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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the poll

SystemSystem Posts: 12,293
edited 2016 25 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last time Hillary Clinton fought New Hampshire the pollsters did worse than the British ones at GE2015

One of the great night on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    FPT - a Bloomberg intervention would be likely to cost Sanders votes from moderates who wouldn't stomach Trump and weren't socialists. That would in all likelihood damage the Democrats.

    I could see Bloomberg gifting Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - and perhaps Virginia - to Trump, along with their 80 electoral college votes.

    Game over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited 2016 25
    FPT @Tim_B

    I've found something worse than transparent To Go boxes. The damn thing is dishwasher safe!

    Are you talking about the to go box or the salmon?

    FPT @Plato_Says

    John Ashmore // "Everybody's getting along just fine" says Jeremy Corbyn about the Labour party. Just let that sink in.

    Of course they are.

    The people who don't like him aren't really in the Labour party. They just think they are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    Bernie and Trump win New Hampshire.

    Iowa is too close to call for both parties.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Many years ago, I watched a cooking show where Vincent Price cooked a salmon - in a dishwasher. He wrapped it in Bacofoil.
    Charles said:

    FPT @Tim_B

    I've found something worse than transparent To Go boxes. The damn thing is dishwasher safe!

    Are you talking about the to go box or the salmon?

    FPT @Plato_Says

    John Ashmore // "Everybody's getting along just fine" says Jeremy Corbyn about the Labour party. Just let that sink in.

    Of course they are.

    The people who don't like him and really in the Labour party. They just think they are.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    "There are enough moderates in each party and independents put off by the extreme tendencies of both Trump and Sanders to put Bloomberg in the White House. I don't have any hard numbers to back this up, just a gut feeling. In a race of extremes a moderate would do very well."

    Also - Bloomberg is the one guy who Trump reacts to. When Bloomberg talks, trump can't simply dismiss or ridicule him like he does with all the other nobodies he comes up against.
    Trumps tactics will work against Sanders, Clinton and the rest of the GOP field. Their words mean nothing to him.

    They won't work against Bloomberg.

    He can't help but listen to the guy.

    It would make for a fascinating campaign.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato_Says said:

    Many years ago, I watched a cooking show where Vincent Price cooked a salmon - in a dishwasher. He wrapped it in Bacofoil.

    Did Sky not cook a Turkey in the dishwasher at Christmas?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Mike one of Trump's fresh approaches to politics is to be prepared to talk openly and aggressively about HRC's enabling role in her husband's decades long misogyny and deeply questionable, potentially illegal, approach to women. He knows the HRC 'I've got ovaries' message plays with some voters and so will deepen his attacks to demonstrate HRC is no friend of the female vote. I'm sure it will get very ugly (as will emails, Benghazi, Bill, and all the rest of it) and the Donald will play hardball. The MSM just don't go there as HRC is their messiah. It will have a major impact. She's profoundly damaged goods and Trump will stick it right where it hurts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    I think Hillary will win NH again. Sanders will have an enthusiastic base but the mainstream Democratic voter will know that he cannot win and will plump for Hillary. I suspect people like Sanders have supporters who are far more likely to be polled than the average giving rise to the sort of problems we have seen here.

    Remember Bill Clinton also saved his campaign in NH. That State has known and voted for Clintons for a long time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Guardian Paywall?

    @BethRigby: Guardian: Relaunch enhanced membership offer with the aim of doubling reader revenues> an admission that free website not working?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    I agree with Nick Palmer. US polls aren't reliable.

    What's good about the fact there's no online betting in the US though is that the market is largely formed by Europeans who simply can't understand/fathom why anyone in their right mind would vote for Trump, which has kept his price nice & generous.

    I know very little about Sanders base.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    I think it's a bit unfair to characterise US Primary polling as "dodgy". It's true some have very low sample sizes. (294 in this national Republican one http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/zogby-internet-23562)

    Still, even with bigger sample sizes you'd get much bigger variance than you would in a poll which is asking people to identify with a particular party, because in many cases voters can easily see themselves picking a number of candidates and switching requires very little effort.

    IIRC, you could have got 100/1 about Clinton on the day of the 2008 NH Primary. Some accounts of the campaign relate that Obama's team had a bad feeling on the day, but that was never reflected in the betting markets.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Andrew Neil
    Best avoid France tomorrow: taxi drivers, farmers, air-traffic controllers and civil servants all set to strike.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "nice but in thrall to the undeserving"

    That's the nail right on the head.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    shadsy said:

    I think it's a bit unfair to characterise US Primary polling as "dodgy". It's true some have very low sample sizes. (294 in this national Republican one http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/zogby-internet-23562)

    Still, even with bigger sample sizes you'd get much bigger variance than you would in a poll which is asking people to identify with a particular party, because in many cases voters can easily see themselves picking a number of candidates and switching requires very little effort.

    IIRC, you could have got 100/1 about Clinton on the day of the 2008 NH Primary. Some accounts of the campaign relate that Obama's team had a bad feeling on the day, but that was never reflected in the betting markets.

