@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "Well, here it is, I have decided to vote to remain on the 23rd June."
Taking your main reasons. Big_G_NorthWales said: "I do believe that the UK within the EU can have an impact on the organisation as it faces the many uncertainties the next few years will bring and that strong alliances can be forged to change the face of Europe."
A rational view if we had not heard this line from the Major govts from 1990 to 1997 and from the Blair /Brown govts of 1997 to 2010 and from the Cameron govts from 2010 to 2016. "in europe not run by it" etc etc
The evidence of history is overwhelming. On this promise of reform from the inside the politicians broken promises are strewn on the ground. Why conclude that if a strategy keeps failing to succeed you think "one more push" will overcome all the past failures?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel.."
Cameron's time at the top is also just a matter of months and not years. Count him out. He has neither the time, nor the inclination to reform the EU.
A thought I just had, that I don't think has been mentioned previously. I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?
It would go some way to explaining his vehemence in campaigning, and he would be seen positively by the EU Elite as being determined to advance the Project forward once free of the burden of office under the Conservatives.
He's still not yet 50 and I can't see him doing a Blair and taking money from the world's despots for speeches and 'advice', so what will he do with his 'retirement'?
"A Remain vote condemns us to ever diminishing influence in the world, economic and political stagnation and a continual erosion of democracy."
Can someone tell me how this is not a negative, defeatist attitude?
Who said I was not allowed to be negative? I have spent a huge amount of time on here making a positive case for Leave - indeed more so than most of the official campaigners.
But in the end of course one of the reasons I want us to Leave is because I believe the EU has been disastrous for the UK and that it will only get worse after a Remain vote. Why should I pretend otherwise?
Yep, I agree. I understand where you are coming from completely. It's just there seems to be a framing on here and elsewhere that Remain is negative and Leave is positive. In the end, though, both are both. A key tenet of the Leave case is that the UK cannot influence developments inside the EU and is bound to have its interests damaged by the other member states. A key tenet of the Remain case is that tis does not have to be so and that the UK can and should fight its corner, form alliances and get what it wants done. My belief is that we can engage positively with the EU and make so much more of the opportunities it offers while also being able to trade successfully with the rest of the world. I also worry that outside the EU we will not be as influential as the Leave side claim and that our voice will be far less important. I just don't see the likes of the US, China and India prioritising the negotiation of trade deals with us, for example. They will have much bugger fish to fry.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
The only real issue in the coming election is whether the SNP poll just above or just below 50%.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "Well, here it is, I have decided to vote to remain on the 23rd June."
Taking your main reasons. Big_G_NorthWales said: "I do believe that the UK within the EU can have an impact on the organisation as it faces the many uncertainties the next few years will bring and that strong alliances can be forged to change the face of Europe."
A rational view if we had not heard this line from the Major govts from 1990 to 1997 and from the Blair /Brown govts of 1997 to 2010 and from the Cameron govts from 2010 to 2016. "in europe not run by it" etc etc
The evidence of history is overwhelming. On this promise of reform from the inside the politicians broken promises are strewn on the ground. Why conclude that if a strategy keeps failing to succeed you think "one more push" will overcome all the past failures?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel.."
Cameron's time at the top is also just a matter of months and not years. Count him out. He has neither the time, nor the inclination to reform the EU.
A thought I just had, that I don't think has been mentioned previously. I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?
It would go some way to explaining his vehemence in campaigning, and he would be seen positively by the EU Elite as being determined to advance the Project forward once free of the burden of office under the Conservatives.
He's still not yet 50 and I can't see him doing a Blair and taking money from the world's despots for speeches and 'advice', so what will he do with his 'retirement'?
Chillax on a Panamanian beach, building sandcastles with his trusts?
I'd imagine he'll go down a similar route to Blair and Brown. Speeches for big wonga.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
I don't want them to do our bidding, nor do I want to do theirs. Why is this so difficult to understand?
The Scottish Independence result was a great result for the Tory Party, as well as the UK.
We wouldn't have won a majority without it. The SPECTRE of 59 SNP MPs was a great campaigning weapon for us, alongside Dave, and George's magnificent stewardship of the economy.
OMG Cameron fanboy opts for Remain and attempts to justify it.
Just man up and tell the truth ffs, that way you'll get more respect and less abuse
If you have read my comments you will see the turmoil in my decision. I recognise that some from leave would not be happy but I would draw your attention to my last sentence.
Turmoil? Will you be sobbing as you leave the polling station?
"David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel,"
He has already told you he's standing down. Your post reads like that of a 15 year old girl writing about Donny Osmond
Cut it out. You were pretty unpleasant to me last week. And now you're doing it to this poster. There's no need.
Hang on a minute, you blatantly accused me of misogyny a while back, completely unfounded, you can't have it both ways.
You write very well, that doesn't mean you can get away with unfair accusations.
I genuinely don't recall doing so. I've had some pretty vigorous arguments with you regarding the sexual assaults in German on NY's Eve. I think you may even have called some sort of feminist harpy, not that I care, frankly. But if you can point me to the post where I accused you of being a misogynist, completely unfounded, I would be happy to do what would be right and proper.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
I don't want them to do our bidding, nor do I want to do theirs. Why is this so difficult to understand?
They are going to give us great trade deals, aren't they? Ones we cannot hope to get as part of the EU.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
The polling moved from about 10% to about 2-3% during the campaign. The actual result was a 10.6% lead.
The question is why were the polls wrong (again)? Was there a very late swing not picked up by the polls or were the polls systemically wrong throughout (i.e. did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
My inclination would be towards the latter. It should be noted that the polls themselves covered quite a wide range at any given time but all trended much the same way. If there had been a late swing, you'd think, for example, that something would have shown up in postal votes cast up to two weeks before the nominal polling day. It didn't.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
The only real issue in the coming election is whether the SNP poll just above or just below 50%.
Nah, the real issue is will the Tories finish ahead of Labour.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
Or perhaps there's some truth to what Osborne is saying, except it's our politicians who are too weak and feeble, as opposed to British business and commercial interests?
The Scottish Independence result was a great result for the Tory Party, as well as the UK.
We wouldn't have won a majority without it. The SPECTRE of 59 SNP MPs was a great campaigning weapon for us, alongside Dave, and George's magnificent stewardship of the economy.
56 out of 59 MPs backing separation, and the SNP heading for a landslide win in May, is not a good result for the UK.
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
Maybe the fact that we are never going to adopt the euro and are therefore outside of the eurozone makes our issues and goals out of line with those of Slovakia and Slovenia etc? That could be why our FO folk appear so ineffective. There is a chart in the Treasury report that shows us alone in our own segment of interests. Hence why we will often end up as 1 v 19 or 1 v 27. Lethal in an era of QMV.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
Well indeed. Project Fear might have done the job *at the time* (though even that's debatable) but it's done nothing to settle the question for the long term.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
The only real issue in the coming election is whether the SNP poll just above or just below 50%.
Nah, the real issue is will the Tories finish ahead of Labour.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
The only real issue in the coming election is whether the SNP poll just above or just below 50%.
Nah, the real issue is will the Tories finish ahead of Labour.
