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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it now the left who bet with their hearts?

It always used to be the received wisdom that rich over-optimistic Tories were responsible for keeping the Conservative price short and their seat spread high. Famously one such Tory lost over £100k in 1997, because of his faith that John Major would not do as badly as he did.

Read the full story here

JackW

Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

11500 seconds

gettingbetter

Good article but if you really think there is an 80% chance Cameron will fight the next GE there must be better ways to playing that laying Corbyn as next Pm.

SouthamObserver

The idea of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is so ludicrous that it is hard to compute. Surely Corbyn himself knows it is not a job he is suited for or capable of doing. If it ever happened - which it won't, of course - I'd expect him to stand down within weeks of being appointed.

On another note I have spent the week in Taiwan and now Korea at two conferences we have been running. Everyone knows that the EU referendum is taking place in the UK, no-one believes when I say that Leave is very possibly, even probably, going to win. For the Asian companies that have been attending the events - and use your imagination to work out who they are - Europe is very much a single market.

logical_song

UKIP continue to do badly, LibDems doing well, Tories badly last night.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Menheniot (Cornwall) result:
CON: 40.5% (+2.5)
LDEM: 35.9% (+11.6)
UKIP: 13.5% (-17.7)
LAB: 5.1% (+5.1)
GRN: 5.0% (-1.5)

Wadebridge West (Cornwall) result:
LDEM: 43.5% (+19.2)
CON: 25.6% (-39.9)
LAB: 16.0% (+5.8)
IND: 8.0% (+8.0)
GRN: 6.8% (+6.8)
114 retweets 84 likes
Liberal Democrat GAIN Wadebridge West (Cornwall) from Conservative.

Taunton Halcon (Taunton Deane) result:
LDEM: 43.0% (+2.7)
CON: 24.6% (-11.0)
LAB: 14.7% (+14.7)
UKIP: 13.1% (+13.1)
GRN: 4.6% (-19.5)

Plato_Says

FPT @CarlottaVance, that's a brilliant piss take

tlg86

Excellent article. I wonder to what extent people aren't thinking these things through rather than being overly optimistic. How many people realise that the Democratic nomination is a done deal? And how many people realise that Cameron has said he will be standing down before the next election?

AlastairMeeks

It's not just the left.

Though I laid Jeremy Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 7.4 a few days ago. I have a very nice book in that market having laid Ed Miliband at very short prices.

blackburn63

Very interesting article, I'd suggest 90% of bets are placed with the heart, I can't imagine tories ever backing Corbyn or labourites backing Cameron, the vast majority of punters don't think like that. Serious, impartial, successful punters are very rare.

asjohnstone

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Indigo

More "threesome" idiocy, now online "privacy" groups leaning on Google to take down links to related stories, but only for google.co.uk, if you use any other their other search engines it's still there, more proof the legal profession doesn't have the remotest idea how the internet works

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/celebrity-threesome-injunction-google-blocks-search-results

Also, this is not going to go down well with a lot of voters

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/foreign-aid-spending-to-overtake-council-funding-next-year

Foreign aid spending will outstrip the amount given to councils to collect bins, install street lights and run local services for the first time next year, official government estimates show.

blackburn63

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Is he allowed to do that under a fixed parliament?

Blue_rog

Anyone thought that Corbyn's backers may be placing 'saver' bets? Something to ease the pain of Corbyn winning. I did the same with the 6 Nations and was pleased I didn't collect.

Innocent_Abroad

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

blackburn63

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

Innocent_Abroad

blackburn63 said:

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Is he allowed to do that under a fixed parliament?

With a repeal Bill duly passed, yes. Would it pass? No idea.

Blue_rog

BTW I hope someone picked up on Corbyn's opening statement in his pro-EU speech! I found it very amusing and a really dry, humorous comment. First time I've felt a positive emotion connected with Corbyn.

Innocent_Abroad

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

Your view and mine are compatible. I doubt much political betting is done in betting shops.

ThreeQuidder

blackburn63 said:

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Is he allowed to do that under a fixed parliament?

Not unilaterally, but a one line Bill to amend the FTPA would do the job and be difficult for the Opposition to reject.

blackburn63

Innocent_Abroad said:

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

Your view and mine are compatible. I doubt much political betting is done in betting shops.

Why? There is no reason to think people that used to use betting shops don't now bet online. It would arguably be the case that "right wingers" bet in larger sums but there are more "left wing" punters. The biggest section in society that bets is young men.

Moses_

SouthamObserver said:

The idea of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is so ludicrous that it is hard to compute. Surely Corbyn himself knows it is not a job he is suited for or capable of doing. If it ever happened - which it won't, of course - I'd expect him to stand down within weeks of being appointed.