    What do you make of the Bloomberg saga?

    His price seems to yoyo, largely in response to media coverage.

    Would you back him yourself?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Mr_Eugenides: Turns out the laws of economics apply to the Guardian, even if they don’t apply on the Guardian’s comment pages. https://t.co/SnCBLjDLUL
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html
    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,451
    NickPalmer said:


    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is

    I hate those sort of people - it's exceptionally rude.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    Plato_Says said:

    Andrew Neil
    Best avoid France tomorrow: taxi drivers, farmers, air-traffic controllers and civil servants all set to strike.

    I think he could simply have stopped his tweet after the third word
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Pong said:

    shadsy said:

    I think it's a bit unfair to characterise US Primary polling as "dodgy". It's true some have very low sample sizes. (294 in this national Republican one http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/zogby-internet-23562)

    Still, even with bigger sample sizes you'd get much bigger variance than you would in a poll which is asking people to identify with a particular party, because in many cases voters can easily see themselves picking a number of candidates and switching requires very little effort.

    IIRC, you could have got 100/1 about Clinton on the day of the 2008 NH Primary. Some accounts of the campaign relate that Obama's team had a bad feeling on the day, but that was never reflected in the betting markets.

    What do you make of the Bloomberg saga?

    His price seems to yoyo, largely in response to media coverage.

    Would you back him yourself?
    Having got Corbyn and Trump disastrously wrong, I'm a bit wary of writing Bloomberg off totally. I suppose if it's Trump v Sanders, he's got a shot; hard to think of a better scenario for a third party bid. I haven't backed him.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Frit 3x in a row

    Kevin Schofield
    Jeremy Corbyn won't be attending the weekly PLP meeting tonight, I'm told.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What do you make of the Bloomberg saga?

    Bloomberg feels like the establishment candidate in the most anti establishment period in decades.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    Pretty sobering stuff for Labour, with the party being described as the party for "down and outs".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284
    TGOHF said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "nice but in thrall to the undeserving"

    That's the nail right on the head.

    "Be competent."

    LOL

    but a v good doc, that said.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Andrew Neil
    Best avoid France tomorrow: taxi drivers, farmers, air-traffic controllers and civil servants all set to strike.

    I think he could simply have stopped his tweet after the third word
    Such a nice country too. Real shame the French live there.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato_Says said:

    Andrew Neil
    Best avoid France tomorrow: taxi drivers, farmers, air-traffic controllers and civil servants all set to strike.

    Ulp. Just checked into my flight to Paris for tomorrow...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Didn't see that, sounds revolting. Broiled turkey, yuck.
    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Many years ago, I watched a cooking show where Vincent Price cooked a salmon - in a dishwasher. He wrapped it in Bacofoil.

    Did Sky not cook a Turkey in the dishwasher at Christmas?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "For Scottish voters, Labour is indistinguishable from the Conservatives - just less competent"

    There's no coming back from that....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284
    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    His flaw was wanting to lord it around, live in Notting Hill and be the centre of attention and hold "brilliant" soirees.

    He had a hugely acute sense of politics, perhaps because he perceived himself as an outside aspirer.

    Plenty worse flaws than that.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Labour were known as Party for Single Mums and Welfare Junkies. Now it's Immigrants and Welfare Junkies.

    Same problem, different chord changes.
    TGOHF said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "nice but in thrall to the undeserving"

    That's the nail right on the head.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    Pong said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tim_B said:

    CNN now quoting Bloomberg as saying that he may well enter the race if Clinton doesn't get the nomination.

    Bloomberg would win in a Trump/Sanders race. The question is who he would caucus with after the victory.
    Really??

    You have some numbers to suggest this?
    There are enough moderates in each party and independents put off by the extreme tendencies of both Trump and Sanders to put Bloomberg in the White House. I don't have any hard numbers to back this up, just a gut feeling. In a race of extremes a moderate would do very well.
    Also - Bloomberg is the one guy who Trump reacts to. When Bloomberg talks, trump can't simply dismiss or ridicule him like he does with all the other nobodies he comes up against.

    Trumps tactics will work against Sanders, Clinton and the rest of the GOP field. Their words mean nothing to him.

    They won't work against Bloomberg. He can't help but listen to the guy.

    It would make for a fascinating campaign.
    Yes, he can easily dismiss Hilary or Sanders as "politicians". He would not be able to do that against a self made person like Bloomberg. Anything Trump has achieved in business, Bloomberg is better. Anything Trump has achieved in politics, Bloomberg is better. The issue in a three way fight vs Hilary is that he may leech away a lot of moderate republican support from Trump and hand the Dems the White House, but in a three way fight including Sanders he will pose a threat to both nominated candidates and get moderate support from Dems and GOP voters as well as hoover up loads of independents.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    edited 2016 25
    Plato_Says said:

    Labour were known as Party for Single Mums and Welfare Junkies. Now it's Immigrants and Welfare Junkies.

    Same problem, different chord changes.

    TGOHF said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "nice but in thrall to the undeserving"

    That's the nail right on the head.

