I didn't realise Varoufakis was actually working for Labour on their economics team... the man that crashed the Greek economy even worse than it already was... what could possibly go wrong!
He is a man who doesn't actually understand what debt is.
Indigo's post below is a brutal indictmemt of Cameron's honesty. I'd never put all those things together, but you have in black and white. Condemned by his own words.
That's why I come to this website. People make better arguments than the actual opposition does.
I didn't realise Varoufakis was actually working for Labour on their economics team... the man that crashed the Greek economy even worse than it already was... what could possibly go wrong!
He is a man who doesn't actually understand what debt is.
"It would have been totally pointless to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty after it had been ratified. Even assuming that a referendum would have been held and said "no" to The Treaty, parliament with LibDems and Labour would never have passed any legislation to abrogate the Treaty. Cameron was unthinking in his language - he expected an early GE and a new parliament with an ungratified Treaty. William Hague's speech at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cameron was deliberately loose or "unthinking" with his language, because he likes to appear eurosceptic, whereas in truth he is anything but; as we see now, at last, in plain sight.
He's too smart not to realise how the phrase "cast iron guarantee" would be understood by readers of the Sun. They would see it as a "cast iron guarantee". Coz that's wot he wrote. Very Deliberately. Very Thinkingly.
He wanted the eurosceptic vote. But he isn't a eurosceptic. As Philip Stephens says in today's FT, he is, in truth, as europhile as Michael Heseltine.
Cameron is a liar and a fraud and a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
"It would have been totally pointless to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty after it had been ratified. Even assuming that a referendum would have been held and said "no" to The Treaty, parliament with LibDems and Labour would never have passed any legislation to abrogate the Treaty. Cameron was unthinking in his language - he expected an early GE and a new parliament with an ungratified Treaty. William Hague's speech at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
He's too smart not to realise how the phrase "cast iron guarantee" would be understood by readers of the Sun. They would see it as a "cast iron guarantee". Coz that's wot he wrote. Very Deliberately. Very Thinkingly.
He wanted the eurosceptic vote. But he isn't a eurosceptic. As Philip Stephens says in today's FT, he is, in truth, as europhile as Michael Heseltine.
Cameron is a liar and a fraud and a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
"Cameron insists UK will not pay £1.7bn EU bill in full"
"Britain quietly settled its latest altercation over the European Union budget by paying a 1.7 billion-pound ($2.6 billion) bill that Prime Minister David Cameron originally derided as “appalling.”"
It is amazing that no broadcast media interview has really given a kicking to either Cameron or Osborne and held them to account on this. It is an open goal. Where is Paxman? I know the two avoid Andrew O'Neill. If you are reading, LauraK or Peston, what are you waiting for?
Nabavi said at the time that it doesn't mean they paid it
Good evening, just done the competition. I estimated turnout at 62%. Leave 50.6%.
Is that for shits and giggles, to maximise your chances of winning the competition, or are you serious?
I'm confident about the turnout figure. The result itself could go either way IMO.
I don't have the foggiest.
Best I can say at the moment is that opinions are diverging, largely on age and class lines.
I sense a clustering groupthink in AB professional groups in the south-east towards Remain - who all largely vote - but what I don't know is if there's enough of them to carry it if the rest of England and half of Wales vote Leave.
This article from Yougov is worth reading, about the gap in turnout between each side.
That's tic, compared to the LEAVERS.
... and while the middle class Tory types chat to each other about treaty change, GDP and CAP, Farage et al will be visiting every hell hole in England telling the underclass this is their chance
Which is why he'll lose overwhelmingly if he's in charge. As those people don't vote.
It doesn't even make sense. Look at YouGov's graph of where is e
Although one could ask how many white van men opt into You Gov's polling pool. I would say those figures are very suspect indeed if you consider where the high watermark of kipperdom fell at the last election. Grotty seaside towns and rundown working class areas (the "left behind").
Er, he's simply wrong. Look at the map. These are the most eurosceptic areas:
Remain have one key advantage over Yes in indyref and Labour last May, they are backed by the middle classes who vote more often than the working classes, even if the old back Leave. In indyref and the general election both the middle classes AND the old backed No and the Tories respectively, giving them a big advantage on turnout, in EU ref the middle class will back Remain diluting elderly voters backing for Leave
Oh and doesn't Havering have a Tory MP too? While Central London's Labour areas are europhile while Outer London's more Tory areas are more eurosceptic.
Look at the South West too. Labour's best area in the South West is Bristol, the only area in the South West to be Europhile.
Outside of Bristol, Somerset and North Somerset are very Eurosceptic - and unanimously Tory.
Plymouth is a Tory city compared to Bristol, and guess what it's a Eurosceptic one.
