Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest from the key political betting markets

124»

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    Cruz is going to get a YUUUUUUGE win in CD-5.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Well I was right about my suspicions of Trump being a bit higher than the 35% the H.Post gave.
    But Cruz still wins.

    Trump performed like the other neighboring states but Cruz got all the rest of the vote, there was zero splitting of the anti-Trump vote.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest Betfair odds, next POTUS:

    Trump 8.8 / 9.0
    Sanders 9.6 / 10.5

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Madness.
    Not Madness at all, all GOP candidates have an almost 0% chance of being elected President.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest Betfair odds, next POTUS:

    Trump 8.8 / 9.0
    Sanders 9.6 / 10.5

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Madness.
    Not Madness at all, all GOP candidates have an almost 0% chance of being elected President.
    Really?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest Betfair odds, next POTUS:

    Trump 8.8 / 9.0
    Sanders 9.6 / 10.5

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

    Madness.
    Not Madness at all, all GOP candidates have an almost 0% chance of being elected President.
    Really?
    Indeed.

    Who can beat Hillary with the current state of the Republican party ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    Exit polls shows virtually no gender gap with Republicans. Big advantage for Hillary with Democrat women as usual.

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wi/Rep
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wi/Dem
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    First Results, with 2% in.

    Cruz 53
    Trump 31

    Trump in the lead on the Illinois border, gets crushed in Waukesha county 59-23.
    Milwaukee really hates Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    edited April 2016
    OK Prediction:

    Sanders 48 Clinton 38
    Cruz 39 Trump 3
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    With those margins so far Cruz wins CD-1,4, 5, 6 and 8.
    There go Trump's hopes of winning CD-1,4 and 8.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    With those margins so far Cruz wins CD-1,4, 5, 6 and 8.
    There go Trump's hopes of winning CD-1,4 and 8.

    Isn't it winner take all in Wisconsin?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    With those margins so far Cruz wins CD-1,4, 5, 6 and 8.
    There go Trump's hopes of winning CD-1,4 and 8.

    Isn't it winner take all in Wisconsin?
    The winner gets 12 delegates, the rest go by 3 per Congressional District.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Trump comes in with a lead in the Madison suburbs and in the far NW.
    That means that he will probably win CD-3 and 7.

    CD-2 is the only one that we don't know yet.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    And the TV networks call Wisconsin for Cruz and Sanders.

    The tradition of Hillary and Trump both losing the same states continues.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    CD-2 looks like it's going to go to Cruz.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,768
    Why hasn't RCP awarded more Democrat delegates for Washington state?

    Sanders understated?

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    Hillary ahead in Milwaukee.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Milwaukee is voting for Cruz like Utah.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    Kasich should really drop out. He's smoked.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So to sum it up.
    Terrible night for Trump, he still gets 6 delegates out of Wisconsin but that's way short of what he needed.

    His chances for the nomination get downgraded again.

    Trump now has only a 35% chance to get to 1237, plus 10% if he doesn't for a total of 41.5% for the nomination.

    Cruz has a 2/3 chance if Trump doesn't get to 1237 for a total of 43% for the nomination.

    Kasich has 10% chance if Trump doesn't get to 1237% for a total of 6.5%

    And Person X has 9%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    edited April 2016
    @TedCruz
    Four very different states: Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Wisconsin. Four victories.

    Four white, rural mid-western/western states :P ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    @TedCruz
    Four very different states: Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Wisconsin. Four victories.

    Four white, rural mid-western/western states :P ?

    Ah forget it, he will say he won from Alaska to Maine, don't forget Cruz is the epitome of a power-hungry deranged lawyer.

    At least he will never be President.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Am I the only one who finds Cruz really creepy when he gets all breathy at the end of his sentences?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    GOP Turnout Est 1.25 million
    Democrats 1.09 million.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    This is a MUCH better night for Cruz than Sanders looking at the numbers coming in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Am I the only one who finds Cruz really creepy when he gets all breathy at the end of his sentences?

    No.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    GOP Turnout Est 1.25 million
    Democrats 1.09 million.

    Mitt Romney got 1.41 million in the GE in 2012.
    More people voted in the GOP primary in Milwaukee than voted GOP in the GE of 2012, the entire city seems like it revolted against Trump.

    Trump is Hitler talk really brings the people out.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    This is a MUCH better night for Cruz than Sanders looking at the numbers coming in.

    There won't be a convention coming to nominate Sanders as the nominee, the Democratic primary process and the math really precludes that.

    For Cruz it's much easier, deny Trump 1237 and Cruz probably becomes the nominee even if voters disagree.

    The odds for Trump and Cruz to become the nominee are roughly the same at this point, and both have 0 chance of becoming president.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,768
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GOP Turnout Est 1.25 million
    Democrats 1.09 million.

