To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
Both Elliot and Cummings are too cerebral and just don't have good people or communication skills.
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
What do Leave have in turns of a GOTV operation? It seems that turn-out will be key to this vote.
No idea.
Good answer, when campaigning it is vital to identify who is deliberately sidetracking you.
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
Both Elliot and Cummings are too cerebral and just don't have good people or communication skills.
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Although what you say may be correct I think you're being harsh. Some unfortunate people have been keen to front Leave, Vote Leave have been busy, successfully sidelining them and now have the reins. Its very difficult mobilising strong minded people, especially those who haven't previously been natural allies. A graph the other day showed a 20 point Remain Leave last year, recent polls had Leave in the lead, somebody, somewhere has done a decent job.
Criticising the Leave campaign is counter productive, it what Meeks and Nabavi want you to do.
I can handle Meeks and Nabavi. I've come close to busting my entire relationship with the former, and managed to get Nabavi to admit he'd secretly been Remain all along since last year.
Don't worry.
I will continue to say it how I see it. There's a hope I can knock some sense into Leave and, if nothing else, it might make Remain complacent too ;-)
It's also worth noting that what really matters is how floating voters take what he says. Remain types will nod sagely and say how wise he is, Leavers will be irked at the meddling of a foreign leader in a domestic vote. Floating voters will split, and the nature of that split will likely not be 50/50.
After reading the thread I'm trying to think who would be the ideal "face" for Leave, the person who might just swing a few undecided/ambivalents. I'm not really someone in touch with popular culture, what about Steven Fry? John Bishop? Adele?
Paul O'Grady. He was going to leave the UK if Dave won the GE.. Has he left yet?
He's stuck in the queue behind the Scots who left after SindyRef failed....
It will be interesting to see the effect Obama has.
Mr. Bolger, only a couple of days until St George's Day, which may explain it.
Yes sure, and her Majesty's birthday but it certainly exudes a LEAVE atmosphere
This interests me, the referendum is in the middle of the Euros, Remain's greatest fear must be a surge of National Patriotism. I don't know what the fixtures are but the face painted millions in pubs will be easily persuaded to Leave if we beat Germany the day before.
Its things like that, completely out of anybody's hands, that could easily swing it one way or the other.
If Leave are relying on England doing well in the Euros to win then I reckon they are getting desperate! (Smiley face)
Thanks for this Roger. If true, I'm astonished that Leave haven't appointed a central advertiser.
You've only just noticed LEAVE have difficulty agreeing things?
For months its been 'Will it be Norway, or Switzerland, or Canada?'
Now we know its Albania.....
You see, when Remainiacs like you try and go for the jugular
You don't think which model LEAVE favours is an appropriate topic for discussion?
Or that Gove's preferred model is Albania (among others)?
As several LEAVErs have pointed out, that was not the answer they were looking for, not that it will change their vote - but if its disappointed committed LEAVErs, what impact will it have on the undecided?
Philip Rucker of the "Washington Post" reports that an internal Trump memo assesses he will easily gain the 1237 delegates required for the GOP nomination. Indeed they talk of 1400.
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
Both Elliot and Cummings are too cerebral and just don't have good people or communication skills.
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Perhaps it's a money issue? Are they well enough financed?
The thought occured to me that perhaps they are struggling to persuade an agency of sufficient calibre to take them on. Despite what I said last week if the majority of an agency's clients are pan European-as is the case with most large agencies-perhaps they might be reluctant to be seen working for Brexit?
Oh Obama, Obama..he who gave our previous grateful PM the DVDs..tell us how we poor, simple, stupid British children should vote to please the orthodox Washington DC view of American interests.
We will listen. And we will obediently follow you!
As Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, has noted, Obama is, and has long been, popular in the UK. Polled by Pew Resarch in June 2015, 76 per cent of British voters trusted him "to do the right thing regarding world affairs" (and most probably judge the US to have a passing interest in our EU membership).
Leave would be unwise to do their usual abuse and ridicule routine on Obama
If Obama wishes to maintain that popularity, he'd be well advised to mind his own business.
If Putin wishes to maintain that popularity, he'd be well advised to mind his own business.
I think one of Remain's big problems is that so many of its supporters seem so angry. It does not help to call people who support Remain or might be thinking about it scared, timid, lacking in confidence, traitors and so on, it really doesn't. Neither does it help to attack everyone who comes out in support of Remain.
The stew Leave are getting into over Obama just strikes me as being completely counter-productive; just as it was counter-productive to have John Redwood responding to the Treasury forecast and talking about ERM.
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
I agree completely with the last para. Leave missed a real opportunity by sacrificing it to hold onto the anti-immigration voters. I could have been seriously tempted by the EFTA option you outlined.
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Who? Never heard of him!
He's your leader.
I know.......I was just checking your sense of humour.......running a bit low, evidently.....
Thanks for this Roger. If true, I'm astonished that Leave haven't appointed a central advertiser.
You've only just noticed LEAVE have difficulty agreeing things?
For months its been 'Will it be Norway, or Switzerland, or Canada?'
Now we know its Albania.....
You see, when Remainiacs like you try and go for the jugular
You don't think which model LEAVE favours is an appropriate topic for discussion?
Or that Gove's preferred model is Albania (among others)?
As several LEAVErs have pointed out, that was not the answer they were looking for, not that it will change their vote - but if its disappointed committed LEAVErs, what impact will it have on the undecided?