    At the rate they're going Labour will be the Party for Terrorists and Ne'er Do Wells in Calais.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited 2016 25
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    His flaw was wanting to lord it around, live in Notting Hill and be the centre of attention and hold "brilliant" soirees.

    He had a hugely acute sense of politics, perhaps because he perceived himself as an outside aspirer.

    Plenty worse flaws than that.
    His flaw was being dishonest. Twice. And on both occasions when caught out, he maintained he had done nothing wrong.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/3130348/The-scandals-that-brought-Peter-Mandelson-down-twice-before.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,749
    shadsy said:

    Pong said:

    shadsy said:

    I think it's a bit unfair to characterise US Primary polling as "dodgy". It's true some have very low sample sizes. (294 in this national Republican one http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/zogby-internet-23562)

    Still, even with bigger sample sizes you'd get much bigger variance than you would in a poll which is asking people to identify with a particular party, because in many cases voters can easily see themselves picking a number of candidates and switching requires very little effort.

    IIRC, you could have got 100/1 about Clinton on the day of the 2008 NH Primary. Some accounts of the campaign relate that Obama's team had a bad feeling on the day, but that was never reflected in the betting markets.

    What do you make of the Bloomberg saga?

    His price seems to yoyo, largely in response to media coverage.

    Would you back him yourself?
    Having got Corbyn and Trump disastrously wrong, I'm a bit wary of writing Bloomberg off totally. I suppose if it's Trump v Sanders, he's got a shot; hard to think of a better scenario for a third party bid. I haven't backed him.
    Even the very shrewdest PBers have gotten Trump disastrously wrong.

    However, only the heir to the throne of the Kingdom of Idiots would still keep on laying Trump at this point.

    Pulpstar called it the Glencore strategy, the rest of you can call me Your Majesty
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And millionaire virtue signallers, luvvies and class warriors.

    I'm not sure that's a winning formula :wink:
    AndyJS said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    Pretty sobering stuff for Labour, with the party being described as the party for "down and outs".
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited 2016 25
    ''Anything Trump has achieved in business, Bloomberg is better. Anything Trump has achieved in politics, Bloomberg is better.''

    True but what ticket is Bloomberg going to run on?? Making America stay the same???

    Like them or hate them, its Trump's policies that make him popular.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    MarqueeMark said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "For Scottish voters, Labour is indistinguishable from the Conservatives - just less competent"

    There's no coming back from that....
    There may be. At some point, the sun will stop shining out of the SNP's rear end. When that happens, voters will look for another party. The Conservatives remain actively disliked by too many and the Lib Dems are virtually extinguished north of the border beyond tiny enclaves (well, massive but essentially unpeopled enclaves). Labour remains an option by default unless some other party can fill the 'alternative government' void.

    I still think that the Scottish Tories should be given independence from the UK party and rebrand. It might make little difference in the short term but may increase the number of voters prepared to give them a hearing as time goes on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    taffys said:

    ''Anything Trump has achieved in business, Bloomberg is better. Anything Trump has achieved in politics, Bloomberg is better.''

    True but what ticket is Bloomberg going to run on?? Making America stay the same???

    Making America Better Than Trump Would....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html

    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
    There is also another good piece from Nicholas Soames and Frank Field in today's Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12115521/This-open-door-immigration-policy-cant-go-on.html

    Cameron's complete and abject failure to get a grip on immigration, despite his promises, is damaging to the fabric of the nation, even if, through the absence of any real alternatives, it is not hurting the Conservative Party's re-election chances.

    When people from apparent opposite sides of the political spectrum such as Soames and Field are in accord then there really is a problem that needs to be addressed with actions and not just words.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited 2016 25
    AndyJS said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    Pretty sobering stuff for Labour, with the party being described as the party for "down and outs".
    Beckett could have been describing the front bench with that comment. – Spot on though with calling Ed, "a weak and bumbling leader"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    There were a lot of people that spent a great deal of time and effort in getting the Northern Ireland deal done. A lot of it was very much behind the scenes and away from the public eye. Everyone involved was committed to seeing it through, even with the change of government in 1997, and it is to the credit of all the actors that the deal was done.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That made me LOL, just an oh fuck brand value.
    MarqueeMark said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hohoho

    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-25/revealed-secret-labour-report-published-in-full/

    "For Scottish voters, Labour is indistinguishable from the Conservatives - just less competent"

    There's no coming back from that....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    On the topic of the US election - spot the difference competition, 2016 style.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/12118376/Tina-Fey-reprises-her-Sarah-Palin-impression-for-Saturday-Night-Live.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    taffys said:

    What do you make of the Bloomberg saga?

    Bloomberg feels like the establishment candidate in the most anti establishment period in decades.

    Agreed. If he runs against Hillary, he may well hand the election to Trump (or Cruz or whoever the GOP put up). If he's running against Sanders then the GOP will win anyway.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,284
    watford30 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    His flaw was wanting to lord it around, live in Notting Hill and be the centre of attention and hold "brilliant" soirees.

