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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s one big hope is that the Tories will tear themselves

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    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'
    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.
    Very true.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    But unlike the Labour party, it's the MPs that matter.
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    Patrick said:

    The Hague article in the Telegraph is titled: 'If we leave the EU it will break up the UK and destabilise Europe - I'm in.'

    My own view is: ''If we leave the EU it will break up the UK and destabilise Europe - I'm out.'

    A perhaps trite way of pointing out that the 'negatives' many Inners like to parade are in fact features not bugs for many others of us.

    I found Hague's craven fear of the Nat reaction especially contemptible.
    The crapped pants of the fortnight leading up to 18/09/14 have evidently left their mark.
    Sadly, the nats, were too inept to bring home a yes vote. Even against what they loudly proclaim to have been crap opposition. God knows what a trouncing they would have received if they been up against anybody who was half decent.
    A little piqued, are we?

    Since nobody half decent existed, that's not even a hypotheses.
    Very piqued, I wanted you to win.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
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    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    What about members though. I believe it is about 70% for Out amongst actual members.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    Polling showed a hung parliament or small Labour majority.....
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TGOHF said:

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    But unlike the Labour party, it's the MPs that matter.
    They look to be shaping up fairly evenly too, perhaps with Remain having the edge.

    Though I would dispute your notion. This is a plebiscite not a parliamentary vote.

    I see about a 30% core Leave vote (Kippers and half the Tories) so a long way to go to 50% +1.
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    isam said:
    A change of 0.1% in a guesstimate/forecast is a problem????
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    It would be hard for the Leavers to marshall an argument against the EU doing things that we consider outrageous should we Leave. After all that is what Leave want us to sign up for: no influence at all on policy making on our continent.

    You are increasingly sounding like someone whom suffers from Attention-Seeking-Disorder: Please desist....
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    TGOHF said:

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    But unlike the Labour party, it's the MPs that matter.
    They look to be shaping up fairly evenly too, perhaps with Remain having the edge.

    Though I would dispute your notion. This is a plebiscite not a parliamentary vote.

    I see about a 30% core Leave vote (Kippers and half the Tories) so a long way to go to 50% +1.
    There is probably only about a 20% core Remain vote, though. So it comes down to how many of the other 50% can be persuaded to vote,
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    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    It would be nice if the EU could see fit to extend the same courtesy to those of us who manage recreation-result-dependent financial services firms. Instead they have protected various governmental monopolies who offer terrible value products, in some cases operating purely on a pooling with commission basis.
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    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    It would be nice if the EU could see fit to extend the same courtesy to those of us who manage recreation-result-dependent financial services firms. Instead they have protected various governmental monopolies who offer terrible value products, in some cases operating purely on a pooling with commission basis.
    Am I being dim: is a "recreation-result-dependent financial services firm" another way of saying "bookmaker"?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    TGOHF said:

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    But unlike the Labour party, it's the MPs that matter.
    They look to be shaping up fairly evenly too, perhaps with Remain having the edge.

    Though I would dispute your notion. This is a plebiscite not a parliamentary vote.

    I see about a 30% core Leave vote (Kippers and half the Tories) so a long way to go to 50% +1.
    You may well be right, but your logic is wonky because of differential turnout. If 100% of the committed core leave vote turns out, and most of the rest of the population can't be bothered and less than half of it turns out, then leave have it in the bag.

    In the current context the smart move for leave would be to bore the pants off the floating voter and suggest to them that there is nothing to see and it's safe to stay at home. Come to think about it, the current bumbling of the leave campaign and the gloating from the Remain campaign might have just that effect.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Am I being dim: is a "recreation-result-dependent financial services firm" another way of saying "bookmaker"?

    :)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?''

    How dare you talk about a woman's appearance! you need to be sent for re-education.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,669
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    I'm happy to take your point, but that's one area. I don't think the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies is widely disputed even by its fans.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited December 2015
    Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum. So people who have been banging on about Europe for a generation [ like many here ] will suddenly accept a 51-49 result particularly when their Prime Minister votes to REMAIN as he no doubt will.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Pong said:

    Incidentally there's a gift for Leave on the front page of The Times this morning, 55,000 EU officials are to be given a christmas bonus.

    I'm sure we all agree that's money well spent and that a bonus for these essential workers should be prioritised over spending on heath care, provision for refugees and aid for the flood victims in Carlisle.

    55,000 people, the size of a provincial town, and otherwise rational people will be voting to remain part of it. I'm hoping the Inners on here will attempt to justify this criminal waste of taxpayer's money.

    I dunno. I, like 99.75% of the population neither buy the times or subscribe, so I can't actually read the article. But from the paragraph an a half I get for free, I can just about make out that the EU has 55,000 staff and they get paid at Christmas. And that they got a 2.4% pay rise this year.

    If that's all there is, it'll enrage a few senile kippers while everyone else just shrugs their shoulders.

