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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting moves a notch to REMAIN following the lat
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting moves a notch to REMAIN following the latest from Tusk
The EU renegotiation would make Britain even stronger, with a 'red card' on EU laws & important reforms on benefits pic.twitter.com/276E2pzlrx
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I think the answer is after a deal is agreed on 20th Feb (if, indeed, that happens).
So in summary then on the EU "new deal", I think the verdict will be that Cameron has secured us some concessions and a bit of wriggle room we don't currently have on free movement. Good, but not quite what he pitched for.
As for everything else, we have some platitudes and possibly helpful changes to give us a bit more leverage to not be completely screwed over going forward - but most of those platitudes are, i'm afraid to say, already there in many of the EU texts, treaties, communiques etc. And in most cases, the EU institutions just ride roughshod over them and say they have complied.
So why will things be any different going forward?
The vote, should it actually happen, boils down to "you will have the EU set up you currently have, but with a bit more scope for limiting inward migration - take it or leave it".
My fear - as an instinctive 'remainist' - is that by voting "Remain" I am not implicitly endorsing all that the EU currently does but also endorsing the "new deal". I don't want to do either.
So although I don't really want to leave the EU as such, I feel Cameron has stupidly forced me to have to vote leave - or abstain on the biggest decision facing the country in a generation.
As several people have pointed out, almost everything the Remain people say pushes many people towards Leave. Just as everything the Leave people do pushes people towards Remain.
Presumably at some stage the referendum will talk about issues beyond the narrow interests of the Conservative Party.
I'm reading memo right now. First interesting thing is that Cameron has agreed not to stand in the way of further Euro integration, giving up future leverage.
Of course this time round, Cameron Out is achieved by voting Leave. So that may shift the Scotland figures away from Remain, for the uneducated and uncommitted. The sort of folk who pissed themselves laughing posting pig jokes on social media.
Or wishful thinking on my part...
Well done OGH - twas a brave move, based on polling alone methinks.
So what’s different in US politics this morning from yesterday morning ? (Numbered tweets follow …)
1) The Republican donor elite now has a clearer idea where to direct money - and assurance they won’t have to make their peace w Cruz.
2) Religious GOPers have at last found a candidate able to articulate their vision and make proper use of their clout.
3) The conventional metrics of politics - money & organization - continue to matter. Obvi, I know, but yesterday you heard doubts
4) On the D side: the resistance to Hillary Clinton remains strong, but …
5) Bernie Sanders is not an adequate alternative to win even Iowa, one of the (if not THE) most promising states for Clinton resistance
Incidentally has anyone seen REMAIN paint any sort of picture about that a post-Remain vote EU will look like, because the answer definitely isn't "just like now".... Ever.Closer.Union, it doesn't matter what the agreement says, we will still be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ which has explicitly as part of its mandate and founding principles, furthering the depth and breadth of the union.
*Betting Post*
If May does declare for Leave I expect her odds to come in rapidly and supersede Boris as 2nd favourite for next PM after Osborne and next Tory leader.
So I think now is the time to back her.
You can get her at 10/1 for next PM on Betfair.
DYOR as PfP always says.
[the fact that most EU immigrants come to work or study]
Leading to a potential scenario of Remain followed by no change in the number of EU immigrants. What is Lab's position on it all? Presumably Jezza (will it be he?) won't lead off on all these bl**din' immigrants.
I think most people are scratching their heads because although it is a nudge, for the reason you state, benefits restriction wouldn't necessarily affect immigration numbers.
As instinctive as it is to support the leader of my party, I cannot. Unless he swings around and campaigns for Leave.
I'll be voting leave in June, by the looks of it.
No amount of great delivery makes up for a lack of substantial red meat. I'd like to have been surprised and convinced as a Party bod.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/
Strike that, Guido has a Hague quote from 2008......Apols
He's so Me Me Me.
Unlike Rubio!
She's not impressed.
What happens when the level of immigration next year is higher than this year, despite the handbrake.
and the EU passes some laws (notably ones giving themselves competence over social security, currently waiting in the wings) and the Red Card is revealed as the sham it is.
... just as the economy turns down...
Which is more than can be said for the Libs nowadays.
I don't see where his MP votes will come from, yet alone the membership.
Many Tories here are saying No. And I'd rather rely on that than margin of error polls that have misled us again and again.
"The home secretary is demanding that Mr Cameron holds firm on tougher measures to stop the abuse of EU migration rules, raising fears in Downing Street that she could refuse to back the reform deal that he has been seeking in Brussels this week.
Mrs May, who has not ruled out heading the Brexit campaign, wants Brussels to close a back-door route into Britain that is being used by migrants from outside the EU.
The home secretary is insisting that residency restrictions imposed on the non-EU spouses and other family members of Britons should also apply to European citizens seeking to settle families in the UK."
The relevant part for those without a subscription.
