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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To start Christmas week a contender for the Tweet exchange

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  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Great idea, I played sometimes.
    RobinC said:

    Many of you, like me, belonged to The Election Game run by Paul Maggs. It had been running successfully for many years and then a few months ago just stopped, with only a note on the website saying that due to work commitments, some forthcoming elections would not be included. Since then - nothing. Perhaps this issue has been discussed previously but I can't find anything on here or on the web generally, so say what happened.
    It was a great game for those of us interested in political outcomes and with it's league tables, added a competitive edge to our forecasts. If people are still interested in continuing this game, I would be happy to help run it. Has anyone else considered that and how could we arrange to take on the existing site and technical stuff as there is currently no reply to the holder of all that information?

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Cyclefree said:

    MP_SE said:

    Tory chairman Lord Feldman today faced new pressure to resign over bullying allegations after a poll showed three times more people think he should quit than remain in the post.

    A survey for the Standard by BMG Research also exposed a huge lack of trust in the inquiry set up to get to the bottom of the “Tatler Tory” scandal.

    Almost half the 1,500 people surveyed said they would not trust the investigation’s findings. Around the same amount said former minister Grant Shapps was right to resign over the affair, in which Tory activist Elliott Johnson, 21, committed suicide after complaining about bullying.

    Dr Michael Turner, director of BMG Research, said: “These results paint a fairly bleak picture for the party ahead of the campaigning season for elections around the country in 2016. The poll shows large numbers from all sides calling for heads to roll. Even among those who voted Conservative in May.”

    http://bit.ly/1S4EtBR

    This does not bode well for Lord Feldman. Apparently a number of witnesses are refusing to give evidence as Clifford Chance are unable to protect their identities. The Johnson family are not taking part either.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/678906466783223809
    Anyone investigating a whistleblowing will know that this is the case in most whistleblowing investigations. You try where you can to protect a person's anonymity but it may not be possible e.g. if a court or other authority requires you to provide the name or because it can be guessed from the context or because it is obvious or because, in order to investigate, you need to put the allegations made to the interviewee. That is why any good whistleblowing policy has a no-retaliation provision. And why any such policy will say that it will try and preserve anonymity but will not guarantee it.

    Of course some people will whistleblow without ever revealing their names but this does make it harder, sometimes and depending on the allegations, to investigate the matter properly.

    Thank you for explaining. It is a shame the letter does not seem to make any mention of a no-retaliation policy.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 21
    OT Just watching a C5 docu about psychopaths - inc Savile. There's an intv with him and Dr Anthony Clare in there. Crikey, it's chilling stuff seen in retrospect. http://www.channel4.com/news/how-jimmy-savile-revealed-all-in-the-psychiatrists-chair

    http://www.channel5.com/shows/meet-the-psychopaths/episodes/episode-2-828
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756

    malcolmg said:

    This is the reality that refutes the dribble from the Daily Heil yesterday on refugees in Bute.

    Eliza, you really need to get someone to look at your programming.
    You need to get a life , too much time spent dribbling with babies
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,756
    edited 2015 21
    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    SNP extends lead over Lab to 37% on constituency & 34% on regional vote in TNS poll

    Get over yerself Malc. Scotland is indeed now the National Socialist Scottish Workers' Party utopian paradise you always dreamed of - err, apart from the small matter of actual independence of course.
    Patrick, both Blue and Red Tories are now dead ducks, Lib Dems don't even count as ducks so all is very well with me Patrick. Whilst having crap in Westminster is bad, the fact we have a real Scottish Government in Holyrood at least provides some damage limitation.

    PS have the real Scottish Tories in charge., not the pretendy sockpuppet version.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited 2015 21
    This campaign against Lord Feldman is getting ridiculous. If there are substantial allegations against him or anyone else, people should make them to Clifford Chance, or to the Coroner, or to the police, depending on what exactly is being alleged. If there aren't, they should shut up and stop flinging mud around. There is no excuse for refusing to cooperate whilst continuing to make dark accusations.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Tory chairman Lord Feldman today faced new pressure to resign over bullying allegations after a poll showed three times more people think he should quit than remain in the post.

