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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris not the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories
@LordAshcroft on mega-poll: "having Boris as leader would not make the things that stop people voting Tory go away"
http://t.co/5LNx7eLJLQ
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In a 3 way choice between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg, Cameron would win by miles.
Amongst LD voters, Miliband is behind Cameron and Johnson!
Cameron is by far the best bet for the Conservatives and he has a better chance of winning in 2015 than many people think.
GM was being 'discussed' here last night (although I use the word rather hesitantly). Coincidentally, the latest issue if IEEE Spectrum magazine has an article on GM food, along with several other articles on the present state and future potential of global food:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/magazine/
As a matter of theory the Conservatives should not choose a leader to please themselves but to tempt others. It worked well for Labour with Tony Blair.
In practice, the polling is more a reflection of public frivolity.
Note that one in five Labour voters prefer David Cameron or Boris Johnson over Ed Miliband. Only 1% of Conservative voters prefer Ed Miliband.
Do you think George Osborne is doing a good
job or a bad job as Chancellor of the
Exchequer?
Good: 25(+3)
Bad: 52(-2)
DK: 23(-5)
Which of these would make the better
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
GO; 32(+4)
EdB: 23(-3)
DK: 45 (0)
Who would you most trust to make the right
decisions about dealing with the government's
deficit?
Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
Labour: 23(-3)
Neither: 34(0)
DK: 11(+2)
Who would you most trust to make the right
decisions about improving the state of the
economy?
Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
Labour: 25(-3)
Neither: 31(+1)
DK: 11(+1)
Cameron also has a small net 10% lead over Miliband among UKIP, where I suspect Boris is acting as none-of-the-above, though equally, Boris' different political style is likely to appeal to anti-politicians. Given that Boris won't be on the ticket (technically, none will but that's not how people vote), what will the 64% of UKIP-for-Boris voters default to?
I think Dave can be reasonably happy with these numbers.
Here are some statements that different people
make about different political parties. In each
case, which party do you think it applies to
most - the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal
Democrats?
The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind
of society I want
Cons: 26(-1)
LAB: 25(-2)
LD: 11(0)
None: 24(+2)
DK: 14(0)
It is led by people of real ability
Cons: 20(+1)
LAB: 13(-2)
LD: 4(0)
None: 47(+2)
DK: 16(0)
Its leaders are prepared to take tough and
unpopular decisions
Cons: 45(+2)
LAB: 9(-2)
LD: 4(-1)
None: 26(+1)
DK: 15(-1)
It seems to chop and change all the time: you
can never be quite sure what it stands for
Cons::22(-2)
LAB: 25(-2)
LD: 28(+1)
None: 9(+2)
DK: 17(+2)
YouGov
Which of these would make the better
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
GO; 32(+4)
EdB: 23(-3)
DK: 45 (0)
Who would you most trust to make the right
decisions about dealing with the government's
deficit?
Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
Labour: 23(-3)
Neither: 34(0)
DK: 11(+2)
Who would you most trust to make the right
decisions about improving the state of the
economy?
Con/LD Coalition: 33(+1)
Labour: 25(-3)
Neither: 31(+1)
DK: 11(+1)
On the face of it, Boris is the answer to the question: "How do the Conservatives win back UKIP voters without alienating centrist swing voters?"
UKIP voters split 35-15 as more likely to vote Conservative with Boris as leader and the Lib Dem split is also positive: 24-22.
How else do the Conservatives square that circle?
If it were to happen I'd suspect the Tory Chief Whip of putting sedatives in the drink at the Commons bar.
If they can avoid a euro fiasco and any more self inflicted wounds like gay marriage then they can win.
But unfortunately with the Romanian a d Bulgarian arrivals next year (which will be all over the tabloids no matter what is happening on the ground), and the Euro elections, self inflicted wounds are on the cards.
The figures do confirm that Ed is crap though.
I'm sure BoJo ain't perfect but he wouldn't be competing against perfection. For Tory leadership he'd be against May or Hammond or Greening or some such - and he clearly outguns all the Tory opposition by a wide margin. As Tory Leader he'd be up against PM Redward and Chancellor Loretta - of whom he'd make easy mince meat.
