We aren't seeing narrow Trump leads in Minnesota, Maine or New Jersey.
Minnesota and Pennsylvania (and New York) do show signs of moving towards Trump, while not yet in the Red column.
Early days, though, admittedly...
The reader may be helped by seeing those Clinton poll leads since March, in chronological order: Pennsylvania 5, 8, 13, 3, 0, 15. New York 25, 23, 19, 20, 16, 18, 16, 29, 20, 19, 26.
OFFICIAL RALLINGS & THRASHER LOCAL ELECTION FIGURES
Labour 33% Conservatives 32% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 12%
A swing to Labour of 4% since 2015, and of 1% to Labour since 2011, the comparative point in the last electoral cycle
If nothing changes between now and then, we should expect Labour to lose by 10% in 2020, ceding perhaps another 15-20 seats to the Tories, on current boundaries...
OFFICIAL RALLINGS & THRASHER LOCAL ELECTION FIGURES
Labour 33% Conservatives 32% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 12%
A swing to Labour of 4% since 2015, and of 1% to Labour since 2011, the comparative point in the last electoral cycle
If nothing changes between now and then, we should expect Labour to lose by 10% in 2020, ceding perhaps another 15-20 seats to the Tories, on current boundaries...
Why would there be a swing away from Labour in 2020, when there was a swing towards them compared to the comparative point in the electoral cycle.
Historical precedent would suggest a 3-5% Tory lead in 2020 on the basis of these figures.
I've not seen the Rallings & Thrasher projections yet.
A straw in the wind for CON minority in 2020 perhaps. But very early days of course
Academics say the numbers are very good for Tories.
No they don't. There has been a 2% swing to Labour as compared to this point in the last electoral cycle, which suggests Tory minority.
Figures I have seen quoted from academic modelling are predicted 39/30 & 37/30 for 2020 and 92% Tories to win.
Indeed - there is an extremely high probability Tories will get most votes in 2020, but, as 2010 showed, that is not necessarily the same as getting a majority.
If there was a swing to Labour in 2016 as compared to 2011, then it follows to expect a swing to Labour in 2020 as compared to 2015. And any swing to Labour no matter how small most likely means no Tory majority.
39/30 or 37/30 is tory majority...which are the two sets of figures released by two different academic models. But as I say in other post, lots of flux & uncertainty with change of leader(s) & high potential for choppy economy.
I am going to wait and see at least 12 months before even starting to think about my betting positions for 2020. At the moment there is no real signs corbynism is sweeping the nation, but a long way to go.
A lot depends on the Lib Dem vote. Remember the Tories won in 2015 not because there was a swing from Labour to Tory. But the LD vote collapsed.
There was a Lab to Tory swing where it mattered.
Had Labour not lost any seats to the Tories, the Tories wouldn't have a majority.
Wrong ! There was a net swing of 2 from Con to Lab. [ OK - not enough ]. But that did not win the election for the Tories.
It was the 27 gains the Tories made from the Lib Dems.
No, It was a swing of 0.3%
Con 36.9 (+0.8%) Lab 30.4 (+1.4%)
1.4-0.8 = 0.6 0.6/2 = 0.3%
Those are UK figures. In England there was a swing from Con to Lab of just over 1 per cent.
Not that Lynton Crosby is exactly a nice, polite fellow either, Khan won by ruthlessly destroying Zac as inexperienced and out of touch, he won, he may not be particularly pleasant but he does know how to win a campaign and managed to successfully rebuff the Crosby attacks on him
Lynton is a bit of a one-trick pony, the trick in question being "Let's Be A Bit Racist". Identify a group and go "ew" a lot, whether it's Eastern Europeans (2005), Europe (2009), or Scots (2015). I assume adopting a similar technique for London 2016 (Muslims!) failed because there are enough Muslims in London to render the attack blunt.
Not that Lynton Crosby is exactly a nice, polite fellow either, Khan won by ruthlessly destroying Zac as inexperienced and out of touch, he won, he may not be particularly pleasant but he does know how to win a campaign and managed to successfully rebuff the Crosby attacks on him
Lynton is a bit of a one-trick pony, the trick in question being "Let's Be A Bit Racist". Identify a group and go "ew" a lot, whether it's Eastern Europeans (2005), Europe (2009), or Scots (2015). I assume adopting a similar technique for London 2016 (Muslims!) failed because there are enough Muslims in London to render the attack blunt.
OFFICIAL RALLINGS & THRASHER LOCAL ELECTION FIGURES
Labour 33% Conservatives 32% Lib Dems 14% UKIP 12%
A swing to Labour of 4% since 2015, and of 1% to Labour since 2011, the comparative point in the last electoral cycle
If nothing changes between now and then, we should expect Labour to lose by 10% in 2020, ceding perhaps another 15-20 seats to the Tories, on current boundaries...
Why would there be a swing away from Labour in 2020, when there was a swing towards them compared to the comparative point in the electoral cycle.
Historical precedent would suggest a 3-5% Tory lead in 2020 on the basis of these figures.
Comments
Pennsylvania 5, 8, 13, 3, 0, 15.
New York 25, 23, 19, 20, 16, 18, 16, 29, 20, 19, 26.
Labour 33%
Conservatives 32%
Lib Dems 14%
UKIP 12%
A swing to Labour of 4% since 2015, and of 1% to Labour since 2011, the comparative point in the last electoral cycle
Historical precedent would suggest a 3-5% Tory lead in 2020 on the basis of these figures.
SPD 21%
Greens 13%
AfD 12%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
"Greek debt crisis threatens to flare up ahead of Brexit vote"
Oh dear, not that again!
Just don't....
You're welcome.