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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Rubio faltering John Kasich could be the favoured non-Trump GOP contender in today’s New Hampshire primary
It’s primary election day in New Hampshire – the first full one of the 2016 campaign and the big developments over the past 24 hours have been on the Governor of Ohio John Kasich.
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"The tiny town of Dixville Notch cast the first votes at midnight, favouring Bernie Saunders and John Kasich.
Under New Hampshire state law, towns with populations of under 100 can apply to cast their vote as the clock strikes midnight and close the polling station as soon as everyone has voted.
Of the handful of voters in Dixville Notch, four chose Mr Sanders, while of the Republicans two picked Donald Trump and three went for Ohio Governor John Kasich."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35528033
On the Democratic side, however, the village's election results have less often predicted the nominee. In 2000, for example, Bill Bradley won the most votes among Dixville Notch's Democratic primary voters although Al Gore was the party's eventual nominee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
On the general election, they've not voted against the winner since 1996. Obama and Romney tied last time but that itself could be argued to be a fair representation of the result.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35529680
Who does a billionaire Wall St liberal damage most? I'd have thought probably the most establishment candidate, which looks like being Hillary?
And does anyone think Trump would win New York?
Thornbury coming on later...
@PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham says Labour splits on Trident may be "impossible to reconcile", says he would definitely vote for renewal. @BBCr4today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12147434/Hillary-Clinton-is-fighting-for-her-political-life-in-New-Hampshire.html
*take me out and shoot me now
Going through his views, most of the social ones are traditionally republican - but he looks to be a man of compomise. Both his parents were Democrat, so perhaps that has alot to do with it. Economically he looks to have been superb for Ohio.
A system that chucks up a geriatric socialist, a real estate speculator turned reality TV star and a wall st billionaire makes Labours system of picking a leader look good!
I note down thread she will be on R4 soon.. Like to see how her comments to the PLP get questioned.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/labour-mps-spitting-fire-after-trident-showdown-with-thornberry/
But perhaps a bit too sensible for current electorates.
Clueless. Too much pork life has affected her brain function.
Best quote from the comments -
'Perhaps we could fit the missiles to a fleet of white vans that would constantly patrol the country's motorways - it would be a lot cheaper than submarines. I wonder what Ms Thornberry would make of that.'
Huff-Puff – At another fractious meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in the Commons, furious MPs heckled Ms Thornberry as she answered their questions on her review of defence policy.
Former defence minister Kevan Jones MP declared at one point during the heated gathering “you’re an embarrassment”, and left the meeting saying she was “waffly and incoherent.. cringeworthy”.
Pro guns, though he did pass a bill limiting assault rifles !
Anti marijuana though he considers it a "State issue".
I guess that level of comprmise is TOO MUCH! for most GOP
That's no way for Labour MPs to treat Colonel Thornberry.
I agree that the Perot case is far less clear cut.
Edit: ah, here we go:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/new-hampshire-dixville-notch-midnight-vote_us_56b979d2e4b01d80b247a0ed
I would point out that the Japanese government's debts are more than 240% of GDP, that nominal GDP has been stagnant for at least a decade, and that the country's working age population is in constant decline.
Caveat emptor, as the saying goes.
What do you think the consequence of the rate change will be?
Gloria Steinem:
Asked why the former secretary of state isn't doing better among young women, Steinem said females typically don’t start taking politics seriously until they get older.
"When you're young, you're thinking, 'Where are the boys?' The boys are with Bernie," Steinem added.
Albright:
“There is a special place in hell for women who don't help other women." (Directed at female Sanders supporters)
And oh how Hilary laughed.
It's almost as big a sample as some of those polls we've been seeing...
Bloomberg could also make a difference, costing Hillary votes. Could he win against Sanders/Trump? I'd vote for him if I had the option under those circumstances. I don't think he would win against any other Dem/Rep combination.
A really 'off the wall' question - could either of the main parties draft him ( a former Democrat the Republican before he became Independent) in a brokered convention?
Not going to happen, though, I guess.
Also being endorsed by the New York Times would be like a Tory candidate being endorsed by the Guardian here.
The Japanese situation is just insane. It may prove to be the most effective Bankers tax yet. You have to hold a significant part of your capital in bonds but rather than give you a return on that capital we will charge you for the job of holding it.
New Hampshire (without Trump)
6/4 Kasich
6/4 Rubio
5/1 Bush
6/1 Cruz
25/1 Christie
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/
I still think by the time they have worked out who the real challenger is it may well be over.
* Sane obviously being a relative term.
Rubio doesn't seem anywhere so his odds should slip, ditto for Bush; assuming the markets are sensible.
You know you're fucked when your opponents are pitying you.
Lord West has already called the programme to say that she's talking complete nonsense.
Who to believe? An Admiral or a professional pie eater?
Won't be Labour or the Lib Dems. There are local parties, UKIP, the Loonies, perhaps the Pirates. Or I could despoil my ballot with an amusing limerick.