I also worry that outside the EU we will not be as influential as the Leave side claim and that our voice will be far less important. I just don't see the likes of the US, China and India prioritising the negotiation of trade deals with us, for example. They will have much bigger fish to fry.
This is an interesting one and one that I have given much thought to. It probably won't surprise you to hear that I think you are incorrect but I do have reasons for this position.
Trade deals are all about give and take, compromise and getting the best deal possible for both sides at the least cost. Between two countries this is a fairly straightforward if long winded process. Both sides (should) come to the table with a clear idea of what they want from the talks and will probably also have a fairly clear idea of what the other side wants as well even before the talks start. So a deal between, say, India and Brazil (and I have no idea if one exists) should be a relatively straightforward process of wrangling, give and take and compromise. This is also the sort of negotiation I would expect between the UK and another country. It may take time but it is limited in its complexity.
The trouble is that when one side is a single country and the other is a collection of 28 countries all with different priorities, red lines and areas open for discussion. Even with QMV that still means that there are 28 different governments trying to make sure that the trade delegation is pushing their particular priorities rather than those of a different member state. There have to be a huge number of compromises within the EU before they even get to the point of starting the discussions with the other side of the proposed deal.
This shows pretty clearly in the way in which EFTA have been able to secure trade deals with other countries well before the EU. When you are only dealing with the needs of 4 countries it makes the whole process a hell of a lot easier than dealing with the needs of 28.
So I do not see EU membership as a benefit in terms of trade deals. If countries want to trade with the UK they will make deals. In the end there will be a lot less compromise needed than we are having to have with being part of the EU.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
Or perhaps there's some truth to what Osborne is saying, except it's our politicians who are too weak and feeble, as opposed to British business and commercial interests?
So why remove the benefits of the single market for those businesses? The rest of the world is still there to conquer. We are already the biggest inward investor into the US. So let's do what the Germans and other EU member states are doing in Asia. We are miles behind them there and it has nothing to do with EU membership.
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
The only real issue in the coming election is whether the SNP poll just above or just below 50%.
Nah, the real issue is will the Tories finish ahead of Labour.
(SLAB v SCON) That's two bald men fighting over a comb.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
The polling was reasonably consistent from subsample examination for the SNP from IndyRef to GE2015. Given the correlation of Yes/SNP one can only conclude that "Yes" improved it's position in the campaign.
Mr. NorthWales, sadly, I think the EU's on a one-track towards more integration. It might go faster or slower but the direction of travel is constant.
The single market is incomplete, the CAP is unreformed, and QMV and lack of veto power means we're more subject to the will of other countries (particularly those of the eurozone) than ever before.
My argument is that this is far from certain. There is a Europe wide movement against the eurocrats and lack of accountability and over the next two or three years events may well overtake europe and that as a member we can and should have an influence on the many changes that will be forthcoming
Politicians in the UK have been saying that for 30 years. It is as fanciful now as it was in the past - more so indeed once we remove the threat of leaving.
The latest opinion poll in the Netherlands has PVV (Wilders) getting 38 seats and being the largest party. Of course they'll be outvoted by a coalition, but it is a large increase over 15.
@DavidL. I just wanted to thank you for commenting on my website re. my Vote Leave declaration. You are my first either blog comment! www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave for those who are interested.
@Big_G_NorthWales, thank you for your summary of views. I can well understand your turmoil. I also struggled with the decision (albeit jumped the other way) because I am naturally conservative and believe in dialogue and co-operation between countries. Yet I have come to the conclusion that we cannot confuse the macro and micro pictures. In micro terms the UK does, periodically, gain vetoes and opt-outs from the EU. Yet on a macro level the direction of travel is towards 'ever closer union'. I am not convinced the people's of Europe actually share this integration EUview held by many EU elites, but at the moment the elites EUview dominates. Ultimately, I feel that the UK leaving will better ensure we can gain the more flexible relationship with the EU Brits tend to want. It is not a gimme, but by leaving we free ourselves from large swathes of the political side of the Union, whilst through membership of a free trade deal, keep elements of the economic side of co-operation.
In terms of immigration, my personal decision to vote leave has very little to do with migration levels. I believe immigration is of net benefit to the UK, it has enriched us culturally and boosted economic prosperity. There are challenges associated with the scale of net migration in to the UK; I personally think the level at this particular time and in this particular context is too high, placing a high burden on public infrastructure and heightening public concern to levels that, if not addressed by our political leaders, will be a barrier to the development of a more sustainable immigration system going forwards. What I am more sure about however is that within the EU very little will change on net migration levels without us being overly restrictive on non-EU migration. If we leave the EU there is a chance we will opt-in to free movement of people so we will be back to square one here. But there is also a chance we have a different immigration policy that reduces net-EU migration. If you are concerned about migration levels then, I don't see how leaving the EU is much of a risk. At worse you have the same policy as before, and at best, you have a more bespoke system to the UK's needs.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
Britain’s prosperity depends on the gains from specialisation that international trade allows. EU member states are its main trading partners. Mr Osborne reasonably points out that the greater Britain’s access to that single market, the greater the price to be paid. Brexit, like every other economic question, is no free lunch. Its advocates need to tell voters how much they will need to pay.
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
But not being confident to win on those arguments alone (perhaps they feel it's too technocratic) they are relying on fear of risk of change to win their vote.
It is not a healthy way to settle the question, nor will it.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Why not get a portable DVD Drive and plug it in by a USB?
Although Gove put in a confident performance - he is one of the very best debaters in UK politics - some of his answers, particularly on economics, left quite a lot to be desired. For example, he had no plausible answer to the points Nick Robinson was making about non-tariff barriers and what French and German ministers are saying about trade. His response to the question about all major economic organisations saying the UK would be poorer if it left the EU was also fairly weak.
It would have been a better point if more than 20 years of trying from the inside had actually managed to create a free and open market in services within the EU. We have had some successes, notably the single passport on financial services, but boy, it has been hard work.
Services are what this country is really good at and the lack of enthusiasm for a single market in them is a major source of our deficit with the EU. It can of course be argued that the extension of the single market in services would be even less likely without the UK being at the table but I think we need to be realistic about what we have achieved to date.
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
Leavers who back the EEA option think it's worth surrendering social, employment, regulatory, and migration policies, though. (And enviromental policy as well).
Sandpit - "I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?" - very close to wondering if he has been promised a top job - could the Conservative party survive David Cameron appearing in an EU job after a vote to remain?
....Our lazy journalists and duplicitous politicians like to pretend it's something more than this, but that's just not true. The US is very robust in pursuing its own interests, and doesn't care who gets in the way.' We were like that once, too. But I think the term 'British interests' is no longer understood in Whitehall.
We can see in the defeatist attitudes of our establishment, how they achieved so little from the EU renegotiations and are now are so fearful what the "powerful" EU countries will do to us if we leave. We need a Leader that believes in the country. Someone similar to Margaret Thatcher. Andrea Leadsom?
I am appalled at the low opinion our leaders have of the UK, its potential and its people. It is quite an eye opener.
Still, this referendum is revealing people for who they really are. The truth is often extremely bitter, but truth it is, nevertheless.
Indeed. The chances of me returning to the Tory party have receded into the distance now. I am rapidly becoming one of the 'anyone but' crowd.
