More on a key driver of politics in the coming years - the end of cheap labour.
I'm not entirely convinced. Software capabilities have grown so rapidly recently, that direct human replacement for some roles may not be far off.
The infrastructure and tooling support for things like machine learning are also increasingly being open sourced (e.g. Google's TensorFlow and Facebook's Torch modules).
It's mix and match. Mainly machines are good at dumb, repatative tasks. This has been broadened so that they can do dumb jobs that require a bit of human input.
McDonalds will be 100% automated at the back end within a very short time - certainly in this country when the minimum wage kicks in. You will have a couple of well paid staff to mind the place, fix the machines, greet the customers etc, rather than 2 dozen running around behind the counter.
This has happened many times over history & claims the end is in sight eg machines replaced lots of jobs in manufacturing in factories, but we still have millions of people in equivalent jobs in other parts of economy. I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
Probably. For much of the 2000s it is was easy money & hence so many people have got into it. Now the direction of travel is that the general climate will be less favourable ( higher interest rates have to come at some point soon too), it isn't a massive surprise people will be considering their position.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
The other changes such as pretending that business costs are actually profit and should be taxed as income will make many personal portfolios with mortgages unsustainable from the return provided by yield.
The suggestion was that people should incorporate. Unfortunately the Stamp Duty change means that now carries a surcharge (the 3%), equivalent to 6-12 months rent, on the first 15 properties. That is irrational as a decision unless you are a really long term investor - 7-10 years - or you are in a booming market.
The easy way is to sell up and take 5 years abroad in certain places to avoid the CGT liability. If the CGT liability is since say 2000 on 30 or 40 properties in London you can see why LLs would do it.
Osbo's extra stamp duty will make it harder for people not committed to long term LL-ing, which will deter neophytes diversifying their pensions.
I wonder if spread companies will do one on the % of home-owners ?
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
Foreign policy - at least Middle East intervention - and Trident and the use of force against "terrorists" (in quotation marks because some Corbynistas may well believe the "one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter" line) is, however, something that is close to Corbyn's heart and at least some of those who voted for him feel that having someone like him in charge is a direct challenge to the Blair world view and all that that entailed. So I think it will be very hard indeed for Corbyn to accept divided opinion on this as, however relatively unimportant to the general public, it's pretty central to him.
Foreign policy is not foreign at all to Corbyn. It's pretty much the only thing that distinguished him in his years of rebellion - all that vainglorious and delusional "I'm talking to Hamas to advance the Israel/Palestine peace process / the IRA to advance the Northern Ireland peace process" nonsense. Why would he want to give that up? Without it he's just another MP rebelling on the size of the welfare budget. Important but a teensy bit dull, no? And not heroic.
Yes, that's spot on. Foreign policy is hugely important to Corbyn himself. It's perfect ground for a protest movement because you can bang on about the iniquity of others without having to really "own" the solution or care about practicalities.
''I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.''
Its an interesting debate, certainly. Look at the 1930s, for instance. Labour intensive industrues, Far fewer women in the workforce, and yet raging unemployment.
For me, the argument that the the rich are too rich relative to the rest of us is by far the best argument the left has.
If that were to be reversed, and by the market, the last possible reason for voting for a left wing party goes.
Mr. M, I wonder that, but it's mostly due to money worries (I haven't released a large size story since late 2013, although there is stuff ahead in the near future).
I do enjoy it a lot (the hell of proofreading aside).
''I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.''
Its an interesting debate, certainly. Look at the 1930s, for instance. Labour intensive industrues, Far fewer women in the workforce, and yet raging unemployment.
For me, the argument that the the rich are too rich relative to the rest of us is by far the best argument the left has.
If that were to be reversed, and by the market, the last possible reason for voting for a left wing party goes.
I agree. What the left needs to do is pitch the inequality argument in a way that appeals to, rather than threatens, middle-income people.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
Hmm. I think it is a tax grab and an opportunity to eat Labour's lunch, and a pitch to Generation Rent.
I wonder how many of a typical selection of 200,000 tenants can afford, or obtain a mortgage, to buy the houses they live in?
For many the reason they are renting is because they are not in a position to buy and the weaker ones would suffer.
I'm tempted by the analogy with Mrs Merkel's policy making sure (hopefully unintentionally) that the stronger refugees make it to Germany because the weaker ones sink rather than swim.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
But think of the CGT that will be raised. 200,000 generating £50,000 each in CGT = £10bn.
Beth Rigby #Deutschland83 & the Nato exercises: declassified US papers suggest plot truer 2 history than you might have thought https://t.co/ri4bdffaPg
More on a key driver of politics in the coming years - the end of cheap labour.
I'm not entirely convinced. Software capabilities have grown so rapidly recently, that direct human replacement for some roles may not be far off.
The infrastructure and tooling support for things like machine learning are also increasingly being open sourced (e.g. Google's TensorFlow and Facebook's Torch modules).
