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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

This is how the New York Times is reporting the ensuing battle in Washington over the appointment of a replacement on the Supreme Court for Justice Scalia who died over the weekend.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    First!
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    FPT

    Elizabeth Warren puts the GOP in its place:

    The sudden death of Justice Scalia creates an immediate vacancy on the most important court in the United States.

    Senator McConnell is right that the American people should have a voice in the selection of the next Supreme Court justice. In fact, they did — when President Obama won the 2012 election by five million votes.

    Article II Section 2 of the Constitution says the President of the United States nominates justices to the Supreme Court, with the advice and consent of the Senate. I can't find a clause that says "...except when there's a year left in the term of a Democratic President."

    Senate Republicans took an oath just like Senate Democrats did. Abandoning the duties they swore to uphold would threaten both the Constitution and our democracy itself. It would also prove that all the Republican talk about loving the Constitution is just that — empty talk.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-scalia-supreme-court-seat_us_56c0a82be4b0c3c55051c5e1?cps=gravity_5059_7045344350249396103

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Warren is right on the money. Just when you thought the Republicans couldn't get any less attractive as a party....
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Warren is right on the money. Just when you thought the Republicans couldn't get any less attractive as a party....

    Maybe, but she is ranting in the wrong paper, HuffPo is mostly read by people that weren't even thinking of voting Republican anyway.
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    Indigo said:

    Warren is right on the money. Just when you thought the Republicans couldn't get any less attractive as a party....

    Maybe, but she is ranting in the wrong paper, HuffPo is mostly read by people that weren't even thinking of voting Republican anyway.
    It was a comment on her own Facebook page which has gone viral.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    So what's happened in the past when a SCOTUS position has come up in the final year of a President?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    edited February 2016
    tlg86 said:

    So what's happened in the past when a SCOTUS position has come up in the final year of a President?

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/feb/14/marco-rubio/do-presidents-stop-nominating-judges-final-year/

    Our ruling

    Rubio said, "There comes a point in the last year of the president, especially in their second term, where you stop nominating" both Supreme Court justices and Court of Appeals judges. Rubio suggested that point is now.

    The chance for an outgoing president to make a Supreme Court nomination in his last year in office has only happened once in the past century, in 1968.

    But presidents do continue to nominate appellate judges in their final year. Out of the last four presidents who served two terms, all of them made nominations to the Court of Appeals (as well as the District Courts) in their last year.

    We rate Rubio’s claim False.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
    The great irony is that - if the Republicans attempt to hold up the confirmation of someone like Sri Srivinasan - then the next President is more likely to be a Democrat. And there has to be a pretty high chance that the next President gets to appoint two Supreme Court Justices.
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    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
    I know. But if Obama gets an appointee through who turns out more Liberal than the Senate anticipated the 'no autopsy, only 15 miles from the Mexican border' will be off and running....

    This took 10 seconds of googling:

    http://crooksandliars.com/2016/02/alex-jones-was-antonin-scalia-murdered
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Indigo said:
    Starting to wonder what I pay the council tax for unless it's to keep them in the pensions and salaries to which they have become accustomed.

    Like I said this is kid gloves time from the EU, Just wait until the vote is won for remain the demands will be utterly merciless and overwhelming.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
    The great irony is that - if the Republicans attempt to hold up the confirmation of someone like Sri Srivinasan - then the next President is more likely to be a Democrat. And there has to be a pretty high chance that the next President gets to appoint two Supreme Court Justices.
    Funnier still, stopping Obama appointing a Judge would most likely hand the task to Sanders, Clinton or Trump - none of them socially conservative.
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    Washington: There are two competing theories afoot in America at the moment about how the conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin​ Scalia​ died.

    There are those, like the doctor who wrote his death certificate, who believe the rotund 79-year-old died in the night of a heart attack suffered during a quail-hunting holiday in Texas.

    Then there are those who believe he was murdered, perhaps by a CIA agent using a "heart attack gun", probably working on the orders of President Barack Obama, who is in all likelihood some sort of Muslim sleeper agent born in either Kenya or Indonesia, but certainly not in Hawaii as is stated on his birth certificate.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/antonin-scalias-death-sets-off-hysteria-conspiracy-theories-20160215-gmu75m.html#ixzz40DXo8ZRo
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Washington: There are two competing theories afoot in America at the moment about how the conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin​ Scalia​ died.

    There are those, like the doctor who wrote his death certificate, who believe the rotund 79-year-old died in the night of a heart attack suffered during a quail-hunting holiday in Texas.

    Then there are those who believe he was murdered, perhaps by a CIA agent using a "heart attack gun", probably working on the orders of President Barack Obama, who is in all likelihood some sort of Muslim sleeper agent born in either Kenya or Indonesia, but certainly not in Hawaii as is stated on his birth certificate.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/antonin-scalias-death-sets-off-hysteria-conspiracy-theories-20160215-gmu75m.html#ixzz40DXo8ZRo

    One of those is slightly less convincing than the other.

    I mean seriously, who would go to Texas to go quail-hunting? :p
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    "The modern right wing … feels dispossessed: America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it and to prevent the final destructive act of subversion.....

    The old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals; the old competitive capitalism has been gradually undermined by socialistic and communistic schemers; the old national security and independence have been destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners as of old but major statesmen who are at the very centres of American power."


    Richard Hofstadler The Paranoid Style in American Politics 1964

    http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/

    Not just America......and not just fifty years ago......
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2016
    RobD said:

    Washington: There are two competing theories afoot in America at the moment about how the conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin​ Scalia​ died.

