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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate. Interestingly, however, this does not seem to have affected UKIP's polling. That suggests to me that UKIP's brand is now independent of the EU, being a bucket for Trumpite incoherent populist nativist voters.

    So UKIP might do well on 6 May without telling us too much about what's going on in the referendum. However, I'm inclined to agree with Mark Senior that they will underperform their polling in the Welsh elections. Their voters don't have all much motivation to come out for this election.

    Who is Nigel Farage ?
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    @YBarddCwsc I could be wrong (I was not living in Wales at the time) but surely Wigley retired, rather than got the push? He was getting on a bit and had been leader for a long time.


    @ydoethur

    I think he “retired”. Rather than retired.

    At least from what I understand from Plaid Cymru friends.

    If that is the case, you're right, they were moronic. Ieuan Wyn Jones never had the same authority (look how at one point the party even made Dafydd Iwan the official leader!) or the same level of personal appeal.

    However, it is not his fault Plaid were unable to oust Labour as the SNP did, and had to support them instead. Either a fair electoral system or a moment of sanity by the LDs would have sufficed in 2007.

    The chance was squandered and Wales has paid. Any admirers of Corbyn please remember that Welsh Labour is to the right of him, and has far more experience of governing (indeed, more talent too). Public services in a Britain led by Corbyn would look like a much worse version of those in Wales.
    Do you think Lib Dems agreeing to a coalition with Conservatives would have worked out well for them? We have some empirical evidence on the topic.
    Yes. Because it wasn't a coalition with the Conservatives. It was an all-party coalition to reject Labour, who had suffered a thumping defeat and needed some time out to reorganise themselves. The deal on offer made the Liberal Democrats damn near equal second in terms of influence to the Conservatives with Plaid providing the leadership.

    Moreover it might have helped them get a better deal at Westminster by giving them practical experience of governing and the problems that brings. They might for example have been forewarned on the tuition fees debacle and either not made such a stupid pledge or abstained on the vote. Given it was that that killed them, rather than being in coalition per se...
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    I will be at the Cardiff v Derby game. Also a pretty significant game. See you Tuesday evening, Mike!

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053

    Germany's law was NOT built from the ground up after WW2. They didn't wipe the slate clean and create an entirely new system of laws, though of course they got a new constitution. They didn't even declare the Nazi-era laws all null and void - some remain in effect.

    Most continental EU countries run on a hybrid of Roman law and the Napoleonic Code (which was itself based on Roman law). Talking about Napoleon bringing civil law to Germany is actually to get legal history backwards. Many of the German states (including Bavaria and Prussia) had civil law systems that were based on the Roman codes by the 18th century; the Naploeonic code actually scrapped France's old feudal-derived legal system and brought it into closer alignment with these other European states which inspired it.

    Moreover, "where Napoleon reached" is a very poor guide to the spread of the Napoleonic legal influence, because the codification had legal influence in its own right. Even the German states that Napoleon did not conquer and which already had codes of their own were influenced to some extent by the Napoleonic Code. Switzerland adopted a civil code in 1907 that was based on a hybrid of the German and French systems; Ataturk then largely brought the Swiss civil code to Turkey in the 1920s. The Qing dynasty imported large aspects of the German code to China, and many aspects of the Communist Era legal system still derive from it.

    Good point about Germany, although it's still a jump to say "it's Napoleonic". If you extend the conversation to include legal systems that have been influenced by the Napoleonic Code then that's an extension too far: it's like saying "well, we're all Africans really" in a discussion about migration. Ditto for legal systems that existed before Napoleon

    I also need to point out that I didn't say Napoleon brought civil law to Germany (were you contradicting a point somebody else made?)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    edited April 2016
    valleyboy said:

    UKIP have had a dreadful start to their Assembly campaign, riven by infighting and the eventual choosing of 'surprising' candidates such as Hamilton. This has not gone down well in the valleys and my strong feeling is that they will get less than the 7 seats projected in opinion polls, although I expect 3/4, still too many as far as i am concerned. It could well be that Hamilton will be a regional AM for my constituency, a though that turns my stomach.
    Labour is jot likely to get much benefit if UKIP do badly, with Plaid being the main beneficiaries. My guess at the moment is that Labour gets 27 seats.
    The Tories are having a bad press down here over the steel. This may make a marginal, but not significant difference to their chances. I think Labour is doing ok, Plaid are getting a lot of attention, but UKIP are nowhere on it and the charge that we could impose tariffs if we are outside the EU is not really making any impact.
    Did I mention the Liberals? Who are they? Don't think they will get even the 5 seats they had last time. They are the main losers to any UKIP gains.
    Ps Port Talbot is presently a dump. God knows what it will be like if the plant closes. Unlike Ken Clarke, I do visit there and not just pass by on the m4!

    I would agree with almost all of that. I wonder though how bad the impact will be on Port Talbot. Unlike say Ebbw Vale when the works closed there, there are still other big employers going (unless the chemical works has closed too). There is also constant talk about additional power generation.

    None of that of course will be of any comfort to those who will lose their jobs, or mitigate the shock to the town of losing the works after so long. Just to say that I think the picture is not quite as dark as it's being painted at present when the unions are (quite rightly, from the point of view of their members) trying to salvage something from the collapse.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016

    All 3 of those countries export mainly agricultural products and commodities. I doubt that there will be much of a market for Australian iron ore in Britain...

    The Australasians see their future export markets in Asia. All NZ lamb is halal for example to make sales to the middle east easier. China is the destination for dairy and beef exports, as well as Australian ore.

    We cannot recreate the Empire a century on. Those countries have moved on.

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    These countries are as likely as most to be receptive to Brand Britain.

    Economically, historically and culturally, we are similar.