    A survey for the Standard by BMG Research also exposed a huge lack of trust in the inquiry set up to get to the bottom of the “Tatler Tory” scandal.

    Almost half the 1,500 people surveyed said they would not trust the investigation’s findings. Around the same amount said former minister Grant Shapps was right to resign over the affair, in which Tory activist Elliott Johnson, 21, committed suicide after complaining about bullying.

    Dr Michael Turner, director of BMG Research, said: “These results paint a fairly bleak picture for the party ahead of the campaigning season for elections around the country in 2016. The poll shows large numbers from all sides calling for heads to roll. Even among those who voted Conservative in May.”

    http://bit.ly/1S4EtBR

    Whom the heck is BMG Research apart from a self promoting outfit getting on a bandwagon?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,744
    I'm in tune with the British public, once again

    Donald Trump is overwhelmingly disliked by the British public, an exclusive poll reveals today.

    The outspoken US presidential candidate has managed to unite a huge majority of people against him, including Tories and Labour voters and people in every UK region, according to research by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard.

    Nearly three-quarters of the public — 74 per cent — have an unfavourable opinion of the Republican frontrunner, and just 12 per cent are favourable.

    By contrast, his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton is liked by a clear majority of Britons. Some 56 per cent feel favourably about her, and 15 per cent unfavourably.

    http://bit.ly/1QF54pG
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited 2015 21
    Pulpstar said:
    'bell' is better associated with Mourinho, no?

    If he was sacked at the moment the NYSE bell range, surely "Bell Ends Van Gaal and Mourinho Begins" is the headline of choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    F1: Renault completes its acquisition of Lotus:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35151905

    Little odd to think it's only a few years ago that two teams were bickering over which one was really Lotus, and now there is no Lotus on the grid.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    This is the reality that refutes the dribble from the Daily Heil yesterday on refugees in Bute.

    Eliza, you really need to get someone to look at your programming.
    You need to get a life , too much time spent dribbling with babies
    Mister Ed, why don't you let the jockey have a say?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    What’s the point of asking Brits who they prefer, when only the American public get to vote?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,744
    edited 2015 21

    What’s the point of asking Brits who they prefer, when only the American public get to vote?

    If you were a savvy Republican candidate or the Dems, you could say 'Donald Trump is so terrible, our strongest ally is appalled by the prospect of him becoming President'
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited 2015 21
    ''By contrast, his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton is liked by a clear majority of Britons. Some 56 per cent feel favourably about her, and 15 per cent unfavourably.''

    To paraphrase that poll

    ''would you like a free opportunity to virtue signal with zero comeback and no need to commit to a political opinion?''

    75% agreed!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''What’s the point of asking Brits who they prefer, when only the American public get to vote?''

    Remember when the Guardian tried to get to the good people of Ohio?

    Hilarious
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Taffys, if 75% of Frenchmen want us to stay in the EU, that could be used by both the In and the Out campaigns :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton is liked by a clear majority of Britons. Some 56 per cent feel favourably about her, and 15 per cent unfavourably.''

    To paraphrase that poll

    ''would you like a free opportunity to virtue signal with zero comeback and no need to commit to a political opinion?''

    75% agreed!

    It made me chuckle this morning when Adrian "Golly" Chiles suggested that somebody outside of the world of football, somebody with real integrity, should take over the running of FIFA, somebody like Bill Clinton.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Urquhart, what's the golly reference?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    What’s the point of asking Brits who they prefer, when only the American public get to vote?

    If you were a savvy Republican candidate or the Dems, you could say 'Donald Trump is so terrible, our strongest ally is appalled by the prospect of him becoming President'
    Hmm. - 78.2% Of Brits have never heard of Donald Trump and 87.4 of Americans don’t know who their strongest ally is – Apart from that I’m sure it’s terribly useful….
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited 2015 21
    Mr @SimonStClare - speaking of not knowing who the US' strongest allies are

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5Ur5E61sKY
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    Mr. Urquhart, what's the golly reference?