It's mix and match. Mainly machines are good at dumb, repatative tasks. This has been broadened so that they can do dumb jobs that require a bit of human input.
McDonalds will be 100% automated at the back end within a very short time - certainly in this country when the minimum wage kicks in. You will have a couple of well paid staff to mind the place, fix the machines, greet the customers etc, rather than 2 dozen running around behind the counter.
This has happened many times over history & claims the end is in sight eg machines replaced lots of jobs in manufacturing in factories, but we still have millions of people in equivalent jobs in other parts of economy. I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.
Something similar to the McDonalds exercise is due to happen to the supply of prescription medicines late this or early next year.
@SkyNewsBreak: German foreign ministry says passport-free Schengen zone "in danger" after Denmark & Sweden announced new border controls to stem migration
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
It's a tax raising policy - a friendless sector ripe for squeezing.
Completely OT but vaguely connected with the surveying topic discussed earlier. The Environment Agency has put up their LIDAR survey data free to use. Not complete because a lot of areas have not yet been completely surveyed.
One version of it can be found here. Loads of fun.
He makes some good points. However he seems rather overly focussed on cyclists. Speaking as a walker, there's little worse than mile after mile of tarmac walking. Where possible such paths need to be suitable for all users, from cyclists, disabled users, walkers, horseriders, and everyone else in between.
Some pbred was on here last night I think about manufacturing having been in recession for multiple months, I thought that was wrong and today's markit survey shows it is still growing albeit not as quickly.
Surbiton is going by the official statistics which do show a contraction in manufacturing over the last three quarters. The PMI and the ONS figures haven't matched up for a while in manufacturing or construction, the former registering growth in both sectors for a while which the ONS either didn't pick up or doesn't exist. In the past the ONS has silently adjusted the GVAs a year or so after buggering it up and the YoY figure magically goes up without explanation. I expect it will happen this time as well. The first estimates are always wrong, the second estimate is always wrong and the third estimate is also always wrong. The accurate picture of growth, especially down to sector level, only really becomes clear 5-9 months after the end of the quarter IMO. That's when all the data is in and the headlines are focussed elsewhere.
Completely OT but vaguely connected with the surveying topic discussed earlier. The Environment Agency has put up their LIDAR survey data free to use. Not complete because a lot of areas have not yet been completely surveyed.
One version of it can be found here. Loads of fun.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Good morning all. Surely I'm not alone in spending my entire life considering whether I should be doing something else?
I imagine it's part of the human condition - or at least, for those of us who were never smitten by any particular vocation. I ended up in various computer related shenanigans through a series of happy accidents, blind luck and laziness .
I suspect that a great many people, if not the majority, end up in a job or career by accident, blind luck and if not laziness then certainly procrastination. During my salaried employment days I applied for precisely one job, to become a soldier. Everything after that just sort of happened without me really doing anything let alone trying to steer my life in a particular direction.
Some people are very lucky in that they have a massive talent which sets the direction for their life and no other career is possible. Such people are very rare, though. Then there are a slightly larger group who from an early age have a vocation that they really want to follow, I think we have a couple on this site, they are equally blessed. Finally, there are those who are driven by life-goals (make my first million by the time I am 25, become Prime Minister and so on), in my experience such people are cursed. The majority of them end up frustrated and those that do achieve their goals are left wondering what it was all for. Only for a very few do the rewards of achievement equal fulfillment.
No, as I sit here in my study, comfortably but not well off, looking out the silver birch tree we planted when we first moved in and sipping my morning whisky, I can look back on a career which was full of fun (very few days at work didn't include at least one damn good belly laugh) and which, maybe just maybe, in the great scheme of things did some good.
On the whole I think that going with the flow produces a better outcome.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
It's a tax raising policy - a friendless sector ripe for squeezing.
You could argue that BTL landlords are providing a public service. It was, after all, uncommon to own one's own house until after WWII, and the "ownership is good, renting is bad" mantra really started under Thatcher. Both sets of my grandparents rented, as did my father-in-law until shortly before his retirement, My parents owned but largely because they could, and there wasn't much supply of rented properties where we lived. Both my sister and I, when we set up own homes with our respective spouses, rented at least at first.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Good morning all. Surely I'm not alone in spending my entire life considering whether I should be doing something else?
I imagine it's part of the human condition - or at least, for those of us who were never smitten by any particular vocation. I ended up in various computer related shenanigans through a series of happy accidents, blind luck and laziness .
I suspect that a great many people, if not the majority, end up in a job or career by accident, blind luck and if not laziness then certainly procrastination. During my salaried employment days I applied for precisely one job, to become a soldier. Everything after that just sort of happened without me really doing anything let alone trying to steer my life in a particular direction.
Some people are very lucky in that they have a massive talent which sets the direction for their life and no other career is possible. Such people are very rare, though. Then there are a slightly larger group who from an early age have a vocation that they really want to follow, I think we have a couple on this site, they are equally blessed. Finally, there are those who are driven by life-goals (make my first million by the time I am 25, become Prime Minister and so on), in my experience such people are cursed. The majority of them end up frustrated and those that do achieve their goals are left wondering what it was all for. Only for a very few do the rewards of achievement equal fulfillment.