    Quite what we have in common with Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro is a mystery - but they will soon be part of the euroshambles.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053

    Pedant's note: the UK DOES, of course, have a constitution - there is such a thing as constitutional law! It doesn't have a written constitution that appears in a single document, but even the claim that the UK doesn't have a "written constitution" is wide of the mark because some legislation is clearly constitutional in nature. As an aside, constitutional law in other countries is often not completely defined by the document that says "constitution" in the title.

    I have had this argument before [about whether UK has a constitution] and to save time we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,007
    edited April 2016
    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    It'll be Julian Castro at that point.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    No. Clinton's VP pick becomes the nominee.

    Whoever it is might well be a stronger candidate and a better president as well.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2016
    @AlastairMeeks

    'Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate.'


    Surely the biggest loser so far is Tim Farron who appears to be totally absent from the debate or is he just ignored by the media ?
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    Pulpstar said:

    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    It'll be Julian Castro at that point.
    The former Mexican Major League Baseball infielder?
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    No. Clinton's VP pick becomes the nominee.

    Whoever it is might well be a stronger candidate and a better president as well.
    Not if the FBI investigation causes Clinton enough trouble to tip the election in her opponent's favour but not enough to pull out the race.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,007
    stjohn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    It'll be Julian Castro at that point.
    The former Mexican Major League Baseball infielder?
    VP frontrunner
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    john_zims said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    'Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate.'


    Surely the biggest loser so far is Tim Farron who appears to be totally absent from the debate or is he just ignored by the media ?

    The Lib Dems are at present completely irrelevant.
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    The competition for nursing positions abroad in the Philippines is cut-throat, I have relatives that have and/or are applying, and you need a good degree and two years of continuous hospital experience before you will even be considered. The down side of this is it means that there is huge competition to get those two years of experience here and there is a surplus of nursing graduates and hence hospitals are tending now to charge nurses for the pleasure of working for them for the first two years to get the experience. A number of very able nurses from less well off families are as a result unable to get their toe in the door and get a job that might help support their family.

    The Philippines is one of the most qualified countries I have ever been to, because the number of proper salaried jobs is so low families bankrupt themselves to educate their children, and hence employers are able to hold out for the best qualified, for example, it's almost impossible to get a job in retail that involves operating a cash register without an accounting degree.

    Not only are Filipinos very well qualified, the use of English as a second language is widespread and the culture is much more westernised than most non-EU countries that we get immigrants from. The Spanish, then American influence means that people are very comfortable in western culture, being by and large Catholic (there is a Muslim minority).

    I sometimes wonder how incompetent the governments there have been. Such a talented, industrious and skilled people should make for a much wealthier country than it is. Sadly the Philippines principal export remains its people. It is like Ireland in the last century, generating a world wide diaspora.

    When people resent immigrants, it is worth noting that Filipinos are never mentioned, despite there being about 200 000 in the country. I think that this is because they integrate so well, and have a very high employment rate. The fact that Filipinos are the second largest group applying for British citizenship testifies to this (and the fact that opportunities back home are very limited). They want to integrate.

    Ideally I would like the UK to train and retain enough of its own essential personnel to not need to recruit abroad, but decades of incompetence in personnel management in the UK means that we do not. It is much harder to recruit there now because of the Tory immigration limits on visas. I would take any number of Filipino Nurses over dubious arranged marrages from Mirapur or family reunification from MENA.



    Gosh, I agree with you. A relevant point is that over 80% of Filipinos are Christian. Mind you, their population growth is fearsome - less than 6 million in 1877 and over 100 million today.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    All 3 of those countries export mainly agricultural products and commodities. I doubt that there will be much of a market for Australian iron ore in Britain...

    The Australasians see their future export markets in Asia. All NZ lamb is halal for example to make sales to the middle east easier. China is the destination for dairy and beef exports, as well as Australian ore.

    We cannot recreate the Empire a century on. Those countries have moved on.

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    These countries are as likely as most to be receptive to Brand Britain.

    Economically, historically and culturally, we are similar.

    Quite what we have in common with Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro is a mystery - but they will soon be part of the euroshambles.
    What trade barriers exist at present with those old Commonwealth countries that could be removed and boost our exports?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016
    The blocking 'minority' is 14 nations according to yesterday's Independent.

    Many in that bloc will have no steel production capacity domestically - so those that do are trying to impose higher European prices on them.

    No doubt the likes of Greece are being stiffed again by the Germans trying to protect their own interests.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,210
    john_zims said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    'Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate.'


    Surely the biggest loser so far is Tim Farron who appears to be totally absent from the debate or is he just ignored by the media ?

    The launch of the Lib Dems local election campaign got 20 seconds on the six o'clock news on Thursday:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35936356
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    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    “pork pie and cucumber sandwiches”?????
    Yes indeed, but not necessarily between the same two pieces of bread you understand. It's a Brighton delicacy doncha know?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yawn.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016

    chestnut said:

    All 3 of those countries export mainly agricultural products and commodities. I doubt that there will be much of a market for Australian iron ore in Britain...

    The Australasians see their future export markets in Asia. All NZ lamb is halal for example to make sales to the middle east easier. China is the destination for dairy and beef exports, as well as Australian ore.

    We cannot recreate the Empire a century on. Those countries have moved on.

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    These countries are as likely as most to be receptive to Brand Britain.

    Economically, historically and culturally, we are similar.

    Quite what we have in common with Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro is a mystery - but they will soon be part of the euroshambles.
    What trade barriers exist at present with those old Commonwealth countries that could be removed and boost our exports?
    I'm no expert on those details Mr Fox - though I can remember being whacked for tariffs as an importer from Australia several years ago, just as I constantly was from the USA.

    My vague recall is that my customers in those areas were similarly impacted by their nation states.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    //twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Hinkley Point, damaging on so, so many levels. Ridiculously overpriced, and unlikely to be delivered.