On another note I have spent the week in Taiwan and now Korea at two conferences we have been running. Everyone knows that the EU referendum is taking place in the UK, no-one believes when I say that Leave is very possibly, even probably, going to win. For the Asian companies that have been attending the events - and use your imagination to work out who they are - Europe is very much a single market.

I don't think many people have a problem with a single market I am sure I don't and never did even back in the days where it developed from Benelux. I think the problems really arise with the political aspect of this and the mission creep of the faceless, unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats and non entities at the top table in Brussels and their constant interference in what should be only a national consideration.

I can vote out the PM of this country along with others yet in reality, powerless to vote out someone at the Brussels top table. ( yes I know we have Mp's that we can vote for that can supposedly do that but it's a tiny amount compared to the total MEPs involved) . Most recently Brown slipped through the back door and signed Lisbon when he thought no one was looking. This sealed the deal in many political dimensions not least regarding treaty changes and further development of the political agenda by Brussels.

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

We will also continue massive financial contributions perhaps increased as remaining rebates are clawed / demanded back. Quite simply we contribute to our own downfall and in equal measure will be subsequently ignored as we are drawn in further. History will not treat us kindly as a result and neither will the EU.

CarlottaVance

Plato_Says said:

FPT @CarlottaVance, that's a brilliant piss take

I expect the famous injunction lawyers really don't like being laughed at!

Blue_rog

Moses_ said:

SouthamObserver said:

The idea of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is so ludicrous that it is hard to compute. Surely Corbyn himself knows it is not a job he is suited for or capable of doing. If it ever happened - which it won't, of course - I'd expect him to stand down within weeks of being appointed.

On another note I have spent the week in Taiwan and now Korea at two conferences we have been running. Everyone knows that the EU referendum is taking place in the UK, no-one believes when I say that Leave is very possibly, even probably, going to win. For the Asian companies that have been attending the events - and use your imagination to work out who they are - Europe is very much a single market.

I don't think many people have a problem with a single market I am sure I don't and never did even back in the days where it developed from Benelux. I think the problems really arise with the political aspect of this and the mission creep of the faceless, unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats and non entities at the top table in Brussels and their constant interference in what should be only a national consideration.

I can vote out the PM of this country along with others yet in reality, powerless to vote out someone at the Brussels top table. ( yes I know we have Mp's that we can vote for that can supposedly do that but it's a tiny amount compared to the total MEPs involved) . Most recently Brown slipped through the back door and signed Lisbon when he thought no one was looking. This sealed the deal in many political dimensions not least regarding treaty changes and further development of the political agenda by Brussels.

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

We will also continue massive financial contributions perhaps increased as remaining rebates are clawed / demanded back. Quite simply we contribute to our own downfall and in equal measure will be subsequently ignored as we are drawn in further. History will not treat us kindly as a result and neither will the EU.

Like, like, like, like

david_herdson

For Corbyn, yes, the odds are indeed ludicrous. The biggest hurdle is the one Tissue Price rightly identifies in Cameron's pre-announced retirement. If that happens midterm (i.e. any time before the election itself), then his successor will be a Tory and hence not Corbyn. And as he also points out, both Cameron and Corbyn have to make it through to the election, which I'd put at a good deal less than the 12% he implies.

Unless Cameron is bestriding the scene come 2018/19, there's no way that he'll continue even if he wants to (and I'm not that sure he does) - and he's looking a long way from being that kind of dominant figure. Never mind making it to 2020, there's a decent chance he won't make it to September.

On the other hand, Corbyn isn't the kind of Brown-like character who's likely to cling to power at all costs. If he does fall some way behind the Tories - and if he can be reasonably assured that a more popular successor of a similar policy stance would win a new contest - I could quite easily see him stand down. There are a few hurdles there but Corbyn has two or three years to consolidate the left's grip on power within Labour before it's necessary to think about falling on swords; time enough.

There is one scenario we shouldn't entirely rule out although it's not likely and doesn't affect the main thrust of the article: that Cameron seeks to manipulate an early election.

The FTPA has a loophole that allows a majority government to call an early election. While it can't ram a motion through the Commons to force a dissolution unless it has the support of 434 MPs, only a simple majority is needed for motions of confidence. A government in crisis or a government seeking to take advantage of an opposition in crisis could therefore resign, safe in the knowledge that it could block any alternative ministry - which would lead directly to a dissolution in two weeks.

