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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another big night of WH2016 primaries

SystemSystem Posts: 11,689
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another big night of WH2016 primaries

Real Clear Politics scorecard at 0150 gmt pic.twitter.com/Imfdr1sces

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  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Winner: Trump
    OK: Kasich, Cruz
    Loser: Rubio
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Projections coming up...
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Trump ~50% in Mississippi would hand him a substantial advantage in delegates.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Winner: Trump
    OK: Kasich, Cruz
    Loser: Rubio

    I agree.
    But keep an eye on Kasich in Michigan, Cruz may beat him for second.
    If Kasich gets 3rd in Michigan, add him on the losers column.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    edited March 2016
    Cruz projected 2nd! (Decision Desk)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fox projects Trump wins Michigan.
    Fox cannot project second place.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    21% in Michigan GOP

    Trump 38%
    Kasich 26.3%
    Cruz 22.2%
    Rubio 9%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep

    30% in Michigan Dems
    Sanders 50.7%
    Clinton 47.3%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    If Sanders wins Michigan, then he ain't going to win the Nomination BUT he could stretch this out for quite a while.

    There are no Deep South states with huge black populations left for Clinton. (EDIT: Well there's North Carolina, but apart from that....)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,080
    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Winner: Trump
    OK: Kasich, Cruz
    Loser: Rubio

    I agree.
    But keep an eye on Kasich in Michigan, Cruz may beat him for second.
    If Kasich gets 3rd in Michigan, add him on the losers column.
    If Trump wins Idaho too you can put all the rest in the losers column.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Rubio 4.6% in Mississippi!!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN exit poll for Michigan, if it's for any use now:

    Trump 37.5
    Cruz 26
    Kasich 24
    Rubio 8.5

    Sanders 52
    Hillary 47
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    DecisiondeskHQ has put the tick next to Clinton even though she is behind !
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Danny565 said:

    If Sanders wins Michigan, then he ain't going to win the Nomination BUT he could stretch this out for quite a while.

    There are no Deep South states with huge black populations left for Clinton.

    But there are still a good number of very big Democrat states that are trending very heavily to HRC

    Sanders is enjoying his final months in the spotlight - but at what cost?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    DecisiondeskHQ has put the tick next to Clinton even though she is behind !

    Well the results and the exit poll so far say they are wrong.
    It's still too early.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Next week's Democrat primaries are in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, N Carolina, Ohio.

    Clinton should landslide it in N Carolina, win Florida comfortably and probably should take Illinois. Maybe Sanders has the edge in Missouri and possibly Ohio?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    HRC will catch up 15000 from Macomb and the remainder of Oakland I think.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    DecisiondeskHQ has put the tick next to Clinton even though she is behind !

    I've lost money twice, sort of three times, assuming Clinton comes back. This time I've kept it in my pocket :)
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    DecisiondeskHQ has put the tick next to Clinton even though she is behind !

    Dewey beats Sanders?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    oxfordsimon said:

    Danny565 said:

    If Sanders wins Michigan, then he ain't going to win the Nomination BUT he could stretch this out for quite a while.

    There are no Deep South states with huge black populations left for Clinton.

    But there are still a good number of very big Democrat states that are trending very heavily to HRC
    Based on the polls? But the polls showed her winning Michigan comfortably.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    HRC will catch up 15000 from Macomb and the remainder of Oakland I think.

    That's not enough, Sanders is already 10000 ahead and with the rest of the state he can hold a lead.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HRC will catch up 15000 from Macomb and the remainder of Oakland I think.

    That's not enough, Sanders is already 10000 ahead and with the rest of the state he can hold a lead.
    you can get 3.2 n Sanders...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Still looks close for the Democrats. Macomb is going heavily for Clinton, as expected, and should on current trends deliver her 10,000 net, putting her marginally in front. But the suburbs and rural areas are going heavily for Sanders and quite a few still have to report. Wayne is the other downtown area, and the first 2% has Sanders a nose ahead there - more prosperous, more white, or just an untypical 2%?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Taxi for Little Marco.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NickPalmer said:

    Still looks close for the Democrats. Macomb is going heavily for Clinton, as expected, and should on current trends deliver her 10,000 net, putting her marginally in front. But the suburbs and rural areas are going heavily for Sanders and quite a few still have to report. Wayne is the other downtown area, and the first 2% has Sanders a nose ahead there - more prosperous, more white, or just an untypical 2%?

