Of course they would re-elect him, the Labour membership now is made up largely of Trotskyite entryists.
Many of them deny this though and say they just voted for Corbyn because he was "refreshing" (or whatever). They may be telling the truth. Also, I'm not sure there are several hundred thousand Trotskyists in the UK.
The latest Times poll on this a month or so ago had Corbyn winning almost exactly the same majority with members as in September in any new ballot, as I said there is absolutely no point even launching a challenge to him if the members are consulted, Labour MPs will just have to accept he leads them into the election if that is the case. If they want to get rid of him they will have to find a way to launch a coup to topple him by themselves without consulting the membership, as Tory MPs did when they ousted IDS and replaced him with Michael Howard
The thing is, even if Corbyn resigns or is toppled, the leadership election rules remain the same, as does the membership (which may have moved even further to the left since the glorious summer of 2015!) and so his successor will likely be not much different...
If they do find a way of replacing him as leader without consulting the membership, then expect an actual split in the Labour party (ie actually becoming two political parties) on a Parliamentary-Membership basis, which of course would be terminal.
All I could think of is a stitch-up by the MPs, whereby Corbyn is persuaded to stand down in favour of his chosen successor (say McDonnell) but the MPs refuse to nominate McDonnell at the last minute after Corbyn has tendered his resignation - leaving the party members a choice of Kendall, Jarvis or Benn.
If there was a membership poll [ somehow ], none of the three above will receive more than 5% of the votes.
It would still be Burnham, Cooper, maybe Khan post-May. But , of the current crop, Tom Watson stands the best chance.
But Harriet would win any election hands down. Of course, her age comes into the question though she has not announced her retirement from 2020 yet.
Labour members would not vote for Harriet after the welfare vote
Another one of those bloody tories...
The fact most Labour members now think most Labour MPs are Tories encapsulates their problem in one
Who expects Labour to lose hundreds of councillors next May ? . Those who do have not looked at the elections being fought in May and compared them to those fought previously in 2012 and before that in 2008.
But once you're arguing detail, you're losing.
As you rightly say, Labour probably won't lose 'hundreds' of seats because it's a relatively small cohort of councillors being elected this year. All the same, they will almost certainly lose seats on a net basis, with UKIP, Con and LD all likely to make gains. Whatever the reasons, that doesn't look good.
So without a disaster in both locals and the london mayoralty, Corbyn is safe, presumably. A lot of people are expecting hundreds of losses because that's what you expect from a party doing poorly, whether that is reasonable ornot based on the actual contests that are taking place, so they have actually played the expectations game well. 'Corbyn does surprisingly well' headlines to come perhaps.
Honestly I would like to see Labour m ake some gains, it would confuse so many people.
Yes.
London is key. If Labour loses that, Corbyn will be in very serious trouble. He can brush off losses in the locals (though he shouldn't really) if Labour's taken Europe's biggest sub-national direct election.
Weirdly, Corbyn might be saved by the Tories introducing PCCs. Had they not, the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and English local results would be in before London's - which are usually counted throughout Friday rather then on Thursday night. The media narrative would therefore already be written by the London result came in. As it is, I'd expect a lot of English and Welsh counts to be delayed until Friday due to the dual elections. While these results will still come in before London, the print media will have had to hold their horses and the electronic media - which still runs to a news cycle starting at 6am - will not be so gung-ho about 'dreadful day for Labour' (if, indeed, it is).
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally ~snip~ Halfway through, he detoured into an aside about how he was now having to go around in an armored car, and how many rounds it could take before the window disintegrated, and how the security guys shove you in and let the reinforced door slam you in the ass. And the thing's ugly as hell. "If I win," sighed Trump, "I'll never ride in a Rolls-Royce ever again." And all around me guys who drive Chevy Silverados and women who drive Honda Civics roared with laughter. Usually, a candidate claims, like Clinton, to feel our pain, but, just for a moment there, we felt Trump's.
f the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
Great article, thanks for posting. The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
You said that some Tories weren't comfortable with Zac because he is viewed as not being "one of us"
As that is a phrase that was historically used by English anti-semites to describe why they didn't like Jews, I thought you shoudl clarify whether you actually intended to imply that the Tories were shot through with anti-semitism or not. I am sure you didn't mean to smear them like that.
Ps about to fly to the US so don't be offended if I don't reply...
Oh, I see, sorry - no, not at all. I've never heard of anyone, Tory or otherwise, referring to Goldsmith in that connection. What I meant is that Goldsmith's rather austere separation from mainstream conservatism (not just Heathrow but greenery generally) is probably a plus with floating voters but a minus with party traditionalists, and I think there are some doubts about the wisdom of putting up a millionaire for London. I may be wrong, but I don't get the impression that the party is as frenziedly working for Zac as they did for Boris. In the same way, Khan is getting steady support but some people aren't quite as zealous as they were for Ken. It's overall a more serious, less personal election than Boris vs Ken, and perhaps that's not a bad thing.
The only way a split could succeed electorally is if a critical mass of Labour MPs split all at once. The mass has to be high, at least, 150 who immediately has to target the party left behind as "extremists". It cannot be later than summer 2017. Better summer 2016.
The critical number is 117. The new party then becomes the "Official Opposition"
The whole scenario is unlikely, very unlikely. It also has to evoke a "liberal" tone [ Charlie Kennedy type ] to keep or even take the lost liberals.
If the number who splits is less than 50, then it will have the same effect as the SDP. Both parties will lose.
The Green vote will not come in the beginning. Also many Northern MPs may not come into the new party, thereby allowing UKIP about 20 seats. It also means Labour will regain very few Scottish seats in 2020.
If they could get past the 117, however, they would be in business.
Even if they could, it'd be a 19th century party - based almost entirely within Westminster. Where does the funding for it come from? Where does the membership to support it come from?
I note that David Davis has said he'll be voting to Leave and predicts that most of his backbench colleagues will back Leave too.
