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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Hampshire aftermath: This week’s PB/Polling Matters

SystemSystem Posts: 12,370
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Hampshire aftermath: This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show looks at where the race stands now

Although the outcome in both the Republican and Democratic races in the New Hampshire primary was completely in line with the polls the results have come as a massive shock. One thing’s for sure – previous assumptions about how US elections work don’t apply any more and we look forward with a great degree of uncertainty.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    First!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,287
    Second.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Another fascinating podcast - thank you Keiran, Mike & the ladies from the US.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    If Jeb Bush does start to get some traction, it is purely down to his war chest allowing him to stay in the race when others would have bowed to the inevitable consequence of their undesirability as candidate. I'd find that pretty distasteful if I were a Republican. "Here's another guy we're getting foisted upon us because he can buy the White House...." And I think Trump will be able to use it to fire up Republicans who feel likewise - especially if he plugs away at the notion that election finance has to change.

    Which is going to mean Trump has to get over the awkward fact that he has got as far as he has because of the squllions he has at his disposal. But he can counter that - he spent a tiny fraction to win New Hampshire that Bush spent to come fourth. "You get more bang for your buck with Trump" wouldn't be a bad message to get resonating....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,901
    Interesting analysis of Bernie's appeal:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/10/opinions/sanders-views-are-mainstream-zelizer/index.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MarqueeMark said:

    comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality.

    Reality has no place in Scottish politics.

    The Zoomers still love Nicola

    @Paulmoravia: Kezia would accept Cameron's attempts to bully Scotland. Ruth would actively encourage it. only Nicola will stand up to him #BothVotesSNP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,022
    Pollsters error (RCP Av)

    Iowa:

    Bush -1.3
    Cruz +3.7
    Kasich -1.0
    Rubio +6.2
    Trump -4.3

    Clinton +1.9
    Sanders +5.7

    New Hampshire

    Bush -0.5
    Cruz -0.1
    Kasich +2.3
    Rubio -3.5
    Trump +4.1

    Clinton -3.2
    Sanders +5.9
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    'John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, said that Scotland would be the sixth richest nation in the world based on GDP per head'

    He's a funny guy.

    Still, the SNP can always find an expert to make up the difference with sweeteners from back-to-back property deals. OAPs are the new 'black gold' in Scotland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,796
    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    DavidL said:

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The problem is that 45% of Scotland voted to tell us to get lost. Several million people north of the border decided they hated those south of the border and their "Tory Governments" so much that they voted to break away. As chance happened, they were unlucky, but not for want of trying. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Scots want us to get lost, how is it unfair to expect them to live with the consequences of that.

    At the moment the Scots are in the enviable position of seeing some of the consequences of breaking away without having to be bound by it, I think there many on both sides of the EURef vote that would be pleased to have the same arrangement with Brussels!

    Obviously those Scots that want to be part of the UK have my sympathy, you cant choose your own countrymen after all ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."

    Devolution of taxes is in reality just giving a Chinese burn, compared to the full-on self-immolation that independence would have created. And actually, the situation would have been worse than has ben acknowledged. I doubt there would have been any net tax in the next ten years from Scottish oil. With 150 oil platforms set to be dismantled over the next decade the tax offset for these abandonment costs would have been massive for the Scottish exchequer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    Good morning, everyone.

    A week certainly is a long time in politics.

    Incidentally, this was mentioned yesterday, but as it was my first winning bet on horses for years, thanks to Old King Cole for a 40/1 (or more) tip on the 5.25 at Kempton (Winter White, I think). Was an each way winner, which is nice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,358
    edited February 2016
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The problem is that 45% of Scotland voted to tell us to get lost. Several million people north of the border decided they hated those south of the border and their "Tory Governments" so much that they voted to break away. As chance happened, they were unlucky, but not for want of trying. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Scots want us to get lost, how is it unfair to expect them to live with the consequences of that.

    At the moment the Scots are in the enviable position of seeing some of the consequences of breaking away without having to be bound by it, I think there many on both sides of the EURef vote that would be pleased to have the same arrangement with Brussels!

