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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says the EU Referendum campaign could already be over with REMAIN the victors
The EU referendum campaign may well already be over with Remain having won. In many ways, that shouldn’t be the case. Europe hardly presents a picture of radiant success on a practical level, while the idea of a common European home is laughable when states are re-erecting borders against each other.
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Whatever that might turn out to be?
Online polls would suggest there’s all to play for - phone polls alone however, the game is already lost. - Which is the likeliest to be most accurate?
It's not personality that's holding back Leave, it's lack of a credible narrative about what happens next. Would the EU go on trading with us on our terms? How would our relationship with the rest of the English-speaking world evolve? Is it enough for Remain to win by one vote, or does it need to win in shire England as well as in London, Scotland and Wales? Isn't the timing of the referendum a reflection of the needs of the governing Party (as it was in 1975) rather than of the national interest?
My heart says Leave, my head says Remain. I believe that almost all the undecided split that way, rather than the reverse. And that's why Leave has to answer the questions I pose in the previous paragraph. It is probably true, as DH suggests, that Leave cannot find an intellectually credible spokesperson to answer them - but the Leavers on this board can't do that either. They are more interested in feeling good about themselves than they are in persuasion.
I think that's where 'Remain' have an advantage - they recognise the EU is far from perfect - and don't share the absolute moral certitude of Leave - despite the fact Leave are the ones without the plan......
They are going to have to do a lot, lot better than Chris Grayling. His continued presence in the Cabinet is a puzzle, to say the least.
From a Labour petspective, having a good, prominent and successful Remain or Leave campaign could work wonders for an MP with half an eye on replacing Jezza.
And don't blame UKIP for dominating the Leave campaign if you won't stand up and be counted.
As I said on here yesterday the vote is looking like being a lot closer than anybody could have anticipated, events out of anybody's control will play a big part as usual. My own view is the PM will delay as long as possible, if (it's a very big if) he "loses' he's toast, I can't see him risking that anytime soon.
I don't think that he could be more than a caretaker leader though. He might be good for a short term.
I'm currently reading Cameron at 10 by Anthony Seldon and Peter Snowdon and what I hadn't realised is that the Lib Dems had assumed the Tories would stay out of the AV referendum. But as polling day approached the Tories felt they couldn't take the risk of Yes winning and so they got involved. I wonder if the Tories had hoped that they could stay out of it for the sake of maintaining good relations with the Lib Dems?
I think there is something similar going on with the Remain campaign. I suspect it's all over. I suspect that Remain has already won. But can the Tories - and Cameron in particular - take the risk and not campaign vigorously? Probably not. So while it should be a comfortable win for Remain, the question is, at what will the cost of victory be?
Hannan might have been a good option, but given the views he has expressed on other subjects - such as the NHS - he might end up getting Clegged. Leave has to find a way of not being seen as an issue supported and advocated primarily by right wingers - Tory or UKIP.
Us and the EC.
Hannan is intelligent but charmless and I do not think that he has much experience organising a campaign. He is too much of a lone wolf, and one with a libertarian streak that does not match British politics. If he found God and a birth certificate acceptable to Mr Crosby he would be a good candidate for POTUS!
http://www.espn.co.uk/soccer/barclays-premier-league/23/blog/post/2787039/leicester-dont-need-luck-in-race-for-champions-league-places
Still 1.7 at Betfair
One reason for Leicester (and Watfords) success lies in the injury table. Leicester is second behind Watford. We have a great medical team at Leicester. Those in the European contests are well down the injury table. European football restarts soon too, while Vardy is fully fit again.
How will Leicester do in the CL? Probably not do very well, but it will be fun.
Sean F is right that Remain supporters don't have a credible reform plan, but their position is much like people in a difficult marriage - it's not that they expect it to become wonderful, just that on balance they prefer to stay together despite everything. By contrast, the Leave option really covers two quite different futures, in and out of the EEA, and there just isn't going to be agreement on which should be chosen. "Why don't we Leave and then have a think?" is not at all appealing to anyone with doubts.
Against that, anecdotally, I was chatting to two Tory friends on the right of the party (one voted BNP in a Euro election to "send a message"), and they're undecided, because they don't feel any special benefits from being members - "it's all macroeconomics and I don't feel especially touched by it", said one. The other said that she could imagine some real benefits if we got stuck into full participation but she felt it was premature, so she was leaning towards Leave now and rejoin with enthusiasm at a later date - rather a Boris-like variant. The anecdote perhaps illustrates the lack of clear appeal on either side.
