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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After tomorrow’s Wisconsin primary we could be looking at House Speaker, Paul Ryan, very differently
From Politico on Paul Ryanhttps://t.co/gin0uviXsg pic.twitter.com/K0O8T76VvX
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#ONLYCRUZ
https://t.co/A4f8SI5Vc2
What about the stories of all these dictators etc.
That was weaker than most American lagers...
Jezza and Farron to move to Panama and to hole up out of sight. Leave the Tories to the limelight and let them lose the next General Election on their own.
The facts don't matter much - it's the air of sleaze/falseness.
22% for Goldsmith. In outer London Goldsmith leads 30% to 29%
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-eight-points-ahead-of-zac-goldsmith-in-latest-poll-a3217256.html
Don't 100% have the courage of my convictions right now with the GOP when it comes to cold hard wonga.
'richardDodd">looks like the Panama Papers could be a massive scam..I hope the Guardian paid a fortune for them..'
Who cares about tax avoidance when you can just hate the Guardian instead'
Just the usual hypocrisy from the Guardian,what's new ?
Has the Guardian exploited tax loopholes to save millions ...
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/.../has-the-guardian-exploited-tax...
16 May 2012 - The Guardian's tax bill is allegedly smaller than it should be. ... has been using convoluted but legal techniques to avoid paying tax, according to Private Eye. ... of running a tax avoidance scheme by the satirical magazine.
Of course, for the purposes of the proportional mayoral election, it doesn't really matter where exactly the votes stack up anyway: North Korean majorities for Labour in Tower Hamlets are just as much use to them as swing votes in Croydon and Barnet, as long as it gets them closer to 50% London-wide.
He's currently ~ 12/1 for the nomination and ~40/1 for POTUS.
If you think he'd be better than 6/4 vs. Hillary, you're better off backing on the POTUS market - or laying him for the nomination.
Personally I'd have Hillary as slight favourite in a direct matchup. Only just, though.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/khan-holds-his-lead-over-goldsmith-london-mayoral-race
Goldsmith 12 clear in Outer London.
GOP
Trump 42
Cruz 32
Kasich 23
Dems
Clinton 49
Sanders 48
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/widem.html
GOP national
Trump 38
Cruz 31
Kasich 19
Dems
Clinton 45
Sanders 44
General election
Clinton 47
Trump 35
Clinton 44
Cruz 39
Clinton 38
Kasich 45
Sanders 53
Trump 36
Sanders 50
Cruz 38
Sanders 45
Kasich 42
http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-support-fades-as-mistakes-grow-sanders-clinton-tied-ibdtipp-poll/
So Khan will win.
The Party would be in deep trouble if (and I'm still not sure how) they chose him over Trump or Cruz.
If Trump is close to a majority then I expect some sensible unbound delegates will help out in the 1st round.
I'm a bit of a New Order nut as may have been mentioned before. I've only tonight found the Sam Ball remix of True Faith.
I am rightly appalled at this abject failure and so am banishing myself in to solitary pro-European confinement to UKIPhome until after the EU vote
(unless Spurs win the league.. or actually finish ahead of the Goners or I beat TSE in the PB fantasy footie table).
Whilst I'm off to solitary, can I just say Remain will win comfortably. End of.
If he is the GOP nominee both Cruz and Trump bolt out of the door taking their voters with them, even Kasich would moan about it.
Ryan could end up 4th in the GE.
Was it Europe?
No, it's the fact that he's a bit shit.
I really don't want to spend my summer writing on PB about the GOP race.
'Popular vote shares:
1992: 43-34
2015: 36-31
Even allowing for that, the margin in Broxtowe was clearly narrower than a uniform swing would imply. But the result in 1992 was much more emphatic than in 1992, and the gap therefore not so great as you imply.'
Those figures are not accurate
In 1992 the national GB figures were Con 42.8% Lab 35.2% - Con Lead 7.6%
In 2015 the national GB figures were Con 37.8% Lab 31.2% - Con lead 6.6%.
Today's Standard poll for the London Mayoral Election is interesting and illustrates the key role two groups not hitherto considered will play in the final outcome.