    There are those, like the doctor who wrote his death certificate, who believe the rotund 79-year-old died in the night of a heart attack suffered during a quail-hunting holiday in Texas.

    Then there are those who believe he was murdered, perhaps by a CIA agent using a "heart attack gun", probably working on the orders of President Barack Obama, who is in all likelihood some sort of Muslim sleeper agent born in either Kenya or Indonesia, but certainly not in Hawaii as is stated on his birth certificate.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/antonin-scalias-death-sets-off-hysteria-conspiracy-theories-20160215-gmu75m.html#ixzz40DXo8ZRo

    One of those is slightly less convincing than the other.

    I mean seriously, who would go to Texas to go quail-hunting? :p
    Perhaps the invitation said Dan Quayle – oops, I may have started another conspiracy theory!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Morning. My guess is that Obama will try and appoint someone relatively centrist and uncontroversial, purely to embarrass the GOP as they try and stop the move. This could play into Trump's hands as a GOP outsider if he tells them to grow up and behave like adults.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
    I know. But if Obama gets an appointee through who turns out more Liberal than the Senate anticipated the 'no autopsy, only 15 miles from the Mexican border' will be off and running....

    This took 10 seconds of googling:

    http://crooksandliars.com/2016/02/alex-jones-was-antonin-scalia-murdered
    Scalia could have been 105, snorted ten lines of coke, drunk a bottle of Jack Daniels and died wrestling an alligator for a bet. The same paranoid loons would be writing the same shit.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Catching up on yesterday, great results for Liverpool and England rugby, shame they were on the one day of the year that all the men get kidnapped and sent to the kitchen!

    England cricket again showing that in limited overs matches, it is vitally important to use all the available overs. They really should have won the 1D series after being 2-0 up.

    Good news for the govt, or rather bed news avoided, with the decision of HSBC not to relocate.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Morning. My guess is that Obama will try and appoint someone relatively centrist and uncontroversial, purely to embarrass the GOP as they try and stop the move. This could play into Trump's hands as a GOP outsider if he tells them to grow up and behave like adults.

    The Dems have to decide what their strategy is, do they want to sink Trump, in which case you select a candidate that highlights his differences with the majority of Republican voters, or do they want to help Trump because they figure Hillary has a better chance of beating him that the establishment candidate, in which case they do as you say.

    Much more fun for Obama to select the most outrageous screaming liberal he can find and watch the GOP implode in a paroxysm of rage and bickering about who would be the best candidate to stop any more of this nonsense, whilst annoying the independent voters by dragging everything out forever.
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    It's an interesting question.

    If the UK Supreme Court effectively becomes the UK Constitutional Court through the forthcoming British Bill of Rights (and its powers could only be enhanced through a Leave vote) could we eventually see similar political battles over judges here?

    One would probably default to "no", particularly since PMs do not appoint our judges, but if our Supreme Court starts to become the ultimate arbiter of human rights law in the UK then it could end up in future attracting not much less controversy than the ECHR.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    It's an interesting question.

    If the UK Supreme Court effectively becomes the UK Constitutional Court through the forthcoming British Bill of Rights (and its powers could only be enhanced through a Leave vote) could we eventually see similar political battles over judges here?

    One would probably default to "no", particularly since PMs do not appoint our judges, but if our Supreme Court starts to become the ultimate arbiter of human rights law in the UK then it could end up in future attracting not much less controversy than the ECHR.

    That's a good point. Who does actually appoint senior judges in the UK? I would guess nominally it's Her Majesty, but on who's advice?
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    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. My guess is that Obama will try and appoint someone relatively centrist and uncontroversial, purely to embarrass the GOP as they try and stop the move. This could play into Trump's hands as a GOP outsider if he tells them to grow up and behave like adults.

    The Dems have to decide what their strategy is, do they want to sink Trump, in which case you select a candidate that highlights his differences with the majority of Republican voters, or do they want to help Trump because they figure Hillary has a better chance of beating him that the establishment candidate, in which case they do as you say.

    Much more fun for Obama to select the most outrageous screaming liberal he can find and watch the GOP implode in a paroxysm of rage and bickering about who would be the best candidate to stop any more of this nonsense, whilst annoying the independent voters by dragging everything out forever.
    The Supreme Court judge will end up making important decisions for maybe another 30 years or the terms of several Presidents. Trump may well be a footnote in history by then.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. My guess is that Obama will try and appoint someone relatively centrist and uncontroversial, purely to embarrass the GOP as they try and stop the move. This could play into Trump's hands as a GOP outsider if he tells them to grow up and behave like adults.

    The Dems have to decide what their strategy is, do they want to sink Trump, in which case you select a candidate that highlights his differences with the majority of Republican voters, or do they want to help Trump because they figure Hillary has a better chance of beating him that the establishment candidate, in which case they do as you say.

    Much more fun for Obama to select the most outrageous screaming liberal he can find and watch the GOP implode in a paroxysm of rage and bickering about who would be the best candidate to stop any more of this nonsense, whilst annoying the independent voters by dragging everything out forever.
    If I were Obama I'd go with the moderate appointment. The outrageous screaming liberal nomination will be seen as petty politics by both sides, whereas the moderate will be seen as the Dems trying to be sensible and the GOP trying to be idiots.

