That's a really old poll, I expect cruz will win comfortably.
Although primaries are better for Trump, I agree.
It's PR-ish (20% threshold) anyhow.
I think that poll, whatever the actual outcome, puts Trump over the 1237 line for the first time in my model. Just waiting for Huffpost to make it into a CSV file...
How do you assess his %chances of the nomination now?
80%? I'd put it higher but for the possibility of some Black Swan event terminating his candidacy.
Or Trump just saying to the GOP. "Tell you what, you put up the Canadian Penguin, or Rubio the Boy Wonder, and I'll take them on and the Queen of the Grifters, and still win..."
I would agree that there's little appetite among Labour activists for voting Leave: at the couple of meetings I went to where we discussed it, I was one of only a few who was even on the fence.
HOWEVER, even though most were planning to vote Remain, there was next to no enthusiasm for it. A few freely admitted that they didn't really care about the issue, but just couldn't stomach being on the same side as Farage. Most others said they thought on balance it didn't really make much sense to Leave and that they couldn't see any good reasons for it, but at the same time there was little passion for the EU and few people said they'd be up for doing some canvassing for the "Remain" side. Maybe it's different in a more London/Guardianish CLP, but in our circle the EU just doesn't get our blood pumping.
Once I'm done campaigning for Zac I'm going to get involved with Vote Leave, but for now the greater danger is the thought of Khan ruining our fair city. No use leaving the EU only to see Khan tear it all down anyway.
I've delivered 450 for Vote Leave, over the past couple of days. More this week.
Sorry to worry Remainers - who seem to dominate the Thread-leaders - but I reckon many Labour voters will be asking which side Cameron-Osborne are for, and will vote the opposite. Simples.
Wishful think I'm afraid. The dislike of UKIP and Farage is far far greater in my experience. I was a member till Corbyn arrived and I literally do not know one person who intends to vote LEAVE. Granted there is not much enthusiasm for the EU but by June 23rd I expect Labour voters will vote at least 70-30 for Remain and probably nearer 80-20 if I were putting money on it.
As I said upthread, it will depend on the types of Labour voters. Greater London, core cities, Scotland, Meryside, they'll vote massively for Remain. Hull, Blackburn, Sandwell, South Yorkshire (outside Sheffield), South Tyneside, it'll be rather different..
Based on what evidence? Despite a number of false dawns Labour have repulsed UKIP pretty successfully. When Labour and the unions focus their fire on UKIP as they did in the Oldham by-election they wilt. The same will happen in the referendum once the campaigning hots up in a month or two I am confident Labour voters will break at least 70-30 for remain.
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Or Trump just saying to the GOP. "Tell you what, you put up the Canadian Penguin, or Rubio the Boy Wonder, and I'll take them on and the Queen of the Grifters, and still win..."