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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be only six months of EURef campaigning left before Britain decides
It has been known for sometime that Dave/George want to get the referendum out of the way as soon as possible and overnight the news from the Brussels talks is that the favoured timing could be June or July.
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I have no idea whether it will work or not but the claim that this was ever a serious renegotiation of our relationship has been shown to be laughably false.
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2015/10/06/on-the-referendum-18-the-ecj-uses-the-charter-of-fundamental-rights-to-take-more-power-over-the-uk-this-is-just-the-start/
Prisoners will be getting the vote regardsless of a massive majority in our parliament requiring that this does not happen. More tellingly
Still, Theresa May twice refused to rule out leading the LEAVE campaign when asked yesterday, plenty more fun to be had.
Better not let go of Nurse for fear of finding something worse......
It may not be pretty but that's how it tends to work...
Now you have played the man, how about trying to play the ball, or is the Divisional Court a member of vote leave as well. What is it with tribal Tories and cheap point scoring, are you afraid of the actual issues ?
He isn't committed to leave or remain, he is committed to Cameron.
Still, Theresa May twice refused to rule out leading the LEAVE campaign when asked yesterday, plenty more fun to be had.
Never said I was undecided and not a member of any political party. Otherwise good post.
Well know in February more about the likely final deal. The Telegraph speculation is just that at this stage. Latest polls suggest it will take little to secure a Remain vote - but by all means keep up the Cameron hate fest if it makes you feel better.
And he'd be wrong. If the other EU states accept that we have a problem they'll agree to Cameron's demands.
"an “emergency break” on paying in-work benefits to EU migrants if pressure on welfare payment and public services rose exponentially"
From what I know about mathematics, the chances of something like this rising exponentially is unlikely!
Felix said: "Since most leave supporters on here are highly committed to their views there is little Cameron could negotiate which would satisfy them."
I think there is some truth in that, but this is not relevant because Cameron isn't coming back with anything substantial. And don't pretend otherwise.
I think you need more sleep - self-awareness failure alert.
Immigration from OUTSIDE the EU will also stop!
In the longer term, however, if immigration carries on at the rate it's currently at, then I'd suggest the 2020 election will be very interesting.
I'm sure many of the immigrants will return home if our economy goes tits up. I'm sure they wouldn't dream of staying here.
The SNP, LibDems, Labour, PC and Greens clearly for Remain.
The only party where there will be a big split will be the Tories. Scottish Tories will be for Remain, and the rUK Tories will either be half hearted or fighting their own leader.
This is the best opportunity of the parliament for the other parties to wound the Tories. Something even Corbyn and Kendall will agree on.
Much depends on how potential new leaders see the likely result affecting their own political futures. I tend to the view that Osborne is correct here.
The Prime Minister knows that the Outters need to organise, to find credible and articulate spokesmen and women, develop a positive and optimistic message and address fears that Brexit will adversely affect family incomes.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11694135/The-EU-referendum-is-a-race-against-time.html
I'll get my coat and LEAVE ....
The one thing that is certain in this campaign is Tory infighting. Indeed it is the reason that we have a referendum in the first place.
If we vote Leave, then the terms of departure will dominate the next parliament. The rancour will dominate right wing politics for a generation. Centrists and Leftists will look very sober and united in sharp contrast.
Cameron is right to get this out of the way quickly so the damage can be repaired before 2020.
On British emigrants, I doubt France and Spain will stop them moving there if we leave the EU. Ultimately such people provide foreign direct investment. And a lot of those people tend to return to the UK when they get older as they want the comfort of the NHS, which is understandable.
Won't leaving the EU therefore make the "problem", if indeed problem there is, worse?
The leave campaign(s) needs to sort itself out.
Still haven't altered my view that Remain will win at a canter.
I'm increasingly of the view that whatever way the vote turns out, the repercussions within the Tory party will rumble on for another 20 years a la Maastricht.
If REMAIN wins, every new bit of further integration will be met with cries of 'We told you this would happen' from the Outers.
If LEAVE wins, every slight wobble in the UK economy will be denounced as 'It wouldn't have happened if we had remained in the EU'.
That said, I expect REMAIN to get about 55-58% of the vote.
It's all a bit of a buggers muddle with no one ending up happy about it all.
Corbyn's insane, but if the Conservatives went crazy he could yet win. They cannot simply assume they can have a civil war and still cruise to victory.
I repeat my earlier point, which you actually know to be true because of half a million people, there is zero chance of Spain kicking you lot out. Luckily
We'll see how the Conservatives behave before, during and after the referendum, but if they act as if they're entitled to power the electorate may take a quite different view.
If Corbyn won (even as an SNP glove puppet) that would be terrible.
What an extraordinary revelation, who could possible have foreseen that?
Cameron may get out in time and on a relative high (like Blair did).