    Is your expectation that the translators & whatever shouldn't get paid at christmas? Or is it the 2.4% payrise that is so outrageous?
    "A few senile kippers".

    For somebody who writes such lucid articles your level of debate rarely rises above that of a teenager which I find surprising. I'm reasonably sure the front page of the The Times isn't targeting "a few senile kippers", but well done, you crowbarred it in.

    The 2.4% was paid as a lump sum, it amounted to £74m, you clearly consider it money well spent, I don't, for reasons I've already pointed out.

    2.4% bonus paid as a lump sum is quite modest. Many Brits will get similar ones, whether working in the city or in John Lewis.

    Considering the size of its institutions and budget, the euro-civil service is a very reasonable size.
    If the EU is such a reasonable size, you have to wonder why the EU Commission has gone to great lengths to play down the total number of people working for the EU. The true figure is not quite the 20,000 they claim, it is in fact closer to 170,000.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    taffys said:

    ''Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?''

    How dare you talk about a woman's appearance! you need to be sent for re-education.

    I showed it to Mrs Indigo, who being safe from accusations of sexism suggested that it appeared to have been coiffured with a knife and fork ;)
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,669

    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?

    It's an atheist anti-consumerist hairdo.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    It would be nice if the EU could see fit to extend the same courtesy to those of us who manage recreation-result-dependent financial services firms. Instead they have protected various governmental monopolies who offer terrible value products, in some cases operating purely on a pooling with commission basis.
    Ending restrictions on UK bookies in Europe should be a core part of Camerons renegotiation. It could swing PB behind Remain...
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,669

    TGOHF said:

    runnymede said:

    'Europhilia in the Conservative party is dying out.'

    Overt Europhilia is now limited to a few superannuated characters. But we still have a more covert kind of EU support among 'court' Tories.

    This version wishes to perpetuate the myth that the UK can be 'In Europe but not run by Europe' (remember that?). In reality what it boils down to is senior politicians and civil servants desperately wanting to remain at the 'top table' attending summits and taking selfies etc.

    In many ways this latter form of Europhilia is more dishonest than that practised by Heseltine etc. and it is also less honourable as it is mostly about self-importance and self-advancement.

    The polling shows Conservative supporters being fairly equally divided between Leave and Remain.
    But unlike the Labour party, it's the MPs that matter.
    They look to be shaping up fairly evenly too, perhaps with Remain having the edge.

    Though I would dispute your notion. This is a plebiscite not a parliamentary vote.

    I see about a 30% core Leave vote (Kippers and half the Tories) so a long way to go to 50% +1.
    You're confusing issues - this was about Europhilia within the Tory party, where TGOHF's argument is that it will die out and the parliamentary party will elect a eurosceptic. It wasn't about the referendum.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum.''

    To be fair, I don;t think any tory here really disputes the notion that the party is split on Europe, and has been for decades.

    The nature of the split, however, is different. Its Dave and the tory voters versus the tory party and a big majority of the MPs.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited December 2015

    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?

    The jacket/top is even worse.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum. So people who have been banging on about Europe for a generation [ like many here ] will suddenly accept a 51-49 result particularly when their Prime Minister votes to REMAIN as he no doubt will.

    No, and the resulting tidal wave of (bad) blood in the Tory party is going to be big enough to sink a few little boats like Osborne's leadership ambitions.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited December 2015

    isam said:
    A change of 0.1% in a guesstimate/forecast is a problem????
    Much worse to come as I have been posting here since October. We sell only to manufacturing industry and a little bit to Utilities. Q1 , we grew over 10%, Q2 = 0%, Q3=3%, Q4 = -12% [ each month has been below -10% ].

    The figures are even worse than it shows because our number of buying customers have actually increased by 2.5% !!!!

    Manufacturing, particularly those involved in exports, is in big trouble !
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    The crapped pants of the fortnight leading up to 18/09/14 have evidently left their mark.

    ThUD:

    I suggest that you are still 'licking-it-up'. Only in a 'tongue-in-check' way of-course...!

    :blush:
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,787
    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    edited December 2015

    rcs1000 said:

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.

    I'm happy to take your point, but that's one area. I don't think the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies is widely disputed even by its fans.
    I've started four companies: PythonAnywhere, Genius Sports Group, Crowdscores, and Arete Research.

    (Each of which is seriously awesome: and if you need live score data, a Python Platform as a Service, back-end technology for a bookmaker, or investment research, you know where to get them!)

    Of these, we have been touched by EU bureaucracy exactly one occasion, although that was quite a seriously negative, that cost quite a lot of time and effort to sort out.

    If you don't sell physical products, then the burden of regulation in the UK - whether from the UK government or the EU - is pretty light. You do annual returns for Companies House in the UK; and you do VAT returns and taxations stuff for the HMRC. That is literally it, as far as regulation goes.
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    surbiton said:

    isam said:
    A change of 0.1% in a guesstimate/forecast is a problem????
    Much worse to come as I have been posting here since October. We sell only to manufacturing industry and a little bit to Utilities. Q1 , we grew over 10%, Q2 = 0%, Q3=3%, Q4 = -12% [ each month has been below -10% ].