    Obviously those Scots that want to be part of the UK have my sympathy, you cant choose your own countrymen after all ;)
    The latest poll from yougov actually had No still narrowly ahead in Scotland in any indyref2
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,796
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."

    Devolution of taxes is in reality just giving a Chinese burn, compared to the full-on self-immolation that independence would have created. And actually, the situation would have been worse than has ben acknowledged. I doubt there would have been any net tax in the next ten years from Scottish oil. With 150 oil platforms set to be dismantled over the next decade the tax offset for these abandonment costs would have been massive for the Scottish exchequer.
    I agree that the North Sea has now moved to the debit side of the balance sheet with the clean up and decommissioning costs exceeding any realistic tax flow for the foreseeable future. There is also a risk those decommissioning costs will be accelerated by the fact much of the north sea is going to suffer accelerated closure and will not open again.

    Whilst the decommissioning itself will create a lot of work it will cost the taxpayer money not earn it and it will not pay the premium that jobs in the north sea did in the golden days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,792
    Morning all,

    I see Fiorina dropped out overnight. I had some good times with her a year ago when she was 160/1 and then got some traction.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
    They're a major attraction of the site for some of us. I expect malc needs to get his hooch down him first...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Within the UK system of course all the SNP need do is go quiet on the benefits from oil for now, moan about job losses in the sector and the UK government's 'inaction' on this and hope for the good times to come round again. Meanwhile they drag out the fiscal devolution talks endlessly. And the cult devotees, mostly shielded from the oil slump, keep on voting for them.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    runnymede said:

    Within the UK system of course all the SNP need do is go quiet on the benefits from oil for now, moan about job losses in the sector and the UK government's 'inaction' on this and hope for the good times to come round again. Meanwhile they drag out the fiscal devolution talks endlessly. And the cult devotees, mostly shielded from the oil slump, keep on voting for them.

    Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is "shielded" from economic reality, eh, Runny?

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The loss of revenue from the financial sector heading south of the border would have been a double whammy. Scotland really dodged a bullet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    DavidL said:


    I agree that the North Sea has now moved to the debit side of the balance sheet with the clean up and decommissioning costs exceeding any realistic tax flow for the foreseeable future. There is also a risk those decommissioning costs will be accelerated by the fact much of the north sea is going to suffer accelerated closure and will not open again.

    Whilst the decommissioning itself will create a lot of work it will cost the taxpayer money not earn it and it will not pay the premium that jobs in the north sea did in the golden days.

    The Scottish Economic Tiger: on the back of Black Gold Rusting Iron
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

    Surely the squeaky-clean nothing-to-see-here SNP aren't running frit of a bit of oversight?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    F1: Pascal Wehrlein gets the nod for Manor, as expected. His team mate is currently unknown:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35538851

    Possible Will Stevens (British chap) might get the gig.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tim Stanley's 2p http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/12151056/A-Michael-Bloomberg-presidential-run-would-only-boost-Donald-Trump.html
    A Michael Bloomberg presidential run would only boost Donald Trump
    If the moderate former New York mayor entered the White House race he'd risk losing his reputation and billions of dollars
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    watford30 said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    That will be when Dave dumps Gove again after his friend has come through by not supporting OUT :p

    "Gratitude is merely a lively expectation of favours to come."
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    HoganHowe gets duffed up at 0810 http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    Interesting to hear on the podcast/TV show that one of the American ladies thought Cruz worth backing (at current odds).
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    runnymede said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?

    So obvious, innit.

    "You're with me, or you lose out on a juicy appointment after June"

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:



    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

    Surely the squeaky-clean nothing-to-see-here SNP aren't running frit of a bit of oversight?
    John Mason, MSP adds endlessly to the Gaiety of the Nation:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.ah3Rq1Ov2

    When he's not gloating over scuppering an Organ Donation plan by SNP MSPs:

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/twitter-row-erupts-between-msps-in-wake-of-organ-donation-vote-1.923673
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    Mr. 30, quite.