You'd think that were it not for the EU, the UK would be a failed State, if you listened to Osborne and co.
They're doing a great job at talking the UK down, hence JackW's anecdote yesterday.
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
The Leave side seem to think we are too weak and feeble to get the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia to agree with us. Given that, how they think we are suddenly going to get the likes of the US and China to do our bidding is beyond me.
Or perhaps there's some truth to what Osborne is saying, except it's our politicians who are too weak and feeble, as opposed to British business and commercial interests?
So why remove the benefits of the single market for those businesses? The rest of the world is still there to conquer. We are already the biggest inward investor into the US. So let's do what the Germans and other EU member states are doing in Asia. We are miles behind them there and it has nothing to do with EU membership.
We have a larger percentage of our exports go to the rest of the world than any other EU country. We do this in spite of EU membership not because of it.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
We'll find out on the 24th.....
Depends on whether you mean the phone or online polls!
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
On topic, Goldsmith is running a deeply uninspiring campaign, which is odd, because I've been told he's a very impressive constituency MP, as his yuuuge majority shows.
Big_G_NorthWales said: "Well, here it is, I have decided to vote to remain on the 23rd June."
Taking your main reasons. Big_G_NorthWales said: "I do believe that the UK within the EU can have an impact on the organisation as it faces the many uncertainties the next few years will bring and that strong alliances can be forged to change the face of Europe."
A rational view if we had not heard this line from the Major govts from 1990 to 1997 and from the Blair /Brown govts of 1997 to 2010 and from the Cameron govts from 2010 to 2016. "in europe not run by it" etc etc
The evidence of history is overwhelming. On this promise of reform from the inside the politicians broken promises are strewn on the ground. Why conclude that if a strategy keeps failing to succeed you think "one more push" will overcome all the past failures?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel.."
Cameron's time at the top is also just a matter of months and not years. Count him out. He has neither the time, nor the inclination to reform the EU.
I think the EU is facing serious change and that there is a desire within many Countries for less Europe and more democracy. I do not believe David Cameron will only last months. There is no obvious successor and the party will need time to unify and then hopefully a eurosceptic will return to fight for democratic change within the EU
I respect, if deeply regret, your decision Big G but how many times have we heard about fighting for Britain's interests from the front, and fighting for democratic change inside the EU over the last 40 years?
If you do vote Remain, please be under no illusions. Also take a look at the new deal plan on Vote Leave's website- you might be pleasantly surprised.
I implore you; please don't make a decision you might regret.
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
Leavers who back the EEA option think it's worth surrendering social, employment, regulatory, and migration policies, though. (And enviromental policy as well).
EEA members do not have to sign up to the Social Chapter. Much of our employment law would also not be covered. Basically we would be left with prohibitions against discrimination against EU citizens looking to work here.
@DavidL. I just wanted to thank you for commenting on my website re. my Vote Leave declaration. You are my first either blog comment! www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave for those who are interested.
@Big_G_NorthWales, thank you for your summary of views. I can well understand your turmoil. I also struggled with the decision (albeit jumped the other way) because I am naturally conservative and believe in dialogue and co-operation between countries. Yet I have come to the conclusion that we cannot confuse the macro and micro pictures. In micro terms the UK does, periodically, gain vetoes and opt-outs from the EU. Yet on a macro level the direction of travel is towards 'ever closer union'. I am not convinced the people's of Europe actually share this integration EUview held by many EU elites, but at the moment the elites EUview dominates. Ultimately, I feel that the UK leaving will better ensure we can gain the more flexible relationship with the EU Brits tend to want. It is not a gimme, but by leaving we free ourselves from large swathes of the political side of the Union, whilst through membership of a free trade deal, keep elements of the economic side of co-operation.
In terms of immigration, my personal decision to vote leave has very little to do with migration levels. I believe immigration is of net benefit to the UK, it has enriched us culturally and boosted economic prosperity. There are challenges associated with the scale of net migration in to the UK; I personally think the level at this particular time and in this particular context is too high, placing a high burden on public infrastructure and heightening public concern to levels that, if not addressed by our political leaders, will be a barrier to the development of a more sustainable immigration system going forwards. What I am more sure about however is that within the EU very little will change on net migration levels without us being overly restrictive on non-EU migration. If we leave the EU there is a chance we will opt-in to free movement of people so we will be back to square one here. But there is also a chance we have a different immigration policy that reduces net-EU migration. If you are concerned about migration levels then, I don't see how leaving the EU is much of a risk. At worse you have the same policy as before, and at best, you have a more bespoke system to the UK's needs.
Well said.
Outside the EU we have options. Inside the EU we are reluctant passengers hoping for the best.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
We'll find out on the 24th.....
Depends on whether you mean the phone or online polls!
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
Is what I'm doing one of Sunday pieces on. This gives a flavour.
Sandpit - "I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?" - very close to wondering if he has been promised a top job - could the Conservative party survive David Cameron appearing in an EU job after a vote to remain?
Think Cameron cares what happens to the tory party after he delivers the UK into the arms of his masters in the EU?
That is one of the lessons of this referendum for me. And a very bitter one it is too.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Can you upgrade your RAM? That can provide a speedboost - also W10 is MUCH better than W8 - for once, simpler & faster
I guess the 3 million immigrants from the EU is a prediction based on the benefit freeze for the new arrivals - perhaps more then if the freeze is struck down by the EU courts.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
You shouldn't need to spend more than £500 and if you really are only looking to play DVDs you could go as low as £300-£400 although at that price screen quality may not be great and build quality will be a bit plasticky.
WIndows Media Player has been removed in Windows 10 but it is still easy enough to download other DVD player software.
Or as suggested, upgrade your current laptop to 10, and then reset and re-install Windows and that may speed it up enough.
My W7 laptop is having a fan crisis and if I can't fix it - its done. Took me days to get W8 to run. I'm so irked. W7 is great, worked better with my smart TV and I'm just worried about buying an op system free laptop now.
5yrs ago, I'd have no qualms. I've w7 discs but suspect all the drivers won't work.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
@DavidL. I just wanted to thank you for commenting on my website re. my Vote Leave declaration. You are my first either blog comment! www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave for those who are interested.
@Big_G_NorthWales, thank you for your summary of views. I can well understand your turmoil. I also struggled with the decision (albeit jumped the other way) because I am naturally conservative and believe in dialogue and co-operation between countries. Yet I have come to the conclusion that we cannot confuse the macro and micro pictures. In micro terms the UK does, periodically, gain vetoes and opt-outs from the EU. Yet on a macro level the direction of travel is towards 'ever closer union'. I am not convinced the people's of Europe actually share this integration EUview held by many EU elites, but at the moment the elites EUview dominates. Ultimately, I feel that the UK leaving will better ensure we can gain the more flexible relationship with the EU Brits tend to want. It is not a gimme, but by leaving we free ourselves from large swathes of the political side of the Union, whilst through membership of a free trade deal, keep elements of the economic side of co-operation.