I am wondering why neither Davis nor any other leadership contender in the recent past (including IDS) ever ran on a platform of outright leaving the EU.
Politics Home Lucy Powell on John McDonnell "hard right" comments on frontbenchers resigning: "I don’t think comments were right or particularly helpful."
Labour shadow cabinet appeasers out in force in the media today. Lots of black knights denying the problems in Labour and wanting to shift attention elsewhere. Lord Falconer, Owen Jones and pb favourite Lucy Powell. Great to see that there is no intention by these people to tackle the Corbyn problem.
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally ~snip~ Halfway through, he detoured into an aside about how he was now having to go around in an armored car, and how many rounds it could take before the window disintegrated, and how the security guys shove you in and let the reinforced door slam you in the ass. And the thing's ugly as hell. "If I win," sighed Trump, "I'll never ride in a Rolls-Royce ever again." And all around me guys who drive Chevy Silverados and women who drive Honda Civics roared with laughter. Usually, a candidate claims, like Clinton, to feel our pain, but, just for a moment there, we felt Trump's.
f the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
Great article, thanks for posting. The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
Politics Home Lucy Powell on John McDonnell "hard right" comments on frontbenchers resigning: "I don’t think comments were right or particularly helpful."
Hmm - to side with Powell or McDonnell is a difficult choice.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
Which is, surely, exactly the reason he would have to resign.
If we were having a straight IN/OUT referendum on the EU as it stands now then there'd be no problem with Cameron staying on after an OUT vote. But we're not getting that. We're having a referendum on either accepting Cameron's very personal idiosyncratic vision of how the EU should be or OUT.
Cameron has made this a referendum about himself. He didn't need to. Simple as that.
Mr. Divvie, not read the story, but the reference posted here earlier suggested it was the Syrian regime soldiers doing it. [Not that that makes it right, of course].
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
If they could get past the 117, however, they would be in business.
Even if they could, it'd be a 19th century party - based almost entirely within Westminster. Where does the funding for it come from? Where does the membership to support it come from?
Those challenges exist for any new party (and are huge, I grant you). It would be a major advantage to form the official Opposition from the outset though.
They'd also hope to take a chunk of existing Labour members.
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally If the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
It is not all about the presidency. Many Republicans see Congress as the main prize. It is a distinction we sometimes miss, but imo is one that makes sometimes bizarre-seeming actions rational.
The only way a split could succeed electorally is if a critical mass of Labour MPs split all at once. The mass has to be high, at least, 150 who immediately has to target the party left behind as "extremists". It cannot be later than summer 2017. Better summer 2016.
The critical number is 117. The new party then becomes the "Official Opposition"
The whole scenario is unlikely, very unlikely. It also has to evoke a "liberal" tone [ Charlie Kennedy type ] to keep or even take the lost liberals.
If the number who splits is less than 50, then it will have the same effect as the SDP. Both parties will lose.
The Green vote will not come in the beginning. Also many Northern MPs may not come into the new party, thereby allowing UKIP about 20 seats. It also means Labour will regain very few Scottish seats in 2020.
If they could get past the 117, however, they would be in business.
Even if they could, it'd be a 19th century party - based almost entirely within Westminster. Where does the funding for it come from? Where does the membership to support it come from?
While I agree with the original post, this sort of situation is very unlikely, I don't think the money or membership will be as big a problem as you suggest.
Now that the internet is so wide spread, if you have a good product to sell getting it out there is much easer. If a party was to become the official opposition it would get sufficient media attention, to attract both members and donations, mostly at the expense of continuity labour, but also from Lib Dems and even moderate conservatives.
Labour has benefited from a stream of money, from the Trade Union Political Funds, this is going to dry up, perhaps by 95% as a result of the new Trade Union Bill. Unlike with the SDP the new party will be fighting against the labour party on an almost level finical playing field to be the main Left Leaning party in the UK.
The only way a split could succeed electorally is if a critical mass of Labour MPs split all at once. The mass has to be high, at least, 150 who immediately has to target the party left behind as "extremists". It cannot be later than summer 2017. Better summer 2016.
The critical number is 117. The new party then becomes the "Official Opposition"
The whole scenario is unlikely, very unlikely. It also has to evoke a "liberal" tone [ Charlie Kennedy type ] to keep or even take the lost liberals.
If the number who splits is less than 50, then it will have the same effect as the SDP. Both parties will lose.
The Green vote will not come in the beginning. Also many Northern MPs may not come into the new party, thereby allowing UKIP about 20 seats. It also means Labour will regain very few Scottish seats in 2020.
If they could get past the 117, however, they would be in business.
Even if they could, it'd be a 19th century party - based almost entirely within Westminster. Where does the funding for it come from? Where does the membership to support it come from?
Don't worry. The initial funding will be there. Labour also has its donors who are keeping their heads low at the moment. Some Unions will come over and Short money will be available. The party also "officially" should not be linked to the Unions but Unions could send delegates.
In the short term it will create a "goodwill". I remember some of my Tory friends [ one nation types ] who joined the SDP. The feeling lasted for a year or so once they realised the SDP were going nowhere their support evaporated.
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Do you that the mass of relatively apolitical people see it as bigger than a GE? I really doubt it. I think Cameron probably would resign but that a lot of people would be surprised when he did and not understand why.
Of course they would re-elect him, the Labour membership now is made up largely of Trotskyite entryists.
Many of them deny this though and say they just voted for Corbyn because he was "refreshing" (or whatever). They may be telling the truth. Also, I'm not sure there are several hundred thousand Trotskyists in the UK.
The latest Times poll on this a month or so ago had Corbyn winning almost exactly the same majority with members as in September in any new ballot, as I said there is absolutely no point even launching a challenge to him if the members are consulted, Labour MPs will just have to accept he leads them into the election if that is the case. If they want to get rid of him they will have to find a way to launch a coup to topple him by themselves without consulting the membership, as Tory MPs did when they ousted IDS and replaced him with Michael Howard
The thing is, even if Corbyn resigns or is toppled, the leadership election rules remain the same, as does the membership (which may have moved even further to the left since the glorious summer of 2015!) and so his successor will likely be not much different...
