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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election line-up has 3 LAB defences and

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  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even more eurosceptic post EU ref

    Why?
    As either it will be a narrow Remain in which case they will feel robbed, or it is Leave in which case they will back the best Leave candidate available
    Oh, if it's Leave then all bets are off, because obviously we will need a different team to negotiate the new terms. But if it's Remain, I simply don't get this idea that there will be an appetite for a rerun. Voters will have spoken, the matter will be closed.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    Just applied for the Poole QT!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
  • Options
    Declaring an interest here, Crabb is my MP and Carwyn my Labour leader in Wales.
    IMO Crabb is very lucky to be Sec of State. Gets elected down here because he is involved in church and lots of small groups. Likeable enough but no way PM material. Not a good debater and would flounder at the despatch box under pressure.
    Never been a big fan of Carwyn, but a step above Crabb. Wish he was more forceful sometimes and lacks the personality that Rhodri had.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016
    Liam Fox's problem is that he has been Defence Minister. A senior post, of special importance to Conservative Party members.

    It wasn't, shall we say, the most glittering of ministerial careers.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited February 2016

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick

    http://crompton.localstats.co.uk/census-demographics/england/north-west/bolton/crompton
  • Options

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    Does Crompton constitute the whole of Northern England?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,980
    edited February 2016
    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    Get the house on Khan for mayor then !
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    Get the house on Khan for mayor then !
    Then use the profit to move out of London
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    Each of two
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    Does Crompton constitute the whole of Northern England?
    It is this weeks sample of opinion, in real unweighted votes rather than online ranting.

    * Liz Kendall on the TW loveseat. Worth staying up for.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liam Fox tops the latest ConservativeHome next leaders' poll for the first time, he gets 20.89% of Tory members' votes, Theresa May 20.60%, Boris Johnson 18.60% and George Osborne 14.88%
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/fox-tops-our-next-leader-poll-but-with-the-joint-lowest-frontrunner-share-on-record.html

    LFWNBPM
    LFCBLOTO
    Nah - he has been in the public eye, and mostly for the wrong reasons, for too long.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Evidence? He is probably popular enough to get into the final 2, especially if there is a strong Leave vote and he is popular with the membership
    Loose canon, m
    /
    That was 2005.

    And he didn't knock Davis out.
    He was just 6 votes away
    ...
    It was hardly shockingly poor to beat Ken Clarke, a former Chancellor and almost knock-out David Davis, the one-time favourite. The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even mor
    You're missing two dynamics and getting all excited about one poll (to which you always lend as much credence as if they were actual elections, by the way.

    1) To win a party leadership election such as in the Tory party you need to have a popular support base and be the nominated leader of that group - Fox is not the obvious leader of the sceptics.

    2) To win a party leadership election such as in the Tory party you need to not be detested by other strong support bases within the party - Fox is unpopular amongst the part of the Tory party which is keener to govern and win elections, REALLY unpopular. Unpopular enough that others would do all they could to stop him getting anywhere near the final ballot.
    1) He is the most prominent BREXIT backer so far, that gives him a significant constituency, unless and until someone even more prominent in the Tory party backs Leave Fox will be leader of the sceptics by default

    2) Yes being loathed by the likes of Michael Heseltine torpedoed IDS' leadership campaign in 2001 didn't it! Opponents can try as hard as they like to stop Fox but with 100-150 Tory MPs likely to back BREXIT there is nothing much they can do to stop a BREXIT backer getting on the ballot paper
  • Options

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    Does Crompton constitute the whole of Northern England?
    It is this weeks sample of opinion, in real unweighted votes rather than online ranting.

    * Liz Kendall on the TW loveseat. Worth staying up for.
    Not my cup of tea at all, prefer Claire Perry!
  • Options

    Danny565 said:

    Only Leanne Wood can make the term "food banks" sound sexy.

    Cold shower now!
    Must be the rough valleys accent.
  • Options

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    Does Crompton constitute the whole of Northern England?
    It is this weeks sample of opinion, in real unweighted votes rather than online ranting.

    * Liz Kendall on the TW loveseat. Worth staying up for.
    Not my cup of tea at all, prefer Claire Perry!
    Ugh a bunny boiler.
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Oh God, Liz Kendall is about to compare herself to Hillary Clinton.
  • Options

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    Does Crompton constitute the whole of Northern England?
    It is this weeks sample of opinion, in real unweighted votes rather than online ranting.