How is that 'going for the jugular'?
Gove's preferred model is British.
If you want to try and talk down an independent Britain as being just like Albania then good luck with that.
Excellent thread Roger - and I wholeheartedly agree with David Oglivy's sentiment.
If only politicians did sell policies like they were 'selling washing powder'!
It would be virtual radio silence......
Thank you. I wasn't sure that too many apart from you would know who David Ogilvy was. I was going to use "The consumer isn't a moron-she's your wife" but it sounded a bit sexist
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Who? Never heard of him!
He's your leader.
I know.......I was just checking your sense of humour.......running a bit low, evidently.....
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
Both Elliot and Cummings are too cerebral and just don't have good people or communication skills.
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Perhaps it's a money issue? Are they well enough financed?
The thought occured to me that perhaps they are struggling to persuade an agency of sufficient calibre to take them on. Despite what I said last week if the majority of an agency's clients are pan European-as is the case with most large agencies-perhaps they might be reluctant to be seen working for Brexit?
That's my view - it's Shy Leave Syndrome writ large.
No - its 'don't want to screw up my business' syndrome.
The majority of big agencies will have multinational European clients - virtually none of whom will be in favour of BREXIT - what ever their personal views it would be risky commercially to take on LEAVE
Thanks for this Roger. If true, I'm astonished that Leave haven't appointed a central advertiser.
You've only just noticed LEAVE have difficulty agreeing things?
For months its been 'Will it be Norway, or Switzerland, or Canada?'
Now we know its Albania.....
You see, when Remainiacs like you try and go for the jugular
You don't think which model LEAVE favours is an appropriate topic for discussion?
Or that Gove's preferred model is Albania (among others)?
As several LEAVErs have pointed out, that was not the answer they were looking for, not that it will change their vote - but if its disappointed committed LEAVErs, what impact will it have on the undecided?
How is that 'going for the jugular'?
Gove's preferred model is British.
If you want to try and talk down an independent Britain as being just like Albania then good luck with that.
I didn't introduce Albania into the conversation - Gove did.
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
I can't deny there's some truth in much of what you're saying.
Oh Obama, Obama..he who gave our previous grateful PM the DVDs..tell us how we poor, simple, stupid British children should vote to please the orthodox Washington DC view of American interests.
We will listen. And we will obediently follow you!
As Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, has noted, Obama is, and has long been, popular in the UK. Polled by Pew Resarch in June 2015, 76 per cent of British voters trusted him "to do the right thing regarding world affairs" (and most probably judge the US to have a passing interest in our EU membership).
Leave would be unwise to do their usual abuse and ridicule routine on Obama
If Obama wishes to maintain that popularity, he'd be well advised to mind his own business.
It affects the US and global trade, of course he's going to have an opinion and has every right to express it. It doesn't have to keep quiet just because some people don't like to hear his message. I am equally enthusiastic that Le Pen is coming to campaign for Leave!
Excellent thread Roger - and I wholeheartedly agree with David Oglivy's sentiment.
If only politicians did sell policies like they were 'selling washing powder'!
It would be virtual radio silence......
Thank you. I wasn't sure that too many apart from you would know who David Ogilvy was. I was going to use "The consumer isn't a moron-she's your wife" but it sounded a bit sexist
Another great Ogilvy saying:
What you say in advertising is more important than how you say it.
So while the different sides may get in a palaver over 'How much we send to the EU every month' or 'How much your household will be worse off by 2030' what matters is the fundamental message. So far Remain's is 'Vote Leave Get Poorer', while Leave's is 'Vote Leave Take Control'. I'm pretty sure which of those two will win.....
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
May I be a conniving bastard too. REMAIN seem to be having so much more fun?
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
I can't deny there's some truth in much of what you're saying.
Thanks.
We must also appreciate the importance of introducing the immigration issue into the debate as its all about perception. The talking heads of pb.com will pontificate about EFTA and EEA, but for every one of them there's a thousand people on a housing estate uncomfortable with immigration who may see the EU as the root cause.
You and I may disagree but its important to remember that this site is no way indicative of the electorate. Remainers on here say if Leave play the immigration card they'll lose, in other words please don't mention immigration. You'll have to get used to being called a racist but ho hum.
I want to be honest, I want an immigration policy that doesn't discriminate by country of origin, while we're in the EU that can't happen, its the Remainers that are racist (they're not of course, but you see my point)
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
Where have I said Leavers are homophobic, racists, fruitcakes ?
Thanks for this Roger. If true, I'm astonished that Leave haven't appointed a central advertiser.
You've only just noticed LEAVE have difficulty agreeing things?
For months its been 'Will it be Norway, or Switzerland, or Canada?'
Now we know its Albania.....
You see, when Remainiacs like you try and go for the jugular
You don't think which model LEAVE favours is an appropriate topic for discussion?
Or that Gove's preferred model is Albania (among others)?
As several LEAVErs have pointed out, that was not the answer they were looking for, not that it will change their vote - but if its disappointed committed LEAVErs, what impact will it have on the undecided?
How is that 'going for the jugular'?
Up till recently Leavers have had the luxury of being able to claim all sorts of benefits following Brexit without being held to account on the achievability. This was never going to withstand a referendum campaign, once Leave had to try and come to a common view on what Brexit will actually look like the problems started.
