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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov
At the same time Labour continues to advance and today’s share and recent results suggest that the party is benefitting most from UKIP going off the boil.
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Is it a residential property development near Malaga?
FPT rcs1000 - if Ocado did fail I suspect Amazon would love to buy them on the cheap.....
Ocado are surely not too big to fail, but Tesco?
I'm not altogether certain that the rest of the grocery market could cope with one-third of it shutting up shop overnight.
"Osborne's welfare announcement was a trap, a blatant, neon-signposted trap. And Labour marched in, again"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100223727/osbornes-welfare-announcement-was-a-trap-a-blatant-neon-signposted-trap-and-labour-marched-in-again/
You may however be able to get a few translations from the FCO EU Competences Review site.
I have a couple of potential names in mind. Raikkonen seems to be what most people think, but I'd be very wary of switching to Red Bull if I were in his position.
In one series - its Mobland where screwing $6k a week from a line of business was easy pickings and soccer-moms bet on the stockmarket with their spare cash...then it all turned to dust and even wiseguys are feeling the pinch in a serious way.
Why Labour in 2013 are still clinging onto the notion that handing out freebies is electorally appealing is beyond me - the polling is very clear on this, even last June - when the £26k benefit cap was in play, voters were saying 'its still too much'.
While I didn't like the way that George Osborne expressed himself when he introduced a 7 day wait for claiming benefits for the newly unemployed, this is a group who will normally have funds to rely upon, either from redundancy or severance payments or from some accrued savings from their past wages. If pain is to be shared around, this is one group of recipients of social security that is more likely to be able to bear a share of the pain than others.
@DavidL
FPT
That's where the debate sits on the right. I'd argue that GO has been too slow to address the real economy. The UK needs growth and won't get back to it until overdue reforms are enacted. It's a question of priorities and GO sets his on political bear traps rather than what the real world needs. In essence this is a wasted parliament for economic reform, since now nothing contoversial will be addressed before a GE, the next 2 years will be games and giveaways.
So that's 7 years, before the UK addresses it's banking crash of 2008, 5 years until the tax code can be simplified ( it's bigger than when GO started ), 5 years when regulation grows apace etc.
For a nation in crisis we are remarkably complacent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSRXb2SesfE
Golly. ;^ )
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/07/negotiations-and-love-songs-why.html
As you see, I was right about what I expected for this Parliament.
http://www.indieauthorland.com/archives/3952
For those who might be interested in the short comedy (which is coming along nicely) there's also a link to a first draft at the very first scene included in the interview.
I find them a blight on the network, and the thought of having to drive through more stretches of them - during construction and when built - leaves me wishing the government would cut its capital spending again...
"The double-dip recession never happened: Revised figures show economy performed better than thought
- Economy did not shrink in first quarter of 2012, new data shows
- Recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth
- It means Britain last suffered a recession in 2008-09
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2349469/The-double-dip-recession-happened-Revised-figures-economy-performed-better-thought.html#ixzz2XPmacTV3
PS Is anyone else being repeatedly thrown off Vanilla? I've signed in at least 3x already in 2hrs.
Could be a potent issue in the ref. debate and a possible USP for the red team north of the border in the GE.
http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/fullnode_image/articles_2013/201326maguire.jpg
*reaches for mind-bleach*
If anyone has access to Wikipedia, there is a recession to be removed from one of their lists...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom
Good news for lawyers though.
It sort of begs the question why on earth would anyone bother with Hodges when there are so many other right wing commentators saying the precise same things. Presumably because they're too thick to understand his little Ed fixation and blatantly obvious grudge against him is why the Telegraph pay him.
Maybe they should ask Osborne.
Anyway, on topic, whatever's going on here, the Tories should be very worried that they remain stubbornly stuck at core vote levels even as the UKIP surge subsides.
"And Southam Observer is right about the despicable 7 day stuff, kicking people at precisely their most vulnerable moment. Ed Balls struck a good note with the reference to Wonga but Labour really needs to stop equivocating on this one and oppose it outright. I get that we are not committing to stuff until about April 30 2015, but mood music matters too."