    He had a hugely acute sense of politics, perhaps because he perceived himself as an outside aspirer.

    Plenty worse flaws than that.
    His flaw was being dishonest. Twice. And on both occasions when caught out, he maintained he had done nothing wrong.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/3130348/The-scandals-that-brought-Peter-Mandelson-down-twice-before.html
    ah yes. Oops had forgotten that.

    You see his political brilliance...made me forget all about his dishonesty (twice) and made me reinvent him as a poor little boy wanting to better himself (in Notting Hill Gate, albeit).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Casino_Royale said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is

    I hate those sort of people - it's exceptionally rude.
    It is. Good for climbing greasy polls as long as what you have to say is valuable though, I should imagine. Not something I could do myself.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2016 25
    O/T, local elections — good example of how tough this year's elections will be for Labour. In Reading, Labour are defending 11 out of 16 wards:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2012/93/
    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2012/93/
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2016 25
    I totally agree. I saw a report at the weekend, where tourists in Central London wondered where the Brits were. Can honestly say I can't recall being served in a bar, restaurant or hotel by someone British in years.
    HurstLlama said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html

    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
    There is also another good piece from Nicholas Soames and Frank Field in today's Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12115521/This-open-door-immigration-policy-cant-go-on.html

    Cameron's complete and abject failure to get a grip on immigration, despite his promises, is damaging to the fabric of the nation, even if, through the absence of any real alternatives, it is not hurting the Conservative Party's re-election chances.

    When people from apparent opposite sides of the political spectrum such as Soames and Field are in accord then there really is a problem that needs to be addressed with actions and not just words.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Until they are tested in real votes, it's hard to tell to what extent polling numbers are the expression of enthusiasm by the public or a measure of who can get voters to come out and vote. This is especially the case in wide fields among voter bases of uncertain sizes and doubtful past voting patterns. So backing short priced candidates is always dangerous in early races.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''O/T, local elections — good example of how tough this year's elections will be for Labour. In Reading, Labour are defending 11 out of 16 wards:''

    OMFG imagine being a labour canvasser there....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    NH is particularly hard to poll because independents can take part in either the GOP or Dem primary, but not both. So if you ask someone about (say) Hillary vs Sanders, even if you correctly weght for likelihood to vote, you can't easily tell whether they'll vote in that contest or the other contest.

    Iowa is of course also very difficult to poll, for different reasons. Few people were expecting Santorum to do so well last time.

    The likelihood is that there will be one or more surprises, so betting at very short odds is a particularly risky game here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    taffys said:

    ''Anything Trump has achieved in business, Bloomberg is better. Anything Trump has achieved in politics, Bloomberg is better.''

    True but what ticket is Bloomberg going to run on?? Making America stay the same???

    Like them or hate them, its Trump's policies that make him popular.

    Economy, wealth creation, aspiration. Core GOP values.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:

    US polls are really dodgy suck - we keep getting wildly different results taken from the same state on the same day, on samples like 300. It's a good point, but momentum seems to matter a lot in NH, and it looks as though the force is with Bernie there.

    FPT:
    Charles said:


    Carson was not an idiot. He trusted Craig. That was a rookie error - the old rule is 'never turn your back on an Ulster Unionist'

    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    There were a lot of people that spent a great deal of time and effort in getting the Northern Ireland deal done. A lot of it was very much behind the scenes and away from the public eye. Everyone involved was committed to seeing it through, even with the change of government in 1997, and it is to the credit of all the actors that the deal was done.
    Oh agreed. But my point was specifically in relation to the help the Omagh families got from him re legal aid and other support so that they could take legal action against the people they held responsible. None of this was related to the peace process. From what I have learnt, he provided a lot of help on a personal level even when he no longer played any political role in the province, that this was much appreciated by the bereaved families and it reflects well on Mandelson that he did so and did not seek any glory for himself in doing what he did.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    taffys said:

    ''O/T, local elections — good example of how tough this year's elections will be for Labour. In Reading, Labour are defending 11 out of 16 wards:''

    OMFG imagine being a labour canvasser there....

    Desperately trying to keep the conversation to bin collections and potholes I would have thought.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    FPT -

    someone mentioned that there are 'moderates in both parties' - after 7 years of Obama the Democrats have moved so far left that moderates are hard to find. The fact that a self-confessed socialist is running under their banner, and the crowds and excitement he generates compared to Clinton's smaller crowds and distinct lack of excitement, tells you all you need to know. That would have been inconceivable in 2008 - one reason that Obama ran with hardly any policies at all other than 'hope and change'. If he'd said how he wanted to change the country he very possibly would not have won. Over 75% of the country thinks Obama is leading it in the wrong direction.

    The Republicans have realized that they need to pivot to get more women, blacks and hispanics to vote for them. This year will tell us how far they have succeeded.

    The whole 'Trump as right winger thing' puzzles me somewhat. He wants to build a wall - it's popular. He wants limit muslim immigration temporarily until the government figures out what the hell is going on. It's popular, but also unconstitutional. if he changed it to Syrians it'd be a home run.