    Carol Thatcher, One Show, Green Room, ...
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited 2015 21
    ''Mr. Taffys, if 75% of Frenchmen want us to stay in the EU, that could be used by both the In and the Out campaigns.''

    Indeed Mr Morris. The three feet thick ignorance of people on this side of the pond who talk about Trump amazes me.

    Yes he may be a populist and a bully. So what. America is a democracy. Anything he does will be constrained by congress, an independent judiciary, a constitution, a free press, opinion polls, guaranteed free speech and follow up elections.

    The now common notion that he's as big a danger to the world as ISIS is the most absurd nonsense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Urquhart, one does not watch the One Show. My only knowledge of it is Matt Baker[sp] once asking Cameron how he slept at night [probably more easily than a man whose responsibilities include sitting on a sofa and reading an autocue].

    Mr. Taffys, there's a fair few clowns about when it comes to ISIS. Unfortunately, several of them are at the top of the Labour Party.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited 2015 21

    This campaign against Lord Feldman is getting ridiculous. If there are substantial allegations against him or anyone else, people should make them to Clifford Chance, or to the Coroner, or to the police, depending on what exactly is being alleged. If there aren't, they should shut up and stop flinging mud around. There is no excuse for refusing to cooperate whilst continuing to make dark accusations.

    Does that apply to the poor family of Elliot Johnson? They have discussed the possibility of launching a civil lawsuit. I doubt they would do that without good reason...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 21

    Mr. Urquhart, one does not watch the One Show. My only knowledge of it is Matt Baker[sp] once asking Cameron how he slept at night [probably more easily than a man whose responsibilities include sitting on a sofa and reading an autocue].

    Mr. Taffys, there's a fair few clowns about when it comes to ISIS. Unfortunately, several of them are at the top of the Labour Party.

    I don't watch the One Show either, but it was rather a large story. A number of years ago, while watching the tennis in the Green Room, Carol Thatcher allegedly said that a player looked a little bit like one of those golliwog dolls. Not only did Adrian take her to task on how racist that was, he also went and reported her to BBC authorities, who ultimately sacked her.

    Adrian is rather shall we say inconsistent though in terms of offense and racism. Last year, a Jewish man filmed his experience of walking through various areas of Paris and suffered some terrible abuse. Naturally you would think that Adrian, as a right on liberal BBC type, would equally be offended by this, except he spent 30 mins basically telling his guy well what did you expect, it wasn't that bad and I get abuse when I walk around Salford.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Urquhart, hmm, I have vague memories of that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    taffys said:

    Yes he may be a populist and a bully. So what. America is a democracy. Anything he does will be constrained by congress, an independent judiciary, a constitution, a free press, opinion polls, guaranteed free speech and follow up elections.

    The now common notion that he's as big a danger to the world as ISIS is the most absurd nonsense.

    It's not completely absurd, because the one power the US president does have is to use military force.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Simon Danczuk gives Corbyn a "D" in his ratings on Sky....a ringing endorsement
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    Mr @SimonStClare - speaking of not knowing who the US' strongest allies are

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5Ur5E61sKY

    Isn't that Merkel's trademark?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MP_SE said:

    Does that apply to the poor family of Elliot Johnson? They have discussed the possibility of launching a civil lawsuit. I doubt they would do that without good reason...

    In the first instance, any information they have, or anyone else has, in respect of the tragic death of Elliot Johnson should be given to the Coroner, or to the police if there could be any criminal aspect to it. If they want also contribute to the Conservative Party's enquiry, they should do so. If they don't, that's up to them. What is not up to them is to dictate in advance that Lord Feldman should resign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161
    taffys said:

    The now common notion that he's as big a danger to the world as ISIS is the most absurd nonsense.

    Don't let Lovinputin1983 hear you say that!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It's not completely absurd, because the one power the US president does have is to use military force. ''

    Do you mean war?

