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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for the next leadership contest
Last Saturday at the annual Fabian Conference the headline speaker was Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. However one of the more interesting debates at the event was Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer speaking alongside each other. There’s a high chance that one of those three will be the next leader of the Labour Party and the Fabians knew it.
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Its not just Polish route to just say no. France did it with deficit limits. Denmark did it with border control. Germany did it with no bailouts law. I really wonder whether we should just stay in EU and ignore laws we dislike like everyone else.
'she grew up in Manchester in the 1980s, in what she describes as a "very angry time" when it was "impossible not to be political." '
But Nandy is 36. So in the 1980s she was aged under 11. Was she really aware of the angry times and was already becoming political? I have doubts.
For a right winger to become leader, the membership will need to repent of its enthusiasm for the purity Labour. I can't see that happening before Corbynism has been tested to destruction. It's entirely possible that many of the leading figures on the right of the party might no longer be in the Labour party in 18 months' time.
Is Corbyn just interested in changing the Labour Party and then going? In which case I can't see him wanting to hand over to anyone on the right or soft-left.
I am on Nandy.
I thought Jarvis was too centrist for the membership but I may need to think again.
More great work from @caprosser & @jon_mellon - more evidence Lib-Lab switchers oversampled https://t.co/dyrP3pLRcg https://t.co/OJenAgpsaL
I saw this earlier today. I try not to get too paranoid about these things, but I do feel a bit uneasy about the Berlin trip. Didn't have any concerns about it at the time of booking, well before the summer holidays. I guess a lot has happened since then.
Dan Jarvis looks even worse value to me. Yes, he would kill one of the most effective criticisms of Labour under its current leader, but it's hard to imagine the circumstances where the party would want to follow him soon enough for him to be next leader.
And on an exit by Corbyn in 2017 at 5/1, I fear that the wish is father to the thought.
You’ve just described 99% of the adult population! – Cheers Henry G, good to see you back.
The whole set-up isn't geared enough towards mildly interested people who vote and who hold down full time jobs in the private sector - basically, the majority of the voting population.
I wonder how safe their seats are.
Corbyn exit 2020 has always looked the value to me on his exit date. He'll go into the next election. And lose. It's what Labour leaders do.
e.g. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/
In betting terms, that means that if you bet on anyone, you're probably lending your money to the bookies for a longish time.
Another theory (the Con theory) is that the VI should be asked at the end of a "thought process" that most people go through when they are at the ballot box rather than it being the first question in a poll. That method is said to have produced highly accurate results for private Con polling carried out by ICM.
I've just looked her up on Wikipedia: she grew up in a very political household, it would appear - her grandfather had been an MP. I suppose this would make her rather more aware of politics happening than the average Mancunian child. Her Wikipedia entry is pretty scanty - I want to know whereabouts in Manchester she grew up, what school she went to, etc. Just 'Manchester' allows me to make no sweeping generalisations about her background!
e.g. If Henry makes Nandy 7-2, then getting her at longer at 6-1 now should still represent value.
"Plenty of gags on the Caine theme today. Like to see one with a shot of him in Zulu and the caption 'Syrians! thersands of em!'"
It would be a pretty pointless gag given that Caine has not mentioned immigration as being any part of his opposition to the EU. All his points were about bureaucracy, cost and self determination.
@JohnRentoul · 9m9 minutes ago
And @PCollinsTimes is allowed to say this too £ http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4671343.ece …
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZVHQH8WAAAP5--.png
Indeed, He also did not say
'Stop throwin' those bloody spears...at me.'
It seems brave to me to bet more than small sums on this.
King Cole, glad to hear it.
There is a growing group of people who deeply distrust giving out details/interacting online - through a genuine dislike of the aggregation of personal data. Trying to poll such people is a very hard task.
When you consider that they are teaching children at Primary school not to give out "personal information" over the phone or online - this is going to grow, going forward.
