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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I'd love to know the process behind the designation of lead Leave slipping a fortnight. Good job I'm not a cynical person...

    I'm not a cynical person either. I expect that one of the potential applicants made representations to them saying they weren't ready to submit their application.

    On the question of whether the EC will designate one of the Leave campaigns: I'm quite certain they will. It would be a travesty to have only one side having official status.

    (Personally I think the whole process is barmy, but it's enshrined in law so we're stuck with it).
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Mr Nabavi at 10.29
    If Leave have made such a spectacular pigs ear of their campaigning strategy and their alliances, then what are we to make of their competence when it comes to their assessment of the fundamental argument?
    I would give the money to the group with the most stupid tie.

    PS
    As for project fear ... This accusation is a real laugh coming from a group that is reduced to scaremongering about millions of Muslims flooding into Britain, when in fact these particular migrants have no rights at all.
  • On the subject of the process for designating the official campaigns, the Electoral Commission has published an update on the timetable and process:

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/197773/EU-Campaigner-Update-6-February-2016.pdf

    Applications to be the lead campaign have to be submitted by 31 March
    The designation decision will be made on the 14th April

    The Remain side have a huge advantage in that they not only have the full force of Cameron and the establishment behind them, but also have a single campaign body so the designation will be a formality. That's obviously a great help both organisationally and in terms of fund-raising and message discipline.

    Quite how the Leave side managed to get themselves into such a spectacular mess is a wonder to behold. It's not as though the referendum was sprung on them without notice. No coherent message, at least two (or is it three?) campaign groups at each other's throats, no agreement about even the broadest thrust of what they are campaigning for. It's only now - just weeks from the referendum - that they've even begun to consider what the Brexit process, let alone the destination, might look like. This is just extraordinary.

    As usual, the messenger is being shot, but Alastair is not arguing in favour of Remain, he is arguing that the Leave side have made a dog's breakfast of their strategy, tactics and organisation. All the points Alastair makes are valid, and those betting on the referendum would be wise to heed them.

    Of course, it might be true that fears over migration will trump these shortcomings, but, for that to happen, the Leave side also need to address the economic risks. I really can't see how they can do that now, starting from here. They should have started three years ago.

    I'd love to know the process behind the designation of lead Leave slipping a fortnight. Good job I'm not a cynical person...
    Clashed with Easter and that they are expecting a lot of argument/data from the competing sides.

    I suspect they want it to be watertight because you can imagine Farage's ego dragging this into court if his side doesn't get it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On the subject of the process for designating the official campaigns, the Electoral Commission has published an update on the timetable and process:

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/197773/EU-Campaigner-Update-6-February-2016.pdf

    Applications to be the lead campaign have to be submitted by 31 March
    The designation decision will be made on the 14th April

    The Remain side have a huge advantage in that they not only have the full force of Cameron and the establishment behind them, but also have a single campaign body so the designation will be a formality. That's obviously a great help both organisationally and in terms of fund-raising and message discipline.

    Quite how the Leave side managed to get themselves into such a spectacular mess is a wonder to behold. It's not as though the referendum was sprung on them without notice. No coherent message, at least two (or is it three?) campaign groups at each other's throats, no agreement about even the broadest thrust of what they are campaigning for. It's only now - just weeks from the referendum - that they've even begun to consider what the Brexit process, let alone the destination, might look like. This is just extraordinary.

    As usual, the messenger is being shot, but Alastair is not arguing in favour of Remain, he is arguing that the Leave side have made a dog's breakfast of their strategy, tactics and organisation. All the points Alastair makes are valid, and those betting on the referendum would be wise to heed them.

    Of course, it might be true that fears over migration will trump these shortcomings, but, for that to happen, the Leave side also need to address the economic risks. I really can't see how they can do that now, starting from here. They should have started three years ago.

    I'd love to know the process behind the designation of lead Leave slipping a fortnight. Good job I'm not a cynical person...
    Clashed with Easter and that they are expecting a lot of argument/data from the competing sides.

    I suspect they want it to be watertight because you can imagine Farage's ego dragging this into court if his side doesn't get it.
    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
  • I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
    Possibly! But I think the general impression would be of a shambles. Even more of a shambles.
  • On the subject of the process for designating the official campaigns, the Electoral Commission has published an update on the timetable and process:

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/197773/EU-Campaigner-Update-6-February-2016.pdf

    Applications to be the lead campaign have to be submitted by 31 March
    The designation decision will be made on the 14th April

    The Remain side have a huge advantage in that they not only have the full force of Cameron and the establishment behind them, but also have a single campaign body so the designation will be a formality. That's obviously a great help both organisationally and in terms of fund-raising and message discipline.