    * Liz Kendall on the TW loveseat. Worth staying up for.
    Not my cup of tea at all, prefer Claire Perry!
    Ugh a bunny boiler.
    Watched loads of porn though!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Danny565 said:

    Oh God, Liz Kendall is about to compare herself to Hillary Clinton.

    Well, did she?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    valleyboy said:

    Danny565 said:

    Only Leanne Wood can make the term "food banks" sound sexy.

    Cold shower now!
    Must be the rough valleys accent.
    PB Tories 4 Wood!

    ...make of that what you will.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2016
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Oh God, Liz Kendall is about to compare herself to Hillary Clinton.

    Well, did she?
    Not quite, but that was obviously implied.

    She was going on about how the wise "moderates" like Clinton and herself were too mature for the poor voters to get their little heads round, when compared to the savage "populists" who dare to offer an alternative.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    edited February 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    LFWNBPM
    LFCBLOTO
    Nah - he has been in the public eye, and mostly for the wrong reasons, for too long.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    ...
    ...
    /
    That was 2005.

    And he didn't knock Davis out.
    He was just 6 votes away
    ...
    It was hardly shockingly poor to beat Ken Clarke, a former Chancellor and almost knock-out David Davis, the one-time favourite. The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even mor
    You're missing two dynamics and getting all excited about one poll (to which you always lend as much credence as if they were actual elections, by the way.

    1) To win a party leadership election such as in the Tory party you need to have a popular support base and be the nominated leader of that group - Fox is not the obvious leader of the sceptics.

    2) To win a party leadership election such as in the Tory party you need to not be detested by other strong support bases within the party - Fox is unpopular amongst the part of the Tory party which is keener to govern and win elections, REALLY unpopular. Unpopular enough that others would do all they could to stop him getting anywhere near the final ballot.
    1) He is the most prominent BREXIT backer so far, that gives him a significant constituency, unless and until someone even more prominent in the Tory party backs Leave Fox will be leader of the sceptics by default

    2) Yes being loathed by the likes of Michael Heseltine torpedoed IDS' leadership campaign in 2001 didn't it! Opponents can try as hard as they like to stop Fox but with 100-150 Tory MPs likely to back BREXIT there is nothing much they can do to stop a BREXIT backer getting on the ballot paper
    Heseltine was powerless by 2001.

    Being unpopular with people who are SoS etc in Cabinet is entirely different.

    And that is the last I will say about why Fox will never be Tory leader. You can take him on as your latest favourite if you like. It won't help him any more than it helped Burnham.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Harry Cole ✔ @MrHarryCole
    Brexit's @LiamFoxMP beating chickens in race to be next Tory leader: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6925870/Brexit-Fox-beating-chickens-in-race-to-be-next-Tory-leader.html

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6925870/Brexit-Fox-beating-chickens-in-race-to-be-next-Tory-leader.html

    On hearing the news about himself(fox) has rocketed to the top of the tory activists list for next party leader - from the article.

    The right-wing stalwart refused to comment on the development tonight but Westminster allies said the Scotsman was “buoyed” by the news.

    Looks like foxy might run for leader - lol
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,980
    Lower Stoke (Coventry) result:
    LAB: 57.2% (+20.9)
    CON: 15.9% (-18.1)
    UKIP: 13.4% (-4.9)
    GRN: 7.6% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 5.7% (+5.7)
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Lower Stoke (Coventry) result:
    LAB: 57.2% (+20.9)
    CON: 15.9% (-18.1)
    UKIP: 13.4% (-4.9)
    GRN: 7.6% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 5.7% (+5.7)

    Faragism sweeping the Midlands too!
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
    As I said the referendum is much more important than the Ukip vote, if you read much into this by election that is up to you.

    I care about coming out of the horrible EU, not the long term prospects of Ukip
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Pulpstar said:

    Lower Stoke (Coventry) result:
    LAB: 57.2% (+20.9)
    CON: 15.9% (-18.1)
    UKIP: 13.4% (-4.9)
    GRN: 7.6% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 5.7% (+5.7)

    Faragism sweeping the Midlands too!
    Like your party the limp dems.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
    As I said the referendum is much more important than the Ukip vote, if you read much into this by election that is up to you.