If they do find a way of replacing him as leader without consulting the membership, then expect an actual split in the Labour party (ie actually becoming two political parties) on a Parliamentary-Membership basis, which of course would be terminal.
All I could think of is a stitch-up by the MPs, whereby Corbyn is persuaded to stand down in favour of his chosen successor (say McDonnell) but the MPs refuse to nominate McDonnell at the last minute after Corbyn has tendered his resignation - leaving the party members a choice of Kendall, Jarvis or Benn.
If there was a membership poll [ somehow ], none of the three above will receive more than 5% of the votes.
It would still be Burnham, Cooper, maybe Khan post-May. But , of the current crop, Tom Watson stands the best chance.
But Harriet would win any election hands down. Of course, her age comes into the question though she has not announced her retirement from 2020 yet.
Labour members would not vote for Harriet after the welfare vote
Another one of those bloody tories...
The fact most Labour members now think most Labour MPs are Tories encapsulates their problem in one
"But the point is that Corbynites will see a prime example of the electoral unattractiveness of their man."
But they won't, they'll see the unfairness of 'democratic politics' driven by the media. Only when all the press is properly regulated under Chairman Jezza will sanity be restored.
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Do you that the mass of relatively apolitical people see it as bigger than a GE? I really doubt it. I think Cameron probably would resign but that a lot of people would be surprised when he did and not understand why.
I think that is unlikely. Supporters and opponents of Leave will be employing increasingly over the top language about how vital a choice this is, so I think people would understand what a blow it would be to Cameron if he were on the losing side.
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally If the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
It is not all about the presidency. Many Republicans see Congress as the main prize. It is a distinction we sometimes miss, but imo is one that makes sometimes bizarre-seeming actions rational.
Yes, well as Steyn makes abundantly clear the Republican base thinks the GOP leadership in Congress is useless, so fat lot of good it has done them winning there!
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally ~snip~ Halfway through, he detoured into an aside about how he was now having to go around in an armored car, and how many rounds it could take before the window disintegrated, and how the security guys shove you in and let the reinforced door slam you in the ass. And the thing's ugly as hell. "If I win," sighed Trump, "I'll never ride in a Rolls-Royce ever again." And all around me guys who drive Chevy Silverados and women who drive Honda Civics roared with laughter. Usually, a candidate claims, like Clinton, to feel our pain, but, just for a moment there, we felt Trump's.
f the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
Great article, thanks for posting. The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
Thanks, yes if you are president or a major presidential candidate you effectively live your life in a bubble
And here? The Prime Minister is driven a couple of hundred yards from Downing Street to Parliament. The armed guards at the gates erected only in the 1980s remain, even though the IRA is an historical relic. The Queen sees more of the public than the PM.
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
If there were more Labour MPs like Pat McFadden I could consider voting Labour..he talked a lot of sense on Sky this am
I am not sure you would be saying that if we were living in ordinary times. McFadden only stands out as being sensible when viewed in the context of Corbyn and Momentum.
He didn't make any impression when he was part of the Miliband team.
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
'Another quango chief needing a large slap with Mr Dancer's enormo-haddock.'
Now the tories have a majority they can perhaps work harder against labour's vast placeman army that makes initiatives such as this and the witch hunt of our soldiers.
Another one with his head up his orifice, what about their army of placemen and hangers on. neither want to upset the applecart as they are just cheeks of the same money grubbing arse.
Out of interest, Malcolm, do you think that the boundary between England and Scotland is in the right place (it was a good deal further south in times gone by)?
Innocent , no beef either way. I suspect that some parts just south of the border would also like to be out of the clutches of London control though. Neither Scotland or Northern England will ever prosper whilst London sucks the life blood out of them and stunts their growth and initiative. In days gone by they did try to share things , have some autonomy but London under the current effete elite is just sucking the rest dry.
I'd agree with that. However, the notion (not explicitly stated and perhaps not what you meant), that some parts of northern England would rather be in Scotland is as fanciful as the idea put forward by some last year that the Borders would opt to stay in the UK had Scotland voted Yes. For all the resentment at London, England is England.
David, I specifically never mentioned them being part of Scotland but believe they could do better on their own and linked with an independent Scotland. Unless there is a full federal system , they will continue to decline and become holiday spots for southern retirees.
I do think Khan will win in London but I struggle with the rest of the premise. There was a time when Boris was the most senior elected Tory in the country when Dave was only LOTO but it would be silly to think that he was the most powerful.
Being Mayor may well be taken to disqualify Khan whether he remains an MP or not and it is completely unrealistic to think he is going to get through a Mayoral election without giving clear commitments about standing down as an MP. Even Boris has not taken a government job until his term is up.
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Agree, as he would have done had he lost indyref
Ah, indy was a much bigger deal. That meant the end of the country people had lived in since birth. Leaving the EU isn't in the same league.
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
I don't think Khan stands any chance of becoming LOTO for two reasons:
1) He would have to resign the mayoralty to do so. Assuming he takes over at a low point, there's a guaranteed early defeat for him. He might possibly be a kingmaker, as Labour's most senior and powerful politician, but not the king. However;
2) I genuinely believe that unless Corbyn dies, he's there until 2020. He's too stubborn to resign, too stupid to understand what's happening anyway, and in any case the Labour membership alone voted him in by a thumping margin (49%) so whether the new members stay or go is irrelevant to that question.
The only reason there is no possibility of Labour breaking the record for losing most seats at an election in 2020 is that they don't have 246 seats to start with (the number of seats the Unionists lost in 1906).
If Zac is mayor then Sadiq could become LOTO.
If Zac is mayor, Khan will have proven he's not an election winner - negating the whole premise of TSE's interesting but implausible article.
