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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A betting market on the size of Donald Trump’s non flaccid
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A betting market on the size of Donald Trump’s non flaccid manhood sums up the weirdness of the GOP nomination race
Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many.
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/02/eu-referendum-young-voters-brexit-leave
"In a blow to David Cameron and the pro-EU camp, the online survey by Opinium puts the Leave side on 43%, four points ahead of Remain, on 39%. Some 18% of voters said they were undecided, while 1% refused to say."
The 1% refusing to say are probably LEAVE too.
He has only 'won' the delegates in an uncontested convention. If Trump fails to get around 1200 (the figure which would probably enable him to cross the 1237 line) then after a first ballot they will be free-range delegates and on this point Nate Silver's right: they won't break in favour of Trump.
I know you went on to say this but it's kinda important. They're gonna be free-range delegates if he doesn't cross the line first time of trying.
You can back all three remaining GOP candidates at 1/10 - so long as one of them becomes the nominee, you'll make a 10% return.
In fact you can, currently, back ALL of the ~25 republicans that betfair are offering odds on and *still* make a ~3% ROI. This regularly fluctuates - I've seen it as high as 7.5% at times.
That's bonkers.
* I know the remark was meant for something less interesting.
The new PB gold standard.
AV is dead, long live a Donald todger thread.
Hurrah and huzzah!
I'll get my coat..........
It will be concerning to Remainers than Project Fear has not moved the needle. But then again, maybe the goal is to make sure that Remainers turn up to vote, and it might be quite successful at that.
Meanwhile ....
Wisconsin - Loras College
Cruz 38 .. Trump 31 .. Kasich 18
Clinton 47 .. Sanders 41
http://www.loras.edu/news/loras-college-poll-finds-cruz-tops-trump-clinton-leads-sanders-tight-race-state-supreme-court-wisconsin/
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/04/six-months-jeremy-corbyn-already-one-historys-great-opposition-leaders
Despite the fact that everything Mr Young discusses happened in spite of Corbyn, not because of him. For example, tax credit cuts were thrown out by the Liberal Democrats before Corbyn was even elected. (When you are less effective than a party that has a mere 8 MPs, one of them in permanent hiding, and which is being led temporarily by a man facing a court case, you are really not doing well.) Welfare cuts were reversed because of opposition within the government.
The only issues where Corbyn has taken a stand - Trident and Syria - he has not merely lost but been humiliated by splits in his own party. As a result, he has backed down and followed his party on Europe despite his well-documented loathing for the EU.
Instructive though to see what is going through the minds of Corbyn's admirers. It immediately rules out the possibility of a challenge, as they don't want to understand how much of a disaster he is.
Time to consider how the race might go. Starts at 4pm, I think.
Skybet still has Leicester 33/1 to win next season, down from 50/1 but still good value I think. It is unusual to win consecutive years, but I can see little evidence that there will be a return to normality next year.
There's no wonder that JC has toyed with the idea of running less than 300 candidates next time - few Labour members believe that social democracy is viable to-day. The more political division becomes based on ethnicity, gender and sexuality the less class matters. It may well be that representative democracy is no longer effective, either here or in the USA.
Betting PostF1: pre-race piece, with two exciting tips, is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/bahrain-pre-race.html
Will I manage to identify and then ignore winning bets yet again?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35943798
I am also reminded of an old joke:
'I've got a 12-inch, but I don't use it as a rule.'
An article on Merkel's madness:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n07/wolfgang-streeck/scenario-for-a-wonderful-tomorrow
He's a lexicographical onanist.
That said, repetition is a pet hate of mine (from either the reading or writing perspective).
At school I was taught to avoid using 'said' because of repetition (which is total nonsense). If anything, excessive non-said words read ridiculously. People declaring, exclaiming, sputtering and so on just becomes a bit tedious.
Show, don't tell, is one of the mantras for good writing.
As a bonus, Labour has been quite effective on domestic issues, obviously helped by the Government's tiny majority, and the effective block on our getting involved in the Syrian mess has been maintained, Ydoethur's belief that the LibDems were responsible for Osborne backing off on tax credit cuts is not widely shared.
Downsides are that Jeremy isn't a great Parliamentary orator, not something I care about, we have the unresolved Trident stuff, and obviously we're not doing wonderfully in the polls. We tend to do better when the opposition in the PLP SsTFU, as (more or less) now, and I suspect that at some point his internal opposition will try to remove him, fail, and then shut up, push off or just bore everyone into indifference - there is a limit to how many "A former senior Cabinet Minister said privately..." stories the press can be bothered to run. At that point, we'll see. But for now, 4 out of 5.
My personal views are neither here nor there, but as most of the membership is to my left, I suggest it's evidence that any early challenge to Corbyn will indeed fail.