The first are the 25% or so "Don't Knows" (both Inner and Outer London) and how they will split. The poll shows a return to what you would expect - Khan winning big in Inner London, Goldsmith winning not so big in Outer London. Khan will be happy with that as long as he gets out the Inner London vote which is his big problem.
The second are the 15-20% who won't vote for either Khan or Goldsmith with their first preference and what these voters will do with their second preference. It's a strange consistency but in the past three London mayoral elections approximately 55% of these voters used their second preference for either the Labour or the Conservatives and consistently voted 55-45 for the former.
Goldsmith has assiduously courted both UKIP and Green voters because he knows he may need their second preferences in a close fight (which it could be). Today's poll suggests Goldsmith may do better than some of his Conservative predecessors and might even afford to be 1% behind on first preferences.
Khan remains in the lead, however, and if he gets the Inner London Labour vote out, he'll probably win but this race has got a long way to go.
Though Trump is really putting in an effort, his numbers haven't gone up, he even went full Michael Bay with the ads:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/717003103871115267
Saturating media coverage isn't enough, Trump needs a calm positive message, he needs to start reassuring people not drive them crazy with his antics.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3520982/Come-Brexiteers-Former-England-captain-Sol-Campbell-kicks-vote-Leave-boost-British-football.html
Cheesy politician meets cheese castle.
https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/717065126613028864
My fantasy footie season is fizzling out. Lukaku has stopped scoring, and Vardy only scores for England now.
Prior to 2012, the LDs constituted the overwhelming majority of the non-Conservative, non-Labour vote. Currently the 9% definites are split between UKIP (3%), the LDs (3%) and Greens (2%) and Others (1%).
Khan will walk it.
I see hardly any of it on the news. Is there much activity on the ground. Brexit seems to have snuffed out coverage of other elections.
Will Khan as Mayor damage or help Corbyn? It remains to be seen. Khan has a few dodgy associates but is pretty mainstream Labour, and no particular friend of Jezza. He will be the most powerful elected Labour person in the land. Worth a punt as next leader?
He could still win this, my campaigning talent is legendary.
It will speculate if the options on the ballot paper was, Leave, Remain or EEA with full freedom of movement, what option would win under AV.
Edit: It was Hacker.
The exclusive poll finds that the “Remain” campaign now has a narrow lead after trailing last month, in a sign that Downing Street’s tactic – which has been described as “Project Fear” by its critics – is working.
Despite concerns that the steel crisis and the Brussels terror attacks could influence the referendum result, the poll finds that they have had little or no effect on how people intend to vote.
In an analysis of the ORB poll for this newspaper, Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded the Conservative Party’s general election victory, says that “the outcome of the referendum will hinge on which side can better turnout their supporters”.
The poll finds that 51 per cent of voters now support Remain – an increase of 4 per cent from last month. Leave’s support has decreased five points to 44 per cent.
Crucially, only 5 per cent of voters said they are undecided, with those who currently say that they do not know how they will vote more likely to back the Remain campaign on June 23.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/04/eu-referendum-project-fear-working-as-poll-shows-remain-taking-a/
Trump ain't heading for 25 in Wisconsin, he'll get more than 93 in Cali.
Clinton is there to be beaten which makes the craziness of the GOP primary voter base this time around seem all the more idiotic. Certainly compared to 2008 and 2012 where there were rich pickings simply by looking at the most mainstream candidate and ignoring the usual this side of the Atlantic crap about the GOP being all gun toting bible bashers, this cycle has so far caught me out.
I suppose once every so often a base goes up its own arse (witness Miliband E & Corbyn J).
I hope you have some better patter for the Londoners.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/717094564272742400
There are 12 Labour controlled Outer London boroughs compared with only 6 Conservative controlled.
Four Outer London boroughs - Barking, Haringey, Lewisham and Newham - have zero Conservative councillors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2014
Likewise Labour won 24.5 ** Outer London constituencies in 2015 compared to only 22 by the Conservatives.
** Erith & Thamesmead, Hampstead & Kilburn and Lewisham West & Penge are all split between Inner and Outer London.
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/reneg-ever-closer-union.shtml
I've laid so much Bush in the last year.
I agree with you Pulps on those two.
It's almost as if the British legal community was capable of expressing more than one opinion
He looks to have 3 in the bag (CD 3) and close on two others. (So perhaps 6 is fair value)