    I care about coming out of the horrible EU, not the long term prospects of Ukip
    In both Coventry and Bolton parties supporting Remain go up, Leavers go down...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,980
    Lower stoke is actually a very close match for Coventry generally, demographically.
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
    As I said the referendum is much more important than the Ukip vote, if you read much into this by election that is up to you.

    I care about coming out of the horrible EU, not the long term prospects of Ukip
    In both Coventry and Bolton parties supporting Remain go up, Leavers go down...
    Good news for you and your self interest, form filling will be easy and you can bugger off to the sun.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,980
    Not sure Labour will be able to complete the fourfold in Eastleigh. I'd expect the Lib Dems to perhaps increase their majority though, given the fact the Docs strike is playing out to the Tories' disadvantage at the moment.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Pulpstar said:

    Not sure Labour will be able to complete the fourfold in Eastleigh. I'd expect the Lib Dems to perhaps increase their majority though, given the fact the Docs strike is playing out to the Tories' disadvantage at the moment.

    Lib dems sweeping Eastleigh,who would have thought ;-)
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    philiph said:

    I still think there is a chance that both Labour and conservative will split post referendum. If one starts the other could follow.

    Why would Labour split? The anti-EU segment has almost disappeared already - if all the remainder left it would be a one-day wonder.

    Good Labour results in today's by-elections, incidentally.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
    As I said the referendum is much more important than the Ukip vote, if you read much into this by election that is up to you.

    I care about coming out of the horrible EU, not the long term prospects of Ukip
    In both Coventry and Bolton parties supporting Remain go up, Leavers go down...
    Good news for you and your self interest, form filling will be easy and you can bugger off to the sun.
    Just a few of the many advantages Remaining in the EU will bring!

    Good night all.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liam Fox tops the latest ConservativeHome next leaders' poll for the first time, he gets 20.89% of Tory members' votes, Theresa May 20.60%, Boris Johnson 18.60% and George Osborne 14.88%
    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/fox-tops-our-next-leader-poll-but-with-the-joint-lowest-frontrunner-share-on-record.html

    LFWNBPM
    LFCBLOTO
    Nah - he has been in the public eye, and mostly for the wrong reasons, for too long.
    It depends on EUref, if it is Remain I would agree Fox is unlikely to be the next leader, though if it is close he will be a contendor, if it is Leave he becomes the favourite
    No - he wont.

    I'd be surprised if he made it to 4th or 5th in the MPs contest.
    Fox was already a strong 3rd amongst MPs in 2005 with 51 Tory MPs backing him and almost pipped Davis for the run-off, the parliamentary party is now even more eurosceptic
    WikiBot HYUFD strikes again.

    That is the past.

    Fox is not popular amongst the parliamentary Party.
    Evidence? He is probably popular enough to get into the final 2, especially if there is a strong Leave vote and he is popular with the membership
    Loose canon, managed to get sacked very soon after the coalition took office.

    Plus, most of the Parly party only know him as a leadership contest loser. In the Tory party today, that sticks.
    He very nearly knocked out Davis in the final round and he never went to the membership but would have likely given Cameron a closer race according to polls at the time
    That was 2005.

    And he didn't knock Davis out.
    He was just 6 votes away
    Losing to Davies is pretty shockingly poor.

    You don't seem to have an understanding of the dynamics of political parties. Are you a member of any?
    Davies was not a candidate - I think Davis was though!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    valleyboy said:

    Declaring an interest here, Crabb is my MP and Carwyn my Labour leader in Wales.
    IMO Crabb is very lucky to be Sec of State. Gets elected down here because he is involved in church and lots of small groups. Likeable enough but no way PM material. Not a good debater and would flounder at the despatch box under pressure.
    Never been a big fan of Carwyn, but a step above Crabb. Wish he was more forceful sometimes and lacks the personality that Rhodri had.

    @Involved in the church'? That sounds highly hypocritical for a rightwing Tory to say the least! He clearly fails to practise what he preaches.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115
    edited February 2016
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    LFWNBPM
    LFCBLOTO
    Nah - he has been in the public eye, and mostly for the wrong reasons, for too long.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    ...
    ...
    /
    That was 2005.