    From a quick read of history the majority of appointments are sorted out in a couple of months. It will be very difficult to string it out through the summer without one side or the other looking very stupid.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The Republican argument is obviously partisan and nonsensical (and frankly if it were justified would have to apply to a first term President seeking election as well as a second term President). The main reason the argument is rubbish is simply because arguments of this type (often seen in the UK) are made on the basis that one Parliament can't bind its successor. However this obviously can't apply for US Supreme Court judges for the simple reason that they are appointed for life. There is no logical reason why a US President should have a mandate to appoint a supreme court judge at the start of their term, but not at the end; the judges are not appointed for the purposes of aiding the sitting President so there is no issue about "not being able to appoint because they are not the one to get the benefit of the appointment".
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Appointed by Monarch on advice of Prime Minister
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    Appointed by Monarch on advice of Prime Minister

    I thought it was the Lord Chancellor who convenes a selection commission to decide on eligible candidates from around the UK.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sandpit said:

    It's an interesting question.

    If the UK Supreme Court effectively becomes the UK Constitutional Court through the forthcoming British Bill of Rights (and its powers could only be enhanced through a Leave vote) could we eventually see similar political battles over judges here?

    One would probably default to "no", particularly since PMs do not appoint our judges, but if our Supreme Court starts to become the ultimate arbiter of human rights law in the UK then it could end up in future attracting not much less controversy than the ECHR.

    That's a good point. Who does actually appoint senior judges in the UK? I would guess nominally it's Her Majesty, but on who's advice?
    I believe it is the Judicial Appointments Commission who select individuals who are then recommended by the PM to the monarch.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Ted Cruz made this an issue before Scalia's death...

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/12/ted-cruz-we-are-one-liberal-justice-away-from-a-five-justice-liberal-majority/

    “We are one liberal justice away from a five justice liberal majority, the likes of which this country has never seen,” 2016 presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said Tuesday at the Red Arrow Diner in New Hampshire with radio hosts Andrew Wilkow and David Webb on The Wilkow Majority radio program on SiriusXM Patriot 125.

    “The next president could get up to four Supreme Court justices,” Cruz said
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    Republicans are just making up rules as they go. They only believe in the constitution when it suits them.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sandpit said:

    Indigo said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning. My guess is that Obama will try and appoint someone relatively centrist and uncontroversial, purely to embarrass the GOP as they try and stop the move. This could play into Trump's hands as a GOP outsider if he tells them to grow up and behave like adults.

    The Dems have to decide what their strategy is, do they want to sink Trump, in which case you select a candidate that highlights his differences with the majority of Republican voters, or do they want to help Trump because they figure Hillary has a better chance of beating him that the establishment candidate, in which case they do as you say.

    Much more fun for Obama to select the most outrageous screaming liberal he can find and watch the GOP implode in a paroxysm of rage and bickering about who would be the best candidate to stop any more of this nonsense, whilst annoying the independent voters by dragging everything out forever.
    If I were Obama I'd go with the moderate appointment. The outrageous screaming liberal nomination will be seen as petty politics by both sides, whereas the moderate will be seen as the Dems trying to be sensible and the GOP trying to be idiots.

    From a quick read of history the majority of appointments are sorted out in a couple of months. It will be very difficult to string it out through the summer without one side or the other looking very stupid.
    That seems right in theory but in practice the Republicans will portray a moderate as a screaming liberal anyway, probably successfully. There is a case for giving the wolf-criers an actual wolf.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Isn't the question in the poll misleading though? The President does not appoint the Supreme Court Justices, he nominates them. The Senate can reject the nomination. Is the Senate "allowed" to be completely partial in their rejection, or do they have to come up with reasons?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pulpstar said:

    Ted Cruz made this an issue before Scalia's death...

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/12/ted-cruz-we-are-one-liberal-justice-away-from-a-five-justice-liberal-majority/

    “We are one liberal justice away from a five justice liberal majority, the likes of which this country has never seen,” 2016 presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said Tuesday at the Red Arrow Diner in New Hampshire with radio hosts Andrew Wilkow and David Webb on The Wilkow Majority radio program on SiriusXM Patriot 125.

    “The next president could get up to four Supreme Court justices,” Cruz said

    Perhaps if the Republicans had been a bit more diligent in recent decades in actually finding candidates and targeting platforms likely to win General Elections then they wouldn't be in this pickle!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Whilst a perfectly valid discussion point for PB, it does bemuse me why the US Supreme Court justice issue leads the general. British media.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Republicans are just making up rules as they go. They only believe in the constitution when it suits them.

    Are they not actually playing exactly by the rules? The senate have to consent to the nomination, if they Senate don't like the nomination, they can reject them any the president must select another candidate. Obviously this can start to look absurd from a political perspective, but it must be constitutionally sound (in the strict literalist approach to the Constitution so beloved by Republicans).

    The problem appears to be actually the reverse, the Democrats want the President to be able to appoint a justice without the inconvenience of asking the Senate to approve it, as required by the Constitution.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    To answer my own question:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_Kingdom#Appointment_process

    appointment process for Justices of the Supreme Court. A selection commission is to be formed when vacancies arise. This is to be composed of the President and Deputy President of the Supreme Court and a member of the Judicial Appointments Commission of England and Wales, the Judicial Appointments Board for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Judicial Appointments Commission. In October 2007, the Ministry of Justice announced that this appointment process would be adopted on a voluntary basis for appointments of Lords of Appeal in Ordinary.[28]

    The commission selects one person for the vacancy, and notifies the Lord Chancellor of its choice. The Lord Chancellor then either

    approves the commission's selection
    rejects the commission's selection, or
    asks the commission to reconsider its selection.
    If the Lord Chancellor approves the person selected by the commission, the Prime Minister must then recommend that person to the Monarch for appointment.[29]

    New judges appointed to the Supreme Court after its creation will not necessarily receive peerages; however, they are given the courtesy title of Lord or Lady upon appointment.[30][31] The President and Deputy President are appointed to those roles rather than being the most senior by tenure in office.