Rehabilitation of prisoners is important, but they're there because they broke the law (often seriously). Retribution is also a legitimate aspect of the prison system.
If the GOP race somehow ends in a deadlock, with something like Trump 40 Cruz 40 Rubio 5 Kasich 5 Bush 5 the rest 5, then how on earth does the nomination not go to not only neither main candidate but also none of the secondaries? Could 80% of the delegates, pledged to a maverick or an ultra-conservative, accept a Wall St liberal; one who didn't even run?
He *might* be a better bet on the Dem side, but only in the sense of 1000/1 rather than 10000/1. Firstly, Hilary would have to fall. Secondly, she'd have to do so at a time that doesn't hand the majority of delegates to Sanders. Thirdly, Sanders himself would have to perform poorly enough to justify the convention overlooking him. And then there needs to be good reason to reject every Democrat, including the sitting VP who's positioned himself well as first reserve, in favour of an independent who last ran as a Republican.
It might be an off-the-wall question but it's worth asking - there is good cold logic to the idea. I don't think it'd affect his overall odds though: he's still a good deal more likely to win as an independent than as a party candidate (and he's not at all likely to win as an independent).
Maybe it's a long-term plan. Labour uses underwater (and fictional) drones to excuse having no subs*, and then actual drones to excuse a policy of disbanding the army.
*Except Labour do want subs. Just without nukes. So even if Thornberry were making a valid point about submarines and drones (she isn't), Labour's policy would still be to have the apparently vulnerable submarines.
'UKIP MEP claims most Scots want to leave EU - but polls say the opposite
...Mr Coburn, who said he would be the leading voice for the ‘out’ movement in Scotland, also launched a scathing attack on the head of the Scottish wing of the main ‘in’ campaign, Britain Stronger in Europe.
Professor Mona Siddiqui, an expert in Islamic studies at Edinburgh University, was unveiled on Sunday as chair of Scotland Stronger in Europe’s Advisory group.
Mr Coburn said: “It’s all very well for her and middle class people like that — the EU means they can get more nannies, cheaper nannies, that sort of thing..."'
http://tinyurl.com/hvnx6lj
I guess this is what happens when you move to the ghastly, non existent, "centre ground". Political bollox which means "I'll say anything I have to in order to win votes".
Edited extra bit: comments on a change.org petition suggest the situation at the Crewe school was horrendous:
https://www.change.org/p/board-of-governors-for-sir-william-stanier-mr-fraser-should-resign-as-head-of-sir-william-stanier/c
Not heard a peep about this from the media.
Edited extra bit 2: And a counterpoint (picture is of a police statement suggesting it was a much smaller incident):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaZ486pVIAAfHs8.jpg:large
Buchanan and Browne also won only 33,899 votes between them; only just over a third the total that Nader won.
#OnThisDay 1945: British submarine Venturer sinks German sub U-864 – the only time a sub has sunk another while both were submerged #WW2
Hmmm yes but people have been calling the collapse of the JGB market since yields were at 2%...
I remember Spy Story by Len Deighton about 30 years ago commenting that there were listening posts underwater between Greenland, Iceland and Norway to detect the movement of nuclear submarines and I can believe things might have moved on since but oceans are big and detectability is short range.
As I understand it the next generation of Trident can hit anywhere from anywhere. That is an even bigger place to look.
Sure there are some prisoners who should have the key thrown away and be left at the mercy of other prisoners to deliver adequate pain and suffering, but that isn't an attitude that is acceptable in a civilised society.
Submarines themselves find it difficult enough to hunt down other submarines, and that's with tens of personnel, huge arrays of detectors, and equipment bays full of power hungry processing kit.
The fact that Admiral Lord West, who was in last nights PLP meeting, is countering her points behind the scenes whilst the party's Shadow Defence Minister is embarrassing herself in a live interview says as much as you need to know. Red on Red.
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2016/02/08/cameron-prison-reform-speech-in-full
Personally I would make that a condition of their release back into the community but the quid pro quo (and we have had a series of problems with this is the Scottish Prison service) is that the treatment and therapy has to be available.
Proportion of UK population aged 65+ will grow from 18% in 2014 to 25% in 2044 #ageing https://t.co/gppyf3VUVa… https://t.co/9LtHqLQtnO
I doubt Lady Nugee would recognise a pie if one fell on her head.....
With a nice serviette.
Tweet from Labour MP, and member of Commons Defence Ctte Madeleine Moon after last night's PLP meeting:
Oh dear oh dear omg oh dear oh dear need to go rest in a darkened room
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GIUK_gap
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS
Of course, there is one group I do want out of prison much more quickly, instead of British taxpayers forking out for their bed and breakfast: and that is foreign national offenders.
Are you really still falling for this nonsense? Several pb tories are seeing the light, you'll get there in the end.
Those jailed as a result of the Rochdale, Rotherham and Oxford abuse cases, for example, are, I am sure, in “ordinary”prisons.