Even now I see Gove's model as an an aspiration that has little hope of surviving the negotiations. I expect he is clinging to saying there will be no freedom of movement to keep a big element of the Leave coalition on board. In the negotiations it will be the first thing to go. I cn hear the speech now "We tried folks but we had to let it go to ensure our future economic success".
Oh Obama, Obama..he who gave our previous grateful PM the DVDs..tell us how we poor, simple, stupid British children should vote to please the orthodox Washington DC view of American interests.
We will listen. And we will obediently follow you!
As Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, has noted, Obama is, and has long been, popular in the UK. Polled by Pew Resarch in June 2015, 76 per cent of British voters trusted him "to do the right thing regarding world affairs" (and most probably judge the US to have a passing interest in our EU membership).
Leave would be unwise to do their usual abuse and ridicule routine on Obama
If Obama wishes to maintain that popularity, he'd be well advised to mind his own business.
It affects the US and global trade, of course he's going to have an opinion and has every right to express it. It doesn't have to keep quiet just because some people don't like to hear his message. I am equally enthusiastic that Le Pen is coming to campaign for Leave!
Anyone has a right to express an opinion; that doesn't necessarily make it diplomatically wise to do so, or politically wise for that matter.
The British government might take the view that it would rather see one candidate in the forthcoming US election win than the other, for reasons of national interest, global stability and prosperity and so on. But that doesn't mean it should give an endorsement.
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
Where have I said Leavers are homophobic, racists, fruitcakes ?
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
Where have I said Leavers are homophobic, racists, fruitcakes ?
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
Where have I said Leavers are homophobic, racists, fruitcakes ?
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
Sketch of Cummings before the Treasury Select Committee:
No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy.
“You’re not wrong there,” Labour’s Rachel Reeves observed drily, before leaving to lie down in dark corner.
Your self assessment tax payment from the other month must have been better than expected!
Good news anyway although how much was achieved by shuffling spending from this tax year into next?
The UK national accounts are wonderfully opaque but the tendency in recent times is for the initial estimate of borrowing to be higher than it is ultimately found to be. I don't think that there is any doubt Osborne has been quite fond of knocking on borrowing in the past (hence the remarkable accuracy of his shorter term forecasts). Whether there is any compelling reason to do it this year (maybe given the various elections and referendum) is harder to say.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
If that were an option I could see Poland putting it to a vote as well since they aren't in the EMU and are deeply sceptical about the idea of ever closer union.
Tbh, this is what David Cameron's negotiation should have been based around, creating a two speed EU, one for those who wish to integrate and all that brings and one for those who don't which would bring countries like Norway and Switzerland closer but allow the UK, Sweden and Denmark to become a bit more detached, give the bloc a single veto between them and that would give enough of a say to them while diluting its power since it would be shared between many countries.
Instead we got some guff about an emergency brake on immigration that isn't going to ever be used, we got the red and yellow card system that no one even talks about, we got an opt-out of ever closer union that no EU state is obligated to recognise and we got a non-discrimination clause that the ECJ have previously ruled in favour of.
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
I know Mrs Atkinson very well, she was expelled from UKIP.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
Your self assessment tax payment from the other month must have been better than expected!
Good news anyway although how much was achieved by shuffling spending from this tax year into next?
Whether there is any compelling reason to do it this year (maybe given the various elections and referendum) is harder to say.
Good point. Public borrowing will be drowned in the referendum noise this year so probably no need for him to bother. The OBR forecast was £72.2bn so £74bn is not bad.
Receipts were also up 3.6% and government spending only 0.2% so they do seem to be keeping control of spending. Overall borrowing is still very high given the crash was 8 years ago - we'd better hope we don't hit a recession anytime soon.
Indeed, Mr. Max. As Blair threw away a golden economic opportunity, Cameron's thrown away an opportunity for a real renegotiation (as well as a good deal of his own standing).
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
I know Mrs Atkinson very well, she was expelled from UKIP.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
I dislike the religion of ISIS. I dislike their culture of pushing gays off rooftops, dynamiting non-Muslim cultural relics and beheading anyone who they feel like. This is, of course, a ridiculous prejudice on my part.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Tbh, this is what David Cameron's negotiation should have been based around, creating a two speed EU.
I think it was a mistake by the BOOers to push Cameron into making the EU referendum an In-Out affair rather than his original proposal which was a referendum on Accepting or Rejecting the Deal. A multiphase process would have produced a much greater likelihood of a proper two speed EU.
Your self assessment tax payment from the other month must have been better than expected!
Good news anyway although how much was achieved by shuffling spending from this tax year into next?
Whether there is any compelling reason to do it this year (maybe given the various elections and referendum) is harder to say.
Good point. Public borrowing will be drowned in the referendum noise this year so probably no need for him to bother. The OBR forecast was £72.2bn so £74bn is not bad.
Receipts were also up 3.6% and government spending only 0.2% so they do seem to be keeping control of spending. Overall borrowing is still very high given the crash was 8 years ago - we'd better hope we don't hit a recession anytime soon.
Treasury forecast was £74.5bn and the BBC (in a move clearly designed to give Another Richard a heart attack and thus weaken the Leave cause) are reporting it as the first time that Osborne has missed his forecast. Ultimately I think it is very unlikely he will because £500m is a very small revisal on such large numbers.
The progress on reducing the deficit has been slow and I agree that we are vulnerable should a recession appear.