    French friends are amazed that we're even bothering given the problems with Flammanville.
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 913

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    “pork pie and cucumber sandwiches”?????
    Yes indeed, but not necessarily between the same two pieces of bread you understand. It's a Brighton delicacy doncha know?
    Pork pie bap with branston pickle is the signature dish in my local 3 Michelin star pub - The the Unicorn Lutterworth!!!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    stjohn said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    No. Clinton's VP pick becomes the nominee.

    Whoever it is might well be a stronger candidate and a better president as well.
    Not if the FBI investigation causes Clinton enough trouble to tip the election in her opponent's favour but not enough to pull out the race.
    Hard to see anything so bad it would overcome her current advantage without it being so bad that the party suspend her. Remember, while the Dems are unenthusiastic about her they're terrified at the thought of Trump.

    Castro from the little I know of him would actually be a much better President than any on offer, as well as being the first Hispanic and the youngest ever to hold that office.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087
    edited April 2016

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    “pork pie and cucumber sandwiches”?????
    Yes indeed, but not necessarily between the same two pieces of bread you understand. It's a Brighton delicacy doncha know?
    I did wonder. Quite fancy a nice pork pie and some piccalilli. Think I’ll have to have a wander down to the butchers.

    On holiday in Spain some years ago I had a spanish omlette bocadilla Mr Icarus. Kept me going for ages.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    chestnut said:

    All 3 of those countries export mainly agricultural products and commodities. I doubt that there will be much of a market for Australian iron ore in Britain...

    The Australasians see their future export markets in Asia. All NZ lamb is halal for example to make sales to the middle east easier. China is the destination for dairy and beef exports, as well as Australian ore.

    We cannot recreate the Empire a century on. Those countries have moved on.

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    These countries are as likely as most to be receptive to Brand Britain.

    Economically, historically and culturally, we are similar.

    Quite what we have in common with Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro is a mystery - but they will soon be part of the euroshambles.
    What trade barriers exist at present with those old Commonwealth countries that could be removed and boost our exports?
    I'm no expert on those details Mr Fox - though I can remember being whacked for tariffs as an importer from Australia several years ago, just as I constantly was from the USA.

    My vague recall is that my customers in those areas were similarly impacted by their nation states.
    The EU (including UK) is Australias biggest trade partner, with a balance of trade significantly in our favour. It is also a growing share.

    http://www.eubusiness.com/topics/trade/eu-australia-trade

    In what way would this be improved by Brexit?
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    tlg86 said:

    john_zims said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    'Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate.'


    Surely the biggest loser so far is Tim Farron who appears to be totally absent from the debate or is he just ignored by the media ?

    The launch of the Lib Dems local election campaign got 20 seconds on the six o'clock news on Thursday:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35936356
    On a pro rata basis to their respective representation in the HoC, not strictly relevant I appreciate as regards local elections, but for purely illustrative purposes, this would mean the Tories being entitled to a whacking great almost 14 minutes worth on the aforementioned six o'clock news.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    West Ham are the one true Claret and Blue :lol:
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. 30, Hinkley has another link to the steel issue: both are influenced significantly by the war on carbon. Gas-fired or coal-fired power stations would cost far less.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So with Kezia Dugdale now saying she is in a relationship with a woman and Mundell recently coming out is there any country in the world that challenges Scotland for the title of LGB power?
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    Icarus said:

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    “pork pie and cucumber sandwiches”?????
    Yes indeed, but not necessarily between the same two pieces of bread you understand. It's a Brighton delicacy doncha know?
    Pork pie bap with branston pickle is the signature dish in my local 3 Michelin star pub - The the Unicorn Lutterworth!!!
    Oh yes ..... Lutterworth, not a million miles from Melton Mowbray, they know all about their pork pies in those parts!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    Alistair said:

    So with Kezia Dugdale now saying she is in a relationship with a woman and Mundell recently coming out is there any country in the world that challenges Scotland for the title of LGB power?

    Don't get ahead of yourself Alistair, we're still waiting for the Liberal Democrats. I'll count Mhairi Black for SNP purposes.

    Of course, after this election they may have no MSPs anyway, which would surely leave Scotland undisputed world leaders in that area.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470
    edited April 2016
    valleyboy said:

    Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.

    Same with the planned Great Western rail electrification, it's going to end at Swansea.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087
    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.

    Isn’t Swansea West of Port Talbot/Aberavon?

    I’d rather like to hear from Vince Cable on this, as the previous Business Secretary.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    viewcode said:

    Germany's law was NOT built from the ground up after WW2. They didn't wipe the slate clean and create an entirely new system of laws, though of course they got a new constitution. They didn't even declare the Nazi-era laws all null and void - some remain in effect.

    Most continental EU countries run on a hybrid of Roman law and the Napoleonic Code (which was itself based on Roman law). Talking about Napoleon bringing civil law to Germany is actually to get legal history backwards. Many of the German states (including Bavaria and Prussia) had civil law systems that were based on the Roman codes by the 18th century; the Naploeonic code actually scrapped France's old feudal-derived legal system and brought it into closer alignment with these other European states which inspired it.

    Moreover, "where Napoleon reached" is a very poor guide to the spread of the Napoleonic legal influence, because the codification had legal influence in its own right. Even the German states that Napoleon did not conquer and which already had codes of their own were influenced to some extent by the Napoleonic Code. Switzerland adopted a civil code in 1907 that was based on a hybrid of the German and French systems; Ataturk then largely brought the Swiss civil code to Turkey in the 1920s. The Qing dynasty imported large aspects of the German code to China, and many aspects of the Communist Era legal system still derive from it.