    Looking at his record he's been on both sides of most issues over the years, so it's hard to tell just how 'conservative' or not he genuinely is.

    Trump went to the Wharton School at Penn. He is a very smart, very intelligent man. Do not underestimate him. He could easily monster Bloomberg on a debate stage. Bloomberg is a BIG nanny state fan, and Trump will have much material.

    The right winger is not Trump, but Cruz.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    shadsy said:

    I think it's a bit unfair to characterise US Primary polling as "dodgy". It's true some have very low sample sizes. (294 in this national Republican one http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/zogby-internet-23562)

    Still, even with bigger sample sizes you'd get much bigger variance than you would in a poll which is asking people to identify with a particular party, because in many cases voters can easily see themselves picking a number of candidates and switching requires very little effort.

    IIRC, you could have got 100/1 about Clinton on the day of the 2008 NH Primary. Some accounts of the campaign relate that Obama's team had a bad feeling on the day, but that was never reflected in the betting markets.

    Weighting for the US primaries must be a nightmare. There's so little precedent to go on. Engagement varies so much from cycle to cycle depending on who's running, what condition the race is in by the time it reaches the relevant state (though not applicable in NH), what's going on in the other party (particularly in open primaries), how caucus dynamics will play out, and whether there's differential enthusiasm between supporters of different candidate, never mind all the usual weighting problems with contacting voters and so on. And each state is potentially different.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Economy, wealth creation, aspiration. Core GOP values.

    Maybe. I suspect many Americans have heard that before from the GOP. The only people who seem to win are GOP insiders.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2016 25
    My £2 on Bloomberg for Prez at 514.8 is not looking like the worst bet in my portfolio!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Although — let's be honest — the level of service has improved considerably where Eastern Europeans have replaced British people.
    Plato_Says said:

    I totally agree. I saw a report at the weekend, where tourists in Central London wondered where the Brits were. Can honestly say I can't recall being served in a bar, restaurant or hotel by someone British in years.

    HurstLlama said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html

    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
    There is also another good piece from Nicholas Soames and Frank Field in today's Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12115521/This-open-door-immigration-policy-cant-go-on.html

    Cameron's complete and abject failure to get a grip on immigration, despite his promises, is damaging to the fabric of the nation, even if, through the absence of any real alternatives, it is not hurting the Conservative Party's re-election chances.

    When people from apparent opposite sides of the political spectrum such as Soames and Field are in accord then there really is a problem that needs to be addressed with actions and not just words.


  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,029
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    My £2 on Bloomberg for Prez at 514.8 is not looking like the worst bet in my portfolio!

    The trick there is knowing when to cash out. Same if anyone backed Biden at the triple-digit odds that were available a while ago.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    The Tories will be heartened by Labour's focus group research on the NHS. A lot of support for taking on medics resisting a full 7-day service.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited 2016 25
    CNN is pushing the Fox News poll hard showing Trump with an 11 point lead in Iowa.

    Could it be because CNN is hosting a Democratic Town Hall meeting tonight?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    Tim_B said:

    FPT -

    someone mentioned that there are 'moderates in both parties' - after 7 years of Obama the Democrats have moved so far left that moderates are hard to find. The fact that a self-confessed socialist is running under their banner, and the crowds and excitement he generates compared to Clinton's smaller crowds and distinct lack of excitement, tells you all you need to know. That would have been inconceivable in 2008 - one reason that Obama ran with hardly any policies at all other than 'hope and change'. If he'd said how he wanted to change the country he very possibly would not have won. Over 75% of the country thinks Obama is leading it in the wrong direction.

    The Republicans have realized that they need to pivot to get more women, blacks and hispanics to vote for them. This year will tell us how far they have succeeded.

    The whole 'Trump as right winger thing' puzzles me somewhat. He wants to build a wall - it's popular. He wants limit muslim immigration temporarily until the government figures out what the hell is going on. It's popular, but also unconstitutional. if he changed it to Syrians it'd be a home run.

    Looking at his record he's been on both sides of most issues over the years, so it's hard to tell just how 'conservative' or not he genuinely is.

    Trump went to the Wharton School at Penn. He is a very smart, very intelligent man. Do not underestimate him. He could easily monster Bloomberg on a debate stage. Bloomberg is a BIG nanny state fan, and Trump will have much material.

    The right winger is not Trump, but Cruz.

    Trump is the anti-establishment candidate, Cruz is the very right wing conservative choice. Jeb isn't even the establishment 1st choice any more. Poor Jeb.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    edited 2016 25
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    NickPalmer said:


    FPT:
    Charles said:
    I remember when Peter Mandelson was N Ireland secretary and a major breakthrough in the peace process was imminent. It was coming up for May with local elections across Britain, and I asked him why the Government wasn't making more of the progress in public, as an example of our competence in getting tangible results. He said sombrely, "In Northern Irish politics, you can never be sure you've got a deal until you've actually got it. We can't risk spoiling the chance by premature celebrations."