    The problem for Cameron is he has a fairly closely defined exit date (and the PCP could choose to bring it forward). Someone axed from Cabinet in 2016 could be back in a year or two.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    When can we expect to hear about Dave's finalised "deal"?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,605
    watford30 said:

    runnymede said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?

    So obvious, innit.

    "You're with me, or you lose out on a juicy appointment after June"

    Cam learning from Jezza.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    "You're with me, or you lose out on a juicy appointment after June"

    Yep, it's the Maastricht bullying all over again, and will have exactly the same consequences.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    Its depressing to see Corbynites defending bullsh*t from the SNP - those who do not understand the past are condemned to repeat it.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    watford30 said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    A 'major' cabinet reshuffle can be expected to mean moving one and/or another of Chancellor Foreign Sec and Home Sec. And where do any of these senior positions move to? And who moves up to them? Have the authors of these rumours given any thought to that?
    And who has his hand up at the back of the class saying 'Please Sir, can I be Health Secretary please?'
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    FTSE down another 2%. Getting close to a 25% drop on last year.

    Lloyds trading at 56p. Way below sell off price.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,648
    A cautionary note is that I accidentally started hearing last week's podcast, and that was full of comments about how strong Rubio's position was. The authoritative-sounding commentaries can change, just like the rest of us. But very interesting listening, thanks!

    I was in the Commons giving a briefing yesterday, and an MP who I won't name said to me that he really likes PB, though he never posts - the best forum for interesting cross-boundary debate.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NickPalmer said:

    A cautionary note is that I accidentally started hearing last week's podcast, and that was full of comments about how strong Rubio's position was. The authoritative-sounding commentaries can change, just like the rest of us. But very interesting listening, thanks!

    I was in the Commons giving a briefing yesterday, and an MP who I won't name said to me that he really likes PB, though he never posts - the best forum for interesting cross-boundary debate.

    If you meet him again, please get him to post. Of course we bite, but that's half the fun.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The FT Brussels Briefing has some behind the scenes news on the progress of the renegotiations:

    http://on.ft.com/20q4exk

    The interesting stuff starts about halfway down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,792
    NickPalmer said:

    A cautionary note is that I accidentally started hearing last week's podcast, and that was full of comments about how strong Rubio's position was. The authoritative-sounding commentaries can change, just like the rest of us. But very interesting listening, thanks!

    I was in the Commons giving a briefing yesterday, and an MP who I won't name said to me that he really likes PB, though he never posts - the best forum for interesting cross-boundary debate.

    Lurking MPs? Whatever next.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    ...

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

    Yes this was a Scottish parliament committee proposal - sounds like the OBR - and the SNP backed away from it. But yesterday malc claimed it was imposed by Westminster tories.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    AlastairMeeks said:

    NickPalmer said:

    A cautionary note is that I accidentally started hearing last week's podcast, and that was full of comments about how strong Rubio's position was. The authoritative-sounding commentaries can change, just like the rest of us. But very interesting listening, thanks!

    I was in the Commons giving a briefing yesterday, and an MP who I won't name said to me that he really likes PB, though he never posts - the best forum for interesting cross-boundary debate.

    If you meet him again, please get him to post. Of course we bite, but that's half the fun.
    The notion of an MP who couldn't bite back has a certain je ne sais quoi...
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The problem is that 45% of Scotland voted to tell us to get lost. Several million people north of the border decided they hated those south of the border and their "Tory Governments" so much that they voted to break away. As chance happened, they were unlucky, but not for want of trying. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Scots want us to get lost, how is it unfair to expect them to live with the consequences of that.

    At the moment the Scots are in the enviable position of seeing some of the consequences of breaking away without having to be bound by it, I think there many on both sides of the EURef vote that would be pleased to have the same arrangement with Brussels!

    Obviously those Scots that want to be part of the UK have my sympathy, you cant choose your own countrymen after all ;)
    The latest poll from yougov actually had No still narrowly ahead in Scotland in any indyref2
    Indigo says 'several million people' It was in fact 1.6 million.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'But yesterday malc claimed it was imposed by Westminster tories.'

