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REMAIN now a 78% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/0aItlRMc6C

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peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

Sunil_Prasannan

Second like England, I mean REMAIN!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/sharpeangle/status/733286737527595008

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

CarlottaVance said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. T, explosion damaging the engine/flight controls?.

Again, unlikely to lead to an instantaneous loss of data transmission - whatever happened was catastrophic and it would appear, without warning.

But if it was a bomb that is extremely disquieting in terms of European airport security. It means ISIS/whoeever have found a new way to get bombs on planes, in big European cities - or a way to get bombs on planes in the Middle East which can then go undetected in France.

I find that hard to believe. Maybe because I don't WANT to believe.

TBH there are so many ways in which a bomb could be delivered onto a plane. All the screening of passengers is here nor there. You only need a handful of corrupted individuals in the correct roles.

Although, in that case, I'm not sure 66 passengers on an A320 to Cairo would have been my choice.

No agreed. Also, my first thought if you were a suicidal pilot not that far off landing, why not plough it into a highly populated city? Bomb smuggled into the cargo system would seem most logical as you wouldn't know only 66 people were going to be on the plane.

But obviously this is all just guess work.

TheScreamingEagles

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

Greek TV now reporting debris field sighted by airborne SAR crews.

I've just seen a tweet saying CNN are reporting a "fight in the cockpit"

But I can't see the actual CNN report, so caveat emptor

Sounds like CNN are adding up 2 and 2 to make 17, as they usually do when they don't understand what is actually happening or has happened.

They have to make their hourly quota of "breaking news" flashing banners.

Don't start me!

If almost everything I hear about a complicated subject I actually understand (computers and aeroplanes in my case) is so obviously bollocks, then how's about the rest of the stuff, on which I rely on them to inform me?

That sums up a lot of the media tbh. Probably why specialist publications / websites are still alive and kicking i.e. why i come to PB to read about politics, polls and betting on politics.

rcs1000

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

TheScreamingEagles

Has David Cameron coaxed out Britain's shy Tory Europhiles?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/has-david-cameron-coaxed-out-britains-shy-tory-europhiles/

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

It's got to be worth a few quid on Leave in advance of the poll tonight, unless the money is from insiders who've seen it already?

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

Sunil_Prasannan

Hales gets his Half-century.

JackW

New Jersey - Quinnipiac

Clinton 54 .. Sanders 40

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38
Sanders 49 .. Trump 37

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj05192016_Nwh73tr.pdf

National - McLaughlin

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://c5.nrostatic.com/sites/default/files/National - McLaughlin - 5-16-16 Presentation - NEW SPECIAL.pdf

blackburn63

https://www.facebook.com/probritish/videos/10154128492650912/

Not sure if this works but its great viewing

felix

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Sounds like you're teasing

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

Greek TV now reporting debris field sighted by airborne SAR crews.

I've just seen a tweet saying CNN are reporting a "fight in the cockpit"

But I can't see the actual CNN report, so caveat emptor

Sounds like CNN are adding up 2 and 2 to make 17, as they usually do when they don't understand what is actually happening or has happened.

They have to make their hourly quota of "breaking news" flashing banners.

Don't start me!

If almost everything I hear about a complicated subject I actually understand (computers and aeroplanes in my case) is so obviously bollocks, then how's about the rest of the stuff, on which I rely on them to inform me?

That sums up a lot of the media tbh. Probably why specialist publications / websites are still alive and kicking i.e. why i come to PB to read about politics, polls and betting on politics.

Yes, specialist blogs and forums are thriving in the era of dumbed down and sensationalist news reporting.

The PPRuNe forum have a poster who is talking to the captain of a commercial boat in the search area, sending images and marine radar back. Very good source of information.
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/579183-egyptair-804-disappears-radar-paris-cairo-6.html

JackW

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

Ask your father ....

TonyE

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

It's got to be worth a few quid on Leave in advance of the poll tonight, unless the money is from insiders who've seen it already?

Tom at ComRes is playing it deadpan.