Except that there is a risk that having effectively resigned (more accurately, forced a loss of a Confidence motion), it's possible that rather than keep Cameron on as an acting PM until a new government won a Confidence motion, the Queen could turn to the Leader of the Opposition, whether or not he had the support of the House. There is precedent for that from 1905. Rules are different now and if Corbyn lost a vote in the Commons - which he would - it's unclear what would happen next. All the same, he would have been PM.

I don't think it's a likely scenario. That kind of game-playing goes down badly with the public, I doubt Cameron will be inclined to call early elections to capitalise on Labour's problems and if his government is in crisis it's far more likely to lead to his resignation than that of the government. All the same, it's a possibility to keep in mind.

AlastairMeeks

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

You might want to ponder the words"or his replacement" in the context of the Next Prime Minister" market.

CarlottaVance

Blue_rog said:

BTW I hope someone picked up on Corbyn's opening statement in his pro-EU speech! I found it very amusing and a really dry, humorous comment. First time I've felt a positive emotion connected with Corbyn.

The Grauniad's take:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/14/jeremy-corbyns-eu-speech-what-he-said-and-what-he-meant

david_herdson

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

1. If Dave has a replacement, then Corbyn is not Next PM.
2. *How* does a PM 'go to the country' these days?

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not just the left.

Though I laid Jeremy Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 7.4 a few days ago. I have a very nice book in that market having laid Ed Miliband at very short prices.

When was that? I thought you were backing Ed!

david_herdson

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

I don't think Foot did change the leadership election rules, did he? Foot was elected in Nov 1980 and the special conference that changed the rules was in Jan 1981 - the process was already underway before he became leader and the fact of his leadership didn't change the outcome of the conference.

However, I agree with you that whether or not it was Foot's intention, those sort of changes are certainly Corbyn's intention (as indeed they would have been in 1981).

Blue_rog

CarlottaVance said:

Blue_rog said:

BTW I hope someone picked up on Corbyn's opening statement in his pro-EU speech! I found it very amusing and a really dry, humorous comment. First time I've felt a positive emotion connected with Corbyn.

The Grauniad's take:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/14/jeremy-corbyns-eu-speech-what-he-said-and-what-he-meant

I meant this opening statement

"Well, put it like this. Here’s how the Labour leader chose to begin today’s speech, which took place at a certain building in London.

“I’m delighted to be here in Senate House,” he said. “Of course, this is where George Orwell based his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four. This building was the Ministry of Truth.” He paused. Then, quietly, with an uncharacteristic hint of mischief: “Let us see.”

runnymede

Moses_ said:

SouthamObserver said:

The idea of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is so ludicrous that it is hard to compute. Surely Corbyn himself knows it is not a job he is suited for or capable of doing. If it ever happened - which it won't, of course - I'd expect him to stand down within weeks of being appointed.

On another note I have spent the week in Taiwan and now Korea at two conferences we have been running. Everyone knows that the EU referendum is taking place in the UK, no-one believes when I say that Leave is very possibly, even probably, going to win. For the Asian companies that have been attending the events - and use your imagination to work out who they are - Europe is very much a single market.

I don't think many people have a problem with a single market I am sure I don't and never did even back in the days where it developed from Benelux. I think the problems really arise with the political aspect of this and the mission creep of the faceless, unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats and non entities at the top table in Brussels and their constant interference in what should be only a national consideration.

I can vote out the PM of this country along with others yet in reality, powerless to vote out someone at the Brussels top table. ( yes I know we have Mp's that we can vote for that can supposedly do that but it's a tiny amount compared to the total MEPs involved) . Most recently Brown slipped through the back door and signed Lisbon when he thought no one was looking. This sealed the deal in many political dimensions not least regarding treaty changes and further development of the political agenda by Brussels.

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

We will also continue massive financial contributions perhaps increased as remaining rebates are clawed / demanded back. Quite simply we contribute to our own downfall and in equal measure will be subsequently ignored as we are drawn in further. History will not treat us kindly as a result and neither will the EU.

very good

NickPalmer

I don't think it's obvious that Cameron hanging on (which I see as a <5% chance since he's said he wants to go and seemingly nobody prominent is pressing him to stay) will benefit Labour. The ideal for us is for Cameron to be replaced by someone who is electorate come to (or already) dislike. The chance of that, given the current field, seems a good deal higher than 20%.

A few bits from the Berlin press may be of interest:
- More on the TV satirist and Erdogan: contrary to what I thought, Merkel would need to approve a prosecution under the "insult to foreign leaders and institutions" law. She hasn't decided yet. A poll shows that 82% of Germans would oppose prosecution, though only half actually approve of the satire (which portrayed Erdogan as an idiot who has sex with sheep). Erdogan's lawyer says he will pursue a civil libel case if the public prosecution fails.