Osborne chosen over Balls in every group (apart from Labour voters)
The coalition chosen over Labour on the deficit and the economy generally in every group (apart from Labour voters)
Although there is a big "neither" or "none of the above" contingent as always amongst Lib Dems and Ukip voters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2348948/Armed-police-officer-snapped-parking-double-yellow-lines-cycle-lane--stop-SANDWICH.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Meanwhile, the Sun's Osborne hatefest continues:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4987579/Cabinet-heavyweight-Pickles-gets-revenge-on-Chancellor-by-tweeting-pic-of-himself-munching-a-healthy-salad.html
He has a far better chance of winning a third term as mayor than ever being PM or even LOTO. He can earn more money as mayor as well.
The further away one travels from London the less appealing the prospect of a Boris PM is to people. Let's just accept its going to be Dave v Ed, Jeffrey/Gideon/George v Ed and somewhere in the background jumping up and down to be seen and heard Nick when it comes to GE2015.
Interesting that we now know in recent years there has been a single recession, the Gordon, Ed and Ed one and it was far worse than hitherto believed. We have had no recession under the present government.
Why has our independent, free media buried the official news from the ONS that the "2nd recession" never happened on page 4 or worse.
“Boris was the one smoking behind the bike sheds, Cameron was the one reporting him to the teacher. That’s the impression you get.” Huntingdon
“He doesn’t present himself as being a stuck-‐up toff. You don’t have to speak like a cockney to be in touch with people.” Huntingdon
“I honestly don’t think I have heard him express much in the way of political views.
He’s more of a personality.” Eastleigh
“We don’t know what he thinks.
That’s why some people are drawn to him.” Nuneaton
“You wouldn’t want him to run the country.
He’s OK to run London, and all those crazy people” Leeds
"George Osborne @George_Osborne 15h
Nice one Eric"
Labour needs to be able to laugh at itself . It has become humourless and petty .
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2350039/Twitter-users-mock-Eric-Pickles-tweeted-picture-healthy-lunch.html
Classy of Prescott to make fatty jokes......
Are these 2010 LibDems or current?
At "good evening" everyone is his. For the next 30 minutes he thrills and delights, they would have his babies. Even the women. Everyone would vote for him to do anything. Political allegiances are forgotten.
And then he finishes and moments later, the euphoria evaporates. Normal life goes on. No impression made other than some witticisms that people struggle to remember.
Not PM. Ever.
Fail, Fail, Fail, Succeed
Time for Balls to take one for the team - how about by picking up a few more speeding tickets?
But the clown prince will not be PM.
Wildly off topic.
If you have purchased something online. In this case a waterproof mobile phone case which is sold on their website as being compatible with my hand set.
Upon receiving the item you discover that it is not long or deep enough for the hand set.
Should the consumer be liable for the postage or any handling charge as the item isn't faulty? Merely misadvertised and missold.
Nationwide says house prices rose 1.9% yoy.
I think Eric may have noticed that he is a little overweight, and doesnt strike me as a shrinking violet who cannot take a bit of gentle teasing.
He is quite capable of a bit of banter himself, and is one of the most competent ministers. He is a substantial asset to the party.
On the Boris matter: The PB Cameroons are frightened of Boris in that if he was PM he might do something brilliant for this country, and if the Cameroons are anything, they hate brilliance, innovation and genius.
really ? such as ?
wrt Boris? Nope - they (the Cameroons) are concerned that people's eyes will be taken off the ball and be distracted by an ultimately vacuous Boris diversion.
Just like the ridiculous issue of Osborne and the train ticket, which you wet yourself over, and which turned out to be a journalist (ahem) exaggerating.
You repeatedly claim Osborne is hiding when he is not seen (and even when he has a good excuse not to be seen, like being elsewhere). You have also claimed that he takes the glory of good news.
It is clear that any minor piece of trivia regarding Osborne will be twisted by you into ammunition against him.
Like him crying at a funeral. Remember that one? ;-)
Must agree with the suggestion Boris isn't a panacea for Conservative ills. Whilst very likeable the polling suggests he may not be an electoral asset beyond the south-east, which is very blue anyway, and I doubt that the PCP would be inclined to be led by Boris.
Mr. Jessop, the crying at a funeral attack on Osborne was absolutely deranged.
In unrelated news: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/sport/sport-headlines/british-grass-defeats-foreigners-2013062773903
Edited extra bit: just checked the forecasts, which suggest rain today, but not Saturday or Sunday.