    Good point about Germany, although it's still a jump to say "it's Napoleonic". If you extend the conversation to include legal systems that have been influenced by the Napoleonic Code then that's an extension too far: it's like saying "well, we're all Africans really" in a discussion about migration. Ditto for legal systems that existed before Napoleon

    I also need to point out that I didn't say Napoleon brought civil law to Germany (were you contradicting a point somebody else made?)
    I was agreeing with you that Napoleon didn't bring the Napoleonic code to Germany, which is a common misconception - but one can argue the reverse, that in many ways Napoleon brought the German code to France ;)

    Splitting hairs between "Napoleonic" and "German" civil codes is just a bit silly in this context really - they have both influenced each other, and many European countries (I gave some examples) use a system that is explicitly a hybrid of the two. There is a real gap between that system and the English common law, or even the Scottish civil law.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Jonathan,

    Change the EU? I suspect you are either an idealist or very young (that communism looks a nice idea. It's never been tried but it deserves a go). I suspect it's the former. When one country out of 28 can veto a new idea, it won't be changing its destination at all. Political Union is the destination and always has been. That's an idealistic notion, and a worthy aim for idealists.

    Even here, you get pork barrel politics as the norm. Inevitably, you lose influence as the numbers increase. France got in at the beginning, and made sure the UK didn't. That ship has sailed, hence CAP became established and won't change.

    The idea of meaningful change is fanciful.

    "The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit. Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line, Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it."

    The idea that any of this is solved by leaving the EU and returning power to Westminster is absurd. Have you seen Westminster? I guess we'll get bigger, better duck islands.
    We might solve them, we might not - but at least we could not blame our problems on anyone else, legitimately or otherwise.
    I suppose in the end this rests on who you personally call (or are prepared to call) 'us' and 'them'.

    Even that the UK this is hardly agreed. For example few North of the border would call Westminster "us". Many other people across the UK blame "them" at Westminster.

    What we need are politicians that are prepared to take responsibility at all levels, including the EU and start talking about 'us' a bit more.
    As a country we are directly responsible via elections for every one of the MPs we elect. The same cannot be said of the MEPs where we elect only 9% of them.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    So with Kezia Dugdale now saying she is in a relationship with a woman and Mundell recently coming out is there any country in the world that challenges Scotland for the title of LGB power?

    Don't get ahead of yourself Alistair, we're still waiting for the Liberal Democrats.
    The middle class white cis hetrosexual male has to have some political hero to look up to. And that man is Willie Rennie.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    viewcode said:

    Germany's law was NOT built from the ground up after WW2. They didn't wipe the slate clean and create an entirely new system of laws, though of course they got a new constitution. They didn't even declare the Nazi-era laws all null and void - some remain in effect.

    Most continental EU countries run on a hybrid of Roman law and the Napoleonic Code (which was itself based on Roman law). Talking about Napoleon bringing civil law to Germany is actually to get legal history backwards. Many of the German states (including Bavaria and Prussia) had civil law systems that were based on the Roman codes by the 18th century; the Naploeonic code actually scrapped France's old feudal-derived legal system and brought it into closer alignment with these other European states which inspired it.

    Moreover, "where Napoleon reached" is a very poor guide to the spread of the Napoleonic legal influence, because the codification had legal influence in its own right. Even the German states that Napoleon did not conquer and which already had codes of their own were influenced to some extent by the Napoleonic Code. Switzerland adopted a civil code in 1907 that was based on a hybrid of the German and French systems; Ataturk then largely brought the Swiss civil code to Turkey in the 1920s. The Qing dynasty imported large aspects of the German code to China, and many aspects of the Communist Era legal system still derive from it.

    Good point about Germany, although it's still a jump to say "it's Napoleonic". If you extend the conversation to include legal systems that have been influenced by the Napoleonic Code then that's an extension too far: it's like saying "well, we're all Africans really" in a discussion about migration. Ditto for legal systems that existed before Napoleon

    I also need to point out that I didn't say Napoleon brought civil law to Germany (were you contradicting a point somebody else made?)
    I was agreeing with you that Napoleon didn't bring the Napoleonic code to Germany, which is a common misconception - but one can argue the reverse, that in many ways Napoleon brought the German code to France ;)

    Splitting hairs between "Napoleonic" and "German" civil codes is just a bit silly in this context really - they have both influenced each other, and many European countries (I gave some examples) use a system that is explicitly a hybrid of the two. There is a real gap between that system and the English common law, or even the Scottish civil law.
    Confederation of the Rhine!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederation_of_the_Rhine
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.
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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Cymru/Wales needs a powerful party that stands up for its people. The current Tories' attitude to steel-making is akin to their attitude to coal in the 1980s. Whether the current adminstration in Cardiff Bay will be able to do anything about Port Talbot is likely to impact on Labour's performance on 6/5/16. With regard to comments below about Dafydd Wigley, he was an inspired leader who sadly he had to retire quickly due to serious ill health at a most unfortunate time, and PC have effectively treaded water since then.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,007
    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.

    Port Talbot is east of Swansea.
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.

    Isn’t Swansea West of Port Talbot/Aberavon?

    I’d rather like to hear from Vince Cable on this, as the previous Business Secretary.
    LOL Quite right.
    What I should have said, is that most major employers bypass PT, on the m4, which runs above the town, and head straight for Swansea, which is only a few miles up the motorway.

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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    UKIP have to be a bit careful here. Too much banging the drum for trade tariffs and protectionism, and their sole MP might pack his bags and head off, claiming it wasn't what he had in mind. Most Kippers would say good riddance, of course. But Remain and the liberal media would have a field day, and UKIP would look a bit of a rabble.
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    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    West Ham are the one true Claret and Blue :lol:
    You're entirely wrong there I'm afraid Dr. Prasannan. Burnley F.C. were founded 134 years ago in 1882, compared with WHU F.C., the relative new boys on the block, who didn't appear until 13 years later in 1895.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053
    chestnut said:

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    If a free trade deal between Canada, Australia and New Zealand was desired by Canada, Australia and New Zealand, then I assume it would already exist without us. It does not.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    edited April 2016
    PPP General Election

    Clinton 48 Trump 41
    Clinton 45 Cruz 42
    Clinton 41 Kasich 45
    Clinton 45 Romney 32
    Clinton 44 Ryan 39

    Sanders 48 Trump 40
    Sanders 48 Cruz 41
    Sanders 41 Kasich 44
    Sanders 48 Romney 31
    Sanders 45 Ryan 38

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_33116.pdf

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,472
    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.

