Seems like a severe outlier poll, the other 2 that came today had Trump leads of 15 and 20 points, and a change of that magnitude would have been evident in the S.Carolina and Nevada polls today but Trump is leading them by an average of 18 and 26 points. Also Cruz has never been that high up nationally:
Seems like a severe outlier poll, the other 2 that came today had Trump leads of 15 and 20 points, and a change of that magnitude would have been evident in the S.Carolina and Nevada polls today but Trump is leading them by an average of 18 and 26 points. Also Cruz has never been that high up nationally:
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sanders
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
I have to say I am surprised it's taken you so long. You have to think Regan (sic) would be spinning in his grave.
I don't have to vote for almost 2 weeks. Once the onslaught hits Georgia next week I'll be going to events with every candidate - including Trump. Then I'll decide.
Seems like a severe outlier poll, the other 2 that came today had Trump leads of 15 and 20 points, and a change of that magnitude would have been evident in the S.Carolina and Nevada polls today but Trump is leading them by an average of 18 and 26 points. Also Cruz has never been that high up nationally:
I'm increasingly thinking that Trump will be the next POTUS. Although, I expect some conservatives will be annoyed when he turns out be pretty centrist in practice (I think that many of his supporters aren't especially conservative, except on immigration).
Indeed. Trump is a billionaire New York businessman. The idea he is some shrill evangelical Puritan, and afraid of migrants and feminism, is daft. He's a showman and a salesman.
In office I think he'd tall Big but walk Small, on most of these issues. I also think he'd be quite a good president - better than Obama - as he'd make white conservative Americans feel better about themselves, merely for being represented - and it's time that happened - and he'd be a pretty shrewd delegator.
I think George W Bush represented white conservatives did he not, regardless of the success of his presidency!
Fair point, but I think Bush was more of an Establishment dynast, and blue collar whites see Trump as more their man.
But I could be talking total fecking bollocks. I'm slightly drunk (just had my steak), and palpably chillaxing after sending off the final draft of THE FIRE CHILD.
da da da
etc
The Republican Establishment would go the mattresses to champion tax cuts for the richest 1%, while being quite content to amnesty illegal immigrants, if they could. That's about the opposite of what blue collar whites want.
I've gone off tax breaks and corporation tax cuts for the biggest international companies over the last few years. I suppose someone could argue that makes me less fiscally dry, but I'm not sure Thatcher would see it that way: she always had her eye out for the aspirational lower middle class.
Unless somebody can truly convince me cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% is going to make a material difference to all of us, which is Osborne's policy, I'd prefer to use the cash to cut the tax burden on the average working Joe.
Oh, and I would willingly sacrifice money, in terms of house value and tax, in order to ensure lower immigration too.
Suspect I am in a minority though. I think most people would prioritise personal wealth over other issues.
Forget Thatcher, Adam Smith warned about the power of corporations. It's not 'capitalism' to have massive corrupt corporations running the planet. Perhaps we need a new word/movement for people who want to prune the state but prune big business too. Capitalism and Liberalism are both tainted beyond rehabilitation as concepts.
It's a modernisers wet dream, but also a total myth.
In reality, Conservative voter retention was very high, they shed a bit to UKIP, but gained only c.20% of LD votes (which splintered a dozen ways) and hardly attracted any Labour votes at all, and vice-versa.
Those who think New Labour is a model to follow should look at what happened to New Labour.
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sanders
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
Rubio or Kasich would win the general election with few problems after 8 years of Obama, Trump gives Hillary and even Sanders a fighting chance
I'm not sure Kasich is going to last much longer. We'll see what happens in the SEC Primary - which oddly includes Minnesota.
Rubio managed to erase the last debate disaster with his performance last weekend. I've not seen any polls yet polling since the debate. They should be here either today or tomorrow.
A poll out today apparently shows Sanders and Clinton level in NV. I have no details.
It's a modernisers wet dream, but also a total myth.
In reality, Conservative voter retention was very high, they shed a bit to UKIP, but gained only c.20% of LD votes (which splintered a dozen ways) and hardly attracted any Labour votes at all, and vice-versa.
Those who think New Labour is a model to follow should look at what happened to New Labour.