    Manufacturing, particularly those involved in exports, is in big trouble !
    Have you considered making something people want to buy?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    taffys said:

    ''Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum.''

    To be fair, I don;t think any tory here really disputes the notion that the party is split on Europe, and has been for decades.

    The nature of the split, however, is different. Its Dave and the tory voters versus the tory party and a big majority of the MPs.

    Looking at the EU ref polls, the OUT is somewhere between 45 and 50% at the moment, if we assume that 15% of those are kippers, the other 30-35% come from other parties, if they aren't lefties, then that is almost all the Tory vote at the last election.... or a lot of Labourites are for OUT despite that their MPs might think.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''or a lot of Labourites are for OUT despite that their MPs might think. ''

    Not sure. I suspect a healthy majority of Brits would be content with something in between what Dave is proposing and a full out.

    How that translates into what will happen politically, I don;t know. I have a feeling that we may see something like the Scottish referendum ie everything going smoothly for remain until the final few weeks - when the polls start to turn to out.

    That will trigger a desperate scrabbling by the establishment, with further concessions (real or imagined), promised.
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    Atheism and Christmas are entirely compatible, unless you're a trying to get hits on a website by writing provocatively demented nonsense.

    In case anyone missed it, do enjoy a free festive story, by me.
    Sir Edric and the Stolen Sherry:
    http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/free-stories.html
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is this new news? CNN poll

    BREAKING: New @cnn poll shows @realDonaldTrump w/ giant lead. #ceiling? https://t.co/LPH66x2Efe
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
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    Have you considered making something people want to buy?

    :gossip:

    Rumour has it that Slubitum works for an off-shoot of a German Automotive manufactuer. Not solid evidence of anything though....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    I just sent you an email
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.

    Sachin Tendulkar is - apparently - well informed in tax-allowances and wind-farms. Not sure the UK got there first though....
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    William Hill aren't in the habit of giving away Christmas presents if anyone fancies the 16-1 about the 2 Hilarys.Unless the membership of the Labour party changes,Benn is a non-starter.With regard to Mrs Clinton,I still think the amount of people who are feeling the Bern,makes backing Democrat at 8-11 the better bet.Rubio will not get the 35% Hispanic vote he needs and the demographics across the whole country mean current GOP cannot win.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Rubio will not get the 35% Hispanic vote he needs and the demographics across the whole country mean current GOP cannot win.''

    In that case, why are they bothering to stand?
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.

    I'm happy to take your point, but that's one area. I don't think the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies is widely disputed even by its fans.
    I've started four companies: PythonAnywhere, Genius Sports Group, Crowdscores, and Arete Research.

    (Each of which is seriously awesome: and if you need live score data, a Python Platform as a Service, back-end technology for a bookmaker, or investment research, you know where to get them!)

    Of these, we have been touched by EU bureaucracy exactly one occasion, although that was quite a seriously negative, that cost quite a lot of time and effort to sort out.

    If you don't sell physical products, then the burden of regulation in the UK - whether from the UK government or the EU - is pretty light. You do annual returns for Companies House in the UK; and you do VAT returns and taxations stuff for the HMRC. That is literally it, as far as regulation goes.
    And we would also re-invent alot of it anyway. In my area of work we would clearly have Environmental Impact Regulations, procurement guidelines and competition policy. In the latter case the EU can probably be more trusted than national Governments to take on large multi-nationals and stop support of national champions and barriers to entry.

    I suspect a substantial part of parliamentary business on exit would be amending SIs to remove references to EU laws but leaving the rest of them substantially intact.
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    surbiton said:

    isam said:
    A change of 0.1% in a guesstimate/forecast is a problem????
    Much worse to come as I have been posting here since October. We sell only to manufacturing industry and a little bit to Utilities. Q1 , we grew over 10%, Q2 = 0%, Q3=3%, Q4 = -12% [ each month has been below -10% ].

    The figures are even worse than it shows because our number of buying customers have actually increased by 2.5% !!!!

    Manufacturing, particularly those involved in exports, is in big trouble !
    What do you make?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Tom said:

    I suspect a substantial part of parliamentary business on exit would be amending SIs to remove references to EU laws but leaving the rest of them substantially intact

    The most useful change I would think would be so that EU exports didn't have to comply with both EU standards and those of the target market. Having to apply both EU and say Japanese standards must put us at a distinct competitive disadvantage compared to non-EU countries who can comply only with the Japanese standards, saving them at the least one set of paperwork if not being able to trim requirements as well. Having to apply EU standards to each countries domestic market is rather an imposition as well.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,159
    edited December 2015

    rcs1000 said:



    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.