    Re-reading my American constitution, I find that war powers are separated between the President and Congress.

    For example the granting of money to prosecute wars is exclusively congressional.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    So Mr Grant, whatever attracted you to taking a leading role in a campaign group who want to severely restrict press freedoms and their ability to report stories about individuals in the public eye....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3368853/I-grandchild-wonderful-Hugh-Grant-father-fourth-time-Swedish-television-producer-lover-Anna-Eberstein-gives-birth-baby.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/12/21/muslim-rape-gang-found-guilty-abusing-white-girl/

    I would have no problem with a public hanging for all of these disgusting rapists. Do it in the centre of Bradistan.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    taffys said:

    ''It's not completely absurd, because the one power the US president does have is to use military force. ''

    Do you mean war?

    Re-reading my American constitution, I find that war powers are separated between the President and Congress.

    For example the granting of money to prosecute wars is exclusively congressional.

    Sure, but the President can order invasions, fire off bombers or missiles or drones, or make military threats, without getting Congress to approve first.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449

    taffys said:

    Yes he may be a populist and a bully. So what. America is a democracy. Anything he does will be constrained by congress, an independent judiciary, a constitution, a free press, opinion polls, guaranteed free speech and follow up elections.

    The now common notion that he's as big a danger to the world as ISIS is the most absurd nonsense.

    It's not completely absurd, because the one power the US president does have is to use military force.
    And who then will pay for said military? Congress needs to approve wartime expenditure, the POTUS may be commander in chief but unless Trump can pull $200bn to wage war in the Middle East out of his arse then I wouldn't worry about him going mad.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Don't let Lovinputin1983 hear you say that!''

    For some people, a democracy ceases to be a democracy when people inside it start to entertain ideas with which they violently disagree.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,449
    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MaxPB said:

    And who then will pay for said military? Congress needs to approve wartime expenditure, the POTUS may be commander in chief but unless Trump can pull $200bn to wage war in the Middle East out of his arse then I wouldn't worry about him going mad.

    It's too late by then.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    To be honest they seemed to specialise in fizzy pressurised keg lagers - no loss.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/12/21/muslim-rape-gang-found-guilty-abusing-white-girl/

    I would have no problem with a public hanging for all of these disgusting rapists. Do it in the centre of Bradistan.

    Public death by stoning would add a nice multicultural touch.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362

    FPT:

    At the end of an era
    The First thing to go
    Are the heads of our leaders
    Kicked down in the road...

    On the day of reckoning
    When we've struck & won
    Watch close as their heroes
    Go crashing down on the pavement...

    The workers in Poland rose
    & in Hungary too

    Somoza & Jose fell
    ... Azania coming soon!

    Kick over the statues
    And the tyrants die
    Wave bye bye with a hammer
    To their heroes

    The first act of freedom
    All over the world
    Is to topple the statues
    Kick the bosses over

    And FPT, no, you were not the only P\ber to go to a Redskins gig. I was very wide-ranging in my gig-going in the 80's. Used to go to a raft of very right-on stuff. I probably wen to more Billy Bragg benefit gigs than anyone here. And used to see the Au Pairs on a regular basis too....

    There weren't many (any??) overtly right-wing bands in the 80's, so you just had to park your politics (and a donation to the Labour Party) at the door and have a good night out....
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    20 economists agreeing the next crash was just round the corner and we need to be ready.Maybe Peoples QE could catch on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,161

    20 economists agreeing the next crash was just round the corner and we need to be ready.Maybe Peoples QE could catch on.

    Yes, because printing money has never caused any problems.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    rcs1000..depends entirely upon how much is printed...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,270
    rcs1000 said:

    20 economists agreeing the next crash was just round the corner and we need to be ready.Maybe Peoples QE could catch on.