- Interesting survey of 3500 young Arabs from all the North African and Middle East countries except Syria (impractical to survey). Only 13% could imagine supporting ISIS "even if it became less violent". Compared to an earlier survey in 2012, only 36% feel that the Arab Spring has worked out well (in 2012 72% felt positive about it). 53% feel the top priority should now be stability and standards of living, 25% feel the priority should be more democracy. Over half feel that religion plays an excessive role in politics and everyday life. 52% get news from social media, only 7% read a paper. Asked where they're ideally like to live, 22% say the United Arab Emirates (the most prosperous state), 12% the USA, 11% Germany, then Saudi and France. Britain didn't make the top list.

- The German government has agreed to require migrants who wish to settle to accept a home in a place decided by the authorities, in order to prevent ghetto development. "Making as much effort as possible" to integrate will greatly increase your chance of permanent leave to remain, including learning the language, stopping only just short of making it a requirement. On the other hand, they explicitly ruled out introducing numerical limits on integration.

Casino_Royale

On topic, good article TP, I get your second and third points on Corbyn but not your first.

If Cameron stepped down well before the next election, and someone like Osborne took over (don't laugh, a previous article of yours suggested backing him at odds on!) then Corbyn might also have a small chance.

It depends how unpopular and incompetent the new Tory leader is perceived to be, plus events.

That said, I think 25/1 for Corbyn is about right. And, no, I'm not backing him even at that.

david_herdson

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

But *political* betting is a niche market and one that traditional punters don't often go near. Football, horses, other sports, reality/contest TV and the like, yes; politics, maybe not.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not just the left.

Though I laid Jeremy Corbyn as next Prime Minister at 7.4 a few days ago. I have a very nice book in that market having laid Ed Miliband at very short prices.

When was that? I thought you were backing Ed!

I did. But there was a time when Betfair and the conventional bookies allowed for some profitable arbing (or semi-arbing, as I did it in practice). So I had a big red on Ed Miliband on Betfair.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

The idea of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is so ludicrous that it is hard to compute. Surely Corbyn himself knows it is not a job he is suited for or capable of doing. If it ever happened - which it won't, of course - I'd expect him to stand down within weeks of being appointed.

On another note I have spent the week in Taiwan and now Korea at two conferences we have been running. Everyone knows that the EU referendum is taking place in the UK, no-one believes when I say that Leave is very possibly, even probably, going to win. For the Asian companies that have been attending the events - and use your imagination to work out who they are - Europe is very much a single market.

Bit of a tautology though, isn't it?

Europe is a single market because Europe is a single market.

If the European intergovernmental institutional framework changed, so would their marketing and trade strategy to suit. Just as for any other independent major economy nation.

It might be a bit of a mild headache for them, though. Change means a bit of work.

david_herdson

ThreeQuidder said:

blackburn63 said:

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Is he allowed to do that under a fixed parliament?

Not unilaterally, but a one line Bill to amend the FTPA would do the job and be difficult for the Opposition to reject.

It'd be quite easy to reject. The principle behind the FTPA was to prevent a government abusing its power to fix the time of an election to a moment of its advantage. That's a reasonably sound principle. No other election in Britain can be called at the governing authority's discretion. The Lords could easily reject the clause (or Bill, if that's all it contained), on the basis that it's undemocratic. Sure, the Commons could push it through under the Parliament Act but is it worth the hassle?

There's also the matter that it'd have to introduce the legislation at least a year before it wanted to go to the country, so priorities may well not align. If it really wanted to make that change, this last year would have been the time to do it.

Scott_P

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

At the risk of setting the Remain hares running, Vote Leave has attempted a summary to answer the big question: What happens if we Vote Leave?

I have a TERRIBLE sense of Deja Vu...

"WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE VOTE LEAVE FOR INDEPENDENCE?

We end the supremacy of EU law and the European Court Westminster. We will be able to kick out those who make our laws.

Europe Great Britain yes, EU UK no. We have a new UK-EU Scotland rUK Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone an Arc of Prosperity from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. We will take back the power to negotiate our own trade deals.

We spend our money on our priorities. Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels Westminster, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and schools.

We take back control of migration policy, including the 1951 UN Convention on refugees, so we have a fairer and more humane policy, and we decide who comes into our country, on what terms, and who is removed.

We will regain our seat on international bodies where Brussels Westminster represents us, and use our greater international influence to push for greater international cooperation.

We will build a new European institutional architecture currency Union that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro to use Sterling, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way.

We will negotiate a new UK-EU Treaty and end the legal supremacy of EU law and the European Court get everything we demand from all negotiations before the 2020 election March 2016.

We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 - we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests. International Law and precedent are irrelevant..."