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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    "he shall nominate, and by and with the advice and consent of the Senate appoint, ... judges of the Supreme Court, and all other officers of the United States, whose appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by law:"

    It's badly worded, what happens if the senate refuses to consent to his appointments for ever.

    The constitution doesn't specify a size for the court, that's done by an act of congress
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    Indigo said:

    Republicans are just making up rules as they go. They only believe in the constitution when it suits them.

    Are they not actually playing exactly by the rules? The senate have to consent to the nomination, if they Senate don't like the nomination, they can reject them any the president must select another candidate. Obviously this can start to look absurd from a political perspective, but it must be constitutionally sound (in the strict literalist approach to the Constitution so beloved by Republicans).

    The problem appears to be actually the reverse, the Democrats want the President to be able to appoint a justice without the inconvenience of asking the Senate to approve it, as required by the Constitution.
    No, I cannot see how you can fault the Democrats here, at least so far. Nor even mainstream Republicans. Remember Cruz came from the Tea Party wing and is not well-regarded by the GOP Establishment -- partly for his fondness for stunts like this.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    The Scalia-was-murdered conspiracy theory is just delicious. It's going to be one of the longest running, hardest to kill (heh) pieces of whackjobbery of all time.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Presumably the Republicans would probably be justified in refusing any outrageous nominations. There is clearly an implicit requirement within the constitution for Presidents to nomination individuals which can gain the support of the Senate. What are the figures on rejections of nominees? Presumably early term Presidents will often test their luck with some antagonistic nominations knowing that the Senate will have to then accept the "compromise" candidates subsequently offered.
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    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?
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    Wanderer said:

    The Scalia-was-murdered conspiracy theory is just delicious. It's going to be one of the longest running, hardest to kill (heh) pieces of whackjobbery of all time.

    Though you would have expected that Texas, of all places, would have in place tin-foil proof procedures for handling the deaths of visiting dignitaries.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,717
    Wanderer said:

    The Scalia-was-murdered conspiracy theory is just delicious. It's going to be one of the longest running, hardest to kill (heh) pieces of whackjobbery of all time.

    Do we know he wasn't on Obamalama's daily death list ;-o ?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970
    alex. said:

    Isn't the question in the poll misleading though? The President does not appoint the Supreme Court Justices, he nominates them. The Senate can reject the nomination. Is the Senate "allowed" to be completely partial in their rejection, or do they have to come up with reasons?

    The Senate can reject a nominee for any reason it likes.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970
    Wanderer said:

    The Scalia-was-murdered conspiracy theory is just delicious. It's going to be one of the longest running, hardest to kill (heh) pieces of whackjobbery of all time.

    I find it all too plausible.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Turks are denying they had troops (around 100) enter Syria:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35576458
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    A lacklustre nationalist party in a provincial region does wonders for UKIP. They should be encouraging Merbyn Kernow as much as possible.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    Everyone on SCOTUS is a judicial heavyweight. But, with the exception of Kennedy, they're highly partisan judicial heavyweights.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Indigo said:

    Republicans are just making up rules as they go. They only believe in the constitution when it suits them.

    Are they not actually playing exactly by the rules? The senate have to consent to the nomination, if they Senate don't like the nomination, they can reject them any the president must select another candidate. Obviously this can start to look absurd from a political perspective, but it must be constitutionally sound (in the strict literalist approach to the Constitution so beloved by Republicans).

    The problem appears to be actually the reverse, the Democrats want the President to be able to appoint a justice without the inconvenience of asking the Senate to approve it, as required by the Constitution.
    The Democrats aren't suggesting that. They are (or at least Warren is) saying that the Republicans aren't taking their constitutional role in the process seriously if they just say they will disapprove any nominee because Obama only has 11 months left in office.
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    Indigo said:

    Republicans are just making up rules as they go. They only believe in the constitution when it suits them.

    The problem appears to be actually the reverse, the Democrats want the President to be able to appoint a justice without the inconvenience of asking the Senate to approve it, as required by the Constitution.
    Link?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970
    Pulpstar said:

    A lacklustre nationalist party in a provincial region does wonders for UKIP. They should be encouraging Merbyn Kernow as much as possible.
    31-34% is pisspoor for Labour.

    And Leave are ahead by 45-37% in Wales.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,264
    edited February 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Whilst a perfectly valid discussion point for PB, it does bemuse me why the US Supreme Court justice issue leads the general. British media.

    HSBC staying in the UK for Today; bank worship trumps all.
    (Also the future of vellum is secured - phew!)
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    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A lacklustre nationalist party in a provincial region does wonders for UKIP. They should be encouraging Merbyn Kernow as much as possible.
    31-34% is pisspoor for Labour.

    And Leave are ahead by 45-37% in Wales.
    Although, for now, the Welsh assembly electoral system as designed by Labour in 1998 does seem to be working wonders in keeping them in perpetual power, unlike Scotland.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    They'll be evaluated on partisan liberal/conservative grounds anyway?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    No need to be so controversial so early in the week!
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    alex. said:

    Presumably the Republicans would probably be justified in refusing any outrageous nominations. There is clearly an implicit requirement within the constitution for Presidents to nomination individuals which can gain the support of the Senate. What are the figures on rejections of nominees? Presumably early term Presidents will often test their luck with some antagonistic nominations knowing that the Senate will have to then accept the "compromise" candidates subsequently offered.