    And he didn't knock Davis out.
    He was just 6 votes away
    ...
    It was hardly shockingly poor to beat Ken Clarke, a former Chancellor and almost knock-out David Davis, the one-time favourite. The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even mor
    You're missing two dynamics and getting all excited about one poll (to which you always lend as much credence as if they were actual elections, by the way.

    1) To win a party leadership election such as in the Tory party you need to have a popular support base and be the nominated leader of that group - Fox is not the obvious leader of the sceptics.

    1) He is the most prominent BREXIT backer so far, that gives him a significant constituency, unless and until someone even more prominent in the Tory party backs Leave Fox will be leader of the sceptics by default

    2) Yes being loathed by the likes of Michael Heseltine torpedoed IDS' leadership campaign in 2001 didn't it! Opponents can try as hard as they like to stop Fox but with 100-150 Tory MPs likely to back BREXIT there is nothing much they can do to stop a BREXIT backer getting on the ballot paper
    Heseltine was powerless by 2001.

    Being unpopular with people who are SoS etc in Cabinet is entirely different.

    And that is the last I will say about why Fox will never be Tory leader. You can take him on as your latest favourite if you like. It won't help him any more than it helped Burnham.
    Heseltine was one of the biggest Tory beasts in the jungle and IDS was also unpopular with the likes of Maude and Portillo etc who were prominent figures in the Tory Party at the time and had been in Hague's Shadow Cabinet. Fox would be the activists choice, Burnham was a good choice for the general election but the activists wanted Corbyn. As I said Fox's chances are tied to EUref, the higher the Leave vote, the better his prospects. Goodnight
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Liam Fox's problem is that he has been Defence Minister. A senior post, of special importance to Conservative Party members.

    It wasn't, shall we say, the most glittering of ministerial careers.

    Did he not go to Dubai on defence matters with advisor ?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    Only Leanne Wood can make the term "food banks" sound sexy.

    Oh, yes! I will definitely give her one... vote !
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Lib Dems beating UKIP ! UKIP didn't even last until the ref !
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    surbiton said:

    Liam Fox's problem is that he has been Defence Minister. A senior post, of special importance to Conservative Party members.

    It wasn't, shall we say, the most glittering of ministerial careers.

    Did he not go to Dubai on defence matters with advisor ?
    Not just Dubai:

    Between February 2009 and 2011 Werritty was in Fox's company on many trips abroad:

    Israel, February 2009.
    Singapore, 4–6 June 2010.
    Dubai, 7–8 June 2010.
    Florida, 2–3 July 2010.
    Dubai, 6–8 August 2010.
    Washington DC September 2010
    Bahrain, 2–6 December 2010.
    Dubai, 17–22 December 2010.
    Hong Kong, 16–23 January 2011.
    Israel, 6–7 February.
    Switzerland, 17–21 February.
    Dubai, April 2011.
    Abu Dhabi, 14–18 April 2011.
    Florida/Washington, 22–25 May 2011.
    Hong Kong, 31 May – 1 June 2011.
    Singapore, 2–6 June 2011.
    Sri Lanka, July 2011.
    Dubai, 17 June 2011.
    Washington DC, 30 June – 3 July 2011.
    Spain, 5–9 August.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Werritty

    And there'll always be the photos......of the scrapped Nimrods (almost certainly the correct decision, but it still 'looks bad')
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    Mail Online:

    "David Cameron’s ‘thin gruel’ EU referendum deal has been watered down even further, according to documents leaked last night.

    The Prime Minister’s draft agreement with Brussels had already been condemned as ‘feeble’ by Tory backbenchers. But No 10’s hopes of bolstering the deal ahead of next week’s summit were dashed by an updated version which critics say is even worse."


    Oh Dear ...... has it just become even worse for Cameron?
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    Mail Online:

    "David Cameron’s ‘thin gruel’ EU referendum deal has been watered down even further, according to documents leaked last night.

    The Prime Minister’s draft agreement with Brussels had already been condemned as ‘feeble’ by Tory backbenchers. But No 10’s hopes of bolstering the deal ahead of next week’s summit were dashed by an updated version which critics say is even worse."


