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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m not tempted by the 3/1 bet that Cameron will be out this year
As a reaction to Cameron’s dramatic admission on his family offshore investments last night in the interview with Robert Peston several bookies starting offering odds on him failing to survive the year as prime minister. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are making this a 3/1 chance.
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Good article, I agree.
The most interesting part of the system for the political geek is that although the presidential candidate nominates a running mate, they are not a ticket, they are elected independently, so often voters will select a president and vice-president from different parties as is the case in the outgoing administration. The system for electing the half of the senator that is up for re-election this year is interesting as well, using the plurality-at-large system where each party has to put up 12 candidates, either on their own, by doing a deal with other parties, each voter makes a list of their (up to 12) of their preferred candidates from all the candidates available, the 12 candidates getting the most votes across the country are elected.
So this is damaging for his mishandling of a fairly straightforward issue, and the damage is personal as it was a very personal issue. But that said, on its own, hardly a fatal blow.
“In all of this I’ve never hidden the fact that I’m a very lucky person who had wealthy parents, who gave me a great upbringing, who paid for me to go to an amazing school. I have never tried to pretend to be anything I am not. But I was keen in 2010 to sell everything – shares, all the rest of it – so I can be very transparent. I don’t own any part of any company or any investment trust or anything else like that.”
Is already priced in to Cameron - despite:
The Labour MP John Mann, a member of the Treasury select committee, said the prime minister should resign, claiming that Cameron had “covered up and misled”.
There is no evidence that Cameron's father acted illegally, and it appears Cameron has acted appropriately - despite the Guardian's best efforts I still haven't seen anything 'new' that we didn't know about already. Yes, he (legally) held funds offshore, but he sold them - and paid income tax on the dividends before entering Downing Street......
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/tax/11189430/Tony-Benns-inheritance-tax-dodge-how-it-works-and-how-you-can-use-it-too.html
Trump 37 .. Cruz 31 .. Kasich 23
Clinton 46 .. Sanders 47
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/a-sanders-surge-in-polling-if-not-delegates/477198/
National - McClatchy/Marist
Clinton 50 .. Trump 41
Clinton 47 .. Cruz 47
Clinton 48 .. Kasich 51
Sanders 57 .. Trump 37
Sanders 53 .. Cruz 41
Sanders 52 .. Kasich 41
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us160329/MCC/General Election/McClatchy_Marist Poll_General Election__Complete Survey
I don't know what the disclosure levels are for a single investment in a company / mutual fund are for the commons but it is possible that it was below those thresholds
Who else has been curiously quiet these past few days........
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/12144745/Alex-Salmonds-hypocrisy-of-using-firm-to-save-tax.html
I think Osborne is a much better bet. He might be moved even if Remain wins.
7,777 seconds
Let's be honest, his demise is nothing to do with events, its to do with judgement, time and again he exhibits poor judgement, his problems are entirely of his own making. He'll stagger on for a while, desperate to regain ground and credibility but regardless of the referendum outcome he's spectacularly shot himself in the foot.
Back in May as the pb tories were sneering and jeering 1 or 2 of us warned against hubris, him and Osborne are soiled goods.
Calls for Cameron's resignation are ludicrous.
I don't think this story is going anywhere unless any more comes out. I base this judgement on the 6:30 news on Magic (Mrs Quidder listens at breakfast) which started with "Labour say David Cameron may have to resign". Of course they do, that's what oppositions always do.
No mention of the petition - I haven't signed; I never do. Well, I once signed a change.org petition to shut down change.org petitions. I was amused that on the day it came out I (like a few other PBers) got a "the EU referendum: the facts" leaflet. Being a cynic, I immediately turned to the back page to read the imprint to see who put it out: Vote Leave.
you must live in a bubble devoid of news
Another day, another day spent by Leave arguing about process. As someone on QT asked last night, if Leave side has so many millionaires and city supporters why don't they just fund their own household leaflet?
It seems eurosceptic MPs are now threatening to block all legislation and use the 12 seat majority as a battering ram against Dave. Early GE after the referendum?
Most people didn't expect him to be squeaky clean given he's a politician, and now the story's been around long enough to stick.
Another unforced error.
Vanilla issue? Or are we all just not feeling it today?
UK: Mid Ulster 21
England, Scotland, Wales: Na h-Eileanan an Iar 23
UK Mainland: Glasgow East 30
England: Hackney North 46
England outside London: Birmingham Ladywood 59
Wales: Rhondda 71
Most:
UK: Rochester and Strood 387
Wales: Vale of Glamorgan: 172
Scotland: Morray 114
N Ireland: East Antrim 110
As to the the long term damage to Cameron. Zero. Someone either appears to be on the take or they don't. Cameron clearly doesn't and for such a small amount people will use their judgement.
He had a sharp father. I bet he wishes he didn't but those are the cards he was dealt.
1. Luck runs out for everyone, sooner for politicians, so that's an unsafe betting mantra. If you're playing the tables as opposed to players quitting when you're ahead is a key part of successful play.