    Who decides what makes someone an "outrageous" nomination? Why do I smell a Constitutional Amendment on the US political agenda?

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    Pulpstar said:

    A lacklustre nationalist party in a provincial region does wonders for UKIP. They should be encouraging Merbyn Kernow as much as possible.
    It does seem as if the only way Labour will be ever knocked out or power in Wales is if their vote, and that of PC, declines to a point where the Conservatives and UKIP can (and are willing to) dance with each other.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,063
    Just watched Richard Tice, for one of the Leave campaigns, and Will Straw, for a Remain group. I noted, and was quite annoyed by, Tice continually, and somewhat emotionally, referring to his “side” as “the British People” when it’s abundantly clear that he doesn’t speak for more than around 40%.
    Straw stuck to the facts
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.
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    Is a pity Clarence Darrow isn't around he'd be my first choice to succeed Justice Scalia.

    Second choice for shits'n'giggles would be Robert Bork, but he has the same issue as Clarence Darrow.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    rcs1000 said:

    The guy was 79, with a raft of health issues. He was no doubt trying to tough it out so that Obama didn't get to decide his replacement. The last few Supreme Court retirements do seem to have been done when a President could appoint someone of similar outlook to the retiree. That wasn't going to happen with Obama replacing Scalia. Assuming there is anyone even a Republican could nominate of similar outlook to replace Scalia...
    The great irony is that - if the Republicans attempt to hold up the confirmation of someone like Sri Srivinasan - then the next President is more likely to be a Democrat. And there has to be a pretty high chance that the next President gets to appoint two Supreme Court Justices.
    I think that is really the point Robert. The next President is going to replace a Liberal and a swing Justice. That would be enough to balance the court whichever way the next President wishes. Of course if it is President Trump he will not be wanting to appoint Justices who might challenge Roe-v-Wade.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
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    The confirmation of Clarence Thomas was amusing over whether he had discussed with female staff, the porn star, Long Dong Silver.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And they'll be spiteful if we stay to get their own back. It's the mindset that's the issue.

    It's all battered wife thinking.
    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
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    As a member of the avant-garde who is capable of perceiving the conspiracy before it is fully obvious to an as yet unaroused public, the paranoid is a militant leader. He does not see social conflict as something to be mediated and compromised, in the manner of the working politician. Since what is at stake is always a conflict between absolute good and absolute evil, what is necessary is not compromise but the will to fight things out to a finish. Since the enemy is thought of as being totally evil and totally unappeasable, he must be totally eliminated—if not from the world, at least from the theatre of operations to which the paranoid directs his attention. This demand for total triumph leads to the formulation of hopelessly unrealistic goals, and since these goals are not even remotely attainable, failure constantly heightens the paranoid’s sense of frustration. Even partial success leaves him with the same feeling of powerlessness with which he began, and this in turn only strengthens his awareness of the vast and terrifying quality of the enemy he opposes.

    Remind you of anyone.......

    http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/5/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Jonathan said:

    Whilst a perfectly valid discussion point for PB, it does bemuse me why the US Supreme Court justice issue leads the general. British media.

    Does it? There was no mention on the main British news bulletins other than the sidebar though I suppose more than the US would give to the death of a British Supreme Court Judge
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    On balance I think I prefer our system. Although we had the constitutional curiosity of the First Minister personally interviewing the 2 remaining candidates for Lord President of the Court of Session just recently and then choosing the one who is known to have Nationalist sympathies and did some difficult work for them.

    As we move towards the idea of the Supreme Court becoming some sort of constitutional court there is an argument that the appointment process should have some more independent scrutiny.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I don't want to give them ideas, but they must have some they actually believe that aren't based on risible stuff like protection against North Korea.
    Wanderer said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
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    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It is the same argument Dave and Better Together used in the Indyref.

    Dave is sticking with the tried and tested.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It also makes some people wonder why they should stay in an organisation where our partners dislike us so much.

    It's like telling a woman in an emotionally abusive relationship that she should stay because her partner loves her really but will make life really difficult for her if she leaves. It's not really tenable in the long-term without serious damage to one side or the other.

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,562
    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970

    As a member of the avant-garde who is capable of perceiving the conspiracy before it is fully obvious to an as yet unaroused public, the paranoid is a militant leader. He does not see social conflict as something to be mediated and compromised, in the manner of the working politician. Since what is at stake is always a conflict between absolute good and absolute evil, what is necessary is not compromise but the will to fight things out to a finish. Since the enemy is thought of as being totally evil and totally unappeasable, he must be totally eliminated—if not from the world, at least from the theatre of operations to which the paranoid directs his attention. This demand for total triumph leads to the formulation of hopelessly unrealistic goals, and since these goals are not even remotely attainable, failure constantly heightens the paranoid’s sense of frustration. Even partial success leaves him with the same feeling of powerlessness with which he began, and this in turn only strengthens his awareness of the vast and terrifying quality of the enemy he opposes.

    Remind you of anyone.......

    http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/5/

    Richard Nixon, for one.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,077
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It also makes some people wonder why they should stay in an organisation where our partners dislike us so much.

    It's like telling a woman in an emotionally abusive relationship that she should stay because her partner loves her really but will make life really difficult for her if she leaves. It's not really tenable in the long-term without serious damage to one side or the other.

    They begged and bribed ( false lies mind you ) Scotland to stay why not do same on Europe.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It is the same argument Dave and Better Together used in the Indyref.

