To return to Tissue Price's theme, other strange odds include John Kasich at 13.5 for the Republican nomination on Betfair. To get it, he needs:
1) Donald Trump to fall short of a majority of delegates; and 2) Either a) Ted Cruz to retire from the race; or b) the delegates, once released, to flock to him instead of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz (such evidence as we have suggests that Ted Cruz is in fact well-placed if it gets this far)
Oh, and he needs the nomination rules changed.
It must be something like a 50/1 shot now that it's not going to be either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, and John Kasich doesn't make up all that 50/1 shot either.
I would make Not Crump something like a 5% chance. Kasich is far too short, either way.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
'Worked' is an interesting word for a campaign that lost half its lead as it progressed. Of course by Darling's own measure (and as subsequent events have proved), he failed.
'For Alistair Darling, winning the Scottish referendum on 18 September will not be enough. The Yes camp “only have to win by one vote”, he warns. “We have to win this well.” Without a convincing victory, the spectre of independence could continue to haunt the pro-unionists – and as the former Chancellor says: “There is a general mood that people want to put this to bed for a generation.” Although the chairman of Better Together will not talk percentages, the feeling in his No campaign is that keeping Alex Salmond below the 40 per cent mark would be a decisive victory, while a much closer winning margin would not stop the Scottish National Party (SNP) coming back for more – and another referendum – within 10 years.'
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
So the document you posted last night doesn't exist?
You know it does.
Here's the thing: as ever the sign of the true fanatic, you harbour a secret doubt about your views. You lack the intellectual confidence needed to truly explore the boundaries of your opinions, and to constructively engage on the arguments, so all you have left is to ridicule, lampoon and stereotype your opponents. Thus freeing you of the hard work of thinking.
Why would I want to engage with that?
Now, I must do some work to deliver Europe's largest construction project. Y'know, the one that's entirely unaffected if we Leave or Remain.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Was you run in with him on the south coast bound Flying Scott-P-an ....
Based on the evidence of this thread, I wonder if there's not a simpler explanation to TP's conundrum: that a lot of punters simply don't understand the market they're betting on and are confusing 'Next PM' with 'PM after the Next GE'?
Yeah, I know I've snookered myself on this downthread but when I bet on that market I do actually *know* that it's about the next PM and bet accordingly.
For example, I haven't backed a single non-Tory yet because I'm convinced the next PM will be in this parliament and therefore a Tory. Even if Cameron stays all the way, if Corbyn is still there, I expect the PM post GE2020 to still be a Tory.
I just didn't read TP's article properly.
But you are a regular visitor to the net's main website on matters political betting; you are far more informed than the average joe in the street and based on your posts here (early morning pre-coffees apart), I'm quite sure that you're also much more informed than the average participant in political betting - yet even you misread the market or the piece in a moment of inattention. So how many more people are there who bet having misled themselves, either on what the market means or on the political processes involved?
I don't expect sell-outs like you, who gleefully mock our nation and ability to govern ourselves, to understand.
To whom did I sell what, and how much did I get for it?
I have been entirely consistent.
The arguments put forward by the Scottish separatists were completely fatuous, and have proven to be so.
The same arguments put forward by the Kipper separatists are equally bogus.
And anyone who claims we don't govern ourselves today deserves all the mockery I can muster.
And yet again you don't provide any evidence or reason, just blanket assertions and insults. It's like engaging with a toddler on the merits of his Daddy.
You truly are an idiot: an ignorant, but playful, serf, incapable of thinking for himself.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
I really think that's quite rich given the abuse many Leavers dish out on here day after day. All you have done is hurl abuse at him, "sell-out", "brainless" "incapable of thinking for himself" "like engaging with a toddler" "idiot" "ignorant" - yet somehow you see yourself on the moral high ground, really?
Also pretty hypocritical given that SP has always posted in similar vain but I don't recall you having any complaints when he was mocking Labor and ramping up the Tories. All he is done is committed the cardinal sin of preferring to remain in the EU.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
I don't expect sell-outs like you, who gleefully mock our nation and ability to govern ourselves, to understand.
