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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals
Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week.
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South West fight back?
The Opinium survey found that 28 per cent of adults in the capital see Conservative Mr Goldsmith as having that special something required to take over at City Hall, compared with 24 per cent for Labour’s Mr Khan, and 26 per cent saying neither of them.
However, 32 per cent believe that Tooting MP Mr Khan would work hardest for London, with Richmond Park MP Mr Goldsmith on 27 per cent. Just under a third said “don’t know” and 11 per cent said “none of them”.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/zac-goldsmith-has-x-factor-but-sadiq-khan-is-harder-working-says-poll-a3218271.html
"She only said what most people were thinking. Not many people would want a skin headed, tattooed English flag draped, brutal looking chap living next to them. There again looks like be deceiving, and he might have been lovely and sweet- and the kind of neighbour you could give your house keys to, and let him feed your cats. "
Tyson's right. Why did they sack the only Labour MP who had shown any taste or judgement during the whole campaign?
I thought Corbyn was a throwback to the 70s but didn't realise it was the 1870s.
As for these predictions, I'll believe a LD recovery, however minor, when I see it, and not a minute before.
Corbyn's supporters have played quite a good expectations game, aided by apocalyptic predictions from his opponents - losing that many might run anywhere from awful to great for all I know, but it's a managable outcome given how long I feel I've been hearing they could lose even more than that.
One of the things that stood out from the General Election book was had a little over 12,000 people voted differently last year, the Lib Dems would have had no MPs.
One of the reasons these locals elections are so important are that they are up for re-election on the same day as the 2020 general election, lots of councillors help with the ground game.
It presumably escaped your notice that his neighbour was probably a very similar sort of chap, with broadly similar tastes and didn't object to him at all.
Labour: The Party of the working man.
39 Conservatives
24 Labour
At the next GE.
Allowing 'Lt Col' Hyacinth Thornberry to hang around, whilst dropping her silky words of wisdom about the lower orders, was not going to help the party's cause.
The relevant measure is going to be the national shares of the vote, compared to 2011 (the comparative first year of the last electoral cycle). Labour came 1% behind the Tories that year. If Corbyn can match or possibly even exceed that (which I would've thought impossible a few weeks ago, but now seems a bit more of a prospect) then he'll have had a reasonable night.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/716601729589059584
European Right nominates Juncker, European Left nominates Schulz. European right "wins" the election so Juncker gets to be President of the Commission and Schulz because he lost gets to be President of the European Parliament.
Be like Ed Miliband being made President of Westminster Parliament because he lost the General Election.
Trump 40 .. Cruz 32 .. Kasich 17
Clinton 53 .. Sanders 39
Clinton 60 .. Trump 26
Clinton 57 .. Cruz 32
Clinton 56 .. Kasich 33
Sanders 63 .. Trump 24
Sanders 61 .. Cruz 26
Sanders 57 .. Kasich 28
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4114a2c6-213f-4447-8c7b-eb137d8c3312
1. The state of the Government and its image with voters.
2. The distraction of the referendum and the virtual strikes going on in some Associations over Cameron/Feldman/Osborne.
The party is just not putting the effort in to win and many are holding back to save themselves for the referendum campaign.
Equally, just to show how silly it is to use gains/losses as a guide when we're comparing 5-year general election cycles to 4-year local election cycles -- in 2019, Labour could make councillor gains even if they come something like 4% behind the Tories, simply because it would be better than the 7% deficit they suffered in 2015. But coming 4% behind in a mid-term year would clearly not be an indicator that they were on course for a general election win, no matter how many "gains" they'd made on paper.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
80 +2
84 -1
88 -1
93 +8
98 -4
02 +1
06 +13
11 -1
Can Labour improve on Billy Hague's 98 performance
Seriously if you want to win the referendum, you get out and meet the voters for the referendum a few weeks later.
I know Harrogate Tories are campaigning like it is a general election.
Edit - Ditto Calderdale and Kirklees Tories
NEV really doesn't look great for Labour though.
