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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Founder of ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, quits the Tories over

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230

    Cyclefree said:



    You're right that it's silly to generalise about either side - there will be about 15 million people voting each way, and no doubt they will both include any number of both saintly and dodgy individuals. But for what it's worth I'd suggest that Britain is currently only in the upper middle of the European pack on liberalism, in the general terms that we tend to use it - attitudes to women, minorities, refugees, religious and non-religious freedom, gays and so on. Scandinavia, Germany and the Netherlands are on the whole more settled in their liberalism - each has its angry groups who dissent, but an amiable outward-looking attitude is the norm. Eastern Europe is decidedly less liberal, and other countries pretty mixed. Britain is liberal on free speech but we're still mixed-up kids over anything to do with sex, and religion of all kinds is still a biggish factor, if nothing like the US.

    [Snipped]

    It is difficult to change radically in any direction in the EU (Corbyn will find the same if he does by chance win), but some Leavers will see a mandate to strike out against what they see as political correctness and stifling preoccupation with individual rights.
    I don't know the countries you mention like you do so interesting take.

    I think that Britain has - on the whole - a very good record on the preservation of individual rights. The common law is very good at that in a way that a codified civil law system often isn't. We have still habeas corpus, for instance. Most of Continental Europe does not. French courts interpret the same provisions of the ECHR much more harshly than the English courts do. I think that remaining in Europe, particularly as / if(?) the EU extends its reach into the area of justice will result in our more liberal interpretations being watered down. So if anything on liberal issues such as these (and others, such as the collection of data, ID cards etc) I think that the EU is more of a threat than a protection.

    Religion is an issue because of the increase in a sizeable Muslim minority within Europe and the clashes there have been between a group which is religious and has a different view about the role of religion and the state which poses a challenge to the largely predominant view in Europe that religion is a private matter and the state should be largely secular. That is an issue which all European countries face and is not really an EU: In or Out issue though how the EU manage the migration from the Middle East will affect this. I have little faith in their ability to do so sensibly, frankly. But immigration is not - for me, anyway - a significant factor in this debate.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh, that's interesting. Thanx will keep an eye out.

    I've a bunch in my Amazon basket but haven't ordered them yet.

    A blog sounds most interesting and a good prod for me.

    I read a lot of Hadrians accounts in Latin at school and would love to learn more about this.

    Miss Plato, just wondering if you've got any classical history books yet (a little while ago you asked for recommendations).

    Also, I'm thinking of blogging about good starting points (as in, periods/people) and was wondering which time periods/people you looked at [if you were asking for recommendations blind, as it were, and don't have an answer, that's cool, I just thought it'd be useful to get your perspective].

    Not classical, but the Spectator review i read of "Tales from the Long Twelfth Century" intrigued - rather a lot happened between 1066 - 1215. Shame there are no comments on amazon yet..

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/the-realm-of-england-from-the-pennines-to-the-pyrenees/
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    Mr. Sandpit, wasn't it a 5am start last year as well?

    Grosjean for points in Australia is something I'll look at. He's the stand-out driver from Haas/Manor. If I were Sauber, I'd be nervous.
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    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

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    Woah

    SkyNews
    The Supreme Court has ruled the law on joint enterprise has been wrongly interpreted by criminal trial judges over the past 30 years

    Can lawyers of this parish advise what the significance of this is?
    Wasn’r someone who wasn’t at the scene, and anyway couldn’t see prosecuted under this rule?
    Kinda - joint enterprise where the authorities get people who weren't directly involved in a criminal event punished equivalently. An infamous use of the law was the Derek Bentley case.

    The US law has been used to ensure a someone who gave unknowningly his mate a lift to commit a crime got the same sentence. A number of spouses & girlfriends & housemates of drug dealers have been victimised in the US.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I would imagine that turnout will be an important factor in the EU Referendum. Only 34% voted in the last EU elections ... and UKIP + various obviously anti-EU parties got over 30% of votes. If the EU is as unimportant an issue as Fence-Sitter Meeks has repeatedly told us, then Leave have quite a lot going for them ....

    People don't vote in the European elections because they don't think the EP is important, don't know what it does and haven't heard of the strangely named political groupings within it. And, indeed, who knows what it does do? It's that place where Ian Paisley shouted "Antichrist" at the Pope, heh.