To whom did I sell what, and how much did I get for it?
I have been entirely consistent.
The arguments put forward by the Scottish separatists were completely fatuous, and have proven to be so.
The same arguments put forward by the Kipper separatists are equally bogus.
And anyone who claims we don't govern ourselves today deserves all the mockery I can muster.
And yet again you don't provide any evidence or reason, just blanket assertions and insults. It's like engaging with a toddler on the merits of his Daddy.
You truly are an idiot: an ignorant, but playful, serf, incapable of thinking for himself.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
I really think that's quite rich given the abuse many Leavers dish out on here day after day. All you have done is hurl abuse at him, "sell-out", "brainless" "incapable of thinking for himself" "like engaging with a toddler" "idiot" "ignorant" - yet somehow you see yourself on the moral high ground, really?
Also pretty hypocritical given that SP has always posted in similar vain but I don't recall you having any complaints when he was mocking Labor and ramping up the Tories. All he is done is committed the cardinal sin of preferring to remain in the EU.
Bollocks.
He has thrown 'Kipper', 'Zoomer', and sarcasm with no attempt to engage with the arguments whatsoever.
No side has a monopoly on abuse or the high ground.
I respect posters on both sides of the argument - Remain and Leave.
Others I have no time for.
If i want partisan jousting I can go anywhere for that. Here I expect analysis and insight that you don't get elsewhere.
Jezza's scowling, reluctant endorsement of Remain yesterday can only be good for Remain. Labour undecideds will think: if Jeremy can make the journey then maybe Remain isn't so bad after all; Tory undecideds will think: if someone like Corbyn has to be dragged kicking and screaming from Leave then Leave couldn't have been that great to start with. Interesting.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Although @Scott_P and I are on different sides of this particular issue, I agree with you John that he is a splendid asset to PB threads and always worth pausing for when I'm in thread skimming mode.
To be fair to Jezza (and I seldom am), he gave an honest assessment of his reasons for wanting a remain vote. Basically ... "With me as Labour leader, we've no chance of being elected, so the only way to get our policies enacted is to use a large proxy like the EU to swamp our country's voters.
So as I'm Catholic, it's the equivalent of saying ... " As lots of you aren't keen on Papism, I'll vote for unification with a larger Catholic Country so you'll just have to suck it up.""
Possibly a little over the top, but it leaves me feeling uneasy, even if I do agree with some of their less-Tory policies.
However, for Internationalists, like wot Jezza is, it makes perfect sense.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
Only in a deluded mind, keep stirring that cauldron
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
I'd stick to cut and paste if I were you. Analysis is not your strong point.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
Only in a deluded mind, keep stirring that cauldron
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Exalted company. Praise indeed....
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Yes he is. Much the best cutter and paster on here. Witty and relevant. Even when he was blowing Ed out of the water during the last election with some cleverly found quotes he was making me laugh.
(I don't think he got the better of Tim though. Few did)
I might see if I can leave the country that day...
Perhaps one of the world statesmen that favours Leave will jet in to give an alternative viewpoint... oh, sorry, I was forgetting there aren't any.
Why do some REMAINERS want foreigners to tell us what to do? Be it the EU or heads of other Governments. Quite bizarre. Why do you not wish this country to be run by its own citizens?
PS former Australian premier John Howard backs Britain to leave EU - just saying....
Jezza's scowling, reluctant endorsement of Remain yesterday can only be good for Remain. Labour undecideds will think: if Jeremy can make the journey then maybe Remain isn't so bad after all; Tory undecideds will think: if someone like Corbyn has to be dragged kicking and screaming from Leave then Leave couldn't have been that great to start with. Interesting.
Putting the content to one side for a moment, what's far more important for the longer term is how pathetically poor Jezza is at this kind of set piece presentation. How on earth he will come across doing this repeatedly during GE2020 is beyond me. I guess Labour will try to run a "it's a team" campaign.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
'Worked' is an interesting word for a campaign that lost half its lead as it progressed. Of course by Darling's own measure (and as subsequent events have proved), he failed.