    Oh Dear ...... has it just become even worse for Cameron?

    It was unlikely that the Mail would find anything in the EU deal to cheer......what's worse - a parachute with one hole in it, or one with two?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage advocating leaving the EEA as well as EU.

    Really?
    He was banging on about controlling borders and tariffs. That means not being in the EEA.
    Fail to see how this is a massive shock since its in the kipper manifesto.

    TO REFORM OUR IMMIGRATION SYSTEM UKIP WILL:
    Take back control of our borders
    • Put a five-year moratorium on immigration for unskilled workers,
    which will enable the unemployed already living here to find work and
    those already working to see wage growth
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based system to manage the
    number and skills of people coming into the country, treating all
    citizens of the world on a fair and equal basis as a welcoming,
    outward-looking country
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    Indigo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage advocating leaving the EEA as well as EU.

    Really?
    He was banging on about controlling borders and tariffs. That means not being in the EEA.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based system
    How can you 'introduce' a system that is already in place, and has been, since 2008?
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even more eurosceptic post EU ref

    Why?
    As either it will be a narrow Remain in which case they will feel robbed, or it is Leave in which case they will back the best Leave candidate available
    Oh, if it's Leave then all bets are off, because obviously we will need a different team to negotiate the new terms. But if it's Remain, I simply don't get this idea that there will be an appetite for a rerun. Voters will have spoken, the matter will be closed.
    If Remain wins but the their campaign promises are quickly proven false,(e.g, the next EU treaty commits all member states to full union by 2050) they'll be accused of campaigning in bad faith, cheating their way to victory.

    If this happens, and the Remain margin of victory is narrow, say under 5%, expect loud calls to rerun the referendum, this time with both sides campaigning honestly.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Betfair EUREF vote share market finally up;

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.122981377
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage advocating leaving the EEA as well as EU.

    Really?
    He was banging on about controlling borders and tariffs. That means not being in the EEA.
    Fail to see how this is a massive shock since its in the kipper manifesto.

    TO REFORM OUR IMMIGRATION SYSTEM UKIP WILL:
    Take back control of our borders
    • Put a five-year moratorium on immigration for unskilled workers,
    which will enable the unemployed already living here to find work and
    those already working to see wage growth
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based system to manage the
    number and skills of people coming into the country, treating all
    citizens of the world on a fair and equal basis as a welcoming,
    outward-looking country
    Exactly. So not compatible with membership of the EEA, which is what the original point was.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Lib Dems beating UKIP ! UKIP didn't even last until the ref !
    Faragism sweeping the nation once more!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Mail Online:

    "David Cameron’s ‘thin gruel’ EU referendum deal has been watered down even further, according to documents leaked last night.

    The Prime Minister’s draft agreement with Brussels had already been condemned as ‘feeble’ by Tory backbenchers. But No 10’s hopes of bolstering the deal ahead of next week’s summit were dashed by an updated version which critics say is even worse."


    Oh Dear ...... has it just become even worse for Cameron?

    If, as it seems, the latest changes have put the City offside, then much worse.
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    UKIP down about 10% in each of Hounslow, Coventry and Bolton results.
    LibDems up around 5.5% in two and 0.5% in the other.
    Con roughly the same.
    Lab up 10.5% in two, 0.3% in the third.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2016
    The Tory Party seems to be gathering for a "love-in" !

    Don't worry, Dave ! The Socialists are with you.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    UKIP down about 10% in each of Hounslow, Coventry and Bolton results.
    LibDems up around 5.5% in two and 0.5% in the other.
    Con roughly the same.
    Lab up 10.5% in two, 0.3% in the third.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects

    Apparently, it is all the fault of Muslims !
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    Danny565 said:

    Oh God, Liz Kendall is about to compare herself to Hillary Clinton.

    A reasonable comparison. They are both rude, arrogant, self-centred, have a long track record of failure, female, and get walloped by geriatric socialists who inspire messianic fervour in the party's activist base.

    I doubt if that was what she meant, of course!

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    eekeek Posts: 25,019

    Mail Online:

    "David Cameron’s ‘thin gruel’ EU referendum deal has been watered down even further, according to documents leaked last night.