If she were willing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20124699
Generally a good piece but I disagree on two points. First off, Boris has said we should vote Out then stay in. That's intellectually indefensible, but also holes his credibility below the waterline as a theoretical leader.
Secondly, though I can't remember the chap's name, I'm reasonably confident the fellow who led the No campaign in Ireland to one treaty or another (maybe the Constitution?) was a businessman. He did later leave that campaign, so he didn't lead it for the re-run, to become an MEP, so that muddies things a little, granted.
I agree on leader. I think one of the reasons people aren't into the Peloponnesian War the same way they might be into the Second Punic War is that the former was very long and had many, many leaders (some quite short-lived). Whereas you could break down the Second Punic War to being Hannibal Makes Rome Wet Itself For Over A Decade.
http://tinyurl.com/jamyxxy
Villa were 2-0 up at home to Stoke and conceded two late goals. Had they seen out that win in game 27 they would have gone eight points clear of Arsenal. Villa did have the UEFA Cup that season so they'd played more games, but their success in 2008-09 was built upon a lot of hard work.
But I think Leicester will do it. What you really ought to be targeting is Top 3 (if not the title) to avoid having to qualify for the Champions League.
Ducks and heads for cover
If this new law from the EU don't make the Leavers percentage jump, I don't know what will.
Corruption crackdown adds to woes of MPs
Ministers are braced for a barrage of complaints from MPs, peers, diplomats and the military when new anti-money-laundering rules come into force within the next few months. Family members face questioning about their income as a result of the EU anti-corruption directive. Some banks are refusing to allow politicians’ children to open accounts or are grilling them in detail about their finances, prompting complaints of a “Spanish inquisition”. Harriet Baldwin, the economic secretary to the Treasury, said she that would be concerned if “longstanding customers” were subject to “intrusive” questioning. (THE TIMES)
This is the sort of intrusive law that the EU civil servants love to see spread among the general population.
In other words the Leave campaign would become increasingly and totally bound up in internal Tory wranglings and cease to speak to the wider country. It looks like Tory voters are the marginal voters who could swing the referendum, but ignoring the others is risky.
I don't think they ever believed they would get a referendum and only had plans to whine about not being given one.
"Ranieri has played down Leicester's chances of the title in the past but said his squad are starting to believe they can stun the league.
Jamie Vardy -- who has fully recovered from a groin operation -- is the division's joint-top scorer while Riyad Mahrez has netted 14 times with the duo leading the Foxes' charge.
"I think slowly, slowly they believe they can do something special. It's not easy of course, but it is important to try. Sometimes you need a bit of luck," said the Italian.
"When we drew against United and City my players weren't happy. They were as if we had lost the match. That was fantastic because they wanted to win.
"Now it's fantastic and now our fans are dreaming. They must continue to dream and we must continue to work hard.""
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-27055750
Note that the most affected (in numbers) will be civil servants. Note that in the story, the one group that is left out is the civil servants.... My guess is that this was briefed by civil servants who are using the MPs as cover.
If only we had a decent, credible opposition then the Tories would be toast in 2020.
Genius.
Peter Brookes, @thetimes https://t.co/0kXrIz88EJ
Jeremy Corbyn: Block dividend payments unless companies pay the living wage. https://t.co/v1ZnM0YjTc https://t.co/v3WKWb4CZW
There have certainly been a number of curious and expensive military procurements over the years.
The public will automatically have sympathy for military personnel and their families suffering inquisition (more, certainly, than for politicians and nobles).
When that happens, it will mean closer political union - more so than if there'd been no referendum. There will be complaints but it will be too late. The Eurocrat view will be that the UK has signed up to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8Rc0OfEkRE
Worth noting the chap in question also has many excellent historical videos on his channel, for those into that sort of thing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1227397/Yet-mockery-poor-bloody-infantry.html
Remain seem incoherent to me, not addressing the direction of travel of the EU, playing around with "concessions" which seem increasingly meaningless but with the vast bulk of the government, pretty much all of Labour, the SNP, most business organisations, the BBC and the bulk of the media behind them. Oh, and the Lib Dems, I nearly forgot.
I struggle to see how the majority of the population are going to be engaged in this.
I think we should leave the EU, incidentally. And I've never once chewed up car tyres.