'For Alistair Darling, winning the Scottish referendum on 18 September will not be enough. The Yes camp “only have to win by one vote”, he warns. “We have to win this well.” Without a convincing victory, the spectre of independence could continue to haunt the pro-unionists – and as the former Chancellor says: “There is a general mood that people want to put this to bed for a generation.” Although the chairman of Better Together will not talk percentages, the feeling in his No campaign is that keeping Alex Salmond below the 40 per cent mark would be a decisive victory, while a much closer winning margin would not stop the Scottish National Party (SNP) coming back for more – and another referendum – within 10 years.'
The main lesson that I took from the GE is that shy Tories are alive and well but remain demned elusive to the pollsters who seek them here and seek them there.
My theory is that the betting markets have gone lefty-biased since exchanges made gambling acceptable to metropolitan elites.
Money on Corbyn to win leadership switched late, too, which makes me think it is centrist lefty metropolitan elites.
My most left-wing friend bet on a Tory majority last May. He wanted something to cheer himself up if that catastrophe (in his mind) happened. He won of course and bought himself a high-end digital radio with the proceeds I believe.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
Only in a deluded mind, keep stirring that cauldron
Emigrated yet, turnip?
LOL, desperation sets in, as it happens I am just back from the Fatherland
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Although @Scott_P and I are on different sides of this particular issue, I agree with you John that he is a splendid asset to PB threads and always worth pausing for when I'm in thread skimming mode.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
At least tim subscribed to the concept of original thought, all I can see from Scott is retwat after retwat. I'm with the PM on Twitter and I'm looking forward to the day they run out of start up funding.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
'Worked' is an interesting word for a campaign that lost half its lead as it progressed. Of course by Darling's own measure (and as subsequent events have proved), he failed.
'For Alistair Darling, winning the Scottish referendum on 18 September will not be enough. The Yes camp “only have to win by one vote”, he warns. “We have to win this well.” Without a convincing victory, the spectre of independence could continue to haunt the pro-unionists – and as the former Chancellor says: “There is a general mood that people want to put this to bed for a generation.” Although the chairman of Better Together will not talk percentages, the feeling in his No campaign is that keeping Alex Salmond below the 40 per cent mark would be a decisive victory, while a much closer winning margin would not stop the Scottish National Party (SNP) coming back for more – and another referendum – within 10 years.'
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
Yes it has got, um, heated on here which is amusing and disappointing especially as many non-Jocks on PB pointed and laughed (myself included) at the bile swinging back and forth during IndyRef.
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats. The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.
What are you complaining about?
It worked last time.
Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....
'Worked' is an interesting word for a campaign that lost half its lead as it progressed. Of course by Darling's own measure (and as subsequent events have proved), he failed.
'For Alistair Darling, winning the Scottish referendum on 18 September will not be enough. The Yes camp “only have to win by one vote”, he warns. “We have to win this well.” Without a convincing victory, the spectre of independence could continue to haunt the pro-unionists – and as the former Chancellor says: “There is a general mood that people want to put this to bed for a generation.” Although the chairman of Better Together will not talk percentages, the feeling in his No campaign is that keeping Alex Salmond below the 40 per cent mark would be a decisive victory, while a much closer winning margin would not stop the Scottish National Party (SNP) coming back for more – and another referendum – within 10 years.'
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
The Nottingham one last year was most congenial. Very interesting to put faces to names, including the header writer. Difficult for me to make the London ones though.
Scott P writes very well when he posts something other than twitter links to wind up the Nats.
To be fair to Jezza (and I seldom am), he gave an honest assessment of his reasons for wanting a remain vote. Basically ... "With me as Labour leader, we've no chance of being elected, so the only way to get our policies enacted is to use a large proxy like the EU to swamp our country's voters. ..
Yes the fact is that Corbyn views the EU now as inherently socialist. Which is what Jacques Delors promised. The question is, why would Conservatives want to be part of something with socialist policies? Now I can understand Ted Heath and the pre-Thatcher wets being comfortable with even though it is a failed economic and political system. Maybe it has been the increase in the prevalence within the EU of socialist and statist policies and regulations that is really the cause of its economic stagnation, in recent years, affecting some of its original and early members?