Very interesting. I look forward to hearing more. I have heard it all before.

It was bollocks last time. It's no more realistic this time.

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, good article TP, I get your second and third points on Corbyn but not your first.

If Cameron stepped down well before the next election, and someone like Osborne took over (don't laugh, a previous article of yours suggested backing him at odds on!) then Corbyn might also have a small chance.

It depends how unpopular and incompetent the new Tory leader is perceived to be, plus events.

That said, I think 25/1 for Corbyn is about right. And, no, I'm not backing him even at that.

The first point is the most technical and biggest one. Jeremy Corbyn could win in 2020 there is an 80% chance this market doesn't pay out. 80% is probably too skinny.

ThreeQuidder

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, good article TP, I get your second and third points on Corbyn but not your first.

If Cameron stepped down well before the next election, and someone like Osborne took over (don't laugh, a previous article of yours suggested backing him at odds on!) then Corbyn might also have a small chance.

Yes, but then Osborne is the PM after Cameron.

david_herdson

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, good article TP, I get your second and third points on Corbyn but not your first.

If Cameron stepped down well before the next election, and someone like Osborne took over (don't laugh, a previous article of yours suggested backing him at odds on!) then Corbyn might also have a small chance.

He wouldn't have any chance - small or otherwise - of becoming 'Next PM' after Cameron though!

Scott_P

And the echoes continue

Moses_ said:

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

As soon as we vote remain Yes, and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels Westminster.

Still waiting...

Casino_Royale

@ScottP

I don't expect sell-outs like you, who gleefully mock our nation and ability to govern ourselves, to understand.

You're incapable of doing anything more than copying and pasting other people's tweets, so it's no wonder.

Innocent_Abroad

david_herdson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

I don't think Foot did change the leadership election rules, did he? Foot was elected in Nov 1980 and the special conference that changed the rules was in Jan 1981 - the process was already underway before he became leader and the fact of his leadership didn't change the outcome of the conference.

However, I agree with you that whether or not it was Foot's intention, those sort of changes are certainly Corbyn's intention (as indeed they would have been in 1981).

Thanks, David. I can hardly remember those days - even though I was a Labour councillor at the time

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, good article TP, I get your second and third points on Corbyn but not your first.

If Cameron stepped down well before the next election, and someone like Osborne took over (don't laugh, a previous article of yours suggested backing him at odds on!) then Corbyn might also have a small chance.

He wouldn't have any chance - small or otherwise - of becoming 'Next PM' after Cameron though!

Ah, good point. Durh!

I need my morning coffee :-)

AlastairMeeks

An interesting question is whether it is right to lay Jeremy Corbyn at 7.4 from scratch. For that you need to plot the probabilities of when David Cameron will step down.

I think it would be barely worth it, given the return you could get on your money elsewhere.

Blue_rog

Scott_P said:

And the echoes continue

Moses_ said:

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

As soon as we vote remain Yes, and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels Westminster.

Still waiting...

The EU doesn't have a 300 year history of cooperation and union with the UK

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

But *political* betting is a niche market and one that traditional punters don't often go near. Football, horses, other sports, reality/contest TV and the like, yes; politics, maybe not.

The only time I lose serious money is on the horses in the Grand National. I was in line for a big payout on the Last Samurai until the last 20 seconds where Everything Went Wrong.

I never learn my lesson.

NickPalmer

Khan on the niqab, veils, pressure on women and terrorism:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/14/sadiq-khan-question-to-be-asked-about-hijabs-veils-london

david_herdson

Based on the evidence of this thread, I wonder if there's not a simpler explanation to TP's conundrum: that a lot of punters simply don't understand the market they're betting on and are confusing 'Next PM' with 'PM after the Next GE'?

david_herdson

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

Disagree with the opening statement, betting shops don't tend to be full of tories. The WWC are the traditional punters, gambling is a way of life.

But *political* betting is a niche market and one that traditional punters don't often go near. Football, horses, other sports, reality/contest TV and the like, yes; politics, maybe not.

The only time I lose serious money is on the horses in the Grand National. I was in line for a big payout on the Last Samurai until the last 20 seconds where Everything Went Wrong.

I never learn my lesson.

I sympathise. I stopped betting on football because too much of my profits on politics went back to the bookies that way.

Unfortunately, that also means that my tip on Leicester (here, around last Christmas) at 20/1 when they were already top of the table, wasn't followed through with a bet on my part.

Scott_P

Casino_Royale said:

@ScottP

I don't expect sell-outs like you, who gleefully mock our nation and ability to govern ourselves, to understand.

To whom did I sell what, and how much did I get for it?

I have been entirely consistent.