In terms of immigration, my personal decision to vote leave has very little to do with migration levels. I believe immigration is of net benefit to the UK, it has enriched us culturally and boosted economic prosperity. There are challenges associated with the scale of net migration in to the UK; I personally think the level at this particular time and in this particular context is too high, placing a high burden on public infrastructure and heightening public concern to levels that, if not addressed by our political leaders, will be a barrier to the development of a more sustainable immigration system going forwards. What I am more sure about however is that within the EU very little will change on net migration levels without us being overly restrictive on non-EU migration. If we leave the EU there is a chance we will opt-in to free movement of people so we will be back to square one here. But there is also a chance we have a different immigration policy that reduces net-EU migration. If you are concerned about migration levels then, I don't see how leaving the EU is much of a risk. At worse you have the same policy as before, and at best, you have a more bespoke system to the UK's needs.
I guess the 3 million immigrants from the EU is a prediction based on the benefit freeze for the new arrivals - perhaps more then if the freeze is struck down by the EU courts.
No it's not. They have just taken the ONS predictions from last year and used them.
" the analysis does not model the impact on migration of the recent renegotiation, in line with the approach taken by the OBR at Budget 2016."
My W7 laptop is having a fan crisis and if I can't fix it - its done. Took me days to get W8 to run. I'm so irked. W7 is great, worked better with my smart TV and I'm just worried about buying an op system free laptop now.
5yrs ago, I'd have no qualms. I've w7 discs but suspect all the drivers won't work.
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
Try upgrading to W10 - it is alot better than W8.
Unless you really need WMP, there are plenty of alternatives
Big_G_NorthWales said: "Well, here it is, I have decided to vote to remain on the 23rd June."
Taking your main reasons. Big_G_NorthWales said: "I do believe that the UK within the EU can have an impact on the organisation as it faces the many uncertainties the next few years will bring and that strong alliances can be forged to change the face of Europe."
A rational view if we had not heard this line from the Major govts from 1990 to 1997 and from the Blair /Brown govts of 1997 to 2010 and from the Cameron govts from 2010 to 2016. "in europe not run by it" etc etc
The evidence of history is overwhelming. On this promise of reform from the inside the politicians broken promises are strewn on the ground. Why conclude that if a strategy keeps failing to succeed you think "one more push" will overcome all the past failures?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel.."
Cameron's time at the top is also just a matter of months and not years. Count him out. He has neither the time, nor the inclination to reform the EU.
I think the EU is facing serious change and that there is a desire within many Countries for less Europe and more democracy. I do not believe David Cameron will only last months. There is no obvious successor and the party will need time to unify and then hopefully a eurosceptic will return to fight for democratic change within the EU
I respect, if deeply regret, your decision Big G but how many times have we heard about fighting for Britain's interests from the front, and fighting for democratic change inside the EU over the last 40 years?
If you do vote Remain, please be under no illusions. Also take a look at the new deal plan on Vote Leave's website- you might be pleasantly surprised.
I implore you; please don't make a decision you might regret.
Thank you for your comments but I have made up my mind to vote remain. I am under no illusions and will accept the verdict on the 23rd June and move on
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
Leavers who back the EEA option think it's worth surrendering social, employment, regulatory, and migration policies, though. (And enviromental policy as well).
Most regulatory policy is decided at a tier above the EU. A tier where currently we have ceded our voice to the EU and which we would get back if we left and joined EFTA.
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
Leavers who back the EEA option think it's worth surrendering social, employment, regulatory, and migration policies, though. (And enviromental policy as well).
First, that's not true only a fraction of regulations and social clauses, plus an emergeny break on migration is allowed. Crucially, the ECJ no longer applies, and we can strike our own trade deals and save a lot of money.
Vote Leave have set out their plans for a new deal.
Have you read it yet?
You used to be interested in genuinely understanding the alternatives but it seems now you just want to critique them.
Sandpit - "I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?" - very close to wondering if he has been promised a top job - could the Conservative party survive David Cameron appearing in an EU job after a vote to remain?
Possibly, but if did split, they'd hear hear the noise on the ISS.
Equally interesting is the long term survivability of UKIP. They're proving to be extraordinarily inept for a party that's had so long to prepare for a referendum. One wonders what the point of them is, other than a job creation scheme for a gang of deadbeats.
On topic, Goldsmith is running a deeply uninspiring campaign, which is odd, because I've been told he's a very impressive constituency MP, as his yuuuge majority shows.
It just shows what a genius Boris Johnson was to win London against the odds, a conservative you are quite happy to slam at every opportunity.
EEA members do not have to sign up to the Social Chapter. Much of our employment law would also not be covered. Basically we would be left with prohibitions against discrimination against EU citizens looking to work here.
If the UK stays in the EEA, the experience of Norway indicates that the UK will probably have to accept – without having any say – much of EU employment and social policy, including directives that cover: working time; acquired rights; part-time workers; collective redundancies; parental leave; and equal treatment. “Many employers would regard this as a high price to pay,” says Professor Barnard.
Hogan Lovells partner Elizabeth Slattery points out that this status could result in the UK still being bound by the Working Time Directive (WTD), with the added chance that the EU may remove the UK’s working time opt-out, “which many businesses would see as the worst of all worlds”. The opt-out allows workers who are 18 or over to choose to opt out of the 48-hour limit imposed by the Directive.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
We'll find out on the 24th.....
Depends on whether you mean the phone or online polls!
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
I too suspect the phone polls may be more accurate - but am at a loss as to why, as the traditional rationale -'oldies not online, youngsters not on landline' should be producing the opposite results to what we are seeing - phone 'favouring' remain, while online 'favouring' leave.....
Tech help required, I'm trying to buy a laptop but the choice seems incredibly small if I want one that allows me to play dvds or will let me use Windows media player.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
If you're on W8 then you'll probably benefit from trying the W10 upgrade before buying a new PC. If you don't like it you can always switch back within 30 days.
Be aware of the need to set up the privacy settings when upgrading, otherwise your PC is calling MS all day every day. twitter.com/DXBITGuy/status/658990057747951616 Check out that cool guy's Twitter account for more tips and tricks
Also go to the Task Manager and see the Startup tab - this lists all the programs that start with the PC - disable everything you don't want to run automatically when the PC starts, mostly these things run in the background taking up processor and memory.
If all fails - get a Mac. It's no worse than moving from one Windows PC to another, and for basic tasks they really do just work and don't slow down with age.
Let me know how you get on, PM me if you prefer, rather than spamming here with specific questions.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
We'll find out on the 24th.....
Depends on whether you mean the phone or online polls!
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
I too suspect the phone polls may be more accurate - but am at a loss as to why, as the traditional rationale -'oldies not online, youngsters not on landline' should be producing the opposite results to what we are seeing - phone 'favouring' remain, while online 'favouring' leave.....
The private polling for the Tory party done by Crosby/Textor polling used hybrid polling, a mixture of online and phone polling.
I wonder if we'll head the same way with published polling.
EEA members do not have to sign up to the Social Chapter. Much of our employment law would also not be covered. Basically we would be left with prohibitions against discrimination against EU citizens looking to work here.
If the UK stays in the EEA, the experience of Norway indicates that the UK will probably have to accept – without having any say – much of EU employment and social policy, including directives that cover: working time; acquired rights; part-time workers; collective redundancies; parental leave; and equal treatment. “Many employers would regard this as a high price to pay,” says Professor Barnard.