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
shame, he was always entertaining and was pretty sharp on his observations.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Exalted company. Praise indeed....
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
I can't help but think the remainers are defending party rather than having a bit of free thinking fun.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Although @Scott_P and I are on different sides of this particular issue, I agree with you John that he is a splendid asset to PB threads and always worth pausing for when I'm in thread skimming mode.
It is April 1st or has everyone one went mental.
It's EU ref malc, we've all gone off on one. Common sense went out the window yonks back.
Still should give the Scots a laugh to see everyone else is just a bonkers around a referendum.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Didn't he have an outstanding bet with someone here? Or was it settled?
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Didn't he have an outstanding bet with someone here? Or was it settled?
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Didn't he have an outstanding bet with someone here? Or was it settled?
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
I think if your turnout number is right, then your Leave percentage will be pretty close (albeit I'm probably a little less optimistic than you, in particular with regards to the break of DKs).
I think that Remain gets perhps 70% of the turnout increase between 55% and 65%. Essentially, they need 63-64% to tip the scales to Remain.
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
Yes it has got, um, heated on here which is amusing and disappointing especially as many non-Jocks on PB pointed and laughed (myself included) at the bile swinging back and forth during IndyRef.
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
I've been to quite a few PB gatherings though not recently. They are rather like the famous Christmas Day in No Mans Land 1914. Attendees arrive with the expectation that they are likely to be killed for their known alliegances and former actions if they don't first kill their opponents. But on arrival there is an eerie lull and before long an unexpected fellow feeling and warmth develops towards one another, friend and foe alike. Mike Smithson buys everyone three or four swift pints and soon old enemies are embracing and carousing. Then the traditional football kick about starts in the car park.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Exalted company. Praise indeed....
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
I can't help but think the remainers are defending party rather than having a bit of free thinking fun.
All I am doing is bringing my usual incisive, clinical, insightful analysis to issues around the EU Brexit debate.
Leavers are having more fun because they are dreaming that the whole country might tell their boss to f&&k off and what could be more fun than that?
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
I think it is the nature of any close run referendum. Those in favour of the status quo are the losers, and those who want change the winners.
You will therefore expect those who might get their toys taken away to be more negative, and more scared. By contrast, those who might get that change they desire have nothing to lose. They are keyed up and excited.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Didn't he have an outstanding bet with someone here? Or was it settled?
I thought I was out on my ear last week when I couldn't post anymore but it turned out I'd had one too many posts removed and been "locked out" by Vanilla.
Lovely Mike S sorted it out all for me so now I am able to post with you all inhibited... I know how happy and relieved everyone must be about this.
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
I think if your turnout number is right, then your Leave percentage will be pretty close (albeit I'm probably a little less optimistic than you, in particular with regards to the break of DKs).
I think that Remain gets perhps 70% of the turnout increase between 55% and 65%. Essentially, they need 63-64% to tip the scales to Remain.
Hence, Project Fear.
wrt arc furnaces.
I was listening a R4 this morning and a Cambridge chappy was saying they are working on ways to improve product quality from conventional scrap so that you could cost effectively make the highest grades of steel without a blast furnace, Sounded fairly sensible but needs funding.
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Mr O, any idea whatever happened Neil ?
He's fine but I think has lost interest in pb for the moment.
Didn't he have an outstanding bet with someone here? Or was it settled?
Isam has been banned. Again.
That has no effect on an outstanding wager. Either Neil has some issues, in which case he has my sympathies - or he's a common or garden welcher... which is NOT the impression I got from him. I'll assume it's the former.
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
Yes it has got, um, heated on here which is amusing and disappointing especially as many non-Jocks on PB pointed and laughed (myself included) at the bile swinging back and forth during IndyRef.
