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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to Dav
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to David Cameron’s Caesar
Video: The assassination of Julius Caesar and which has served as guide for The Tory Party in the past on deposing leaders. Nota bene, the video contains graphic violence not suitable for minors nor those of a delicate disposition.
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On-topic: if Leave lose, as I expect, due to in-fighting, amongst other factors, the blue contingent may well take out its frustration on Cameron.
On blackberry so can't easily repost. Would be obliged if someone would.
After all, we must give him a fair chance to answer, mustn't we? Wouldn't want to unfairly acuse him of not having an answer.
When the economic tide goes out we shall see who has no costume!
True but there is a cost to that as well, which is having to bail out the uncompetitive peripheral countries - and ultimately probably enter a fiscal union with them.
CameronCameronCameronCameron
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NMXYcPnySxg
There's an interesting Andrew Rawnsley article about how Cameron needs to build bridges with Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP, in order to win this. Left-wingers who are commenting on this seem inclined to leave Cameron to twist in the wind.
It's also worth remembering we are a net exporter of services - the fastest growing sector of our economy - and of capital. We would not want to put either at risk.
The equation is very balanced. But most EU member states have no trade deficit with the UK. Why would they want a deal that leaves them in a worse position than they have currently?
Freedom of Labour is or would be as it is now if we want access to the single market which is what a so called free trade deal would be. In fact it would be less as we would not have the renegotiated positions.
We are part of Europe and we are not going to be treated as if we were not- to do so would undermine the EU itself.
A review of the 168 council by elections held since June Last year
https://t.co/ZNksaMn46J
I prefer this version.
And surely he should be muttering 'Et EU Michael?'
On knifing Cameron even if he wins, there seems enough emotion behind plenty of Leavers to go for it - makes me think even if they don't, he'll step up his plans to leave in a year or so in any case. I tend to feel like that most mornings - it's why I haven't had a drop of drink in years and years, I think an actual hangover might well kill me.
On topic (ish) here's one from the 70s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzTeLePbB08
LibDems doing quite well too.
This far out from a GE, it is general party affilliation that wins out over "best PM". The time to ditch Jezza is this summer, as these results will not last.
A strong currency helps with buying other overseas companies - which would lead to further income flows.
As I understand it a strong currency can help with govt funding costs.
A strong currency (if we have one) makes us wealthier as individuals relative to the rest of the world.
Germany has had these benefits in the past. In the long term however there is no reason to assume that the vast continental wide benefits of scale of a single currency and market and labour force will not make the whole EZ better off.
For all of that I do not see the UK in the Eurozone any time soon if ever and I would not vote to join. This is what the whole renegotiation process has been about.
But that is not to recognise that the features of the EZ might well lead to greater prosperity for that zone in due course.
His image in the media, both before the EU referendum announcement and more importantly after it, has been as a serious man, a heavyweight, a "conviction politician", which even John Redwood, whose description as heavyweight was always tongue in cheek, didn't manage. He's the guy who distributed bibles, using private funding, to thousands of schools, right? Frankly are the insiders going to want a man like that as prime minister?
Alastair's point is good that Cameron could avoid a TV debate, but although Cameron is indeed a polished performer - I don't know who trained him, but they clearly studied or perhaps even trained both Blair and Hague - so is Johnson. Johnson has far more skills in the demotic department. Everybody thinks they're cynical about his "ruffled" look, but in actual fact it wins him a lot of "likes".
What matters most in such debates isn't who technically wins, or even who most watchers think has won on the night. Look at Farage - he "won" one of the pre-GE debates in that sense. No, what's most important is who the media say the next morning won the confrontation, and in particular, what they say in their headlines and photographs. Johnson could thrash Cameron like they were back at Eton, but if the newspapers say Cameron outclassed him ("BORIS 'WITHOUT ANSWER' AS DAVE LAUNCHES EMOTIONAL DEFENCE OF 'BRITISH MOTHERLAND'") and print a photo of Cameron looking serious and concerned, and one of Johnson picking his nose and looking like an arrogant scoffer, people will think "Cameron won" even if the night before they thought he lost.
So after this excursion, I conclude that whatever happens on QT isn't itself very important, even if chatterers can indulge their hobby and chat about it to their hearts' content, but how it's described by opinion formers might be.
Could someone please post their opinion on why although recent polls (ORB and YouGov) suggest a victory for Leave, as does at least one sort of consideration of momentum in the polls, the betting markets are still implying a probability of about 68% that Remain will win. That probability has risen since the amount of money staked on the Betfair exchange has more than doubled following the "deal" and referendum announcements. I'm pro-Remain, but I think the price on Leave makes it worth buying, and I'm already heavily invested. Anybody else here have an opinion? Or are they more interested in what politicians have for breakfast, as if they were on their sofas advising football managers at half-time?
They had an opportunity to say "This Referendum is not about Britain. It is about the Tories and UKIP, slugging it out, for their best interests, not Britain's.