The last line is interesting - we know that private polling for both Labour and Conservatives was much more accurate. I haven't seen the details of the methodologies used.
Could we please have an article on that?
To come from nowhere to win you need to be something utterly special, like Obama or Trudeau.
Neither Jarvis, Nandy or Starmer have done anything remarkable yet. Jarvis is vaguely telegenic and has a good backstory. Nandy seems to be solid. And Starmer has the right name. That's it.
We are a million miles away from Blair or Wilson. And not even close to Kinnock, Smith, Brown or even - dare I say it - even EdM.
Chuck in the peeking nuclear paranoia as the Cold War came to a head and you've got a pretty febrile atmosphere that makes it's way down to even primary school aged children.
The fall of the Berlin Wall was the most magical thing in the world and is still the biggest and most defining event in my life (edging out 9/11) it showed me that things could change. People, ordinary people, could make a difference. For me it marks an end for that period of life.
On private polling, it's just what I've heard about the Tory method, the trouble with private polling is that it's private and the Tories/ICM aren't going to be willing to reveal how they got such accurate results.
£5,400 but hadn't filed accounts properly to Electoral Commission?
https://twitter.com/ElectoralCommUK/status/690544262241460224
http://www.totalpolitics.com/print/161892/whats-left-of-the-labour-left.thtml
Debate has focused on finding a convincing A.N. Other. But to convince the membership, it needs to be A.N. Other with a coherent narrative and some attractive objectives. I actually suspect that this is healthy for the centre-left, who were lazily getting into the habit of thinking that they didn't really need to think, just produce some slogans and focus group-cleared isolated policies and win every second election.
http://www.moleanos.com/recommended-use
It's easy for seven year-olds to hate; life is so much simpler then. It's one reason that religions are so keen to catch them young.
"My Dad ran a small business" (true - but may be considered misleading)
"Grew up on a farm" (an amenity farm)
I could have fun with this.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/land-of-opportunity-its-better-to-be-poor-in-england-than-in-scotland/
I do think now that within the membership there are many more purists who are much happier in opposition, and are satisfied solely with turning the Labour party into the image of it's leader which is just dandy for them, but meanwhile the Tories go on their merry way and do as they like.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-betting-data-alone-cant-identify-match-fixers-in-tennis/
By the way thanks for your reply on the other thread about your family's involvement out East during the 19th century. I should dearly love to get my hands your family archives, there are more books to be written from that one source than you could shake a stick at.
https://dipaknandycomments.wordpress.com/about/
But at school, it wasn't a hot topic. Being atomised in a nuclear blast came second to England losing at football.
I suspect Jezza was mouthing party slogans in his nappies, and our Nick was crusading against sugar still being on ration but that's not normal.
That my parents became, respectively, a refractories engineer and a senior buyer is by the by...
It wasn't normal, as you say. That said, generalised angst about the state of the world, nuclear war and so on was pretty common in my international school, and Nixon vs Kennedy was hotly debated among the American kids when I was 10. Today's kids talk to their parents less, I think.
Not convicted of any sex crimes.
Of course remembering events is one thing - very different to having any real understanding of the issues at the time!
Labour in trouble again!! This time the Edstone that wonderful gift that keeps on giving...... and this lot thought they could run the country. What a bunch?
Labour is to be investigated by the Electoral Commission over two receipts relating to the party's so-called 'EdStone'.
During the 2015 election campaign, former party leader Ed Miliband unveiled a limestone slab inscribed with six of his pledges and claimed it could be installed in the Downing Street garden should he be elected Prime Minister. It means the party could end up spending even more on Ed Miliband’s £8,000 limestone plinth if a fine is imposed.
The party failed to include invoices for the 8ft 6 plinth and according to the published receipts the much-mocked monument cost the party £8,000, including £180 for twelve week's storage, £1,575 for haulage costs and £270 to have a mason in attendance.
http://news.sky.com/story/1627914/labour-to-be-investigated-over-edstone