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
I've been to quite a few PB gatherings though not recently. They are rather like the famous Christmas Day in No Mans Land 1914. Attendees arrive with the expectation that they are likely to be killed for their known alliegances and former actions if they don't first kill their opponents. But on arrival there is an eerie lull and before long an unexpected fellow feeling and warmth develops towards one another, friend and foe alike. Mike Smithson buys everyone three or four swift pints and soon old enemies are embracing and carousing. Then the traditional football kick about starts in the car park.
And after some stern words from high commands, back to several years of attritional slaughter the day after.
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
I think if your turnout number is right, then your Leave percentage will be pretty close (albeit I'm probably a little less optimistic than you, in particular with regards to the break of DKs). I think that Remain gets perhps 70% of the turnout increase between 55% and 65%. Essentially, they need 63-64% to tip the scales to Remain. Hence, Project Fear.
Feedback appreciated as you have demonstrated a good grasp of top level numbers such as forecasting Lib Dem MPs at the GE.
On your point about Project Fear, the effect of Project Fear may in a long, long campaign be counter productive. If voters become increasingly disillusioned, even bored by this pantomine of communications, "oh yes it is, oh no its not", may drive turnout down. Labour voting working class are IMHO more open to having excuses to stay at home and not vote. Also the unemployed and their dependents have no skin in the game.
I based my numbers on a little guesstimated spread sheet with key numbers about turnout by GE2015 party and with a weighting based on their enthusiasm to vote. At the time I did not have much faith in it and said so. Looking at it now it looks much more possible. TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
I think if your turnout number is right, then your Leave percentage will be pretty close (albeit I'm probably a little less optimistic than you, in particular with regards to the break of DKs).
I think that Remain gets perhps 70% of the turnout increase between 55% and 65%. Essentially, they need 63-64% to tip the scales to Remain.
Hence, Project Fear.
Interesting but how on earth do they work that out? Where do the supposedly Leave inclined but generally non-voting C2s, D's and E's feature in this calculation?
Sorry, but Bravo to Scott P: he is perhaps this site's most acerbic, caustic, occasionally brutal denizen. He routed tim on most occasions and usually gets the better of Sean Thomas on the rare occurences where they have jousted. I have had one-run in with him too (declaration of interest).
Yes he is. Much the best cutter and paster on here. Witty and relevant. Even when he was blowing Ed out of the water during the last election with some cleverly found quotes he was making me laugh.
(I don't think he got the better of Tim though. Few did)
I miss Tim because his caustic criticism of the Tories provided excellent balance.
I still think this site is the most balanced for political debate even without him, although we could do with a few more lefties (Tim was like three in one) and it's a fave place to learn for an uneducated, unprincipled, easily swayed, naive citizen like me.
Your pieces on marketing and the Oscars were superb by the way Mr Roger, no matter how much of a lefty w*nker you are
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
Yes it has got, um, heated on here which is amusing and disappointing especially as many non-Jocks on PB pointed and laughed (myself included) at the bile swinging back and forth during IndyRef.
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
I can't speak for what others thought of me in person, but I enjoyed meeting everyone and everyone was polite: BJO, TSE, Mike, Peter the Punter, Marf, Hertsmere, Cyclefree, Sunil, Pulpstar, and Sean Fear.
I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.
I have better things to do.
ROFL
I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...
I rest my case
amazing.
so far you haven't actually had a case.
He wants to fight the Leave bogeyman as he imagines it to be, rather than engage with how it actually is.
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
Currently PB is just mindless sledging. Some of the claims being made are just nonsense.
It's not quite mindless. It does have the odd moment of humour that makes it just about worth wading through.
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
Quite right. If you're going to sledge, at least be funny.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
Exalted company. Praise indeed....
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
I can't help but think the remainers are defending party rather than having a bit of free thinking fun.
All I am doing is bringing my usual incisive, clinical, insightful analysis to issues around the EU Brexit debate.
Leavers are having more fun because they are dreaming that the whole country might tell their boss to f&&k off and what could be more fun than that?
No you're voting for what makes sense for you ( Remain ), I'm voting for what makes sense for me ( Leave ).
Neither of us has a monopoly on what's "best" for the country, since frankly nobody knows.