    It is, like everything else that is bad in Scotland including the weather and the rugby team.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    NickPalmer said:

    A cautionary note is that I accidentally started hearing last week's podcast, and that was full of comments about how strong Rubio's position was. The authoritative-sounding commentaries can change, just like the rest of us. But very interesting listening, thanks!

    I was in the Commons giving a briefing yesterday, and an MP who I won't name said to me that he really likes PB, though he never posts - the best forum for interesting cross-boundary debate.

    Interesting to hear Nick. I'm sure there are quite a few MP's who dip in from time to time. But it must be quite frustrating for those with limited time, wading through 2000 posts a day, maybe 200 of which offer them interesting soundings and insights. What pb.com ideally needs is a Daily Digest of the very best posts of the day. (Or - heaven forbid! - for some of us to rein in our posting about, F1, football, footwear, vegetables and the Punic Wars....)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    The big challenge for the Scottish economy is the separatists and their economic illiteracy - like a drunk waving a gun about we can all be glad it didn't go off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    Lady Haw Haw is started early today
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    The big challenge for the Scottish economy is the separatists and their economic illiteracy - like a drunk waving a gun about we can all be glad it didn't go off.
    The other cheek of the arse has joined now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
    This arse has many cheeks
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    Scott_P said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality.

    Reality has no place in Scottish politics.

    The Zoomers still love Nicola

    @Paulmoravia: Kezia would accept Cameron's attempts to bully Scotland. Ruth would actively encourage it. only Nicola will stand up to him #BothVotesSNP
    along comes cheek number 4 , two full arses now
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    watford30 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    'John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, said that Scotland would be the sixth richest nation in the world based on GDP per head'

    He's a funny guy.

    Still, the SNP can always find an expert to make up the difference with sweeteners from back-to-back property deals. OAPs are the new 'black gold' in Scotland.
    and a village idiot to boot
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    Lady Haw Haw is started early today
    And here comes that drunk, waving that gun around....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    Mr. Mark, rein in references to F1 and the Second Punic War? Are you mad, man?

    Not only have I helped educate the site regarding the excellence of Hannibal (notwithstanding the intransigence of certain individuals), I do, very occasionally, offer the odd tip on F1 (over 200, to date).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: I'm told Jeremy Hunt to make Commons Statement at 11.15am on junior docs contract. Is this it? Imposition?
    Or more brinkmanship?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2016
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    The big challenge for the Scottish economy is the separatists and their economic illiteracy - like a drunk waving a gun about we can all be glad it didn't go off.
    The other cheek of the arse has joined now
    Nothing wrong with the cheeks of an arse malc - its the dark hole and the warm air it exudes that is the unpleasant part - aka the SNP.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    runnymede said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?

    June after the referendum win or June after Boris ceased to be Mayor of London in May? I think we should be told.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    John Mason, MSP adds endlessly to the Gaiety of the Nation:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.ah3Rq1Ov2

    When he's not gloating over scuppering an Organ Donation plan by SNP MSPs:

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/twitter-row-erupts-between-msps-in-wake-of-organ-donation-vote-1.923673

    @patersonHT: Kidney patient resigns from SNP in anger over transplant Bill https://t.co/pgw4cO4yEo
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
    There are no Scottish Tories you buffoon, a handful of Westminster lackeys pretending is the best they get. As befits them they languish at the bottom of the pile, ignored and pitied.
    They need to hope for list seats as biggest losers to have any representation.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,648
    AlastairMeeks said:


    If you meet him again, please get him to post. Of course we bite, but that's half the fun.

    I told him to - he paled at the thought. The problem is that there isn't really an upside for a young upwardly-mobile MP. If he posts 100 comments and one is mildly controversial, it'll be used against him forever and his card will be marked as "unsafe". If all 100 are on-message, he'll be derided here and ignored elsewhere. I've always posted here because I enjoy it and open discussion is good, but I was never (pace SeanT, who STILL thinks I'm a careerist) - under many illusions about my career as a new MP pushing 50.