    Mandelson is famous as a cunning fixer and not the most likeable of men (one of those people who looks round as he talks to you to see if there's someone else who is higher priority, and walks off in mid-sentence if there is), but I always thought his streak of idealism deserved a bit of credit that it never got. When we were arguing about part-privatisation of Royal Mail, if remember him saying "Yes, it's not popular, but it'll make the service more efficient while keep in public control, so it's the right thing to do - that should still count for something, don't you think?" To some extent he was playing his audience - it's the sort of argument that works for me - but he clearly meant it as well.

    Mandelson deserves some considerable credit for the work he did behind the scenes - even after he stopped being NI Secretary - to help the families in Omagh after the terrible bombing there. He never sought any public credit for it but did a great deal to help them. A worthy deed IMO.
    There were a lot of people that spent a great deal of time and effort in getting the Northern Ireland deal done. A lot of it was very much behind the scenes and away from the public eye. Everyone involved was committed to seeing it through, even with the change of government in 1997, and it is to the credit of all the actors that the deal was done.
    Oh agreed. But my point was specifically in relation to the help the Omagh families got from him re legal aid and other support so that they could take legal action against the people they held responsible. None of this was related to the peace process. From what I have learnt, he provided a lot of help on a personal level even when he no longer played any political role in the province, that this was much appreciated by the bereaved families and it reflects well on Mandelson that he did so and did not seek any glory for himself in doing what he did.
    Very interesting. There's undoubtedly a really good book to be written of everything that happened in 1990s Northern Ireland, but probably not until most of those involved have passed on.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories will be heartened by Labour's focus group research on the NHS. A lot of support for taking on medics resisting a full 7-day service.

    Yep. Labour shills getting it so very wrong. Again.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    My £2 on Bloomberg for Prez at 514.8 is not looking like the worst bet in my portfolio!

    The trick there is knowing when to cash out. Same if anyone backed Biden at the triple-digit odds that were available a while ago.
    I backed Biden at over 800/1. I have partially laid off at around 100/1, but I'm going to keep a big green on Biden - just in case.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pulpstar said:

    Tim_B said:

    FPT -

    someone mentioned that there are 'moderates in both parties' - after 7 years of Obama the Democrats have moved so far left that moderates are hard to find. The fact that a self-confessed socialist is running under their banner, and the crowds and excitement he generates compared to Clinton's smaller crowds and distinct lack of excitement, tells you all you need to know. That would have been inconceivable in 2008 - one reason that Obama ran with hardly any policies at all other than 'hope and change'. If he'd said how he wanted to change the country he very possibly would not have won. Over 75% of the country thinks Obama is leading it in the wrong direction.

    The Republicans have realized that they need to pivot to get more women, blacks and hispanics to vote for them. This year will tell us how far they have succeeded.

    The whole 'Trump as right winger thing' puzzles me somewhat. He wants to build a wall - it's popular. He wants limit muslim immigration temporarily until the government figures out what the hell is going on. It's popular, but also unconstitutional. if he changed it to Syrians it'd be a home run.

    Looking at his record he's been on both sides of most issues over the years, so it's hard to tell just how 'conservative' or not he genuinely is.

    Trump went to the Wharton School at Penn. He is a very smart, very intelligent man. Do not underestimate him. He could easily monster Bloomberg on a debate stage. Bloomberg is a BIG nanny state fan, and Trump will have much material.

    The right winger is not Trump, but Cruz.

    Trump is the anti-establishment candidate, Cruz is the very right wing conservative choice. Jeb isn't even the establishment 1st choice any more. Poor Jeb.
    Jeb is running anti-Rubio ads here.

    Sanders said he would not run negative ads about Clinton - but is getting ever closer to the line.

    NOBODY is running anti-Trump ads. Almost unprecedented for the front-runner to be not attacked.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Although — let's be honest — the level of service has improved considerably where Eastern Europeans have replaced British people.

    Plato_Says said:

    I totally agree. I saw a report at the weekend, where tourists in Central London wondered where the Brits were. Can honestly say I can't recall being served in a bar, restaurant or hotel by someone British in years.

    HurstLlama said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html

    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
    There is also another good piece from Nicholas Soames and Frank Field in today's Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12115521/This-open-door-immigration-policy-cant-go-on.html

    Cameron's complete and abject failure to get a grip on immigration, despite his promises, is damaging to the fabric of the nation, even if, through the absence of any real alternatives, it is not hurting the Conservative Party's re-election chances.

    When people from apparent opposite sides of the political spectrum such as Soames and Field are in accord then there really is a problem that needs to be addressed with actions and not just words.


    The last time I went for dim sum in Chinatown, two of the waiters pushing trolleys were young English teenage boys. We reflected that the younger generation of Chinese presumably preferred to go to university than work in a restaurant.

    These two waiters were enthusiastic at their jobs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    MarqueeMark said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Tories will be heartened by Labour's focus group research on the NHS. A lot of support for taking on medics resisting a full 7-day service.