If Khan cannot win in London he cannot win anywhere.
Agreed. I would go further and say if Labour do not win London they cannot win anywhere. Corbyn's entire campaign is based on the values of the London Chatterati. Having lived among them for 44 years, he is convinced they are the values of the whole country. They're not of course. But if even London rejects them, it's clear evidence of how badly damaged Labour are.
The problem is Corbyn will not see it. He'll blame a media conspiracy and carry on doing the wrong thing, blindly, until the damage is irreversible and Labour are destroyed as a political force.
Good morning all. I'd argue that Corbyn is even narrower than 'London'. He's Islington writ large. I hadn't appreciated how odd Islington was - someone mentioned some figures a few weeks ago, after fact checking they appear to be solid.
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Agree, as he would have done had he lost indyref
It's possibly a bit more complicated here though, because all the potential replacements are likely to be associated with one side of the outcome or the other (with Sindy everyone was on the same side). Don't forget that the first stages of a Conservative leadership contest take place very quickly once the starting gun is pushed, and i think he would want to give candidates on the remain side a bit of time to recover their positions.
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally ~snip~ Halfway through, he detoured into an aside about how he was now having to go around in an armored car, and how many rounds it could take before the window disintegrated, and how the security guys shove you in and let the reinforced door slam you in the ass. And the thing's ugly as hell. "If I win," sighed Trump, "I'll never ride in a Rolls-Royce ever again." And all around me guys who drive Chevy Silverados and women who drive Honda Civics roared with laughter. Usually, a candidate claims, like Clinton, to feel our pain, but, just for a moment there, we felt Trump's.
f the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
Great article, thanks for posting. The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
Thanks, yes if you are president or a major presidential candidate you effectively live your life in a bubble
And here? The Prime Minister is driven a couple of hundred yards from Downing Street to Parliament. The armed guards at the gates erected only in the 1980s remain, even though the IRA is an historical relic. The Queen sees more of the public than the PM.
You think the terrorist threat has diminished since the 80s? Well, it's a view I suppose.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
I have to say, I have some sympathy with that view. Its the cover up though. They have told several lies.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
I agree. If he had set up a management structure which meant that his agency could not work when he was on holiday he would deserve to be sacked.
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
Indeed, Bloomberg, Schwarzanneger etc have all built close relationships with Boris
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
View from up here is , who gives a ????, nobody interested , just another gold digger milking the system, and usually a buffoon to boot.
Mark Steyn on attending a Trump rally ~snip~ Halfway through, he detoured into an aside about how he was now having to go around in an armored car, and how many rounds it could take before the window disintegrated, and how the security guys shove you in and let the reinforced door slam you in the ass. And the thing's ugly as hell. "If I win," sighed Trump, "I'll never ride in a Rolls-Royce ever again." And all around me guys who drive Chevy Silverados and women who drive Honda Civics roared with laughter. Usually, a candidate claims, like Clinton, to feel our pain, but, just for a moment there, we felt Trump's.
f the national GOP is a vehicle for ensuring that John Boehner, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have a car and driver and a Gulf emir-sized retinue, then it's very effective. If it's a vehicle for advancing conservative principles, then it's a rusted-up lemon on cinder blocks. For many conservative voters, 2014 was the GOP's last chance, and they blew it. For those conservative voters whose priority is immigration, 2016 is America's last chance, and Trump's the only reason anyone's even talking about that.' http://www.steynonline.com/7408/notes-on-a-phenomenon
Great article, thanks for posting. The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
Thanks, yes if you are president or a major presidential candidate you effectively live your life in a bubble
And here? The Prime Minister is driven a couple of hundred yards from Downing Street to Parliament. The armed guards at the gates erected only in the 1980s remain, even though the IRA is an historical relic. The Queen sees more of the public than the PM.
Well it is not much different for the PM and LotO either yes
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Agree, as he would have done had he lost indyref
Ah, indy was a much bigger deal. That meant the end of the country people had lived in since birth. Leaving the EU isn't in the same league.
Many of us will have been in the EEC/EU since birth, myself included and it will be if Cameron leads the campaign
'Agree, as he would have done had he lost indyref'
Sounds like he is hedging his bets to me
'It was all anti Maastricht at that stage, which Redwood and IDS certainly were'
Indeed it was and it is worth considering why things have moved on. First, Maastricht was a massive change in the nature of the EU.
In the 1980s the old arguments against the EU, of it being an embryonic superstate and eroding UK self-government, were hard to substantiate. The EU then was still primarily a trading arrangement with a few bolt-ons. After Maastricht there was a major change - the EC was now going to be a 'Union'; it was going to have a currency; it was going to have a social policy.
These were major moves towards a federal state - the plummy voices at the FO could no longer pat us on the head and tell us that the EC's federal ambitions were just airy continental rhetoric, not be taken seriously.
And then of course we had the actual forcing through of Maastricht in the UK and the bullying of the Danes (with our government complicit in that) - it became clear at that point that the UK political establishment could not be trusted in European matters.
Maastricht also opened the door to the further extensions of EU authority seen since at Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon. It loosened a ratchet that has been inexorably tightening since, and will continue to do so.
A lot of today's Eurosceptics could put up with the EC as it was in the 1980s. The creature it has since become, and that which it will be in the near future, cannot be tolerated by anyone who believes in self-government for the UK.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
I don't think Khan stands any chance of becoming LOTO for two reasons:
1) He would have to resign the mayoralty to do so. Assuming he takes over at a low point, there's a guaranteed early defeat for him. He might possibly be a kingmaker, as Labour's most senior and powerful politician, but not the king. However;
2) I genuinely believe that unless Corbyn dies, he's there until 2020. He's too stubborn to resign, too stupid to understand what's happening anyway, and in any case the Labour membership alone voted him in by a thumping margin (49%) so whether the new members stay or go is irrelevant to that question.