The arguments put forward by the Scottish separatists were completely fatuous, and have proven to be so.

The same arguments put forward by the Kipper separatists are equally bogus.

And anyone who claims we don't govern ourselves today deserves all the mockery I can muster.

SquareRoot

I am sure the stats boys and girls will know the real odds, but I was told a long time ago that the great races over fences, most especially the Grand National, are races that punters should avoid like the plague. A race such as the Grand National is a bookies dream

Plato_Says

Friend of mine used to bring copies of their in-house paper to work.

CarlottaVance said:

Plato_Says said:

FPT @CarlottaVance, that's a brilliant piss take

I expect the famous injunction lawyers really don't like being laughed at!

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

And the echoes continue

Moses_ said:

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

As soon as we vote remain Yes, and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels Westminster.

Still waiting...

In fairness none of the LEAVErs - even the more excitable ones - have threatened to emigrate if the "losers" don't vote for rupture......of course the Nats who did threaten to emigrate are still in Scotland tending their turnips

Pulpstar

SquareRoot said:

I am sure the stats boys and girls will know the real odds, but I was told a long time ago that the great races over fences, most especially the Grand National, are races that punters should avoid like the plague. A race such as the Grand National is a bookies dream

It's the hardest race to beat.

david_herdson

SquareRoot said:

I am sure the stats boys and girls will know the real odds, but I was told a long time ago that the great races over fences, most especially the Grand National, are races that punters should avoid like the plague. A race such as the Grand National is a bookies dream

It is quite possible for an event to consistently be a bookie's dream and also simultaneously be a serious punter's dream. The factor in common is taking money off ignorant mug punters.

In fact, the two positions are almost identical - particularly these days with betting exchanges where punters can lay prices as well as back them.

Blue_rog

SquareRoot said:

I am sure the stats boys and girls will know the real odds, but I was told a long time ago that the great races over fences, most especially the Grand National, are races that punters should avoid like the plague. A race such as the Grand National is a bookies dream

We have a family party on Grand National day. We all have a load of bets - usually £1 e/w even the grandkids then we generally have a great time with the race being the final cherry on the cake. Noone cares who wins.

Innocent_Abroad

NickPalmer said:

Khan on the niqab, veils, pressure on women and terrorism:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/14/sadiq-khan-question-to-be-asked-about-hijabs-veils-london

I asked the Labour canvasser if SK said the same thing in mosques as he did to the rest of us. She said "yes" a little too quickly for my liking - Labour is based on the belief that economics determines politics. It's probably New Labour's greatest "achievement" to overturn that source of political cleavage in favour of cleavage based on identity. When SK denounces that he can have my (second) vote. In that interview he doesn't quite go that far.

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

@ScottP

I don't expect sell-outs like you, who gleefully mock our nation and ability to govern ourselves, to understand.

To whom did I sell what, and how much did I get for it?

I have been entirely consistent.

The arguments put forward by the Scottish separatists were completely fatuous, and have proven to be so.

The same arguments put forward by the Kipper separatists are equally bogus.

And anyone who claims we don't govern ourselves today deserves all the mockery I can muster.

And yet again you don't provide any evidence or reason, just blanket assertions and insults. It's like engaging with a toddler on the merits of his Daddy.

You truly are an idiot: an ignorant, but playful, serf, incapable of thinking for himself.

I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.

I have better things to do.

Pulpstar

Re: Grand National.

That said there are some things you can do to improve your odds. Bet365 offer of half stakes back is the best, bets must be placed before midday though.
Victor's 6 places are good.
Always make sure your bookie pays at least 5 places.
Don't be afraid of big prices - especially when the going is heavy like it was this year.
DO however be afraid of big weights in heavy going (I was amazed how many backed "Many Clouds" in the conditions) - similiarly Silvianaco Conti was utterly done by the going and the weight he carried.

I made a small loss this year, if I'd been at a PC before midday with 365's half stakes back it would have been a small profit.

@Casino_Royale "The Last Samurai" was a good bet, ran close !

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

- Interesting survey of 3500 young Arabs from all the North African and Middle East countries except Syria (impractical to survey). Only 13% could imagine supporting ISIS "even if it became less violent". Compared to an earlier survey in 2012, only 36% feel that the Arab Spring has worked out well (in 2012 72% felt positive about it). 53% feel the top priority should now be stability and standards of living, 25% feel the priority should be more democracy. Over half feel that religion plays an excessive role in politics and everyday life. 52% get news from social media, only 7% read a paper. Asked where they're ideally like to live, 22% say the United Arab Emirates (the most prosperous state), 12% the USA, 11% Germany, then Saudi and France. Britain didn't make the top list.
.