No, as I sit here in my study, comfortably but not well off, looking out the silver birch tree we planted when we first moved in and sipping my morning whisky, I can look back on a career which was full of fun (very few days at work didn't include at least one damn good belly laugh) and which, maybe just maybe, in the great scheme of things did some good.
On the whole I think that going with the flow produces a better outcome.
More on a key driver of politics in the coming years - the end of cheap labour.
I'm not entirely convinced. Software capabilities have grown so rapidly recently, that direct human replacement for some roles may not be far off.
The infrastructure and tooling support for things like machine learning are also increasingly being open sourced (e.g. Google's TensorFlow and Facebook's Torch modules).
It's mix and match. Mainly machines are good at dumb, repatative tasks. This has been broadened so that they can do dumb jobs that require a bit of human input.
McDonalds will be 100% automated at the back end within a very short time - certainly in this country when the minimum wage kicks in. You will have a couple of well paid staff to mind the place, fix the machines, greet the customers etc, rather than 2 dozen running around behind the counter.
This has happened many times over history & claims the end is in sight eg machines replaced lots of jobs in manufacturing in factories, but we still have millions of people in equivalent jobs in other parts of economy. I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.
Something similar to the McDonalds exercise is due to happen to the supply of prescription medicines late this or early next year.
When someone mentions prescription medicines my ears perk up. However, I am not with you, Mr. Cole,. Please would you explain a little - what is going to happen to the supply of prescription medicines?
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
But think of the CGT that will be raised. 200,000 generating £50,000 each in CGT = £10bn.
Of course rents will go up as well.
Time to introduce public flogging for landlords who put up the rents then!
One for PC gamers out there, Dragon's Dogma is coming out on Steam. Easily one of the best RPG style games ever made. Now it can be played with a Dualshock 4 or Xbox 1 controller instead of the cramp inducing DS3. Also in full HD and no slow down. I have already pre-ordered it because it's going to be great and my better half is in NZ until the end of January so I can be anti-social.
Something similar to the McDonalds exercise is due to happen to the supply of prescription medicines late this or early next year.
Indeed. One huge problem is that the governing class did not understand what is (and was) happening).
The rather dim MP I mentioned the other day was utterly convinced there was no British industry, because it had all been destroyed by Fatcher. To him, the idea that people still made stuff in this country was being pro Tory or something. I suppose if you live in central London all your life.... But what about Hamar Acrylic (Bethnal Green Road)?
Anyway.. successive governments have taken the bizarre view that everyone will be an office worker. In fact many of the jobs that have, are and will go are the relatively low skilled general office jobs. Consider the HMRC - the move to change the tax return systems comes from the realisation that virtually all personal returns are for PAYE employees to sort out pension contributions, a bit of interest on bank accounts. A small wedge are people declaring income from a second property (BOO HISS etc). The actual number of people doing a "real" tax return are very small. Automate the collection of tax on interest on bank accounts, wire up the pension plan system a bit better and boom 90% of personal returns go. That will empty office blocks...
One thing that has massively changed in the last 20-30 years is the upskilling, pay and status of so called "trades". Hence the joke about the Duke who hopes his daughter marries someone rich - like a plumber.
What the economy is crying out for are numerate, imaginative people with technical skills. For example, to run a CNC milling machine requires deep theoretical knowledge of materials, instinctive maths, *and* a high level of skill with tools.
It is these kinds of jobs that we are seeing more and more of - brains + technical skills.
The modern educational system is designed to take people with any smattering of academic ability and make sure that they don't get near the grimy handed trades, it seems.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
But think of the CGT that will be raised. 200,000 generating £50,000 each in CGT = £10bn.
Of course rents will go up as well.
Why would rents necessarily go up? The same number of households will be chasing the same number of houses (very crudely). Some will have moved from the rental sector to the owner-occupied sector but if there's no significant change in money availability, supply or demand (or if supply and demand change the same way at the same time), rents shouldn't be much affected.
The key sentence, which contains all the unstated assumptions is the first one: "If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants ...". On what basis, at what price and how funded? Those are the real determinants as to what the knock-on effect would be on rents.
Mr. Max, Dragon's Dogma is a bloody good game. It was a rare impulse buy for me, and although certain aspects were a bit ropey the combat surpassed all expectations. Not a PC gamers, but I second your motion that it's well worth getting.
''Automate the collection of tax on interest on bank accounts, wire up the pension plan system a bit better and boom 90% of personal returns go. That will empty office blocks...''
Absolutely. I have to do a return because I made a lump sum contribution to a pension last year. The pension company claimed relief at the basic rate, but as I earned at the higher rate, I have to claim that back myself.