    Yep. Labour shills getting it so very wrong. Again.
    What amazes me is that they didn't do this research before the election. I find most of the stuff in there quite obvious, but obviously to the ivory tower mob in the Labour party these are the answers they didn't want to hear so they got the likes of Axelrod to feed them answers they did want to hear, at great expense no less.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?

    Both Cruz and Sanders have looked like excellent debaters. Not sure who wins, but it would be tough for Bloomberg - it gives him a wide sea of centre ground (In US terms) to work in politically though.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    For education bods here

    @tobyblume @ObliviousReaper @PlatoSays Here's our 2015 report on this: https://t.co/jmKXHfXi0P Some EAL kids do poorly (eg outside London!)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,354
    Trump will help Hillary in the same way that the Tories were helped by Salmond. It gives the message loud and clear to the party: this is not a time to muck about or be indulgent.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?

    Be careful what you wish for!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    AndyJS said:

    Although — let's be honest — the level of service has improved considerably where Eastern Europeans have replaced British people.

    Plato_Says said:

    I totally agree. I saw a report at the weekend, where tourists in Central London wondered where the Brits were. Can honestly say I can't recall being served in a bar, restaurant or hotel by someone British in years.

    HurstLlama said:

    Plato_Says said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12119288/Jeremy-Corbyns-Calais-migrant-plea-will-isolate-him-further.html

    Labour voters are similarly sceptical, with 61 per cent of those who backed Mr Corbyn's party in 2015 feeling that Britain shouldn't welcome any of the migrants camping near Calais.

    The motivation these migrants have for coming to Britain is viewed with suspicion. Most of the Britons polled (76 per cent) say that asylum seekers want to come to Britain as they believe it has "more generous welfare benefits". That means the Labour leader is casting himself as an ally of people few think deserve to come to the country.
    There is also another good piece from Nicholas Soames and Frank Field in today's Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12115521/This-open-door-immigration-policy-cant-go-on.html

    Cameron's complete and abject failure to get a grip on immigration, despite his promises, is damaging to the fabric of the nation, even if, through the absence of any real alternatives, it is not hurting the Conservative Party's re-election chances.

    When people from apparent opposite sides of the political spectrum such as Soames and Field are in accord then there really is a problem that needs to be addressed with actions and not just words.


    Nah, I get served by English bar staff all the time in Camden. I don't think the situation in the service/hospitality industry is as lamentable as people make out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    Tim_B said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?

    Be careful what you wish for!
    Big profits on the race :D ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato_Says said:

    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.

    @MediaGuido: Guardian company meeting split into two parts - one at 11am, second at 2pm - because they have so many staff https://t.co/3IS4eLyXTA
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    Yeah, that's why I think the best strategy for them is to try and get to a 350 lead, or perhaps 200 as soon as possible.

    It's tricky for AB.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited 2016 25
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?

    Both Cruz and Sanders have looked like excellent debaters. Not sure who wins, but it would be tough for Bloomberg - it gives him a wide sea of centre ground (In US terms) to work in politically though.
    Sanders is a great stump speaker, but Cruz is far and away the superior debater. He was on the Princeton debate team and went to Harvard Law. He was a Supreme Court clerk.

    Bloomberg is arguably more liberal than Hillary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    edited 2016 25
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    If it might rain tomorrow they need to add a quick 50 to the score and put England in before tea.

    Otherwise my laying of the draw is going to be expensive!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    When I held two staff meetings to discuss redundancy, one lot were staying. I did a lot of these.
    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.

    @MediaGuido: Guardian company meeting split into two parts - one at 11am, second at 2pm - because they have so many staff https://t.co/3IS4eLyXTA
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    Wasn’t it thunderstorms today as well? And earlier in the match?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited 2016 25
    Pulpstar said:

    Tim_B said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What about a Sanders, Cruz, Bloomberg contest?

    Be careful what you wish for!
    Big profits on the race :D ?
    I don't bet - although my German Shepherd Heidi does prognosticate on occasion ;)

    I have bet 3 times in my life and won all 3 - figured it was time to stop.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    Plato_Says said:

    Frit 3x in a row

    Kevin Schofield
    Jeremy Corbyn won't be attending the weekly PLP meeting tonight, I'm told.

    The idea that the weekly PLP meeting is a regular chance for MPs to fence with the leader is simply wrong: that isn't how the meeting works. It's normally a briefing by one shadow minister on their area, without other members of the Shadow Cabinet present. Otherwise, every discussion on every subject would get sidetracked into a general policy discussion. Tony and Gordon would normally come to a PLP meeting a few times a year to give an overall view.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Penny Red is delusional
    "Today, gender-neutral pronouns like “they” and “xe” are gradually slipping into common use"
    Only in Guardianland.
    https://t.co/wHgCqGZCgm
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato_Says said:

    When I held two staff meetings to discuss redundancy, one lot were staying. I did a lot of these.

    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.

    @MediaGuido: Guardian company meeting split into two parts - one at 11am, second at 2pm - because they have so many staff https://t.co/3IS4eLyXTA
    That was my immediate assumption as well!