    I'm happy to take your point, but that's one area. I don't think the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies is widely disputed even by its fans.
    You think wrong...:-)

    I once saw a Telegraph article that blamed the EU for the capsizing of the Costa Concordia. I parodied this stance as "Something has happened: quick, let's blame the EU". Simply put, the EU has become an Universal Villain: everything that exists or happens is blamed on it.

    Your statement "...the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies..." presupposes that a) there has been a large increase in regulatory burden, b) it's caused by membership of the EU, c) it will disappear on LEAVE.

    I can believe in the first part (HR departments are larger now than, say 1980?), although I'd like to see it quantified. But the second and third parts? Not so much. I know it's like swearing in church, but (whisper it) it may just be possible that the regs were driven by/agreed by the UK and will not in fact be removed post-LEAVE.

    Remember the "bonfire of the quangos" that never happened?

    [EDIT: unfuck HTML]
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    viewcode said:


    [EDIT: unfuck HTML]

    He will make an excellent DROID!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    It gets funnier

    SoMuchGuardian
    #WarOnChristmas #GuardianScrooges https://t.co/lga6T2syeO

    #WarOnChristmas #GuardianScrooges https://t.co/lga6T2syeO
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    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?

    It's an atheist anti-consumerist hairdo.
    A humbug walks into a "bah"....
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,010
    edited December 2015
    Indigo said:

    taffys said:

    ''Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum.''
    .

    Looking at the EU ref polls, the OUT is somewhere between 45 and 50% at the moment, if we assume that 15% of those are kippers, the other 30-35% come from other parties, if they aren't lefties, then that is almost all the Tory vote at the last election.... or a lot of Labourites are for OUT despite that their MPs might think.
    The recent Ashcroft poll suggests the following:

    LEAVERS
    "Nothing to lose" Old, C2DE
    8% Con, 4% Lab, 8% UKIP (of population)

    "Global Britain" Younger, ABC1
    7% Con, 3% Lab

    So LEAVERS are 50% Cons, 25% Lab and 25% UKIP (of LEAVERS)

    REMAINERS
    "If it ain't Broke"
    4% Con, 5% Lab

    I'm all right Jacques" More affluent, male, private sector
    5% Con, 3% Lab

    "Citizen of the World" Younger, graduates, ABC1
    1% Con, 5% Lab, 3% LD/SNP/Grn

    So REMAINERS are 40% Con, 50% Lab and 10% others.

    The UNDECIDED "Listen to DC" are younger, female, over 50% Con and are the swing voters who will determine the result.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Minefornothing
    French gross public debt grew 3.3% Y/Y in Q3 to €2.10 trillion, as a share of GDP up to 96.9% from 95.6%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    Indigo said:

    Tom said:

    I suspect a substantial part of parliamentary business on exit would be amending SIs to remove references to EU laws but leaving the rest of them substantially intact

    The most useful change I would think would be so that EU exports didn't have to comply with both EU standards and those of the target market. Having to apply both EU and say Japanese standards must put us at a distinct competitive disadvantage compared to non-EU countries who can comply only with the Japanese standards, saving them at the least one set of paperwork if not being able to trim requirements as well. Having to apply EU standards to each countries domestic market is rather an imposition as well.

    Do people really only produce products for only one market? When I was involved with a solar battery company, they got the same product certified for US, Japan, Australia and Europe - simply because it was easier to have one production line than three or four.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?

    It's an atheist anti-consumerist hairdo.
    A humbug walks into a "bah"....
    Did you hear about the dyslexic man who walked into a bra?


    ....tumbleweed....
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    Mr. Barnesian, cheers for those numbers.

    Women tend to be more risk averse. That's very good for Remain.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2015
    Barnesian said:

    Indigo said:

    taffys said:

    ''Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum.''
    .

    Looking at the EU ref polls, the OUT is somewhere between 45 and 50% at the moment, if we assume that 15% of those are kippers, the other 30-35% come from other parties, if they aren't lefties, then that is almost all the Tory vote at the last election.... or a lot of Labourites are for OUT despite that their MPs might think.
    The recent Ashcroft poll suggests the following:

    LEAVERS
    "Nothing to lose" Old, C2DE
    8% Con, 4% Lab, 8% UKIP (of population)

    "Global Britain" Younger, ABC1
    7% Con, 3% Lab

    So LEAVERS are 50% Cons, 25% Lab and 25% UKIP (of LEAVERS)

    REMAINERS
    "If it ain't Broke"
    4% Con, 5% Lab

    I'm all right Jacques" More affluent, male, private sector
    5% Con, 3% Lab

    "Citizen of the World" Younger, graduates, ABC1
    1% Con, 5% Lab, 3% LD/SNP/Grn

    So REMAINERS are 40% Con, 50% Lab and 10% others.

    The UNDECIDED "Listen to DC" are younger, female, over 50% Con and are the swing voters who will determine the result.
    Ascroft polls? Are they still going?

    Its a bit long for a cracker joke...
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. Barnesian, cheers for those numbers.