    I think there's scope for MPs to post under pseudonyms, merely saying that they're MPs, but they does unleash a guessing game - there was endless speculation about the pro-Labour snowflake, who posted intelligent economic commentaries. I think the general view was that it was Yvette, but she certainly told me that it wasn't, and she'd barely heard of the blog. Who knows?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    Lady Haw Haw is started early today
    And the first Godwin of the day goes to.......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
    There are no Scottish Tories you buffoon, a handful of Westminster lackeys pretending is the best they get. As befits them they languish at the bottom of the pile, ignored and pitied.
    They need to hope for list seats as biggest losers to have any representation.
    one day malc will have to resort to playing the man not the argument.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    David, we are not retaining more of anything , it is a money shuffling exercise whilst they are cutting the block grant as well. Not only that they want to keep cutting it in future , it is a wonder that these barstewards can sleep at night.
    Hopefully the Scottish Government will not accept their rigged fiscal framework.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,282
    watford30 said:

    runnymede said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?

    So obvious, innit.

    "You're with me, or you lose out on a juicy appointment after June"

    There'll be an even bigger reshuffle if there's a win for Leave.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The problem is that 45% of Scotland voted to tell us to get lost. Several million people north of the border decided they hated those south of the border and their "Tory Governments" so much that they voted to break away. As chance happened, they were unlucky, but not for want of trying. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Scots want us to get lost, how is it unfair to expect them to live with the consequences of that.

    At the moment the Scots are in the enviable position of seeing some of the consequences of breaking away without having to be bound by it, I think there many on both sides of the EURef vote that would be pleased to have the same arrangement with Brussels!

    Obviously those Scots that want to be part of the UK have my sympathy, you cant choose your own countrymen after all ;)
    On comes a halfwitted cretin who thinks voting to run your own country means you hate someone else. Is it any wonder people do not want to be linked to nasty cretinous halfwitted morons like you, look in the mirror.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    Hard to see how JH imposing the contracts is anything other than the culmination of bad negotiating by the BMA. They have over-played their hand.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    it is a money shuffling exercise whilst they are cutting the block grant as well. Not only that they want to keep cutting it in future

    @tomhgill: A must-read for anyone wanting to get to the nub of the current negotiation between Cameron and Sturgeon @kevverage https://t.co/CLB2IRcvgc

    Oh, sorry Malc, that excludes you...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    "Just a bonus"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12150849/North-Sea-makes-only-7-million-Scottish-tax-per-month.html

    The SNP didn't dodge the bullet, they dodged the Bomb. They have to be held to account at some point for the reckless risk that they were prepared to take with the livelihoods of the entire Scottish people. I really hope on March 24 - the day that would have marked Independence Day - that the Scottish Tories go on the attack, comparing what was promised with what wold have been the reality. That reality would have been Scotland with a begging bowl.

    And along will come malcolmg for a Tartan Tantrum in 5...4....3...
    They're a major attraction of the site for some of us. I expect malc needs to get his hooch down him first...

    Another ignoramus who has so little intelligence he cannot even make up an insult. When your acne stops in another 10 years or so you may wonder how you were born so thick.
    What a laugh you JSA warriors are.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,287
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: I'm told Jeremy Hunt to make Commons Statement at 11.15am on junior docs contract. Is this it? Imposition?
    Or more brinkmanship?

    I suspect it’s imposition. Interesting that the argument seems now largely around Saturday working. Can’t honestly see that working Saturday is “unsocial” if there’s another day off, plus extra allowance for Sunday. Millions of people regard Saturday as a normal working day.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    runnymede said:

    Within the UK system of course all the SNP need do is go quiet on the benefits from oil for now, moan about job losses in the sector and the UK government's 'inaction' on this and hope for the good times to come round again. Meanwhile they drag out the fiscal devolution talks endlessly. And the cult devotees, mostly shielded from the oil slump, keep on voting for them.

    the loons are out in force today, all the Little Englander sheeple are baaing away
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, rein in references to F1 and the Second Punic War? Are you mad, man?