"Guido hears that Shueb Salar, the Sadiq Khan aide who was sacked for claiming the murder of Lee Rigby was “fake” and tweeting about “hoes, bitches and faggots“, has been applying to Labour MPs looking for a new job. He hasn’t been suspended from the party then…
So far Salar has been unsuccessful, MPs have only had to Google his name to find out about his unfortunate recent history. They were however surprised to see who Salar had put down as his reference: Sadiq Khan, who publicly has tried to distance himself from his radical aide. “Punctual, conscientious, occasional tendency to extremism…”"
I see that PB continues to stand for Partisan Bile.
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
Yes it has got, um, heated on here which is amusing and disappointing especially as many non-Jocks on PB pointed and laughed (myself included) at the bile swinging back and forth during IndyRef.
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
I've been to quite a few PB gatherings though not recently. They are rather like the famous Christmas Day in No Mans Land 1914. Attendees arrive with the expectation that they are likely to be killed for their known alliegances and former actions if they don't first kill their opponents. But on arrival there is an eerie lull and before long an unexpected fellow feeling and warmth develops towards one another, friend and foe alike. Mike Smithson buys everyone three or four swift pints and soon old enemies are embracing and carousing. Then the traditional football kick about starts in the car park.
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
I think it is the nature of any close run referendum. Those in favour of the status quo are the losers, and those who want change the winners.
You will therefore expect those who might get their toys taken away to be more negative, and more scared. By contrast, those who might get that change they desire have nothing to lose. They are keyed up and excited.
Comments
I haven't had the heart to tell him that Vote Leave isn't run by 'Kippers', and in fact the campaign committee is a joint Tory-Labour affair.
'For Alistair Darling, winning the Scottish referendum on 18 September will not be enough. The Yes camp “only have to win by one vote”, he warns. “We have to win this well.” Without a convincing victory, the spectre of independence could continue to haunt the pro-unionists – and as the former Chancellor says: “There is a general mood that people want to put this to bed for a generation.”
Although the chairman of Better Together will not talk percentages, the feeling in his No campaign is that keeping Alex Salmond below the 40 per cent mark would be a decisive victory, while a much closer winning margin would not stop the Scottish National Party (SNP) coming back for more – and another referendum – within 10 years.'
http://tinyurl.com/z342exk
My theory is that the betting markets have gone lefty-biased since exchanges made gambling acceptable to metropolitan elites.
Money on Corbyn to win leadership switched late, too, which makes me think it is centrist lefty metropolitan elites.
Here's the thing: as ever the sign of the true fanatic, you harbour a secret doubt about your views. You lack the intellectual confidence needed to truly explore the boundaries of your opinions, and to constructively engage on the arguments, so all you have left is to ridicule, lampoon and stereotype your opponents. Thus freeing you of the hard work of thinking.
Why would I want to engage with that?
Now, I must do some work to deliver Europe's largest construction project. Y'know, the one that's entirely unaffected if we Leave or Remain.
Good day.
Now, I really must be off.
I'll get my train whistle ....
"like engaging with a toddler" "idiot" "ignorant" - yet somehow you see yourself on the moral high ground, really?
Also pretty hypocritical given that SP has always posted in similar vain but I don't recall you having any complaints when he was mocking Labor and ramping up the Tories. All he is done is committed the cardinal sin of preferring to remain in the EU.
I might see if I can leave the country that day...
That said, nothing to beat my all-time sledging favourite.
One of the all time great bowlers, Glen McGrath was getting frustrated at being unable to dismiss little known Zimbabwean cricketer Eddo Brandes.
McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”
Brandes “Because every time I f*ck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
He has thrown 'Kipper', 'Zoomer', and sarcasm with no attempt to engage with the arguments whatsoever.
No side has a monopoly on abuse or the high ground.
I respect posters on both sides of the argument - Remain and Leave.
Others I have no time for.
If i want partisan jousting I can go anywhere for that. Here I expect analysis and insight that you don't get elsewhere.
MalcolmG, SeanT and your good self all regularly make me chuckle.
