made on its watch.
    Nonsense Governments have done it all the time. And more than often the deciion just turn up unexpectedly and still Parlts get on with the day to day. This is simply Cameron cant figure out what to do next.
    Nope are you really saying that every government has a generational referendum on its watch?

    You are a hard taskmaster, so you are.
    Did we pass legislation in Indyref ? Of course we did and that was in a coalition with an even bigger risk than leaving the EU.
    don't agree. Perhaps I am a southern jesse, but IMO this is more important than IndyRef.
    The EUref is more impoirtant than the dissolution of the country ?
    No. IndyRef was never in doubt and was always a bit of nationalist flag-waving.

    Meanwhile, this sh1t just got serious.
    Id say EUref is more clear cut than Indyref. And even if we leave the country isnt going to fall in to the sea.
    I wouldn't say more clear cut, nor would I say the UK will fall into the sea. But no one in their right mind thought Scotland would breakaway from the UK. It was always a negotiating ploy. A successful one.

    If the UK votes Leave then it will be quite some job to re-establish trade relations, on whatever terms.

    However, just like with GE2015, and IndyRef, I trust the people. And I trust them to vote Remain on June 23rd.
    1,6 million Scots did and a lot of them were former Tory voters. I doubt they were mad.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    US Presidential News!

    Governor Gary Johnson has just won the Libertarian Party Nomination for President!

    www.garyjohnson2016.com

    Ok this was the expected result, so no big news, but so far there have been 4 opinion poles that have included his name and all 4 have him at 10% or more. Now he has formaly won the nomination, I think there will be more poles conducted with his name on. The interest from that could feed back an put him over 15% and get him in the debates. if so he could, as a relatively unknown quantity, beat expectations, as Nick Clegg did in the 2010 debates in the UK.

    On election day he does not need to win 50% of voters, he does not even need to win more voters that the over partys, all he needs to do is win sufishent number of states to, deny the other 2 of 270 Electrale Collage Votes, and then it goes to the US House of Representatives.

    The House of Reps is curently Republican led, but there are 40-80 liberty minded republican reps who I think would much prefer Johnson to Trump, (maybe more?) who I think would be happy to team up with the Democrats, to stop Trump.

    A lot of maybes and what ifs, Johnson remaines a long shot, but he is getting shorter!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112

    TOPPING said:



    he...got...a...good...deal....

    what bit of it do you not like?

    How about doing next to nothing about the immigration crisis in this country?
    Yes, I agree. The immigration bit was farcical. He should never have made his tens of thousands "promise". It diminished him then and diminishes him and the Remain campaign now.

    I think it is clear that if you are concerned about immigration, then you would be justified in voting Leave.

    However, the deal achieved a lot besides the sop to immigration in terms of defining our relationship with the EU. And if you are meh on immigration (you don't have to be) then there are few other grounds, IMO, to vote Leave.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Looking at tomorrow's front pages, Leave's big push on immigration doesn't feature, but only stories about trying to topple Dave.

    Well played Leave.

    Leave = Fruitcakes led by donkeys.

    Surely that will encourage Labour supporters to vote Leave.
    Yes.

    They will smell blood.

    Especially the working class ones who dislike the EU as well, and who can't utter the name Cameron without some mention of Bullingdon, Eton, Tory Posh boy etc etc.

    Two birds. One stone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    If Leave narrowly lose the referendum, Farage steps down as UKIP leader and Suzanne Evans replaces him as Sturgeon did Salmond would be very interesting
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    If I was David Cameron I would announce that I will stay in Office for three months post the referendum and then let the conservative party self destruct as that is what is going to happen if the extreme Brexit have their way. No matter that Corbyn is leader of labour the conservatives will not get another majority for years as it breaks in two, and loses my membership and many others in the process

    It will not happen Big G.
    The conservative party will always survive as a governing party with FPTP.
    Only if the party pulls itself together, a move to the right would be a big mistake
    Possibly but there will be a space to move to the right, with no real political consequences.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    BigRich said:

    Ok this was the expected result, so no big news, but so far there have been 4 opinion poles that have included his name and all 4 have him at 10% or more. Now he has formaly won the nomination, I think there will be more poles conducted with his name on.

    I've been waiting for someone to make this mistake with all this immigration talk.
This discussion has been closed.