One for PC gamers out there, Dragon's Dogma is coming out on Steam. Easily one of the best RPG style games ever made. Now it can be played with a Dualshock 4 or Xbox 1 controller instead of the cramp inducing DS3. Also in full HD and no slow down. I have already pre-ordered it because it's going to be great and my better half is in NZ until the end of January so I can be anti-social.
Mr Lama, as I understand it, in the future when a repeat medication is requested it will be authorised by the GP and sent to a dispensing "hub" which may either be the property of one of the big chains or a co-operative of independents. The medicine will then be dispensed and either delivered directly to the patient's address or, if there is a query, to a nominated local pharmacy for collection and advice. Exemption from prescription charges will be dealt with during the "query and advice" stage, except for the likes of us, who are exempt on grounds of age. If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
More on a key driver of politics in the coming years - the end of cheap labour.
I'm not entirely convinced. Software capabilities have grown so rapidly recently, that direct human replacement for some roles may not be far off.
The infrastructure and tooling support for things like machine learning are also increasingly being open sourced (e.g. Google's TensorFlow and Facebook's Torch modules).
It's mix and match. Mainly machines are good at dumb, repatative tasks. This has been broadened so that they can do dumb jobs that require a bit of human input.
McDonalds will be 100% automated at the back end within a very short time - certainly in this country when the minimum wage kicks in. You will have a couple of well paid staff to mind the place, fix the machines, greet the customers etc, rather than 2 dozen running around behind the counter.
This has happened many times over history & claims the end is in sight eg machines replaced lots of jobs in manufacturing in factories, but we still have millions of people in equivalent jobs in other parts of economy. I would say for instance call centres are the 21 century equivalent of the 20 century factory.
I'm clearly not communicating well today. Technology has, thus far, been 'creative destruction'. People make their living in ways that would have been either impossible or incomprehensible even ten years ago- e.g. Twitch streamers or Youtube channel owners (admittedly both niche). I'm not saying that machines will obsolete us all.
However, I am asserting that the link between demographics and wealth creation is going to become more tenuous; companies will be able to earn more with fewer people. How we're going to cope with that will be interesting.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. Yes changes often have people reconsider their position and / or hasten what they might have already planning to do, but it doesn't mean others won't step in their place.
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
Each year a % of BTL landlords will sell some property - often to leave the activity due to retirement or death or low profits. Stamp Duty will suppress purchasing by new entrants and reduce expansion by existing landlords.
I always take these surveys with a massive pinch of salt. We keep hearing 1 in x doctors, teachers, etc etc etc are going to leave and it will mean no teachers, doctors, nurses, etc etc etc. .....
Why does Stamp Duty change mean buy-to-let landlords will sell property and get out. You only pay it when you buy a new one. So at worst it will mean existing landlords don't expand their empires. Of course some will plan to sell urgently in the next couple of months in fear that they will not be able to sell later because of the sudden dearth of buy-to-letters, but 200,000?
I presume misunderstanding of the policy change & BTLers whose plan is to build a larger portfolio in the future.
Alternatively perhaps they see a pattern of bashing BTL landlords in 2 consecutive budgets.
A fat goose to be plucked over.
If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants, it would increase home ownership (which the government seems to think is 'a good thing'), but do nothing for overall housing supply. So other than a tax raising opportunity, what is the point of the policy?
But think of the CGT that will be raised. 200,000 generating £50,000 each in CGT = £10bn.
Of course rents will go up as well.
Why would rents necessarily go up? The same number of households will be chasing the same number of houses (very crudely). Some will have moved from the rental sector to the owner-occupied sector but if there's no significant change in money availability, supply or demand (or if supply and demand change the same way at the same time), rents shouldn't be much affected.
The key sentence, which contains all the unstated assumptions is the first one: "If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants ...". On what basis, at what price and how funded? Those are the real determinants as to what the knock-on effect would be on rents.
These markets are not water tight. Some BTLs sold will not be sold to current renters and some may turn into second homes if the tax/hassle etc has raised the costs levied. Hence why there is the expectation of a small drop in the rental property offered.
I suspect that a great many people, if not the majority, end up in a job or career by accident, blind luck and if not laziness then certainly procrastination. During my salaried employment days I applied for precisely one job, to become a soldier. Everything after that just sort of happened without me really doing anything let alone trying to steer my life in a particular direction.
Some people are very lucky in that they have a massive talent which sets the direction for their life and no other career is possible. Such people are very rare, though. Then there are a slightly larger group who from an early age have a vocation that they really want to follow, I think we have a couple on this site, they are equally blessed. Finally, there are those who are driven by life-goals (make my first million by the time I am 25, become Prime Minister and so on), in my experience such people are cursed. The majority of them end up frustrated and those that do achieve their goals are left wondering what it was all for. Only for a very few do the rewards of achievement equal fulfillment.
No, as I sit here in my study, comfortably but not well off, looking out the silver birch tree we planted when we first moved in and sipping my morning whisky, I can look back on a career which was full of fun (very few days at work didn't include at least one damn good belly laugh) and which, maybe just maybe, in the great scheme of things did some good.
