Labour's other big problem is illustrated by the Opinium opinion poll that we publish today. The party's 10-point headline lead, which is in line with most other recent polls, is not the most important figure.
The anguish number for Labour is that a near-majority, 46% of respondents, continue to blame Britain's economic situation on the last government, as opposed to only 29% who place culpability on the coalition.
A majority don't trust either party with the economy. Of those choosing a team, more say they would prefer to have David Cameron and George Osborne in charge of the economy than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
Why does it matter if 46% blame Labour for the economic woes? Surely they are either ConDem pledges or blame Labour but are voting for them anyway? In other words, it's priced in to VI.
There's a school of thought that says, since the economy is the biggest issue facing the country (as per the Mori issues index), people may choose the way they vote in 2015 based largely on the economy.
Now are they going to vote for the people perceived to have caused the economic problems and/or the people who may make the economy worse.
By the sounds of it they think both parties will make it worse...
Using the company’s “Wisdom Index” method, which asks voters to predict the result of the next election rather than which party they would back, Labour is on 34 per cent, up two points on last month. The Tories are unchanged on 29 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats down one point on 15 per cent. The UK Independence Party is down to 13, adding to evidence that its recent surge is fading.
As you know, I utterly disagree. What is your verdict on Crossrail? Is that an expensive white elephant as well?
No because that will be used by commuters and is unlikely to have premium fares (as with the current HS1 out to Kent).
As I've pointed out in the past, the premium fares on HS2 are for a faster journey. Indeed, a massively faster journey if you travel from the north and don't have to cross London to reach Victoria.
IMHO Crossrail only makes sense in conjunction with Boris Island and a development of the Thames corridor.
It also makes sense in relieving the main east-west cross-Capital Tube line, the Central. My only gripe regarding Crossrail was that if the Central line had been built to main-line diameter (say 16ft rather than 12ft) it could have carried main-line trains 113 years ago, thus avoiding the need to build Crossrail! And the former outposts of North Weald and Ongar wouldn't have been served by titchy little Tube-sized trains (we have to get steam locomotives and carriages to the Epping Ongar Railway by road!).
BTW HS2 won't serve Victoria - that's the Crossrail 2 proposal (SW to NE).
But the Central line is packed during the rush hours, and mostly fine at other times. You are spending £15 billion to relieve pressure on a line for 3-4 hours a day.
Which is fine if you are looking for the future and want to increase capacity to allow growth. Yet it seems rather blind to say looking at future capacity is fine for Crossrail and London, but not the wider network.
And HS2 will increase capacity for both passengers and freight on the existing network, with none of the madness of the WCML upgrade that cost taxpayers at least £9 billion for very limited improvements.
We can already get from London to Birmingham in 1hr 22 mins, why spend 32 billion trying to shave off a few minutes?
For the reasons I have given passim. Capacity is king: passenger and freight numbers on the rail network have increased massively over the last few years, and it looks as though that trend will continue. Local improvements can help, but only so much (similar improvements are being done on LU, such as more frequent and longer trains).
But there comes a time when a new line is needed. By shifting many high-speed services off existing tracks, you free up a great deal of capacity for freight and local passenger services that find it hard to coexist with high-speed services.
But let me your the question another way: why should we pay £15 billion for Crossrail just so rich (b/w)ankers can get to work a couple of minutes quicker in the City? After all, London already has a magnificent public transport infrastructure that any other city in Britain would love to have.
Although I always preferred the look of Stanier's Coronation class to the inferior A4's. ;-)
Wealthy bankers are the only people who work in Greater London? Remember, UNLIKE HS2, Crossrail will be a local route for local people, and won't have those dreadful "parkway" stations miles away from the nearest built-up area! I have to confess I do have local bias - Ilford station is on the Crossrail route. I only wish there were links restored at either Leyton or Newbury Park (which is actually a bit nearer to me than Ilford itself) to get main-line trains back onto the Epping and Hainault branches!
If - if - capacity is king, then why do we need an over-engineered 200 mph line when a "traditional" 140 mph line will do?
Because the cost of building a new 140MPH line will not be much different from a 200MPH line.(although the stated HS2 speed is 'up to' 250 MPH). In fact, a line with a lower maximum speed that handled freight might actually cost more: high speed lines often have fierce gradients - often 2.5-4% which means reduced civil engineering costs, and the trains are much lighter. As with everything else, it is a trade-off.
Also note that it is very difficult to engineer a line that can cope with both high-speed passenger and local and freight services at the same time. The slower trains get in the way of the high-speed ones, and the higher track cant on high-speed curves is a barrier to many types of freight trains, especially loose bulk goods such as coal.