    Quite how the Leave side managed to get themselves into such a spectacular mess is a wonder to behold. It's not as though the referendum was sprung on them without notice. No coherent message, at least two (or is it three?) campaign groups at each other's throats, no agreement about even the broadest thrust of what they are campaigning for. It's only now - just weeks from the referendum - that they've even begun to consider what the Brexit process, let alone the destination, might look like. This is just extraordinary.

    As usual, the messenger is being shot, but Alastair is not arguing in favour of Remain, he is arguing that the Leave side have made a dog's breakfast of their strategy, tactics and organisation. All the points Alastair makes are valid, and those betting on the referendum would be wise to heed them.

    Of course, it might be true that fears over migration will trump these shortcomings, but, for that to happen, the Leave side also need to address the economic risks. I really can't see how they can do that now, starting from here. They should have started three years ago.

    I'd love to know the process behind the designation of lead Leave slipping a fortnight. Good job I'm not a cynical person...
    Clashed with Easter and that they are expecting a lot of argument/data from the competing sides.

    I suspect they want it to be watertight because you can imagine Farage's ego dragging this into court if his side doesn't get it.
    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.
    Indeed. You can make strong arguments for Vote Leave and got Leave.EU/Grassroots Out
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    On the subject of the process for designating the official campaigns, the Electoral Commission has published an update on the timetable and process:

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/197773/EU-Campaigner-Update-6-February-2016.pdf

    Applications to be the lead campaign have to be submitted by 31 March
    The designation decision will be made on the 14th April

    The Remain side have a huge advantage in that they not only have the full force of Cameron and the establishment behind them, but also have a single campaign body so the designation will be a formality. That's obviously a great help both organisationally and in terms of fund-raising and message discipline.

    Quite how the Leave side managed to get themselves into such a spectacular mess is a wonder to behold. It's not as though the referendum was sprung on them without notice. No coherent message, at least two (or is it three?) campaign groups at each other's throats, no agreement about even the broadest thrust of what they are campaigning for. It's only now - just weeks from the referendum - that they've even begun to consider what the Brexit process, let alone the destination, might look like. This is just extraordinary.

    As usual, the messenger is being shot, but Alastair is not arguing in favour of Remain, he is arguing that the Leave side have made a dog's breakfast of their strategy, tactics and organisation. All the points Alastair makes are valid, and those betting on the referendum would be wise to heed them.

    Of course, it might be true that fears over migration will trump these shortcomings, but, for that to happen, the Leave side also need to address the economic risks. I really can't see how they can do that now, starting from here. They should have started three years ago.

    I'd love to know the process behind the designation of lead Leave slipping a fortnight. Good job I'm not a cynical person...
    Clashed with Easter and that they are expecting a lot of argument/data from the competing sides.

    I suspect they want it to be watertight because you can imagine Farage's ego dragging this into court if his side doesn't get it.
    With friends like these, who needs enemies?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
  • The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
    He might try and injunct the official Leave side from campaigning until the judicial review has been concluded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Bloomberg 32 / 42; last price matched 25.0 !!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2016

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    Rewind the tape again...

    Leave appeals to different groups of voters who have different reasons they want to leave, from the hard left who don't like it being a corporate racket and that it will stop them privatising the railways plus TTIP etc. Lots in the middle want to be able to kick the buggers out. Some on the right want a globalist worldview not a parochial EU centric view, some further to the right obsess about immigration.

    There is no point, and I would hope not the slightest chance, that they will pick one of those lines as the official line and risk everyone else not bothering to vote. No matter how many remainers put a friendly arm around leave shoulder and offer solicitous advice, I hope they will not be stupid enough to take it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Indigo said:

    There is no point, and I would hope not the slightest chance, that they will pick one of those lines as the official line and risk everyone else not bothering to vote.

    You are advocating a stance that guarantees if leave wins, almost all of the leave supporters will be instantly upset by the result.

    Awesome.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:
    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2016

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
    Possibly! But I think the general impression would be of a shambles. Even more of a shambles.
    I rather suspect there will be the general impression of 95% of voter not even noticing. I would be surprised if this is more than mood music to most of the voters until the last couple of weeks. At the moment they see Cameron droning on the TV with half an eye, and migrants knocking down fences with half an eye and get on with their lives.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Indigo said:

    I rather suspect there will be the general impression of 95% of voter not even noticing. I would be surprised if this is more than mood music to most of the voters until the last couple of weeks. At the moment they see Cameron droning on the TV with half an eye, and migrants knocking down fences with half an eye and get on with their lives.

