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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters end of year podcast. Looking ahead t

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    edited December 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Yes but the mean obviously includes a few very high-earners. The median would be more useful.

    HYUFD said:

    MP_SE said:

    AndyJS said:

    Flight from London increasing according to this article:

    "The number of people selling up and moving out of London rose by two-thirds in 2015, figures showed on Saturday, as homeowners cashed in on the capital’s high house prices or escaped to more affordable parts of the country.



    Almost nine out of 10 bought elsewhere in the south of England, but the Midlands saw a 165% increase in the number of Londoners moving into the area."


    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/26/huge-leap-property-number-moving-out-london-2015

    Sorry, but who is BUYING these homes out of which "ethnic" Londoners are moving? And how do they afford them?
    Foreigners. They see it as a good solid safe investment.
    Do you mean immigrants?
    undoubtedly is being purchased by very wealthy people from overseas, though not necessary immigrants. Some are buying it as a safe investment, some are buying it for other reasons as well (one family I know sold their London house for £2m to a rich Russian who wanted to buy it for his cleaner to live in). However, it would seem unlikely to me that there are enough oligarchs and stinking rich Chinese trying to off-shore their assets to and such like to buy up all the property that must be coming on to the market. Who else is buying into a market in which the average ordinary house changes hands for nearly half a million?
    Middle class parents helping their children get a foot on the property ladder. I know an awful lot of people who have only been able to purchase their first home in London thanks to a considerable handout from mummy and daddy.
    The mean London salary is almost £50,000, so if you have a couple with both earning the average London wage and they get a mortgage of 5 times household income you get to half a million. However many London workers buy in Outer London or the Home Counties where they get more bang for their buck as house prices are almost half the level of inner London
    Yes but remember 50.4% of Londonders, just over half of the city's residents rent, a significantly higher proportion than the country as a whole, so those who buy will tend to be above average earners in London anyway so in terms of identifying buyers the mean is quite useful
    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/a-century-of-home-ownership-and-renting-in-england-and-wales/short-story-on-housing.html
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,342
    Surely the answer to the puzzle is that there are plenty of people who have already built a considerable equity cushion from house price inflation over the years. If you bought your house for £400k and it is now worth £700k (a typical rise for the last 15 years in London) then trading up to £1m isn't that hard if you've been paying down the mortgage.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218

    Surely the answer to the puzzle is that there are plenty of people who have already built a considerable equity cushion from house price inflation over the years. If you bought your house for £400k and it is now worth £700k (a typical rise for the last 15 years in London) then trading up to £1m isn't that hard if you've been paying down the mortgage.

    Indeed but remember too that only 49.6% of Londoners now own a property or have a mortgage, over 50% now rent while only 37% of Britons as a whole are renting, therefore it is only the rich or above average earners who are property owners in London while the average Briton elsewhere in the country is still, just about, able to own their own home
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