I was having fun with the bankers bit - just turning around some of the arguments used about HS2.
So there you go, we don't need a 250mph line if the gradients/curves preclude extra freight capacity.
Also there's the M6 Toll effect. Namely the M6 Toll motorway opened as a turnpike to divert M6 traffic away from the Birmingham urban area, but several years down the line, because the road is tolled, it is running below capacity as commuters and hauliers use the old M6 to reduce their costs. I am sure something similar will happen to HS2 if the price differentials with existing lines are similar to the premium fares charged on HS1 between London and Kent.
BTW if you (or other PB trainspotters) haven't been, last few tickets available for Epping Ongar's Tube 150 event, the remaining days being tomorrow and Monday (more tickets available for Monday):
Urrrm, no. The high-speed line will reduce the number of high-speed trains on existing lines, creating new paths for freight and local passenger services on those lines.
The M6 Toll comparison is interesting, but IMHO bogus. It is an individual's choice which to use. That will not be the case on the railways, which are heavily regulated wrt paths.
And again you do not acknowledge that comparing prices for HS1 local services to Kent is like comparing apples and oranges: the journey on HS1 is quicker, sometimes much so.
Anyway, I doubt we're going to agree, so perhaps it's best to leave this for tonight and save the thread for meaningful discussions of Scottish AV referendum polling by cats.
Good luck with the Tube 150 event! Sadly I cannot make it (or more accurately, Mrs J won't let me go).
Thanks, I will be on the railway tomorrow and Monday (Monday as a passenger in fact!).
But I will point out, anecdotally, that there is an M6Toll effect on HS1 - I haven't seen St Pancras platforms 11-13 at rush hour, but I have seen Stratford International during the evening peak - it is much quieter than you might expect! And individuals can choose whether to travel to Ashford or Chatham via St Pancras or via either of Victoria or Charing Cross!
Labour's lowest lead with YouGov since November 2012
The poll also shows that among the over-60s and the 18 to 24-year-olds the Tories lead Labour by 37% to 31%, underlining research this month which found support for the Conservatives among the under-30s had more than doubled over the past five years.
LABOUR is considering plans for a part-nationalisation of the railways that could see the country’s key main lines being brought back into state ownership.
Under the scheme, franchises for private companies to run trains along major routes such as the West Coast main line would not be renewed as they expire but would instead be run by a state-owned company.
The plan, among options being studied by Maria Eagle, the shadow transport secretary, would be similar to the InterCity network run by British Rail from 1966 until privatisation in 1996.
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times, in a piece headlined "Miliband in the Danger Zone"
In our latest poll, conducted after last week’s spending cuts, David Cameron and George Osborne hold a 10-point lead over the two Eds — Miliband and Balls — when people are asked who they trust more to run the economy.
That, above all, is the verdict Labour must shift if it is to secure pole position ahead of the next election.
Given their source's previous "scoops" included the USS Cole being hit by an Israeli cruise missile and how 9/11 was a Saudii/Bush administration plot.....you think they might have checked it carefully...
"Labour's lowest lead with YouGov since November 2012"
There is definitely a narrative building up here with recent polling showing a declining Labour Lead as midterm blues wane and we head towards the build up to the next GE. No doubt about it that Opposition parties fair far better in on line polls than with telephone ones. Also, a while ago I raised the possibility of the return of the shy Tory syndrome that caught the pollsters out back in 1992.
This phenomenon of online polling being driven by more motivated opposition support might be worth a thread. I know that before the last GE I regularly took part in YouGov/Angus Reid polling, but after the GE I simple have not bothered. I do wonder if there is a risk with online polling that sees active Opposition warriors becoming the driving force here rather nailed on voters who will turn up in the polling booth?
We saw a real 'Cleggism/Libdem' bounce in the online polls before the last GE which didn't then materialise at the GE. Are we seeing the same with the current UKIP bounce in the polls and local elections? And if you take away that UKIP bounce, could Labour's current position in the polls be far more precarious for an Opposition party seeking to be either the biggest party or a majority forming Government?
TSE - Although yougov has had one or two Tory leads amongst under 25s this month, the trend remains for them to support Labour
From Anthony Wells, Taking an average across the whole of June so far YouGov’s crossbreak for under 25s has the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 38% – a significantly higher level of Labour support.
Have We seen the next Frankel. Kingman fell out of the stalls, was clueless but still destroyed some well very well thought of horses at Newmarket yesterday , 14/1 for the 2000 guineas. A royal price?
Should I be worried that Toby Young and Harry Cole are retweeting my tweets?