Government spending increased 0.2% in the last year. That means overall only increased debt interest drove government spending up. It is something of an achievement to manage that after years of "austerity" where most of the low lying fruit has been plucked.
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
I know Mrs Atkinson very well, she was expelled from UKIP.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
I dislike the religion of ISIS. I dislike their culture of pushing gays off rooftops, dynamiting non-Muslim cultural relics and beheading anyone who they feel like. This is, of course, a ridiculous prejudice on my part.
Oh yes, me too. My point is I judge somebody by what they do not their colour or the book they hold onto. I'm told Le Pen holds anti semitic views, perhaps she has reason to, but its not one I share.
The point you raise is one that's puzzled me about liberalism, these savages stand for everything liberals don't yet the liberals seem wary of condemning them. Weird.
I'm pro execution, people on here have called me a far right nutter for being so, yet I would execute the far right nutter Brevik for slaughtering liberals. Funny old world.
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
I know Mrs Atkinson very well, she was expelled from UKIP.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
Dislike of someone based on colour is indeed ridiculous - as is dislike based on any other inherent attribute. Dislike according to religion or culture? That rather depends on what that religion or culture is and does, doesn't it? People have a choice over their actions and beliefs. The legitimacy of a personal dislike based on religion/culture/beliefs ought to take into account how much exposure someone's had to alternatives as well and how much genuine choice they have in the matter.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
If that were an option I could see Poland putting it to a vote as well since they aren't in the EMU and are deeply sceptical about the idea of ever closer union.
Tbh, this is what David Cameron's negotiation should have been based around, creating a two speed EU, one for those who wish to integrate and all that brings and one for those who don't which would bring countries like Norway and Switzerland closer but allow the UK, Sweden and Denmark to become a bit more detached, give the bloc a single veto between them and that would give enough of a say to them while diluting its power since it would be shared between many countries.
Instead we got some guff about an emergency brake on immigration that isn't going to ever be used, we got the red and yellow card system that no one even talks about, we got an opt-out of ever closer union that no EU state is obligated to recognise and we got a non-discrimination clause that the ECJ have previously ruled in favour of.
Well that would have been one option. Actually though it sounds a lot like the EU's own plans which feature a second tier including the UK and the outs plus bringing in the EEA countries and the Swiss and calling them 'associate members'.
Bear in mind those plans don't include any vetos for the 'associates' nor do they absolve them from the ECJ or ultimate participation in the euro and political union - just a slower approach to them.
You may be interested to learn Cameron has in fact been pushing this EU plan on some of the 'outs', including the Icelanders.
The £17.1bn reduction in the current budget deficit is quite some achievement, even adding £2-3bn back in for delayed March spending shows a decent reduction. The issue is that the government's definition of capital spending is becoming more and more Brownite as the years pass which has lowered the multiplier to nearly the same level as current expenditure and it is below 1x again as it was under Brown. We could probably shift around £10bn worth of "capital" expenditure to the current expenditure column, but it would make the chancellor look bad in that the current budget deficit would be coming down much slower.
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Not me. She can fuck off back to France.
Who invited her ffs?
A former UKIP MEP invited her I believe.
Another dog whistle
The French far right leader Marine Le Pen is to come to Britain in the next couple of weeks to campaign for Brexit.
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
I know Mrs Atkinson very well, she was expelled from UKIP.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
Dislike of someone based on colour is indeed ridiculous - as is dislike based on any other inherent attribute. Dislike according to religion or culture? That rather depends on what that religion or culture is and does, doesn't it? People have a choice over their actions and beliefs. The legitimacy of a personal dislike based on religion/culture/beliefs ought to take into account how much exposure someone's had to alternatives as well and how much genuine choice they have in the matter.
You make good points but I'm not convinced by the choice thing, I'm sure there are plenty of women and gays who wish they weren't muslim but apostasy is even worse.
I'm all for tolerance but these people open themselves up to ridicule.
I assume if someone has a retrial whilst serving their sentence and said person is found guilty, they are resentenced - but the time of the original sentence is taken into account ?
A YoY rise of £24.1bn in tax receipts, a 4% rise excluding the APF transfers. One wonders whether the GDP growth figures need revising given that inflation was bumping along at 0.1-0.3% for the year.
0.8% rise in benefits payments (including the state pension).
You make good points but I'm not convinced by the choice thing, I'm sure there are plenty of women and gays who wish they weren't muslim but apostasy is even worse.
I'm all for tolerance but these people open themselves up to ridicule.
So you do in fact dislike people because of their religion or culture and think they deserve ridicule. Fair dinkum. Your statement was a bit too bald and open for 'hang on a mo' criticism.
All human beings are biased one way or other to some extent or other. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It depends entirely on what you are biased against. The problem I have with the left is that they take an absolutist position on bias which then indeed opens them up to ridicule of the 'so you love ISIS do you?' type. Hating people for their religion or culture can be a good thing. Ask any anti-Nazi social justice warrior.
I assume if someone has a retrial whilst serving their sentence and said person is found guilty, they are resentenced - but the time of the original sentence is taken into account ?
The £17.1bn reduction in the current budget deficit is quite some achievement, even adding £2-3bn back in for delayed March spending shows a decent reduction. The issue is that the government's definition of capital spending is becoming more and more Brownite as the years pass which has lowered the multiplier to nearly the same level as current expenditure and it is below 1x again as it was under Brown. We could probably shift around £10bn worth of "capital" expenditure to the current expenditure column, but it would make the chancellor look bad in that the current budget deficit would be coming down much slower.