    Mitt Romney got 1.41 million in the GE in 2012.
    More people voted in the GOP primary in Milwaukee than voted GOP in the GE of 2012, the entire city seems like it revolted against Trump.

    Trump is Hitler talk really brings the people out.
    Typo? 1.25m is less than 1.41m?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    MikeL said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GOP Turnout Est 1.25 million
    Democrats 1.09 million.

    Mitt Romney got 1.41 million in the GE in 2012.
    More people voted in the GOP primary in Milwaukee than voted GOP in the GE of 2012, the entire city seems like it revolted against Trump.

    Trump is Hitler talk really brings the people out.
    Typo? 1.25m is less than 1.41m?
    In the whole state.
    But in the city of Milwaukee more people voted in the GOP primary than voted GOP in the GE 4 years ago, we are talking about 80% turnout which is historically high for a normal election much less a primary.

    Every resident seems to have gotten out to vote against Trump.

    Take Waukesha county (Milwaukee suburbs), so far Cruz alone has got 63k votes and the count is still going on, Romney got 78k in the GE of 2012.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,768
    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GOP Turnout Est 1.25 million
    Democrats 1.09 million.

    Mitt Romney got 1.41 million in the GE in 2012.
    More people voted in the GOP primary in Milwaukee than voted GOP in the GE of 2012, the entire city seems like it revolted against Trump.

    Trump is Hitler talk really brings the people out.
    Typo? 1.25m is less than 1.41m?
    In the whole state.
    But in the city of Milwaukee more people voted in the GOP primary than voted GOP in the GE 4 years ago, we are talking about 80% turnout which is historically high for a normal election much less a primary.

    Every resident seems to have gotten out to vote against Trump.
    Ah OK - thanks!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    Cruz will enjoy tonight, but "New York values" will return to haunt him :D
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,768
    Sanders just said Scandinavia was a country.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Cruz will enjoy tonight, but "New York values" will return to haunt him :D

    He doesn't care about N.Y. he can become the nominee without it.

    Cruz only needs to win Indiana now to be the GOP nominee by my calculations.
    Trump needs to win Indiana plus everything else and by a margin to be the nominee.

    Both doable according to the polls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    55 - 45 is good for my model. 63+ was brown trousers time according to my model for Hillary.

    Sanders probably wins Wyoming 75-25 but it only has 14 delegates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,118
    MikeL said:

    Sanders just said Scandinavia was a country.

    Tonight's result is a great one for Hillary :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,114
    In Cruz vs Clinton, it's hard not to see a Clinton victory.

    Who'd thought it: a week ago we all taking about Cruz's (alleged) five affairs. And now he is practically favourite for the Republican nomination.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    rcs1000 said:

    In Cruz vs Clinton, it's hard not to see a Clinton victory.

    Who'd thought it: a week ago we all taking about Cruz's (alleged) five affairs. And now he is practically favourite for the Republican nomination.

    Yup, smaller margin than against Trump but maybe less chance of an upset.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,114

    rcs1000 said:

    In Cruz vs Clinton, it's hard not to see a Clinton victory.

    Who'd thought it: a week ago we all taking about Cruz's (alleged) five affairs. And now he is practically favourite for the Republican nomination.

    Yup, smaller margin than against Trump but maybe less chance of an upset.
    Agreed. Trump could win, because he had crossover appeal. He could have gotten working class Democrats from the rust belt and traditional Republicans. Of course, he might have crashed and burned, but he could have won.

    I simply don't see have Cruz achieves anything more than a cruising Clinton victory.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,114
    The next question is this: will Cruz being the nominee help or hinder the Repiblicans in Senate and Gubnatorial races this autumn?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,174
    rcs1000 said:

    The next question is this: will Cruz being the nominee help or hinder the Repiblicans in Senate and Gubnatorial races this autumn?

    Pretty sure you know the answer to that. Surely the question is whether the damage in the convention passing over Trump to pick Cruz is worth the benefit? If not, can anyone else pull off that equation?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,174
    rcs1000 said:

    In Cruz vs Clinton, it's hard not to see a Clinton victory.

    Who'd thought it: a week ago we all taking about Cruz's (alleged) five affairs. And now he is practically favourite for the Republican nomination.

    I doubt we've heard the last of that story. Or of Cruz's eligibility for the office.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Have the wheels finally come off the Trump bandwagon? Surely he will win NY?

    I am all green on the republicans, but best position is Cruz.

    Quite red on Hillary though. I laid her early on and still haven't recovered.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,114

    Have the wheels finally come off the Trump bandwagon? Surely he will win NY?

    I am all green on the republicans, but best position is Cruz.

    Quite red on Hillary though. I laid her early on and still haven't recovered.

    Laid her early on! A new Clinton scandal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,144
    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,174
    Pulpstar said:

    55 - 45 is good for my model. 63+ was brown trousers time according to my model for Hillary.

