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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Trump has got at least a 50% chance of winning the nomination
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voodoo poll in le figaro
2:1 they want the UK to leave.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualites/2016/02/17/01001-20160217QCMWWW00134-souhaitez-vous-que-la-grande-bretagne-reste-dans-l-union-europeenne.php
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35558846
Your Finchley Road corruption story is over a year old.
I'll not hold my breath, and I'd recommend you don't either.
His price for the Presidency is still great value.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35592466
'Friday 08:00: Discussions will continue over an "English Breakfast" if no agreement on the UK demands has been reached on Thursday'
A cross-party ticket would be unprecedented, though - not sure it's conceivable.
If he's saying that even at the worst possible case for Trump, Trump has a 50-50 chance to be the GOP nominee, then it took him 6 months to reach my position regarding the odds, his fanaticism clouded his judgement for too long.
In my estimation if Trump also wins S.Carolina he has a 2/3 chance, if he also wins Nevada that's a 90% chance (territory were only big personal issues like death will only prevent Trump from winning).
The only threat to Trump right now is Cruz, since he is the only one who can win primaries other than Trump.
Rubio doesn't have a regional base apart from Florida (even there Trump's lead is very big) nor the evangelicals, and the vote of elected officials is worth about the same in each state with little variation (with the exception of Virginia where most D.C politicians live and Trump is leading there too) .
I don't like Kasich. I think he is a deceptive political gutter snipe, but in the absence of someone I would be happy to vote for I suppose I might vote for him, but since he will not be the Republican candidate, who cares? I spent several days with Kasich at a meeting and was severely unimpressed.
Disagree that Cruz could get 30 plus, maybe in particularly favourable states.
Trump has got a bump from NH, especially considering the knock he took from Iowa.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
Trump looks nailed on to me.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/doublespeak-deciphered-andrew-lansley-dares-to-reveal-the-truth-about-david-camerons-eu-plan-10459808.html
Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 17
Kasich 9
Bush 8
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/55811f0b-8491-4ef3-972e-967977584c58.pdf
South Carolina SC House
Trump 34
Cruz 16
Rubio 15
Bush 15
Kasich 8
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitdGp6OVZxM2NFaGM/view
South Carolina ARG
GOP
Trump 33
Rubio 16
Cruz 14
Kasich 14
Bush 9
Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 31
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/screp.html
A republican will never run on a democratic ticket and vice versa.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093779/quotes?item=qt0482733
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-given-ten-days-read-jimmy-savile-review-document-made-public
GOP
Trump 29
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 7
Dems
Clinton 52
Sanders 33
General Election
Clinton 43% Trump 44%
Clinton 40% Rubio 49%
Clinton 43% Cruz 46%
Clinton 42% Bush 44%
Sanders 44% Trump 42%
Sanders 43% Cruz 43%
Sanders 43% Bush 42%
Sanders 41% Rubio 45%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_21716.pdf
Trump 39%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Carson 4%
Bush 4%
Dems
Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us02172016_Ut34wgb.pdf
But the flaw in all this is that his debate meltdown has dealt a big blow to his "I'm electable" argument. If a "moderate" (relatively speaking) wants to get the more purist voters to compromise, then they need at the very least to prove they're going to win the election to make that compromise worthwhile; if someone whose heart is with Trump/Cruz/Kasich fears that Rubio would just get eaten alive in the debates in the General Election anyway, then they'll figure they may as well just go with their heart.
Among Likely and Certain voters Ipsos MORI show a small shift to Leave from last month. Both numbers were 52/41 then.
He is also one of the few Republicans to have acknowledged climate change as a problem
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/225073-kasich-touts-climate-belief-but-wont-apologize-for-coal
Sounds pretty Cameroon to me!!
Trump also has a much higher net worth, $4.5 billion to Dubya's $35 million
My speculation about why the odds are so out of line with reality is simply a combination of people needing time to accept change and not paying attention enough to the race.