    Looking into it, you're right that the effects may be worse than I had thought as I hadn't quite appreciated how much proposed development rested on the viability of the steelworks. It does have a good port though, which may be of some help. It could take quite a lot of vessels from Milford Haven for example with only quite modest changes to layout and storage facilities.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yes, that's absolutely extraordinary. I'd never thought I'd live to see the day. The Brexit Right are now sponsoring EU protectionism just to kick the Cameron government around. It's incoherent.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016
    This is on the Conservative Home website.
    "It may also be a symptom of the decline of proper Cabinet government that the Secretary of State was less willing or able to take the initiative and engage in contingency planning within BIS. Perhaps in modern Departments the capacity or instinct to do that without central direction has eroded."
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/04/after-redcar-how-did-government-get-blindsided-by-steel-again.html

    The good news is that we get to see that Javid is incapable of doing showing leadership in preparing for predictable events and is unable to stand up to Osborne. a R.H.I.N.O. minister of cabinet.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087
    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.

    Isn’t Swansea West of Port Talbot/Aberavon?

    I’d rather like to hear from Vince Cable on this, as the previous Business Secretary.
    LOL Quite right.
    What I should have said, is that most major employers bypass PT, on the m4, which runs above the town, and head straight for Swansea, which is only a few miles up the motorway.

    IIRC, without looking at the map, the main railway line doesn’t go through Aberavon either. Does it?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,462
    HYUFD said:

    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over

    Yet, as I understand yesterdays news, UK government has been behind moves to slow down or even block tariffs. So even if we leave EU we will still have a free-trade first UK government. Frankly it is another example of Leave promising something that won't happen.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    UKIP have to be a bit careful here. Too much banging the drum for trade tariffs and protectionism, and their sole MP might pack his bags and head off, claiming it wasn't what he had in mind. Most Kippers would say good riddance, of course. But Remain and the liberal media would have a field day, and UKIP would look a bit of a rabble.

    60% of the public back nationalising Port Talbot Steel in the latest polls and most would likely back tariffs too
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    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    So with Kezia Dugdale now saying she is in a relationship with a woman and Mundell recently coming out is there any country in the world that challenges Scotland for the title of LGB power?

    Don't get ahead of yourself Alistair, we're still waiting for the Liberal Democrats.
    The middle class white cis hetrosexual male has to have some political hero to look up to. And that man is Willie Rennie.
    You are taking the p there.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087
    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Sad. Wish you well.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,429

    Estobar said:

    Hola
    O/T there is a very good piece on Nate Silver's 538 about Donald Trump's chances. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

    Well worthy reading

    It seems strange to me how Nate Silver places so much blind belief on Betfair, a betting exchange located thousands and thousands of miles distant from American shores and played, by definition and by law, principally by non-Americans, whose knowledge of US politics and elections is somewhat limited.
    I see no mention is made of the likes of Ladbrokes (and Corals),who through their expert Shadsy, really do know their political betting onions and who have Trump largely unmoved over the past few days at 1.44, compared with Betfair's 1.82.
    One or other of these is calling this contest very wrongly.
    What I would really liked to have heard from Nate Silver is - if not Trump then whom as between Cruz and Kasich? I would rather hope it would be the latter, having backed him as far out as 200/1 and having been largely ridiculed for doing so by a number of so-called experts on PB.com. Are you listening David Herdson and others?
    I don't think I ever ridiculed you for taking a 200/1 bet on Kasich. There'd always have been trading value there at the least given Rubio's weaknesses. If I did then you may well have the last word and at a minimum are in a good position to trade out at a sizable profit.

    I've certainly been critical of those who've been downbeat on Trump's chances, and not without reason. Even now, I think the betting markets underrate his position. But I did do a piece last week on why Kasich *should* be backed. Admittedly, the Cruz scandal hasn't taken off like I thought it would but it's still lingering like a bad smell. If Trump is to be stopped at the convention, Kasich seems to me to be the obvious person to do it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    West Ham are the one true Claret and Blue :lol:
    You're entirely wrong there I'm afraid Dr. Prasannan. Burnley F.C. were founded 134 years ago in 1882, compared with WHU F.C., the relative new boys on the block, who didn't appear until 13 years later in 1895.
    [scoffing!] But we're higher up the Football League Pyramid than they are (and Villa!)!
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    On topic.
    The LDs reduced to 2 MSPs in Wales would be very bad for their "fightback". With Scotland also looking like a further decline in representatives for them and possibly in the London Assembly as well, Farron could be staring at a position where he has lost representatives in all of the 3 big battles of the May elections. Of course due to distractions elsewhere for Labour and the Conservatives, little attention will probably fall on Farron but he cannot claim to be making ground after taking over from Clegg. Instead he will be "managing the decline".
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016
    viewcode said:

    chestnut said:

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    If a free trade deal between Canada, Australia and New Zealand was desired by Canada, Australia and New Zealand, then I assume it would already exist without us. It does not.
    I think you'll find that it does. All those countries have bi-lateral free trade arrangements with each of the others. You can add the USA as well.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    One might say 'they would say that wouldn't they'. And 50% of the countries of the EU is hardly 'cobbled together'
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    john_zims said:

    @AlastairMeeks

    'Nigel Farage has been one of the big losers so far of the referendum campaign, having been largely eclipsed by the Conservative Leavers in the public debate.'


    Surely the biggest loser so far is Tim Farron who appears to be totally absent from the debate or is he just ignored by the media ?

