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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing
With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic. While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date. David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU. A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up…
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http://stv.tv/news/politics/1345988-scottish-labour-have-no-one-to-blame-but-themselves-for-their-decline/
It didn't work.
There's also the problem that the British economy has done better in spite of rather than because of the EU, with its growth now far stronger than any of its comparable continental rivals, with perhaps the exception of Germany.
And that has happened at a time when the proportion of the UK's external trade with the EU has continued to shrink, and the EU global share has shrunk absolutely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35781613
Kendal Strickland & Fell (Cumbria) result:
LDEM: 59.9% (+7.8)
LAB: 17.2% (-9.7)
CON: 9.7% (-0.5)
GRN: 7.2% (+7.2)
UKIP: 6.0% (-3.9)
Maidenhead Riverside (Windsor & Maidenhead) result:
CON: 53.4% (+4.5)
LDEM: 23.2% (+7.7)
IND: 9.5% (+9.5)
LAB: 8.4% (-4.3)
UKIP: 5.5% (-5.7)
UNCOMMITTED WINS !
Also applies to the lib dems. A thoroughly disgraceful tactic of nationalism which has bitten both parties. The only way out is independence to bring sanity to the situation.
Perhaps they are rubbish councillors, personally I see Ukip's work is done in securing a referendum, I wouldn't let them near any of the debates.
Rise of the Lib Dems is very interesting, said before that there will be recriminations after the referendum and there will be a vast centre ground to be occupied.
Here is his book:
http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Outsiders-Contested-Republican-Convention/dp/0692630163#reader_0692630163
If you were wondering about the Hadron collider , well this is a quick but very interesting 360degree vid. tour.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d_OeQxoKocU
If this is right then the remaining UKIP voters would be more ex Labour in character.
Trump 43 .. Rubio 24 .. Cruz 21 .. Kasich 10
Florida - Trafalgar Gp
Trump 42 .. Rubio 23 .. Cruz 21 .. Kasich 11
Ultimately this article has made me feel more sceptical not less. Is it really continental Europe's objective to do whatever the Germans say to avoid a repeat of being divided and the Germans trying to take over?
I was convinced on the positive basis of the Common Market which is barely mentioned here. Because ultimately the EU is moving away from the Common Market as it's basis. Delors has destroyed the EEC for the UK.
Does this matter? Arguably it does. Our relationship with the EU from the beginning has been transactional and narrow minded. Every political leader is measured on what he or she can "get out" of the EU, what qualifications, opt outs, exceptions and hesitations he or she has achieved. I have little doubt that for committed Europeans it must all get somewhat tiresome. Cameron's deal, of course, was more of the same.
This attitude of cohabitation with an obsessive eye on the joint bank account means the referendum will change relatively little. We may vote to remain but it will be grudging and half hearted with every possibility that we might leave in the huff later. I fear in many respects this gets us the worst of both worlds. It might have been different if the French had not vetoed our membership at an early stage. But it is as it is and we don't really like it.
It will be a long road back though.
Big surge in yes support after that ad aired during IndyRef.
Miss Plato, a nice idea but I'll still believe it when I see it. And leaving the EU is a bigger step than (temporarily...) rejecting a treaty.
Mr. Royale, disagree on Welby. Even stopped clocks are right twice a day.
What it means I have no idea, but if it turns into a contested convention it just got a whole lot worse for the Republican National Convention.
I've put £2 on Rand Paul @ 1000.0, highly unlikely but who knows what sort of guerrilla campaign might be waged on the floor. I'll claim a moral victory if he becomes VP or something.
Which is, of course, precisely what BSE are campaigning for.
See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_England_devolution_referendums,_2004
An interesting comment on the BBC report:
' BBC political editor Andrew Marr said many in the No Camp were Eurosceptic campaigners and ministers would need to reflect on the lessons for its referendum on the new European constitution. '
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3984387.stm
As yet I’ve seen no figues for the costs of providing the necessary support staff, and I I’m not aware of any discussions with the representatives of such staff. Just how does Hunt think it’s going to work?
I have wanted out of the EU for a long time and support the grammar school in every town stance, but I was appalled at Farage in the GE debates with the HIV disgrace, and I fear letting them near the EU debates will be counter productive, to say the least.
Young Cameron is fast becoming the whipping boy of the G7
First he has to suck up to Angela, then he Kowtows to Li, Francois threatens to duff him up if he gets the wrong answer and now Obama says he's a useless pillock.
Lucky the Mexicans arent in it or he'd be used as a pinata.
It brought it all back what a total bucket of self interested sleeze our Tony is.
Mandy next I hope.
I put that in quotes as the Zoomers on my timeline seem to think it was actually recorded near Windsor
That said, the British political ethos has become dominated by negativity. The last election was about whether you should be more scared of Labour wrecking the economy and being slaves to the SNP or Tories destroying the NHS and giving all your money to bankers. The media only think negative arguments are fun to report about, and the public responds accordingly.
Thanks again to Speedy for his ever-pithy summaries from last night! Interesting to see Trump morphing into the deal-making principle-free pragmatist that is probably his genuine self.