2. Cameron has never really faced a crisis as PM. Brown shot himself in the foot eventually, as was inevitable. Many of the crises have been on a tittle-tattle scale. This one is a bit different and comes at a very awkward time for him when the country is supposed to be following him into Europe on the basis of 'Trust Me Dave.'
Cameron's safest security is also now his weakest: the lack of a viable Labour opposition. Were Labour rampant I don't think the Tories would gun for Cameron. As it is, he's wounded and possibly fatally.
It's the horse story, but far less entertaining.
Yeh, but, yeh but, luck has a habit of running out, no matter how well one has done in the past. The backs to the wall meme is starting to wear thin, as the bricks themselves, crumble.
Cameron has had two strikes against him this week:
1. The £9m leaflet in support of Remain, and
2. The ongoing saga of his families Panamanian tax haven.
One more strike and even this teflon politico is out.
Caesar was lucky. Right up to the point where a small horde stabbed him to death.
That said, I agree Cameron is likelier to stay than go this year.
Almond & Earn (Perth & Kinross) result:
CON: 48.5% (+18.4)
SNP: 38.4% (-2.8)
LAB: 6.3% (-3.7)
LDEM: 4.5% (-2.1)
UKIP: 2.2% (+2.2)
Those signing the petition were never going to vote Remain anyway. Indeed, when the petition finally runs out of puff we'll have a fair idea of just how many monomaniac Leavers there are in the country: it's a handy informal census.
He's a rich tosser
Cameron was more-than-tolerated for as long as he seemed decent. This airing of his family fortune and tax evasions just makes him look a rich tosser in most people's eyes.
That'll be why #resigncameron is now no1 Twitter trend
44 minutes 44 seconds
Trump going to sweep the general
Though there does appear to be a revival in Tory prospects:
@britainelects March's voting intention averages for the Scottish Parliament put the Tories just three seats behind Labour: pic.twitter.com/Q0KWFDXQkn
Such Euroloons (and their supporters on here) are doing all they can to hurt the country and usher in a Labour, Corbynite government. They're worse than bastards.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/07/panama-papers-david-camerons-worst-week-as-prime-minister/?cid=sf23973430&sf23973430=1
Or something like that.
I think the Scottish referendum is meant to be an example, although I doubt that's the whole story there.
The interesting question is whether April will be the first month where arrivals are down year-over-year? So far, the trend has been down since the peak last summer, but it is unclear exactly why this is the case - is it the deal with Turkey? the weather? or the fact that there simply aren't as many people wanting (or being able to afford) the crossing?
Though Wensleydale or Cheshire may be good if planning a model of Avebury stone circle.
I wouldn't toch continental cheeses for construction, except overripe brie for use as cement.
They're loons who think the EU is more important than good governance. Well, if that's their vision of good governance then perhaps we'd be better off being fully run from Brussels ...
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/fluechtlingskrise-zahl-der-asylsuchenden-in-deutschland-drastisch-gesunken-14167190.html
Frau Merkel having the phrase STFU translated into German may also have helped.
And hence, by contrast, I disagree with Mike. I think 3/1 is quite good value. Cameron won't go because of the Pamana leaks but he could well go because of the EURef, and Panama has just raised the bar on what he needs to do there: it's likely that some MPs who might have given him the benefit of the doubt on a close result will have tipped the other way simply because he seems to have lost his touch a bit recently. Why die in the ditch for a change that's coming anyway and when there's no guarantee that Cameron would get his touch back after the vote?
3-1 is a fair price until he shows some spark of leadership.
Never mind Alistair, you can buy me a drink tonight and forget such gloomy thoughts.
I see Corbynite Labour as being a real threat to the economic and social fabric of this country. I'm not a Conservative, but have been fairly anti-Labour for ten or so years now. Corbyn's only made that worse.
If you had a choice, would you prefer a Corbynite government for twenty years outside the EU, or a Conservative government inside the EU for the same period? Which would do most harm to the country in your eyes?
Although it's possible Labour would do everything it could to get back into the EU.
Remainiacs are simply enjoying using it as a stick to beat Leavers with.
Osborne's performance since the GE has been nothing short of shambolic. You can shift the blame on to the backbenchers all you like but ultimately it is up to the government to get them onside. I'd argue that the conflicts that have arisen between the government and the backbenchers have had little to do with Europe and more to do with the fact that new Tories that have come in since 2010 are too scared of upsetting people.
- probably in areas of the economy that get ignored - construction manufacturing etc
- have been bearing the brunt of globalisation
- see immigration as a threat on a variety of levels - housing, schools, community, culture
- have stagnating wages and prospects
They see in return a political class which
- ignores their difficulties and tells just to suck it up
- which has got us into the current mess and been rewarded for failure
- which gets richer on the strength of their friends and establishment contacts
- prioritises external groups concerns over their own voters
- compounds the above by studiously not listening
At some point somehwere this group will start toget real and meaningful representation in Parliament - because it has to if nothing else. If the "bastards" peeling off starts this process then we could be in for a couplke of interesting years.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762