Leadership is a real problem for Leave and Farage could throw it away for them. On the other hand they have some major strengths:
* background dislike of the EU
* events are very likely to work to Leave's advantage
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/john-mann-goes-to-war-with-the-islington-corbynistas/
The Party has lost most of its bigger private donors and depleted trade union political funds will not be capable of again bridging this gap. This is why it is time for a Labour wealth tax.
Those members with properties valued at over a million pounds should be expected to pay a Labour wealth tax of £1,000 a year to be a Labour Party member. It will raise significant money and it is entirely Socialist in its approach.’
It's 0.1% of their wealth......its revealing lots of closet Tories on the left.....
But if we take the gulf war as an example, our tanks were the best in the world and our armoured infantry and artillery were up to the job. Our air force and regular infantry were properly equipped. Our special forces have always been well equipped and widely admired.
But it makes a sound bite I suppose.
It is like Labours Trident debate - pointless. Oppositions do not make laws - governments do. Until Labour start to treat winning seats as more important than internal feuds and purges their policy pronouncements matter no more than the OMRLP.
So stop sneering at the conservatives. They are far and away the closest to a sane govt we have got and likely to have for generations as far as I can see.
That being said, he's put Rabada back on as well.
Over the decades, the military establishment in Whitehall has proved rather good at generating requirements that ensure a custom solution is required. Requirement that often don't make sense and certainly don't match anyone else on the planet. The latest Nimrod comedy was as a direct result of this.
Another example was the bizarre hybrid down spec 'd Chinook helicopters which were customised to the point of not being airworthy. It is worth noting that the original version of the special operations Chinook that this was taken from, served many many years in the US, Australia and elsewhere.
This isn't just a uk problem - back to Trident, the political anger in some quarters in the US, that the replacement will be... Er.... Trident is a pleasure to behold.
But we have a very bad case of it....
It's not enough to rail against the 'hated EUSSR and the bloated Eurocrats' opposition will only get you so far, unless you want to be a whiner on the sidelines you have to have a vision of something better, something to say 'Yes' to, and I just don't see it on the Leave side.
Some Leavers have said that the Remain side have the same duty as the status quo isn't on offer - hogwash. The Electoral Commission have done remain a favour by changing In/Out to Remain/Leave. It's crystal clear which the change option is with this wording.
So who should lead Leave? If Theresa May can't be persuaded I think they should stick with Farage. He has bested Nick Clegg and Carwyn Jones in debate, this campaign means everything to him, and he knows the topic inside out. Get Matthew Elliott to give him more media training than he's ever had, ban him from talking about immigrants causing HIV, and make his #1 priority to unite the Leave camps, and #2 to produce a proper vision of how to Leave and what would come next, and Leave might, might, still be in the game.
But as David Herdson says, it may already be game over from here.
And we really need a more dangerous spinner.
The real problem is he should be batting at 5 and told he is a proper batsman (which he is) who should look to build a long innings, rather than being shoehorned in at number 8 where he always has to play shots (or worse, number one where he has to face the new ball).
EDIT - that being said, it's also only two matches since he took seven wickets, which is hardly 'not contributing much.'
http://www.espncricinfo.com/south-africa-v-england-2015-16/engine/match/800461.html
Of course, Remain will *tell* them that all kinds of bad stuff will happen if they vote Leave. Remain may not be believed though. The only competent advocate Remain has is Cameron.
The timing of them now is dictated by the development of and the developments in the eurozone. The success of the eurozone and growth and success and progress in the new entrant countries will of course curb the tendency for us to be attractive to EU workers. It will or would probably make all those same places more attractive to UK emigrants and workers.
Leave it seems to me is hampered by the conflicting motives of its appologists.
The vast majority (by summed up value) of procurement and other spending decisions are made well below the top of the civil service. Which is why such people are in the risk categories.....
Procurement foobars are a problem in the US as well, even to the extent of camouflage patterns taking decades to decide, with millions wasted, and possibly lives lost as well:
http://www.military.com/daily-news/2012/09/28/report-slams-militarys-recent-camouflage-uniforms.html
http://theweek.com/articles/468625/irresponsibly-stupid-dangerous-camouflage-patterns-military
And this sums up the internal problems brilliantly (worth watching in full):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXQ2lO3ieBA
Leave is the more dramatic, immediate change. Remain is the change of a frog in slowly boiling water.