    Yes, because printing money has never caused any problems.
    Only 20 - nothing to worry about then
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832
    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832
    Lindsay Graham drops out of GOP race. Only 13 to go.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    A test case for Nick Palmer's theory of winnowing the GOP field = bad news for Trump.
    Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the race, this leaves just 13 candidates, he last polled 0 in Iowa, 0 in N.H, 1 in S.Carolina (his home state) and 0 nationally.
    So now his crucial endorsement which will sway all 10 of his supporters is now up for grabs.

    Also a poll which highlights the danger to Ted Cruz of Super Tuesday(March 1st), a poll of his home state of Texas that votes on Super Tuesday has him losing to Trump:

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 10
    Carson 6
    Bush 6
    Paul 5
    Fiorina 3
    Kasich 1
    Christie 1

    http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec14-19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

    Now if Cruz loses his own home state of Texas to Trump, he will be embarrassed and there will be pressure for him to drop out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. 1000, that's absolutely Reich.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?

    Force people to spend.. Afetr all, the major companies have $ trillions in cash. Apples alone have over $200billion..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,751

    Lindsay Graham drops out of GOP race. Only 13 to go.

    Must be all of 5 votes there for grabs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,832
    Speedy said:

    A test case for Nick Palmer's theory of winnowing the GOP field = bad news for Trump.
    Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the race, this leaves just 13 candidates, he last polled 0 in Iowa, 0 in N.H, 1 in S.Carolina (his home state) and 0 nationally.
    So now his crucial endorsement which will sway all 10 of his supporters is now up for grabs.

    Also a poll which highlights the danger to Ted Cruz of Super Tuesday(March 1st), a poll of his home state of Texas that votes on Super Tuesday has him losing to Trump:

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 10
    Carson 6
    Bush 6
    Paul 5
    Fiorina 3
    Kasich 1
    Christie 1

    http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec14-19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

    Now if Cruz loses his own home state of Texas to Trump, he will be embarrassed and there will be pressure for him to drop out.

    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?

    Force people to spend.. Afetr all, the major companies have $ trillions in cash. Apples alone have over $200billion..
    Well they have tons of cash overseas in order to try to avoid paying taxes domestically on that cash pile.
    Apple has tried to circumvent that by issuing bonds to fund itself, with the cash pile that it can't touch for tax reasons as guarantee to investors.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?

    Possibly, if not probably, the best thing a central bank can do is the face of an ordinary recession is nothing. As any gardener will tell you to get the best and most productive growth it is necessary to prune the plants and clear away dead wood; a recession is just the economic cycle's version of having a good prune. All that a central bank needs to do is hold its nerve and make soothing noises, HMG likewise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 21
    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,138
    Mr. Urquhart, isn't it Abrams? [Could be wrong, this isn't my forte].

    Abrams has a lot on his plate so it may simply be because of that.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited 2015 21

    Speedy said:

    A test case for Nick Palmer's theory of winnowing the GOP field = bad news for Trump.
    Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the race, this leaves just 13 candidates, he last polled 0 in Iowa, 0 in N.H, 1 in S.Carolina (his home state) and 0 nationally.
    So now his crucial endorsement which will sway all 10 of his supporters is now up for grabs.

    Also a poll which highlights the danger to Ted Cruz of Super Tuesday(March 1st), a poll of his home state of Texas that votes on Super Tuesday has him losing to Trump:

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 10
    Carson 6
    Bush 6
    Paul 5
    Fiorina 3
    Kasich 1
    Christie 1

    http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec14-19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

    Now if Cruz loses his own home state of Texas to Trump, he will be embarrassed and there will be pressure for him to drop out.

    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.
    Not by me, I have an excellent record of predictions on that race, I always said that he was a paper tiger.

    Kasich is a bad campaigner, he constantly talks only about Ohio and nothing else, and everytime he's on TV he does those karate chops, not to mention his policies especially on gay marriage that make him unacceptable to republicans, he's so far to the left that he's running for the nomination of the wrong party (like Jim Webb ran for the democrats as a right winger).