It will depend on where they stand, they may even hurt Labour more if the "immigration" factor creeps into the voters thinking. If Labour do emphasise how pro-immigration they are their wwc vote could stay at home.
The rest of the EU seems to be able to take advantage of the ECB's mega stimulus but the French are falling behind.
The problem is Con 32 Lab 33 in 2017 is a result the Tories would be very happy with.
(Personally though, since that Rallings & Thrasher's prediction in the header is mostly based on local by-elections held before the Tories' meltdown over the last few weeks, I think Labour might well do a bit better than that--at the risk of getting egg on my face!)
Activists typically have had enough by the time votes have been counted. They are very difficult to get back out to deliver or canvass a few weeks after a campaign - I know having worked with a 40+ delivery team. The thank you newsletters are usually better produced after at least a 2 week gap.
The Chief Minister of Guernsey has written to David Cameron offering to help the UK raise its own standards on beneficial ownership:
https://twitter.com/letocq/status/717309912532000768
JohnO shares the same opinion as me, but what do we know.
A beekeeper is asking Nicola Sturgeon about dementia in bees.
If the LDs can come out with the most seat gains and ahead of the Kippers on NEV then they really will have cause to smile.
On past performance, is it unusual for an opposition party to lose council seats on May 5th?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/01/the-task-for-corbyns-lab-on-may-2nd-match-previous-opposition-leaders-in-non-general-election-years/
Our presence in the EU is as a consumption nation and our wealth is draining out. Leaving won't be the worst thing in the world.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/717263990188032000
Corbyn demands investigation into Cameron's tax affairs http://huff.to/1MaQc1z
Is there no depth to which we shouldn't plunge in order to patronise these morons into thinking we think they're the salt of the earth?
http://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-the-steel-crisis-and-uk-electricity-prices
"Regardless of the relative prices in different countries, however, there’s a major problem with the argument that expensive electricity is at the heart of the UK steel industry’s problems. This is that electricity makes up a tiny share of steel production costs.
Raw material, freight and labour costs make up the majority of production costs. These can vary significantly between countries. UK labour costs of around $200 per tonne of steel, for example, are some 20-fold higher than the $10 per tonne in China. Raw material costs and freight costs appear to show relatively wide variation between countries, despite global trade.
The share of electricity in steel production costs is around 6%, according to one estimate for blast-furnace steel production, used at most major steelworks. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) says energy makes up 5.2% of costs for “basic metals”, which includes steel. The CCC says it is around 6% for integrated steelworks like Port Talbot."
The reason we have a major current accout deficit is because our consumers borrow too much. There is a near perfect correlation between savings rates and current accounts. Simply, our consumers borrow too much.
David Cameron on May 5th 2010.
Tony Blair May 1st 1997
Neil Kinnock 1992
Neil Kinnock 1987
Neil Kinnock 1985
Michael Foot 1982
Off topic - According to Jeremy Corbyn the “UK tax havens 'should face direct rule'”
Seems a tad over the top considering the UK does not have the authority to do so as far as I’m aware. I wonder if Jeremy is considering sending in ground troops to convince them?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35965855
RIP Ackbar. But he stole the line from Princess Leia in Empire Strikes Back. She says it twice to Luke after he arrives on Bespin #itsatrap
Being out of the EU would allow us to trade more freely with non-EU countries to act as a better counter-weight to our huge EU trade deficit.
What has become clear over the last few years is that EU governments, companies and consumers aren't interested in buying British products other than where it is absolutely necessary, our deficit is widening and demand for British goods is showing no sign of growth. I actually think this will continue to be the case unless with go all in and join the EMU.
Why is Corbyn pussy footing around. Let's just invade Panama and be done with it...
http://www.lbc.co.uk/sadiq-extends-lead-over-zac-lbc-poll-128085
Khan ten points clear, slightly ahead on fighting terrorism, and Tories saying it's a relief it's not worse.
After this and the past few weeks, we surely must expect a Labour lead in the polls shortly?
Due East is Belgium. By a whisker
Certain Colombian's love the place....
How are Ken Livingstone's arrangements these days?
This issue has glass houses all over the place.