I've been out campaigning since 9 am and spent an hour or so with Zac. And yes, I do have a photo of him holding a pint correctly. Soft drink, mind, as he is on a 24 hour tour of London and must be sober.
The polls on 1st preference are 9 points difference, about the average in London for most elections since 2000. But Labour admit turnout will be poorer because of Livingstone.
Also, many people say the polls have a forecast turnout of 50% . I don't know how true.
Labour have told me for a while they will lose Barnet and Camden as well as Ealing and Hillingdon. They reiterated tonight. They have said Brent and Harrow under pressure too a couple of weeks ago.
Lots of senior politicians reckon turnout will be 28 to 33%. Could it really be that low? Well, Boris/Ken got 38% so it is possible. Labour are fearful at 34 and under. Tories expect 34 or under!
But 2nd prefs may make Khan nailed on.
I still maintain Tories will win Merton. Data says so. Famous last words?
Interesting. Do you think there will be a large ticket splitting voting. People voting for tory/ukip in assembley but Khan in Mayoral. I feel like Zac just seems to out of touch to win, I mean sure he can win in (very) wealthy Richmond but in harrow, Ealing etc? No.
There seems to be a new YouGov of Labour members, showing that Corbyn would get 62% if there was a new leadership election. Confirms my own impression:
Interesting. Do you think there will be a large ticket splitting voting. People voting for tory/ukip in assembley but Khan in Mayoral. I feel like Zac just seems to out of touch to win, I mean sure he can win in (very) wealthy Richmond but in harrow, Ealing etc? No.
Dixie's partly relying on what Labour friends tell him, but I wonder if they're pulling his leg - i really doubt if anyone has a clear picture of Assembly voting.
I've been a bit sidetracked by personal stuff this month so have no recent personal impression, except that people in my non-political circles (work, poker) aren't talking about the election much at all. Ticket-splitting seems to me unlikely, as people who bother to vote will tend to be politically motivated - I don't get the impression that either candidate has a huge personal following. Presumably the Standard will endorse Zac tomorrow, but probably in mild terms. My best guess is that Sadiq will do it by 54-46 or something similar.
The more I see of Trump the more I like him and I speak as a Ron & Rand Paul guy. Given how the left is incapable nowadays of any rational debate on immigration and such issues and just resorts to insult after insult, you need somebody like Trump who will not only simply shrug it off but who will take the fight back to them. Up the fight, don't back down to people who will hate you and slur you no matter what.
The more I see of Trump the more I like him and I speak as a Ron & Rand Paul guy. Given how the left is incapable nowadays of any rational debate on immigration and such issues and just resorts to insult after insult, you need somebody like Trump who will not only simply shrug it off but who will take the fight back to them. Up the fight, don't back down to people who will hate you and slur you no matter what.
Trump 2016.
He is a rabble rouser, not the same thing as a president
The more I see of Trump the more I like him and I speak as a Ron & Rand Paul guy. Given how the left is incapable nowadays of any rational debate on immigration and such issues and just resorts to insult after insult, you need somebody like Trump who will not only simply shrug it off but who will take the fight back to them. Up the fight, don't back down to people who will hate you and slur you no matter what.
Trump 2016.
He is a rabble rouser, not the same thing as a president
I'd say the rabble rousers are Obama and co who egg on groups like Black Lives Matter.
The more I see of Trump the more I like him and I speak as a Ron & Rand Paul guy. Given how the left is incapable nowadays of any rational debate on immigration and such issues and just resorts to insult after insult, you need somebody like Trump who will not only simply shrug it off but who will take the fight back to them. Up the fight, don't back down to people who will hate you and slur you no matter what.
Trump 2016.
He is a rabble rouser, not the same thing as a president
I'd say the rabble rousers are Obama and co who egg on groups like Black Lives Matter.
The GOP cannot afford to completely alienate minorities if they are to win, white males alone are not enough and Obama is more cerebral than egger on
LOL looks like the "Labour are anti-semitic" smears (even though the far left are vehmently anti the Israeli occupation and persecution of the Palestinians not anti semitic) have utterly failed and even back fired on the Tories. Labour are increasing their lead!!
Tory racists and Islamophobes die in your rage!!
Lets hope the failure of this disgraceful campaign against Sadiq Khan means people will now investigate the blatant Islamophobia in the Tory party,
The flocking of left wingers here to offer up various unconvincing defences of Khan shows they are panicking about the latest revelation. Who exactly was Sadiq Khan referring to as "Uncle Toms" if he wasn't calling anyone by that term? That's an even worse argument than trying to distract by pointing to what some blogger said about traitors.
Watch the video. The answer is that he was talking about nobody, about a policy he said you couldn't follow, and that he didn't follow. Instead, he said you need to speak to critical friends like Quilliam. It is a lesson in two things: First, try not to use the language of slavery and Jim Crow in South-Eastern England. Second, politicians should never talk about hypotheticals.