Hogan Lovells partner Elizabeth Slattery points out that this status could result in the UK still being bound by the Working Time Directive (WTD), with the added chance that the EU may remove the UK’s working time opt-out, “which many businesses would see as the worst of all worlds”. The opt-out allows workers who are 18 or over to choose to opt out of the 48-hour limit imposed by the Directive.
Culture Secretary John Whittingdale today admitted accepting free hospitality from a London lapdancing club while chairing an inquiry into its licensing regime.
Mr Whittingdale and two other MPs were treated to dinner with managers and two female performers.
The Cabinet minister insisted it was an official visit as part of an inquiry by the Culture, Media and Sport select committee into new laws cracking down on such establishments.
However, the evening was not recorded in the committee’s published records. Nor was the visit mentioned in the committee’s report, which came out against the proposed tougher laws, which aimed to curb the spread of lapdancing clubs by classing them as “sex encounter” venues.
Thank you - interesting article - though I found this comment:
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
I wonder if the polls are again overstating those in favour of change?
We'll find out on the 24th.....
Depends on whether you mean the phone or online polls!
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
I too suspect the phone polls may be more accurate - but am at a loss as to why, as the traditional rationale -'oldies not online, youngsters not on landline' should be producing the opposite results to what we are seeing - phone 'favouring' remain, while online 'favouring' leave.....
If the weightings are done correctly, that shouldn't matter too much - though I'm always sceptical of polls that need substantial uplifts / downgrades for particular groups.
I wonder whether it's that online polls tend to be activist-heavy. It's not so much that they have the wrong weightings as that the element of self-selection can't be entirely eliminated and that Leavers are more pumped up politically in general and more likely to join polling panels than Remainers?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "Well, here it is, I have decided to vote to remain on the 23rd June."
Taking your main reasons. Big_G_NorthWales said: "I do believe that the UK within the EU can have an impact on the organisation as it faces the many uncertainties the next few years will bring and that strong alliances can be forged to change the face of Europe."
A rational view if we had not heard this line from the Major govts from 1990 to 1997 and from the Blair /Brown govts of 1997 to 2010 and from the Cameron govts from 2010 to 2016. "in europe not run by it" etc etc
The evidence of history is overwhelming. On this promise of reform from the inside the politicians broken promises are strewn on the ground. Why conclude that if a strategy keeps failing to succeed you think "one more push" will overcome all the past failures?
Big_G_NorthWales said: "David Cameron is widely respected in Europe and he would return to the EU as the inevitable successor to the disaster that is Angela Merkel.."
Cameron's time at the top is also just a matter of months and not years. Count him out. He has neither the time, nor the inclination to reform the EU.
I think the EU is facing serious change and that there is a desire within many Countries for less Europe and more democracy. I do not believe David Cameron will only last months. There is no obvious successor and the party will need time to unify and then hopefully a eurosceptic will return to fight for democratic change within the EU
So when do you see Cameron actually exiting TCP assuming, for the sake of argument, that REMAIN wins the referendum?
If it is a big win he will stay around for a year or two to sort out party differences and leave own his own terms.
If it is a close win he will be gone very quickly. The bad feeling in the party and in the country will make his position untenable.
I'm inclined to agree. From a betting perspective, the 6/1 odds for his departure in 2017 on offer from both Hills and SkyBet appears to offer far better value than the 2/1 both firms are offering against him leaving this year. That said, just two months ago I was able to back both years at double digit odds - his stock has declined considerably since then, that's for sure.
On topic, Goldsmith is running a deeply uninspiring campaign, which is odd, because I've been told he's a very impressive constituency MP, as his yuuuge majority shows.
It just shows what a genius Boris Johnson was to win London against the odds, a conservative you are quite happy to slam at every opportunity.
Boris has been a very good mayor. It doesn't mean he'd be a very good party leader, never mind PM.
Culture Secretary John Whittingdale today admitted accepting free hospitality from a London lapdancing club while chairing an inquiry into its licensing regime.
Mr Whittingdale and two other MPs were treated to dinner with managers and two female performers.
The Cabinet minister insisted it was an official visit as part of an inquiry by the Culture, Media and Sport select committee into new laws cracking down on such establishments.
However, the evening was not recorded in the committee’s published records. Nor was the visit mentioned in the committee’s report, which came out against the proposed tougher laws, which aimed to curb the spread of lapdancing clubs by classing them as “sex encounter” venues.
Mr. Eagles, I'm not a frequenter of lapdancing clubs, but was under the distinct impression that 'sex encounter' would be completely inaccurate as a classification for the establishments.
Key matches (Cup finals) involving Spurs, other London teams and midlands teams over the last 30 years:
1987: Coventry City 3 - Spurs 2 (FA Cup) L Thanks Mabbutt 1991: Spurs 2 - Forest 1 (FA Cup) W 1999: Leicester 0 - Spurs 1 (League cup) W 2008: Chelsea 1 - Spurs 2 (League cup) W 2015: Chelsea 2 - Spurs 0 (League cup) L
I was at 3 of those. The 2008 was one of the best sporting days of my life. The 1987 was predictable, took the lead after a couple of minutes and in true Spurs style assumed victory would follow. Glenda's last game for Spurs I believe.
I've just received a UKIP leaflet in the post, for the forthcoming Sheffield by-election.
The candidate, Steve Winstone, says "I am Sheffield man Of mixed race, my family of Anglo-Indian origin returned as migrants to the UK in the late 40s and I was brought up to work hard for a living." (All errors faithfully reproduced.)
He says he'll fight to reduce car park charges at the Sheffield hospitals, and accuses the Labour council of wasting money on cutting down trees, against the wishes of the public.
However, the main claim in the leaflet is that he'll champion Sheffield's steel industry, which he says is 'being sacrificed as part of a wider plan to reduce steel production within the EU'.
UKIP won't win, of course, but with a leaflet like that I could see them picking up a few votes from Labour.
Message to whoever is running this at Vote Leave - I shouldn't need to be logged in to F***book to watch your speeches live. There's a million other options for live streaming an event that don't require such invasion of personal privacy.
On topic, Goldsmith is running a deeply uninspiring campaign, which is odd, because I've been told he's a very impressive constituency MP, as his yuuuge majority shows.
It just shows what a genius Boris Johnson was to win London against the odds, a conservative you are quite happy to slam at every opportunity.
Boris has been a very good mayor. It doesn't mean he'd be a very good party leader, never mind PM.
YOu may be right. Quite what qualifies one to be a Prime Minister these days is beyond me.
My mother's carers have just had a pay cut, their pay has been reduced to the minimum wage. The firm is employing Roumanian workers now judging from the surnames. Didn't the last goverment commision a report as to why so many English are emigrating?
Mr. Eagles, I'm not a frequenter of lapdancing clubs, but was under the distinct impression that 'sex encounter' would be completely inaccurate as a classification for the establishments.
I once took a client to a meeting at Stringfellows.
They serve food there.