You make a very good point. I heard Ed B on Radio 4 and thought he was pretty good except for his obfuscation. I'm afraid the time has come where Labour have to stand up and be counted. I sense that the country are crying out for a reason to ditch this privileged and mean spirited bunch of charlatans but Labour owe it to the voters to give them some positive reasons to choose them.
“He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.”
― George Orwell, 1984
Is there a hint in the article to explain why?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/commons-confidential-dont-let-them-eat-cake
But I don't think the implied effeminacy is accidental either.....
1) no policies
2) some vague policies that are the same as Osborne's
3) some vague policies that they keep u-turning on
4) some definite policies, like "handing out freebies", that are the wrong policies
Missed anything?
The word is unspoofable. ;^ )
Light opera lovers will call it a trouser role.
"And Southam Observer is right about the despicable 7 day stuff, kicking people at precisely their most vulnerable moment."
Nonsense - if you lose your job, I can't think of one I've had that didn't pay 1 week in arrears or longer.
Frankly - needing to sign-on once a week is a much bigger cost for those who aren't within a walk /short bus ride of their dole office.
For me to get to my JCP and back costs over £8 plus a 4 mile walk. To do that every week rather than once every two is the price of several days food or power. Those in rural areas will be penalised by this quite significantly.
Operations have been delayed and waiting lists allowed to grow at hospitals in north Wales to avoid financial problems getting worse, according to a damning report.
"Significant management failings" risked patient safety for under-reporting infections.
The chairman and chief executive of Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board are to step down after the findings.
Health and audit watchdogs found a catalogue of problems.
BCUHB runs NHS services in north Wales with a budget of around £1.2bn.
Healthcare Inspectorate Wales (HIW) and the Wales Audit Office (WAO) found a series of problems at the health board, which runs Ysbyty Gwynedd, Glan Clwyd and Wrexham Maelor hospitals.
They included finding that the relationship between chairman Prof Merfyn Jones and chief executive Mary Burrows had broken down and compromised the organisation.
Has anyone any definite facts about how many of those describing themselves as voters are really soft about their intentions?
Ed : I agree with Jeffrey
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-X8PyfenqpTE/TeInNxDccuI/AAAAAAAAB3Q/365xFVvYHp8/s1600/EdMilibandWeddingSuit.jpg It just shrieks 1980s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgfAWJbjvGg
Is it not 7 days before you can even claim? You only actually receive money some time after that. If the monthly payments are introduced, could potentially be 5 weeks, perhaps longer before you have any financial support after losing your job. Not pretty.
Because nobody would be that stupid, would they? ;^ )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWut7c19SCg
you're on a road to nowhere
Burgers? Oh come on guys you can do better than this.
I notice there's been quite a bit of playing the man from the left in the last few days. Is that because labour essentially agree with the coalition's policies?
"Clean out of those, Sir!"
As far as specific policies go, bringing back the 10p tax paid for by a mansion tax springs to mind. There's not many, maybe one or two others I think, but I'm sure you can find / make them up as appropriate.
It's a crap choice - but I still think Osborne/tories will need 5 more years to pull us through this crisis.
\/
George Osborne or Ed balls
How the Lib Dems broke their promise to block new welfare cuts
The party vowed to block further welfare cuts but the seven-day wait for benefits amounts to a £245m cut.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/how-lib-dems-broke-their-promise-block-new-welfare-cuts
Perhaps Labour could call this the "naive" tax - a penalty for those to stupid to forward plan by retaining some savings.
"Poor people can't budget - it's so cruel"
Patronising.
Perhaps you should stick that on a poster with "vote conservative" and add something about "let them eat cake".
You clearly don't remember why the tories elected Cammie as leader in the first place.
Ask Theresa May since she at least knew that becoming the nasty party made you unelectable for more than a decade. Cammie's own polling is now on a par with the tory brand and if you don't understand what that means then that would be your problem.
Any comment on these developments Tim?
The other established pollsters all have different approaches.
Barring a by-election, UKIP's numbers should gradually subside, although they remain well up, on average, compared to 12 months ago.
UKIP will surge again, in the run up to next year's Euro elections, and this will also win them plenty of seats in the local elections that are held on the same day.
You clearly don't remember why the tories elected Cammie as leader in the first place.