Problem is too many can't think beyond right-left spectrum. Labour wasn't too far left or right in 2010 they just were too out of touch with working class.
It isn't because of his views that I think Montie's an idiotic drama queen, who has as much political nous in his entire body, as Sir Lynton Crosby has in one of his bogies.
The Tory party might be decent again once all the Euro loonies wanting to live in the past have left.
Anyone who disagrees with your point of view is a loony?
About as democratic as the EU that you love so much.
The matter of whether we remain in the EU is on no interest to the electorate and yet you elevate it to a matter of life or death. There are far more important things in politics - like the fact that for the first time more doctors have asked for a certificate to leave than have applied to medical school - yet you lot will not even rest when REMAIN wins convincingly at the referendum.
Are the electorate interested in immigration?
Immigration is not the EU. The Euro loons say that we'll be like Norway or Switzerland and still have all the benefits of the single market. Have you checked recently Norway or Switzerland's rights to the free movement of EU citizens? And they don't even have a say in it.
Lol so much ignorance.
See Articles 112-3 of the EEA Agreement.
To be used in an emergency - you want to keep those nasty foreigners out all the time. Won't be able to.
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sanders
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
Rubio or Kasich would win the general election with few problems after 8 years of Obama, Trump gives Hillary and even Sanders a fighting chance
I'm not sure Kasich is going to last much longer. We'll see what happens in the SEC Primary - which oddly includes Minnesota.
Rubio managed to erase the last debate disaster with his performance last weekend. I've not seen any polls yet polling since the debate. They should be here either today or tomorrow.
A poll out today apparently shows Sanders and Clinton level in NV. I have no details.
Personally I think Cruz wins Texas, Arkansas, maybe Oklahoma and perhaps some other southern and western states on Super Tuesday and once Rubio drops out after losing Florida on March 15th goes head to head with Trump until at least the end of April. Cruz will be helped by the fact he is most Republican voters second preference so he will close the gap with Trump as other candidates withdraw
I can see Sanders and Clinton battling all the way until June!
I have 1 bet on the American Presidency. I have bet a modest sum that Donald Trump is the next President. I am pretty comfortable with the bet. Rather more comfortable than I am with the idea to be honest.
I don'y understand - what are the things that Germany and France supplies to the UK that we can't make ourselves, and we need so badly we are prepared to give our children's country away for?
Another possible explanation for Trump's decline in the new NBC/WSJ poll is an increase in "very conservative" Republican voters from January's sample.
Cameron has played so many things wrong on this that it is hard to be sure. But would he really have given Boris the publicity of a meeting at Downing Street today, after which Boris said he could not say until the deal had been finalised, if he thought there was the remotest chance of Boris being on the other side of the argument?
I would be astonished. When Friday comes Boris will back Dave.
Another possible explanation for Trump's decline in the new NBC/WSJ poll is an increase in "very conservative" Republican voters from January's sample.
Cameron has played so many things wrong on this that it is hard to be sure. But would he really have given Boris the publicity of a meeting at Downing Street today, after which Boris said he could not say until the deal had been finalised, if he thought there was the remotest chance of Boris being on the other side of the argument?
I would be astonished. When Friday comes Boris will back Dave.
Indeed. It almost looks like a "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours" deal.
I don't think Boris wants to have to deal with the tiresome bores of Leave. He is too lazy.
Another possible explanation for Trump's decline in the new NBC/WSJ poll is an increase in "very conservative" Republican voters from January's sample.
I'm actually coming around to the same way of thinking.
If Osborne was paying attention to public perceptions he would lower small business Corp tax and keep big business tax at 20%....
He would win an awful lot of c1s tradesmen who have incorporated (on accountant advice, I'd imagine) and yet been clobbered by his dividend tax.
There are also a significant and increasing number who incorporate because large businesses refuse to use contrators who are not incorporated. As such if you want to continue working for clients you are forced to incorporate.
Your Finchley Road corruption story is over a year old. I'll not hold my breath, and I'd recommend you don't either.
There was nothing about in the mainstream media when the evidence was handed to the BBC in March of last year by Gordon Bowden, and they've sat on it since because its so explosive. If you don't consume any alternative media then you simply wouldn't have heard of it. Thank goodness for the internet and the tireless work over the past 14 years of Mr Bowden.