    Not only have I helped educate the site regarding the excellence of Hannibal (notwithstanding the intransigence of certain individuals), I do, very occasionally, offer the odd tip on F1 (over 200, to date).

    The excellence of Hannibal is not entirely news, to be fair.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The problem is that 45% of Scotland voted to tell us to get lost. Several million people north of the border decided they hated those south of the border and their "Tory Governments" so much that they voted to break away. As chance happened, they were unlucky, but not for want of trying. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Scots want us to get lost, how is it unfair to expect them to live with the consequences of that.

    At the moment the Scots are in the enviable position of seeing some of the consequences of breaking away without having to be bound by it, I think there many on both sides of the EURef vote that would be pleased to have the same arrangement with Brussels!

    Obviously those Scots that want to be part of the UK have my sympathy, you cant choose your own countrymen after all ;)
    On comes a halfwitted cretin who thinks voting to run your own country means you hate someone else. Is it any wonder people do not want to be linked to nasty cretinous halfwitted morons like you, look in the mirror.
    Shock horror - malcolmg claims not to hate Sassenachs.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    runnymede said:

    Within the UK system of course all the SNP need do is go quiet on the benefits from oil for now, moan about job losses in the sector and the UK government's 'inaction' on this and hope for the good times to come round again. Meanwhile they drag out the fiscal devolution talks endlessly. And the cult devotees, mostly shielded from the oil slump, keep on voting for them.

    Anyone who doesn't vote Tory is "shielded" from economic reality, eh, Runny?

    He has something runny for sure but much more than his name.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    runnymede said:

    Within the UK system of course all the SNP need do is go quiet on the benefits from oil for now, moan about job losses in the sector and the UK government's 'inaction' on this and hope for the good times to come round again. Meanwhile they drag out the fiscal devolution talks endlessly. And the cult devotees, mostly shielded from the oil slump, keep on voting for them.

    the loons are out in force today, all the Little Englander sheeple are baaing away
    Thankfully malc never resorts to racism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    Sean_F said:

    watford30 said:

    runnymede said:

    Radio 4, rumours of a major Cabinet reshuffle in June, after an assumed win for 'Remain'.

    the PM's plan to split the Conservatives seems to remain on track :).

    Will he be approaching the Blairites next for a 'coalition of the conmen'?

    So obvious, innit.

    "You're with me, or you lose out on a juicy appointment after June"

    There'll be an even bigger reshuffle if there's a win for Leave.
    That is the calculation no doubt being made by some heavy hitters.They could be the ones deciding who sits where..... Or be offered Secretary of State for Scotland in June.....
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    edited February 2016
    The Financial Times has annotated the updated UK-EU draft memo:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2710400-UK-Negotiating-Text-2.html

    By far the biggest change is page 5 on protections for non-Euro economies in the finance sector. Rather than confirm that the UK can operate outside EU's single rule book for banks when Eurozone integrates, it now says that UK has to operate by the "corresponding rules" of the ECB.

    So in short, it now confirms that the City of London will be completely at the mercy of rules set by the ECB
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    David, we are not retaining more of anything , it is a money shuffling exercise whilst they are cutting the block grant as well. Not only that they want to keep cutting it in future , it is a wonder that these barstewards can sleep at night.
    Hopefully the Scottish Government will not accept their rigged fiscal framework.
    If the SNP wanted more money to spend they could have raised taxes...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    watford30 said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    The loss of revenue from the financial sector heading south of the border would have been a double whammy. Scotland really dodged a bullet.
    Thesis from a JSA specialist in its spare time
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:



    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

    Surely the squeaky-clean nothing-to-see-here SNP aren't running frit of a bit of oversight?
    John Mason, MSP adds endlessly to the Gaiety of the Nation:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-msp-part-of-me-believes-we-should-just-close-down-hospit#.ah3Rq1Ov2

    When he's not gloating over scuppering an Organ Donation plan by SNP MSPs:

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/twitter-row-erupts-between-msps-in-wake-of-organ-donation-vote-1.923673
    Tory HQ is upset today , bit of a flap over the Fiscal framework not getting signed , Toom
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,328
    Mr. Wanderer, it's news to some poor, unenlightened souls.