Not sure I understand that. The £74bn is the overall PSBR including both capital and current spending. In March there was a fairly exceptional £6bn of capital spending which drove borrowing up for the month and overall borrowing fractionally above target.
I do agree in general terms that far more of our deficit is a result of excess current spending than we like to admit and that this higher proportion of "structural" deficit is one of the reasons eliminating the deficit has proved harder than anticipated. My impression, however, is that the government has been seeking to increase the proportion of government spending on capital spending within the envelope of overall spending being broadly flat. Are you saying this has been largely a paper/classification exercise rather than a reality?
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
A YoY rise of £24.1bn in tax receipts, a 4% rise excluding the APF transfers. One wonders whether the GDP growth figures need revising given that inflation was bumping along at 0.1-0.3% for the year.
0.8% rise in benefits payments (including the state pension).
All the more remarkable when one considers the biggest change in taxes was the increase of the personal allowances which should have reduced the tax take. I agree our estimates of growth are once again too low.
The £17.1bn reduction in the current budget deficit is quite some achievement, even adding £2-3bn back in for delayed March spending shows a decent reduction. The issue is that the government's definition of capital spending is becoming more and more Brownite as the years pass which has lowered the multiplier to nearly the same level as current expenditure and it is below 1x again as it was under Brown. We could probably shift around £10bn worth of "capital" expenditure to the current expenditure column, but it would make the chancellor look bad in that the current budget deficit would be coming down much slower.
Not sure I understand that. The £74bn is the overall PSBR including both capital and current spending. In March there was a fairly exceptional £6bn of capital spending which drove borrowing up for the month and overall borrowing fractionally above target.
I do agree in general terms that far more of our deficit is a result of excess current spending than we like to admit and that this higher proportion of "structural" deficit is one of the reasons eliminating the deficit has proved harder than anticipated. My impression, however, is that the government has been seeking to increase the proportion of government spending on capital spending within the envelope of overall spending being broadly flat. Are you saying this has been largely a paper/classification exercise rather than a reality?
Yes. Though it isn't as bad as Brown yet, we are approaching it. Early on the capital spending multiplier hovered around 1.1-1.2x, currently it is at 0.8x while current expenditure sits at about 0.6x and always has. Brown's capital spending multiplier was high early on as well (under Tory spending plans) but it fell all the way to 0.7x by the end of his reign in Number 11, Darling reclassified a lot of the rubbish back to current expenditure in his short time which is why the "structural" part of the deficit was so bad when Osborne inherited it.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
I'm incredibly disappointed by Gove. I wanted Norway.
EFTA/EEA is off the table now, because the official policy of Vote Leave is for something else.
I'm still probably going to vote for Leave. But, I was fired up. Now it will be resignation, and disappointment in an opportunity lost.
I feel the same.
I also think that a concrete, actual example like Norway would have been a lot easier sell. What Leave wants now is unclear and probably unobtainable without a significant economic price. I think it will be impossible to sell it to a majority.
For my part, I don't assume the converse of what some rightists here seem to to believe. I take people as I find them. If someone is on the right, I don't automatically assume they are solely motivated by greed or malice to their alleged inferiors. They might also support the same cricket team as I do!
You make good points but I'm not convinced by the choice thing, I'm sure there are plenty of women and gays who wish they weren't muslim but apostasy is even worse.
I'm all for tolerance but these people open themselves up to ridicule.
So you do in fact dislike people because of their religion or culture and think they deserve ridicule. Fair dinkum. Your statement was a bit too bald and open for 'hang on a mo' criticism.
All human beings are biased one way or other to some extent or other. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It depends entirely on what you are biased against. The problem I have with the left is that they take an absolutist position on bias which then indeed opens them up to ridicule of the 'so you love ISIS do you?' type. Hating people for their religion or culture can be a good thing. Ask any anti-Nazi social justice warrior.
Actually I don't have hate in me, but that's semantics. I dislike people who rape and murder but I don't dislike all the people that are muslims. I'm an atheist but there's plenty of atheist murderers too. I had a discussion yesterday with an ex Cambridge, now University lecturer about prejudices and how we get them. I agree with you, everybody has them, a friend of mine says liberals are the biggest bigots, he loathes them, he has a point.
Anyone know where I could find a full transcript on-line of Gove's speech from earlier this week? I have found parts of it, but not the whole thing.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
I'm incredibly disappointed by Gove. I wanted Norway.
EFTA/EEA is off the table now, because the official policy of Vote Leave is for something else.
I'm still probably going to vote for Leave. But, I was fired up. Now it will be resignation, and disappointment in an opportunity lost.
I suppose the advantage of taking Gove's position is that, in the event of LEAVE. Govt. will be so busy with assorted renegotiations and the legislative consequences, that no-one will have time to mess about with the NHS or Education.
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
I'm incredibly disappointed by Gove. I wanted Norway.
EFTA/EEA is off the table now, because the official policy of Vote Leave is for something else.
I'm still probably going to vote for Leave. But, I was fired up. Now it will be resignation, and disappointment in an opportunity lost.