On the whole I think that going with the flow produces a better outcome.
I think you've been lucky. It's odd how one or two events can alter a career and life.
As an example, I really wanted to go into civil engineering (particularly groundworks / tunnelling), but I knew that uncertain health would not let me do the site work I loved.
I used to attend meetings at the Institute of Civil Engineers (by sneaking in!), and one evening I was chatting to a man who was his company's expert on concrete beams. If anyone had a particular difficult beam to design, they'd call on him. He didn't enjoy it, but felt trapped.
As I could not do site work without significant risk of ill health, I too could end up being trapped in an office. And if I was going to be trapped in an office, I might as well go into something that would earn me more money and offer more interesting work. It just so happened I'd been earning a few coins on the side programming, and that's where I headed the very next day after making a few phone calls.
If I hadn't met that man I would have probably completed my degree, got a job in engineering, and hit problems when another bout of immobility hit me a year or two later. That meeting changed my future career and my life.
UK is a top holiday country England for me particularly in the NW and the central bits around the Bristol-Oxford-Norwich axis (no offence to any others) Oh and Scotland and Wales and NI
Dutch tourists seem to love the UK even more than Brits do, and find their way to bits of the country where the Chinese/Japanese/Indian tourist market hasn't really taken off.
Incidentally, for a rural/urban split, here are the 30 largest (ceremonial) counties by area, and the biggest 30 cities (ok, technically Primary Urban Areas).
1 North Yorkshire / London 2 Lincolnshire / Birmingham 3 Cumbria / Manchester 4 Devon / Liverpool 5 Norfolk / Leeds 6 Northumberland / Sheffield 7 Somerset / Teesside 8 Suffolk / Bristol 9 Hampshire / Bournemouth and Poole 10 Kent / Stoke-on-Trent 11 Essex / Leicester 12 Cornwall / Wirral 13 Shropshire / Coventry 14 Wiltshire / Nottingham 15 Cambridgeshire / Bradford 16 Gloucestershire / Newcastle 17 Lancashire / Bolton 18 Durham / Brighton and Hove 19 Staffordshire / Plymouth 20 Dorset / Hull 21 Derbyshire / Preston 22 Oxfordshire / Derby 23 East Riding of Yorkshire / Aldershot and Farnborough 24 Northamptonshire / Southampton 25 Cheshire / Wigan 26 Herefordshire / Barnsley 27 Nottinghamshire / Portsmouth 28 Leicestershire / Luton 29 West Yorkshire / York 30 West Sussex / Northampton
I think it must be very rare to have explored, say, 20 of the top 30 from both lists.
PUAs 31-50 include places around the size of Milton Keynes, Southend, Ipswich, Reading, Oxford, Blackpool or Norwich, some of which are more worth a visit than places that made it into the top 30.
I was going to say.. The largest city in the UK is the City of Carlisle.
Not only have I visited (explored?) all those places bar Barnsley, I've walked in them. I've also visited many of their highest natural points ...
That's most impressive. But what have you been missing out on in Barnsley?
Ok, who has the better sources? @PickardJE: Labour reshuffle to begin as early as this afternoon... @georgeeaton: Corbyn will decide reshuffle moves tonight, Labour source tells me.
I have always thought Pickard was very friendly with Labour.
Technology has, thus far, been 'creative destruction'. People make their living in ways that would have been either impossible or incomprehensible even ten years ago- e.g. Twitch streamers or Youtube channel owners (admittedly both niche). I'm not saying that machines will obsolete us all.
However, I am asserting that the link between demographics and wealth creation is going to become more tenuous; companies will be able to earn more with fewer people. How we're going to cope with that will be interesting.
Not sure I agree. Mechanization of factories was "destructive" and allowed owners to earn more with fewer people. Also, I am less positive about ML / AI. There is no doubt improvements and so very interesting demos, but it is still miles off taking every bodies jobs.
And with so many technical developments it opens up a new area where jobs are required e.g. This massive explosion in the internet has created huge new of jobs, everything from maintaining the structure e.g. data centres to creative jobs making content.
Mr Lama, as I understand it, in the future when a repeat medication is requested it will be authorised by the GP and sent to a dispensing "hub" which may either be the property of one of the big chains or a co-operative of independents. The medicine will then be dispensed and either delivered directly to the patient's address or, if there is a query, to a nominated local pharmacy for collection and advice. Exemption from prescription charges will be dealt with during the "query and advice" stage, except for the likes of us, who are exempt on grounds of age. If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
Thanks, Mr. C. I think the present system of prescribing and dispensing medicines works very well and am surprised to see that someone wants to change it, let alone add complexity and hence cost.
UK is a top holiday country England for me particularly in the NW and the central bits around the Bristol-Oxford-Norwich axis (no offence to any others) Oh and Scotland and Wales and NI
Dutch tourists seem to love the UK even more than Brits do, and find their way to bits of the country where the Chinese/Japanese/Indian tourist market hasn't really taken off.