The only reason there is no possibility of Labour breaking the record for losing most seats at an election in 2020 is that they don't have 246 seats to start with (the number of seats the Unionists lost in 1906).
If Zac is mayor then Sadiq could become LOTO.
If Zac is mayor, Khan will have proven he's not an election winner - negating the whole premise of TSE's interesting but implausible article.
If Khan cannot win in London he cannot win anywhere.
Agreed. I would go further and say if Labour do not win London they cannot win anywhere. Corbyn's entire campaign is based on the values of the London Chatterati. Having lived among them for 44 years, he is convinced they are the values of the whole country. They're not of course. But if even London rejects them, it's clear evidence of how badly damaged Labour are.
The problem is Corbyn will not see it. He'll blame a media conspiracy and carry on doing the wrong thing, blindly, until the damage is irreversible and Labour are destroyed as a political force.
Good morning all. I'd argue that Corbyn is even narrower than 'London'. He's Islington writ large. I hadn't appreciated how odd Islington was - someone mentioned some figures a few weeks ago, after fact checking they appear to be solid.
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Which is why Corbyn's best chance of winning is for the UK to become like London ie a majority are renters not home owners and rely on public transport, as people take longer to get on the housing ladder that is one thing which could help Corbyn a little
The Labour MP Simon Danczuk charged £5,000 for an interview with a national newspaper in which he discussed intimate text messages he had sent to a teenage girl.
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
Indeed, Bloomberg, Schwarzanneger etc have all built close relationships with Boris
A billionaire and a thick as mince "actor", just about says it all , clowns and comic singers come to mind. Now we also have Cameron forcing parents to take "parenting" classes so they can decide who is fit to bring up their children, is he mentally deranged. Does the money rot these idiots brains.
Trump leads by a very healthy margin, Rubio if anything slipping.
Only the Iowa Caucus can change things, and that's a straight Cruz/Trump race.
So I think 2.25 on Trump (PP/SkyBet) is clear value.
Cruz at 11 (PP - much shorter elsewhere) is a personal hedge, in case Trump implodes after losing Iowa (the poll Mike linked shows Cruz takes the lion's share). I don't really express a strong opinion on that, mind. (Combined = 1.87, greater than I think Trump should be ~1.72).
Following my post earlier PP have cut Trump to 2.1, although their Cruz odds are still 11 (max bet for me ~£20 though). Sky will still give you 2.25.
Cameron on Marr said he is hopeful of a renegotiation but if it is an Out vote he will have to work with that. Jeremy Corbyn and Leonardo Di Caprio on next week.
I've never understood why Cameron should be expected to resign if Leave wins. If Leave wins, then it means a very clear majority of Conservative voters will have voted that way.
If Cameron leads Remain, as is likely, and it is an Out vote his position and that of Osborne will be almost untenable, he would almost certainly resign anyway and be replaced by a leading Tory Outer
No it wouldn't. Cameron would simply negotiate to take us into the EEA.
Given he had just spent the last few months campaigning for the EU he would hardly be best placed to negotiate the UK's withdrawal from it even if it did join the EEA
I think Cameron will resign if the EU vote is lost. It is too big a thing. In fact, in terms of the nation, it is slightly bigger than the General Election.
Agree, as he would have done had he lost indyref
It's possibly a bit more complicated here though, because all the potential replacements are likely to be associated with one side of the outcome or the other (with Sindy everyone was on the same side). Don't forget that the first stages of a Conservative leadership contest take place very quickly once the starting gun is pushed, and i think he would want to give candidates on the remain side a bit of time to recover their positions.
Yes but on the other side that means there are also more Out backing candidates who could launch a challenge, whereas there were no Yes backing Tories post indyref
The Labour MP Simon Danczuk charged £5,000 for an interview with a national newspaper in which he discussed intimate text messages he had sent to a teenage girl.
And? The text message business is an issue, but if a newspaper is willing to pay him to conduct an interview about it, why not? Might as well make some money out of this humiliation. Or is there more to this?
The Labour MP Simon Danczuk charged £5,000 for an interview with a national newspaper in which he discussed intimate text messages he had sent to a teenage girl.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
Sorry, he was doing a crap job by being on holiday? Yes, I understand why from a PR perspective you should get the first flight home, but I don't think it actually makes any difference on the ground, and the media always hype hype it up to generate a story.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
The problem is the socio-political stance of the Environment Agency. The corporate position of the agency is that "environment" is it's prime duty. This means removing as much evidence of Man from the environment as possible - ignoring the fact that the entire UK landscape is man made, of course. So major flood control works or prevention of sea erosion is actually bad.
In such a mindset, the floods are Nature reclaiming the land and is just to be expected. Why panic about the expected.
The Labour MP Simon Danczuk charged £5,000 for an interview with a national newspaper in which he discussed intimate text messages he had sent to a teenage girl.
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
View from up here is , who gives a ????, nobody interested , just another gold digger milking the system, and usually a buffoon to boot.
Well, that's the view in the rest of the world - China for example.
The only way a split could succeed electorally is if a critical mass of Labour MPs split all at once. The mass has to be high, at least, 150 who immediately has to target the party left behind as "extremists". It cannot be later than summer 2017. Better summer 2016.
The critical number is 117. The new party then becomes the "Official Opposition"
The whole scenario is unlikely, very unlikely. It also has to evoke a "liberal" tone [ Charlie Kennedy type ] to keep or even take the lost liberals.
If the number who splits is less than 50, then it will have the same effect as the SDP. Both parties will lose.
The Green vote will not come in the beginning. Also many Northern MPs may not come into the new party, thereby allowing UKIP about 20 seats. It also means Labour will regain very few Scottish seats in 2020.
If they could get past the 117, however, they would be in business.
Yep, the question being for how long they think it will take to get Labour back from the Corbynites? If they can see it being 10 years in the future then a fair number of them have to be up for opposing the government rather than their own party.