    Even his TV ads are useless because he wants to bring Trump down by using Trump's popular speeches and policies in his attack ads, those result in free publicity for Trump without doing any harm to him, the opposite in fact. It just shows how out of touch he is with his own party base.

    In essence, he's just another paper tiger (like Bush, Rubio, Christie, Fiorina), just because he's governor of Ohio doesn't mean he's good at it, and the result shows.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598



    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.

    I like Kasich but I suspect he's too European a candidate for the GOP race - he'd seemingly be quite at home as a Christian Democrat in Germany. I think a lot of us on this side of the pond have trouble projecting ourselves accurately into the minds of GOP voters.

    At this point it seems to me to be coming down to Trump, Cruz or maybe Rubio - all the others don't have the momentum and it is probably too late to get it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 21

    Mr. Urquhart, isn't it Abrams? [Could be wrong, this isn't my forte].

    Abrams has a lot on his plate so it may simply be because of that.

    It is, damn phone auto-correct.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Speedy said:

    A test case for Nick Palmer's theory of winnowing the GOP field = bad news for Trump.
    Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the race, this leaves just 13 candidates, he last polled 0 in Iowa, 0 in N.H, 1 in S.Carolina (his home state) and 0 nationally.
    So now his crucial endorsement which will sway all 10 of his supporters is now up for grabs.

    Also a poll which highlights the danger to Ted Cruz of Super Tuesday(March 1st), a poll of his home state of Texas that votes on Super Tuesday has him losing to Trump:

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 10
    Carson 6
    Bush 6
    Paul 5
    Fiorina 3
    Kasich 1
    Christie 1

    http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec14-19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

    Now if Cruz loses his own home state of Texas to Trump, he will be embarrassed and there will be pressure for him to drop out.

    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.
    Now that the Southern Belle Lindsay has retired, I think every Republican candidate apart from Trump has been touted on PB as one to watch.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362

    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?

    Looper is an excelllent sci-fi film, for anyone who hasn't seen it. It has a truly memorable opening......
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,598
    The Telegraph has had a stiff fine for emailing readers to warn them that Ed seemed rather left-wing. Interesting legal decision, hinging on privacy law rather than electoral law:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/dec/21/telegraph-fined-email-conservatives

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited 2015 21

    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?

    Looper is an excelllent sci-fi film, for anyone who hasn't seen it. It has a truly memorable opening......
    Interesting they have gone for this guy who has done Looper...and.....and......couple of episodes of Breaking Bad to write and direct 8 and 9. I am sure they list of people willing to do it would be huge, so to go for somebody with such a limited body of work is interesting. Disney keeping the costs down ;-) Bit like picking an unknown for the lead, I read she only got £300k for her appearance.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Speedy said:

    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?

    Force people to spend.. Afetr all, the major companies have $ trillions in cash. Apples alone have over $200billion..
    Well they have tons of cash overseas in order to try to avoid paying taxes domestically on that cash pile.
    Apple has tried to circumvent that by issuing bonds to fund itself, with the cash pile that it can't touch for tax reasons as guarantee to investors.
    If I was US taxpayer I would be jolly miffed at Apple and want something done about such blatant shenanigans. If all that cash is appearing in their books as profits then it should be taxed. If it is not appearing as profits then perhaps the legal authorities need to get involved to find out where all the money has come from.

    I do think it really is time that companies and corporations were again taxed as though they were individuals, at least in the UK - other countries I don't care about. If a company is doing business in the UK then it is making use of infrastructure, both physical and cultural (e.g. law), that has to be paid for. Companies such as Starbucks, Amazon and hundreds more should not be allowed to use clever accounting tricks to evade payment.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    The Telegraph has had a stiff fine for emailing readers to warn them that Ed seemed rather left-wing. Interesting legal decision, hinging on privacy law rather than electoral law:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/dec/21/telegraph-fined-email-conservatives

    £30k isn't exactly stiff, especially when £500k was the maximum fine possible. Still, wrong of them to send unsolicited mail in that way.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    MP_SE said:

    This campaign against Lord Feldman is getting ridiculous. If there are substantial allegations against him or anyone else, people should make them to Clifford Chance, or to the Coroner, or to the police, depending on what exactly is being alleged. If there aren't, they should shut up and stop flinging mud around. There is no excuse for refusing to cooperate whilst continuing to make dark accusations.