"It would have been totally pointless to have had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty after it had been ratified. Even assuming that a referendum would have been held and said "no" to The Treaty, parliament with LibDems and Labour would never have passed any legislation to abrogate the Treaty. Cameron was unthinking in his language - he expected an early GE and a new parliament with an ungratified Treaty. William Hague's speech at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cameron was deliberately loose or "unthinking" with his language, because he likes to appear eurosceptic, whereas in truth he is anything but; as we see now, at last, in plain sight.
He's too smart not to realise how the phrase "cast iron guarantee" would be understood by readers of the Sun. They would see it as a "cast iron guarantee". Coz that's wot he wrote. Very Deliberately. Very Thinkingly.
He wanted the eurosceptic vote. But he isn't a eurosceptic. As Philip Stephens says in today's FT, he is, in truth, as europhile as Michael Heseltine.
Cameron is a liar and a fraud and a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
How has he given away a veto on Treaties? That can only be given away by Treaty.
Unless there's some kind of GOTV failure for trump tomorrow it looks like he's got the nomination in the bag. He should be somewhere between a 2/1 & 6/4 shot for POTUS.
Looking at the Irish counts, with 8 more seats to be declared, I think they are going to pan out something like this:
Longford-Westmeath: (1 FF already declared), remaining three FG, Ind, SF Dublin Bay North (1 FG already declared), remaining four FF, SF, plus two out of Lab and two independents Dublin South Central: Final seat between FF and PBP-AAA, probably the latter.
If I'm right, that will make:
FG 50 FF 44 SF 24 Lab 6 or 7 PBP-AAA 6 Indies+minor 27 or 28
According to Oborne, Jeremy Heywood is "a perfect manifestation of everything that has gone so very wrong with the British civil service over the past 15 years."
Looking at the Irish counts, with 8 more seats to be declared, I think they are going to pan out something like this:
Longford-Westmeath: (1 FF already declared), remaining three FG, Ind, SF Dublin Bay North (1 FG already declared), remaining four FF, SF, plus two out of Lab and two independents Dublin South Central: Final seat between FF and PBP-AAA, probably the latter.
If I'm right, that will make:
FG 50 FF 44 SF 24 Lab 6 or 7 PBP-AAA 6 Indies+minor 27 or 28
My quick estimate yielded a FF Gov't if FPTP was used.
Oh and doesn't Havering have a Tory MP too? While Central London's Labour areas are europhile while Outer London's more Tory areas are more eurosceptic.
Look at the South West too. Labour's best area in the South West is Bristol, the only area in the South West to be Europhile.
Outside of Bristol, Somerset and North Somerset are very Eurosceptic - and unanimously Tory.
Plymouth is a Tory city compared to Bristol, and guess what it's a Eurosceptic one.
Generally true, although the likes of Kensington and Chelsea and City of London and Westminster are very Tory and very Europhile while Grimsby is Labour and very Eurosceptic
@paulwaugh Moderate Labour MPs have walked out of PLP, cos Corbyn has left the building for ITV prog recording. "He's not coming back," says one. No Qs
"It would have been totally pointless to have h at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cd a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
Nope.
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Objective one: protect the single market for Britain and others outside the Eurozone. What I mean by that is a set of binding principles that guarantee fairness between Euro and non-Euro countries. Verdict: success - he got the protection eurozone vs non-eurozone. Plus no to SSM/SRM.
Objective two: write competitiveness into the DNA of the whole European Union. And this includes cutting the total burden on business. Verdict: he got a lot of waffle about competitiveness. Nothing to get amazed or outraged about either way.
Objective three: exempt Britain from an “ever closer union” and bolster national parliaments. Not through warm words but through legally binding and irreversible changes. Verdict: success
Objective four: tackle abuses of the right to free movement, and enable us to control migration from the European Union, in line with our manifesto. Verdict: fail
According to Oborne, Jeremy Heywood is "a perfect manifestation of everything that has gone so very wrong with the British civil service over the past 15 years."
Tomorrow's chat with Heywood at the HoC committee could be pop corn time. Actually important if Haywood was publically admonished and cut down to size. But is Bernard's group up to it?
"It would have been totally pointless to have h at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cd a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
Nope.
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Objective one: protect the single market for Britain and others outside the Eurozone. What I mean by that is a set of binding principles that guarantee fairness between Euro and non-Euro countries. Verdict: success - he got the protection eurozone vs non-eurozone. Plus no to SSM/SRM.
Objective two: write competitiveness into the DNA of the whole European Union. And this includes cutting the total burden on business. Verdict: he got a lot of waffle about competitiveness. Nothing to get amazed or outraged about either way.
Objective three: exempt Britain from an “ever closer union” and bolster national parliaments. Not through warm words but through legally binding and irreversible changes. Verdict: success
Objective four: tackle abuses of the right to free movement, and enable us to control migration from the European Union, in line with our manifesto. Verdict: fail
The yardstick to measure it is his actual letter to Tusk, not a speech he gave summarising it.
Good evening, just done the competition. I estimated turnout at 62%. Leave 50.6%.
Is that for shits and giggles, to maximise your chances of winning the competition, or are you serious?