    Women tend to be more risk averse. That's very good for Remain.

    But women went for the "riskier" option in this year's election more than men did.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    edited December 2015
    Mr. 565, but did more women vote blue or red?

    Edited extra bit: and that's disregarding that a referendum is a different beast to an election. A Stay can always change to a Leave later, whereas Leave is for life.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223

    Minefornothing
    French gross public debt grew 3.3% Y/Y in Q3 to €2.10 trillion, as a share of GDP up to 96.9% from 95.6%

    Interestingly, a 3.3% increase in gross government debt is nothing spectacular. The issue is that normally - as underlying economies grow, and as inflation eats away at the value of money - the burden relative to GDP falls.

    The problem France has is that it's economy isn't growing much, and there is bugger all inflation.

    France is the sick man of Europe right now. Too scared to reform, and too unreformed to grow.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. 565, but did more women vote blue or red?

    According to IPSOS-MORI, the Tories led with women by a 4% margin, compared to leading men by an 8% margin.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    Not necessarily. If they thought the Tories in a majority were more likely to deliver economic stability. Nationalism is entirely different and preferred by men. That's full of machismo.
    Danny565 said:

    Mr. Barnesian, cheers for those numbers.

    Women tend to be more risk averse. That's very good for Remain.

    But women went for the "riskier" option in this year's election more than men did.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,862

    I feel sorry for anyone living with Zoe Williams at Xmas.

    https://twitter.com/jhallwood/status/679599592145612802/photo/1

    Is that a bad hair day or does she really think she looks good in that hairdo?

    The jacket/top is even worse.
    The news is even more about Zoe Williams than it is about Laurie Penny. Whodathunkit?
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    taffys said:

    ''Rubio will not get the 35% Hispanic vote he needs and the demographics across the whole country mean current GOP cannot win.''

    In that case, why are they bothering to stand?

    It is worth remembering that the GOP don't actually need to change that many votes to get over the line (although only with a bare minimum, which would make it harder to hold in 2020)

    They need: all the states they won last time + Florida (Obama won by 0.88%) + Ohio (Obama won by 2.98%) + Virginia (Obama won by 3.87%) + Colorado OR Iowa (Obama won by 5.37% and 5.81% respectively). Other states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Minnesota and Wisconsin are also in play. Really the only traditional swing state that has irretrievably moved away from the Republicans due to demographic change is New Mexico. At the same time Missouri has gone the other way
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Tom said:



    And we would also re-invent alot of it anyway. In my area of work we would clearly have Environmental Impact Regulations, procurement guidelines and competition policy. In the latter case the EU can probably be more trusted than national Governments to take on large multi-nationals and stop support of national champions and barriers to entry.

    I suspect a substantial part of parliamentary business on exit would be amending SIs to remove references to EU laws but leaving the rest of them substantially intact.

    Well, Mr. Tom, if you are right then at least Parliament will have a chance to decide whether we want said regulations and if so in what form and to what extent. If the British electorate don't like the decision made than they will be able to "vote the rascals out". Which is sort of the point of being an independent, democratic nation state.

    As to the EU taking on large multi-nationals and stopping support of National Champions, I can hear the cries of derisive laughter even from down here in rural Sussex. True they have conducted a few well-publicised search and destroy missions (e.g. Microsoft) but much more has been done that supports the big boys to the disadvantage of smaller players trying to break in to their markets and as for National champions I refer you to France.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,010

    Barnesian said:

    Indigo said:

    taffys said:

    ''Apparently it will all sweet smiles after the referendum.''
    .

    Looking at the EU ref polls, the OUT is somewhere between 45 and 50% at the moment, if we assume that 15% of those are kippers, the other 30-35% come from other parties, if they aren't lefties, then that is almost all the Tory vote at the last election.... or a lot of Labourites are for OUT despite that their MPs might think.
    The recent Ashcroft poll suggests the following:

    LEAVERS
    "Nothing to lose" Old, C2DE
    8% Con, 4% Lab, 8% UKIP (of population)

    "Global Britain" Younger, ABC1
    7% Con, 3% Lab

    So LEAVERS are 50% Cons, 25% Lab and 25% UKIP (of LEAVERS)

    REMAINERS
    "If it ain't Broke"
    4% Con, 5% Lab

    I'm all right Jacques" More affluent, male, private sector
    5% Con, 3% Lab

    "Citizen of the World" Younger, graduates, ABC1
    1% Con, 5% Lab, 3% LD/SNP/Grn

    So REMAINERS are 40% Con, 50% Lab and 10% others.

    The UNDECIDED "Listen to DC" are younger, female, over 50% Con and are the swing voters who will determine the result.
    Ascroft polls? Are they still going?

    Its a bit long for a cracker joke...
    You're in a foxy mood this morning!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Golly. This seems a trifle generous.