    The EU referendum is simple. People know what it means and it will dominate the news for weeks. They will vote.
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    There is a view on here that David Cameron will argue and fight for the agreement and then announce it as a victory for the UK. I think it is much more likely that he will present it as a good deal but that it is essential we continue to have influence within the EU to further develop the changes needed to become an organisation in tune with people. It is interesting how many Country's he has gained in support of change, notably Germany and Sweden, and I would expect a lot of the Leaders to be highly complimentary towards him in the many news conferences we will have in the next few days.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    In fairness to Ladbrokes they do actually lay proper size bets.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is a wonder, for allsorts of reasons

    Jonathan Nichols
    I'm staggered at some peoples naïveté. https://t.co/CvNzRpPTGf
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    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Blimey, some people have money to slosh around. Must have massive faith in Trump being the GOP candidate.
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    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Is it you?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Blimey, some people have money to slosh around. Must have massive faith in Trump being the GOP candidate.
    It's larger size than I'd bet, but I think its fine - not enough liquidity in Betfair to lay that size.
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    And when in practice Britain post-Leave became illiberal and much more closed to the world, all you would have done is enabled those who you dislike to achieve their aims.

    I see the question of EU membership as a means, not an end. I do not will the ends that the bulk of Leavers will. Therefore I cannot sensibly line up with them.

    It won't. Quite the opposite in fact. Leaving the EU will result in a significant number of current UKIP supporters leaving the party. There will still be a core of course but for those for whom the EU was the only reason to support UKIP, that reason will have disappeared. Indeed some of us have already decided that point has come. UKIP was never anything more than a tool for many of us and once it has served (or failed to serve) its purpose it should be discarded.

    And of course as someone has pointed out below, the idea that Europe is more tolerant than the UK is a complete myth.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Fair play to that guy, and to Shadsy & co for laying the bet.

    Remember what we all said here when someone walked into Ladbrokes in Glasgow with £30k last May?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I think that for a liberal Leaver, it's a genuine problem that there is no dominant reasonable Leaver at the moment, making it hard to predict who will emerge as a post-Cameron Leaver leader (I can't see the Tories picking a Remain champion if we've voted to leave) or what their agenda will be, but I'd expect Britain to drift to a harder right position. It is difficult to change radically in any direction in the EU (Corbyn will find the same if he does by chance win), but some Leavers will see a mandate to strike out against what they see as political correctness and stifling preoccupation with individual rights.

    That sounds rather like not trusting the voters to elect the government they want. If the public want to elect a bunch some way off to the right, that's democracy, in the same way as you hope the public might be convinced to elected a bunch some way off to the left (Corbyn). It would be rather unfortunate to leave the impression that the democratic will is only good is they vote for the right bunch of nutters ;)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Not even Latvian homophobes? :wink:
    Wanderer said:

    I would imagine that turnout will be an important factor in the EU Referendum. Only 34% voted in the last EU elections ... and UKIP + various obviously anti-EU parties got over 30% of votes. If the EU is as unimportant an issue as Fence-Sitter Meeks has repeatedly told us, then Leave have quite a lot going for them ....

    People don't vote in the European elections because they don't think the EP is important, don't know what it does and haven't heard of the strangely named political groupings within it. And, indeed, who knows what it does do? It's that place where Ian Paisley shouted "Antichrist" at the Pope, heh.

    The EU referendum is simple. People know what it means and it will dominate the news for weeks. They will vote.
  • Options

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Is it you?
    No. I don't feel confident enough about US politics to place bets of a tenth of that size. The risk of a Trump blow-out at some stage must be quite substantial, given his extraordinary past and style. He's tap-dancing on a high-wire, which is astonishing to watch but one false step...
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Lol

    Have I Got News For You
    As Asda starts selling cheap, imperfect 'wonky veg', Waitrose responds with expensive range of 'idiosyncratic artisan legumes'.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Is it you?
    No. I don't feel confident enough about US politics to place bets of a tenth of that size. The risk of a Trump blow-out at some stage must be quite substantial, given his extraordinary past and style. He's tap-dancing on a high-wire, which is astonishing to watch but one false step...
    I think Trump at 4-1 is fair value, but no more than that. If he is say Evens the nomination, and 6-4 to win the presidency once he has that ... well that sounds about right.
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    George Osborne's ratings as Chancellor have turned negative amid a sharp fall in confidence in the economy, it was revealed today.