Dummy... It's all a hologram.
What an utter sad waste of space this site has become.
Amusing that 35% think Rubio is "too young" to be president but only 2% think that about Ted Cruz - Ted Cruz is barely 6 months older than Rubio.
Rubio just comes across as a shorty, moody, remote, robotic Hispanic with a chip on his shoulder.
Cruz is Grandpa Munster, a scuzzball with a terrible secret. He's not even eligible for the job. If he becomes remotely threatening to Trump, the Donald will skewer him with a court case [he has "standing" to do so, plus the moolah].
Kasich is a lightweight, Carson is in it to sell his books, and will never be the first black president...
Bush is toxic, because of his name - perhaps undeservedly so, but that's life.
Trump seems unstoppable, barring illness, an assassin or some unlikely loss of interest in the game...
“runaway trump, never goin’ back / right way on the outsider track / seems like rubio should be getting somewhere / somehow cruz is neither here nor there”
Thanks Nate. You've just crucified one of the soundtracks to my childhood.
@RupertMyers Dan Hodges left Labour because they'd gone extreme. @montie seems to be leaving the Tories because they've gone all centrist.
Montie is, to put it politely, not always right but again you have to ask if he would be doing this now if he thought a couple of big cabinet beasts were going to spring into action on Friday for Leave. I suspect his view is that the cabinet have been lassoed in ropes of silk and are all aboard the Remain bus.
@RupertMyers Dan Hodges left Labour because they'd gone extreme. @montie seems to be leaving the Tories because they've gone all centrist.
Montie's made himself look a bit of a chump. The problem is he's a rather predictable and clichéd character, and his behaviour was so signposted that no one wants to give him any satisfaction for having done it. I suggest he joins Corbyn's Labour; that would at least have the benefit of novelty.
Boris is dangerous. As likely to blow up in Leave's face as to help it imo. I would welcome his support for Leave with extreme caution.
But Boris defuses the Little Englander charge that Remain likes to bandy about.
On which point I notice that (unsurprisingly for anyone who has followed her career) Gisela Gschaider Stuart is very much in favour of LEAVE. Again not a typical Little Englander that REMAIN like to portray.
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
That was the key lesson of 2015. UKIP not such a threat after all. I really can't see the Tory party forgetting that lesson quite so quickly but the EU is like LSD for some of the membership and all reason can be forgotten.
I wonder if the SCOTUS vacancy will concentrate GOP minds on electability (assuming they decline any Obama nominee, which I expect). This could play favourably for Rubio.
Perhaps the candidates (on all sides) will end up having a SCOTUS-running mate as well as a VP (though in the Dem case, any such prospective candidate would likely be doomed as well).
Turns out that 2015 might have been one of those elections like 92 and 05 that it's better to lose.
I'll quite happily keep winning those elections the punditocracy say would be good to lose.
I'm reminded of Woody Allen in Manhattan:
Female Party Guest: I finally had an orgasm, and my doctor told me it was the wrong kind.
Isaac: Did you have the wrong kind? Really? I've never had the wrong kind, ever. My worst one was right on the money.
Good gag.
If these divisions continue, your election winning days will be behind you.
Referenda have a knack of killing parties.
Did someone in the SNP tell you that?
No, but The SDP and Slab did.
Four month campaign than a new re-unifying cabinet by the Summer will put turbo boosters under the Conservative party
This after Osborne was telling MPs on the fence they woud be ending their careers if they backed Leave??
I expect lots of changes post 23rd June and even Osborne maybe moved to foreign secretary. Who knows
Anyway may everyone have a good nights rest. Lots of politics to come over next few days and weeks. My only hope is that it is civil and each others arguments are respected. Abuse is wholly unnecessary
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
Except in the 2015 election, of the three main parties, the Lib Dems were seen as the most centrist, with Labour seen as the second-most centrist and the Conservatives as the most extreme party.
Yet the election results were the exact reverse of how centrist voters considered the parties to be.
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
That was the key lesson of 2015. UKIP not such a threat after all. I really can't see the Tory party forgetting that lesson quite so quickly but the EU is like LSD for some of the membership and all reason can be forgotten.