TheWhiteRabbit

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Free money? Are you mad?

Wanderer

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Surely the mood was very receptive to yesterday's Mori. Nobody sure what's happening. People thinking that Remain "should" be ahead. Suddenly - clarity!

I think the effect will dissipate over the next week if there is no confirmation.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

It's got to be worth a few quid on Leave in advance of the poll tonight, unless the money is from insiders who've seen it already?

Tom at ComRes is playing it deadpan.

Tell Tom we're not interested unless it's interesting.

TheScreamingEagles

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Sounds like you're teasing

I've not seen an embargoed copy. I'm in the dark with the rest of PB.

Pong

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/sharpeangle/status/733286737527595008

*cough*

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/3212/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-eu-referendum-douglas-carswell-s-absolutely-right-abou/p1

December 2015

"Remain is value at 1/2. It would probably value at 1/3, too."

It took a while for the odds to shift but we got there in the end.

Plato_Says

Just watched Hannan's Speccy case - cracking stuff, he needs to be front and centre. Whether you're Leave or Remain or DK - well worth 6mins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZRuIhtC9Mo

TheScreamingEagles

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Surely the mood was very receptive to yesterday's Mori. Nobody sure what's happening. People thinking that Remain "should" be ahead. Suddenly - clarity!

I think the effect will dissipate over the next week if there is no confirmation.

I think it was a bugger for Leave, the supplementaries showed they didn't believe Cameron's War & Peace lines, but they still moved to Remain.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

It's got to be worth a few quid on Leave in advance of the poll tonight, unless the money is from insiders who've seen it already?

Tom at ComRes is playing it deadpan.

Tell Tom we're not interested unless it's interesting.

https://twitter.com/tom_ComRes/status/733249462240464896

Plato_Says

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Get a grip Tony! We've 35 days to go.

Anorak

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

Pulpstar

JackW said:

New Jersey - Quinnipiac

Clinton 54 .. Sanders 40

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38
Sanders 49 .. Trump 37

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj05192016_Nwh73tr.pdf

National - McLaughlin

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://c5.nrostatic.com/sites/default/files/National - McLaughlin - 5-16-16 Presentation - NEW SPECIAL.pdf

Trump is shifting the map. Albeit in very safe seats (This time round)

He'll lose a net of ~312,000 useless Iowa votes and gain ~343,000 equally useless New Jersey votes

Plato_Says

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

I've never recovered from Dan Dare and Marvel comics myself.

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Free money? Are you mad?

"Poor" if that post is anything to go by.

Blue_rog

How about impeaching Dave for treason if remain wins?

Roger

Mike. You should have been a picture editor.

blackburn63

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Yes, I think it's brave. What if the phone polls are wrong and the onlines right?

Plato_Says

The Telegraph's Josie Ensor in Beirut writes:

Still no mention of the EgyptAir crash on Isil-affiliated Amqa Agency's Telegram.

However, it was several hours before the group claimed last October's Metrojet crash.

Isil now has an established media protocol for taking responsibility for attacks, which is much more regimented than people assume. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/egyptair-flight-from-paris-to-cairo-disappears-from-radar/

dr_spyn

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

JackW said:

New Jersey - Quinnipiac

Clinton 54 .. Sanders 40

Clinton 45 .. Trump 38
Sanders 49 .. Trump 37

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj05192016_Nwh73tr.pdf

National - McLaughlin

Clinton 46 .. Trump 42

http://c5.nrostatic.com/sites/default/files/National - McLaughlin - 5-16-16 Presentation - NEW SPECIAL.pdf

Trump is shifting the map. Albeit in very safe seats (This time round)

He'll lose a net of ~312,000 useless Iowa votes and gain ~343,000 equally useless New Jersey votes

Mind you that lot implies NH, PA, OH may well go one way with AZ, NV and CO the other.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 63, wish I'd backed that. But hindsight does make betting rather easy.