    Dave is sticking with the tried and tested.
    True - but there is a difference and it is this. A lot of people felt at an emotional level that Scotland was an integral part of the U.K., that Scotland's departure would cause some real damage to the UK's sense of itself.

    I don't think that the same can be said about Britain's membership of the EU - either about Britain or about the EU itself.

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    Hammond saying today EU negotiatiom would show "fair winds" in terms of the direction ov sovereignty. But given Cameron has given away leverage by promising to stand aside from Eurozone integration, its clear further powers won't be coming back. If we vote to stay, next PM must renounce this.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,970
    DavidL said:

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    On balance I think I prefer our system. Although we had the constitutional curiosity of the First Minister personally interviewing the 2 remaining candidates for Lord President of the Court of Session just recently and then choosing the one who is known to have Nationalist sympathies and did some difficult work for them.

    As we move towards the idea of the Supreme Court becoming some sort of constitutional court there is an argument that the appointment process should have some more independent scrutiny.
    Personally, I hate the idea of judges being given huge rights to legislate, in the manner of SCOTUS. I far prefer Parliamentary sovereignty.
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    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.

    Keep going. This place needs more people like you. (Unless Sean Fear tells me it doesn't, in which case I'm wrong. I've been wrong before. :( )

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It also makes some people wonder why they should stay in an organisation where our partners dislike us so much.

    It's like telling a woman in an emotionally abusive relationship that she should stay because her partner loves her really but will make life really difficult for her if she leaves. It's not really tenable in the long-term without serious damage to one side or the other.

    They begged and bribed ( false lies mind you ) Scotland to stay why not do same on Europe.
    I don't think that pleas and bribes are the basis of a worthwhile relationship. Mind you, I tend to be in favour of independence. Sometimes self-respect is more important than wealth though I can see that others can take a different view. Honourable arguments on both sides of this argument, though I do wish those on the Remain side would come up with something better than "you won't be able to cope on your own", which is transparent nonsense.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Me to. It runs against everything I like about our system. Political judges and electing them or prosecutors strikes me as all wrong.
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    On balance I think I prefer our system. Although we had the constitutional curiosity of the First Minister personally interviewing the 2 remaining candidates for Lord President of the Court of Session just recently and then choosing the one who is known to have Nationalist sympathies and did some difficult work for them.

    As we move towards the idea of the Supreme Court becoming some sort of constitutional court there is an argument that the appointment process should have some more independent scrutiny.
    Personally, I hate the idea of judges being given huge rights to legislate, in the manner of SCOTUS. I far prefer Parliamentary sovereignty.
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    Sean_F said:

    As a member of the avant-garde who is capable of perceiving the conspiracy before it is fully obvious to an as yet unaroused public, the paranoid is a militant leader. He does not see social conflict as something to be mediated and compromised, in the manner of the working politician. Since what is at stake is always a conflict between absolute good and absolute evil, what is necessary is not compromise but the will to fight things out to a finish. Since the enemy is thought of as being totally evil and totally unappeasable, he must be totally eliminated—if not from the world, at least from the theatre of operations to which the paranoid directs his attention. This demand for total triumph leads to the formulation of hopelessly unrealistic goals, and since these goals are not even remotely attainable, failure constantly heightens the paranoid’s sense of frustration. Even partial success leaves him with the same feeling of powerlessness with which he began, and this in turn only strengthens his awareness of the vast and terrifying quality of the enemy he opposes.

    Remind you of anyone.......

    http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/5/

    Richard Nixon, for one.
    To be fair to Nixon, JFK cheated in the 1960 election in Chicago/Illinois and it did make him wonder if he did it elsewhere, enough to steal the election from Nixon.
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    The fact is he may well have been killed. 'Heart attack gun' as quoted in a link here is spin for plebs. It deliberately tries to make absurd what is perfectly medically possible not to say easy.

    I think you're on to something.

    There's only a 5.5% probability of a 79 year old dying in that year - life expectancy is 8.6 years and the leading cause of death is cancer......

    http://life-span.healthgrove.com/l/80/79

    Overweight 79 year old dies in his sleep not long after a Trans Pacific flight from Hong Kong - who are they trying to kid......
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    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    The EU being spiteful towards us if we vote Leave is a legitimate concern, but it also puts voters' backs up.
    It is the same argument Dave and Better Together used in the Indyref.

    Dave is sticking with the tried and tested.
    True - but there is a difference and it is this. A lot of people felt at an emotional level that Scotland was an integral part of the U.K., that Scotland's departure would cause some real damage to the UK's sense of itself.

    I don't think that the same can be said about Britain's membership of the EU - either about Britain or about the EU itself.

    That's just the difference between 40 years and 400 years - nothing to do with right or wrong or indeed rational argument itself. It's Plato's argument for Guardians.

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    Sean_F said:

    As a member of the avant-garde who is capable of perceiving the conspiracy before it is fully obvious to an as yet unaroused public, the paranoid is a militant leader. He does not see social conflict as something to be mediated and compromised, in the manner of the working politician. Since what is at stake is always a conflict between absolute good and absolute evil, what is necessary is not compromise but the will to fight things out to a finish. Since the enemy is thought of as being totally evil and totally unappeasable, he must be totally eliminated—if not from the world, at least from the theatre of operations to which the paranoid directs his attention. This demand for total triumph leads to the formulation of hopelessly unrealistic goals, and since these goals are not even remotely attainable, failure constantly heightens the paranoid’s sense of frustration. Even partial success leaves him with the same feeling of powerlessness with which he began, and this in turn only strengthens his awareness of the vast and terrifying quality of the enemy he opposes.

