Re: Republican Nomination - At this early stage, when the average American voter knows next to zilch about the merits (or otherwise) of the various candidates, the polls are probably recording simple name recognition and little else, hence the positive numbers for Trump. The smart money appears to be on Rubio ultimately winning the GOP nomination.
Re: Republican Nomination - At this early stage, when the average American voter knows next to zilch about the merits (or otherwise) of the various candidates, the polls are probably recording simple name recognition and little else, hence the positive numbers for Trump. The smart money appears to be on Rubio ultimately winning the GOP nomination.
I think the Republican nomination is extremely hard to call. Like it or not, Trump is relatively transfer unfriendly. Still, if he's on 34% nationally, he should still take the nomination, on the basis that he's so far ahead of the competition right now. He should therefore be the betting favourite, with the proviso that - assuming Cruz takes Iowa - then whoever comes second in New Hampshire is likely to be his major challenger through the rest of the Primaries.
Iowa is organiser heavy. And it requires people to come long distances and to stand in halls and be pushed around. I think a lot of Trump support comes from people who have never done that kind of thing, and I don't get the feeling his candidacy is particularly well organised on the ground. I therefore think Trump is likely to underperform in Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the moderate Republicans - probably Rubio - outperform in Iowa. (I.e., come a decent third with a mid-teens share.)
New Hampshire is the difficult one. If the race was between Trump, Rubio and Cruz - and there was no-one else standing - then it would probably be neck-and-neck between Trump and Rubio. It isn't, and therefore I would expect Trump to win. The big question is: will any of the moderate Republican field have dropped out beforehand? I'd wager no.
If Rubio achieves a good third in Iowa, and a good second in New Hampshire, then he will be the moderate Republican to beat. However, if he underperforms in Iowa (and doesn't come third), and another Republican beats him into second New Hampshire, then it's all over for him.
After New Hampshire, you are likely to see a bunch of candidates drop out the race: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. The latter two will likely benefit Cruz, Fiorina's votes will largely head towards Rubio, I'd guess. The problem for Rubio is that he needs Christie, Bush and Kasich to drop out. Because they are competing for the role of moderate Republican. If Christie and Kasich do go before Super Tuesday, then Rubio is in with a shout - he should be polling 25-30% heading into the vote, vs 35% for Trump and a sub 30% number for Cruz.
Of course they're not going to up sticks! They've spent billions of pounds on a factory. We'd need Jeremy Corbyn in power before they considered fleeing the country.
Re: Republican Nomination - At this early stage, when the average American voter knows next to zilch about the merits (or otherwise) of the various candidates, the polls are probably recording simple name recognition and little else, hence the positive numbers for Trump. The smart money appears to be on Rubio ultimately winning the GOP nomination.
I think the Republican nomination is extremely hard to call. Like it or not, Trump is relatively transfer unfriendly. Still, if he's on 34% nationally, he should still take the nomination, on the basis that he's so far ahead of the competition right now. He should therefore be the betting favourite, with the proviso that - assuming Cruz takes Iowa - then whoever comes second in New Hampshire is likely to be his major challenger through the rest of the Primaries.
Iowa is organiser heavy. And it requires people to come long distances and to stand in halls and be pushed around. I think a lot of Trump support comes from people who have never done that kind of thing, and I don't get the feeling his candidacy is particularly well organised on the ground. I therefore think Trump is likely to underperform in Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the moderate Republicans - probably Rubio - outperform in Iowa. (I.e., come a decent third with a mid-teens share.)
New Hampshire is the difficult one. If the race was between Trump, Rubio and Cruz - and there was no-one else standing - then it would probably be neck-and-neck between Trump and Rubio. It isn't, and therefore I would expect Trump to win. The big question is: will any of the moderate Republican field have dropped out beforehand? I'd wager no.
If Rubio achieves a good third in Iowa, and a good second in New Hampshire, then he will be the moderate Republican to beat. However, if he underperforms in Iowa (and doesn't come third), and another Republican beats him into second New Hampshire, then it's all over for him.