    The Lib Dems are at present completely irrelevant.
    Fixed it for you. The Liberal Democrats need to decide what they are rather than what they are not.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    edited April 2016
    Well, it's like swallowing poison but I'm now backing Remain. The garbled incoherences Leave are coming out with are just too much to bear. They're advocating Corbynite welfarism and trade protectionism for the love of God! I'm keeping an open mind and may reassess when Leave have got their act together. A sad day, but in the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu, 'perhaps these people aren't ready for freedom yet'.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    chestnut said:

    All 3 of those countries export mainly agricultural products and commodities. I doubt that there will be much of a market for Australian iron ore in Britain...

    The Australasians see their future export markets in Asia. All NZ lamb is halal for example to make sales to the middle east easier. China is the destination for dairy and beef exports, as well as Australian ore.

    We cannot recreate the Empire a century on. Those countries have moved on.

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    These countries are as likely as most to be receptive to Brand Britain.

    Economically, historically and culturally, we are similar.

    Quite what we have in common with Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro is a mystery - but they will soon be part of the euroshambles.
    What trade barriers exist at present with those old Commonwealth countries that could be removed and boost our exports?
    Lots that were imposed by us when we sacrificed the Commonwealth on the alter of the EEC.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    If Port Talbot goes it will have dreadful effect on what is, already, a depressed area. Both PT and its adjoining town, Aberavon, were built because of the works. Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.
    I guess many of its former workers would take very early retirement, or look for minimum wage jobs in Swansea, the call centre capital of Wales.
    Hopefully, and I am hopeful, that something can be salvaged from the mess. A lot of credibility on saving the plant, or major parts of it, rests on the shoulders of the UK Government and to a lesser extent, WG.

    Isn’t Swansea West of Port Talbot/Aberavon?

    I’d rather like to hear from Vince Cable on this, as the previous Business Secretary.
    LOL Quite right.
    What I should have said, is that most major employers bypass PT, on the m4, which runs above the town, and head straight for Swansea, which is only a few miles up the motorway.

    IIRC, without looking at the map, the main railway line doesn’t go through Aberavon either. Does it?
    There's a Port Talbot Parkway station:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Talbot_Parkway_railway_station
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    West Ham are the one true Claret and Blue :lol:
    Amen.
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    Earlier I heard the Nick Robinson BC R4 Today report on UKIP and how Farage may be focusing his attention away from the referendum onto the political position from June 24th. This would explain why he has been so divisive within UKIP to other potential rivals such as Carswell and Evans etc. If the Camerons do hang on and control the Conservative party after June 23rd UKIP will be the obvious alternative home for those that the left leaning Osborne/Cameron group drive out of the party.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053

    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Sad. Wish you well.
    Thank you.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470
    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Get well soon!
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    stjohn said:

    ydoethur said:

    stjohn said:

    Wanderer. If Trump wins the nomination and the FBI kicks in once we know its Clinton/Trump then it could be Trump's by default?

    No. Clinton's VP pick becomes the nominee.

    Whoever it is might well be a stronger candidate and a better president as well.
    Not if the FBI investigation causes Clinton enough trouble to tip the election in her opponent's favour but not enough to pull out the race.
    It is possible but, I think, very very unlikely that the FBI will nab Hillary after she is nominated. They would need a very good explanation for why they had done it in August rather than June.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,429

    FWIW , I think the projection given above by David Herdson courtesy Roger Scully is too pessimistic for Labour and too optimistic for UKIP in Wales . The imposition of Hamilton , Reckless and others on the UKIP list candidates will have an adverse effect on their vote share but I still expect them to get 5 list seats .
    My guesstimate is Lab 30 Plaid 13 Con 10 UKIP 5 LD 2 leaving Labour just short ( again ) of an overall majority ) .

    The projection follows directly from the poll. Clearly, as always, there's a question of how to translate votes into seats and UKIP in particular raises the questions about where it's coming and from whom. For reasons I don't know, I can't find the poll on the YouGov website.

    However, the AMS system will, to some extent, reduce those effects. On UNS, UKIP should score at least one AM everywhere and more than one in most regions. That's simply the maths of what 15% gets you. If that support is concentrated, they may be adversely affected by hangover effects but not much.

    What I don't understand is how Labour can reach 30 seats without a vote share well up into the high thirties? A drop in constituency vote will lose them seats and they won't get them back on the lists.

    Also, while regional effects again work to Plaid's advantage, how do you get them to a 3-seat lead over the Tories when they're level-pegging on the list?

    I think a lot of people (at least, those who pay the Welsh Assembly any attention), will be surprised by how well UKIP do.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030

    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    West Ham are the one true Claret and Blue :lol:
    You're entirely wrong there I'm afraid Dr. Prasannan. Burnley F.C. were founded 134 years ago in 1882, compared with WHU F.C., the relative new boys on the block, who didn't appear until 13 years later in 1895.
    Ah but Burnley didn't adopt the Claret and Blue strip until 1910. West Ham have been Claret and Blue since 1903
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053
    chestnut said:

    viewcode said:

    chestnut said:

    I fail to see why any of this would stop us entering a productive free trade deal incorporating places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

    If a free trade deal between Canada, Australia and New Zealand was desired by Canada, Australia and New Zealand, then I assume it would already exist without us. It does not.
    I think you'll find that it does. All those countries have bi-lateral free trade arrangements with each of the others....
    Three bilateral arrangements do not add up to to one trilateral arrangement.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    MP_SE said:

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yawn.
    Why yawn other than it runs counter to the anti-EU hysteria which dominates comments here?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470
    matt said:

    MP_SE said:

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yawn.
    Why yawn other than it runs counter to the anti-EU hysteria which dominates comments here?
    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,053

    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Get well soon!
    Thank you.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,462

    Well, it's like swallowing poison but I'm now backing Remain. The garbled incoherences Leave are coming out with are just too much to bear. They're advocating Corbynite welfarism and trade protectionism for the love of God! I'm keeping an open mind and may reassess when Leave have got their act together. A sad day, but in the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu, 'perhaps these people aren't ready for freedom yet'.