But you are right, you can't even touch the ladies, let alone bump uglies with the ladies, without the bouncers escorting you out head first
@JohnRentoul: "Remain are repeating the mistakes of the Scottish No campaign": David Herdson https://t.co/FvZRxuNxnl So that's good for Remain, then.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul He's talking about the disastrous campaign they won by 10 points I take it.
And destroyed the sub branch of the party that lead it, while subsequently increasing support for the losing proposition as oil prices tumble. A triumph.
Well indeed. Project Fear might have done the job *at the time* (though even that's debatable) but it's done nothing to settle the question for the long term.
Negative campaigns win electoral battles more often than not, but do they win wars? I'm guessing (with a fair bit of anecdotal evidence), that almost all the '45' feel good about the way they voted, some of the '55' not so much. If I were inclined towards the Union I'm pretty sure I'd be a bit hacked off at the paucity of positive cases made for it.
Key matches (Cup finals) involving Spurs, other London teams and midlands teams over the last 30 years:
1987: Coventry City 3 - Spurs 2 (FA Cup) L Thanks Mabbutt 1991: Spurs 2 - Forest 1 (FA Cup) W 1999: Leicester 0 - Spurs 1 (League cup) W 2008: Chelsea 1 - Spurs 2 (League cup) W 2015: Chelsea 2 - Spurs 0 (League cup) L
I was at 3 of those. The 2008 was one of the best sporting days of my life. The 1987 was predictable, took the lead after a couple of minutes and in true Spurs style assumed victory would follow. Glenda's last game for Spurs I believe.
Mr. Eagles, I'm not a frequenter of lapdancing clubs, but was under the distinct impression that 'sex encounter' would be completely inaccurate as a classification for the establishments.
I once took a client to a meeting at Stringfellows.
They serve food there.
But you are right, you can't even touch the ladies, let alone bump uglies with the ladies, without the bouncers escorting you out head first
You weren't in charge of regulating Stringfellows though. Whittingdale is seen to have been compromised, he has to go.
@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.
Positive But if we vote to leave, we take back control. We can take back the £350 million we give to the EU every week. We can spend more on our priorities like the NHS. We can take back control of our economy. Outside the EU we can cut those deals Outside the EU we would still benefit from the free trade zone which stretches from Iceland to the Russian border. We can take back control of our borders. Outside the EU we could have a points-based system like Australia. We could welcome talented people from across the world but block those whose presence here isn’t in our interests. Britain is a great country - the world’s fifth largest economy with the world’s best armed forces, best health service and best broadcaster. We are first in the world for soft power thanks to our language, culture and creativity. Britain could do better. We’re a uniquely inventive nation. Our greatest invention is representative democracy - the principle that the people who run our country should be chosen by us and can be kicked out by us. It’s time to take back control.
Negative I want us to vote to Leave the EU before it’s too late, because that’s the safer choice for Britain. If we vote to stay we’re not settling for a secure status quo. We’re voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car and driven headlong towards deeper EU integration. Brussels has already set out some of its plans for the next great transfer of powers to the EU in what’s called the “Five Presidents’ Report”. The EU wants more power over taxes and banks. Sadly, we’ve surrendered our veto on these moves. And - what’s worse - if we try to object, the European Court of Justice can overrule us. The Court has been strengthened through the new Charter of Fundamental Rights. It can now control how we apply asylum rules; how our intelligence services monitor suspected terrorists and whom we can deport. And just as we are losing all this power, we’re on the hook to pay more money as new countries join the EU. The EU has failed to secure trade deals with the huge economies of India, China and America. But we wouldn’t have all the EU regulations which cost our economy £600 million every week Inside the EU we have to accept that anyone with an EU passport - even if they have a criminal record - can breeze into this country. That will include countries in the pipeline to join the EU - Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. And yet the In camp try to suggest that we’re too small and too weak, and our people are too hapless and feckless to succeed without Jean-Claude Juncker looking after us. That’s a deeply pessimistic and negative vision.
@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.
The idea that every immigrant to Britain is a super high flying graduate is also untrue.
Michael he is not easy to listen to and he gives the impression of reading his speech. It is a bit rambling and not at all sure how he will impress the undecided. Boris is much better
@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.
The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.
Yes the EU has nurtured those impressive car emission regulations that have permitted diesil engines to cause massive harm to our city dwellers. But they are carbon friendly regulations with a side effect of deaths and chronic ill health....
Perhaps the most important piece of what we would now call environmental regulation in UK history was the Clean Air Act, which dates back to the 1950s. But apparently we now need to be told by the EU that thousands of people dying due to pollution is a bad thing.
Zero chance of either the UK devising and implementing different vehicle emissions standards or car manufacturers selling different lower spec ones in the UK
Culture Secretary John Whittingdale today admitted accepting free hospitality from a London lapdancing club while chairing an inquiry into its licensing regime.
Mr Whittingdale and two other MPs were treated to dinner with managers and two female performers.
The Cabinet minister insisted it was an official visit as part of an inquiry by the Culture, Media and Sport select committee into new laws cracking down on such establishments.
However, the evening was not recorded in the committee’s published records. Nor was the visit mentioned in the committee’s report, which came out against the proposed tougher laws, which aimed to curb the spread of lapdancing clubs by classing them as “sex encounter” venues.
Sandpit - "I wonder if Cameron has his mind on a top EU job in the event that he delivers the referendum for Remain?" - very close to wondering if he has been promised a top job - could the Conservative party survive David Cameron appearing in an EU job after a vote to remain?
Think Cameron cares what happens to the tory party after he delivers the UK into the arms of his masters in the EU?
That is one of the lessons of this referendum for me. And a very bitter one it is too.
Unfortunately I have to agree. I didn't expect the behaviour of the PM on this, it's what made me think that he's 'on a promise' of the EU Presidency if he can deliver the result in June.
He's clearly an outstanding politician, after all he has held his party together for more than 10 years and won an unlikely majority less than a year ago. Much as I personally am losing faith in him over the referendum, I imagine that the EU would be happy to make use his skills and experience in the years to come.
Mr. Eagles, I'm not a frequenter of lapdancing clubs, but was under the distinct impression that 'sex encounter' would be completely inaccurate as a classification for the establishments.
I once took a client to a meeting at Stringfellows.
They serve food there.
But you are right, you can't even touch the ladies, let alone bump uglies with the ladies, without the bouncers escorting you out head first
You weren't in charge of regulating Stringfellows though. Whittingdale is seen to have been compromised, he has to go.
He wasn't in charge of regulating clubs, he was an opposition MP chairing a parliamentary committee. It was an invitation to the whole committee, according to the article, and several MPs went ("Conservative MP Philip Davies and Labour’s Janet Anderson "). It seems pretty reasonable for a committee producing a report on a particular type of club to make such a visit and talk to the staff, surely?
I don't see much meat in this complaint, unless the visit wasn't properly disclosed.
Vote Leave’s ‘squeamishness about pressing the immigration button’
We’ve been learning a bit more in the past few days about the Leave campaign’s approach to this referendum.
While the man who led the team that failed to get official campaign designation, Arron Banks, was calling the Treasury costing of Brexit a bargain basement deal, the cheapest price tag ever attached to democracy, his old rivals who got the designation were rubbishing the numbers.