Rather a sad case really. Politically murdering his brother so publically and then we have a four year spectacle of him consigning the Labour party to another historic defeat.
And then there's his cheer leaders in the country like poor Nick Palmer watching this slow motion car crash desperating clinging to the odd decent mid term poll and hoping above hope that Ed is not a later day incarnation of Neil Kinnock.
Reaches for hanky ....
If I'm working late or to an important deadline I think I'd call in something of better quality than Mucky Ds.
And ok the photo might not have authenticity stamped all over it, but I thought it was a bit of harmless fun really. And Pickles riposte is genuinely funny.
Good laughs all round. Heaven knows there's enough bad news out there.
Digest?
We're still adding to it and for the next course the government wants to switch back to another round or ten of private sector borrowing.
Britain's Mr Creosote event is yet to happen.
We're still adding to it and for the next course the government wants to switch back to another round or ten of private sector borrowing.
Britain's Mr Creosote event is yet to happen.
"digest" fair comment. On current trends we can't start to digest it until 2018.
' The chronically moronic Sally Bercow tweeted “Osborne is toast!” and predicted “Ed Balls will be *fantastic* Shad Chancellor
Ed Balls it is to be remembered is yet another of the Oxford PPE alumni.
It to a tiny little weeny extent backfired but the abiding image will be a guy in shirtsleeves, working, having food at his desk (as do untold millions of other workers).
Your usual acuity is here for some reason absent.
BASILDON - Billericay East: 29.84%
DARTFORD - Newtown: 22.71%
PLYMOUTH - Southway: 26.45%
RUTLAND - Ketton: 17.47%
SOUTH TYNESIDE - Cleadon and East Boldon: 26.06%
SOUTH TYNESIDE - Primrose: 34.64%
WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn: 25.97%
If two days after a CSR all people are worrying about is his choice of late night snack, I doubt Osborne will be too worried..
Brave of Prescott to be re-tweeting fatty jokes....
" A Future with PPE - PPE - University of Oxford www.ppe.ox.ac.uk/index.php/a-future-with-ppe
PPE offers a good preparation for a wide variety of careers, many linked to ... Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly, David Miliband, Ed Miliband, Jacqui Smith ... "
Is this desperate bunch really meant to be an elite trained for the highest roles in government ?
If Osborne did not tweet, you would just accuse him of hiding. In your eyes he cannot win: anything he does is open to misinterpretation. Sadly, this means when he does do things wrong, it gets lost in your noise. "Oh, it's just Tim and his Osborne obsession again."
The fact is, you might as well shut up about anything personal about Osborne (policies are fine): you have shown yourself to be incapable of rational thought when it comes to him.
Like the crying episode, ffs.
UKIP votes: 3,705
Total votes: 13,863
UKIP percentage: 26.73%
UKIP overall performance, including Newark & Sherwood where they didn't stand:
UKIP votes: 3,705
Total votes: 15,719
UKIP percentage: 23.57%
Were you a councillor for the ward?
maybe Oxford should drop the PPE tag and rebrand as ENA M.A. since all they produce is pains in the arse.
Rutland motto - Multum in Parvo - Much in Little ..... Well they do have Hunky Dinky Dunky as their MP - Oh er Missus !!
It may have been that the Independent candidate took votes that would otherwise have gone to UKIP in Rutland. That would be less likely to happen in a general election.
looks like Francois needs to get some burgers in. France heading into a deeper recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10147219/Tempers-fray-in-France-as-drastic-cuts-loom.html
I believe there are McDonalds elsewhere, but I can't vouch for things outside the Square Mile. In backward suburbs like Westminster, perhaps not.
"The dust is settling on the spending review, and it has survived first contact with the IFS: there's no sign of it falling apart so far. Conservative MPs who in the past have been swift to criticise the Chancellor are keeping their counsel. Mr Osborne is setting the terms of the debate even if, as Fraser Nelson says, he doesn't seem to quite realise it yet."
Held 3, lost 3 wasn't it ?
And one of the holds was without UKIP opposition.
There is nothing to argue with your point about OEs. It beggars belief that they can be so blind as to keep appointing such types. A case where a (non-OE) quota system would be at least expedient.