After New Hampshire, you are likely to see a bunch of candidates drop out the race: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. The latter two will likely benefit Cruz, Fiorina's votes will largely head towards Rubio, I'd guess. The problem for Rubio is that he needs Christie, Bush and Kasich to drop out. Because they are competing for the role of moderate Republican. If Christie and Kasich do go before Super Tuesday, then Rubio is in with a shout - he should be polling 25-30% heading into the vote, vs 35% for Trump and a sub 30% number for Cruz.
Wow, that sounds pretty complicated ..... who in your opinion would stand the best chance against Hillary, since this is really what should be concentrating Republican voters' minds.
Firstly the line up for Thursday's GOP debate has been announced. 7 in the main debate, 4 in the happy hour debate. The big news is that Carly Fiorina is back in the happy hour debate.
The other news is more troubling for Hillary Clinton. The news networks are reporting that the FBI is expanding its investigation from just emails to 'public corruption'. They will be investigating the interaction between the Clinton Foundation, contributions from foreign governments, Bill's speaking fees and State contract awards during Hillary's tenure. The foundation setup is so financially opaque that Charity Navigator will not rate it.
CNN and Fox News are reporting that there are 100 FBI agents working on this investigation full time, and 50 part time. That is a big investigation.
Regardless of the outcome, the decision to indict or not will be a political one, with recommendations by FBI director Comey and AG Lynch.
The Times Media News: Rupert Murdoch and Jerry Hall announce their engagement
Jerry, what first attracted you to ....... etc.
Not sure we will be hearing about their Ruby anniversary...
Sky News A spokesman for the Murdoch family told the paper: "They have loved these past months together, are thrilled to be getting married and excited about their future"
Firstly the line up for Thursday's GOP debate has been announced. 7 in the main debate, 4 in the happy hour debate. The big news is that Carly Fiorina is back in the happy hour debate.
The other news is more troubling for Hillary Clinton. The news networks are reporting that the FBI is expanding its investigation from just emails to 'public corruption'. They will be investigating the interaction between the Clinton Foundation, contributions from foreign governments, Bill's speaking fees and State contract awards during Hillary's tenure. The foundation setup is so financially opaque that Charity Navigator will not rate it.
CNN and Fox News are reporting that there are 100 FBI agents working on this investigation full time, and 50 part time. That is a big investigation.
Regardless of the outcome, the decision to indict or not will be a political one, with recommendations by FBI director Comey and AG Lynch.
Firstly the line up for Thursday's GOP debate has been announced. 7 in the main debate, 4 in the happy hour debate. The big news is that Carly Fiorina is back in the happy hour debate.
The other news is more troubling for Hillary Clinton. The news networks are reporting that the FBI is expanding its investigation from just emails to 'public corruption'. They will be investigating the interaction between the Clinton Foundation, contributions from foreign governments, Bill's speaking fees and State contract awards during Hillary's tenure. The foundation setup is so financially opaque that Charity Navigator will not rate it.
CNN and Fox News are reporting that there are 100 FBI agents working on this investigation full time, and 50 part time. That is a big investigation.
Regardless of the outcome, the decision to indict or not will be a political one, with recommendations by FBI director Comey and AG Lynch.
Thanks for that info Tim_B. Surely it's now far too late for Carly Fiorina to make any sort of impression - at least the betting markets here think so ..... Betfair have her as big as 778/1 to win the Republican nomination! As regards Hillary, in the light of this widening FBI investigation, how do you now rate her chances of (i) Winning the Democratic nomination and (ii) Being elected POTUS in November?
Firstly the line up for Thursday's GOP debate has been announced. 7 in the main debate, 4 in the happy hour debate. The big news is that Carly Fiorina is back in the happy hour debate.
The other news is more troubling for Hillary Clinton. The news networks are reporting that the FBI is expanding its investigation from just emails to 'public corruption'. They will be investigating the interaction between the Clinton Foundation, contributions from foreign governments, Bill's speaking fees and State contract awards during Hillary's tenure. The foundation setup is so financially opaque that Charity Navigator will not rate it.
CNN and Fox News are reporting that there are 100 FBI agents working on this investigation full time, and 50 part time. That is a big investigation.
Regardless of the outcome, the decision to indict or not will be a political one, with recommendations by FBI director Comey and AG Lynch.