It sounded as if he said "Uncle Tom" (not "Uncle Toms"), as in "Uncle Tom Cobbley and all" (i.e. everybody).
LOL looks like the "Labour are anti-semitic" smears (even though the far left are vehmently anti the Israeli occupation and persecution of the Palestinians not anti semitic) have utterly failed and even back fired on the Tories. Labour are increasing their lead!!
Tory racists and Islamophobes die in your rage!!
Lets hope the failure of this disgraceful campaign against Sadiq Khan means people will now investigate the blatant Islamophobia in the Tory party,
In London maybe. About 88% of the population live elsewhere.
It's absolutely irrelevant, but I do enjoy seeing her lose.
What's the German for schadenfreude?
Now that Trump is The Man, the party needs to start coalescing around him. This means more pressure on Sanders to withdraw so the Dems can do the same.
Cruz out today, hopefully Corbyn out on Friday so we can have a proper contest in 2020.
Corbyn isn't going anywhere before the end of June.
No matter how bad the results are?
They know that they have to keep things together until the referendum is out of the way - Labour may be going mad - but they get that they can't have a leadership challenge midway through a campaign
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
After the nastiness of the exchanges between them today over the Enquirer story, I think a bit of water needs to have to flow before any reconciliation can happen.
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
The Party has to start uniting around him as well - it is a two-way process. And he, at the moment, is in a more powerful position that anyone else in the Republican leadership - he has beaten all of their preferred candidates.
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
After the nastiness of the exchanges between them today over the Enquirer story, I think a bit of water needs to have to flow before any reconciliation can happen.
Indeed it will take some time. All the more reason to get on with it.
I wonder how conciliatory Trump will be this evening.
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
The Party has to start uniting around him as well - it is a two-way process. And he, at the moment, is in a more powerful position that anyone else in the Republican leadership - he has beaten all of their preferred candidates.
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
After the nastiness of the exchanges between them today over the Enquirer story, I think a bit of water needs to have to flow before any reconciliation can happen.
Indeed it will take some time. All the more reason to get on with it.
I wonder how conciliatory Trump will be this evening.
He should be allowed a brief moment of triumph and start taking the fight to HRC - but some kind words towards the people he has beaten would be appropriate.
Yes. Probably in about 10 minutes. I imagine he's on the phone with Cruz right now.
That doesn't sound like a Trump thing to be doing. He has never struck me as the sort to engage in that sort of nicety.
He has to start uniting the party.
After the nastiness of the exchanges between them today over the Enquirer story, I think a bit of water needs to have to flow before any reconciliation can happen.
Indeed it will take some time. All the more reason to get on with it.
I wonder how conciliatory Trump will be this evening.
I'm sure he'll be conciliatory. This question is whether he launch straight into shock and awe against Clinton or bask in the moment.
With events like this, it makes House of Cards feel rather tame! If someone tried to get a show made with the story of Trump's rise to the top of his party, the networks would laugh at you
With events like this, it makes House of Cards feel rather tame! If someone tried to get a show made with the story of Trump's rise to the top of his party, the networks would laugh at you
Everyone, think back to June 16th last year, when Trump announced his candidacy.
How many PBers at that time thought Trump would be the GOP nominee? Raise your hands. If you say you did, you're lying!
With events like this, it makes House of Cards feel rather tame! If someone tried to get a show made with the story of Trump's rise to the top of his party, the networks would laugh at you
Everyone, think back to June 16th last year, when Trump announced his candidacy.
How many PBers at that time thought Trump would be the GOP nominee? Raise your hands. If you say you did, you're lying!
I thought he had a good chance. Can't remember whether I posted about it.
In terms of betting on the Republican nominee, when the end game arrived, it was all settled very quickly. Less than two weeks ago Trump's odds had weakened from around 1/5 to touch even money on Betfair and appeared likely to continue in that direction. Then, suddenly, punters started to look at the serious numbers and realised there was only one possible outcome. Tonight Trump is on offer at 1.05 or 1/19 in old money, Cruz has withdrawn and it's game over.
In terms of betting on the Republican nominee, when the end game arrived, it was all settled very quickly. Less than two weeks ago Trump's odds had weakened from around 1/5 to touch even money on Betfair and appeared likely to continue in that direction. Then, suddenly, punters started to look at the serious numbers and realised there was only one possible outcome. Tonight Trump is on offer at 1.05 or 1/19 in old money, Cruz has withdrawn and it's game over.
It's been a very odd GOP race to bet on!
Some price movements were utterly predictable, some made no sense at all.
In terms of betting on the Republican nominee, when the end game arrived, it was all settled very quickly. Less than two weeks ago Trump's odds had weakened from around 1/5 to touch even money on Betfair and appeared likely to continue in that direction. Then, suddenly, punters started to look at the serious numbers and realised there was only one possible outcome. Tonight Trump is on offer at 1.05 or 1/19 in old money, Cruz has withdrawn and it's game over.
It's been a very odd GOP race to bet on!