    Fundamentally Leave's problem is that most of their supporters believe that the EU is at the root of all the country's problems and that once we leave we will enter Boris's fabled sunny uplands. Reality is completely different as the steel case is proving.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    Well, it's like swallowing poison but I'm now backing Remain. The garbled incoherences Leave are coming out with are just too much to bear. They're advocating Corbynite welfarism and trade protectionism for the love of God! I'm keeping an open mind and may reassess when Leave have got their act together. A sad day, but in the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu, 'perhaps these people aren't ready for freedom yet'.

    Fundamentally Leave's problem is that most of their supporters believe that the EU is at the root of all the country's problems and that once we leave we will enter Boris's fabled sunny uplands. Reality is completely different as the steel case is proving.
    Isn't Port Talbot happening even though we're IN the EU?
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    Just arrived in Brighton for today's game against Burnley. I've been invited by one of the team's directors and will be sitting in the director's box - the first time I've ever done that.

    Mike - best leave those Claret and Blue colours behind and restrict yourself to restrained applause as Burnley take the lead and go on to win, as they probably will.
    Enjoy the pork pie and cucumber sandwiches at half time!
    “pork pie and cucumber sandwiches”?????
    Yes indeed, but not necessarily between the same two pieces of bread you understand. It's a Brighton delicacy doncha know?
    I did wonder. Quite fancy a nice pork pie and some piccalilli. Think I’ll have to have a wander down to the butchers.
    I once had a pork pie with piccalilli in Piccadilly.

    (I may have just made that bit up.)

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    Estobar said:

    Hola
    O/T there is a very good piece on Nate Silver's 538 about Donald Trump's chances. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

    Well worthy reading

    It seems strange to me how Nate Silver places so much blind belief on Betfair, a betting exchange located thousands and thousands of miles distant from American shores and played, by definition and by law, principally by non-Americans, whose knowledge of US politics and elections is somewhat limited.
    I see no mention is made of the likes of Ladbrokes (and Corals),who through their expert Shadsy, really do know their political betting onions and who have Trump largely unmoved over the past few days at 1.44, compared with Betfair's 1.82.
    One or other of these is calling this contest very wrongly.
    What I would really liked to have heard from Nate Silver is - if not Trump then whom as between Cruz and Kasich? I would rather hope it would be the latter, having backed him as far out as 200/1 and having been largely ridiculed for doing so by a number of so-called experts on PB.com. Are you listening David Herdson and others?
    I don't think I ever ridiculed you for taking a 200/1 bet on Kasich. There'd always have been trading value there at the least given Rubio's weaknesses. If I did then you may well have the last word and at a minimum are in a good position to trade out at a sizable profit.

    I've certainly been critical of those who've been downbeat on Trump's chances, and not without reason. Even now, I think the betting markets underrate his position. But I did do a piece last week on why Kasich *should* be backed. Admittedly, the Cruz scandal hasn't taken off like I thought it would but it's still lingering like a bad smell. If Trump is to be stopped at the convention, Kasich seems to me to be the obvious person to do it.
    Kasich would need all Cruz's delegates to back him, that is very unlikely
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087

    Well, it's like swallowing poison but I'm now backing Remain. The garbled incoherences Leave are coming out with are just too much to bear. They're advocating Corbynite welfarism and trade protectionism for the love of God! I'm keeping an open mind and may reassess when Leave have got their act together. A sad day, but in the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu, 'perhaps these people aren't ready for freedom yet'.

    Fundamentally Leave's problem is that most of their supporters believe that the EU is at the root of all the country's problems and that once we leave we will enter Boris's fabled sunny uplands. Reality is completely different as the steel case is proving.
    Isn't Port Talbot happening even though we're IN the EU?
    There is an argument, although I’m not totally sure it’s right that Port Talbot would’t be in quite the mess it is if the UK hadn’t prevented the UK from taking action.

    As I’ve suggested before, I’d be very interested to know when the blocking started.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    HYUFD said:

    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over

    Yet, as I understand yesterdays news, UK government has been behind moves to slow down or even block tariffs. So even if we leave EU we will still have a free-trade first UK government. Frankly it is another example of Leave promising something that won't happen.
    Which is why UKIP would combine it with a pro-tariff policy
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    On topic.
    The LDs reduced to 2 MSPs in Wales would be very bad for their "fightback". With Scotland also looking like a further decline in representatives for them and possibly in the London Assembly as well, Farron could be staring at a position where he has lost representatives in all of the 3 big battles of the May elections. Of course due to distractions elsewhere for Labour and the Conservatives, little attention will probably fall on Farron but he cannot claim to be making ground after taking over from Clegg. Instead he will be "managing the decline".

    Might the Lib Dems make gains in the local elections in England outside London?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Fingers crossed
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Sad. Wish you well.
    Thank you.
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Hope you got some resolution on the flat, by the way. Best wishes on that front.

    Thank you, tho' it may be overtaken by events: health problems have recently worsened and priorities may have to be rejigged.
    Sad. Wish you well.
    Thank you.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over

    Yet, as I understand yesterdays news, UK government has been behind moves to slow down or even block tariffs. So even if we leave EU we will still have a free-trade first UK government. Frankly it is another example of Leave promising something that won't happen.
    Which is why UKIP would combine it with a pro-tariff policy
    Plucky little Britain again. Us against the world.