    Mr. Die, that's a critical point. And one neither Cameron nor Osborne appear to be fighting to change.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,127
    Bloody hell, how many sodding presenters have the new top gear got? I thought the BBC was having to cut back?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    The Financial Times has annotated the updated UK-EU draft memo:

    www.documentcloud.org/documents/2710400-UK-Negotiating-Text-2.html

    By far the biggest change is page 5 on protections for non-Euro economies in the finance sector. Rather than confirm that the UK can operate outside EU's single rule book for banks when Eurozone integrates, it now says that UK has to operate by the "corresponding rules" of the ECB.

    So in short, it now confirms that the City of London will be completely at the mercy of rules set by the ECB

    Ouch - tough one for the Remainians to defend.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    What do you expect from the Nasties, it is in their genes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,287
    FPT.
    Gareth of the Vale posted, in response to Chris A
    "Are you sure the overall bill is going up? I heard that a large chunk of the efficiency savings in the last NHS 5 year plan came from putting pressure on GPs to use a generic over a branded drug, where one was available. You also have to remember that there are always old drugs coming off patent, which can then be switched for a generic.

    That said some of the new drugs are expensive. Gilead is making a fortune off Sovaldi as it is a revolutionary new Hep C treatment. One good thing for the drug companies is that biologics are harder to genericize when they came off patent."

    I thought that had been done and dusted several years ago. I was employed to encourage GPs to switch around 2000 and by 2005 it was rare, in our area at any rate, to find GP’s using branded over generic, without a good reason.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloody hell, how many sodding presenters have the new top gear got? I thought the BBC was having to cut back?

    They certainly have ticked a few of their boxes. Nobody disabled though - shame on them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,022
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hard to see how JH imposing the contracts is anything other than the culmination of bad negotiating by the BMA. They have over-played their hand.

    It's one of those individual decisions that isn't particularly popular at the time, but come 2020 is completely forgotten about in it's own right, adding to the "Prepared to take tough decisions" + points for the Gov't.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,287
    TGOHF said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloody hell, how many sodding presenters have the new top gear got? I thought the BBC was having to cut back?

    They certainly have ticked a few of their boxes. Nobody disabled though - shame on them.
    How do you know? Just no-one in a wheelchair.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    malcolmg wakes up YET AGAIN with a bee in his kilt....

    Posting on Scottish matters is akin to paying a shilling to have the inmates of Bedlam perform for you.... On one level you feel bad about it, because they can't help themselves. But on another - it ain't half funny!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,127
    edited February 2016
    TGOHF said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloody hell, how many sodding presenters have the new top gear got? I thought the BBC was having to cut back?

    They certainly have ticked a few of their boxes. Nobody disabled though - shame on them.
    If there was a wheelchair user, the new line up would be pretty much exactly as that classic scene where Clarkson goes to a diversity meeting in the worlds smallest car.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OldKingCole said:

    TGOHF said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloody hell, how many sodding presenters have the new top gear got? I thought the BBC was having to cut back?

    They certainly have ticked a few of their boxes. Nobody disabled though - shame on them.
    How do you know? Just no-one in a wheelchair.
    Sorry - I didn't check my privilege - perhaps the Stig is deaf ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    flightpath01 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    ...

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Why do you categorise calling out bullshit on an epic scale as "gloating"? It just feeds into the Scottish victim mentality. "The English are rubbing our noses in reality. They are killing our dreams. The bastards..."
    This won't help on the 'calling out bullshit' front:

    Scotland’s finance secretary has been accused of killing off proposals in Holyrood to give a financial watchdog far greater powers to scrutinise his spending and borrowing plans.