Mr Meeks is danger of becoming a Mr Reeks as he wails against all those wanting out of the crumbling fortress EU Europe. The only thing to know is that if the UK remains in the EU it will, in the not so distant future, cease to be a Nation State. If that is your desire, well and good, however if you want to live in a free'er society and land: vote out.
Just because there are problems that can be dropped on any change to try to slow it or derail it, such as the producers don't accept the need to change as it disrupts the comfortable and rewarding lifestyle they have / it will be unsafe (delete depending on your viewpoint), the momentum for change to a seven day service is greater than the demand for inertia. A seven day NHS is on the way. As such the overlord (Hunt) will push it, the user (all of us) will come to expect it and demand it, and the producers will eventually accept it and it will be bedded in as the norm.
In the longer term GP services as we know them will also be discarded. They are too expensive as a gateway into the Health Service and create massive inefficiencies, duplication and costs. In time will be seen as a quaint slice of history that worked in the 1950s to 1900s and then became one of the problems holding healthcare back. It will take a few years, but it will come.
While on the NHS, radio 5 had a snippet interviewing expats in Spain about the EU referendum (where Embassy is trying to enroll more voters). They were saying how the Spanish Health care is 'Second to None' I have no idea what model they use in Spain.
Maybe it helps Trump with evangelicals? Also, getting endorsements from defeated candidates must make it harder to depict Trump as a lone-wolf whacko.
Trump did what was needed in the debate, hope he edges Ohio because Kasich showed how extreme his foreign policy views are again. Fails the Nixonian don't give the bastards a reason to assassinate or impeach you test.
Kobach remains my tip.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo40X_PUaDg
Contrary to what PM saying now, 11 MPs to @timesletters explained why UK influence on EU future has been given away https://t.co/kuZrbH007F
Cameron's really tested to destruction the theory that fawning towards others and handing out money to every country he visits wins friends and influence.
It doesn't.
It makes you look weak and leads to you being despised.
http://nuk-tnl-deck-prod-static.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/f09696910bdd874a99cd74c8f05b5c44.html
Blair already tested to destruction the idea that fawning and handing out money wins friends and influence in Europe, handing over a large part of our rebate for some nebulous promise of CAP reform that never arrived.
And yes internationally preople respect strength and despise weakness.
It's cockfighting and the biggest cocks win.
It is like Cameron trying to debate with the leader of the Monster Raving Loony party, whose only answer to every question is Free Owls.
You would think after all these debates they would have come up with a solution to it, but they just seem completely unable to get anywhere against the "Free Owls" (or in Trump case, "as a businessman I will do a deal that is better than any other deal ever done and make America great again and that will solve every problem, Thank You").
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Also, it is scary how dodgy a lot of the candidates knowledge is e.g. Kaisch going on about the EU making the wrong decision to reject Turkey's previous application to join the EU. And nobody picked him up on it.
I'll will pay more attention to the type of primary in future - Trump and Sanders both seem to benefit substantially when non-party registered voters can enter their primaries.
Most odd is when people who briefly said that costs outweighed benefits just before renegotiation now say benefits outweigh costs with virtually no change. Why don't they just admit their support for EU is ideological??
Perhaps they just gave in to shut you up and change the subject ! (Smiley face)
The Chinese have a more or less non-GP system - nearly everyone goes to the hospital if they feel ill. Problem is that you have to drive further to get there, see a random different doctor each time and tie up specialists dealing with trivia. They are keen to move to a GP system and I've given lots of seminars on the issue to visiting delegations, but they run into a wall of public scepticism - "if he was any good he'd be in the hospital, why is he living in my village?"
It's the sort of issue where being a dictatorship doesn't really help - hard to force people into a change of attitude. I told them that we insist that only A&E patients can go to a hospital directly and everyone else is required to go through a GP. Some of them looked shocked and said that seems very authoritarian...
The general theory is that non-party voters better represent independent or swing minded voters who will help decide in November.
However Corbyn did better with non-members and would almost certainly have lost if the vote was restricted to members who were already members before Ed resigned.
The nature of who the non-party voters are is of crucial importance for November. Corbyn's entryists were not the kind needed to win a General Election - are Trumps?
The GOP really will self-destruct if they change the rules purely to deny the sole and obvious winner his prize. Besides, Trump will very likely win an overall majority of delegates in addition to the eight state majorities.
It's over, barring some improbable results next Tuesday, or a Black Swan taking Trump out...
Interesting thought about GP’s. In fact they are much “older” than suggested and arise from a couple of, perhaps quintessentially, British compromises, In the rest of Europe the traditional apothecary morphed into todays’ pharmacist and physicians diagnosed and prescribed. In Britain, or more specifically England and Wales it was decided in 1703 (the Rose case) that apothecaries could diagnose, so long as they only charged for the medicine, supplied and physicians dispense so long as they didn’t charge for the medicine.
All went OK for about a century until in the early 19th Century the physicians made a take over and, under the terms of the Apothecaries Act, requited a training similar to that of physicians for apothecaries, who consequently evolved into today’s GPs.
British pharmacists evolved from a merger of the residium of the apothecaries and “chemists and druggists”, who only sold medicines and gave no advice.
That may be so. But it's not as if the Leave campaign are distinguishing themselves with the compelling quality of their "proper arguments".