Plato_Says

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

Very Summerhill. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summerhill_School

Summerhill School is an independent British boarding school that was founded in 1921 by Alexander Sutherland Neill with the belief that the school should be made to fit the child, rather than the other way around. It is run as a democratic community; the running of the school is conducted in the school meetings, which anyone, staff or pupil, may attend, and at which everyone has an equal vote. These meetings serve as both a legislative and judicial body. Members of the community are free to do as they please, so long as their actions do not cause any harm to others, according to Neill's principle "Freedom, not Licence." This extends to the freedom for pupils to choose which lessons, if any, they attend.

AlastairMeeks

Worst edition of Celebrity Squares ever.

TheScreamingEagles

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

Must warn PBers I've got a Lord Of The Rings themed thread coming up in about 10 days time.

Spoiler Alert: I've cast Jeremy Corbyn as Sauron, a long vanquished enemy makes a return to the surprise of Middle England and the Labour right.

I've cast John McDonnell as Saruman, Milne as Wormtongue.

And urge the Labour right to do the charge of the Rohirrim at Pelennor Fields

Casino_Royale

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

I do hope you're not a regular gambler with an approach like that.

blackburn63

Anybody who's familiar with betfair knows all about 1.01 gubbings.

Roll up roll up free money.

Cry the layers

TheScreamingEagles

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, presumably Morgoth is Stalin?

Anorak

dr_spyn said:

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

AKM, I think. IANAGN.

TCPoliticalBetting

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

dr_spyn

@thescreamingeagles One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Yes, I think it's brave. What if the phone polls are wrong and the onlines right?

Sir Humphrey would call it courageous

blackburn63

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/733242745385537536

blackburn63

Casino_Royale said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

I do hope you're not a regular gambler with an approach like that.

I suspect he's the type of regular gambler that bookies entertain lavishly

Anorak

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

Must warn PBers I've got a Lord Of The Rings themed thread coming up in about 10 days time.

Spoiler Alert: I've cast Jeremy Corbyn as Sauron, a long vanquished enemy makes a return to the surprise of Middle England and the Labour right.

I've cast John McDonnell as Saruman, Milne as Wormtongue.

And urge the Labour right to do the charge of the Rohirrim at Pelennor Fields

Nigel as the Balrog?

JackW

Pulpstar said:

Mind you that lot implies NH, PA, OH may well go one way with AZ, NV and CO the other.

Very early days with Trump having secured the nomination and Clinton still in a race albeit one she will win.

It's too easy to get drawn in at this point but we are still almost six months from polling day. Post convention and Labor Day is truly where the first steps of the final lap begins.

FrancisUrquhart

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

Pulpstar

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

10-1 after exit poll
2-1 against after Nuneaton result

And about 1.5 as Ed Balls was losing his seat.

TheScreamingEagles

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

It was 10/1 with William Hill at 10.10pm shortly after the exit poll was published

and was 2/1 with Betfair at 1.50 am shortly after the Nuneaton result came out

MTimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

Greek TV now reporting debris field sighted by airborne SAR crews.

I've just seen a tweet saying CNN are reporting a "fight in the cockpit"

But I can't see the actual CNN report, so caveat emptor

Sounds like CNN are adding up 2 and 2 to make 17, as they usually do when they don't understand what is actually happening or has happened.

They have to make their hourly quota of "breaking news" flashing banners.

Don't start me!

If almost everything I hear about a complicated subject I actually understand (computers and aeroplanes in my case) is so obviously bollocks, then how's about the rest of the stuff, on which I rely on them to inform me?

That sums up a lot of the media tbh. Probably why specialist publications / websites are still alive and kicking i.e. why i come to PB to read about politics, polls and betting on politics.

And why I can't watch most TV shows about CBW terrorism, and my wife hates medical procedurals. Unless it is so bad we can fully suspend our belief.

TheWhiteRabbit

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

TSE means 2/1 against. His point was that was after the Tory result in the super marginal Nuneaton should have demonstrated that a Tory majority was firmly on the cards.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

Nuneaton was the point that people started to realise the majority might be possible, and started frantically getting out of the 1/10 NOM bets from easier in the day. Or was that just me?