Thanks for that info Tim_B. Surely it's now far too late for Carly Fiorina to make any sort of impression - at least the betting markets here think so ..... Betfair have her as big as 778/1 to win the Republican nomination! As regards Hillary, in the light of this widening FBI investigation, how do you now rate her chances of (i) Winning the Democratic nomination and (ii) Being elected POTUS in November?
I don't think it makes any difference unless she is indicted. Otherwise she has the nomination sown up. Will she win in November? Depends who she is running against and a lot can happen between now and then. I have no idea.
Wow, that sounds pretty complicated ..... who in your opinion would stand the best chance against Hillary, since this is really what should be concentrating Republican voters' minds.
That's easy:
Rubio hammers Clinton Trump and Clinton have a close race Clinton hammers Cruz
Re: Republican Nomination - At this early stage, when the average American voter knows next to zilch about the merits (or otherwise) of the various candidates, the polls are probably recording simple name recognition and little else, hence the positive numbers for Trump. The smart money appears to be on Rubio ultimately winning the GOP nomination.
This early stage? Iowa is led as than a month away and New Hampshire a week or so after and if Rubio wins neither his campaign is dead
Comments
Re: Republican Nomination - At this early stage, when the average American voter knows next to zilch about the merits (or otherwise) of the various candidates, the polls are probably recording simple name recognition and little else, hence the positive numbers for Trump.
The smart money appears to be on Rubio ultimately winning the GOP nomination.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-who-won-tonights-10718381
81% v 19%
BOO
Iowa is organiser heavy. And it requires people to come long distances and to stand in halls and be pushed around. I think a lot of Trump support comes from people who have never done that kind of thing, and I don't get the feeling his candidacy is particularly well organised on the ground. I therefore think Trump is likely to underperform in Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the moderate Republicans - probably Rubio - outperform in Iowa. (I.e., come a decent third with a mid-teens share.)
New Hampshire is the difficult one. If the race was between Trump, Rubio and Cruz - and there was no-one else standing - then it would probably be neck-and-neck between Trump and Rubio. It isn't, and therefore I would expect Trump to win. The big question is: will any of the moderate Republican field have dropped out beforehand? I'd wager no.
If Rubio achieves a good third in Iowa, and a good second in New Hampshire, then he will be the moderate Republican to beat. However, if he underperforms in Iowa (and doesn't come third), and another Republican beats him into second New Hampshire, then it's all over for him.
After New Hampshire, you are likely to see a bunch of candidates drop out the race: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. The latter two will likely benefit Cruz, Fiorina's votes will largely head towards Rubio, I'd guess. The problem for Rubio is that he needs Christie, Bush and Kasich to drop out. Because they are competing for the role of moderate Republican. If Christie and Kasich do go before Super Tuesday, then Rubio is in with a shout - he should be polling 25-30% heading into the vote, vs 35% for Trump and a sub 30% number for Cruz.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Firstly the line up for Thursday's GOP debate has been announced. 7 in the main debate, 4 in the happy hour debate. The big news is that Carly Fiorina is back in the happy hour debate.
The other news is more troubling for Hillary Clinton. The news networks are reporting that the FBI is expanding its investigation from just emails to 'public corruption'. They will be investigating the interaction between the Clinton Foundation, contributions from foreign governments, Bill's speaking fees and State contract awards during Hillary's tenure. The foundation setup is so financially opaque that Charity Navigator will not rate it.
CNN and Fox News are reporting that there are 100 FBI agents working on this investigation full time, and 50 part time. That is a big investigation.
Regardless of the outcome, the decision to indict or not will be a political one, with recommendations by FBI director Comey and AG Lynch.
A spokesman for the Murdoch family told the paper: "They have loved these past months together, are thrilled to be getting married and excited about their future"
That pre-nup should be interesting....
Surely it's now far too late for Carly Fiorina to make any sort of impression - at least the betting markets here think so ..... Betfair have her as big as 778/1 to win the Republican nomination!
As regards Hillary, in the light of this widening FBI investigation, how do you now rate her chances of (i) Winning the Democratic nomination and (ii) Being elected POTUS in November?
Rubio hammers Clinton
Trump and Clinton have a close race
Clinton hammers Cruz
Now, Saunders is clearly not going to be the Democratic nominee. They're not that stupid.
Who steps up?