Edit: and so is a Scottish Government minister.
Not at all. But turning your 'concerns' at this development into a post boasting about being retweeted with name checks does appear a bit needy. On your part.
Alistair Darling has broken ranks with senior Labour figures over the HS2 high-speed rail link and a move by the party to pledge an “in/out” referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
The former chancellor and transport secretary uses an interview with The Sunday Telegraph to claim that the costly transport project will “suck money” out of the railway budget which would be better spent on other network improvements.
Should I be worried that Toby Young and Harry Cole are retweeting my tweets?
Edit: and so is a Scottish Government minister.
Not at all. But turning your 'concerns' at this development into a post boasting about being retweeted with name checks does appear a bit needy. On your part.
Should I be worried that Toby Young and Harry Cole are retweeting my tweets?
Edit: and so is a Scottish Government minister.
Not at all. But turning your 'concerns' at this development into a post boasting about being retweeted with name checks does appear a bit needy. On your part.
Deep down, I'm very shallow.
It reminds me of both Glee and the Big Bang Theory, that is a killer combination.
Comments
But I will point out, anecdotally, that there is an M6Toll effect on HS1 - I haven't seen St Pancras platforms 11-13 at rush hour, but I have seen Stratford International during the evening peak - it is much quieter than you might expect! And individuals can choose whether to travel to Ashford or Chatham via St Pancras or via either of Victoria or Charing Cross!
Labour 38
Con 33
LD 11
UKIP 11
Labour's lowest lead with YouGov since November 2012
The poll also shows that among the over-60s and the 18 to 24-year-olds the Tories lead Labour by 37% to 31%, underlining research this month which found support for the Conservatives among the under-30s had more than doubled over the past five years.
LABOUR is considering plans for a part-nationalisation of the railways that could see the country’s key main lines being brought back into state ownership.
Under the scheme, franchises for private companies to run trains along major routes such as the West Coast main line would not be renewed as they expire but would instead be run by a state-owned company.
The plan, among options being studied by Maria Eagle, the shadow transport secretary, would be similar to the InterCity network run by British Rail from 1966 until privatisation in 1996.
In our latest poll, conducted after last week’s spending cuts, David Cameron and George Osborne hold a 10-point lead over the two Eds — Miliband and Balls — when people are asked who they trust more to run the economy.
That, above all, is the verdict Labour must shift if it is to secure pole position ahead of the next election.
I would expect Labour to win fewer Conservative-Labour marginals than one might assume from the national swing.
Edit: and so is a Scottish Government minister.
I blame Osborne....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BN8_eomCEAAYvMk.jpg
http://www.guardian.co.uk/info/2013/jun/30/taken-down
Given their source's previous "scoops" included the USS Cole being hit by an Israeli cruise missile and how 9/11 was a Saudii/Bush administration plot.....you think they might have checked it carefully...
There is definitely a narrative building up here with recent polling showing a declining Labour Lead as midterm blues wane and we head towards the build up to the next GE. No doubt about it that Opposition parties fair far better in on line polls than with telephone ones. Also, a while ago I raised the possibility of the return of the shy Tory syndrome that caught the pollsters out back in 1992.
This phenomenon of online polling being driven by more motivated opposition support might be worth a thread. I know that before the last GE I regularly took part in YouGov/Angus Reid polling, but after the GE I simple have not bothered. I do wonder if there is a risk with online polling that sees active Opposition warriors becoming the driving force here rather nailed on voters who will turn up in the polling booth?
We saw a real 'Cleggism/Libdem' bounce in the online polls before the last GE which didn't then materialise at the GE. Are we seeing the same with the current UKIP bounce in the polls and local elections? And if you take away that UKIP bounce, could Labour's current position in the polls be far more precarious for an Opposition party seeking to be either the biggest party or a majority forming Government?
From Anthony Wells, Taking an average across the whole of June so far YouGov’s crossbreak for under 25s has the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 38% – a significantly higher level of Labour support.
Have We seen the next Frankel. Kingman fell out of the stalls, was clueless but still destroyed some well very well thought of horses at Newmarket yesterday , 14/1 for the 2000 guineas. A royal price?
Alistair Darling has broken ranks with senior Labour figures over the HS2 high-speed rail link and a move by the party to pledge an “in/out” referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
The former chancellor and transport secretary uses an interview with The Sunday Telegraph to claim that the costly transport project will “suck money” out of the railway budget which would be better spent on other network improvements.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/10150530/HS2-will-suck-up-cash-warns-Alistair-Darling.html
It reminds me of both Glee and the Big Bang Theory, that is a killer combination.