    Yes, much truth in that. However, that doesn't mean that the incoherence of the Leave sides's position won't matter when voters do start paying more attention.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
    He might try and injunct the official Leave side from campaigning until the judicial review has been concluded.
    No chance.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    Let's put this to bed once and for all, you're simply talking bollox. Ukip Leave, Carswell Leave, Farage Leave - there is no such thing. In June we will be asked if we want to stay in the EU, it is perfectly straightforward.

    I thought you lot had pledged to stick to Project Fact.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Scott_P said:

    Indigo said:

    There is no point, and I would hope not the slightest chance, that they will pick one of those lines as the official line and risk everyone else not bothering to vote.

    You are advocating a stance that guarantees if leave wins, almost all of the leave supporters will be instantly upset by the result.

    Awesome.
    That is going to happen anyway, no point in splitting the campaign in advance.

    Besides what is to lose for Leave. If the government goes for EEA, which they will irrespective of what Leave runs on. It is going to be the government that get the blame, not Leave.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave'

    Standard playbook - keep repeating that the other side is a shambles and the whole thing is a foregone conclusion and hope people believe you.

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Scott_P said:

    Indigo said:

    There is no point, and I would hope not the slightest chance, that they will pick one of those lines as the official line and risk everyone else not bothering to vote.

    You are advocating a stance that guarantees if leave wins, almost all of the leave supporters will be instantly upset by the result.

    Awesome.
    Yes, but it involves the possibility of winning. That's kind of the point.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    Meeks' article above is the usual alphabet soup rubbish that ordinary voters will completely ignore.

    EEA, EFTA, WTO, whatever. See those guys burning stuff and smashing down borders in Europe?

    We don;t want them in Britain.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I thought you lot had pledged to stick to Project Fact.

    The PM dropped that after 30 seconds when he started talking about lives being lost due to a Leave vote. We are now doing Project Tendentious Bollox. Judging by some of the replies on here the email has already been sent about from Remain headquarters ;)
  • The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    If one player wants to have a hissy fit and spend his campaigning time in the courts (*cough Mr Farage cough*) then that would be the best news that Leave could get....
    He might try and injunct the official Leave side from campaigning until the judicial review has been concluded.
    No chance.
    But he might try.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Indigo said:

    Life is about chances and opportunities, not kicking your heels and wondering.

    "Nobody ever lay on their deathbed wishing they had spent more time in the office EU"

    Exactly, Leave are the fun lovers, the optimists, the wealth creators and adventurers.

    Remain are the federalists, the corporatists obsessed with acronyms, buzzwords and state funded index linked pensions.

    John Lennon said:

    You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one.

    In the company that I helped to found 13 years ago - and which has grown into a business that employs 25 people or so, with annual revenues well into seven figures - most folk are for Remain. They are concerned - as am I - about losing strategic freedoms we currently enjoy in Europe, which is our second biggest market. EEA membership would be OK, but sub-optimal. A drawn-out FTA negotiation would not be good.

    Good for you, vote to stay then instead of making up nonsense about Ukip Leave.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    Life is about chances and opportunities, not kicking your heels and wondering.

    "Nobody ever lay on their deathbed wishing they had spent more time in the office EU"

    Exactly, Leave are the fun lovers, the optimists, the wealth creators and adventurers.

    Remain are the federalists, the corporatists obsessed with acronyms, buzzwords and state funded index linked pensions.

    John Lennon said:

    You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one.
    Doesn't one Richard Branson tick all those boxes you list above?

    Which Leaver likewise encapsulates all those properties?
    Dyson?

    Let's call it a score draw.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    You can't fatten the pig on market day, as Sir Lynton has been known to say.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
  • Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    I am not sure about that. Those of us on this forum take a great interest in politics but are far removed from ordinary voters. When asking my various family members they say they are not into politics and will think about it nearer the time. For either side to win there is a substantial pool of uncommitted voters to be persuaded but my instinct tells me that if leave cannot provide a coherent message of how the treaties would be re-negotiated, the time involved, and especially the question of free movement of labour, remain will win as the safe default choice. Free movement of labour is the single most important issue for leave to address as there is little or no point in leave if we still retain free movement of labour, as any control of immigration will be the exactly the same as being in the EU.
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    The Leavers increasingly remind me of football fans. They have waited 41 years for their unfashionable team to make it to the FA Cup Final. Now they are there. The occasion proves too much. They flop and lose 4 0."Was that it" they cry. "Its not fair. Another 40 years of hurt."
    The fans are full of recrimination and explanations.
    The other side bullied them.
    The opposing captain got away with shirt tugging and blocking at corners.
    That referee was biased.
    The conditions did not suit their style of play.
    If only their recent Russian signing Boris Getimoff had not pulled his groin in the warm up and limped off.
    No leadership on the pitch.
    No formation from the manager.
    They drew the unlucky dressing room
    The fourth goal was offside.
    What can you do? The answer is obvious. Shake hands at the final whistle. Congratulate your opponents. Shut up and don't whinge. You never know. You might win next time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Omagh bomb: Murder case collapses against Seamus Daly

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35680970
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    I favour Vote Leave but I'm not overly fussed. Only the weirdos on here are bothered.