    Remind you of anyone.......

    http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/5/

    Richard Nixon, for one.
    I was thinking of more contemporary examples....at differing points in the political spectrum.....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Have we seen this already?

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-02-15/poll-shows-growing-support-for-leaving-eu/
    What about for the EU Referendum? With the referendum becoming much less of a hypothetical event, there has been something of a move towards Leave in Britain-wide polls in recent weeks. What about in Wales? This is what our new Barometer poll found (with changes from December once more in brackets):

    Remain a member of the European Union: 37% (-3%)

    Leave the European Union: 45% (+3%)
    Would not vote: 3% (-2%)

    Don’t Know: 16% (+2%)

    Our previous poll gave Leave the first lead, albeit a very narrow one, that they had experienced in Wales for two years. They have now extended that advantage to a clear eight percentage points. The only other poll on the EU referendum ever to give Leave such an advantage in Wales was one done by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail almost three years ago (and using a rather different question).
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    Wanderer said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
    I would argue:

    That the EU, in or out, is likely to remain the UK's most important market for the foreseeable future. That it is important that we are a part of the rule making process within that market. That to give up our membership of the Council of Ministers, the Commission and the European Parliament simply cannot be in our best interests. There is a real risk that without the UK the EU will become more protectionist, more insular and less successful with adverse consequences for our prosperity.

    That, frustrating as it is at times, there are many, many areas where co-operation with our nearest neighbours makes perfect sense and the EU provides a framework for doing that. I might mention pollution, crime, even the mass immigration that the EU is presently enduring as examples of where working together through the framework of the EU makes sense.

    That the world is increasingly made of large trading blocs who negotiate with each other on a supra government level. That it is naïve to think we will be able to negotiate the same terms with these trading blocs that the EU can. That the concept of sovereignty in a 19th century sense is simply redundant in the modern interrelated world.

    That the EU is far from perfect but it has accepted British exceptionalism to a significant extent already with all the opt outs we have had since Maastricht and that these have been extended (fractionally) even further by Cameron's negotiations. There are reasonable prospects of this continuing and if it doesn't we can leave then.

    That the world economy is a particularly fragile state at the present time with a serious risk of a repeat of at least elements of the financial crash. This is not the time to expose the UK to 2 years of uncertainty until the negotiations with the EU are resolved. It will cost inward investment, growth and jobs at the margins.

    There are lots of good arguments for Remain, just as there are lots of good arguments for Leave. This is a really complicated and finely balanced decision. It perplexes me that so many can be so sure what the answer is.
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    DavidL said:

    Wanderer said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
    I would argue:

    That the EU, in or out, is likely to remain the UK's most important market for the foreseeable future. That it is important that we are a part of the rule making process within that market. That to give up our membership of the Council of Ministers, the Commission and the European Parliament simply cannot be in our best interests. There is a real risk that without the UK the EU will become more protectionist, more insular and less successful with adverse consequences for our prosperity.

    That, frustrating as it is at times, there are many, many areas where co-operation with our nearest neighbours makes perfect sense and the EU provides a framework for doing that. I might mention pollution, crime, even the mass immigration that the EU is presently enduring as examples of where working together through the framework of the EU makes sense.

    That the world is increasingly made of large trading blocs who negotiate with each other on a supra government level. That it is naïve to think we will be able to negotiate the same terms with these trading blocs that the EU can. That the concept of sovereignty in a 19th century sense is simply redundant in the modern interrelated world.

    That the EU is far from perfect but it has accepted British exceptionalism to a significant extent already with all the opt outs we have had since Maastricht and that these have been extended (fractionally) even further by Cameron's negotiations. There are reasonable prospects of this continuing and if it doesn't we can leave then.

    That the world economy is a particularly fragile state at the present time with a serious risk of a repeat of at least elements of the financial crash. This is not the time to expose the UK to 2 years of uncertainty until the negotiations with the EU are resolved. It will cost inward investment, growth and jobs at the margins.

    There are lots of good arguments for Remain, just as there are lots of good arguments for Leave. This is a really complicated and finely balanced decision. It perplexes me that so many can be so sure what the answer is.
    Many thanks. Excellent post.

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    DavidL said:

    Wanderer said:

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
    I would argue:

    That the EU, in or out, is likely to remain the UK's most important market for the foreseeable future. That it is important that we are a part of the rule making process within that market. That to give up our membership of the Council of Ministers, the Commission and the European Parliament simply cannot be in our best interests. There is a real risk that without the UK the EU will become more protectionist, more insular and less successful with adverse consequences for our prosperity.

    That, frustrating as it is at times, there are many, many areas where co-operation with our nearest neighbours makes perfect sense and the EU provides a framework for doing that. I might mention pollution, crime, even the mass immigration that the EU is presently enduring as examples of where working together through the framework of the EU makes sense.

    That the world is increasingly made of large trading blocs who negotiate with each other on a supra government level. That it is naïve to think we will be able to negotiate the same terms with these trading blocs that the EU can. That the concept of sovereignty in a 19th century sense is simply redundant in the modern interrelated world.

    That the EU is far from perfect but it has accepted British exceptionalism to a significant extent already with all the opt outs we have had since Maastricht and that these have been extended (fractionally) even further by Cameron's negotiations. There are reasonable prospects of this continuing and if it doesn't we can leave then.

    That the world economy is a particularly fragile state at the present time with a serious risk of a repeat of at least elements of the financial crash. This is not the time to expose the UK to 2 years of uncertainty until the negotiations with the EU are resolved. It will cost inward investment, growth and jobs at the margins.