James Blunt is the ultimate hero at putdowns.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/29/enter-the-politicalbetting-eu-referendum-competition-to-win-a-250-free-bet-at-william-hill/
So as I'm Catholic, it's the equivalent of saying ... " As lots of you aren't keen on Papism, I'll vote for unification with a larger Catholic Country so you'll just have to suck it up.""
Possibly a little over the top, but it leaves me feeling uneasy, even if I do agree with some of their less-Tory policies.
However, for Internationalists, like wot Jezza is, it makes perfect sense.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/james-blunt-twitter-comebacks#.ue3MaZ1Ln7
http://talkobamato.me/synthesize.py?speech_key=7013def7587f556d2da9641028165aa6
It does seem that the Leavers are actually having some fun, whilst the Remainders are enjoying the Referendum slightly less than anaesthetic-free root canal.
Maybe that's just down to them having grave doubts about the product they are selling?
(I don't think he got the better of Tim though. Few did)
PS former Australian premier John Howard backs Britain to leave EU - just saying....
What puzzles me is not that political people are mutually hostile, but why anyone goes near a PB gathering.
The main lesson that I took from the GE is that shy Tories are alive and well but remain demned elusive to the pollsters who seek them here and seek them there.
http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/adams-defends-opposing-eu-antiterrorism-laws-34629241.html
TCPoliticalBetting LEAVE 53.65 TURNOUT 55.38
I try to listen to the message, not the mode of delivery, and discount the internet heroism. It works quite well for me, but that's not to say we are covering ourselves in glory.
PB gathering? Never have done and prob won't although I am intrigued if the bile continues at them or if everyone clasps hands warmly and laughs about it.
Of course it's not even 'we' for you migrant Yoons.
Scott P writes very well when he posts something other than twitter links to wind up the Nats.
Still should give the Scots a laugh to see everyone else is just a bonkers around a referendum.
Who can forget Betfair offering a Tory majority at close to 2/1 after the Nuneaton result came in.
I think that Remain gets perhps 70% of the turnout increase between 55% and 65%. Essentially, they need 63-64% to tip the scales to Remain.
Hence, Project Fear.
Leavers are having more fun because they are dreaming that the whole country might tell their boss to f&&k off and what could be more fun than that?
You will therefore expect those who might get their toys taken away to be more negative, and more scared. By contrast, those who might get that change they desire have nothing to lose. They are keyed up and excited.
Lovely Mike S sorted it out all for me so now I am able to post with you all inhibited... I know how happy and relieved everyone must be about this.
I was listening a R4 this morning and a Cambridge chappy was saying they are working on ways to improve product quality from conventional scrap so that you could cost effectively make the highest grades of steel without a blast furnace, Sounded fairly sensible but needs funding.
On your point about Project Fear, the effect of Project Fear may in a long, long campaign be counter productive. If voters become increasingly disillusioned, even bored by this pantomine of communications, "oh yes it is, oh no its not", may drive turnout down. Labour voting working class are IMHO more open to having excuses to stay at home and not vote. Also the unemployed and their dependents have no skin in the game.
I still think this site is the most balanced for political debate even without him, although we could do with a few more lefties (Tim was like three in one) and it's a fave place to learn for an uneducated, unprincipled, easily swayed, naive citizen like me.
Your pieces on marketing and the Oscars were superb by the way Mr Roger, no matter how much of a lefty w*nker you are
Neither of us has a monopoly on what's "best" for the country, since frankly nobody knows.
"Guido hears that Shueb Salar, the Sadiq Khan aide who was sacked for claiming the murder of Lee Rigby was “fake” and tweeting about “hoes, bitches and faggots“, has been applying to Labour MPs looking for a new job. He hasn’t been suspended from the party then…
So far Salar has been unsuccessful, MPs have only had to Google his name to find out about his unfortunate recent history. They were however surprised to see who Salar had put down as his reference: Sadiq Khan, who publicly has tried to distance himself from his radical aide. “Punctual, conscientious, occasional tendency to extremism…”"