From (a hazy) memory the majority was still odds-against until quite late in the night, maybe around Gower?

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, presumably Morgoth is Stalin?

Anorak said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

Must warn PBers I've got a Lord Of The Rings themed thread coming up in about 10 days time.

Spoiler Alert: I've cast Jeremy Corbyn as Sauron, a long vanquished enemy makes a return to the surprise of Middle England and the Labour right.

I've cast John McDonnell as Saruman, Milne as Wormtongue.

And urge the Labour right to do the charge of the Rohirrim at Pelennor Fields

Nigel as the Balrog?

Haven't cast those roles. Yet.

Norm

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what tonight's ComRes phone poll will show.

Is interesting this market doesn't respond to the bad for Remain online polls but does move to the good for Remain phone polls.

And real money being staked, nearly £13million so far

Yes, I think it's brave. What if the phone polls are wrong and the onlines right?

I don't go big on conspiracy theories but there's an awful lot of wealthy people who'd be severely inconvenienced by Leave. A substantial contribution towards the £13m is money well invested for them especially if they can create a sense of disarray and helplessness among Leavers.

Sunil_Prasannan

More of a Star Wars fan, personally

Wanderer

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

10/1 post-Exit and 2/1 post-Nuneaton (about 2 1/2 hours apart iirc). I don't remember the exact numbers myself.

Pulpstar

JackW said:

Pulpstar said:

Mind you that lot implies NH, PA, OH may well go one way with AZ, NV and CO the other.

Very early days with Trump having secured the nomination and Clinton still in a race albeit one she will win.

It's too easy to get drawn in at this point but we are still almost six months from polling day. Post convention and Labor Day is truly where the first steps of the final lap begins.

Are you rowing back from HRCWBPOTUS @JackW - I agree the race has a long way to go yet

saddened

Anorak said:

dr_spyn said:

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

AKM, I think. IANAGN.

Best guess is it's an AK74, mainly because that's what it says in the text.

Roger

No wonder Mrs Gove is worried about women chasing after Michael

Sean_F

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

I wouldn't recommend A Game of Thrones to young children.

blackburn63

Pulpstar said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

10-1 after exit poll
2-1 against after Nuneaton result

And about 1.5 as Ed Balls was losing his seat.

OK thanks I was at a count so not really aware what happened.

Those that were aware should be mindful, every time a bet is struck there's a loser.

FrancisUrquhart

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

I wouldn't recommend A Game of Thrones to young children.

Is it the over use of tits or the dragons on screen that make it unsuitable? ;-)

Sean_F

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

MTimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

I wouldn't recommend A Game of Thrones to young children.

Is it the over use of tits or the dragons on screen that make it unsuitable? ;-)

No. It's Little Sparrow. Dangerous exposure to religious ideas.

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

I wouldn't recommend A Game of Thrones to young children.

Is it the over use of tits or the dragons on screen that make it unsuitable? ;-)

I'm thinking more of the novels in the series. I wouldn't want to have to explain to an 11 year old what a Myrish Swamp is, for example.

TheScreamingEagles

Wanderer said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

blackburn63 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Remind me what the chance of a hung parliament was a month before the election?

It was between 1/8 and 1/10 on the day of the election!!!

A Tory majority was 10/1 after the exit poll came out.

After it came out? Extraordinary

Yup. You could get 2/1 on a Tory majority after the Nuneaton result came out.

2/1 on? That doesn't make sense, you said it was 10/1 against.

10/1 post-Exit and 2/1 post-Nuneaton (about 2 1/2 hours apart iirc). I don't remember the exact numbers myself.

William Hill was offering odds of 10/1 on Thursday night on the Conservatives having a majority even after exit polls indicated a surprise surge by the party.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3075515/Bookies-Ladbrokes-William-Hill-hammering-shock-General-Election-majority-win-Tories.html

And after Nuneaton a Tory majority was 2.94 with Betfair

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/664674/#Comment_664674

williamglenn

saddened said:

Anorak said:

dr_spyn said:

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

AKM, I think. IANAGN.