They key will be the timing of it, it probably has to be no later than this year's Conference otherwise it will look like a reaction to deselections etc. If they do it sooner it looks like a positive choice rather than something they were forced into, and with some good media people onside they will find more public support than they might assume from the vocal Corbynistas among the membership.
If they get the critical mass of 117 then 'Old' Labour become almost irrelevant overnight - PMQs will be the PM against the new party, the big showpiece events such as the Budget will see the first response from the new party etc.
All well and good, but do they have the cojones to do it? Probably not.
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
Good morning all. I'd argue that Corbyn is even narrower than 'London'. He's Islington writ large. I hadn't appreciated how odd Islington was - someone mentioned some figures a few weeks ago, after fact checking they appear to be solid.
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Which is why Corbyn's best chance of winning is for the UK to become like London ie a majority are renters not home owners and rely on public transport, as people take longer to get on the housing ladder that is one thing which could help Corbyn a little
The Tories' Generation Rent problem is real but I don't think it will be in time to save Corbyn. By 2030 it may be decisive.
It may be that rather than trying to promote home ownership the Tories would do better simply to try to appeal more to those who rent.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
I agree. If he had set up a management structure which meant that his agency could not work when he was on holiday he would deserve to be sacked.
It feeds the narrative though. There's been lots of similar stories over the years where key people had being conveniently on holiday when a predictable problem occurred, or were found to be 'wintering' in Barbados or Gstaad while 'working from home' and being paid large amounts of taxpayers' money.
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
Do you at least have a place in the country and ride to hounds at weekends?
I think that the EU referendum will be at least the equivalent of a vote of no confidence in the leadership of Cameron and that, if he were to lose, he would inevitably resign. The consequences for the Conservative Party would be horrendous and are the only conceivable scenario where a Corbyn led Labour Party could get close to gaining power.
My suspicion is that as this becomes obvious and the implications sink in the majority of Tories will follow Cameron's lead, however unhappily. This is one of the reasons I think Remain will win. There is undoubtedly a minority for which this is The Issue on which they will vote regardless of the consequences but not nearly enough. The polling suggests that the views endlessly repeated on this site are highly atypical and that the vast majority of the party thinks Cameron is doing a good or very good job. Ending his Premiership and risking the inmates taking over the Asylum will weigh very heavily with these people.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
Sorry, he was doing a crap job by being on holiday? Yes, I understand why from a PR perspective you should get the first flight home, but I don't think it actually makes any difference on the ground, and the media always hype hype it up to generate a story.
His job is flood defence / prevention, how crap is he doing do you think.
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
Do you at least have a place in the country and ride to hounds at weekends?
A place in a different country. I've never sat on the back of a horse, still less with hounds. I quite like dogs though. Does that count?
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
We should all fear the backlash against people like yourself paying for the crimes of JJ....
Good morning all. I'd argue that Corbyn is even narrower than 'London'. He's Islington writ large. I hadn't appreciated how odd Islington was - someone mentioned some figures a few weeks ago, after fact checking they appear to be solid.
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Which is why Corbyn's best chance of winning is for the UK to become like London ie a majority are renters not home owners and rely on public transport, as people take longer to get on the housing ladder that is one thing which could help Corbyn a little
The Tories' Generation Rent problem is real but I don't think it will be in time to save Corbyn. By 2030 it may be decisive.
It may be that rather than trying to promote home ownership the Tories would do better simply to try to appeal more to those who rent.
The Tories won 47% of homeowners, Labour 23% and 42% of mortgage payers to Labour's 29% at the general election. However Labour almost tied the Tories amongst private renters 32% to 34% and trounced the Tories amongst social renters 45% to 20% so if the Tories fail to promote home ownership and try only to appeal to renters they will be sowing the seeds of their own demise https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
I agree. If he had set up a management structure which meant that his agency could not work when he was on holiday he would deserve to be sacked.
It feeds the narrative though. There's been lots of similar stories over the years where key people had being conveniently on holiday when a predictable problem occurred, or were found to be 'wintering' in Barbados or Gstaad while 'working from home' and being paid large amounts of taxpayers' money.
True. The idea he could "work from home" in Barbados or Bermuda or wherever frankly caused my eyebrows to raise more than anything else he said to the MPs when being questioned about this.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
Sorry, he was doing a crap job by being on holiday? Yes, I understand why from a PR perspective you should get the first flight home, but I don't think it actually makes any difference on the ground, and the media always hype hype it up to generate a story.
His job is flood defence / prevention, how crap is he doing do you think.
I thought his job was running the agency? With an unlimited budget, they could encase all our towns in giant walls to prevent any flooding. However, they have a limited resources, and have to make a judgement call as to where best to direct their resources. I'm guessing that they rely heavily on evidence provided by experts in the field, not some chairman pointing to a map saying "I want flood defences here, here, and here", with a giant stick.
Mr. HYUFD, better mountains and whisky in Scotland, though
If you work in London you can afford the best whisky and a comfortable pile in the Highlands!
Only the minority at the top of the ponzi scheme.
Certainly if you work in the City
Interesting comparisons for you. I live in a beautiful part of the country , near the sea , mountains , etc yet can be in Glasgow in under 30 mins , a good sized 4 bedroom detached modern house is about £200K, same as a rabbit hutch in London.
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
Do you at least have a place in the country and ride to hounds at weekends?
A place in a different country. I've never sat on the back of a horse, still less with hounds. I quite like dogs though. Does that count?
I sincerely recommend going for a hack when you are out of town. Moseying along at a walking pace on a horse - you see the countryside from a different perspective.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
The problem is the socio-political stance of the Environment Agency. The corporate position of the agency is that "environment" is it's prime duty. This means removing as much evidence of Man from the environment as possible - ignoring the fact that the entire UK landscape is man made, of course. So major flood control works or prevention of sea erosion is actually bad.
In such a mindset, the floods are Nature reclaiming the land and is just to be expected. Why panic about the expected.
Then they should save our money and not be paying huge sums to these useless parasites who only make matters worse and spend more time on holidays than they do productively.