    Does that apply to the poor family of Elliot Johnson? They have discussed the possibility of launching a civil lawsuit. I doubt they would do that without good reason...
    People talking about going to law happens frequently. The follow through numbers are substantially less. Id be interested to hear what their cause of action will be.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    The Telegraph has had a stiff fine for emailing readers to warn them that Ed seemed rather left-wing. Interesting legal decision, hinging on privacy law rather than electoral law:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/dec/21/telegraph-fined-email-conservatives

    £30k isn't exactly stiff, especially when £500k was the maximum fine possible. Still, wrong of them to send unsolicited mail in that way.
    To get the full 500k fine you would have to deliberately leak sensitive medical details to the press for money, relating to thousands of people, I would think.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?

    Looper is an excelllent sci-fi film, for anyone who hasn't seen it. It has a truly memorable opening......
    Interesting they have gone for this guy who has done Looper...and.....and......couple of episodes of Breaking Bad to write and direct 8 and 9. I am sure they list of people willing to do it would be huge, so to go for somebody with such a limited body of work is interesting. Disney keeping the costs down ;-) Bit like picking an unknown for the lead, I read she only got £300k for her appearance.
    I suspect she might be able to get a bit more for the next one, though
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Freggles said:

    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?

    Looper is an excelllent sci-fi film, for anyone who hasn't seen it. It has a truly memorable opening......
    Interesting they have gone for this guy who has done Looper...and.....and......couple of episodes of Breaking Bad to write and direct 8 and 9. I am sure they list of people willing to do it would be huge, so to go for somebody with such a limited body of work is interesting. Disney keeping the costs down ;-) Bit like picking an unknown for the lead, I read she only got £300k for her appearance.
    I suspect she might be able to get a bit more for the next one, though
    I would think so yes...At least £350k, now there is some more room in the budget ;-)
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    At least 5% 0f budget plus back end stuff..for starters..
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,774
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Con level ,Lab +1, LD level, UKIP +2
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
    Can we just call it Corbania? :D
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
    39% + 10% =49%

    Majority for anti-Blukip supporters
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    Pep Guardiola has already chosen his next club after telling Bayern Munich of his decision to leave at their Christmas party, according to chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge.

    Former Milan, Chelsea and Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti, 56, has signed a three-year deal to replace Guardiola at Bayern.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/35153324
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Freggles said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
    39% + 10% =49%

    Majority for anti-Blukip supporters
    Margin of error!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,362
    On the topic of movies:

    Inside Out - quite brilliant. A work of genius by Pixar.

    Steve Jobs - some superb dialogue, but structural issues (following the launch of each new project was very restricting. It felt and looked like a piece of filmed theatre.) Fassbender is good in the leading role - but not awards good.

    The Revenant - a story of trappers in the snowy wastes of north America in the early 1800's, apparently based on a true story. It is beautifully filmed (worth the extreme measures they went to on location) - and the director (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who last did Birdman) stands a real shot at the Directors awards. But at two and a half hours, it is just way too long. di Caprio will no doubt get an Oscar nomination. He'll deserve it - it was clealy a gruelling film to make. It is hard watching in places - and not one for horse lovers! That said, there is one utterly astonishing moment that literally took my breath away.

    The Hateful Eight - a Tarantino movie is always something to look forward to. One with eight bounty hunters trapped in a snowbound store, with a prisoner who has a ten thousand bucks bounty on her head - that was always promising. And I adored Django Unchained. Sadly, this movie is no Django. Another long movie, at close on two and a half hours, it feels like a much earlier work. The tone is uneven - a gross-out Stand By Me/Witches of Eastwick barforama for example seemed straight out of a student movie. Unusually, Samuel L. Jackson gives a not great performance. Maybe you will enjoy it more if you go into it without high expectations.