Best guess is it's an AK74, mainly because that's what it says in the text.

Liz Kendall joining Militant is almost as much of a turn up as Nick Palmer joining Momentum.

blackburn63

Sean_F said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

If you were to back every favourite in racing at SP during a calendar year you'd quickly go skint. Its been the same forever.

Richard_Nabavi

Sean_F said:

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

Yes, and long may it continue.

Richard_Nabavi

blackburn63 said:

Sean_F said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

If you were to back every favourite in racing at SP during a calendar year you'd quickly go skint. Its been the same forever.

Actually, that is the opposite point. If you lay the favourites consistently you'll also go bust. The odds on horses are astonishingly right.

Luckyguy1983

Have we had any allegations of shadowy millionnaires supporting the Remain price yet?

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

Norm

williamglenn said:

saddened said:

Anorak said:

dr_spyn said:

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

AKM, I think. IANAGN.

Best guess is it's an AK74, mainly because that's what it says in the text.

Liz Kendall joining Militant is almost as much of a turn up as Nick Palmer joining Momentum.

Seems like that little Green PPB sketch of her having fun with nukes once Jezza's back was turned wasn't too far off the mark.

peter_from_putney

Betfair's 6.8 (6.5 net) on 60% - 65% voting REMAIN looks like decent value (or at least reasonably priced insurance for those backing REMAIN to do less well).

FrancisUrquhart

http://order-order.com/2016/05/19/remains-gillian-duffy-moment/

its the "I;m never coming back to wherever it is" is the best part.

"Good evening Wembley"

...is it Wembley, not sure, crowd don't look too pleased when I said that...oohhh we are in Paris....

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://order-order.com/2016/05/19/remains-gillian-duffy-moment/

its the "I;m never coming back to wherever it is" is the best part.

She sounds like she posts on here.

TheWhiteRabbit

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

Doesn't the MailOnline prop up the print version?

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

In Rushbridger's mind none of these examples count because they aren't proper news or something or other to do with Murdoch...

dr_spyn

williamglenn said:

saddened said:

Anorak said:

dr_spyn said:

Liz Kendall using an AK47 or something like it.

https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/733293692140855297

AKM, I think. IANAGN.

Best guess is it's an AK74, mainly because that's what it says in the text.

Liz Kendall joining Militant is almost as much of a turn up as Nick Palmer joining Momentum.

Had thought it was a mistype, but there is an AK74, as well as the AK47.

http://rbth.com/news/2015/05/07/kalashnikov_to_show_off_upgraded_ak-74m_at_victory_day_parade_45825.html

blackburn63

I think what lots of people fail to realise that every time a person places a bet on betfair another person accepts the bet. Yes, lots are arbers and traders, but there is plenty of money queueing up to lay Remain.

If Remain go 1.10 I'll be happy to risk £100 to win £1000

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, does show the error of people lumping all fantasy together as if it's all the same. It's arguably the most varied of genres, from black-and-white morality in Lord of the Rings, to Game of Thrones grimdark, Pratchett's comedy, children's books, stuff set in the real world, stuff set in (sometimes literally) fairyland.

justin124

I am not into betting at all , but if the current police investigations led to - say - 20 by-elections in Tory marginal seats - half of which were then lost - could the Bookies then claim that the 2015 election did NOT result in a Tory overall majority?

williamglenn

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

In Rushbridger's mind none of these examples count because they aren't proper news or something or other to do with Murdoch...

Did they 'take a principled stand over Suez'? I love the conceit that any business failure can be explained as cruel punishment for past virtues.

Luckyguy1983

Sean_F said:

Anorak said:

This a bit old, but very WTF. Apols if already posted. I've been away.