Trump leads by a very healthy margin, Rubio if anything slipping.
Only the Iowa Caucus can change things, and that's a straight Cruz/Trump race.
So I think 2.25 on Trump (PP/SkyBet) is clear value.
Cruz at 11 (PP - much shorter elsewhere) is a personal hedge, in case Trump implodes after losing Iowa (the poll Mike linked shows Cruz takes the lion's share). I don't really express a strong opinion on that, mind. (Combined = 1.87, greater than I think Trump should be ~1.72).
Following my post earlier PP have cut Trump to 2.1, although their Cruz odds are still 11 (max bet for me ~£20 though). Sky will still give you 2.25.
Yougov yesterday had Cruz as the clear second choice of Republican voters if Trump goes out, it looks like the base is ready to give the GOP establishment a good kicking, they are in Corbynista mode on the other side of the spectrum
I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia. There are many hardworking Islingtonians like me who are horrified by public preconceptions about us.
Do you at least have a place in the country and ride to hounds at weekends?
A place in a different country. I've never sat on the back of a horse, still less with hounds. I quite like dogs though. Does that count?
I sincerely recommend going for a hack when you are out of town. Moseying along at a walking pace on a horse - you see the countryside from a different perspective.
The Environment Agency misled the public by claiming that the wife of its chairman was from Barbados, when she is in fact from another Caribbean island, it has been claimed.
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
What difference would it have made if he came back early? I don't understand why the media get so riled up in situations like these, isn't it exactly what deputies are for, to assume your duties when you are unavailable? I doubt anyone would have been questioning the deputy's competence if the chairman was in hospital undergoing major surgery, for instance.
when you are milking the public purse and doing a crap job, you should at least be able to show face and apologise. Anyone with any principles or morals would have been on the first flight home. A Waster of the first order.
Sorry, he was doing a crap job by being on holiday? Yes, I understand why from a PR perspective you should get the first flight home, but I don't think it actually makes any difference on the ground, and the media always hype hype it up to generate a story.
His job is flood defence / prevention, how crap is he doing do you think.
I thought his job was running the agency? With an unlimited budget, they could encase all our towns in giant walls to prevent any flooding. However, they have a limited resources, and have to make a judgement call as to where best to direct their resources. I'm guessing that they rely heavily on evidence provided by experts in the field, not some chairman pointing to a map saying "I want flood defences here, here, and here", with a giant stick.
Rob, they are crap at it , they would be better just burning our money rather than employing these donkeys.
Good morning all. I'd argue that Corbyn is even narrower than 'London'. He's Islington writ large. I hadn't appreciated how odd Islington was - someone mentioned some figures a few weeks ago, after fact checking they appear to be solid.
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Which is why Corbyn's best chance of winning is for the UK to become like London ie a majority are renters not home owners and rely on public transport, as people take longer to get on the housing ladder that is one thing which could help Corbyn a little
The Tories' Generation Rent problem is real but I don't think it will be in time to save Corbyn. By 2030 it may be decisive.
It may be that rather than trying to promote home ownership the Tories would do better simply to try to appeal more to those who rent.
The Tories won 47% of homeowners, Labour 23% and 42% of mortgage payers to Labour's 29% at the general election. However Labour almost tied the Tories amongst private renters 32% to 34% and trounced the Tories amongst social renters 45% to 20% so if the Tories fail to promote home ownership and try only to appeal to renters they will be sowing the seeds of their own demise https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
If Khan becomes Mayor of London he will be the second most powerful person in the country, he is not going to be able to do that job and leader of the opposition and I doubt he would want to, especially immediately post defeat. Even Boris served two terms, so Khan would unlikely be available about 2023/24 anyway
LOL, you must be barking if you think that. A PR roll for buffoons who fill their pockets and disappear afterwards.
Being Mayor of a global city like London is a major role, indeed there are more people who live in Greater London than the whole of Scotland!
Am I supposed to be impressed that people are packed like sardines in a concrete jungle.
No. But it is worth considering that the Mayor of London is a role that is comparable to being the President of a small(ish) country.
Nobody gives a tinkers cuss about the mayor of London other than themselves and their hangers on. Is it any wonder the country is in such a state given the sheeple running about thinking the Mayor of London is anything other than a figurehead lining their pockets.
Judging by international reactions, meetings etc.. the role is judged as being in the same rank as Mayor of New York.
Indeed, Bloomberg, Schwarzanneger etc have all built close relationships with Boris
A billionaire and a thick as mince "actor", just about says it all , clowns and comic singers come to mind. Now we also have Cameron forcing parents to take "parenting" classes so they can decide who is fit to bring up their children, is he mentally deranged. Does the money rot these idiots brains.
Bloomberg was Mayor of New York and at the time he and Boris were Mayors of the two greatest cities on the planet
Comments
London is key. If Labour loses that, Corbyn will be in very serious trouble. He can brush off losses in the locals (though he shouldn't really) if Labour's taken Europe's biggest sub-national direct election.
Weirdly, Corbyn might be saved by the Tories introducing PCCs. Had they not, the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and English local results would be in before London's - which are usually counted throughout Friday rather then on Thursday night. The media narrative would therefore already be written by the London result came in. As it is, I'd expect a lot of English and Welsh counts to be delayed until Friday due to the dual elections. While these results will still come in before London, the print media will have had to hold their horses and the electronic media - which still runs to a news cycle starting at 6am - will not be so gung-ho about 'dreadful day for Labour' (if, indeed, it is).
The bit about cars and security reminded me of Jerry Seinfeld interviewing Obama for his "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee" series - the Secret Service wouldn't let them drive anywhere except around the grounds of the White House, because he was only allowed to leave in the big convoy. He admitted to not having driven a car since he was elected - that must be a hugely stifling environment for anyone to live in.
http://comediansincarsgettingcoffee.com/president-barack-obama-just-tell-him-you-re-the-president
Have a good trip!