I'm confident about the turnout figure. The result itself could go either way IMO.
I don't have the foggiest.
Best I can say at the moment is that opinions are diverging, largely on age and class lines.
I sense a clustering groupthink in AB professional groups in the south-east towards Remain - who all largely vote - but what I don't know is if there's enough of them to carry it if the rest of England and half of Wales vote Leave.
This article from Yougov is worth reading, about the gap in turnout between each side.
That's fascinating. It really is all about turnout. Must give the REMAINIANS a few jitters. They could convincingly win public opinion, be well ahead in the polls, but still lose, because their supporters are so apathetic, compared to the LEAVERS.
... and while the middle class Tory types chat to each other about treaty change, GDP and CAP, Farage et al will be visiting every hell hole in England telling the underclass this is their chance
We already have the votes, more or less, of working class voters who are fired up about immigration. There is no great well of potential Leave voters who need to be persuaded to turn out. Certainty to vote is far stronger with Leave than with Remain.
Remain do have concentrate on turning out their base. We have to concentrate on winning over undecideds.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
They have got drunk on the taste of civil service boundary transgression with the Scottish IndyRef. Pleased as punch with the universal praise they got for inappropriate behaviour they are doing the same again but are doing it in a completely different environment.
"It would have been totally pointless to have h at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cd a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
Nope.
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Objective one: protect the single market for Britain and others outside the Eurozone. What I mean by that is a set of binding principles that guarantee fairness between Euro and non-Euro countries. Verdict: success - he got the protection eurozone vs non-eurozone. Plus no to SSM/SRM.
Objective two: write competitiveness into the DNA of the whole European Union. And this includes cutting the total burden on business. Verdict: he got a lot of waffle about competitiveness. Nothing to get amazed or outraged about either way.
Objective three: exempt Britain from an “ever closer union” and bolster national parliaments. Not through warm words but through legally binding and irreversible changes. Verdict: success
Objective four: tackle abuses of the right to free movement, and enable us to control migration from the European Union, in line with our manifesto. Verdict: fail
The yardstick to measure it is his actual letter to Tusk, not a speech he gave summarising it.
God help me I have just re-read the letter. Not a great deal of difference tbh.
It is amazing that no broadcast media interview has really given a kicking to either Cameron or Osborne and held them to account on this. It is an open goal. Where is Paxman? I know the two avoid Andrew O'Neill. If you are reading, LauraK or Peston, what are you waiting for?
It the age old problem, the leftie media types love the EU, it gets them their nice foreign holidays and their cheap Polish tradesmen and cheap Eastern European nannies for the kids. They would rather cut out their own livers and fry them with onions that say or suggest anything naughty about their beloved EU.
LauraK and Peston are now arch rivals. Competing for every story and to get one ahead of the other. One of them is going to work it out and skewer Cameron or Osborne. That new chap on Sky politics (ex C4) seems to have sunk without trace.
They have got drunk on the taste of civil service boundary transgression with the Scottish IndyRef. Pleased as punch with the universal praise they got for inappropriate behaviour they are doing the same again but are doing it in a completely different environment.
Pritti is the type to bring a gun to a knife fight.
Good evening, just done the competition. I estimated turnout at 62%. Leave 50.6%.
Is that for shits and giggles, to maximise your chances of winning..
I'm confident about the turnout figure. ...IMO.
I don't have the foggiest.
Best I can say at the moment is that opinions are diverging, largely on age and class lines.
I sense a clustering groupthink in AB professional groups in the south-east towards Remain - who all largely vote - but what I don't know is if there's enough of them to carry it if the rest of England and half of Wales vote Leave.
This article from Yougov is worth reading, about the gap in turnout between each side.
That's to the LEAVERS.
... and while the middle class Tory types chat to each other about treaty change, GDP and CAP, Farage et al will be visiting every hell hole in England telling the underclass this is their chance
Which is why he'll lose overwhelmingly if he's in charge. As those people don't vote.
It doesn't even make sense. Look at YouGov's graph of where is eurosceptic and where is europhile. Does euroscepticism correlate with being a hellhole? No, quite the opposite, those are the most europhile areas in the country. Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is the highest, that is the target demographic to get out the vote.
The most europhile areas, the ones that agree with David Cameron, are generally those that wouldn;t vote tory in a month of Sundays. Inner Cities, University towns, Scotland, the North West.
If I was Cameron looking at that map, I'd be bricking it. The entire constituency that put me in Downing street is against me.
True. To fully evaluate this needs a new model beyond most of our polling companies. May be REMAIN have this model arising out of the GE2015 work of the Conservatives? This could then be the driver for all these dead cat antics from project fear, just trying a new one each day to see what will change the underlying polling? Meanwhile the cr*p LEAVE campaigns muddle along wasting time until one gets designated by the Commission. Farage's destructive tendencies are probably the biggest threat to LEAVE.
The real issue is whether Project Fear works with apathetic voters. Remain voters do seem to be apathetic at this stage.