While the losing team have continued to make much of immigration in their arguments, there’s a squeamishness and sometimes something more than that in the official campaign about pressing the immigration button.
One Vote Leave board member told me the plan in the team Leave.eu called “the establishment” gang, is to leave the immigration argument largely to Nigel Farage and his allies. “Those people will turn out anyway,” the Leave Board source said.
In Michael Gove, the Leave team have a joint convenor and leading voice who has never been comfortable with the Theresa May line on immigration.
Comments
A triumph.
It would go some way to explaining his vehemence in campaigning, and he would be seen positively by the EU Elite as being determined to advance the Project forward once free of the burden of office under the Conservatives.
He's still not yet 50 and I can't see him doing a Blair and taking money from the world's despots for speeches and 'advice', so what will he do with his 'retirement'?
Look where they are now.
From a lead in the polling of about 10% at the start of the official campaign in June, Yes closed the gap to low single figures by the election day in September....... No actually ended up winning by 10.6%
Slightly confusing - was there a move to YES?*
I guess with the polling so banjaxed up we may never know...
*Cue plague of Nats defending their losing victorious campaign....
'Too weak, too feeble' isn't a great advert to the rest of the world. And doesn't say much about Osborne's management either.
I'd imagine he'll go down a similar route to Blair and Brown. Speeches for big wonga.
The Scottish Independence result was a great result for the Tory Party, as well as the UK.
We wouldn't have won a majority without it. The SPECTRE of 59 SNP MPs was a great campaigning weapon for us, alongside Dave, and George's magnificent stewardship of the economy.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/722345657160318976
The question is why were the polls wrong (again)? Was there a very late swing not picked up by the polls or were the polls systemically wrong throughout (i.e. did the true state of opinion drop from about 17% to about 10%).
My inclination would be towards the latter. It should be noted that the polls themselves covered quite a wide range at any given time but all trended much the same way. If there had been a late swing, you'd think, for example, that something would have shown up in postal votes cast up to two weeks before the nominal polling day. It didn't.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/michael_gove_s_oped_for_bbc_radio_4_today_programme
Trade deals are all about give and take, compromise and getting the best deal possible for both sides at the least cost. Between two countries this is a fairly straightforward if long winded process. Both sides (should) come to the table with a clear idea of what they want from the talks and will probably also have a fairly clear idea of what the other side wants as well even before the talks start. So a deal between, say, India and Brazil (and I have no idea if one exists) should be a relatively straightforward process of wrangling, give and take and compromise. This is also the sort of negotiation I would expect between the UK and another country. It may take time but it is limited in its complexity.
The trouble is that when one side is a single country and the other is a collection of 28 countries all with different priorities, red lines and areas open for discussion. Even with QMV that still means that there are 28 different governments trying to make sure that the trade delegation is pushing their particular priorities rather than those of a different member state. There have to be a huge number of compromises within the EU before they even get to the point of starting the discussions with the other side of the proposed deal.
This shows pretty clearly in the way in which EFTA have been able to secure trade deals with other countries well before the EU. When you are only dealing with the needs of 4 countries it makes the whole process a hell of a lot easier than dealing with the needs of 28.
So I do not see EU membership as a benefit in terms of trade deals. If countries want to trade with the UK they will make deals. In the end there will be a lot less compromise needed than we are having to have with being part of the EU.
My current W8 laptop is incredibly slow [4gb memory 500mb free space ] despite having no apps open bar Firefox. How much should I be paying?
I've totally lost faith in simply buying a laptop that works
@Big_G_NorthWales, thank you for your summary of views. I can well understand your turmoil. I also struggled with the decision (albeit jumped the other way) because I am naturally conservative and believe in dialogue and co-operation between countries. Yet I have come to the conclusion that we cannot confuse the macro and micro pictures. In micro terms the UK does, periodically, gain vetoes and opt-outs from the EU. Yet on a macro level the direction of travel is towards 'ever closer union'. I am not convinced the people's of Europe actually share this integration EUview held by many EU elites, but at the moment the elites EUview dominates. Ultimately, I feel that the UK leaving will better ensure we can gain the more flexible relationship with the EU Brits tend to want. It is not a gimme, but by leaving we free ourselves from large swathes of the political side of the Union, whilst through membership of a free trade deal, keep elements of the economic side of co-operation.
In terms of immigration, my personal decision to vote leave has very little to do with migration levels. I believe immigration is of net benefit to the UK, it has enriched us culturally and boosted economic prosperity. There are challenges associated with the scale of net migration in to the UK; I personally think the level at this particular time and in this particular context is too high, placing a high burden on public infrastructure and heightening public concern to levels that, if not addressed by our political leaders, will be a barrier to the development of a more sustainable immigration system going forwards. What I am more sure about however is that within the EU very little will change on net migration levels without us being overly restrictive on non-EU migration. If we leave the EU there is a chance we will opt-in to free movement of people so we will be back to square one here. But there is also a chance we have a different immigration policy that reduces net-EU migration. If you are concerned about migration levels then, I don't see how leaving the EU is much of a risk. At worse you have the same policy as before, and at best, you have a more bespoke system to the UK's needs.
We'll find out on the 24th.....
I think that's what it comes down to: the Government believe that the price of deepening access into the single market and maintaining 1/28th of the say in its rules is worth surrender of social, employment, regional, trade, regulatory, migration, justice and home affairs and fishery and agricultural policies.
Leavers do not.
But not being confident to win on those arguments alone (perhaps they feel it's too technocratic) they are relying on fear of risk of change to win their vote.
It is not a healthy way to settle the question, nor will it.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/live
Services are what this country is really good at and the lack of enthusiasm for a single market in them is a major source of our deficit with the EU. It can of course be argued that the extension of the single market in services would be even less likely without the UK being at the table but I think we need to be realistic about what we have achieved to date.
My instinct is that the phone polls have had a much better time of it for the last few years, after a period when YouGov was as good as anyone. But I need to check that out in more detail before committing to the thesis (not least because I'm wary of bias confirmation in favouring polls that produce what for me are 'better' results).
If you do vote Remain, please be under no illusions. Also take a look at the new deal plan on Vote Leave's website- you might be pleasantly surprised.
I implore you; please don't make a decision you might regret.
Outside the EU we have options. Inside the EU we are reluctant passengers hoping for the best.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/721941278674591744
That is one of the lessons of this referendum for me. And a very bitter one it is too.
WIndows Media Player has been removed in Windows 10 but it is still easy enough to download other DVD player software.
Or as suggested, upgrade your current laptop to 10, and then reset and re-install Windows and that may speed it up enough.
My W7 laptop is having a fan crisis and if I can't fix it - its done. Took me days to get W8 to run. I'm so irked. W7 is great, worked better with my smart TV and I'm just worried about buying an op system free laptop now.
5yrs ago, I'd have no qualms. I've w7 discs but suspect all the drivers won't work.
" the analysis does not model the impact on migration of the recent renegotiation, in line with the approach taken by the OBR at Budget 2016."
Section 3.47 p136.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/askjack/2016/feb/25/how-can-i-play-dvds-in-windows-10
Vote Leave have set out their plans for a new deal.
Have you read it yet?
You used to be interested in genuinely understanding the alternatives but it seems now you just want to critique them.