Interesting. Do you have a source (preferably in English)?

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Based on the evidence of this thread, I wonder if there's not a simpler explanation to TP's conundrum: that a lot of punters simply don't understand the market they're betting on and are confusing 'Next PM' with 'PM after the Next GE'?

Yeah, I know I've snookered myself on this downthread but when I bet on that market I do actually *know* that it's about the next PM and bet accordingly.

For example, I haven't backed a single non-Tory yet because I'm convinced the next PM will be in this parliament and therefore a Tory. Even if Cameron stays all the way, if Corbyn is still there, I expect the PM post GE2020 to still be a Tory.

I just didn't read TP's article properly.

Wanderer

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

The party can deselect MPs but it can't recall them. Ie, it can't unseat them before the next election. Well, unless it has them assassinated.

Plato_Says

Foreign aid spending will outstrip the amount given to councils to collect bins, install street lights and run local services for the first time next year, official government estimates show.

Forecasts buried in the Treasury’s Budget book reveal that spending on international development will hit £9.3bn in 2017/18 – overtaking local government spending of £8.2bn that year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/14/foreign-aid-spending-to-overtake-council-funding-next-year/

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Miss Plato, foreign aid spending remains an easy hit (via a cutting it policy) for whichever party decides it wants votes more than virtue-signalling.

Wanderer

On topic, I don't anyone can disagree that Sanders and Corbyn are way too short, Corbyn hilariously so. In the latter case I think there are simply punters who don't get that Cameron is unlikely to be Prime Minister at the next election. Which is an encouraging thought.

Morris_Dancer

F1: P2 is ongoing.

I've got another blog to put together in the meantime (it's an interview about making an audiobook, for those interested), but I will write and post the pre-qualifying piece today.

Just seen that there have been numerous failures due to left rear wheels/suspension. May be a kerb issue.

Innocent_Abroad

Wanderer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

The party can deselect MPs but it can't recall them. Ie, it can't unseat them before the next election. Well, unless it has them assassinated.

It can expel them, though.

Wanderer

Innocent_Abroad said:

Wanderer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

The party can deselect MPs but it can't recall them. Ie, it can't unseat them before the next election. Well, unless it has them assassinated.

It can expel them, though.

Yes, but they would still be MPs. I can't imagine they'd be in any mood to resign.

Luckyguy1983

Blue_rog said:

Scott_P said:

And the echoes continue

Moses_ said:

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

As soon as we vote remain Yes, and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels Westminster.

Still waiting...

The EU doesn't have a 300 year history of cooperation and union with the UK

Don't get why people reply to Scott P. Just a standard issue troll.

JackW

FPT

Thanks to Nick Palmer for a much welcome update on PB's hugely missed and highly acclaimed cross dresser and my Deputy TOTY - Peter the Punter.

PtP remains very much alive and (hick) kicking - he was by repute a favourite show girl at the Gaiety Theatre during the war. Angela Rippon is a fan apparently.

PBers will recall that that PtP and I were the main protagonists in the closest election the UK has seen in centuries with JackW coming up on the rails and crushing Peter .... by one vote ..

See you soon old friend ..

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

And the echoes continue

Moses_ said:

As soon as we vote remain and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels. We will be challenged to sign up for everything and the Euro will be back on the table too I will be surprised if Schengen isn't as well. Our political masters in Brussels of course will shout at any politician not doing so as going against the democratic will of the people. It will be quite a sight to see Brussels championing democracy, a system of which they know little and for which they have an even lesser regard.

As soon as we vote remain Yes, and I am fairly sure now this will be the outcome then brace yourselves from the onslaught that will come from Brussels Westminster.

Still waiting...

Not in this world obviously

Pulpstar

I see Obama has his script of "Paradise Lost" ready for today's locust warning.

dr_spyn

Carter Ruck have a Twitter a/c., in mint condition. Perhaps set up to stop parodies of their use of scandalum magnum writs appearing.

AlastairMeeks

To return to Tissue Price's theme, other strange odds include John Kasich at 13.5 for the Republican nomination on Betfair. To get it, he needs:

1) Donald Trump to fall short of a majority of delegates; and
2) Either a) Ted Cruz to retire from the race; or
b) the delegates, once released, to flock to him instead of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz (such evidence as we have suggests that Ted Cruz is in fact well-placed if it gets this far)

Oh, and he needs the nomination rules changed.

It must be something like a 50/1 shot now that it's not going to be either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, and John Kasich doesn't make up all that 50/1 shot either.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, missed that update. Will Mr. Punter be returning?