    They’ll be bringing back rationing next! (Although if we all ate less ......)
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    matt said:

    MP_SE said:

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yawn.
    Why yawn other than it runs counter to the anti-EU hysteria which dominates comments here?
    I'm starting to see why the likes of Dave and Ozzy are so keen on this EU business. They clearly see that they have the ability to forge new alliances and counter the old Franco-German hegemony, levering Europe towards a new and brighter entrepreneurial spirit. (Of course, Maggie saw this when she advocated EU expansion all those years ago.) No surprise that lofty public-school types should like such leverage - it's like British Empire mk II.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over

    Yet, as I understand yesterdays news, UK government has been behind moves to slow down or even block tariffs. So even if we leave EU we will still have a free-trade first UK government. Frankly it is another example of Leave promising something that won't happen.
    Which is why UKIP would combine it with a pro-tariff policy
    Plucky little Britain again. Us against the world.

    They’ll be bringing back rationing next! (Although if we all ate less ......)
    The Treaty of Rome is a 1950s throwback too, you know :lol:
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    FWIW , I think the projection given above by David Herdson courtesy Roger Scully is too pessimistic for Labour and too optimistic for UKIP in Wales . The imposition of Hamilton , Reckless and others on the UKIP list candidates will have an adverse effect on their vote share but I still expect them to get 5 list seats .
    My guesstimate is Lab 30 Plaid 13 Con 10 UKIP 5 LD 2 leaving Labour just short ( again ) of an overall majority ) .

    The projection follows directly from the poll. Clearly, as always, there's a question of how to translate votes into seats and UKIP in particular raises the questions about where it's coming and from whom. For reasons I don't know, I can't find the poll on the YouGov website.

    What I don't understand is how Labour can reach 30 seats without a vote share well up into the high thirties? A drop in constituency vote will lose them seats and they won't get them back on the lists.
    Labour's polling in Wales seems to be working very efficiently when translated to seats but on wafer thin leads. If the polling (as usual) is over estimating Labour, we could see a dramatic drop into the low 20s in seats for Labour.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,470


    matt said:

    MP_SE said:

    Britain leading in Europe, not marginalised or ignored:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/716180673216778240

    Yawn.
    Why yawn other than it runs counter to the anti-EU hysteria which dominates comments here?
    I'm starting to see why the likes of Dave and Ozzy are so keen on this EU business. They clearly see that they have the ability to forge new alliances and counter the old Franco-German hegemony, levering Europe towards a new and brighter entrepreneurial spirit. (Of course, Maggie saw this when she advocated EU expansion all those years ago.) No surprise that lofty public-school types should like such leverage - it's like British Empire mk II.
    The English language is official throughout the EU (um, along with about 20 other languages - a bit like India, I suppose...).
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,087

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    UKIP may well press for tariffs to be imposed on cheap Chinese steel much as Trump is pressing for and Leave will inevitably press the case that cannot be done while the UK remains in the EU.

    Long-term though the future of British Steel lies in high-quality products, cheap mass production is over

    Yet, as I understand yesterdays news, UK government has been behind moves to slow down or even block tariffs. So even if we leave EU we will still have a free-trade first UK government. Frankly it is another example of Leave promising something that won't happen.
    Which is why UKIP would combine it with a pro-tariff policy
    Plucky little Britain again. Us against the world.

    They’ll be bringing back rationing next! (Although if we all ate less ......)
    The Treaty of Rome is a 1950s throwback too, you know :lol:
    And because it was suspected of being “Romish” in the religious sense caused a great deal of heart-searching among elederly Liberal voters of my acquaintance in 1975.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2016

    Well, it's like swallowing poison but I'm now backing Remain. The garbled incoherences Leave are coming out with are just too much to bear. They're advocating Corbynite welfarism and trade protectionism for the love of God! ....

    Are you in the main social class battleground for the referendum the Labour working class GE15 voters? The Mrs Duffy electorate?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,124
    edited April 2016

    valleyboy said:

    Efforts have been made to attract major employes, but few go further West than Swansea.

    Same with the planned Great Western rail electrification, it's going to end at Swansea.
    Given the cost overruns, I can see arguments about whether it even gets that far, and who foots the excess costs for the valley lines electrification. It took them long enough to agree the original costs split ...
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/electrification-debate-future-valleys-line-6863618
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    Can you imaging the harrumphing in the Mail and the Telegraph if Cameron had nodded through these EU steel tariffs and the cost of 4x4s had rocketed?
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    On topic.
    The LDs reduced to 2 MSPs in Wales would be very bad for their "fightback". With Scotland also looking like a further decline in representatives for them and possibly in the London Assembly as well, Farron could be staring at a position where he has lost representatives in all of the 3 big battles of the May elections. Of course due to distractions elsewhere for Labour and the Conservatives, little attention will probably fall on Farron but he cannot claim to be making ground after taking over from Clegg. Instead he will be "managing the decline".

    Might the Lib Dems make gains in the local elections in England outside London?
    Yes. But what often happens is the big battleground elections dominate the coverage and less attention is paid to the councillors.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,124

    Can you imaging the harrumphing in the Mail and the Telegraph if Cameron had nodded through these EU steel tariffs and the cost of 4x4s had rocketed?

    It's one of these situation where I've no idea what the right thing to do is, either for the locals or the nation.

    I'm not even sure if there is a *right* answer: the choices are all poor.

    What are the unions and workers calling for?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,429

    On topic.
    The LDs reduced to 2 MSPs in Wales would be very bad for their "fightback". With Scotland also looking like a further decline in representatives for them and possibly in the London Assembly as well, Farron could be staring at a position where he has lost representatives in all of the 3 big battles of the May elections. Of course due to distractions elsewhere for Labour and the Conservatives, little attention will probably fall on Farron but he cannot claim to be making ground after taking over from Clegg. Instead he will be "managing the decline".

    All four, quite possibly. The Lib Dems will need to match their 16% NEV from 2012 (or target more effectively) if they're not to make a net loss of councillors in England.
This discussion has been closed.