Equally interesting is the long term survivability of UKIP. They're proving to be extraordinarily inept for a party that's had so long to prepare for a referendum. One wonders what the point of them is, other than a job creation scheme for a gang of deadbeats.
http://www.eftasurv.int/internal-market-affairs/areas-of-competence/persons/employment-law-and-health-and-safety/
And:
If the UK stays in the EEA, the experience of Norway indicates that the UK will probably have to accept – without having any say – much of EU employment and social policy, including directives that cover: working time; acquired rights; part-time workers; collective redundancies; parental leave; and equal treatment. “Many employers would regard this as a high price to pay,” says Professor Barnard.
Hogan Lovells partner Elizabeth Slattery points out that this status could result in the UK still being bound by the Working Time Directive (WTD), with the added chance that the EU may remove the UK’s working time opt-out, “which many businesses would see as the worst of all worlds”. The opt-out allows workers who are 18 or over to choose to opt out of the 48-hour limit imposed by the Directive.
http://www.personneltoday.com/hr/british-exit-eu-cut-employment-red-tape/
Be aware of the need to set up the privacy settings when upgrading, otherwise your PC is calling MS all day every day.
twitter.com/DXBITGuy/status/658990057747951616
Check out that cool guy's Twitter account for more tips and tricks
Also go to the Task Manager and see the Startup tab - this lists all the programs that start with the PC - disable everything you don't want to run automatically when the PC starts, mostly these things run in the background taking up processor and memory.
If all fails - get a Mac. It's no worse than moving from one Windows PC to another, and for basic tasks they really do just work and don't slow down with age.
Let me know how you get on, PM me if you prefer, rather than spamming here with specific questions.
I wonder if we'll head the same way with published polling.
"It needs to do more than stress economic risks to make a positive impact on undecided voters"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/18/remain-campaign-stronger-in-europe-vote
Culture Secretary John Whittingdale today admitted accepting free hospitality from a London lapdancing club while chairing an inquiry into its licensing regime.
Mr Whittingdale and two other MPs were treated to dinner with managers and two female performers.
The Cabinet minister insisted it was an official visit as part of an inquiry by the Culture, Media and Sport select committee into new laws cracking down on such establishments.
However, the evening was not recorded in the committee’s published records. Nor was the visit mentioned in the committee’s report, which came out against the proposed tougher laws, which aimed to curb the spread of lapdancing clubs by classing them as “sex encounter” venues.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/culture-secretary-john-whittingdale-caught-in-lapdance-club-row-a3228586.html
I wonder whether it's that online polls tend to be activist-heavy. It's not so much that they have the wrong weightings as that the element of self-selection can't be entirely eliminated and that Leavers are more pumped up politically in general and more likely to join polling panels than Remainers?
That said, just two months ago I was able to back both years at double digit odds - his stock has declined considerably since then, that's for sure.
The candidate, Steve Winstone, says "I am Sheffield man Of mixed race, my family of Anglo-Indian origin returned as migrants to the UK in the late 40s and I was brought up to work hard for a living." (All errors faithfully reproduced.)
He says he'll fight to reduce car park charges at the Sheffield hospitals, and accuses the Labour council of wasting money on cutting down trees, against the wishes of the public.
However, the main claim in the leaflet is that he'll champion Sheffield's steel industry, which he says is 'being sacrificed as part of a wider plan to reduce steel production within the EU'.
UKIP won't win, of course, but with a leaflet like that I could see them picking up a few votes from Labour.
If the latter then the EU approach is wrong & the Leavers anti-immigration approach is right & we need to be more selective in who we let in.
They serve food there.
But you are right, you can't even touch the ladies, let alone bump uglies with the ladies, without the bouncers escorting you out head first
Others clearly are not so worried.
I'm guessing (with a fair bit of anecdotal evidence), that almost all the '45' feel good about the way they voted, some of the '55' not so much. If I were inclined towards the Union I'm pretty sure I'd be a bit hacked off at the paucity of positive cases made for it.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/722313716822372352
Positive
But if we vote to leave, we take back control.
We can take back the £350 million we give to the EU every week. We can spend more on our priorities like the NHS.
We can take back control of our economy.
Outside the EU we can cut those deals
Outside the EU we would still benefit from the free trade zone which stretches from Iceland to the Russian border.
We can take back control of our borders.
Outside the EU we could have a points-based system like Australia. We could welcome talented people from across the world but block those whose presence here isn’t in our interests.
Britain is a great country - the world’s fifth largest economy with the world’s best armed forces, best health service and best broadcaster.
We are first in the world for soft power thanks to our language, culture and creativity.
Britain could do better. We’re a uniquely inventive nation. Our greatest invention is representative democracy - the principle that the people who run our country should be chosen by us and can be kicked out by us. It’s time to take back control.
Negative
I want us to vote to Leave the EU before it’s too late, because that’s the safer choice for Britain.
If we vote to stay we’re not settling for a secure status quo.
We’re voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car and driven headlong towards deeper EU integration.
Brussels has already set out some of its plans for the next great transfer of powers to the EU in what’s called the “Five Presidents’ Report”.
The EU wants more power over taxes and banks.
Sadly, we’ve surrendered our veto on these moves.
And - what’s worse - if we try to object, the European Court of Justice can overrule us.
The Court has been strengthened through the new Charter of Fundamental Rights. It can now control how we apply asylum rules; how our intelligence services monitor suspected terrorists and whom we can deport.
And just as we are losing all this power, we’re on the hook to pay more money as new countries join the EU.
The EU has failed to secure trade deals with the huge economies of India, China and America.
But we wouldn’t have all the EU regulations which cost our economy £600 million every week
Inside the EU we have to accept that anyone with an EU passport - even if they have a criminal record - can breeze into this country. That will include countries in the pipeline to join the EU - Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey.
And yet the In camp try to suggest that we’re too small and too weak, and our people are too hapless and feckless to succeed without Jean-Claude Juncker looking after us.
That’s a deeply pessimistic and negative vision.
This is a faintly desperate story...
He's clearly an outstanding politician, after all he has held his party together for more than 10 years and won an unlikely majority less than a year ago. Much as I personally am losing faith in him over the referendum, I imagine that the EU would be happy to make use his skills and experience in the years to come.
I don't see much meat in this complaint, unless the visit wasn't properly disclosed.
We’ve been learning a bit more in the past few days about the Leave campaign’s approach to this referendum.
While the man who led the team that failed to get official campaign designation, Arron Banks, was calling the Treasury costing of Brexit a bargain basement deal, the cheapest price tag ever attached to democracy, his old rivals who got the designation were rubbishing the numbers.
While the losing team have continued to make much of immigration in their arguments, there’s a squeamishness and sometimes something more than that in the official campaign about pressing the immigration button.
One Vote Leave board member told me the plan in the team Leave.eu called “the establishment” gang, is to leave the immigration argument largely to Nigel Farage and his allies. “Those people will turn out anyway,” the Leave Board source said.
In Michael Gove, the Leave team have a joint convenor and leading voice who has never been comfortable with the Theresa May line on immigration.
http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/vote-leaves-squeamishness-pressing-immigration-button/32664