    A friend of mine has jumped ship from leave.eu to Vote Leave but I don't know the reasons why.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And Leave aren't going from a standing start either.

    There's far too much over claiming from both sides.

    I'd much rather we discussed the merits of assertions such as trade tariffs et al.
    Wanderer said:

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    You can't fatten the pig on market day, as Sir Lynton has been known to say.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    The chances of a judicial review must be substantial, which would waste a few more weeks of the referendum campaign period.

    .. and would not exactly inspire confidence in the coherence of the Leave side.
    So even less chance of you two voting LEAVE then? Aw shucks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
    So, going back to the question - which LEAVE Campaign has the broadest representation?

    Or is this something else you have no view upon?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2016

    For either side to win there is a substantial pool of uncommitted voters to be persuaded but my instinct tells me that if leave cannot provide a coherent message of how the treaties would be re-negotiated, the time involved, and especially the question of free movement of labour, remain will win as the safe default choice.

    Which REMAIN, is it the Nick Clegg "sign any bit of crap the EU send us and join the Euro as fast as we can" remain. The Cameron "i'll just go along with the chaps so I get invited to the nice dinners" remain, the Corbyn "I can't stand this corporatist racket but the party will string me up by my balls if I vote Leave" sort of remain. I think the public should be told what sort of remain they are going to get... and will it be the same next year, or in 2021 ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    That's my position too. This is a strategic decision.

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
    So, going back to the question - which LEAVE Campaign has the broadest representation?

    Or is this something else you have no view upon?
    My view is that Vote Leave has the broadest representation. I don't know if the Electoral Commission will agree.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited March 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
    Is the figure as % that important - I believe its negligible.

    Look, the people fretting about trade don't understand trade, good stuff sells, bad stuff doesn't, govts simply interfere. We've traded for centuries, we're brilliant at it, we don't need Tusk and Juncker to run our market stalls.

    That, after all, is what businesses are.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016
    taffys said:

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    Meeks' article above is the usual alphabet soup rubbish that ordinary voters will completely ignore.

    EEA, EFTA, WTO, whatever. See those guys burning stuff and smashing down borders in Europe?

    We don;t want them in Britain.
    News pictures of truck drivers running the gauntlet of undesirables intent on madness and mayhem will increasingly fill our TV screens over the coming months. The 5000 now in Calais will be, what, 10000, 20000 by the Summer?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35693882

    And this is going to go haywire.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1651125/border-tensions-after-migrants-and-police-clash
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
    So, going back to the question - which LEAVE Campaign has the broadest representation?

    Or is this something else you have no view upon?
    No idea. Not my problem. I assume the EC has a process and will in due course find an answer. I mean I could pull an answer out of my arse to keep you happy, but it would be on the basis of none of the evidence that will be before the EC.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC VoteLeave has the current HMG leavers, more Labour MPs, more Tory MPs, the Ukip MP, one SNP MEP and the DUP.

    Happy to be corrected.
    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
    So, going back to the question - which LEAVE Campaign has the broadest representation?

    Or is this something else you have no view upon?
    My view is that Vote Leave has the broadest representation. I don't know if the Electoral Commission will agree.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Let's say that Leave made it all about immigration.

    The country votes to leave. The government negotiates membership of the EEA.

    That negates Leave's position, but it's not something that they can control.

    But it is something the Government (presumably seeking re-election) would be aware of...and might figure in negotiation.....

    This 'LEAVE' is whatever the government says it will be' is is an abdication of responsibility - if you believe in something, campaign for it - assuming you can agree on what 'it' is......
    You may not have noticed, but UKIP and the Conservatives are different political parties?

    They have different visions for the future.

    There's a pretty strong argument for a general election post a Leave vote to seek guidance from the voters on the negotiation strategy, but I doubt that our politicians will go for that
    You may not have noticed (since we're in condescending mode), but the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP and Green Parties also have different visions for the future - but that is not stopping them campaigning (if not side by side) on the same platform.

    Which UKIP platform do you suggest I pay heed to, by the way?

    Their Leader's or their MP's?
    Ukip is the only party that that is 100% behind Leave. Muddy the water all you like.
    Yes, but which LEAVE?

    The MP's LEAVE

    or

    The Leader's LEAVE?
    you're simply talking bollox. .
    Fine.