Some price movements were utterly predictable, some made no sense at all.
Do you take a view on the POTUS odds?
Is Trump value @ 11/4?
Prompted, I think by Pulpstar just three or four days ago, I backed The Donald to become the next POTUS at odds of 6.4 (6.13 net) on Betfair, mainly on the basis that there just had to be a profitable trading opportunity on such a bet this side of the elections in November. Who could have imagined that the odds would almost halve over such a short time span?
A new Republican Party was born tonight. Where it will go, nobody yet knows.
It will be one hell of a ride!
The positive thing about it is that it isn't particularly religious.
Absolutely. Anything that gets religion out of US politics is a good thing.
Trump and Clinton must be two of the least religious presidential candidates for a long time, although I suppose Reagan wasn't all that religious either.
In terms of betting on the Republican nominee, when the end game arrived, it was all settled very quickly. Less than two weeks ago Trump's odds had weakened from around 1/5 to touch even money on Betfair and appeared likely to continue in that direction. Then, suddenly, punters started to look at the serious numbers and realised there was only one possible outcome. Tonight Trump is on offer at 1.05 or 1/19 in old money, Cruz has withdrawn and it's game over.
It's been a very odd GOP race to bet on!
Some price movements were utterly predictable, some made no sense at all.
Do you take a view on the POTUS odds?
Is Trump value @ 11/4?
Sorry, answering your question ..... is Trump value at 11/4? I certainly wouldn't be investing any more on him, at least until he chooses his Veep. If it's a woman and the right woman, then I think his odds could well shorten further, say to around 7/4, making 11/4 look like value. DYOR.
What I would like to hear, preferably from those who understand these things, is just why Hillary is doing so badly in relative terms, although still virtually certain to win her party's nomination. For at least the last two years she had been considered virtually a shoo-in for the Presidency, all the more so when her only Democratic opponent turned out frankly to be an old man holding such socialist views. Perhaps Mike could arrange an Atlantic link up for one of his upcoming TV shows with some informed opinion on this.
I've just laid Hillary on Betfair because I think her odds are going to move out. Losing Indiana was a disaster not in terms of delegates but in terms of campaign momentum. She's going to limp across the line
Comments
With 18% counted it's 0.4%
19% it's a dead heat
Sanders 50%
Clinton 50%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/in/Dem
"He's dug his own grave."
"His own arrogance contributed to where he is today."
GOP establishment unloads on Cruz
https://t.co/Zy4NSBMVzW
26% Sanders up by 0.8%
27% Sanders up by 1%
GOP
Trump 53.5%
Cruz 35.4%
Kasich 8.4%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/in/Rep
Dems
Sanders 50.1%
Clinton 49.9%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/in/Dem
I've been a bit sidetracked by personal stuff this month so have no recent personal impression, except that people in my non-political circles (work, poker) aren't talking about the election much at all. Ticket-splitting seems to me unlikely, as people who bother to vote will tend to be politically motivated - I don't get the impression that either candidate has a huge personal following. Presumably the Standard will endorse Zac tomorrow, but probably in mild terms. My best guess is that Sadiq will do it by 54-46 or something similar.
Trump 2016.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/in/Dem
Looks like Trump and Sanders have won tonight, goodnight
Tory racists and Islamophobes die in your rage!!
Lets hope the failure of this disgraceful campaign against Sadiq Khan means people will now investigate the blatant Islamophobia in the Tory party,
Trump will get his 1237 votes now.
It's absolutely irrelevant, but I do enjoy seeing her lose.
What's the German for schadenfreude?
Now that Trump is The Man, the party needs to start coalescing around him. This means more pressure on Sanders to withdraw so the Dems can do the same.
Wise for punters not to write the guy off. I've balanced my book in favour of POTUS trump for the time being.
At Trump HQ the seats are all taken, the VIPs are standing behind the lectern, and all we need now is Donald.
I wonder how conciliatory Trump will be this evening.
Not that anyone will notice - tonight belongs to Trump (and Cruz for going with dignity)
It's pretty much his standard stump speech.
How many PBers at that time thought Trump would be the GOP nominee? Raise your hands. If you say you did, you're lying!
Then, suddenly, punters started to look at the serious numbers and realised there was only one possible outcome.
Tonight Trump is on offer at 1.05 or 1/19 in old money, Cruz has withdrawn and it's game over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvRlJ_MzoII
It is scary to think that young people have been so completely indoctrinated that they consider this to be real.
Need I say more?
Some price movements were utterly predictable, some made no sense at all.
Do you take a view on the POTUS odds?
Is Trump value @ 11/4?
It will be one hell of a ride!
Who could have imagined that the odds would almost halve over such a short time span?
DYOR.
For at least the last two years she had been considered virtually a shoo-in for the Presidency, all the more so when her only Democratic opponent turned out frankly to be an old man holding such socialist views.
Perhaps Mike could arrange an Atlantic link up for one of his upcoming TV shows with some informed opinion on this.