Yes, I'm pretty much in the same boat. I think Leave would still probably result in us being in the EEA, but this obsession with "controlling the border" isn't really selling me on Leave at the moment, at least not enough to go out and campaign for VL. I'm broadly in favour of immigration but I do agree that the current numbers are too high, I think there is a disconnect though, people expect that in the event of a Leave vote immigration from the EU will drop to zero or near zero overnight. I think within the EEA structure we could draw Sweden and Denmark, possibly Ireland as well and over time negotiate new immigration terms as a bloc shifting from free movement to enhanced movement whereby no state help is available until residency status is achieved, only those with confirmed jobs can come etc... small changes that would make a big difference. Outside of the EU or EEA I don't see how we can achieve those without giving up free trade, within that and doing it as the EEA bloc (we know the Swiss would be happy with our help as well) we could achieve real reform to the immigration system.
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Resignation is a terrible thing. Do you walk around slowly shaking your head?
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
Oh deary dear. We still have a completely unsustainable deficit and a chancellor who has run out of political capital to deal with it. Not good.
Which country has the largest sustainable deficit?
Probably the US or Japan. They can sustain their deficit indefinitely. So can we tbh, we can lop £375bn from our outstanding debt pile, does anyone believe for even a minute that the BoE will demand repayment of their Gilts? We already pay zero net interest on the debt (as do all the other nations who have monetised their debt).
I think we've missed a real opportunity here. We could have recreated EFTA as a free trade bloc that was outside the EU's political remit, with no CAP.
We'd have taken Sweden, and Denmark from inside the EU. We'd have brought Norway and co together from outside. It would have been the perfect destination for all who didn't buy into ever closer union, but liked the idea of a continent wide free trade block - including things like financial services, which we hugely benefit from.
But unfortunately, because the destination is 'completely out, way more out than Norway, or even Switzerland', then (a) it seems unlikely that the referendum will be won, (b) it is much more likely to be near-term disruptive, and therefore unappealing to encourage others to follow us, and (c) for Sweden, which is completely surrounded by EEA states, they aren't going to go to our status, even if they did leave the EU.
Let's wait and see. There are lots of options within the broad sweep of what Gove announced on Tuesday.
I'm incredibly disappointed by Gove. I wanted Norway.
EFTA/EEA is off the table now, because the official policy of Vote Leave is for something else.
I'm still probably going to vote for Leave. But, I was fired up. Now it will be resignation, and disappointment in an opportunity lost.
I suppose the advantage of taking Gove's position is that, in the event of LEAVE. Govt. will be so busy with assorted renegotiations and the legislative consequences, that no-one will have time to mess about with the NHS or Education.
Like in 1944, then?
When the PM is distracted by bigger matters, it's an ideal time for ministers to go their own way with pet projects.
Anyone know where I could find a full transcript on-line of Gove's speech from earlier this week? I have found parts of it, but not the whole thing.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Resignation is a terrible thing. Do you walk around slowly shaking your head?
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
Having run my own business for 40 years before I retired in 2009 I have never resigned from anything and yes as you know I am for remain with all the opportunities that being involved will present us with
Anyone know where I could find a full transcript on-line of Gove's speech from earlier this week? I have found parts of it, but not the whole thing.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
To add to the names Roger mentioned, there's also Curzon PR. The MD was on Sky the other day for Leave.
I like Leave's regional approach here. Much closer to the ground than a big name from London. Surprised PR Week haven't a more recent update than March.
I liked it too but I can't understand why they haven't appointed an agency as well. They really need someone to give them a direction and I don't think Dominic Cummings understands how complex that can be. He devised the car running out of control a while ago and I heard Gove use it yesterday. I think he's mistaking a few themes for a campaign
Both Elliot and Cummings are too cerebral and just don't have good people or communication skills.
Cummings interview by the select committee yesterday shows the issue very well, where he said he wasn't even going to bother commissioning an independent economic study, and Elliot still hasn't responded to a single email of mine - or that of many others.
They think the case against the EU really makes itself, and the country will mobilise to vote against it through a process of osmosis. Perhaps they think campaigning is just a bit dirty.
They need to realise this is a fight to the death, the stakes couldn't be higher and the Remain campaign so far has barely put a foot wrong, apart from Lord Rose, and Leave didn't even exploit that.
Although what you say may be correct I think you're being harsh. Some unfortunate people have been keen to front Leave, Vote Leave have been busy, successfully sidelining them and now have the reins. Its very difficult mobilising strong minded people, especially those who haven't previously been natural allies. A graph the other day showed a 20 point Remain Leave last year, recent polls had Leave in the lead, somebody, somewhere has done a decent job.
Criticising the Leave campaign is counter productive, it what Meeks and Nabavi want you to do.
Anyone know where I could find a full transcript on-line of Gove's speech from earlier this week? I have found parts of it, but not the whole thing.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
Anyone know where I could find a full transcript on-line of Gove's speech from earlier this week? I have found parts of it, but not the whole thing.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Resignation is a terrible thing. Do you walk around slowly shaking your head?
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
Having run my own business for 40 years before I retired in 2009 I have never resigned from anything and yes as you know I am for remain with all the opportunities that being involved will present us with
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Resignation is a terrible thing. Do you walk around slowly shaking your head?
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
Having run my own business for 40 years before I retired in 2009 I have never resigned from anything and yes as you know I am for remain with all the opportunities that being involved will present us with
And what opportunities are they?
Trading within a declining market, that's suffering rampant unemployment. Err.
Mr. 30, must confess I am not flabbergasted, though when I saw the headline (didn't click it) I assumed that was about shifting intelligence spending from one budget to another (namely Defence).