Incidentally, for a rural/urban split, here are the 30 largest (ceremonial) counties by area, and the biggest 30 cities (ok, technically Primary Urban Areas).
1 North Yorkshire / London 2 Lincolnshire / Birmingham 3 Cumbria / Manchester 4 Devon / Liverpool 5 Norfolk / Leeds 6 Northumberland / Sheffield 7 Somerset / Teesside 8 Suffolk / Bristol 9 Hampshire / Bournemouth and Poole 10 Kent / Stoke-on-Trent 11 Essex / Leicester 12 Cornwall / Wirral 13 Shropshire / Coventry 14 Wiltshire / Nottingham 15 Cambridgeshire / Bradford 16 Gloucestershire / Newcastle 17 Lancashire / Bolton 18 Durham / Brighton and Hove 19 Staffordshire / Plymouth 20 Dorset / Hull 21 Derbyshire / Preston 22 Oxfordshire / Derby 23 East Riding of Yorkshire / Aldershot and Farnborough 24 Northamptonshire / Southampton 25 Cheshire / Wigan 26 Herefordshire / Barnsley 27 Nottinghamshire / Portsmouth 28 Leicestershire / Luton 29 West Yorkshire / York 30 West Sussex / Northampton
I think it must be very rare to have explored, say, 20 of the top 30 from both lists.
PUAs 31-50 include places around the size of Milton Keynes, Southend, Ipswich, Reading, Oxford, Blackpool or Norwich, some of which are more worth a visit than places that made it into the top 30.
I was going to say.. The largest city in the UK is the City of Carlisle.
Not only have I visited (explored?) all those places bar Barnsley, I've walked in them. I've also visited many of their highest natural points ...
That's most impressive. But what have you been missing out on in Barnsley?
Mr Lama, as I understand it, in the future when a repeat medication is requested it will be authorised by the GP and sent to a dispensing "hub" which may either be the property of one of the big chains or a co-operative of independents. The medicine will then be dispensed and either delivered directly to the patient's address or, if there is a query, to a nominated local pharmacy for collection and advice. Exemption from prescription charges will be dealt with during the "query and advice" stage, except for the likes of us, who are exempt on grounds of age. If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
Thanks, Mr. C. I think the present system of prescribing and dispensing medicines works very well and am surprised to see that someone wants to change it, let alone add complexity and hence cost.
Well, the repeat prescription process seems quite cumbersome (I recently had my first encounter with it - a life milestone of sorts). I have been told about this change and (perhaps naively) assumed it would make things simpler for the patient at least.
What the economy is crying out for are numerate, imaginative people with technical skills. For example, to run a CNC milling machine requires deep theoretical knowledge of materials, instinctive maths, *and* a high level of skill with tools.
Slightly scary aside, I saw the other day that one company in the US is now selling mobile CNC milling machines for DIY enthusiasts which are specifically designed to be used for making AR45 Assault rifles as a means of getting round Government controls.
Mr Lama, as I understand it, in the future when a repeat medication is requested it will be authorised by the GP and sent to a dispensing "hub" which may either be the property of one of the big chains or a co-operative of independents. The medicine will then be dispensed and either delivered directly to the patient's address or, if there is a query, to a nominated local pharmacy for collection and advice. Exemption from prescription charges will be dealt with during the "query and advice" stage, except for the likes of us, who are exempt on grounds of age. If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
Thanks, Mr. C. I think the present system of prescribing and dispensing medicines works very well and am surprised to see that someone wants to change it, let alone add complexity and hence cost.
Well, the repeat prescription process seems quite cumbersome (I recently had my first encounter with it - a life milestone of sorts). I have been told about this change and (perhaps naively) assumed it would make things simpler for the patient at least.
It is a bit cumbersome first time, but if your GP has a clued up system, you can normally request medication a few days before you need it, and in my case, pick it up from the friendly local pharmacist a couple of days later.
It also appears that the government is anxious to reduce the number of pharmacies especially in urban areas, where in some places for historical reasons there are three, four of five pharmacies clustered round a large GP practice.
Mr Lama, as I understand it, in the future when a repeat medication is requested it will be authorised by the GP and sent to a dispensing "hub" which may either be the property of one of the big chains or a co-operative of independents. The medicine will then be dispensed and either delivered directly to the patient's address or, if there is a query, to a nominated local pharmacy for collection and advice. Exemption from prescription charges will be dealt with during the "query and advice" stage, except for the likes of us, who are exempt on grounds of age. If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
Thanks, Mr. C. I think the present system of prescribing and dispensing medicines works very well and am surprised to see that someone wants to change it, let alone add complexity and hence cost.
Well, the repeat prescription process seems quite cumbersome (I recently had my first encounter with it - a life milestone of sorts). I have been told about this change and (perhaps naively) assumed it would make things simpler for the patient at least.