We can take all the favourites since 2012 and we will see that it took a long time for the odds to shift and come in line with the polling, in the case of Christie and Bush it took years for reality to sink in the betting markets.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/269629-nevada-dem-delegates-may-come-down-to-luck-of-the-draw
"Iowa Democrats had their coin toss, but Nevada Dems will break caucus ties on Saturday in true Las Vegas fashion — using a deck of cards.
When Democratic caucusgoers gather throughout the state on Saturday, each precinct will have an unopened, state party-supplied deck of cards and rules on how to settle ties between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders."
Unless somebody can truly convince me cutting corporation tax from 20% to 18% is going to make a material difference to all of us, which is Osborne's policy, I'd prefer to use the cash to cut the tax burden on the average working Joe.
Oh, and I would willingly sacrifice money, in terms of house value and tax, in order to ensure lower immigration too.
Suspect I am in a minority though. I think most people would prioritise personal wealth over other issues.
If Cameron really wanted to cut EU migration he should have made his deal contingent on all other EU countries committing to stop making their economies a sack of shite.
In the same way we will consistently be outvoted if the eurozone federates on law, we will be consistently inundated with jobseekers whenever it buggers up, or our cycles go out of kilter.
Which will be quite often.
If Osborne was paying attention to public perceptions he would lower small business Corp tax and keep big business tax at 20%....
He would win an awful lot of c1s tradesmen who have incorporated (on accountant advice, I'd imagine) and yet been clobbered by his dividend tax.
What an utter sad waste of space this site has become.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbcOaHbXEAAlKMX.png
Now PPP came out, with Sanders ahead in Vermont and Massachusetts and 2 points behind Hillary in Oklahoma, which is what you would expect if Sanders would be getting close nationally.
Using that table, if Sanders is declared the winner in Nevada then he will need Michigan on March 8th and then Illinois on March 15th will be the deciding state for the Dem. nomination.
If Sanders wins those 3 he's got the nomination, if he loses even one of them then Hillary wins.
https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/public-deficit-percentage-gdp
We are pursuing an expansionary policy while Europe has tightened up significantly. Debt must eventually be paid back. The migration of EU workers is acting as a safety valve to both us and the EU. Against worsening social unrest there and against inflationary pressures here.
One other point: those 1 in 9 workers on foreign passports work alongside British workers, there is a counterbalancing friendship and fellow feeling with other workers to any rivalry or resentment. The WWC is neither as monolithic nor uniformly hostile as some pb kippers would have it.
Or to put it another way, they are both on the verge of declaring they will campaign to leave the EU, in opposition to the prime minister.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-02-17/boris-and-gove-leaning-towards-the-exit/
Lock in the profit on the field or gamble on it going lower for a bigger reward?
@JournoStephen: The "my grievance is bigger than yours" school of Scottish nationalism at its most exquisitely crass. https://t.co/SIipHJdU1b
Trump +532.09
Cruz +697.86
Bush -999.31
That's what I'm doing right now. (I've made a few trading errors this cycle but haven't we all)
Level Rubio off imo. He is too short - but he goes shorter is Bush ends his campaign after South Carolina.
Presumably he lied in all the previous videos he have about his abortion views because...
They want Boris to lead Leave.
They will be reminding everyone of this. I'm sure this will go down well with the WWC
Boris Johnson backs call for one-off amnesty for illegal immigrants
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10154389/Boris-Johnson-backs-call-for-one-off-amnesty-for-illegal-immigrants.html
I'm convinced that May, Gove and Johnson all care solely about their careers, and think very little about what is actually best for the country.
Good luck with that.
And why not.... There is not much difference between being in the EFTA/EEA as opposed to the EU - so let's play politics with it.
I would make Trump an 80-85% chance for the nomination. He's going to win the next two states at a canter, and will win the majority of states on Super Tuesday.
Cruz is unelectable outside the deep South and a few evangelical states. He probably won't even win Texas.
None of the seven dwarves has made any progress. Rubio, had it not been for "that debate" might have had a chance, but not now.
And I'd reckon he's better than 50s against Hillary. In fact, he should probably be favourite for the Presidency right now.
I'll believe it when I see it. Although I do think Osborne will plan for at least one "seeded" Leaver, who can come out for his leadership later on, thereby "uniting" the party.