    The Prime Minister’s draft agreement with Brussels had already been condemned as ‘feeble’ by Tory backbenchers. But No 10’s hopes of bolstering the deal ahead of next week’s summit were dashed by an updated version which critics say is even worse."


    Oh Dear ...... has it just become even worse for Cameron?

    It was unlikely that the Mail would find anything in the EU deal to cheer......what's worse - a parachute with one hole in it, or one with two?
    a parachute with no hole in it?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even more eurosceptic post EU ref

    Why?
    As either it will be a narrow Remain in which case they will feel robbed, or it is Leave in which case they will back the best Leave candidate available
    Oh, if it's Leave then all bets are off, because obviously we will need a different team to negotiate the new terms. But if it's Remain, I simply don't get this idea that there will be an appetite for a rerun. Voters will have spoken, the matter will be closed.
    If Remain wins but the their campaign promises are quickly proven false,(e.g, the next EU treaty commits all member states to full union by 2050) they'll be accused of campaigning in bad faith, cheating their way to victory.

    If this happens, and the Remain margin of victory is narrow, say under 5%, expect loud calls to rerun the referendum, this time with both sides campaigning honestly.
    This is music to my ears. The Tory Party will never be reconciled to a REMAIN win !
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,902
    surbiton said:



    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory membership is eurosceptic and will become even more eurosceptic post EU ref

    Why?
    As either it will be a narrow Remain in which case they will feel robbed, or it is Leave in which case they will back the best Leave candidate available
    Oh, if it's Leave then all bets are off, because obviously we will need a different team to negotiate the new terms. But if it's Remain, I simply don't get this idea that there will be an appetite for a rerun. Voters will have spoken, the matter will be closed.
    If Remain wins but the their campaign promises are quickly proven false,(e.g, the next EU treaty commits all member states to full union by 2050) they'll be accused of campaigning in bad faith, cheating their way to victory.

    If this happens, and the Remain margin of victory is narrow, say under 5%, expect loud calls to rerun the referendum, this time with both sides campaigning honestly.
    This is music to my ears. The Tory Party will never be reconciled to a REMAIN win !
    They can afford not to be, as they're the only show in town.

    Hopefully, the issue won't arise, if Leave win.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,902

    isam said:

    isam said:

    That northern WWC just loves dem kippers doesn't it?
    Crompton had three times the amount of Asians than the Bolton average in 2007, I shouldn't think it has decreased

    http://www.bolton.gov.uk/sites/DocumentCentre/Documents/Crompton PDF.pdf
    The vote has gone down by half.

    Yet we are told that Corbyn goes down in Northern England like a cup of cold sick while Faragism sweeps the nation. Colour me a little sceptical!
    I would have thought corbynism goes down very well In areas with huge muslim populations like Crompton, and Farage goes down like cold sick
    UKIP got 21% in 2014, 10% tonight.

    Do muslims breed that fast? Or is it that UKIP are flopping here? It looks like the latter to me!
    White flight is the term you are looking for.
    Since May 2014?

    Or is it that the people have seen through the kippers...
    Half the turnout would not have helped. I have lost enthusiasm for Ukip, for me the GE is four years away and the most important thing is the referendum.

    Having said that Farage was good on QT
    Half the vote on half the turnout? So only 25% of those who voted kipper in May 2014 were willing to turn out again for the kippers. Faragism sweeping the nation...
    As I said the referendum is much more important than the Ukip vote, if you read much into this by election that is up to you.

    I care about coming out of the horrible EU, not the long term prospects of Ukip
    In both Coventry and Bolton parties supporting Remain go up, Leavers go down...
    i doubt if one can read very much into a couple of local elections, in terms of the EU referendum.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Why would anybody listen to an "erratic Marxist"? At least Corbyn isn't erratic.

    Well, OK, apart from on defence..
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    New Thread
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited February 2016

    Why would anybody listen to an "erratic Marxist"? At least Corbyn isn't erratic.

    Well, OK, apart from on defence..
    I don't think he'd be thrilled to be called either. But modern socialism doesn't actually have much more than a name link to Marxism. It owes a lot more to Stalinism.

    He is however undoubtedly erratic, and not just on defence. Who could forget his positions on collective responsibility and cabinet reshuffles a mere six weeks after he flip-flopped on the subject?
This discussion has been closed.