    Another evening of movie watching to come - will let you know what I thought....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
    39% + 10% =49%

    Majority for anti-Blukip supporters
    Margin of error!
    39% + 7% = 46%

    Majority for anti-Coalition supporters
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659

    Filming on the next Star Wars movie - Episode VIII - will start within weeks in London. Rian Johnson, known for time-travel film Looper, has been confirmed as the writer and director.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/35155164/star-wars-viii-to-start-filming-in-weeks-says-john-boyega-at-london-cinema

    Why no JJ Abrams?

    Looper is an excelllent sci-fi film, for anyone who hasn't seen it. It has a truly memorable opening......
    Agreed
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838



    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.

    I like Kasich but I suspect he's too European a candidate for the GOP race - he'd seemingly be quite at home as a Christian Democrat in Germany. I think a lot of us on this side of the pond have trouble projecting ourselves accurately into the minds of GOP voters.

    At this point it seems to me to be coming down to Trump, Cruz or maybe Rubio - all the others don't have the momentum and it is probably too late to get it.
    Agreed. It's almost axiomatic that any candidate that would be viable in a European election has no chance.

    I guess the one thing that may shift momentum now is a surprise result in Iowa or NH (obvious, I know). If Rubio wins neither, as current polling strongly suggests, I think he would fade. But these early primaries do spring surprises.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    ICM - Conservative lead of 5 - CON (39%) LAB (34%) LD (7%) UKIP (10%)

    Corbynism sweeping the nation....
    39% + 10% =49%

    Majority for anti-Blukip supporters
    Margin of error!
    39% + 7% = 46%

    Majority for anti-Coalition supporters
    Margin of error! 39±3% + 7±3% = 46±4.2%

    :p
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    As an economist said the other day in one of the papers, the problem if we have another recession is that there has never been a serious downturn when interest rates are already pretty much as low as they can go. What does the central bank do?

    for 70ish years the USSR demonstrated to the world that when you fix prises centrally, you end up with shortages of some things and surpluses of others, crating waste, corruption, and sub optimal allocation of resources. More recently the Venezuelan government, (and the last Argentinean government) have showed us that you can impose a fixed exchange rate all you like, but you will also get a real 'black market' rate and the more different they get, the more shortages, waste, corruption, and unemployment you get.

    One day people will accept that interest rates are a price just like any other (but much more impotent) and should be set by the same forces of supply and demand that set all other prices, when this happens and interest rates change naturally but slowly over the business cycles, 'recessions' may not be totally eliminated, but they will be short, miled, and some times may not happed at all.

    Privatise the Bank of England Now!!!

    for more info please googol Austrian business cycle theory
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Speedy said:

    A test case for Nick Palmer's theory of winnowing the GOP field = bad news for Trump.
    Senator Lindsey Graham has dropped out of the race, this leaves just 13 candidates, he last polled 0 in Iowa, 0 in N.H, 1 in S.Carolina (his home state) and 0 nationally.
    So now his crucial endorsement which will sway all 10 of his supporters is now up for grabs.

    Also a poll which highlights the danger to Ted Cruz of Super Tuesday(March 1st), a poll of his home state of Texas that votes on Super Tuesday has him losing to Trump:

    Trump 31
    Cruz 27
    Rubio 10
    Carson 6
    Bush 6
    Paul 5
    Fiorina 3
    Kasich 1
    Christie 1

    http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec14-19RepublicanPrimaryPoll-Texas.pdf

    Now if Cruz loses his own home state of Texas to Trump, he will be embarrassed and there will be pressure for him to drop out.

    Generally Kasich's numbers look poor. I seem to recall him being touted on PB as one to watch.
    Now that the Southern Belle Lindsay has retired, I think every Republican candidate apart from Trump has been touted on PB as one to watch.
    I'm waiting for Scott Walker to sweep all before him as I was reliably informed by PB.
This discussion has been closed.