    Wayne county for Sanders is cancelling Macomb for Hillary.

    I'm close to call Michigan for Sanders, what a surprise, oh Trump is preparing to speak.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Sanders now pulling away in Wayne with 6% counted. I wonder if DecisionDesk has got it wrong - Clinton can't win with (more or less) Macomb county alone.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is talking about all those who attacked him, and is thanking the people for his victory.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2016
    Watch Trump versus 50% in Mississippi. Although you don't get the clean sweep, if you get that in each Congressional District (there are four) you sweep those delegates.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    NickPalmer said:

    Sanders now pulling away in Wayne with 6% counted. I wonder if DecisionDesk has got it wrong - Clinton can't win with (more or less) Macomb county alone.

    What's interesting is the guy on CNN was saying Wayne County was very African-American. I guess there's maybe a big difference between how pro-Clinton Southern blacks are compared to Northern blacks?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Michigan called for Trump by CNN
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    edited March 2016
    CNN Michigan 26% in GOP

    Trump 37.7% (projected winner)
    Kasich 26.1%
    Cruz 22.6%
    Rubio 9%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    He is now how important it is to re-elect GOP Senators, clearly he is pitching for an olive branch.

    He thanked Paul Ryan!!
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Not happening for Hillary?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Sanders now pulling away in Wayne with 6% counted. I wonder if DecisionDesk has got it wrong - Clinton can't win with (more or less) Macomb county alone.

    What's interesting is the guy on CNN was saying Wayne County was very African-American. I guess there's maybe a big difference between how pro-Clinton Southern blacks are compared to Northern blacks?
    Starting to look like it, though we're still only on 14% in Macomb (where Clinton leads by 2%) and 7% in Wayne (where Sanders is ahead at present).
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    NickPalmer said:

    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Sanders now pulling away in Wayne with 6% counted. I wonder if DecisionDesk has got it wrong - Clinton can't win with (more or less) Macomb county alone.

    What's interesting is the guy on CNN was saying Wayne County was very African-American. I guess there's maybe a big difference between how pro-Clinton Southern blacks are compared to Northern blacks?
    Starting to look like it, though we're still only on 14% in Macomb (where Clinton leads by 2%) and 7% in Wayne (where Sanders is ahead at present).
    Macomb is majority african american yet she only leads by 2.
    And she is behind in Wayne which is hispanic heavy.

    Bad news for Hillary.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HRC will catch up 15000 from Macomb and the remainder of Oakland I think.

    That's not enough, Sanders is already 10000 ahead and with the rest of the state he can hold a lead.
    you can get 3.2 n Sanders...
    should have taken it :) now 1.5
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HRC will catch up 15000 from Macomb and the remainder of Oakland I think.

    That's not enough, Sanders is already 10000 ahead and with the rest of the state he can hold a lead.
    you can get 3.2 n Sanders...
    should have taken it :) now 1.5
    Give me 10 minutes and if it holds I will call it for Sanders.

    Trump Steaks meanwhile in Florida.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sanders 5% ahead with 32% counted.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Mississippi is the last big blowout for Hillary. Terrain gets much better for Bernie now. If the whole black vote was a Dixie black vote thing......... WELL.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    I'll call it for Sanders at this point. Hillary doesn't have enough margin in Macomb (2%), with 14% counted, and Sanders is winning nearly everywhere else.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Wayne just moved for Hillary big time.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    MikeL said:

    Wayne just moved for Hillary big time.

    What datasource are you using
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Wayne just moved for Hillary big time.

    What datasource are you using
    CNN.

    Wayne just moved back a bit - now 53/46 Clinton - 19% in.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Which leaves an interesting issue. I don't think Sanders has really been tested by a media assault like Clinton and Trump - he's got away with the "grumpy but lovable granddad" image, even though he has Corbynish things in his past which don't worry me but I'd think would turn off many US voters (e.g. he decided to take his honeymoon in the Soviet Union). Does Clinton start bashing him, and alienating his voters for the General, or does she keep her nerve?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    MikeL said:

    Wayne just moved for Hillary big time.