Head Teacher: "Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, The Hunger Games, and Terry Pratchett, to mention only a few of the modern world's 'must-haves', contain deeply insensitive and addictive material which I am certain encourages difficult behaviour in children; yet they can be bought without a special licence, and can damage the sensitive subconscious brains of young children, many of whom may be added to the current statistics of mentally ill young children."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/06/fantasy-books-such-as-game-of-thrones-can-damage-childrens-brain/

EDIT: The school seems a bit, erm, unusual. "State examinations are not offered at The Acorn School as they create unnecessary pressures that can detract from true academic, personal and spiritual growth." Righto.

I wouldn't recommend A Game of Thrones to young children.

Nor would I. And I do think it's quite damaging. A lot of these American shows start off with quite an original and clever concept and within a couple of seasons morph into an intravenous diet of softcore and gratuitous violence. Rots the brain.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

blackburn63 said:

Sean_F said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

If you were to back every favourite in racing at SP during a calendar year you'd quickly go skint. Its been the same forever.

Actually, that is the opposite point. If you lay the favourites consistently you'll also go bust. The odds on horses are astonishingly right.

You need to back decent horses from ~ 7-2 to ~ 16-1 2nd/3rd (E/W) favourites with preferably an odds on favourite in 8 or 9 runner races that also have a couple of 50-1 poor horses.

That's the starter for ten on racing. Sprinter Sacre fulfilled the criteria at Cheltenham

FrancisUrquhart

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

In Rushbridger's mind none of these examples count because they aren't proper news or something or other to do with Murdoch...

Did they 'take a principled stand over Suez'? I love the conceit that any business failure can be explained as cruel punishment for past virtues.

I know its hilarious. Half a century ago and it is still the reason why their business is failing. The man is f##king bonkers and now he is in charge of an Oxford college.

Plato_Says

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

For evidence of why Rushbridger was away with the fairies when it came to business management. It still has not dawned on him that the BBC model will destroy the Guardian eventually.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2016/05/alan-rusbridger-paywalls-funding-schemes-and-future-media
"Meanwhile there are still, notwithstanding a relatively muted white paper, numerous knives out for the poor old BBC. Its unforgivable crime seems to be to have a business model that still – sort of – works."

"For most of its 195-year life, the Guardian has struggled to make money – just as the Observer has probably not turned a profit since its principled stand over Suez in 1956. Quite often (as today), the Guardian has lost more than it should, or could, in any given year. Clearly, the business model needs to change. But looking around the world, I don’t think that anyone can truthfully claim to have cracked it."

Erhhhh....The Daily Mail, Fox News, .....to name two, make good money.

I imagine The Times are profitable, or at least close to it. 400,000 subscribers, I would estimate an ASP of around £75 per year which is at least £30m plus advertising revenue and any additional money they make from the Times+ offers. If the website isn't profitable I would be very surprised.

It's making money £11m http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/23/times-titles-report-pre-tax-profit-of-almost-11m

Pulpstar

justin124 said:

I am not into betting at all , but if the current police investigations led to - say - 20 by-elections in Tory marginal seats - half of which were then lost - could the Bookies then claim that the 2015 election did NOT result in a Tory overall majority?

No.

Scott_P

justin124 said:

I am not into betting at all , but if the current police investigations led to - say - 20 by-elections in Tory marginal seats - half of which were then lost - could the Bookies then claim that the 2015 election did NOT result in a Tory overall majority?

If that happened there would also be by-elections in lots of Labour and all the Lib Dem seats

blackburn63

Richard_Nabavi said:

blackburn63 said:

Sean_F said:

TonyE said:

Looks like Remain is down 'Free money' levels now. Betting markets are rarely wrong, odds are rarely that far out.

Leavers should probably now be looking at what they will be doing with their lives after June 23rd.

Betting markets are frequently wrong. Most people bet with their hearts, not their heads.

If you were to back every favourite in racing at SP during a calendar year you'd quickly go skint. Its been the same forever.

Actually, that is the opposite point. If you lay the favourites consistently you'll also go bust. The odds on horses are astonishingly right.

That's why I said at SP. The chances of either backing or laying at close to SP are impossible, even without taking into account commission.

A tiny % of betfair players make a profit, the vast majority are layers and traders.