Good evening, just done the competition. I estimated turnout at 62%. Leave 50.6%.
Is that for shits and giggles, to maximise your chances of winning the competition, or are you serious?
I'm confident about the turnout figure. The result itself could go either way IMO.
I don't have the foggiest.
Best I can say at the moment is that opinions are diverging, largely on age and class lines.
I sense a clustering groupthink in AB professional groups in the south-east towards Remain - who all largely vote - but what I don't know is if there's enough of them to carry it if the rest of England and half of Wales vote Leave.
This article from Yougov is worth reading, about the gap in turnout between each side.
That's fascinating. It really is all about turnout. Must give the REMAINIANS a few jitters. They could convincingly win public opinion, be well ahead in the polls, but still lose, because their supporters are so apathetic, compared to the LEAVERS.
... and while the middle class Tory types chat to each other about treaty change, GDP and CAP, Farage et al will be visiting every hell hole in England telling the underclass this is their chance
We already have the votes, more or less, of working class voters who are fired up about immigration. There is no great well of potential Leave voters who need to be persuaded to turn out. Certainty to vote is far stronger with Leave than with Remain.
Remain do have concentrate on turning out their base. We have to concentrate on winning over undecideds.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
The Euro referendum on Channel 4 in a nutshell. Nicola Sturgeon in London arguing coherently why we would be better off staying in the EU and Boris behaving like an idiot swinging like an ape in a bus factory in Belfast.
While my predictive powers have taken a slight upturn I'll predict that when this referendum is over Boris will be the biggest loser and at best he'll be left swinging in the wilderness like a poor mans Farage.
Gove and Hannan are exemplars of enlightened reason. I'm sure that your mind is with them but the heart has its reasons.
They are indeed, especially Gove.
My main disagreement with them is that I give much more weight to the economic and practical risks of Brexit, plus I'd like to know in general terms what I'd be voting for if I voted Leave.
"It would have been totally pointless to have h at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cd a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
Nope.
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Obj eu, in line with our manifesto. Verdict: fail
The yardstick to measure it is his actual letter to Tusk, not a speech he gave summarising it.
God help me I have just re-read the letter. Not a great deal of difference tbh.
What in particular do you think he failed on?
Can't load pdf right now but from memory he wanted a specific target to cut EU laws by, protection to stop Eurozone ganging up on non-Eurozone nations, to stop all in-work benefits to migrants for four years, and to end child benefit being sent over seas.
And this was after he had been negotiating for years. Demands for CAP reform, EU budget cuts, fast tracking of trade deals with USA, India, Japan, ASEAN, social chapter and emergency brake on migration had all been dropped prior.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
Anyone know how hispanics are breaking for Clinton-Sanders ?
*Half an eye on California.
Only Nevada had a non-nelgible number, exit polls said Clinton 46%, Sanders 54% (for 'Latinos'); Clinton won overall 53:47 so a small pro-Sanders bias.
It is amazing that no broadcast media interview has really given a kicking to either Cameron or Osborne and held them to account on this. It is an open goal. Where is Paxman? I know the two avoid Andrew O'Neill. If you are reading, LauraK or Peston, what are you waiting for?
It the age old problem, the leftie media types love the EU, it gets them their nice foreign holidays and their cheap Polish tradesmen and cheap Eastern European nannies for the kids. They would rather cut out their own livers and fry them with onions that say or suggest anything naughty about their beloved EU.
LauraK and Peston are now arch rivals. Competing for every story and to get one ahead of the other. One of them is going to work it out and skewer Cameron or Osborne. That new chap on Sky politics (ex C4) seems to have sunk without trace.
Gove and Hannan are exemplars of enlightened reason. I'm sure that your mind is with them but the heart has its reasons.
They are indeed, especially Gove.
My main disagreement with them is that I give much more weight to the economic and practical risks of Brexit, plus I'd like to know in general terms what I'd be voting for if I voted Leave.
If we vote for Leave we'll have a little under four years of Tory government still remaining. It will almost certainly be an EEA/EFTA style negotiation under those circumstances as almost all vocal Tory Leavers back (plus its the closest to Remain so Tories Remainers who want the Single Market would go for that too).
The Euro referendum on Channel 4 in a nutshell. Nicola Sturgeon in London arguing coherently why we would be better off staying in the EU and Boris behaving like an idiot swinging like an ape in a bus factory in Belfast.
While my predictive powers have taken a slight upturn I'll predict that when this referendum is over Boris will be the biggest loser and at best he'll be left swinging in the wilderness like a poor mans Farage.
Sturgeon in London arguing for unionism; "we're through the looking-glass, people."
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
EDIT.. that's wrong actually, Labour and UKIP were neck and neck 2nd in the GE really, though UKIP and Tory run the council
Gove and Hannan are exemplars of enlightened reason. I'm sure that your mind is with them but the heart has its reasons.
They are indeed, especially Gove.