Eh? Almost the whole of the Tory campaign was based around trying to win back UKIP defectors, by playing up the threat of the SNP.
Where is there any discussion of what will happen if there is no deal tomorrow? Or, even more interestingly, if the talks are deemed by participants to have "broken down" and as a result of the failure of the negotiations Cameron backs Brexit? With Cameron backing Brexit, I wouldn't like to have invested in "Remain".
Just asking. Discussion of any scenario other than "Cameron comes back with a piece of paper" seems as thin on the ground as it was before the general election of any scenario other than a hung parliament.
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
Except in the 2015 election, of the three main parties, the Lib Dems were seen as the most centrist, with Labour seen as the second-most centrist and the Conservatives as the most extreme party.
Yet the election results were the exact reverse of how centrist voters considered the parties to be.
Now Corbyn is comfortably the most extreme and Cameron the more centrist
This after Osborne was telling MPs on the fence they woud be ending their careers if they backed Leave??
What a plonker he is, if that's true. So he's going to back Remain, no matter what? Great to hear for the analysts at the French and German embassies and foreign ministries.
Reality check: neither Cameron nor Osborne have said which side they'll back in the referendum yet. I have invested in Leave, being confident that the price of Leave will rise in the next few days and weeks, whatever happens in the vote itself.
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
Except in the 2015 election, of the three main parties, the Lib Dems were seen as the most centrist, with Labour seen as the second-most centrist and the Conservatives as the most extreme party.
Yet the election results were the exact reverse of how centrist voters considered the parties to be.
Now Corbyn is comfortably the most extreme and Cameron the more centrist
Indeed, but 2015 still shows how "the most centrist party ALWAYS wins" theory is idiotic.
The move to the centre ground will attract many more than those that leave
Except in the 2015 election, of the three main parties, the Lib Dems were seen as the most centrist, with Labour seen as the second-most centrist and the Conservatives as the most extreme party.
Yet the election results were the exact reverse of how centrist voters considered the parties to be.
Now Corbyn is comfortably the most extreme and Cameron the more centrist
Indeed, but 2015 still shows how "the most centrist party ALWAYS wins" theory is idiotic.
Yes although the LDs were in coalition with the Tories anyway. The more centrist party lost in 1979, 1974 and 1966 too
These are astonishing figures from Scotland and dreadful figures for Labour and Tory. The SNP increase is despite a calculated smear campaign from the Record and the Daily Mail, SLAB on 18 per cent on list vote will reduce them to a rump, Tories are going backwards after hyping that they would overtake Labour and some soft publicity for the totally mediocre Davidson.
I never thought any politician could replicate the Salmond overall majority in a proportional system victory of 2011. It looks like Sturgeon is going to do exactly that and more - whatever a man can do a women can do it better.
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sanders
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
He's waiting till he's won the GOP race to turn his fire on Hilary. I thought you were a Rubio-Kasich ticket man anyway ?
Tut, tut, Pulpstar. First thinking I live in GA (TimB); then thinking TimB is a Kasich/Rubio ticket man (MTimT)
Time for TimB to roll out his guide to British Tims living in the USA and how to tell them apart.
Fresh and serious news this evening on the Clinton email scandal.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Re the Republican nomination, as I'm bored of EuroRef.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
Trump is beatable in the general election, as both general election polls out today showed, indeed he is losing N Carolina to Sanders
Trump was in North Augusta SC yesterday. I used to live in Augusta GA, so I drove over for lunch with a buddy and went to it.
I thought Trump would have crashed and burned long ago, but he's proving us all wrong.
I left the event convinced that Trump's not a 'real' conservative. Much of what he said could be Democratic talking points - lied about WMD, relitigating Iraq etc etc - I could almost believe he's a DEM plant. He's even sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Cruz over an ad using Trump's own words to show his flips. The whole speech - as always unscripted - was a stream of invective towards his fellow Republican candidates. Hardly mentioned the DEMs at all.
Being there is very different to watching him on TV. It changed my opinion of him completely.
I am starting to think after yesterday that he could be a disaster for the Republicans.
He's waiting till he's won the GOP race to turn his fire on Hilary. I thought you were a Rubio-Kasich ticket man anyway ?