Yes getting into the repeat prescription is business does seem to be a life milestone, talking to my local pharmacist, it would seem that just about the entire population of the over 50's in my village is on regular medication of some sort.
However, I am a bit confused as to why you think the repeat prescription process is cumbersome. My village pharmacist (a branch of Lloyds) does it all for me. They hang on to the repeat portion of the prescription form and send it to the quacks at the correct time. I just pop in to the pharmacy to pick up the next two months supply and sign the chit saying I want the same next time around. Basically its frictionless. I still have to go and see the GP to satisfy him I still need the medication but as I have to go every few months for blood tests etc anyway that is no big deal.
Why we need a dispensing hub, as described by Mr. Cole, I don't know. Home deliveries will also be a pain in the arse because I will have to make sure that I am home at the right time and all that palaver (being in for Amazon deliveries is bad enough). What happens when I am not at home or, like Amazon Logistics they do a hit and run (ring the bell, no one comes to the door in thirty seconds they are off), when I have only a day or two's supply left. The new system sounds like a scheme dreamt up by some idiot with a MBA who does not understand the world in which his scheme has to work.
One for PC gamers out there, Dragon's Dogma is coming out on Steam. Easily one of the best RPG style games ever made. Now it can be played with a Dualshock 4 or Xbox 1 controller instead of the cramp inducing DS3. Also in full HD and no slow down. I have already pre-ordered it because it's going to be great and my better half is in NZ until the end of January so I can be anti-social.
I'll still be playing through Fallout 4
70 hours and counting for me - an early sample compared to some.
Comments
The suggestion was that people should incorporate. Unfortunately the Stamp Duty change means that now carries a surcharge (the 3%), equivalent to 6-12 months rent, on the first 15 properties. That is irrational as a decision unless you are a really long term investor - 7-10 years - or you are in a booming market.
The easy way is to sell up and take 5 years abroad in certain places to avoid the CGT liability. If the CGT liability is since say 2000 on 30 or 40 properties in London you can see why LLs would do it.
Osbo's extra stamp duty will make it harder for people not committed to long term LL-ing, which will deter neophytes diversifying their pensions.
I wonder if spread companies will do one on the % of home-owners ?
Even when cost cutting the BBC manage to waste money on completely pointless things.....
Its an interesting debate, certainly. Look at the 1930s, for instance. Labour intensive industrues, Far fewer women in the workforce, and yet raging unemployment.
For me, the argument that the the rich are too rich relative to the rest of us is by far the best argument the left has.
If that were to be reversed, and by the market, the last possible reason for voting for a left wing party goes.
https://aseasyasridingabike.wordpress.com/2014/12/17/natural-character/
Mr. M, I wonder that, but it's mostly due to money worries (I haven't released a large size story since late 2013, although there is stuff ahead in the near future).
I do enjoy it a lot (the hell of proofreading aside).
Because its amazing how owning a home can affect one's political outlook...???
I wonder how many of a typical selection of 200,000 tenants can afford, or obtain a mortgage, to buy the houses they live in?
For many the reason they are renting is because they are not in a position to buy and the weaker ones would suffer.
I'm tempted by the analogy with Mrs Merkel's policy making sure (hopefully unintentionally) that the stronger refugees make it to Germany because the weaker ones sink rather than swim.
Of course rents will go up as well.
#Deutschland83 & the Nato exercises: declassified US papers suggest plot truer 2 history than you might have thought https://t.co/ri4bdffaPg
One version of it can be found here. Loads of fun.
https://houseprices.io/lab/lidar/map
This is why the public is extremely sceptical of being told that renegotiation is impossible because so much of what the EU does is cast in stone.
It's total boll*cks. Cornerstones turn to polystyrene when it suits. Everything is up for grabs.
Some people are very lucky in that they have a massive talent which sets the direction for their life and no other career is possible. Such people are very rare, though. Then there are a slightly larger group who from an early age have a vocation that they really want to follow, I think we have a couple on this site, they are equally blessed. Finally, there are those who are driven by life-goals (make my first million by the time I am 25, become Prime Minister and so on), in my experience such people are cursed. The majority of them end up frustrated and those that do achieve their goals are left wondering what it was all for. Only for a very few do the rewards of achievement equal fulfillment.
No, as I sit here in my study, comfortably but not well off, looking out the silver birch tree we planted when we first moved in and sipping my morning whisky, I can look back on a career which was full of fun (very few days at work didn't include at least one damn good belly laugh) and which, maybe just maybe, in the great scheme of things did some good.
On the whole I think that going with the flow produces a better outcome.
Labour sources tell me they expect a shadow cabinet reshuffle to start this afternoon.
Time to grab the popcorn.
The rather dim MP I mentioned the other day was utterly convinced there was no British industry, because it had all been destroyed by Fatcher. To him, the idea that people still made stuff in this country was being pro Tory or something. I suppose if you live in central London all your life.... But what about Hamar Acrylic (Bethnal Green Road)?