    Labour and Conservative members of Holyrood’s finance committee said they were stunned after the Scottish National party’s MSPs on the committee suddenly rejected proposals they had helped draft to give the Scottish Fiscal Commission more independence and authority to review John Swinney’s budgets.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/11/snp-denies-nobbling-fiscal-commissions-oversight-powers

    NATIONALIST MSPs have sparked outrage at Holyrood after performing a remarkable u-turn to block measures they recommended just weeks ago.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14267740.U_turn_MSPs__took_leave_of_senses_or_were_nobbled_by_Swinney_/

    Yes this was a Scottish parliament committee proposal - sounds like the OBR - and the SNP backed away from it. But yesterday malc claimed it was imposed by Westminster tories.
    Thicko , you cannot even read , I said it was by pygmies from the London Labour regional sub-office and the London Tory regional sub office sockpuppets. The people do not vote for them but the pygmies still think they should decide what happens in the country.
    Luckily we have some real politicians that realise , combined they could not run a bath.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Interesting to hear on the podcast/TV show that one of the American ladies thought Cruz worth backing (at current odds).

    The US odds on predictit aren't the same as ours (You need to be a US citizen to register for theirs).

    The "Shares" they have are identical to Betfair, except I think potentially their system ties alot more cash up and the commission might well be alot higher with the structure. It also gets round their daft gambling laws !
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,287
    MarqueeMark said:

    malcolmg wakes up YET AGAIN with a bee in his kilt....

    Posting on Scottish matters is akin to paying a shilling to have the inmates of Bedlam perform for you.... On one level you feel bad about it, because they can't help themselves. But on another - it ain't half funny!

    Mr M, you & I frequently disagree, but this time ......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,092
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    The Financial Times has annotated the updated UK-EU draft memo:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2710400-UK-Negotiating-Text-2.html

    By far the biggest change is page 5 on protections for non-Euro economies in the finance sector. Rather than confirm that the UK can operate outside EU's single rule book for banks when Eurozone integrates, it now says that UK has to operate by the "corresponding rules" of the ECB.

    So in short, it now confirms that the City of London will be completely at the mercy of rules set by the ECB

    Let's see how many donors in the City that steers towards the Tories....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,957
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    It is depressing to see Tories delight in challenges for Scottish economy and therefore also the British economy.

    The big challenge for the Scottish economy is the separatists and their economic illiteracy - like a drunk waving a gun about we can all be glad it didn't go off.
    given you have f*** all to do with Scotland, do not live there and keep droning on about how we are parasites living off your JSA, why does it matter to you.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited February 2016
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    The deteriorating financial position of Scotland is nothing to gloat about. Yes, the SNP were seriously optimistic about future tax revenues and yes they bought a lot of votes in the referendum with false claims about how Scotland was not going to endure the cuts in public services but a new bonanza of smaller class sizes, better pensions and benefits for children etc etc. Yes, the real risks of a commodity based economy which the Nationalists pooh poohed have been vividly demonstrated. I can understand why people should think that they should not get away with such rank incompetence. But it is not really the current point.

    The fact remains that whilst the UK as a whole is a beneficiary of lower oil prices the Scottish economy is seriously suffering with a significant drop in the number of higher rate tax payers. This is a major concern whilst negotiations are taking place which will involve Scotland retaining a much larger share of its tax revenues and in exchange giving up a significant part of its claim on the UK pot. Devolution of the taxes, which I suspect the Nationalists saw as a means of demonstrating how Scotland would be better off on its own is putting services at risk.

    The collapse of the oil price has demonstrated how we are better together with shared risks. In the good years Scotland made a massively disproportionate contribution to the UK Treasury and everyone in the UK benefited to a significant extent. By pulling apart the threads that bind us the SNP and Scotland are in danger of getting the worst of both worlds.

    Hopefully the Scottish Government will not accept their rigged fiscal framework.
    For those who seek a slightly more nuanced analysis:

    http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/barnett-fair.html

    I fear that in their summit-fever rush for more powers the SNP made the mistake of believing their own grievance-rousing rhetoric about how badly the Union treats Scotland. The next few days of negotiation are critical: we're about to find out how high a price we're going to pay for the SNP's intemperate haste to seize more powers and weaken the bonds of Union.
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