    Dan Hannan
    Basic pay for European Commissioners will rise to £191,500, plus residence payments of £28,700. Merry Christmas! https://t.co/nAyAysUTdu
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I was WTF at their GDP share. Thought it was a useful reminder that GB isn't so terrible after all.
    rcs1000 said:

    Minefornothing
    French gross public debt grew 3.3% Y/Y in Q3 to €2.10 trillion, as a share of GDP up to 96.9% from 95.6%

    Interestingly, a 3.3% increase in gross government debt is nothing spectacular. The issue is that normally - as underlying economies grow, and as inflation eats away at the value of money - the burden relative to GDP falls.

    The problem France has is that it's economy isn't growing much, and there is bugger all inflation.

    France is the sick man of Europe right now. Too scared to reform, and too unreformed to grow.
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    so we dropped .01 % in the 3rd quarter.. fucking catastrophe..Beachy Head beckons..Can Ed Conway be at the front of the queue...he is so happy when he is miserable..
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    That would be the same passport the EU is trying so very hard to deny for non-EMU countries yes?
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Interesting, longish piece on the Republican Party and the meaning of Trump http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
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    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    That would be the same passport the EU is trying so very hard to deny for non-EMU countries yes?
    Source?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    so we dropped .01 % in the 3rd quarter.. fucking catastrophe..Beachy Head beckons..Can Ed Conway be at the front of the queue...he is so happy when he is miserable..

    The ONS has cut its estimate of GDP growth for Quarters 2 and 3 by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Growth over 12 months is now 2.1% - a rate of growth somewhat below trend. Clear signs of slowdown there!
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    J124 growth only at 2.1%...time to go for the long drop..this is totally disastrous...oh woe oh fucking woe..
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,010

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?
    "New tax breaks for North Sea oil and gas production announced by the chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in 2015 will cost taxpayers a further £1.7bn by 2020, according to government figures."

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    'Kate Hoey thinks the whole thing is a corporatist racket'

    There is certainly a very strong element of that, hence the considerable support for the EU in the boardrooms of bigger firms which are either a) the recipients of government largesse b) ultra-bureaucratic organisations which in many ways resemble government departments or c) believe (rightly) the EU is an excellent target for lobbying that will allow them to entrench their market position.

    And perhaps even more crucially, EU bureacracy squeezes out smaller competitors who don't have vast compliance, 'elf n' safety and HR departments who can deal with EU red tape. Big business liking the EU is like someone playing golf at an expensive club - it does cost more but it keeps out the riff raff. Unfortunately for the public, this is directly antithetical to their interests, as most employment comes from SMEs not big companies.

    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.
    That would be the same passport the EU is trying so very hard to deny for non-EMU countries yes?
    Source?
    There's an on going ECJ case the government brought against the EBA iirc. I think we won round one. The gist was that they wanted to introduce a Euro passport instead of an EU passport which would lock out countries which had no intention of joining the Euro. I'll have to look for the details later as I'm almost out of the door until the new year!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    @MaxPB, the passport extends to EEA countries too: so Norway is a member
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    so we dropped .01 % in the 3rd quarter.. fucking catastrophe..Beachy Head beckons..Can Ed Conway be at the front of the queue...he is so happy when he is miserable..

    Also bbc going big on this massive slowdown....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    Another pointless own goal. What's wrong with him? It's more stupid teenager rebellion behaviour.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12066323/Jeremy-Corbyn-cancels-Christmas-and-refuses-to-issue-festive-message.html
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited December 2015

    Tom said:



    And we would also re-invent alot of it anyway. In my area of work we would clearly have Environmental Impact Regulations, procurement guidelines and competition policy. In the latter case the EU can probably be more trusted than national Governments to take on large multi-nationals and stop support of national champions and barriers to entry.

    I suspect a substantial part of parliamentary business on exit would be amending SIs to remove references to EU laws but leaving the rest of them substantially intact.

    .....As to the EU taking on large multi-nationals and stopping support of National Champions, I can hear the cries of derisive laughter even from down here in rural Sussex. True they have conducted a few well-publicised search and destroy missions (e.g. Microsoft) but much more has been done that supports the big boys to the disadvantage of smaller players trying to break in to their markets and as for National champions I refer you to France.
    Yes the EC really held VW in check....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    They're pissed that NHS Crisis hasn't happened yet, and public don't care much about climate change scaremongering.

    so we dropped .01 % in the 3rd quarter.. fucking catastrophe..Beachy Head beckons..Can Ed Conway be at the front of the queue...he is so happy when he is miserable..

    Also bbc going big on this massive slowdown....
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr01,

    "Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?"

    My index-linked subsidy lasts for another 20 years, and solar panels are getting cheaper all the time. The best annuity ever. All hail the marvellous Milliband.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,787
    Does anyone 'in the know' have any info on the explosion(s) at Istanbul Airport that killed one person overnight?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato Corbyn has been de brained..he will be getting acne next
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,669
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Working at a small fund manager, I have exactly the opposite experience. The EU has a system called the single financial passport. This means that if you are regulated in one country in the EU, you can sell to customers in all EU countries.