Reading the 'Draft Decision of the Heads of State' statement, I'm not entirely clear how much is restatement and making more explicit that [current EU policy is understood to give the UK what it wants anyway] and how much changes EU policy by adding new line items.
Section D on Benefits is the only one that clearly divides 'Implementation of Current EU Rules' and new proposals.
Section C on Sovereignty is simply a clarification on what ever closer union and subsidiarity are meant to mean, with the point that the EU can only have powers conferred on it by Treaties agreed by all a strong statement of fact. Point 3, the red card bit, does seem to have some substance, but my question would be how often does draft EU legislation actually overreach the powers conferred on it, so how often would this really come into play?
Section B on competitiveness seem like some woolly words declaring an intent to reduce red tape.
Section A on Euro governance also seem to restate a lot of what is already understood - my only thought would be whether the 'full reimbursement' of money taken for emergency support of the Euro from pots contributed by non-Euro members is something that already exists in some form or is it new?
Overall, it solidifies my impression of the EU, not as something which has been 'done unto us' as much Eurosceptic talk would have us believe, but something that we already participate in very largely on our own terms - if and when the EU annoys you, then the finger of blame should be directly squarely at UK governments for what they have more than willingly agreed to over the years, including entry. And the fact that the UK already sits at one side on many of the EU more crisis hit policies - the Euro, asylum/Schengen, is a testament to the ability of the UK not to agree to anything it simply doesn't want.
If the club simply doesn't do any of what you want it to achieve, no amount of flexibility will say 'remain' and that's all good. However, in terms of how the club has treated the UK as a member over the years, I cannot see the justification for any exit based simply on grievance at how the club operates.
Vardy ew at 5s for top Prem looks a fantastic bet to me w the same firm
* #Meme1: The EU is an Eternal Villain. Anything good it does must be characterised as "would have happened anyway". Anything bad that happens must be blamed on it, no matter how implausibly
* #Meme2: The EU is a Infinite Villain. The statement "I would have voted Remain if Cameron had negotiated X but he didn't so I'll vote Leave, such a pity" where X is a member of the set of all possible things
* #Meme3: The EU is the Immortal Villain. Anything bad that might happen in a future EU must be presented as fact, no matter how improbable it is.
Karl Rove once said "when you're explaining, you're losing". Unless 'Out' can find a counter to his position that doesn't involve a load of detail, they'll be struggling badly.
Or are you (as, to your credit, you very honestly described on here) going to be a pansy and back Remain?
http://capx.co/george-osborne-probably-wont-even-stand-to-be-the-next-tory-leader/
Edit: Farage is in fact saying it on R4 as I type although I appreciate that might do more harm than good.
And I know all the arguments. Heck, I could write half the posters lines on here;
Flightpath: Cameron, yay! Great! Wow! Amazing job!
Blackburn: Disgrace, migrants
SeanT: Feeble, disastrous
David Herdson: After much deliberation...
etc...
BORING BORING BORING
We'll just have to wait for the polls.
I'm feeling torn. Chuffed it's so crap and disappointed that it is so dismal. I feel sorry for pro EU sorts that their club doesn't give a shit about them. It's insulting in yer face real politick.
The scary thing for me about this, is what if all these failures turn into successes - what if we get a bit more than these things? Will that then be all ok? When Cameron got elected to the leadership he was talking serious repatriation of powers. That's been whittled down to sawdust.
1. The original deal was one the company should never have entered into.
2. I am completely shite at renegotiating.
#Meme3 is probably the most prevalent, with some posters constantly harping on about Turkey joining the EU. Something that is at least an order of magnitude (and probably two orders of magnitude) less likely than the disintegration of the EU.
In the global top 50 we have 10 universities, the EU has 2 and they are both French, and it is 18 UK vs 17 EU in the top 100.
Our universities are better. There is no argument to be had.
Personally, I'm praying for a schengen collapse too sometime in the summer.
Still, I'm interested in your 10K bets. Any hints/tips?
Richard: 'Under the circumstances, a masterstroke by Cameron - he grows in stature every day'
Michael K: '3 million migrants are invading the chunnel, spelling out 'Alluhah Akbar' as they go (later turns out to be a twitter hoax)
Scot T '[insert someone's tweet]'
Sorry to all, I'm only joshing.
We were just making up the numbers to cover their arses.
Like I said, insulting. It's reinforced my Leave.
Even at the height of the troubles, we realised that securing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland was not achievable at a sensible cost.
The ECJ is where the majority of our problems with the EU stem.
* unfortunately by Cruz, but Rubio almost overhauled him too.
A red card means a red card - hold it up and play stops right now. Not try to persuade a bunch of people to support us.
Mind you, Cameron did sound a tad embarrassed from the bit I heard - talking about more work to be done etc as if he knew it sounded crap.
Unfortunately as ever, 90-95% of teh respondent swill be at best ill-informed and at worst entirely ignorant
That's my overwhelming take away from today. The EU simply doesn't want us to stay.