    There are lots of good arguments for Remain, just as there are lots of good arguments for Leave. This is a really complicated and finely balanced decision. It perplexes me that so many can be so sure what the answer is.
    Excellent post.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a crazy idea, but how about the president nominating a candidate of unimpeachable heavyweight juridical standing?

    On balance I think I prefer our system. Although we had the constitutional curiosity of the First Minister personally interviewing the 2 remaining candidates for Lord President of the Court of Session just recently and then choosing the one who is known to have Nationalist sympathies and did some difficult work for them.

    As we move towards the idea of the Supreme Court becoming some sort of constitutional court there is an argument that the appointment process should have some more independent scrutiny.
    Personally, I hate the idea of judges being given huge rights to legislate, in the manner of SCOTUS. I far prefer Parliamentary sovereignty.
    I heard a story this week that one of the Justices, fairly recently appointed, was scrambling around trying to find authority for some proposition when he suddenly realised that if he said it as a Supreme Court Justice and was supported by the majority it was the law. As simple as that.
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    I see Hammond has come out for Remain. Frankly I'm not bothered that he did, but his argument for doing so is very thin Project Fear stuff. Not as piss poor as Cameron, but not far off.

    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us. And move away from us. Well since they're moving away from us already and we feel hard done by rather often now - I'm not sure how this argument works.

    And it's getting panned. Justly. Remain needs to sort this out. I'm not seeing anyone saying they're being converted to Remain, the traffic is all one way.

    Hammond is a dead man walking. He knows he's likely to be reshuffled in June/July for Boris or May so may be just trying to save his own skin.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Just watched Richard Tice, for one of the Leave campaigns, and Will Straw, for a Remain group. I noted, and was quite annoyed by, Tice continually, and somewhat emotionally, referring to his “side” as “the British People” when it’s abundantly clear that he doesn’t speak for more than around 40%.
    Straw stuck to the facts

    We are about to find out how many he speaks for, if LEAVE wins, he speaks for the majority, unless you are edging toward trying that old "Tories won with only 23% of registered voters" disingenuity again.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016

    Have we seen this already?

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-02-15/poll-shows-growing-support-for-leaving-eu/

    What about for the EU Referendum? With the referendum becoming much less of a hypothetical event, there has been something of a move towards Leave in Britain-wide polls in recent weeks. What about in Wales? This is what our new Barometer poll found (with changes from December once more in brackets):

    Remain a member of the European Union: 37% (-3%)

    Leave the European Union: 45% (+3%)
    Would not vote: 3% (-2%)

    Don’t Know: 16% (+2%)

    Our previous poll gave Leave the first lead, albeit a very narrow one, that they had experienced in Wales for two years. They have now extended that advantage to a clear eight percentage points. The only other poll on the EU referendum ever to give Leave such an advantage in Wales was one done by Beaufort Research for the Western Mail almost three years ago (and using a rather different question).
    Interesting. I thought Wales might vote for Brexit and these figures confirm it's a possbility.

    Also puts Con + UKIP on 45% which means they could win control of the Welsh Assembly.
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    DavidL said:

    Wanderer said:

    If you were advocating Remain what arguments would you use?
    I would argue:

    That the EU, in or out, is likely to remain the UK's most important market for the foreseeable future. That it is important that we are a part of the rule making process within that market. That to give up our membership of the Council of Ministers, the Commission and the European Parliament simply cannot be in our best interests. There is a real risk that without the UK the EU will become more protectionist, more insular and less successful with adverse consequences for our prosperity.

    That, frustrating as it is at times, there are many, many areas where co-operation with our nearest neighbours makes perfect sense and the EU provides a framework for doing that. I might mention pollution, crime, even the mass immigration that the EU is presently enduring as examples of where working together through the framework of the EU makes sense.

    That the world is increasingly made of large trading blocs who negotiate with each other on a supra government level. That it is naïve to think we will be able to negotiate the same terms with these trading blocs that the EU can. That the concept of sovereignty in a 19th century sense is simply redundant in the modern interrelated world.

    That the EU is far from perfect but it has accepted British exceptionalism to a significant extent already with all the opt outs we have had since Maastricht and that these have been extended (fractionally) even further by Cameron's negotiations. There are reasonable prospects of this continuing and if it doesn't we can leave then.

    That the world economy is a particularly fragile state at the present time with a serious risk of a repeat of at least elements of the financial crash. This is not the time to expose the UK to 2 years of uncertainty until the negotiations with the EU are resolved. It will cost inward investment, growth and jobs at the margins.

    There are lots of good arguments for Remain, just as there are lots of good arguments for Leave. This is a really complicated and finely balanced decision. It perplexes me that so many can be so sure what the answer is.
    Well said - if the debate was conducted along these lines (and OGHJr's post on 'Leave') it would generate much more light than it currently is doing.

    Too much 'paranoia' on both sides.

    If only someone would approach it along the lines 'On balance, we should X - here are the positives of doing X - and here are the potential downsides' - I'm sure they'd get a willing audience who reject this infantilisation of the electorate 'If you don't do X the bogey man will get you....' (be it 3 million jobs lost or 3 million immigrants arriving)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited February 2016

    I see Hammond has come out for Remain....
    Apparently unless we vote In, the EU will be spiteful to us....

    Does the EU enjoy battering it's wife.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Great news. I can't believe it was seriously suggested that we didn't use it in future.

    Vellum update (Telegraph via @suttonnick) https://t.co/DGPAPOFtcn
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