    Which campaign should the Electoral Commission appoint as Lead LEAVE?
    The EC doesn't select the Lead according to their views, but according to the breadth of the people they represent. So its irrelevant.
    So, going back to the question - which LEAVE Campaign has the broadest representation?

    Or is this something else you have no view upon?
    My view is that Vote Leave has the broadest representation. I don't know if the Electoral Commission will agree.
    I would hope VoteLeave were appointed - that's the strongest chance we have of having (as near to possible) a sensible debate on the matter - to resolve it one way or the other.

    However, as others have pointed out, it will be interesting to see the reaction of the losers - and whether the UKIP leader and MP can re-unite.....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2016
    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,081
    Mr. 30, perhaps. What's shown and how it's cut are editorial decisions. The broadcast media has been very sympathetic over the migrant crisis.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Dan Hannan
    Guess which country is most often outvoted in the EU. No, go on, guess. https://t.co/yISoi3kaeI

    We have no influence now. Just look at this, we're not on the same page.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
    Is the figure as % that important - I believe its negligible.

    Look, the people fretting about trade don't understand trade, good stuff sells, bad stuff doesn't, govts simply interfere. We've traded for centuries, we're brilliant at it, we don't need Tusk and Juncker to run our market stalls.

    That, after all, is what businesses are.
    To many people, losing any money - real, perceived or otherwise - is the worst thing that can happen.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?

    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.
  • Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
    Indeed so, like Roger's 80/1 little beauty in the Oscars yesterday!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    And Leave aren't going from a standing start either.

    There's far too much over claiming from both sides.

    I'd much rather we discussed the merits of assertions such as trade tariffs et al.

    Wanderer said:

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    You can't fatten the pig on market day, as Sir Lynton has been known to say.
    I don't think it's worthwhile to talk about the merits of the case on here. It's too partisan an environment.

    Talking about the process, who is likely to win and where there is value is another matter.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    Dan Hannan
    Guess which country is most often outvoted in the EU. No, go on, guess. https://t.co/yISoi3kaeI

    We have no influence now. Just look at this, we're not on the same page.

    Outvoted by countries with a clear strategic interest in our staying.

    They deserve everything that's coming to them.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Prediction game aside, what is your prediction?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Dan Hannan
    Guess which country is most often outvoted in the EU. No, go on, guess. https://t.co/yISoi3kaeI

    We have no influence now. Just look at this, we're not on the same page.

    That's just silly. Is Dan really suggesting that Germany has less influence than Latvia or Cyprus?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
    Is the figure as % that important - I believe its negligible.

    Look, the people fretting about trade don't understand trade, good stuff sells, bad stuff doesn't, govts simply interfere. We've traded for centuries, we're brilliant at it, we don't need Tusk and Juncker to run our market stalls.

    That, after all, is what businesses are.
    To many people, losing any money - real, perceived or otherwise - is the worst thing that can happen.
    Yes I appreciate that, my point was the figures you quoted were arbitrary. I don't believe we would lose anything, we're arguably the most successful trading nation in history, we've done it for centuries.

    We need to regain self confidence not lie down next to the corpse like a loyal Labrador.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
    When was the last time @Rodcrosby called something wrong ?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.

    Farage gets so much stick on here, I'd love to see him in a head to head with Mandelson and watch the remainers/undecideds implode.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944

    taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.
    Farage gets so much stick on here, I'd love to see him in a head to head with Mandelson and watch the remainers/undecideds implode.

    Why not get George Galloway, Farage's special guest, on too?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Pulpstar said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
    When was the last time @Rodcrosby called something wrong ?
    No idea, who is he?
  • Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Dan Hannan
    Guess which country is most often outvoted in the EU. No, go on, guess. https://t.co/yISoi3kaeI

    We have no influence now. Just look at this, we're not on the same page.

    That's just silly. Is Dan really suggesting that Germany has less influence than Latvia or Cyprus?
    No, he is saying that Latvia and Cyprus are outvoted less than Germany, perhaps they don't ask for anything controversial.
  • Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Prediction game aside, what is your prediction?
    FWIW, probably around 56% Remain vs 44% Leave +/- 2% either way on a 64% +/- 2% turnout.
    That is to say, I'd be pretty close to what the herd is expecting!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    What is Boris up to? He obviously sided with Brexit to woo Tory voters but surely it's no use him now staying quiet. If he wants to sit comfortably in the back seat as we debate what for some is the biggest political issue for a generation, then surely people can only come to one conclusion - he isn't a leader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    The truth hurts.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.
    Farage gets so much stick on here, I'd love to see him in a head to head with Mandelson and watch the remainers/undecideds implode.
    Why not get George Galloway, Farage's special guest, on too?