    For the first time since the economic recovery began in spring 2013, more people are dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied, research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has found.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/confidence-in-osborne-drops-as-voters-lose-faith-in-the-economic-recovery-a3183491.html
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    Pulpstar said:

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Is it you?
    No. I don't feel confident enough about US politics to place bets of a tenth of that size. The risk of a Trump blow-out at some stage must be quite substantial, given his extraordinary past and style. He's tap-dancing on a high-wire, which is astonishing to watch but one false step...
    I think Trump at 4-1 is fair value, but no more than that. If he is say Evens the nomination, and 6-4 to win the presidency once he has that ... well that sounds about right.
    .. making the current Betfair 6.4ish good value
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Press Association
    Juncker 'confident' of deal over Britain's EU reforms bid https://t.co/cmpmZWlWYi https://t.co/3q2MsD8NLJ

    With timeline
  • Options

    @LadPolitics · 4m4 minutes ago

    A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt

    Is it you?
    No. I don't feel confident enough about US politics to place bets of a tenth of that size. The risk of a Trump blow-out at some stage must be quite substantial, given his extraordinary past and style. He's tap-dancing on a high-wire, which is astonishing to watch but one false step...
    Which is, I guess, what has been holding his price up but just because he's colourful doesn't mean he'll fall from grace.

    People have been saying that about him for months and he's still here.

    Full disclosure: my total cash bet exposure on the US election is about £600
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    Cyclefree said:



    I don't know the countries you mention like you do so interesting take.

    I think that Britain has - on the whole - a very good record on the preservation of individual rights. The common law is very good at that in a way that a codified civil law system often isn't. We have still habeas corpus, for instance. Most of Continental Europe does not. French courts interpret the same provisions of the ECHR much more harshly than the English courts do. I think that remaining in Europe, particularly as / if(?) the EU extends its reach into the area of justice will result in our more liberal interpretations being watered down. So if anything on liberal issues such as these (and others, such as the collection of data, ID cards etc) I think that the EU is more of a threat than a protection.

    Religion is an issue because of the increase in a sizeable Muslim minority within Europe and the clashes there have been between a group which is religious and has a different view about the role of religion and the state which poses a challenge to the largely predominant view in Europe that religion is a private matter and the state should be largely secular. That is an issue which all European countries face and is not really an EU: In or Out issue though how the EU manage the migration from the Middle East will affect this. I have little faith in their ability to do so sensibly, frankly. But immigration is not - for me, anyway - a significant factor in this debate.

    I do know some of the countries Nick is talking about very well and I have to say he paints an overly sympathetic and rosy picture - at least of Norway and the Netherlands. In both cases I have seen far more overt and casual racism in day to day life than I see in the UK. It does worry me that in both countries the liberalism and tolerance I so much admire is at best skin deep.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Hungary is lovely apparently.



    And when in practice Britain post-Leave became illiberal and much more closed to the world, all you would have done is enabled those who you dislike to achieve their aims.

    I see the question of EU membership as a means, not an end. I do not will the ends that the bulk of Leavers will. Therefore I cannot sensibly line up with them.

    It won't. Quite the opposite in fact. Leaving the EU will result in a significant number of current UKIP supporters leaving the party. There will still be a core of course but for those for whom the EU was the only reason to support UKIP, that reason will have disappeared. Indeed some of us have already decided that point has come. UKIP was never anything more than a tool for many of us and once it has served (or failed to serve) its purpose it should be discarded.

    And of course as someone has pointed out below, the idea that Europe is more tolerant than the UK is a complete myth.
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    Prediction

    Boris Johnson will say that we should REMAIN in the EU but continue to negotiate to get better terms (with him in charge).
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    New Thread New Thread

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146

    There is a view on here that David Cameron will argue and fight for the agreement and then announce it as a victory for the UK. I think it is much more likely that he will present it as a good deal but that it is essential we continue to have influence within the EU to further develop the changes needed to become an organisation in tune with people. It is interesting how many Country's he has gained in support of change, notably Germany and Sweden, and I would expect a lot of the Leaders to be highly complimentary towards him in the many news conferences we will have in the next few days.

    I would have had a lot more respect for Cameron if he had said:

    "Look, this deal is a placeholder. It has achieved some degree of short-term protection for the UK. But it has not got the changes that either the UK or the EU needs to function for our citizens into the twenty-first century. It has, however, provoked a much-overdue debate - and an acknowledgment from several states that this much more fundamental change is needed, EU wide.

    I intend to keep the EU's feet to the fire to make those changes, for the benefit of all. I therefore ask you to support me in this process, by voting for the UK to remain in the European Union. I will work to get a structure that delivers. And not just for the UK. Europe is starting to realise that what we are talking about has benefits to them too.

    But if progress is not forthcoming in the next couple of years - progress that brings real change in our relationship with the European Union - then the people of the UK deserve to have the chance to speak again on the matter."

    Instead, he tried to bamboozle us that he has already achieved that real change in our relationship with the European Union. And nobody is buying it.
This discussion has been closed.