    That's 19% in with Hillary 2000 votes in the lead, Sanders is leading with 21000 votes in the whole of the state.

    Trump thanks Charles Krauthammer!!
    He is very generous with his defeated enemies tonight.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Betfair's lack of liqudity has the Dem result in MI as both Clinton and Sanders easily odds on to win...
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Time to go big in Florida on Trump. Polling lead, and a complete Rubio collapse so far - only truly wooden spoon delegates.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    Great night for Trump with comfortable victories in Mississippi and Michigan, on the Dem side looks like Sanders has scored an upset in Michigan, so he and the Donald must be the main winners of today's races, goodnight
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LMAO, Trump's streams of consciousness are always hilarious.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited March 2016
    I do hope Bernie holds now as I've just spent £50 reversing my big red POTUS on him (There are many more Michigans coming up than Mississippis) and have £19 to win £29.60 in MI.

    Can analyse the Bernie/Hillary position properly tommorow, but Betfair tends to get carried away with this sort of thing :)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Rubio would be losing his deposit in Mississippi if this was UK.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Need to get up for work before long so I'll call it a night. Rubio's finished - not sure we have anything else definite at all.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Bernie now 5 points ahead.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited March 2016
    NickPalmer said:

    Need to get up for work before long so I'll call it a night. Rubio's finished - not sure we have anything else definite at all.

    Ugh just as I covered him too :p
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm calling Michigan for Sanders.

    What an upset, I think it was the debate, he was aggressive against Hillary, and people like to be aggressive against those who they don't like.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Trump is going to get more votes than Hillary in Michigan.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    I have this hunch Kasich will soon be second favourite, largely based on him being the only acceptable (to gop establishment) alternative to Trump.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    I think Trump may get more than 50 in Mississippi, there is even a suburban county with only 18% in but Trump has 81% there.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    So much for Nate's 99% HRC MI !!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump makes a call to unity:
    "Lets come together"
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    So much for Nate's 99% HRC MI !!

    Get on Bernie for Ohio :D V similar to Michigan but a little more white.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    So much for Nate's 99% HRC MI !!

    Sanders got more than 1/3 of the black vote in Michigan, it's a record for him.
    If he had those numbers in S.Carolina he would have won.

    Something changed in the democratic race, Sanders been a bit rude on Hillary in the debate may have given him some of the Trump factor.

    Detroit is like as black as the south yet he is only a couple of points behind.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Trump comes to the stage in Jupiter for his press conference and he has displays of Trump Water, Trump Steaks, Trump Wine and Trump Magazine, all of which Romney said in his robocall were defunct. He also mentioned Trump University which will be restarted after the court case.

    That's up there with his presentation to Rory last year - frustrated McIlroy throws his club in the lake. Trump hires a diver to retrieve it and makes a formal presentation to Rory on the tee the next day in a presentation box.

    Campaign Carl Cameron gets good interplay with Trump.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Sanders now leads in Macomb 49/48.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So much for Nate's 99% HRC MI !!

    Sanders got more than 1/3 of the black vote in Michigan, it's a record for him.
    If he had those numbers in S.Carolina he would have won.

    Something changed in the democratic race, Sanders been a bit rude on Hillary in the debate may have given him some of the Trump factor.

    Detroit is like as black as the south yet he is only a couple of points behind.
    Maybe black people aren't the homogenous globule all the political analysts think they are ?

    My model is working better for racial fit in MS than the polling model though !

    We've only had data from Dixie so far....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    MikeL said:

    Sanders now leads in Macomb 49/48.

    https://twitter.com/Sam_Frizell/status/706980355878813696

    If Sanders looked and sounded like JFK he would be winning all elections by a landslide.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Unexpectedly dramatic night
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Trump:

    "I think Lindsey Graham is a nice guy"

    "I have no problem with Mitt Romney, I can get along with him"
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    Andrew said:

    I have this hunch Kasich will soon be second favourite, largely based on him being the only acceptable (to gop establishment) alternative to Trump.