    Good thinking.

    Perhaps Gerry Adams can partner Mandy, Sinn Fein are bang in favour because of all the EU money they get. You've heard of them haven't you - they are aligned with the the IRA.

  • taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.
    Farage gets so much stick on here, I'd love to see him in a head to head with Mandelson and watch the remainers/undecideds implode.
    Two wrongs do not make a right. Mandelson is trusted by 4% of the population. Farage probably by 15%. Both have very large groups who do not trust their views.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Pulpstar said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
    When was the last time @Rodcrosby called something wrong ?
    No idea, who is he?
    Was just a general point about punters being wrong more than right. It's correct for the nags for sure, but with political betting you can be right an awful lot.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    That's my position too. This is a strategic decision.

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I do not think leave’s campaign has sunk just yet but it does seem to be an incoherent mess with their only narrative of accusing remain of ‘project fear’. I am very concerned that the British people are simply not getting any message other than confusion and almost certainly are switching swaths of the public off. I do not like the EU but do not subscribe to the leave view that if we vote remain we will be on a course of ever closer union. The EU is on the cusp of complete discord with itself and with German and French elections next year it is going to face many calls to change course from Nation States within the EU. In the circumstances that we remain we will be able to influence the strategy and it is inevitable that treaty changes will be on the agenda in the next few years and if we do not accept the EU at that time we could review our membership again. I can be persuaded to vote leave but the questions in Alastair’s thread do deserve a proper response from the leave campaign, as it is not acceptable to just shoot the messenger and not address the message. I look forward to receiving real clarity from leave which hopefully will be forthcoming as they owe it to all of us undecided voters

    In the end, I think most people will rationalise decisions that they took a long time ago.
    Correct.
    Ultimately, it's a matter of faith, whether you think the UK would be a successful country, or a basket case, outside of the EU,
    It's probably not the best option, but I'd even be happy with a fully independent UK operating on WTO rules alone.

    Even if we lose 1.5-2.5% of GDP in the transition that's well under one year's growth and a price well worth paying for full independence and full control of our borders and laws.
    Like invading Poland. Or offering Austria a blank cheque.
    Or like (Napoleon) invading Russia.
    Or Fred Goodwin taking over ABN Amro
    Yes nice cosy strategic decision
  • Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    The truth hurts.
    Fallon kicking Khan just like he did to Ed Miliband during the election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.

    The Mandelson who was almost single-handedly achieved a hung parliament against Cameron despite being handicapped by Gordon Brown? I wouldn't be complacent if I were on the other team.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Interesting map of various trade potential from EUTrade

    I think could make a better go of it than the EU, they seem to be absolutely crap. @nickherbertmp https://t.co/IryyTV1mqM
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Bit late to look at Mr Thorpe's role in a murder plot.

    http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-03-01/police-to-reopen-jeremy-thorpe-investigation/

    Perhaps Peter Cook was right.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016

    Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    The truth hurts.
    Fallon kicking Khan just like he did to Ed Miliband during the election.
    Yeap...Lynton Crosby textbook moves being deployed. Not so sure they will work as well in London though.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Balkan Newsbeat
    State media says Serbia will send back to Macedonia the 600 migrants now at Preševo after Croatia pushed them back down the #Balkans route
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw it does make me pause for thought to see that people like Alastair, JackW and Peter from Putney are predicting a Remain walkover.

    My prediction for the referendum competition is based entirely on my objective of winning the dosh, pure and simple and doesn't necessarily coincide with what I think will be the result.
    As we saw with PB.com's General Election competition, the winner came out of left field. The chances of winning by following the pack are virtually nil.
    Well said, that applies to every form of betting. Long term winning punters are wrong more often than right but the winning bets are over priced.
    When was the last time @Rodcrosby called something wrong ?
    No idea, who is he?
    Was just a general point about punters being wrong more than right. It's correct for the nags for sure, but with political betting you can be right an awful lot.
    If I have 50 bets, 48 losers and a 50/1 winner I'm in profit.

    Being "right" takes on a different meaning when punting, successful backers and layers understand that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited March 2016
    Richard N


    "Quite how the Leave side managed to get themselves into such a spectacular mess is a wonder to behold. It's not as though the referendum was sprung on them without notice. No coherent message"

    Indeed it seems most leave campaigners have spent their whole lives waiting for this. It must be a case of 'a Kit Kat moment.......