So much wrong with the presentation. The content, however, is more or less spot on. And to answer your point about the timing of their infrastructure announcements (2015 vs 2010), I don't think it would have flown in (at least) the capital markets for a new, unproven chancellor in a highly indebted country to come to power announcing huge fiscal expansion.
Now the markets know he is serious about deficit reduction (ok, "attempted" deficit reduction) so are likely to cut him some slack when he wants to spend a bit.
France is in very very deep doodoo. They've been utter lefties for too long and have a deeply entrenched anti-business culture across society. And now that the 'later' part of 'sooner or later' is here, the fact that sooner or later socialism kills your private sector and makes the public sector unaffordable is dawning on them. But decades of this can't be reversed quickly. French GDP will contract for quite a while and the deficit will balloon or riots will decorate the necessary rebalancing. Their social model, economic model and exceptionalist worldview is dead - and the realisation of this will be a new horror for the frogs.
You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.
Really - what does he have to look forward to before May 2015 apart from his photo in a light bulb ?
I suspect that policy would lose the party more votes than it wins, and wouldn't help it win any seats.
I'll check on the candidate a bit later but it would be very surprising if they were a fervent europhile in a place like Rutland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23083003
I'd far sooner be Irish than Spanish or Italian!
"As fascinating as the news itself was how Webber communicated it. The Australian had flown to Austria on Wednesday to inform Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz in person but did not tell team boss Christian Horner until about 10 minutes before the announcement was due to be made - about the time BBC Sport was breaking the story. There were a lot of people wondering why Webber left it so late to tell Horner - Webber said he 'informed Christian before the announcement, which contractually I should do' - to which no answer was forthcoming. But more interesting than that is why did Mateschitz - who had been kept in the loop by Webber on his thinking for the past few months - not tell him either?"
The overlap between UKIP-inclined voters and those who most strongly back the
idea of Boris as Prime Minister is surely no coincidence. The fact that Boris
has been among the most outspoken supporters of immigration and gay marriage
shows that this is nothing whatsoever to do with policy. Instead it shows that
people’s stated desire to see him in Number 10 says less about Boris himself
than it says about them, and crucially their own view of politics and political
leadership.
Those for whom politics is the hard grind of sorting out difficult problems most
value competence and statesmanship and want to be able to picture their leaders
in the company of Obama and Merkel. (That is not to say Boris lacks these
qualities, rather that they are not the things they most closely associate with
him). Existing Conservative supporters largely fall into this group; they have
after all signed up to the drudgery of deficit reduction. This helps explain
why, adore Boris though they do, they much prefer the idea of Cameron as Prime
Minister, and fewer of them than average think the party would be more likely to
win an election with Boris as leader.
The idea of Prime Minister Boris appeals most to those who have the most jaded
view of what politics can achieve for the country and themselves. Though they
often think Boris is cleverer and more competent than he is sometimes given
credit for, this is beside the point. It is the antithesis of the idea that
serious times call for serious people; rather, in an age when our problems seem
beyond the capacity of governments to solve, we might as well have a leader who
cheers us all up.
The Laura Robson unofficial fan page:
http://www.laura-robson.net/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/lhorreur-goldman-finds-europes-two-worst-capitalized-banks-france
...and France is looking more like the one that might break the Euro's back than even Spain or Italy. If a 'core' EZ 'big boy' is that deeply screwed I can't see how the Krauts will hold it all together...
(especially if you take a look at Germany's nightmarish Japanese style demographics)
The number of pensioners is on the rise, so we need more people to work and pay taxes. Simple.
I fill in the yougov on-line surveys from time to time - for amusement and for the odd few pence they give me.
On the voting issues, I find it odd that they don't name-check UKIP. I'm down as a 2010 LibDem voter (which is true) but I thought I'd vote for UKIP once in their survey just to see how easy it was, and I found that it interfered with my chain of thought.
It's odd but I can see why they could be under-counting the real UKIP vote. And for anyone who's not a committed party supporter (like myself), the NOTA vote is likely to be artificially down.
Pure anecdote - just like the feeling that some Labour voters have switched to UKIP - but if I were a professional pollster, one that I'd look at.
Personally the interesting things here are the relationship between the party supporters and the party leaders. Not great reading for the Reds.
For example the 24% of Labour voters who favour another party leader for PM is clearly an opportunity. Equally the split of the LibDem voters is also an opportunity for the Blue team.
Any markets on whether Balls will be SCotE at the end of the year ?