    Sanders probably wins Wyoming 75-25 but it only has 14 delegates.

    Wyoming ought to be peak Bernie. Hillary has a series of friendly primaries after that. Pretty sure he'll take it to the convention now though. He is still closing the gap on her in the national polls (the HuffPost average has it down to 7.4%). The race seems like running ahead of a steamroller. She shouldn't get caught because Bernie's too slow in the game but she has to keep going and paying him, rather than the Republicans, the attention.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,328
    edited April 2016
    OT

    "Only little people pay taxes" Leona Helmsley.

    It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.

    After the Panama revelations anyone with money in such a jurisdiction is now coming under scrutiny. After the Iceland PM the second casualty looks like being the new President of FIFA.

    A tiny tip of an extremely fetid iceberg

    Oh dear.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Emergency cover is normal in this strike.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Roger said:

    a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey)

    Then there's people who put money in the UK:

    The UK has been rated "more of a tax haven" than the Channel Islands, in a financial transparency report.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-34638877
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    OT

    "Only little people pay taxes" Leona Helmsley.

    It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.

    After the Panama revelations anyone with money in such a jurisdiction is now coming under scrutiny. After the Iceland PM the second casualty looks like being the new President of FIFA.

    A tiny tip of an extremely fetid iceberg

    Oh dear.

    Moving money around to avoid tax is fair tax planning.

    The problem that I have with the offshore havens is that the secrecy facilitates evasion as so easy to not declare profits on money invested.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Have the wheels finally come off the Trump bandwagon? Surely he will win NY?

    I am all green on the republicans, but best position is Cruz.

    Quite red on Hillary though. I laid her early on and still haven't recovered.

    Laid her early on! A new Clinton scandal.
    It seemed a good idea at the time!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,144

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Emergency cover is normal in this strike.
    I refer the dishonourable gentleman to my previous post.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Emergency cover is normal in this strike.
    I refer the dishonourable gentleman to my previous post.
    The Patients Association has now come out against imposition:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/junior-doctors-strike-patients-association-says-it-is-glad-to-see-contract-imposition-being-a6970411.html

    The chair of the BMA JDC on the latest dispute:

    https://youtu.be/ufxPynjGTb0
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,144
    edited April 2016

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Emergency cover is normal in this strike.
    I refer the dishonourable gentleman to my previous post.
    The Patients Association has now come out against imposition:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/junior-doctors-strike-patients-association-says-it-is-glad-to-see-contract-imposition-being-a6970411.html

    The chair of the BMA JDC on the latest dispute:

    (Snip)
    Again, I refer the dishonourable gentleman to my previous post.

    Patient care is obviously less important to you than politics. As we saw about your 'defence' over Burnham and Stafford, which was based on a repeated series of lies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,548
    For anyone curious about the absence of any American high ups in the selected leaks, the Panama papers leakers are a 'Soros funded soft power tax dodge' according to wikileaks. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-05/shots-fired-wikileaks-accuses-panama-papers-leaker-being-soros-funded-soft-power-tax
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Hunt completely blame free.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,144

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Hunt completely blame free.
    Are you saying the striking doctors and their association are completely blame free?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jeremy Hunt’s tactics in junior doctors’ dispute attacked by senior Tory
    Sarah Wollaston says health secretary misrepresented evidence to win support in pursuit of ‘unachievable’ seven-day NHS

    “Ministers are undermining their case and inflaming tensions by misquoting the evidence"
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Hunt completely blame free.
    Are you saying the striking doctors and their association are completely blame free?
    Are you saying Hunt is?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,144

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Hunt completely blame free.
    Are you saying the striking doctors and their association are completely blame free?
    Are you saying Hunt is?
    I see you cannot answer a simple question.

    My answer: no-one involved is 100% without blame. But doctors who strike deserve to lose a great deal of the affection and respect that the pubic give them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,445

    Remember everyone, if you need to fall ill do so in the next hour. After that, try to leave it for 48 hours. Just because many junior doctors are being tw@ts.

    Hunt completely blame free.
    Are you saying the striking doctors and their association are completely blame free?
    Are you saying Hunt is?
    I see you cannot answer a simple question.

    My answer: no-one involved is 100% without blame. But doctors who strike deserve to lose a great deal of the affection and respect that the pubic give them.
    For some years during my working life I was sporadically involved in negotiations with GP’s.They could be extremely intransigent, and frequently unscrupulous in the run-up to, and actually when, sitting across the table.
    I came to feel that some of the lawyers called upon to adjudicate in these situations were less than impressed.

    That doesn’t say that I don’t think the juniors have right on their side this time. I’m just saying that some at least of the professional “parents” of the current crop of juniors could be very, very difficult to negotiate with.
This discussion has been closed.