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmmieeHlZvQ
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Omagh bomb: Murder case collapses against Seamus Daly

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35680970

    You'd like to think there won't be celebrations at the top of the Labour Party, but...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Balkan Newsbeat
    State media says Serbia will send back to Macedonia the 600 migrants now at Preševo after Croatia pushed them back down the #Balkans route

    I somehow think these Eastern European countries will care less about 'uman rights.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Omagh bomb: Murder case collapses against Seamus Daly

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35680970

    You'd like to think there won't be celebrations at the top of the Labour Party, but...
    Jahadi Jez will probably invite Jerry Adams for a celebratory soya milk latte.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 2h
    Peter Mandleson says British EU car exports could face 20% tariff without single market agreement. But average WTO tariff in goods is 3/4%.

    Project Fear is Project Bollocks.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    This is almost certainly at least as damaging to Sadiq Khan's prospects:

    @FraserNelson · 19m19 minutes ago

    Sadiq Khan has just declared war on Uber, saying it was a “mistake” to have allowed its taxis into London. My blog: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/sadiq-khan-threatens-crackdown-on-uber-saying-allowing-its-taxis-was-a-mistake/

    Utter stupidity for anyone campaigning for votes in London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    chestnut said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 2h
    Peter Mandleson says British EU car exports could face 20% tariff without single market agreement. But average WTO tariff in goods is 3/4%.

    Project Fear is Project Bollocks.

    Depends if Mandy is involved in the negotiations....

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/oct/21/mandelson-georgeosborne
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    What is Boris up to? He obviously sided with Brexit to woo Tory voters but surely it's no use him now staying quiet. If he wants to sit comfortably in the back seat as we debate what for some is the biggest political issue for a generation, then surely people can only come to one conclusion - he isn't a leader.

    He is trying to keep the fence post up his @rse. So far he has put a couple of toes down on one side and got them rudely trodden on. I think he hopes he can sit at the back of Leave and then if it looks like losing, gently row in behind Remain and hope no one notices. He is unprincipled as ... well, as a politician.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    This is almost certainly at least as damaging to Sadiq Khan's prospects:

    @FraserNelson · 19m19 minutes ago

    Sadiq Khan has just declared war on Uber, saying it was a “mistake” to have allowed its taxis into London. My blog: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/sadiq-khan-threatens-crackdown-on-uber-saying-allowing-its-taxis-was-a-mistake/

    Utter stupidity for anyone campaigning for votes in London.
    What a tool....all these Luddites that are anti-Uber. They might as well advocate a return to horse and carts.
  • Indigo said:

    For either side to win there is a substantial pool of uncommitted voters to be persuaded but my instinct tells me that if leave cannot provide a coherent message of how the treaties would be re-negotiated, the time involved, and especially the question of free movement of labour, remain will win as the safe default choice.

    Which REMAIN, is it the Nick Clegg "sign any bit of crap the EU send us and join the Euro as fast as we can" remain. The Cameron "i'll just go along with the chaps so I get invited to the nice dinners" remain, the Corbyn "I can't stand this corporatist racket but the party will string me up by my balls if I vote Leave" sort of remain. I think the public should be told what sort of remain they are going to get... and will it be the same next year, or in 2021 ?
    You have not addressed my point but launched an attack on remain. Please provide an answer to my question of free movement of labour once we have left
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Interesting map of various trade potential from EUTrade

    I think could make a better go of it than the EU, they seem to be absolutely crap. @nickherbertmp https://t.co/IryyTV1mqM

    Nick Herbert's a slimeball.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    I'm quite surprised anyone is suggesting it all too late for Leave blah blah. We've 113 days to go.

    I'd be astonished if more than 30% of voters have thought about it much if at all yet.

    When we're four weeks out, everyone else may start paying attention - but surely it's the final two or three when most will tune in.

    Remain has rather gone off like the Oban fireworks display - fired off everything in the first moments, including the collected firepower of Two Guys From Brussels two hundred "leading" business men. What else has Remain got for the next 113 days - except ever more risible Fear-mongering?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-15611160
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2016

    Facking Hell. Michael Fallon really has gone after Sadiq Khan

    A senior Cabinet minister today launched an unprecedented attack on mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan, calling him a “Labour lackey who speaks alongside extremists”.

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon claimed the Labour candidate was “unfit” to be London’s Mayor because he had shared platforms with extreme radicals.