Anyway.. successive governments have taken the bizarre view that everyone will be an office worker. In fact many of the jobs that have, are and will go are the relatively low skilled general office jobs. Consider the HMRC - the move to change the tax return systems comes from the realisation that virtually all personal returns are for PAYE employees to sort out pension contributions, a bit of interest on bank accounts. A small wedge are people declaring income from a second property (BOO HISS etc). The actual number of people doing a "real" tax return are very small. Automate the collection of tax on interest on bank accounts, wire up the pension plan system a bit better and boom 90% of personal returns go. That will empty office blocks...
One thing that has massively changed in the last 20-30 years is the upskilling, pay and status of so called "trades". Hence the joke about the Duke who hopes his daughter marries someone rich - like a plumber.
What the economy is crying out for are numerate, imaginative people with technical skills. For example, to run a CNC milling machine requires deep theoretical knowledge of materials, instinctive maths, *and* a high level of skill with tools.
It is these kinds of jobs that we are seeing more and more of - brains + technical skills.
The modern educational system is designed to take people with any smattering of academic ability and make sure that they don't get near the grimy handed trades, it seems.
The key sentence, which contains all the unstated assumptions is the first one: "If 200,000 BTL properties were to be sold to their tenants ...". On what basis, at what price and how funded? Those are the real determinants as to what the knock-on effect would be on rents.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/review-dragons-dogma.html
Edited extra bit: you don't happen to know whether XCOM 2 will eventually migrate to the PS4, do you?
@PickardJE: Labour reshuffle to begin as early as this afternoon...
@georgeeaton: Corbyn will decide reshuffle moves tonight, Labour source tells me.
Absolutely. I have to do a return because I made a lump sum contribution to a pension last year. The pension company claimed relief at the basic rate, but as I earned at the higher rate, I have to claim that back myself.
Which reminds me, I only have month left...
If the medication is urgent, or for immediate treatment, then a prescrption will be issued. I'm not entirely sure of all the details but my former colleagues are very exercised about it.
However, I am asserting that the link between demographics and wealth creation is going to become more tenuous; companies will be able to earn more with fewer people. How we're going to cope with that will be interesting.
As an example, I really wanted to go into civil engineering (particularly groundworks / tunnelling), but I knew that uncertain health would not let me do the site work I loved.
I used to attend meetings at the Institute of Civil Engineers (by sneaking in!), and one evening I was chatting to a man who was his company's expert on concrete beams. If anyone had a particular difficult beam to design, they'd call on him. He didn't enjoy it, but felt trapped.
As I could not do site work without significant risk of ill health, I too could end up being trapped in an office. And if I was going to be trapped in an office, I might as well go into something that would earn me more money and offer more interesting work. It just so happened I'd been earning a few coins on the side programming, and that's where I headed the very next day after making a few phone calls.
If I hadn't met that man I would have probably completed my degree, got a job in engineering, and hit problems when another bout of immobility hit me a year or two later. That meeting changed my future career and my life.
New Thread New Thread
And with so many technical developments it opens up a new area where jobs are required e.g. This massive explosion in the internet has created huge new of jobs, everything from maintaining the structure e.g. data centres to creative jobs making content.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/01/04/bahrain-severs-diplomatic-ties-with-iran-5599518/
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2689843/3d-vendor-sells-1500-part-to-make-metal-guns.html
It also appears that the government is anxious to reduce the number of pharmacies especially in urban areas, where in some places for historical reasons there are three, four of five pharmacies clustered round a large GP practice.
Via OED
Dutch has contributed many words to English including yacht, easel, cookie, and freight. #bablafact
However, I am a bit confused as to why you think the repeat prescription process is cumbersome. My village pharmacist (a branch of Lloyds) does it all for me. They hang on to the repeat portion of the prescription form and send it to the quacks at the correct time. I just pop in to the pharmacy to pick up the next two months supply and sign the chit saying I want the same next time around. Basically its frictionless. I still have to go and see the GP to satisfy him I still need the medication but as I have to go every few months for blood tests etc anyway that is no big deal.
Why we need a dispensing hub, as described by Mr. Cole, I don't know. Home deliveries will also be a pain in the arse because I will have to make sure that I am home at the right time and all that palaver (being in for Amazon deliveries is bad enough). What happens when I am not at home or, like Amazon Logistics they do a hit and run (ring the bell, no one comes to the door in thirty seconds they are off), when I have only a day or two's supply left. The new system sounds like a scheme dreamt up by some idiot with a MBA who does not understand the world in which his scheme has to work.
Danczuk protest just took a nasty turn. He walked (quickly) back to his office after being confronted by two men https://t.co/O8cMqUO48O
Is there a better way of presenting political polling? https://t.co/OOy4IDcZO6 @JohnRentoul @MSmithsonPB @IpsosMORI https://t.co/Tj9R2lKaGr
All of Corbyn's top aides are gathering with him for 2pm crunch meeting re reshuffle. He seems to have begun New Year in a jolly mood.