    Historically, only big financial services firms could afford to set up entities in every country. The single passport means that we can sell to everyone, while only having one entity, and while being regulated by the FSA in the UK.

    By contrast, when we sell to customers in Hong Kong, Canada or Switzerland, we need either to set up a local subsidiary (which would be expensive), or find a partner to act on our behalf (which means losing a third of fees). Being a small business, we have obviously gone down the latter route.

    I'm happy to take your point, but that's one area. I don't think the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies is widely disputed even by its fans.
    You think wrong...:-)

    I once saw a Telegraph article that blamed the EU for the capsizing of the Costa Concordia. I parodied this stance as "Something has happened: quick, let's blame the EU". Simply put, the EU has become an Universal Villain: everything that exists or happens is blamed on it.

    Your statement "...the fact that the EU has lead to a large increase of the regulatory burden on UK companies..." presupposes that a) there has been a large increase in regulatory burden, b) it's caused by membership of the EU, c) it will disappear on LEAVE.

    I can believe in the first part (HR departments are larger now than, say 1980?), although I'd like to see it quantified. But the second and third parts? Not so much. I know it's like swearing in church, but (whisper it) it may just be possible that the regs were driven by/agreed by the UK and will not in fact be removed post-LEAVE.

    Remember the "bonfire of the quangos" that never happened?

    [EDIT: unfuck HTML]
    Of course it's possible. It's possible that a future UK Government may order the death of every firstborn and ban Christmas. The point is that the responsibility and the choice will lie with them, and ultimately with the electorate. I don't see leaving the EU as a panacea for all ills, and I hope no-one else does - if Leave wins it's just the beginning. But it's better than no beginning at all.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,217

    Does anyone 'in the know' have any info on the explosion(s) at Istanbul Airport that killed one person overnight?

    Hadn't heard anything about it, but having looked: bu**er.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12065752/One-dead-in-explosion-at-Istanbul-airport.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/23/istanbul-sabiha-gokcen-airport-explosion-kills-cleaner

    Three blasts is odd, though.
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    For the clones on here:

    :tumbleweed: was a emoticon from defencetalk.com back-in-the-days. 'Clown' was a personal up-tick from OldKingCole.

    :CYMFTOSO:
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    I don't frequently quote the Express, but Corbyn's intv with Red Pepper seems another own goal re patriotism http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/628920/Jeremy-Corbyn-Falklands-War-xenophobic-election-Mar
    In an in-depth interview with the Far-Left Red Pepper website, the Labour leader suggested that the party’s humiliating defeat in the 1983 general election was because of a “xenophobic” campaign by Margaret Thatcher’s government based on the Falklands War.

    The comment is the latest insult to islanders who have fiercely opposed being taken over by Argentina and the veterans who lost their lives and suffered injuries in the campaign in 1982 when fascist leader General Leopoldo Galtieri ordered the invasion.

    Previously, Mr Corbyn has provoked outrage on the same issue when he described the war as “a plot” by Margaret Thatcher to distract from unemployment in Britain as she restructured the economy.
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    justin124 said:

    The ONS has cut its estimate of GDP growth for Quarters 2 and 3 by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Growth over 12 months is now 2.1% - a rate of growth somewhat below trend. Clear signs of slowdown there!

    Do you understand the 'economic-cycle'. [Silly question: Most folk do not understand the definition of 'a recession...!]
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    Barnesian said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?
    "New tax breaks for North Sea oil and gas production announced by the chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in 2015 will cost taxpayers a further £1.7bn by 2020, according to government figures."

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies
    By all means see the closure of the north sea oil industry and the loss of thousands of jobs in Scotland if you want. But renewables remain very much in need of renewing. solar panels need replacing as do wind farms over time. Indeed the very rooftops on which solar panels are placed need renewing periodically.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Does anyone 'in the know' have any info on the explosion(s) at Istanbul Airport that killed one person overnight?

    Well, it could be a militant methodist sect behind the blast(s) or maybe a radical bunch of Orthodox Christians trying to restore the Byzantine Empire, but somehow I doubt it.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Barnesian said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?
    "New tax breaks for North Sea oil and gas production announced by the chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in 2015 will cost taxpayers a further £1.7bn by 2020, according to government figures."

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies
    By all means see the closure of the north sea oil industry and the loss of thousands of jobs in Scotland if you want. But renewables remain very much in need of renewing. solar panels need replacing as do wind farms over time. Indeed the very rooftops on which solar panels are placed need renewing periodically.
    The real question is why are those £1.5bn English pounds paying for Scottish jobs, they certainly wouldn't pay if the boot was on the other foot. Now that Scotland is an independent nation they should be paying for that sort of thing themselves.... oh, wait!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,669

    Does anyone 'in the know' have any info on the explosion(s) at Istanbul Airport that killed one person overnight?