    Fortunately I've never had to sack a lot of people. They are pretty horrible conversations to have
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Someone should lock him in a cupboard

    Alex Wickham
    Stuart Rose tries to remember the name of his own campaign group (h/t @DMcCaffreySKY) https://t.co/IpnBOPfTiD https://t.co/PN5yTUwVNR
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,754
    edited 2016 25
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    If it might rain tomorrow they need to add a quick 50 to the score and put England in before tea.

    Otherwise my laying of the draw is going to be expensive!
    Not looking at Betfair right now but I'm guessing it is shorter than an England win. By some distance...

    The other issue is that SA are a bowler down, so they won't want so many potential overs left and will want England in as late as possible - I dunno, personally I'd declare at tea or 350 lead if I was AB whichever comes first.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Charles said:

    Plato_Says said:

    When I held two staff meetings to discuss redundancy, one lot were staying. I did a lot of these.

    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.

    @MediaGuido: Guardian company meeting split into two parts - one at 11am, second at 2pm - because they have so many staff https://t.co/3IS4eLyXTA
    That was my immediate assumption as well!

    Fortunately I've never had to sack a lot of people. They are pretty horrible conversations to have
    Firing someone for cause is easy, so long as you have your facts and documentation straight.

    The worst thing of all is having to do layoffs. That is simply awful.

    Firing someone in France is an adventure of exploration, frustration, danger and excitement
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    NickPalmer said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Frit 3x in a row

    Kevin Schofield
    Jeremy Corbyn won't be attending the weekly PLP meeting tonight, I'm told.

    The idea that the weekly PLP meeting is a regular chance for MPs to fence with the leader is simply wrong: that isn't how the meeting works. It's normally a briefing by one shadow minister on their area, without other members of the Shadow Cabinet present. Otherwise, every discussion on every subject would get sidetracked into a general policy discussion. Tony and Gordon would normally come to a PLP meeting a few times a year to give an overall view.
    Useful background, thanks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tim_B said:

    Charles said:

    Plato_Says said:

    When I held two staff meetings to discuss redundancy, one lot were staying. I did a lot of these.

    Scott_P said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Beth Rigby
    #Guardian. 2012 @arusbridger announces he has to cut 70-100 jobs to stem losses. Three years to March 2016, Guardian hires 479 staff.

    @MediaGuido: Guardian company meeting split into two parts - one at 11am, second at 2pm - because they have so many staff https://t.co/3IS4eLyXTA
    That was my immediate assumption as well!

    Fortunately I've never had to sack a lot of people. They are pretty horrible conversations to have
    Firing someone for cause is easy, so long as you have your facts and documentation straight.

    The worst thing of all is having to do layoffs. That is simply awful.

    Firing someone in France is an adventure of exploration, frustration, danger and excitement
    I was chatting to someone the other day who has closed down 3 factories in France over the years (for 3 different companies)

    The last time he was summoned for a personal conversation with the Minister of Labour...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    Plato_Says said:

    Penny Red is delusional

    "Today, gender-neutral pronouns like “they” and “xe” are gradually slipping into common use"
    Only in Guardianland.
    https://t.co/wHgCqGZCgm
    Lol, I bet she doesn't realise that the origin of Xe and Xyr are a 4chan joke based on Final Fantasy. These people are delusional.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,925
    edited 2016 25
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    If it might rain tomorrow they need to add a quick 50 to the score and put England in before tea.

    Otherwise my laying of the draw is going to be expensive!
    Not looking at Betfair right now but I'm guessing it is shorter than an England win. By some distance...

    The other issue is that SA are a bowler down, so they won't want so many potential overs left and will want England in as late as possible - I dunno, personally I'd declare at tea or 350 lead if I was AB whichever comes first.
    Yep. The draw is 2.8 now, England are out to 14 with SA at 1.73 (all back prices, tiny spreads)

    The lead is 299, I'd say that 350 was a fair lead to declare As you say they don't want to be bowling longer than they have to, but against that they'd love to get a win here.

    My only bet so far is a lay-the-draw £60 at 4.2 from the second day. I might put a half-stake on England now and wait for the SA price to go above evens at some point.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,016
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    This test match situation has developed not necessarily to England's advantage.

    Declaration at tea methinks. Or a couple of overs before.
    Have South Africa seen the weather forecast for tomorrow? Thunderstorms are a possibility.
    If it might rain tomorrow they need to add a quick 50 to the score and put England in before tea.

    Otherwise my laying of the draw is going to be expensive!
    Not looking at Betfair right now but I'm guessing it is shorter than an England win. By some distance...

    The other issue is that SA are a bowler down, so they won't want so many potential overs left and will want England in as late as possible - I dunno, personally I'd declare at tea or 350 lead if I was AB whichever comes first.
    Looking at Accuweather, the forecast today, tonight and tomorrow is that there’s a thunderstormn about. No more than that. Might or might not.
    I suspect AB’s problem is Abbott. If he’s fit to bowl, OK, otherwise there’s going to be work for the second rank bowlers
    Although Duminy gotb a wicket yesterday!
This discussion has been closed.