Still, I like his writing generally, I enjoy a bit of flowery talk, though there are limits. That he clearly thinks so much of himself makes his thoughts better taken in through the written word than spoken though. So very smug.
I do still try to mix it up a little while avoiding talking heads syndrome though.
I was too polite to point out it's from the Latin 'historia'. Which is feminine...
Still, that's Victorian London for you.
New plans to boost British steel industry announced: https://t.co/W38dwXAkyO https://t.co/aMtg45HEnN
I think people are sick of pollsters and lie to them .
...the tone seems a bit low this morning, I wonder why.
But the scandal is that the taxpayer was ever funding a far left propaganda outfit like this
"Watson!" Holmes ejaculated.
Usually a team that places as highly as Leicester will this year, in first or second place, and having been on top since December would have odds in the region of 5/1 or better. 33/1 is good odds.
Most likely there will be some reversion to the mean, but when you look at Leicesters record over the last year it has been very consistent. There may well be a new mean being set.
Take your pick.
But the scandal is that the taxpayer was ever funding a far left propaganda outfit like this
Governments seem desperate to give money away to charities, I guess they assume it'll be popular, who doesn't like being charitable? That sometimes it goes to nutters or is flushed down the toilet doesn't seem to occur to them and so checking beforehand.
Are the runners of kids company being charged with anything yet for open admissions either of fraud, or close tonight, wastefulness so ridiculous it should be illegal, and dangerously high levels orvarrogancecand stupidity?
Watching the Paris marathon on Eurosport. The number of spectators is tiny compared with London.
Whilst this isn't the be-all and end-all, it's a very good book on how to write:
http://www.amazon.com/On-Writing-Anniversary-Edition-Memoir/dp/1439156816
Although this is much funnier:
http://www.amazon.com/Write-Novel-Them---Misstep---Misstep/dp/0061357952/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1459672943&sr=1-1&keywords=How+not+to+write+a+novel
Articles like this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/the-downfall-of-brazils-dilma-rousseff-is-a-blow-to-ambitious-wo/ annoy me intensely. Why should the flaws of one woman mean that all 'ambitious women' are done for?
If you believe that Corbyn is not indulging in vicious personal abuse, you really need to pay more attention. He's not doing it personally, he's getting others - Macdonnell, Abbott, Burgon - to do it for him.
Labour are not delivering on domestic issues. Whether or not my views on the Liberal Democrats are widely shared is irrelevant. Einstein's views on relativity were not widely shared, and were hugely unpopular with his fellow physicists. They also happened to be accurate. This morning, again, Labour have shown their utter haplessness after Lucy Powell got her sums completely wrong over academisation, which should be a free hit for her. If you talk about added costs but not about reduced costs, you end up looking an idiot (not hard in Powell's case of course, as she is an idiot). Their actions over Tata have also veered between the vacillating and the hysterical.
I agree with your final sentence. But please understand, that's because of the refusal of you and people like you to face facts. Don't blame us if this means that Labour is forever standing up for causes you passionately believe in and wholly unable to do anything about them due to having only about 50 MPs.
I do so wish that your first sentence were correct as well. If anything I am being generous to Corbyn. I haven't even talked about the widespread racism he has reintroduced into Labour, or the fact he is operating a clique of wealthy and stupid Marxists in parallel to the official Labour movement, under the command of the truly vile Seamus Milne, a man whom I trust less far than I would David Irving, or his innumerable flipflops on economic policy. But they're all there, and all toxic.
But the scandal is that the taxpayer was ever funding a far left propaganda outfit like this
War on Want has been around for ages. Never seemed “far left” to me. Wonder what happened to it.
People should be judged by the content of their character, not the contents of their trousers.
Clearly there was a subliminal message in all this.
HMG supports Remain, I believe. You've been had.
http://www.waronwant.org/media/ttip-means-no-way-back-uk-steel-industry http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/charity-backing-anti-israel-rallies-has-state-cash-pulled/
War on Want has been around for ages. Never seemed “far left” to me. Wonder what happened to it.
There's none so blind...
And I really do have to get my coat as I am off to play the organ at my local church.
You may make of that what you will. But I want to feel some nice hard keys under both hands playing a fantastic thing through its long pipes building to a climax...
Dearie dearie me, why do I chose to play an instrument that has so many double meanings?
Its government cuts! (No really - hear me out!)
DFID was required to reduce its headcount like all civil service departments, in one of the early coalition cuts. Similtaneously its budget went up to meet the 0.7% target. The way to square this circle was to devolve a lot of spending to NGO's.
NGO's can be a very effective way of delivering aid, but they do need supervision. Otherwise you get incidents like this.