If it was truly about Britain's interests in the EU, Cameron would not have settled for a shamefully poor deal. Let's be clear: his deal does not redefine our relationship with the European Union. All we have done is wasted our reserves of goodwill with our partners, wasted an opportunity to have that once-in-a-generation reassessment of what we want from Europe. To say what we are prepared to offer Europe. And, importantly, to say what we are not. Instead, we have a feeble justification offered for this vote in June.
Everything that happens over the EU from now on is owned by the Tories. They have not engaged other parties in our relationship with the EU. So stuff 'em. Our advise is that people do not engage with the Referendum; that they do not vote in the Referendum."
I think that would have been a very powerful message, very easy to sell, potentially potent to the Tories. And Labour could have claimed any lower turn-out of that of the election as the people supporting their position.
Instead, they have blundered along, appearing to give an unenthusiastic support for the deal and getting no credit from the voters for any engagement.
'Labour is doing well, very well.'
As shown by every poll.
Clearly Corbyn is far more attractive to floating voters than Ed.
Furthermore he with great condescension accused me of not answering his first question properly and then went on to ask it again in a long three part way. Am I psychic?
So yes he narked me.
All of which still leave the situation that if we left the EU for the EEA - the only rational choice and one that would not leave me too fussed - then we would in all main respects be no different to now. Except the EZ and the EU would continue to exist and exert an influence and we would have no votes and no vetoes.
Eg 'leave' have no answer about where we leave to that would be better.
Leave is just dimwitted tories looking to settle old scores. Labour are collapsed with laughter.
Yes, like the ones in the general election where Labour's fantastic 'ground game' really showed its worth
I see someone's been looking through 'top five cliched and incorrect arguments against a weaker currency'
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DjBNZWmaayA
Please feel free to purge the moderates.
A lot of inventing duplicity in this debate. There might well be some, but perhaps I have an optimistic view of human nature to think it cannot be as much as people claim.
I rather think you mean 'end badly for the tories' and as far as I am concerned by implication 'the country'. Cameron is after all rather sensibly offering to retire in a couple of years or so.
Cameron has renegotiated with the EU and has given a referendum and you suggest the party are going to stab him in the back and the man to do it is one of the most unpopular politicians in the country?
As I said in the previous thread, I rather think now its not leaders that go bonkers after 10 years but their party memberships. Corbynism points to that as well.
I would prefer to redefine 'moderate' than to give houseroom to the duplicitous or simply supine.
But, just to be clear, you are saying that the EU will insist on (a) EU citizens being able to claim benefirts; (b) EU citizens being able to move to the UK to look for work; and (c) EU citizens not requiring work permits. Which other trade agreements can you point to where the EU has demanded/successfully negotiated all those rights?
Ps no need to go straight to insults. I may not be "clever" but it was enough to get me a good degree from a good university, plus to make a living from providing counsel to the CEOs some of the biggest companies in the world.
Up until a few weeks ago he could never have dreamed of making such comments to Charles who he saw as a fellow Tory traveller. But now Charles has expressed reasoned doubts about Cameron's position he has become an enemy to be scorned and ridiculed.
Contrast with the reasoned positions taken by Big G or CarlottaVance along with plant of others in the REMAIN camp who go out of their way to try and back up their beliefs with factual evidence.
This Charming Man (wins Tory leadership) -->
You Just Haven't Earned It Yet Baby (2010 election result) -->
A Rush and a Push and the Land is Ours (2015 election result) -->
Please, please, please, let me get what I want (EU renegotiation) -->
Ask (referendum called)-->
Stop Me If You Think You've Heard This One Before (renegotiation deal oversold) -->
That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore (renegotiation deal mocked) -->
The Boy With the Thorn in His Side (Boris sides with Leave) -->
Sweet and Tender Hooligan (Boris gets kicked by the PM) -->
Paint a Vulgar Picture (Project Fear kicks off...) -->
Panic (polls go badly wrong on Referendum) -->
The World Won't Listen (the Voters spurn Remain) -->
Heaven Know's, I'm Miserable Now (the UK votes to Leave the EU) -->
I know It's Over (the Men in Grey Suits appear....) -->
Unloveable (Osborne tries to replace him...) -->
What Difference does It Make? (the PM's Autobiography is Released)
Back to the Old House (Lord Snooty of Chipping Norton take his seat) -->
Cemetry Gates.....
Year Democrat Republican
2008 532,468 445,677
2016 368,291 740,881
To me that's a fairly dramatic change, and similar things have happened in the 3 other states that have voted so far. some of it will be particular candidates that attract extra people to the poles, but it may also have a underling trend, after 8 years of Bush, Democrats where more fired up, now it is republicans.
What do PBs think is contributing to the change?
If I win both of those, they'll never let me bet with them again.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html
Barabarism Begins At Home (Lee Rigby)
I Started Something I couldn't Finish (Big Society)
Leave Will Tear Us Apart Again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yascVLup7FI
I need constant adoration or I'm quitting as Editor of Politicalbetting on Sunday or maybe I'll start doing threads exclusively on Scottish Independence and AV/Electoral reform.
Hillary is winning in solid red territory and Bernie is winning in blue states. Hillary is in massive trouble.
Trump may even exceed Jeremy Corbyn in my estimation if he beats her in the General.
He won't ever match the SNP though.