    Kasich will be gone in a week when he loses Ohio to Trump, leaving it Trump v Cruz
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Speedy said:

    Trump:

    "I think Lindsey Graham is a nice guy"

    "I have no problem with Mitt Romney, I can get along with him"

    Trump will be hoping his establishment opponents break ranks, as when Christie came over? A little love-bombing can't hurt.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    Trump:

    "I think Lindsey Graham is a nice guy"

    "I have no problem with Mitt Romney, I can get along with him"

    My favorite was when Trump complimented Fox News' Megyn Kelly, which lead to a cutaway of her she clearly wasn't 100% ready for.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Wanderer said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump:

    "I think Lindsey Graham is a nice guy"

    "I have no problem with Mitt Romney, I can get along with him"

    Trump will be hoping his establishment opponents break ranks, as when Christie came over? A little love-bombing can't hurt.
    He wants to end this race now, and the GOP needs to too.
    The longer the war goes on the more damaged the GOP comes out of the primaries.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    @Danny565 Check your vanilla email. If you're not a betting man let me know so I can post to someone else.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,029
    Speedy said:

    Wanderer said:

    Speedy said:

    Trump:

    "I think Lindsey Graham is a nice guy"

    "I have no problem with Mitt Romney, I can get along with him"

    Trump will be hoping his establishment opponents break ranks, as when Christie came over? A little love-bombing can't hurt.
    He wants to end this race now, and the GOP needs to too.
    The longer the war goes on the more damaged the GOP comes out of the primaries.
    It looks like after next Tuesday it will be Trump v Cruz and Clinton v Sanders head to head until the end of April when New York and Pennsylvania vote
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    The southern tsunami is at an end for Bernie now.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Oops, have we been hasty about Wayne?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Michigan turns - Clinton now favourite - just 9k behind.

    Clinton leading in Wayne 60/38 - with 46% in (57% in across whole state).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Balls
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Balls

    Sanders is ahead by 12K, Hillary can close it by another 23K in Detroit.
    The pattern is that Sanders is increasing his lead slowly and Detroit closes it again.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Gosh, got too cocky :(
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    ffs, I need to get to sleep :)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Margin for Sanders rising again, 15K now.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Macomb is still only 23% in on CNN and evenly split. Will it break for Hillary?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Sanders leading by 18K now.
    20K now.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Wanderer said:

    Macomb is still only 23% in on CNN and evenly split. Will it break for Hillary?

    Just gone 32%
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    On the GOP side, Cruz is almost surpassing Kasich now for second.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Sanders now 22K ahead.
    Hillary can still close it by 24K from Detroit.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Matched bets
    Order by matched date
    Back (Bet For)
    Odds
    Stake
    Profit

    Hillary Clinton 2.14 £5.00 £5.70
    Bernie Sanders 2.64 £19.00 £31.16

    Hmm

    What to do..
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Speedy said:

    On the GOP side, Cruz is almost surpassing Kasich now for second.

    That's it for Kasich's presidential hopes.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Matched bets
    Order by matched date
    Back (Bet For)
    Odds
    Stake
    Profit

    Hillary Clinton 2.14 £5.00 £5.70
    Bernie Sanders 2.64 £19.00 £31.16

    Hmm

    What to do..

    Math says that Hillary will close that 22K Sanders lead with Detroit and over turn it by a margin of 2K, but Sanders will keep adding to his lead with areas outside of Detroit.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Sanders now has a 23K lead, Hillary can close it by 24K from Detroit.
    Sanders now 24K ahead.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    I'll make a fiver either way.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    But if Bernie wins makes my lay of HRC at 1.14 in Ohio look great.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Sanders 24k ahead, Hillary can close it by 21k from Detroit.
    Sanders now 26k ahead.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sanders leading by 27k now.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    I've made a few betting errors, but Betfair is looking nice and green !
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sanders now leading by 33k.
    The networks will call it soon.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The statisticians are on to how crap the NBC/WSJ polls are:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/707413152779137024
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fox starts the talk of whether Rubio has to drop out or not.
    Meanwhile Sanders is safe in Michigan, a 4% lead with 14% left.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sanders has got this
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Wanderer said:

    Sanders has got this

    I called it for Sanders hours ago.
This discussion has been closed.