My main disagreement with them is that I give much more weight to the economic and practical risks of Brexit, plus I'd like to know in general terms what I'd be voting for if I voted Leave.
If we vote for Leave we'll have a little under four years of Tory government still remaining. It will almost certainly be an EEA/EFTA style negotiation under those circumstances as almost all vocal Tory Leavers back (plus its the closest to Remain so Tories Remainers who want the Single Market would go for that too).
Do we have the position of the six cabinet ministers and Boris on this?
Actually it was NATO/CIA who pushed for the regime change in the Ukraine and subsequent military action against rebellious provinces and it was the EU through the Normandy Four who brought the peace. Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace. It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
Actually it was NATO/CIA who pushed for the regime change in the Ukraine and subsequent military action against rebellious provinces and it was the EU through the Normandy Four who brought the peace. Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace. It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
"It would have been totally pointless to have h at Conference was correctly qualified. Typical kipper type logic."
****
You miss my point. I'm saying Cd a charlatan. THAT is my point.
He is no liar, he was talking about upcoming the 2007 election. He was not to know that Brown would shock everyone by cancelling the election.
Had Cameron continued to 2010 with the same commitment then reneged on it he'd be a liar. But he was up-front and honest before the 2010 election and became PM on the back of the 2010 manifesto not the 2007 manifesto. If you want honesty, judge him on the 2010 that he went to the country on. He had fully cleared up that the situation had changed long before 2010.
There you go with your facts, destroying the Cameron is a liar narrative.
Just like in November 2015 he described four measures he wanted, of which he failed on one, migration. A biggie, of course, but as we know from all the committed EEA-ers, immigration is not something that troubles many Leavers.
He only got one of his four pledges. He failed on migration as you say. He failed on child benefit. He failed on a concrete target to reduce red tape. He failed to get proper protection from the Eurozone, and even signed up the entire UK finance sector to EU regulation. And he also gave away his veto on new Eurozone treaties.
Nope.
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Obj eu, in line with our manifesto. Verdict: fail
The yardstick to measure it is his actual letter to Tusk, not a speech he gave summarising it.
God help me I have just re-read the letter. Not a great deal of difference tbh.
What in particular do you think he failed on?
Can't load pdf right now but from memory he wanted a specific target to cut EU laws by, protection to stop Eurozone ganging up on non-Eurozone nations, to stop all in-work benefits to migrants for four years, and to end child benefit being sent over seas.
And this was after he had been negotiating for years. Demands for CAP reform, EU budget cuts, fast tracking of trade deals with USA, India, Japan, ASEAN, social chapter and emergency brake on migration had all been dropped prior.
As I read that for the methodology they assume the same turnout as last time, so I am putting that down as one of the many polls that understate Trump who brings so many new people to the polls.
Vermont, Georgia, Alabama and Texas all have twenty percent cut off.
The Government policy is to Remain. "There is no separate process for departments whose ministers are campaigning to leave the EU beyond the guidance published on Monday. Day-to-day business will continue to be conducted in the usual way and all ministers will retain access to any papers relevant to their departments other than those specifically regarding the in-out question.”
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
Yes it is the third one I was looking at, I'm from Warrington which as I said is also on that list and again a very Tory locale compared to the rest of our region, so I was going off the Wiki list of Havering MPs. Certainly then Havering is a lot more Tory than its nearby eurosceptic central London areas.
So all in all the list shows nothing like SeanT seemed to think it did. As is crystal clear if you view the YouGov Map and a Constituency Map side-by-side. The red of regions of Labour MPs in a constituency map coincides almost perfectly with green Europhile areas.
While huge swathes of the country are blue in a constituency map and Eurosceptic.
Fur Leave to win, the high-turnout, elderly, sceptical vote needs to be kept on side and turnout to win. If Leave wins by a considerable margin the groups that got the Tories elected like elderly sceptics et Leave can win the referendum. "Project Fear" is quite sensibly about trying to put the frighteners on these high turnout voters.
If Leave ignores these high turnout voters that should be in Leave's column to go hunting for unregistered non-voters it would be a terrible mistake.
If we vote for Leave we'll have a little under four years of Tory government still remaining. It will almost certainly be an EEA/EFTA style negotiation under those circumstances as almost all vocal Tory Leavers back (plus its the closest to Remain so Tories Remainers who want the Single Market would go for that too).
I don't know whether my friends and acquaintances in the Conservative Party are atypical, but those who favour Leave are mainly motivated by concerns over the immigration numbers. That's probably true of many non-Conservative Leavers as well. Therefore, if Leave do win, and we end up back where we started on free movement, there will be one hell of a row, both in the party and in the country as a whole.
If we vote for Leave we'll have a little under four years of Tory government still remaining. It will almost certainly be an EEA/EFTA style negotiation under those circumstances as almost all vocal Tory Leavers back (plus its the closest to Remain so Tories Remainers who want the Single Market would go for that too).