Tut, tut, Pulpstar. First thinking I live in GA (TimB); then thinking TimB is a Kasich/Rubio ticket man (MTimT)
Time for TimB to roll out his guide to British Tims living in the USA and how to tell them apart.
I think PB has moved homes a couple of times since then.
I've spent a few minutes looking for it but can't find it on PB. See what you can find - would be fun to repost it.
I never thought any politician could replicate the Salmond overall majority in a proportional system victory of 2011. It looks like Sturgeon is going to do exactly that and more - whatever a man can do a women can do it better.
As the old saying on Fred Astaire & Ginger Rogers - 'Ginger did everything Fred did, but backwards, and in heels'.
Joking apart there is little doubt Sturgeon is the most effective party leader in the UK today - the issue is how she keeps the Zoomers happy when 71% of them want a referendum in the next Parliament with a majority of them thinking one would be good for both the economy and Scottish business.....(and nearly half think SINDY in a few weeks would be better off...)
Fresh and serious news this evening on the Clinton email scandal.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Sanders is the least of her worries.
This feels a bit like "Dave shops at Morrisons" or "Dave on a horse" - for those who care (a tiny fraction ) serious - for the vast majority an irrelevance
Fresh and serious news this evening on the Clinton email scandal.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Sanders is the least of her worries.
This feels a bit like "Dave shops at Morrisons" or "Dave on a horse" - for those who care (a tiny fraction ) serious - for the vast majority an irrelevance
A huge FBI investigation involving 150 agents is an irrelevance? This is a use of the term irrelevance with which I am not familiar. This is potentially an existential threat to her campaign.
Fresh and serious news this evening on the Clinton email scandal.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Sanders is the least of her worries.
This feels a bit like "Dave shops at Morrisons" or "Dave on a horse" - for those who care (a tiny fraction ) serious - for the vast majority an irrelevance
A huge FBI investigation involving 150 agents is an irrelevance? This is a use of the term irrelevance with which I am not familiar. This is potentially an existential threat to her campaign.
Fresh and serious news this evening on the Clinton email scandal.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Sanders is the least of her worries.
This feels a bit like "Dave shops at Morrisons" or "Dave on a horse" - for those who care (a tiny fraction ) serious - for the vast majority an irrelevance
A huge FBI investigation involving 150 agents is an irrelevance? This is a use of the term irrelevance with which I am not familiar. This is potentially an existential threat to her campaign.
Comments
Cruz 28%
Trump 26%
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-overtakes-donald-trump-in-latest-republican-presidential-poll-1455746450?tesla=y
Euro deal charade pushed @montie over the edge he tells me. Many Tories feel the same.
In reality, Conservative voter retention was very high, they shed a bit to UKIP, but gained only c.20% of LD votes (which splintered a dozen ways) and hardly attracted any Labour votes at all, and vice-versa.
Those who think New Labour is a model to follow should look at what happened to New Labour.
Rubio managed to erase the last debate disaster with his performance last weekend. I've not seen any polls yet polling since the debate. They should be here either today or tomorrow.
A poll out today apparently shows Sanders and Clinton level in NV. I have no details.
Happens to the best of us
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Personally I think Cruz wins Texas, Arkansas, maybe Oklahoma and perhaps some other southern and western states on Super Tuesday and once Rubio drops out after losing Florida on March 15th goes head to head with Trump until at least the end of April. Cruz will be helped by the fact he is most Republican voters second preference so he will close the gap with Trump as other candidates withdraw
I can see Sanders and Clinton battling all the way until June!
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/700080774213562369
https://twitter.com/GutoBebb/status/700091062040338432
If the current poll is re-weighted to reflect the ideological composition from last month, the GOP horserace numbers are: Trump 26 percent, Cruz 25 percent, Rubio 18 percent and Kasich 13 percent — so Trump is ahead by one point, but still down from January.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296
I would be astonished. When Friday comes Boris will back Dave.
PPP / Quinnipiac are quite good I think.
I don't think Boris wants to have to deal with the tiresome bores of Leave. He is too lazy.
