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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative sampl
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”
A new report just published today by NatCen Social Research and authored by leading psephologist, Prof John Curtice, suggests that the polls called the General Election wrong primarily because the samples of people they polled were not adequately representative of the country as a whole.
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You can lay it off on Betfair and double your stake money.
Labour voters on the other hand....
Although how much of this uncontactability is due to older voters not wanting to answer the phone to telemarketers. It would be good to see this sampling difference broken down by age / social class as well.
We know the ICM call centre did the private polling for Labour, and I believe that Populus did the fieldwork for the private polling that Crosby Textor did for the Tories.
Now these private polls were much more accurate than the published polls, the published polls were impeccably neutral, whereas the private polling was a bit more loaded and asked the VI question AFTER the supplementaries.
Perhaps the polls need to be less neutral and a bit more reflective that we're in a quasi-Presidential system.
It doesn't look like Mike's writing style - do we have a mystery guest author?
"Do you actually mean that you're going to get off your backside, take the bus down to the polling booth and put an X in the box for PM Jeremy Corbyn. Or are you just virtue signalling ?"
Re The Tories, you'll need to buy the book "Why the Tories Won: The Inside Story of the 2015 Election" by Tim Ross, it is said there.
You can buy it on kindle for £5.39 and I've the read book and is an informative read
http://tinyurl.com/SirLyntonRocks
However, it doesn't answer why this time (GE 2015) the slightly 'non-random' method of polling didn't work?
The electorate are the same as those in 2010 give or take , it was the pollster that changed their methods - and YouGov frequently,
Q2) Jeremy Corbyn refused to sing God Save The Queen, do you think he is a patriot, yes or no?
Q3) Jeremy Corbyn appointed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor, McDonnell has said in the past he wants to honour the IRA for their bombing campaign, do you support or oppose this?
Q4) Who will you vote for in the general election? The Tories, The Jeremy Corbyn's led Labour party or someone else?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/ted-cruz-wall-street-loan-senate-bid-2012.html?_r=0
The Metatron in Dogma
The cartoon was from Marf that was first published on PB the day after GE2015
#wtf? >RT @guardian: How to watch Netflix as a feminist https://t.co/5dGIJS1FAQ
I will work pro bono for the Tory party though.
@stephenkb: People who people trust Corbyn to keep them safer than: Putin, Blair. People who they trust more: Cameron, Osborne: http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/corbyn-no-trusted-blair-keep-britain-safe/ …
BBCLauraK
"1. Failure to shake off the myth that we (ie Labour) were responsible for the financial crash and failure to build trust in the economy"
"2. inability to deal with issues of 'connection' in particular failure to communicate on benefits and immigration "
"3. Ed Miliband was judged not be as string a leader as David Cameron 4. Fear of the SNP propping up a minority Labour government"...
BSA/Curtice say errors occur if pollsters give up on randomly picked voters after one rejection. Ideally, they should try 6+ times
...2015!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/556882506084282368
One concern for Labour should be that young people *were* stirred up at the last election (well, supposedly) by tuition fees. Also, it's not clear how far the Opposition can stir anyone up at all.
Anyway, this is taking me back to being an undergraduate and writing about the reasons for the 1906 landslide, about which I was greatly tempted to say "Who the f*ck knows?"
''Bugger this ! I'm not going to take the risk of a weak L P, led by that dam fool Miliband , being jacked out and held to ransom by an odious national party from Scotland led by Lady Mcbeth ! ''
That's what happened ...there were simply not enough gormless voters in middle England
I confidently predicted a Tory Majority for over 3 months because I knew , intuitively , that folks in England would never allow a government to be hanged by a Scottish rope ....I also won a significant amount of money off my bet !
Some fool in London bet £200, 000 on a so called ''Hung Parliament '' ; yes , a sure thing , 3 months before the election ...a week is a long time in politics but apparently 3 months is not !
A very underwhelming year of cinema, in my opinion. The Revenant gets 12 nominations, but really needed 30 minutes editing out just to stop it being deathly dull.
I wonder if we are just starting to see the rise of box-set TV really hurting the cinema?
"I've been thinking a bit about this the past 2 days, who gets the blame for the next crash - assuming there's one say this year/next. Obviously last time the bankers took a large amount of the vilification and politicians were let off for the most part. Will they be blamed this time? Or will another scapegoat be found?"
If you don't have a Cineworld card, you have to pick and choose your films, which knocks on to people attending.
(By way of comparison, my children both enjoyed "The Martian", as did I.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35309759
http://i248.photobucket.com/albums/gg190/Pulpstar/assets.jpg
IANAE, but surely it removes several potential biases:
*) They can be almost certain that the people leaving the polling station have voted.
*) Before elections, people might be unsure how they are going to vote. After leaving the polling station, they know how they voted.
*) They are face-to-face interviews, not Internet or phone polls.
Off the top of my head:
Deadpool
Cap America 3
Batman Vs Superman
X-Men Apocalpse (sp)
Suicide Squad
Dr Strange
as all comic book movies.
Then add to that
Independence Day2
Star Wars:Rogue
TMNT 2
plus probably others.
EDIT: and the reason it didn't make BAFTA VFX is that the director went to very great lengths to publicly eschew VFX. That, and many BAFTA voters didn't get past 10 minutes in before they went to the next screener, I understand from a well connected source on the judging panel!
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Editing
SFX
Original Score.
A pity about the red rosette though.
Dr. Prasannan, snobbishness? I wonder what other very successful film has had so few nominations (only got a few BAFTA nominations too).
Not saying it's a classic film, though I did like it, but I thought Titanic was bloody tedious, and that got oodles of shiny statues.
Sad to hear of Alan Rickman's death. He was an excellent villain in both Die Hard, the greatest Christmas film ever made, and Prince of Thieves.
Now if you want a family trip to the cinema you can be looking at something between £40 to £75 for tickets alone, before you get the drinks and food at the cinema.
You can get Sky Movies and Sport for around £40 a month, netflix for £8.99 and you can see why some people might prefer to stay at home.
No wonder couples might prefer to stay home and netflix and chill
If anything, they escaped very lightly: they actually were to blame for the ludicrous structure of financial regulation which Brown put in place, and which made the UK fallout from the crash much worse than it needed to have been. They don't get blamed enough for that.
Ah well.
Look, I've been saying for years on here the problem is poor sampling, so I'm in broad agreement with the report, but am not convinced by Crick's summary. Otoh, I've not actually read the full report. Of course, the exit polls do not have the other problem the full report identified of over-sampling non-voters, but that is a different issue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35309759
If he was very active trying to address the situation within the IAAF, but respected the confidentiality of internal deliberations when he failed, he might have some claim to be the man. But even in that case, it would mean:
1. that he did not speak out publicly so was not sufficiently passionate about tackling the issue to be the man
2. he did not carry the day, so does not have the persuasive powers to be the man.
It all hangs on whether the Council in general and he in particular was aware or not.
ISTR reading a very good article about the way exit polls are undertaken. It was sometime around the election, and I think it went into these sorts of matters. I wonder if anyone has a link; I think it was on here?
And one OMFG heart-stopping moment.
But don't take a watch. You might just look at it too often....