I don't know whether my friends and acquaintances in the Conservative Party are atypical, but those who favour Leave are mainly motivated by concerns over the immigration numbers. That's probably true of many non-Conservative Leavers as well. Therefore, if Leave do win, and we end up back where we started on free movement, there will be one hell of a row, both in the party and in the country as a whole.
I think the way to reconcile it is quite simple, negotiate a leave to EFTA then hold a further referendum in 2018/9 to finish this once and for all.
Between the voters for Remain and the voters for Leave to EEA/EFTA I think that would be confirmed by an overwhelming margin. Especially if you have relative Leave heavyweights like Gove, Boris, Hannan, and I believe from memory Carswell all campaigning for yes to EEA.
Actually it was NATO/CIA who pushed for the regime change in the Ukraine and subsequent military action against rebellious provinces and it was the EU through the Normandy Four who brought the peace. Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace. It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
If we vote for Leave we'll have a little under four years of Tory government still remaining. It will almost certainly be an EEA/EFTA style negotiation under those circumstances as almost all vocal Tory Leavers back (plus its the closest to Remain so Tories Remainers who want the Single Market would go for that too).
I don't know whether my friends and acquaintances in the Conservative Party are atypical, but those who favour Leave are mainly motivated by concerns over the immigration numbers. That's probably true of many non-Conservative Leavers as well. Therefore, if Leave do win, and we end up back where we started on free movement, there will be one hell of a row, both in the party and in the country as a whole.
Indeed. There is going to be one hell of a row. And the PM who delivers the almost inevitable EEA-like agreement is going to be hated. But is there any feasible PM who would sacrifice free movement of goods, services and capital in order to secure significant restrictions on free movement of people? I can't see one.
Actually it was NATO/CIA who pushed for the regime change in the Ukraine and subsequent military action against rebellious provinces and it was the EU through the Normandy Four who brought the peace. Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace. It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
The USA specifically told Georgia _not_ to attack South Ossetia.
Well some folks encouraged them but ultimately George W, Rice and Gates overrode them. Even George W became bored of the bombers boys in his second term.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
What we need to bear in mind is that "working class" and "Conservative" are quite compatible in much of England.
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
What we need to bear in mind is that "working class" and "Conservative" are quite compatible in much of England.
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
Agreed but the right wing working class are regular voters, not "hellhole" "daytime drinkers".
The most interesting places will arguably be middle-class areas with high older populations. Places like Stratford-on-Avon and Malvern. Those two factors pull in opposite directions on this issue.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
What we need to bear in mind is that "working class" and "Conservative" are quite compatible in much of England.
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
Actually it was NATO/CIA who pushed for the regime change in the Ukraine and subsequent military action against rebellious provinces and it was the EU through the Normandy Four who brought the peace. Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace. It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
The most interesting places will arguably be middle-class areas with high older populations. Places like Stratford-on-Avon and Malvern. Those two factors pull in opposite directions on this issue.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
What we need to bear in mind is that "working class" and "Conservative" are quite compatible in much of England.
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
I think places like Malvern would be firmly Leave on current numbers. I think it's in places like Surrey and Buckinghamshire that you'd see a greater split.
To be fair I think we are at cross purposes, because you are incapable of expressing yourself coherently.
My point is that the eurosceptic vote is concentrated in WWC areas, with the old, the uneducated especially represented, along with a large tranche of Tories of all stripes (as I said).
Your point was.... dunno.
My point is that Eurosceptic correlates with right wing voters and not hellholes which is what I said. Europhile correlates with Labour/SNP/PC.
To get out the Eurosceptic vote the Leave campaign needs to win the vast majority right wing Tory style voters first and foremost and appeal to lefties secondary. This again is what I said which you objected to so vehemently:
... and while the middle class Tory types chat to each other about treaty change, GDP and CAP, Farage et al will be visiting every hell hole in England telling the underclass this is their chance
Which is why he'll lose overwhelmingly if he's in charge. As those people don't vote.
It doesn't even make sense. Look at YouGov's graph of where is eurosceptic and where is europhile. Does euroscepticism correlate with being a hellhole? No, quite the opposite, those are the most europhile areas in the country. Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is the highest, that is the target demographic to get out the vote.
I stand by that Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is highest. I never said that it's not a WWC right-wing vote did I? Just that it's not a hell hole.
I do not think Warrington is a hellhole. I don't think isam considers Havering to be a hellhole. While we do indeed have more right wing voters than our neighbours. I fail to understand what I've written that is objectionable to you.
The most interesting places will arguably be middle-class areas with high older populations. Places like Stratford-on-Avon and Malvern. Those two factors pull in opposite directions on this issue.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 2. Peterborough - Tory MP 3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP 4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs 7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP 8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs 9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP 10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
Havering has 2 Tory MPs by my reckoning.. Rosindale and Watkinson
Yes my mistake, it's even more Tory than I realised.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
If the third constituency you are talking of, the Labour one, is Dagenham and Rainham, most of that isn't in Havering anyway.