However I guess that his entire premiership will soon come to be viewed through that prism.
In a referendum every vote counts the same, there are no safe seats.
Also worth bearing in mind that for every Brit working/retiring/studying in the EU, there are a couple more dreaming of doing so. A new life in the sun is a very common dream in a damp British winter.
Blair told untruths to Parliament and caused a war that was not necessarily followed by the best aftermath plan in history.
Cameron's giving the electorate the say.
I don't doubt there's potential for the Conservatives to inflict damage on themselves (but that potential may not be realised, if the leadership campaign acts as a pressure valve), but it's not in the same league as Iraq/Blair [if nothing else, you can't un-invade a country, but you can run a second referendum].
These Inners are the ones calling for honest discussions not scare stories. Tribalism turns rational people into fools.
If they think that Cameron is doing a crap job - REjOICE! It makes your life easier - win the DKs over with warm messages of reassurance, with persuasive facts, and the coherent plans up your sleeve. You'll need them if you win. There is no mileage in blaming your rivals for not supporting your POV - and doubly so for moaning endlessly about how useless they are. It comes across as angry and bitter - and rather unhinged. Imagine United fans complaining City weren't trying hard enough to win...
I'm voting Leave - and I despair at the paucity of persuasion I read on here. If this is indicative of their campaign, winning will be in spite of, not because of them.
Still, you have extraordinarily well for yourself, as you never tire of telling us.
I imagine on the night after the polls have closed.
Presumably there'll be an exit poll and we will immediately have all the odious types (Mandleson, Clarke, Kinnock etc) all over the media calling for Euro membership, Schengen and gawd knows what else.
Its the most disingenuous crap ever, people can't dis Cameron because they don't know what he will bring home, but its perfectly expectable to run around cheering for him, even though they don't know what he will bring home.
The transparent attempt to close down debate on the renegotiation because it might be a bit of an embarrassing damp squib is shameful.
Exactly, I wanted to leave the EU long before Cameron became PM, my stance has absolutely nothing to do with him. The negotiations at the moment are confirmation of what plenty of us have felt for years, we simply don't want our PM begging to the EU to stop giving money to visitors. That's one example, but shows how by stealth we have conceded what most of us see as democracy over the years. This is the message we have to communicate, one of self governance and free trade. Sideshow nonsense about Brits in Benidorm is irrelevant.
I don't like Cameron as a politician but he is nothing whatsoever to do with my feelings towards the EU.
If I was an ex-pat in Spain, I'd be worried and vote Remain in most likelihood. It's just natural self preservation to go with what you know.
Have another full English in the Pig and Whistle and continue to tell us you're open minded about leaving.
Indeed, one of the great risks for Cameron of this referendum is that the solidly pro-EU PLP will finally revolt if Corbyn is not sufficiently enthusiastic in his endorsement of the EU. (It should be noted this is yet another issue where they are out of step with the hard-left membership, who define socialism as 'looking after our workers', not those of [and I quote] 'some shitty Slavic country'.) He's already been forced to tone down some of his rhetoric on the subject of possibly campaigning for out. If this leads to a putsch, the irony of the Labour leader being ousted over a European matter after using it to divide their principal opponents for years will be truly delicious.
The Data Retention and Investigatory Powers Act 2014 that he refers to is an Act which introduces a framework directive, the Data Retention Directive, into UK law. There is absolutely nothing new or startling with the proposition that it is open for a party to argue that the Government has not done that correctly. The leading case in Scotland about that was to do with TUPE more than 30 years ago. I have not been able to find the case he refers to but it is very, very unlikely that the Charter of Fundamental Freedoms has anything to do with its reasoning. I can't see how it could be relevant except to the extent that the Data Retention Directive itself gives certain rights to privacy etc.
To argue that a decision of the CJE in respect of a French prisoner makes it "inevitable" that UK prisoners will get the vote is also inaccurate. It is possible that they might get the vote in EU elections on the basis that the EU is entitled to determine the franchise for its own elections to the European Parliament but this says nothing about their right or non right to vote in UK domestic elections which is not a matter within the competence of the EU. It is a matter within the competence of Strasbourg under ECHR but the Government has been making some progress recently dealing with the Council of Europe on that issue.
I don't give a tinker's cuss what Leavers think about Remainers - why should my next door neighbour vote Leave?
He's apolitical, fairly ordinary job and votes in GEs.
Especially p.94
Given how hard it has been to get the slightest movement or consideration from the other EU members when they are looking down the barrel of their second richest member leaving, how hard is it going to be to get any sort of accommodation for British interests the day after an IN referendum result?
I think that leaving the EU at least gives the opportunity of negotiating a better relationship with the EU. Staying in, doesn't.
Edit: I know [sadly] a fair few rabidly pro-UKIP and anti-immigrant expats over here - but none that would consider voting Leave