    Well, it could be a militant methodist sect behind the blast(s) or maybe a radical bunch of Orthodox Christians trying to restore the Byzantine Empire, but somehow I doubt it.
    Whomever it was, it will be blamed on Kurds, giving the Erdogan the excuse to kill some more of them.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited December 2015
    I'd rather watch William Woollard
    SeanT said:

    Oh dear, oh dear. Token but cute-ish German woman plus decent petrolhead journalist with some TV skills. Plus Chris Evans.

    It's going to be... competent. OK. Quite watchable, if you're into cars. Like Fifth Gear, or Top Gear itself before Clarkson transformed it.

    But in terms of matching Top Gear's monumental global appeal it's going to be a disaster. This, presumably, is why the producer and script editor have ALREADY left. They can see the aircrash ahead. Panic in the ranks.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    SeanT said:

    But in terms of matching Top Gear's monumental global appeal it's going to be a disaster. This, presumably, is why the producer and script editor have ALREADY left. They can see the aircrash ahead. Panic in the ranks.

    I assume Mr Churchward is still a Top Gear Director, was Mrs Churchward (nee VBH) not available, she always looked good in a car, and knew what she was talking about.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Barnesian said:

    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BBC: "in its World Oil Outlook report, Opec said oil would rise to $70 a barrel by 2020 and in the long term would continue higher."

    Just in time for IndyRef2!

    $70 in 2020.

    It's amazing how perspectives change. 18 months ago you would need to be an uber-bear to predict $70 in 2020. Now $70 in 2020 is considered a bullish forecast.
    People are not realising how much renewables are catching on. Europe led the way but now China and India have caught the zeal of the convert. USA too. Two of the largest solar plants were constructed only recently. Solar is growing by about 100% every year.
    Renewables will have to manage without the govt subsidy in future. And without a govt subsidy what will be the cost of 'renewing' all those solar panels?
    "New tax breaks for North Sea oil and gas production announced by the chancellor, George Osborne, earlier in 2015 will cost taxpayers a further £1.7bn by 2020, according to government figures."

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies
    Quite. And without a govt tax break what will be the cost of 'keeping' all those oil fields?

    One thing I find very puzzling and it is not the cost of subsidy.

    People on the left like renewables initially with subsidy [ which is/was costly ]

    Rightwingers have no qualm about subsidies for Nuclear, Oil / Gas fields !! Taking a punt on
    future energy prices for nuclear is OK but not for renewables, apparently !
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited December 2015

    justin124 said:

    The ONS has cut its estimate of GDP growth for Quarters 2 and 3 by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Growth over 12 months is now 2.1% - a rate of growth somewhat below trend. Clear signs of slowdown there!

    Do you understand the 'economic-cycle'. [Silly question: Most folk do not understand the definition of 'a recession...!]
    Just curious, is this because previous quarters were rerated higher? This would have the effect of lowering the following Qs rate of growth.
    Our trend growth is about 2.25% so this current assessment is nothing special. All it means is that interest rates are less likely to rise.
    We should note that we currently have trend growth with 0.5% bank rate. Interest rates would normally rise when there are signs of the economy overheating. I pointed out a Sunday Times article some days ago which gave a coherent argument suggesting that long term rates looked like struggling to get as far as 2%
    ''Not so long ago that [ie 2% rates] would have been a mere staging post for interest rates. Now it starts to look like the final destination.''
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,217

    Does anyone 'in the know' have any info on the explosion(s) at Istanbul Airport that killed one person overnight?

    Well, it could be a militant methodist sect behind the blast(s) or maybe a radical bunch of Orthodox Christians trying to restore the Byzantine Empire, but somehow I doubt it.
    Whomever it was, it will be blamed on Kurds, giving the Erdogan the excuse to kill some more of them.
    Oddly for your little tin-foil hatted head, the Turks did not blame the Kurds after the Ankara bombing in October, or the Suruç bombing a few months earlier. Those atrocities were quickly put at ISIS's door.

    Having said that, it's sadly not unprecedented for the PKK to bomb Turkey.

    Perhaps you should consider the people your friend Putin is killing before inventing conspiracy theories about Turkey. But that would involve more intellectual rigour than you've got.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35162523
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,159

    Of course it's possible. It's possible that a future UK Government may order the death of every firstborn and ban Christmas. The point is that the responsibility and the choice will lie with them, and ultimately with the electorate. I don't see leaving the EU as a panacea for all ills, and I hope no-one else does - if Leave wins it's just the beginning. But it's better than no beginning at all.

    Which begs the question: beginning of what?

    I assume you mean "the beginning of said onerous burden". But this is just restating the Universal Villain fallacy - that leaving the EU will enable removal of elements imposed against our will. You still haven't demonstrated that a) they were emplaced by the EU and b) it was against our will. It may be true (it may not...:-)) but you are assuming it as a given.
This discussion has been closed.