Trump 33
Cruz 20
Rubio 19
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Carson 5
http://www.theecps.com/
@RupertMyers Dan Hodges left Labour because they'd gone extreme. @montie seems to be leaving the Tories because they've gone all centrist.
https://twitter.com/Labourpaul/status/700053182790135814
Cruz is Grandpa Munster, a scuzzball with a terrible secret. He's not even eligible for the job. If he becomes remotely threatening to Trump, the Donald will skewer him with a court case [he has "standing" to do so, plus the moolah].
Kasich is a lightweight, Carson is in it to sell his books, and will never be the first black president...
Bush is toxic, because of his name - perhaps undeservedly so, but that's life.
Trump seems unstoppable, barring illness, an assassin or some unlikely loss of interest in the game...
“runaway trump, never goin’ back /
right way on the outsider track /
seems like rubio should be getting somewhere /
somehow cruz is neither here nor there”
Thanks Nate. You've just crucified one of the soundtracks to my childhood.
pff
For once, he may be right.
I've always said 'what's the point of the lib dems'.
I'm reminded of Woody Allen in Manhattan:
Female Party Guest: I finally had an orgasm, and my doctor told me it was the wrong kind.
Isaac: Did you have the wrong kind? Really? I've never had the wrong kind, ever. My worst one was right on the money.
Perhaps the candidates (on all sides) will end up having a SCOTUS-running mate as well as a VP (though in the Dem case, any such prospective candidate would likely be doomed as well).
If these divisions continue, your election winning days will be behind you.
Referenda have a knack of killing parties.
The Lib Dems died after losing the AV referendum that was their own making, but that's not why they died.
Latest Survation #SP16 Regional poll:
SNP 45% (+3)
LAB 18% (-1)
CON 15% (-2)
LD 6% (-2)
GRN 9% (-)
UKIP 6% (+1)http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/daily-record-poll-labour-still-7390532#Gy4ZtsFxR3quCrsT.97 …
Latest Survation #SP16 Constituency poll:
SNP 53% (+1)
LAB 22% (+1)
CON 16% (-)
LD 6% (-1)
OTHERS 3% (-1) pic.twitter.com/TIGiA4A2nt
Anyway may everyone have a good nights rest. Lots of politics to come over next few days and weeks. My only hope is that it is civil and each others arguments are respected. Abuse is wholly unnecessary
Yet the election results were the exact reverse of how centrist voters considered the parties to be.
He is one of the very, very few journalists who, in a single article, has profoundly changed my view on an issue.
This was the article:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2012/02/a-conservative-case-for-gay-marriage.html
Just asking. Discussion of any scenario other than "Cameron comes back with a piece of paper" seems as thin on the ground as it was before the general election of any scenario other than a hung parliament.
Any gossip from the Carlton Club?
Reality check: neither Cameron nor Osborne have said which side they'll back in the referendum yet. I have invested in Leave, being confident that the price of Leave will rise in the next few days and weeks, whatever happens in the vote itself.
These are astonishing figures from Scotland and dreadful figures for Labour and Tory. The SNP increase is despite a calculated smear campaign from the Record and the Daily Mail, SLAB on 18 per cent on list vote will reduce them to a rump, Tories are going backwards after hyping that they would overtake Labour and some soft publicity for the totally mediocre Davidson.
I never thought any politician could replicate the Salmond overall majority in a proportional system victory of 2011. It looks like Sturgeon is going to do exactly that and more - whatever a man can do a women can do it better.
Time for TimB to roll out his guide to British Tims living in the USA and how to tell them apart.
Remember the 22 emails that were too highly classified to be released in any form?
We now know that one of them concerned an Afghan National on the CIA payroll. The person was named in the email. Putting an asset at risk is an absolute no-no.
It's hard to see the FBI not recommend an indictment after this revelation - what do the other 21 emails contain?
Plus the public corruption part of the investigation gathers pace.
Sanders is the least of her worries.
I've spent a few minutes looking for it but can't find it on PB. See what you can find - would be fun to repost it.
Joking apart there is little doubt Sturgeon is the most effective party leader in the UK today - the issue is how she keeps the Zoomers happy when 71% of them want a referendum in the next Parliament with a majority of them thinking one would be good for both the economy and Scottish business.....(and nearly half think SINDY in a few weeks would be better off...)