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm
For stability, the German electorate makes Mount Rushmore look like a sandcastle.
I am wondering why neither Davis nor any other leadership contender in the recent past (including IDS) ever ran on a platform of outright leaving the EU.
Thanks for the outline of the poll.
https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/686126109751177216
Lucy Powell on John McDonnell "hard right" comments on frontbenchers resigning: "I don’t think comments were right or particularly helpful."
If we were having a straight IN/OUT referendum on the EU as it stands now then there'd be no problem with Cameron staying on after an OUT vote. But we're not getting that. We're having a referendum on either accepting Cameron's very personal idiosyncratic vision of how the EU should be or OUT.
Cameron has made this a referendum about himself. He didn't need to. Simple as that.
Very saddening. And now I feel guilty for having stuffed my face with a bag of crisps earlier.
They'd also hope to take a chunk of existing Labour members.
Now that the internet is so wide spread, if you have a good product to sell getting it out there is much easer. If a party was to become the official opposition it would get sufficient media attention, to attract both members and donations, mostly at the expense of continuity labour, but also from Lib Dems and even moderate conservatives.
Labour has benefited from a stream of money, from the Trade Union Political Funds, this is going to dry up, perhaps by 95% as a result of the new Trade Union Bill. Unlike with the SDP the new party will be fighting against the labour party on an almost level finical playing field to be the main Left Leaning party in the UK.
In the short term it will create a "goodwill". I remember some of my Tory friends [ one nation types ] who joined the SDP. The feeling lasted for a year or so once they realised the SDP were going nowhere their support evaporated.
"But the point is that Corbynites will see a prime example of the electoral unattractiveness of their man."
But they won't, they'll see the unfairness of 'democratic politics' driven by the media. Only when all the press is properly regulated under Chairman Jezza will sanity be restored.
He didn't make any impression when he was part of the Miliband team.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/flooding/12091594/Flooding-Environment-Agency-chiefs-face-MPs-questions.html
Not the only porkie pie they told...turning into a bit of a habit.
Being Mayor may well be taken to disqualify Khan whether he remains an MP or not and it is completely unrealistic to think he is going to get through a Mayoral election without giving clear commitments about standing down as an MP. Even Boris has not taken a government job until his term is up.
'Squeeze dissing Cameron to his face on Marr. Changing lyrics to 'hell bent on destruction of the welfare state'.'
What's does that mean in English ?
Islington has the lowest car ownership in London. One of the highest proportion of renters (68%) of which 44% are in social housing. It's not as diverse as some other parts of London (74% white - though a fifth of those are not British). I could go on.
There's nothing wrong with being different, it's just that Corbyn has swum in the Islington sea since 1983; that has to have coloured his world view.
Sounds like he is hedging his bets to me
'It was all anti Maastricht at that stage, which Redwood and IDS certainly were'
Indeed it was and it is worth considering why things have moved on. First, Maastricht was a massive change in the nature of the EU.
In the 1980s the old arguments against the EU, of it being an embryonic superstate and eroding UK self-government, were hard to substantiate. The EU then was still primarily a trading arrangement with a few bolt-ons. After Maastricht there was a major change - the EC was now going to be a 'Union'; it was going to have a currency; it was going to have a social policy.
These were major moves towards a federal state - the plummy voices at the FO could no longer pat us on the head and tell us that the EC's federal ambitions were just airy continental rhetoric, not be taken seriously.
And then of course we had the actual forcing through of Maastricht in the UK and the bullying of the Danes (with our government complicit in that) - it became clear at that point that the UK political establishment could not be trusted in European matters.
Maastricht also opened the door to the further extensions of EU authority seen since at Amsterdam, Nice, Lisbon. It loosened a ratchet that has been inexorably tightening since, and will continue to do so.
A lot of today's Eurosceptics could put up with the EC as it was in the 1980s. The creature it has since become, and that which it will be in the near future, cannot be tolerated by anyone who believes in self-government for the UK.
Why can't this MP resign on the BBC FFS
Now we also have Cameron forcing parents to take "parenting" classes so they can decide who is fit to bring up their children, is he mentally deranged. Does the money rot these idiots brains.
In such a mindset, the floods are Nature reclaiming the land and is just to be expected. Why panic about the expected.
They key will be the timing of it, it probably has to be no later than this year's Conference otherwise it will look like a reaction to deselections etc. If they do it sooner it looks like a positive choice rather than something they were forced into, and with some good media people onside they will find more public support than they might assume from the vocal Corbynistas among the membership.
If they get the critical mass of 117 then 'Old' Labour become almost irrelevant overnight - PMQs will be the PM against the new party, the big showpiece events such as the Budget will see the first response from the new party etc.
All well and good, but do they have the cojones to do it? Probably not.
It may be that rather than trying to promote home ownership the Tories would do better simply to try to appeal more to those who rent.
My suspicion is that as this becomes obvious and the implications sink in the majority of Tories will follow Cameron's lead, however unhappily. This is one of the reasons I think Remain will win. There is undoubtedly a minority for which this is The Issue on which they will vote regardless of the consequences but not nearly enough. The polling suggests that the views endlessly repeated on this site are highly atypical and that the vast majority of the party thinks Cameron is doing a good or very good job. Ending his Premiership and risking the inmates taking over the Asylum will weigh very heavily with these people.
"I'm detecting a very worrying growth in Islingtonphobia."
Surely it should be Islington-dislike ? A phobia used to mean an unnatural dislike, and what's unnatural about it?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
http://www.buzzfeed.com/hilarywardle/game-of-homes?utm_term=.yrXAN298w#.scg7RlrX1
Without Trump
Cruz 34%
Rubio 17%
Carson 8%
Paul 7%
Bush 7%
Christie 7%
Kasich 5%
Huckabee 5%
Fiorina 4%
Santorum 2%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/01/09/ted-cruzs-moment-gaining-national-gop-support-and-/