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
What we need to bear in mind is that "working class" and "Conservative" are quite compatible in much of England.
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
I think places like Malvern would be firmly Leave on current numbers. I think it's in places like Surrey and Buckinghamshire that you'd see a greater split.
As I read that for the methodology they assume the same turnout as last time, so I am putting that down as one of the many polls that understate Trump who brings so many new people to the polls.
Vermont, Georgia, Alabama and Texas all have twenty percent cut off.
Comments
That's why I come to this website. People make better arguments than the actual opposition does.
GOP
Trump 33
Rubio 18
Cruz 18
Kasich 10
Carson 9
Dems
Clinton 56
Sanders 33
General election
Clinton 44
Trump 39
Clinton 44
Cruz 39
Clinton 41
Rubio 43
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MRG_MI_Poll_Spring_16_Pres_Prim-FINAL.pdf
@tnewtondunn
Guidance to civil servants on EU papers leaked: gives broad remit to withhold anything "in support of", ie much more
Look at the South West too. Labour's best area in the South West is Bristol, the only area in the South West to be Europhile.
Outside of Bristol, Somerset and North Somerset are very Eurosceptic - and unanimously Tory.
Plymouth is a Tory city compared to Bristol, and guess what it's a Eurosceptic one.
“Jeremy Heywood’s unconstitutional act threatens the reputation of the civil service. Secretaries of State are responsible for their departments. For an unelected official to prevent them being aware of the information they need for their duties is wrong.”
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/banning-leave-ministers-from-getting-civil-service-support-is-both-wrong-and-dangerous.html
Longford-Westmeath: (1 FF already declared), remaining three FG, Ind, SF
Dublin Bay North (1 FG already declared), remaining four FF, SF, plus two out of Lab and two independents
Dublin South Central: Final seat between FF and PBP-AAA, probably the latter.
If I'm right, that will make:
FG 50
FF 44
SF 24
Lab 6 or 7
PBP-AAA 6
Indies+minor 27 or 28
Fine Gael seem to do better from the STV than FF.
Two things written down and formally agreed to by 28 countries. They ignore one and believe the other. They are immune to reason.
Moderate Labour MPs have walked out of PLP, cos Corbyn has left the building for ITV prog recording. "He's not coming back," says one. No Qs
Here are the objectives (November 2015):
Objective one: protect the single market for Britain and others outside the Eurozone. What I mean by that is a set of binding principles that guarantee fairness between Euro and non-Euro countries.
Verdict: success - he got the protection eurozone vs non-eurozone. Plus no to SSM/SRM.
Objective two: write competitiveness into the DNA of the whole European Union. And this includes cutting the total burden on business.
Verdict: he got a lot of waffle about competitiveness. Nothing to get amazed or outraged about either way.
Objective three: exempt Britain from an “ever closer union” and bolster national parliaments. Not through warm words but through legally binding and irreversible changes.
Verdict: success
Objective four: tackle abuses of the right to free movement, and enable us to control migration from the European Union, in line with our manifesto.
Verdict: fail
I ended up hand-feeding otters.....
Remain do have concentrate on turning out their base. We have to concentrate on winning over undecideds.
1. Havering - One Tory MP, One Labour MP
2. Peterborough - Tory MP
3. Bracknell Forest - Tory MP
4. Blackpool - One Tory MP, One Labour MP
5. Blackburn with Darwen - One Tory MP, One Labour MP
6. Southend-on-Sea - Two Tory MPs
7. Warrington - One Tory MP, One Labour MP
8. South Tyneside - Two Labour MPs
9. Sandwell - Three Labour MPs, One Tory MP
10. Cumbria - Three Labour MPs, Two Tory MPs, One Lib Dem MP
So all in all other than Tyneside every single area has either some Tory or unanimous Tory representation. Contrast with the big Labour cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sunderland, Leeds etc
https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/704371093549805569
Haven't they been trying for months?
What in particular do you think he failed on?
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/493ca395-91a3-466e-83f0-8c006dbfaa1e.pdf
Alabama
GOP
Trump: 42%
Rubio: 19%
Cruz: 16%
Carson: 11%
Kasich: 5%
Dems
Clinton 71
Sanders 23
Oklahoma:
GOP
Trump: 35
Cruz: 23
Rubio: 22
Kasich: 8
Carson: 7
Dems
Sanders 48
Clinton 43
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/UMass_Amherst_Feb_2016.pdf
GOP
Trump: 47
Rubio: 15
Cruz: 15
Kasich: 11
Carson: 2
Dems
Clinton 47
Sanders 44
Ludicrous but I covered at 1088-1 for £2 (I'm playing a backing game in POTUS)
Maj Gen Julian Thompson commanded 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War "I fought for Britain and I know how the EU weakens our defences
The myth that leaving the EU would harm British national security must be destroyed once and for all "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12176954/I-fought-for-Britain-and-I-know-how-the-EU-weakens-our-defences.html
A bond issues a divvy (or nuffinck); That defines a rate-of-return (or 'yield'). Unless the Swiss are charging rental-fees.