Ask Theresa May since she at least knew that becoming the nasty party made you unelectable for well over a decade.
I'm not a party member Pork - just a voter - and one that doesn't like metropolitan socialists patronising the less fortunate - like the vested interests in your post.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/fraser-nelson/2013/06/audio-ed-balls-peddles-myths-again/
"Poor old Ed Balls. His economic policy seems to be imploding, and he was this morning reduced to concocting stories about the Wicked Tories. "
Some wonder why we Yes Scotland supporters are seemingly so desperate to cut all political ties with the rest of the UK (rUK) when we already have our own devolved parliament at Holyrood. Why do we want to stir things up and drag ourselves through unnecessary turmoil? Who would be so mad as to do that??
People who value the principles of democracy.
I thought to myself ‘what if the UK as a whole was in a similar position to Scotland at Westminster?’. What if the 3rd and 4th placed parties governed in coalition for England? A totally hypothetical question, of course – yet not irrelevant to the current debate. We in Scotland – as indeed in Wales and Northern Ireland too – are governed by a coalition that the vast majority of our electorate rejected at the ballot box.
So I applied the same rules to the UK as a whole, using the 3rd and 4th placed parties as the hypothetical coalition government.
Using vote percentage, this would result in a Lib Dem/UKIP government. What a lovely thought!
http://scottishindy2014.wordpress.com/2013/06/27/democracy-how-we-dont-really-have-it/
And if it is "cruel and mean in the extreme" - why have the two Eds not denounced it unequivocally?
Presumably that's the old trick of a campaign supporter (or supporters) betting large sums to distort the headline betting odds. Well, it didn't work for Chris Huhne.
Roll on Wednesday the 26th June 2013 and they are frothing at the mouth that the Chancellor did NOT order from McDonalds -You couldn't make it up
Why is McDonalds so good now Tim ?
"There is one other parliament where we have less influence than we should: the European Parliament.
Scotland has a population of roughly 5.25 million. We have 6 MEPs representing us in Europe. Malta has a population of 0.45million. They have 6 MEPs representing them in Europe. That’s a country with 8.6% of the population that we have with an identical number of MEPs. That simply can’t be right, by anyone’s reckoning. Independent countries of similar size to Scotland have double that: Ireland (with 4.5million citizens) has 12 MEPs, Slovakia and Denmark with 5.4-5.5million have 13. Considering that the Scottish Parliament covers legislation on the majority of our civic issues, we are grossly under-represented at the European level – where politicians legislate on mainly civic issues."
*tears of laughter etc.*
So hopelessly out of touch yet so completely oblivious to it.
So according to you the Trussell Trust and their 325 foodbanks, the Child Poverty Action Group, Gingerbread who represent lone parents and the Catholic Church are ALL "vested interests" and "metropolitan socialists patronising the less fortunate".
You remember when the chumocracy referred to certain right wingers as "mad swivel-eyed loons", who do you think they were talking about?
But the ONS said the recession in 2008 was deeper than previously estimated.
Gross domestic product (GDP) during that time is now estimated to have dropped by 7.2% from peak to trough, against a 6.3% fall previously recorded.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23079082
I hope he loses ,if only to get rid of whinging 'its all England's fault' types
Thankyou for the moral support, but as you know the UK government's advisers feel that the timetable suggested by the SNP for negotiating continued EU membership is "realistic".
I take it you feel that underrepresentation in the European Parliament is a good thing for Scotland?
One other feature of the figures is how stable the other numbers are, with 31/39/10 as a standard. The Labour figure does look like a bit of an outlier at the moment, without any obvious prompt to provoke a 2% shift, and I suspect is linked to Mike's point about UKIP's non-visibility i.e. it's people with very soft party identification looking to register a protest against the government. (That 'others' has also risen a point or two since the start of the month may also be part of the same protest).
And a very good afternoon to you too, Alan. How are you today?
http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/europe/switzerland.html
http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/europe/finland.html
http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/europe/denmark.html
http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/europe/sweden.html
Maybe, but if so, why on earth would they bet £200,000 at...what was it, 1/5? 1/6? On any rational view of the campaign and the polls (Yes just eight points behind in the latest one), that's crazy.