JackW

Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

Half An Hour

OldKingCole

So last night’s results were I LD hold, 1 LD gain and 1 Con hold. Not a good night for UKIP, either, although looks a bit better because they fielded a candidate somewhere they didn’t last time.

rottenborough

Morning all,

Most excellent article from Tissue Price. A pure, unadulterated betting thread header. Top hole!

Casino_Royale

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, missed that update. Will Mr. Punter be returning?

So did I.

What's the news?

I miss Peter.

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, missed that update. Will Mr. Punter be returning?

PtP is lurking intermittently (He used to do that in the undergrowth at Stoke Poges Nurses Quarters but got off with a warning) and hopes to return in due course .... to PB I mean ....

Theuniondivvie

Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats.
The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, are we sure PtP doesn't stand for Peeping Tom Punter?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/720878473812705280

Plato_Says

There's a rather funny PPI parody of the Remain phone banking pix on Twitter

Pulpstar said:

I see Obama has his script of "Paradise Lost" ready for today's locust warning.

Scott_P

Casino_Royale said:

I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.

I have better things to do.

ROFL

I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...

I rest my case

Moses_

Dopey bird on sky just said if we BREXIT then Europeans won't have the right to work here.

Jerez... where do they find these people?

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.

I have better things to do.

ROFL

I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...

I rest my case

amazing.

so far you haven't actually had a case.

asjohnstone

ThreeQuidder said:

blackburn63 said:

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

Is he allowed to do that under a fixed parliament?

Not unilaterally, but a one line Bill to amend the FTPA would do the job and be difficult for the Opposition to reject.

of course Labour would back it, to not do so would be to chicken out of an election. Dreadful optics.

CarlottaVance

Theuniondivvie said:

Darling on R4 reprising his greatest hits: unknown, leap in the dark, risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Bit early in the morning for repeats.
The whiny, irrascible tone he developed during the Indy campaign seems to have become a fixture.

What are you complaining about?

It worked last time.

Though in fairness some of the separatist argument this time has a greater foundation in reality....

runnymede

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.

I have better things to do.

ROFL

I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...

I rest my case

I'd stick to cut and paste if I were you. Analysis is not your strong point.

asjohnstone

david_herdson said:

asjohnstone said:

Bernie, I agree with.

Corbyn at 13.5% is a smudge high, but I disagree on the 3 events required. They also presume the next election is a 2020. It may not be.

If the referendum is lost, may Dave or his replacement decide to go to the country and seek a new mandate?

1. If Dave has a replacement, then Corbyn is not Next PM.
2. *How* does a PM 'go to the country' these days?

Good point, well made.

Morris_Dancer

It's true, Mr. Moses. Nobody from the UK works in the US or Australia.

SquareRoot

runnymede said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'll confine myself from now on to talking to Remainers with a brain, like Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and Southam Observer, rather than you.

I have better things to do.

ROFL

I put forward a simple proposition, that all the Kipper separatist arguments were tested (and found wanting) by the Zoomers, and your best effort at refuting this is to run away...

I rest my case

I'd stick to cut and paste if I were you. Analysis is not your strong point.

Nor is civility yours, Its quite clear that leave are the new "nasty party".

rcs1000

Moses_ said:

Dopey bird on sky just said if we BREXIT then Europeans won't have the right to work here.

Jerez... where do they find these people?

From a straight technical perspective, if we simply repealed the European Communities Act, which would be the quickest way to leave the EU, then EEA workers would not have the right to work in the UK.

However, back in the real world, that's probably not going to happen.

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, are we sure PtP doesn't stand for Peeping Tom Punter?

No .... he's a "Peter" .... Peter the Peeper ?!?!? ....

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Wanderer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

The party can deselect MPs but it can't recall them. Ie, it can't unseat them before the next election. Well, unless it has them assassinated.

Please don't give Osborne any ideas.

Casino_Royale

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Wanderer said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

The other factor that TP leaves out is the extent to which punters' own politics influence betting. Aren't right-wingers far more likely to bet than lefties?

I agree with TP on JC: I think his goal is to emulate Michael Foot in changing the way the Party elects its leaders (and probably also to make recall of sitting MPs by the Party faithful much, much easier).

The party can deselect MPs but it can't recall them. Ie, it can't unseat them before the next election. Well, unless it has them assassinated.

Please don't give Osborne any ideas.

Osborne is so weak right now he needs permission to take a piss.

I'm not worried.

Plato_Says

I wondered if that was my imagination, clearly not.

Moses_ said:

Dopey bird on sky just said if we BREXIT then Europeans won't have the right to work here.

Jerez... where do they find these people?

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :

Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?

Remain 55% (+1) .. Leave 45% (-1)

Turnout Projection 62% (NC)

Changes from 12th April.

......................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union