    He lambasted Mr Khan as “a man who has said Britain’s foreign policy is to blame for the terrorist threat”. Mr Khan’s office hit back by accusing the minister of “demeaning” his office by making an attack “on mainstream Muslims like Sadiq”.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/defence-secretary-blasts-sadiq-khan-as-labour-lackey-who-shares-platforms-with-extremists-a3192571.html

    This is almost certainly at least as damaging to Sadiq Khan's prospects:

    @FraserNelson · 19m19 minutes ago

    Sadiq Khan has just declared war on Uber, saying it was a “mistake” to have allowed its taxis into London. My blog: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/sadiq-khan-threatens-crackdown-on-uber-saying-allowing-its-taxis-was-a-mistake/

    Utter stupidity for anyone campaigning for votes in London.
    Is it? Most people who don't get the bus use cabs or minicabs. I'd be surprised if there is a huge Uber demographic. The slightly odd, and perhaps clever, thing is that you'd expect cab drivers to vote Tory in normal circumstances.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,728
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    A brave article Alastaire. Even though the news channels are fogging this to death i can't find any interest in it whatsoever. It semms to rank somewhere between whether
    Hartlepool will avoid relegation and whether it'll snow this year.

    This is purely an obsession for a particular strand of Tory Train Spotter and though I like to think my circle is wide I simply don't seem to know any. Therefore though I'm sure at some point people will feel obliged to tune in they certainly haven't yet.

    Unlike the Scottish referendum this hasn't got the ability to fire the imagination because no one really knows what the EU does. It's like asking whether we approve of the civil servants at DEFRA taking on responsibility for fishing quotas. NORMAL people have more important decisins to make.

    Therefore the status quo is looking at a landslide whatever the polls say. A coherent advertising campaign is essential but even the best of the best can only expect to generate interest not alter the fundamentals which is that LEAVING is always going to be the risky option and if we wanted to take risks we'd fly Aeroflot

    I have no idea if you are right about public interest in this. I have to say I am not sure you move in the sorts of circles of society where you are in a position to make such am assessment.

    What I do think you are wrong about are the consequences of a low turnout. If the public as a rule aren't interested then they leave the committed and there are certainly more of those on the LEAVE side than on the REMAIN side.
    If only 42% turnout for an AV theead then at least 20% should for Brexit. After all AV is the one thing that can be relied upon to grip the nation!
    And as I say on turnouts that low LEAVE should walk it.
    Is there not something just a bit ironic about those who are wanting to restore democratic control to the law making in this country seeking to squeeze it through on a low turnout?
    Nope. It is not something I would choose. Just a recognition of reality.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    taffys said:

    watford30 said:

    chestnut said:

    This piece from Trevor Kavanagh sounds like a lot of the things I hear from Mr and Mrs C1,C2 and DE:

    Both Labour and the Tories insist immigration boosts our economy. But if mass immigration makes us richer, why has scruffy Britain been so desperately short of housing, hospitals, schools and jails even before Labour’s boom turned to bust?

    Why have wages for British workers shrivelled or stood still? Why are our prisons full of foreigners and our streets littered with homeless Romanians? Why is George Osborne still cutting?

    Low wages are great for Starbucks’ profits and restaurants who sprout like mushrooms. Cheap labour is a blessing to families with kids and gardens to look after. We are creating a jobs “miracle” for the low paid.

    But low pay is a blight on family finances for millions of British workers struggling to compete with foreign labour and make ends meet.

    David Cameron, George Osborne and the slippery likes of Peter Mandelson can tell fairy tales about economic and military devastation. But will voters really accept this is a “leap in the dark”?

    Or will they think, as Jeremy Paxman once asked: “Why are these lying bastards lying to me?”
    Indeed. Quite how the twice disgraced Mandelson with his £8 million pound house, and weekends in Wiltshire chumming it up with the Rothschilds, thinks he connects with your average Joe is a mystery. Maybe he thinks they look up to his seriously lucrative career in banking and EU connections?
    Its a measure of Remain'smentality that they think Mandelson is a good person to campaign for them at all, let alone on the day his closest political ally is completely slaughtered in the press.
    The Mandelson who was almost single-handedly achieved a hung parliament against Cameron despite being handicapped by Gordon Brown? I wouldn't be complacent if I were on the other team.

    Mandleson works for the EU Commision, he is just going to get the response of that other Mandy (Rice-Davies)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I really do not see the point in lying like this. It's easily knocked down and ruins any credibility.

    It reminds me of Corbynistas photoshopping the CND rally. Footage from Skycopter shows the reality and makes them look even more stupid.
    chestnut said:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 2h
    Peter Mandleson says British EU car exports could face 20% tariff without single market agreement. But average WTO tariff in goods is 3/4%.

    Project Fear is Project Bollocks.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    dr_spyn said:

    Bit late to look at Mr Thorpe's role in a murder plot.

    http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-03-01/police-to-reopen-jeremy-thorpe-investigation/

    Perhaps Peter Cook was right.

    It’s more about the police, isn’t it, that the late JJT. What was the conversation here recently about now many things were more open, the “middle class” were realising what the “working class” had known for years; the police are not to be trusted.
This discussion has been closed.