It's a shame the Government's better at sticking to its 0.7% foreign aid commitment than the 2% Defence spending it pretends to want.
It seems that in general most voters do not like the EU at all, and both on the media and in family discussions, a majority are very much attracted to the idea of divorce from the EU and to re-gain control of our Country. However, I think that a lot of us dream for an ideal world but that the reality is different and when the time comes to place the ‘X’ on that piece of paper the dream will awake and many will realise that is all it is, and they will vote for remain. There is simply too much independent evidence and opinions that leave would be a huge ‘leap in the dark’ and the economy will win notwithstanding the pressure by leave to highlight their one trump card on immigration. I am sure many will attack Obama today if he comes out strongly for remain but I suspect many more will silently take it on board and endorse remain. I could be wrong but there does seem to be a shift towards remain recently. I have just posted my ballot for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioners on the 5th May and, at the risk of infuriating leavers, our Government booklet will be arriving soon after on our doormats, together with Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Resignation is a terrible thing. Do you walk around slowly shaking your head?
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
Having run my own business for 40 years before I retired in 2009 I have never resigned from anything and yes as you know I am for remain with all the opportunities that being involved will present us with
And what opportunities are they?
Trading with a declining market, that's suffering rampant unemployment. Err.
And paying £billions a year to trade with that declining market
Comments
Don't worry.
I will continue to say it how I see it. There's a hope I can knock some sense into Leave and, if nothing else, it might make Remain complacent too ;-)
It's also worth noting that what really matters is how floating voters take what he says. Remain types will nod sagely and say how wise he is, Leavers will be irked at the meddling of a foreign leader in a domestic vote. Floating voters will split, and the nature of that split will likely not be 50/50.
He's stuck in the queue behind the Scots who left after SindyRef failed....
Or that Gove's preferred model is Albania (among others)?
As several LEAVErs have pointed out, that was not the answer they were looking for, not that it will change their vote - but if its disappointed committed LEAVErs, what impact will it have on the undecided?
How is that 'going for the jugular'?
Hugely unlikely.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/20/internal-campaign-memo-projects-trump-will-win-1400-delegates-at-gop-convention/
They are utterly shameless.
Maybe they should ask MarqueeMark to make a film.
Ooopps ....
The stew Leave are getting into over Obama just strikes me as being completely counter-productive; just as it was counter-productive to have John Redwood responding to the Treasury forecast and talking about ERM.
This is a thread about advertising/strategy. If you take Meeks, Nabavi, TSE (whom I've no doubt you can handle) they've spent months calling Leavers homophobic, racist, fruitcakes, loonies etc etc they then write thread headers saying if Leave play the man they've lost it. I'm a great believer in fighting fire with fire, perhaps I'm less discreet, but never fret about upsetting the opposition, if they're complaining you've hit the spot.
These people live their lives for scoring political points, if you as a Leaver have a pop at Leave they will grin like Cheshire cats behind their keyboards, job done. The Leave campaign has been disparate and shambolic at times, indisputable, but we are where we are and I know for a fact there's loads of people working their socks off.
We can all shake hands on 24th June, until then remember who we're fighting and why, these people are conniving bastards that need exposing.
I agree completely with the last para. Leave missed a real opportunity by sacrificing it to hold onto the anti-immigration voters. I could have been seriously tempted by the EFTA option you outlined.
1) Remain's campaign has not been anything like faultless. I actually did a full thread header about why I think it's a fundamentally bad campaign:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/11/missing-the-point-how-the-remain-campaign-is-failing/
2) My other half also is thinking of banning me from pb.
If you want to try and talk down an independent Britain as being just like Albania then good luck with that.
I agree lots of Leavers seem quite angry, but this isn't a one-way street.
The majority of big agencies will have multinational European clients - virtually none of whom will be in favour of BREXIT - what ever their personal views it would be risky commercially to take on LEAVE
How many of the Brexiteers moaning about "foreigners" sticking their oar in and condemning Obama, are welcoming Le Pen this week?
Oh deep joy ....
What you say in advertising is more important than how you say it.
So while the different sides may get in a palaver over 'How much we send to the EU every month' or 'How much your household will be worse off by 2030' what matters is the fundamental message. So far Remain's is 'Vote Leave Get Poorer', while Leave's is 'Vote Leave Take Control'. I'm pretty sure which of those two will win.....
We must also appreciate the importance of introducing the immigration issue into the debate as its all about perception. The talking heads of pb.com will pontificate about EFTA and EEA, but for every one of them there's a thousand people on a housing estate uncomfortable with immigration who may see the EU as the root cause.
You and I may disagree but its important to remember that this site is no way indicative of the electorate. Remainers on here say if Leave play the immigration card they'll lose, in other words please don't mention immigration. You'll have to get used to being called a racist but ho hum.
I want to be honest, I want an immigration policy that doesn't discriminate by country of origin, while we're in the EU that can't happen, its the Remainers that are racist (they're not of course, but you see my point)
Good news anyway although how much was achieved by shuffling spending from this tax year into next?
Even now I see Gove's model as an an aspiration that has little hope of surviving the negotiations. I expect he is clinging to saying there will be no freedom of movement to keep a big element of the Leave coalition on board. In the negotiations it will be the first thing to go. I cn hear the speech now "We tried folks but we had to let it go to ensure our future economic success".