While my predictive powers have taken a slight upturn I'll predict that when this referendum is over Boris will be the biggest loser and at best he'll be left swinging in the wilderness like a poor mans Farage.
*Half an eye on California.
My main disagreement with them is that I give much more weight to the economic and practical risks of Brexit, plus I'd like to know in general terms what I'd be voting for if I voted Leave.
And this was after he had been negotiating for years. Demands for CAP reform, EU budget cuts, fast tracking of trade deals with USA, India, Japan, ASEAN, social chapter and emergency brake on migration had all been dropped prior.
Across the three Havering constituencies I make it 62,610 Tory votes to 39,201 Labour ones. Not exactly the most Labour area of the region, certainly not comparable to europhile Liverpool etc
More chance of me voting Tory
Havering is Tory and UKIP with the rest nowhere
EDIT.. that's wrong actually, Labour and UKIP were neck and neck 2nd in the GE really, though UKIP and Tory run the council
Similarly it was NATO/CIA who pushed Georgia to invade South Ossetia and the EU who again made the peace.
It has also been NATO/CIA who have been sponsoring the radical salafist jihadis who have caused such mayhem in Libya, Iraq and Syria. Good reason Hollande went to the EU not NATO after the Paris attacks.
Neither NATO nor the EU are particularly beneficial to our national security. Maybe NATO will improve once Trump becomes President.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73-xpW1tFV8
Keep wearing that bullet proof vest Donald!
That's so a Rubio front.
Vermont, Georgia, Alabama and Texas all have twenty percent cut off.
New poll showing Cruz and Trump level in Texas.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23924
"There is no separate process for departments whose ministers are campaigning to leave the EU beyond the guidance published on Monday. Day-to-day business will continue to be conducted in the usual way and all ministers will retain access to any papers relevant to their departments other than those specifically regarding the in-out question.”
So all in all the list shows nothing like SeanT seemed to think it did. As is crystal clear if you view the YouGov Map and a Constituency Map side-by-side. The red of regions of Labour MPs in a constituency map coincides almost perfectly with green Europhile areas.
While huge swathes of the country are blue in a constituency map and Eurosceptic.
Fur Leave to win, the high-turnout, elderly, sceptical vote needs to be kept on side and turnout to win. If Leave wins by a considerable margin the groups that got the Tories elected like elderly sceptics et Leave can win the referendum. "Project Fear" is quite sensibly about trying to put the frighteners on these high turnout voters.
If Leave ignores these high turnout voters that should be in Leave's column to go hunting for unregistered non-voters it would be a terrible mistake.
https://politicalwire.com/2016/02/29/trump-leads-in-alabama-and-oklahoma/
Alabama: Trump 42%, Rubio 19%, Cruz 16%, Carson 11%, Kasich 5% (Monmouth)
Oklahoma: Trump 35%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 22%, Kasich 8%, Carson 7% (Monmouth)
Texas: Cruz 33%, Trump 32%, Rubio 17%, Kasich 7%, Carson 6% (ARG)
Massachusetts: Trump 47%, Rubio 15%, Cruz 15%, Kasich 11%, Carson 2% (UMass)
Between the voters for Remain and the voters for Leave to EEA/EFTA I think that would be confirmed by an overwhelming margin. Especially if you have relative Leave heavyweights like Gove, Boris, Hannan, and I believe from memory Carswell all campaigning for yes to EEA.
Does not bode well if they don't go when they are free.
25p rest of week
50p next week
Bound to fail IMO.
Had to be priced at no more than 35p to have a chance of getting your Star/Sun/Express readers Methinks
"Brexit ‘could leave UK with blackouts and gas shortages’"
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/utilities/article4701374.ece
The most eurosceptic constituencies will be working class Conservative, with a big UKIP vote. The most europhile will be middle class Labour (or SNP) with little UKIP vote.
The spectrum (from Leave to Remain) is roughly, English working class right wing seats, English middle class right wing seats, Welsh right wing seats, UUP/DUP seats, English left wing working class seats, Welsh (English speaking) left wing seats, English left wing middle class seats, Scottish working class seats, Welsh-speaking seats, Scottish middle class seats, Irish Nationalist seats.
New AV Thread New AV Thread
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/utilities/article4700821.ece
Ted Heath all over again!!
To get out the Eurosceptic vote the Leave campaign needs to win the vast majority right wing Tory style voters first and foremost and appeal to lefties secondary. This again is what I said which you objected to so vehemently: I stand by that Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is highest. I never said that it's not a WWC right-wing vote did I? Just that it's not a hell hole.
I do not think Warrington is a hellhole. I don't think isam considers Havering to be a hellhole. While we do indeed have more right wing voters than our neighbours. I fail to understand what I've written that is objectionable to you.