The British government might take the view that it would rather see one candidate in the forthcoming US election win than the other, for reasons of national interest, global stability and prosperity and so on. But that doesn't mean it should give an endorsement.
LOL
Ms Le Pen, whose arrival is unlikely to delight mainstream Brexiteers, will appear alongside the former UKIP Euro MP, Janice Atkinson, who belongs to the same group as the French Front National in Strasbourg.
Ms Le Pen, like other French nationalist politicians, is a keen supporter of Brexit because she believe that it would start a chain reaction of decomposition of the European Union.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-marine-le-pen-french-front-national-uk-visit-a6992301.html
No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy.
“You’re not wrong there,” Labour’s Rachel Reeves observed drily, before leaving to lie down in dark corner.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps
Tbh, this is what David Cameron's negotiation should have been based around, creating a two speed EU, one for those who wish to integrate and all that brings and one for those who don't which would bring countries like Norway and Switzerland closer but allow the UK, Sweden and Denmark to become a bit more detached, give the bloc a single veto between them and that would give enough of a say to them while diluting its power since it would be shared between many countries.
Instead we got some guff about an emergency brake on immigration that isn't going to ever be used, we got the red and yellow card system that no one even talks about, we got an opt-out of ever closer union that no EU state is obligated to recognise and we got a non-discrimination clause that the ECJ have previously ruled in favour of.
I appreciate you're not interested in facts but that is the case. I know very little about le Pen but from what I gather she is anti semitic which I find abhorrent, in fact I find the dislike of anybody based on colour, culture or religion ridiculous.
Good point. Public borrowing will be drowned in the referendum noise this year so probably no need for him to bother. The OBR forecast was £72.2bn so £74bn is not bad.
Receipts were also up 3.6% and government spending only 0.2% so they do seem to be keeping control of spending. Overall borrowing is still very high given the crash was 8 years ago - we'd better hope we don't hit a recession anytime soon.
The progress on reducing the deficit has been slow and I agree that we are vulnerable should a recession appear.
Government spending increased 0.2% in the last year. That means overall only increased debt interest drove government spending up. It is something of an achievement to manage that after years of "austerity" where most of the low lying fruit has been plucked.
The point you raise is one that's puzzled me about liberalism, these savages stand for everything liberals don't yet the liberals seem wary of condemning them. Weird.
I'm pro execution, people on here have called me a far right nutter for being so, yet I would execute the far right nutter Brevik for slaughtering liberals. Funny old world.
Bear in mind those plans don't include any vetos for the 'associates' nor do they absolve them from the ECJ or ultimate participation in the euro and political union - just a slower approach to them.
You may be interested to learn Cameron has in fact been pushing this EU plan on some of the 'outs', including the Icelanders.
I'm all for tolerance but these people open themselves up to ridicule.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/ukip-mep-janice-atkinson-who-attacked-feckless-welfare-families-owes-2000-in-missed-child-support-9935761.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36099387
0.8% rise in benefits payments (including the state pension).
All human beings are biased one way or other to some extent or other. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It depends entirely on what you are biased against. The problem I have with the left is that they take an absolutist position on bias which then indeed opens them up to ridicule of the 'so you love ISIS do you?' type. Hating people for their religion or culture can be a good thing. Ask any anti-Nazi social justice warrior.
I do agree in general terms that far more of our deficit is a result of excess current spending than we like to admit and that this higher proportion of "structural" deficit is one of the reasons eliminating the deficit has proved harder than anticipated. My impression, however, is that the government has been seeking to increase the proportion of government spending on capital spending within the envelope of overall spending being broadly flat. Are you saying this has been largely a paper/classification exercise rather than a reality?
I'm incredibly disappointed by Gove. I wanted Norway.
EFTA/EEA is off the table now, because the official policy of Vote Leave is for something else.
I'm still probably going to vote for Leave. But, I was fired up. Now it will be resignation, and disappointment in an opportunity lost.
I also think that a concrete, actual example like Norway would have been a lot easier sell. What Leave wants now is unclear and probably unobtainable without a significant economic price. I think it will be impossible to sell it to a majority.
They might also support the same cricket team as I do!
All human beings are biased one way or other to some extent or other. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It depends entirely on what you are biased against. The problem I have with the left is that they take an absolutist position on bias which then indeed opens them up to ridicule of the 'so you love ISIS do you?' type. Hating people for their religion or culture can be a good thing. Ask any anti-Nazi social justice warrior.
Actually I don't have hate in me, but that's semantics. I dislike people who rape and murder but I don't dislike all the people that are muslims. I'm an atheist but there's plenty of atheist murderers too. I had a discussion yesterday with an ex Cambridge, now University lecturer about prejudices and how we get them. I agree with you, everybody has them, a friend of mine says liberals are the biggest bigots, he loathes them, he has a point.
And, if anyone has a spare minute, a link to Vote Leave's plan for after Brexit. If it is on their website, it is not immediately obvious - at any rate, it isn't obvious to me.
Thanks in advance.
Man up ffs life is about reaching out not accepting second best. You're a gambler on a betting site, life is not beige its vivacious and bold.
When the PM is distracted by bigger matters, it's an ideal time for ministers to go their own way with pet projects.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/voteleave/pages/271/attachments/original/1461057270/MGspeech194VERSION2.pdf
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
Note this is vaguer than Gove's speech.....
It's a shame the Government's better at sticking to its 0.7% foreign aid commitment than the 2% Defence spending it pretends to want.