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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn supporters are a broad church. Labour MPs worried that he is leading them to defeat need to engage with their new members.
The Shavian quote was offered to me by the wise and erudite Lewis Baston after I recounted to him a Twitter spat with blogger Dan Hodges. For the avoidance of doubt, Hodges, who hails from a Labour family but earns his living from the Telegraph and the Spectator, is cast in the role of the metaphorical pig.
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A series of polls out, 4 actually, 2 from Florida one post one pre-debate, 1 from N.H mostly pre-debate, and one National conducted after the debate:
PPP National after debate
Trump 34 +8
Cruz 18 +4
Rubio 13 0
Bush 7 +2
Carson 6 -13
Christie 5 +2
Fiorina 4 0
Huckabee 4 0
Kasich 2 -1
Paul 2 0
This is a good poll for Trump.
Funny fact, 30% of republicans want to bomb fictional Agrabah (from Aladdin) vs 13% who are against.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/GOPResults.pdf
Boston Herald N.H half before, half after the debate.
Trump 26 -2
Cruz 12 +7
Rubio 12 +6
Christie 11 +8
Bush 10 +1
kasich 8 +2
Carson 5 -11
Fiorina 6 -4
Paul 3 -2
This is a bad poll for Trump.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2015/12/nh_poll_foes_gain_on_donald_trump_hillary_clinton_pulls_even
Opinion Savvy Florida, after debate, their last one was early September:
Trump 30 +1
Cruz 20 +17
Rubio 15 +9
Bush 13 -6
Carson 8 -17
Christie 6 +4
Paul 3 +3
Fiorina 3 -2
Kasich 1 -2
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/FL-GOP-PP-12.17.15.pdf
St.Pete Polls Florida, before debate, their last one was from July :
Trump 36 +10
Cruz 22 +18
Rubio 17 +7
Bush 9 -11
Carson 6 +1
Christie 3 +3
Kasich 2 -2
Fiorina 1 +1
Paul 1 -2
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2015_StatePRI_REP_PRES_December_15_LU47.pdf
I disagree about Hodges. I thought the piece you refer to was well argued.
Instead of constantly grumbling to the press, the PLP should be asking themselves why so many of these moderate, pragmatic, soft left members felt that Corbyn was closer to them than were the 3 "ancien regime" candidates in the leadership contest.
Whereas the Tories (scum) won a democratic election and need to be prevented from doing theirs by an unelected House of Lords, presumably?
"Which is not to deny that there is anything other than a deep sense of gloom amongst the majority of Labour MPs who believe, notwithstanding the victory in Oldham, that Corbyn is unelectable and that the party faces disaster in 2020"
Not according to John McDonnell on PM. Onwards to victory, comrades!!
Indeed, the whole gamut from Jurassic to Cretaceous period….
So did Cameron. Should he be given a free ride on everything he wants, including things not in his manifesto?
'It seemed self-evident that a Westminster coup that led to Corbyn being re-elected by the membership would make Labour’s hole even deeper.'
On the contrary, it would signal Labour are not a bunch of self-indulgent and rather sinister lunatics happy to carp from the fringes of politics (which ironically is what you accuse Hodges of doing) but are serious about getting into power and transforming the country.
'The “din” is also obscuring the fact that Corbyn’s frontbench teams are taking the fight to the Tories and winning arguments on the economy, health, housing, home affairs and climate change. Corbyn supporters and opponents from the leadership battle are working well together.'
Would it be too much to ask for any concrete examples? Because I must admit, although I have been very busy and may have missed something my impression is every single one of these issues has led to notable defeats for Labour. The only minor victory they could claim is tax credits - and the campaign against that was actually led by the Liberal Democrats, which gives you some idea of how effectual and relevant the Corbyn-led Labour party is.
'It’s an argument for taking the long view and for engagement. There’s a good word for claiming to be a progressive then walking away from a fight. It’s “spineless.”
Yes. And that is exactly what Labour is doing. Jeremy Corbyn has as much chance of making a positive, practical difference to the lives of the British people as I have of getting a date with Daisy Ridley, because he will never win an election and as a result gives the Conservatives more or less free rein to do what they like. If Labour really wish to fight, rather than posture with their usual disingenuous self-righteousness, they have to ditch a man who has spent much of his leadership career to date explaining his links to murderers, neo-Nazis and paedophiles in favour of somebody who might win an election. Of the 231 other Labour MPs, approximately 200 are more likely to do this than Corbyn.
Or to put it another way - I voted Labour in May. I didn't particularly rate the candidate (he was a fool) or the party (Miliband was as arrogant as Cameron and completely unselfaware, which is not in fairness one of Cameron's faults) but at least, unlike the Conservatives, he bothered to campaign. I will not vote Labour again until Corbyn is defenestrated and the lingering poison he leaves behind has been purged. If you wish to convince yourself otherwise, feel free, but you are merely destroying your political movement by hubris.
Let's be honest, Corbyn is neither moderate nor pragmatic and would probably be insulted to be called either. Why would moderate and pragmatic members vote for him in preference to Cooper who, while dull, really is moderate and pragmatic herself?
I mean, who would let a little thing that like worry them?
If others feel that Jeremy Corbyn is spouting nonsense and is unelectable, they need to come up with a positive vision of their own and then take it to the membership.
The most fateful decision of the leadership contest was in that first week when Yvette and Andy Burnham followed Kendall down the ultra-Blairite rabbit hole (especially Burnham who had previously built up quite a lot of credit with the "soft left" mainstream in the membership). It didn't actually matter how many leftish-sounding policies the two of them put out after that, the members had stopped trusting them because of what they did in those first few days.
https://twitter.com/elperiodico/status/677840365647474688
PP is water, strawberries are PSOE, Podemos are aubegines and Ciudadanos are oranges!!!!
If the poll is correct. Podemos has surged over recent days and C's has fallen back. It's possible - current PM Rajoy was caught on video the other day telling Angela Merkel Podemos could finish second and private PP polling is said to have PSOE and Podemos battling it out for second place. C's leader, meanwhile, has said his party will abstain in the Parliamentary vote post-GE to choose the new PM. Whatever happens, Spain looks set for a period of instability.
It's just a variant of I Don't Know Him, Oh You Mean That Man I Campaigned With
I think PP and Cs will comfortably beat the 175 mark, meaning you need to have at least one of them in your coalition, and that the only stable outcome is PP + C.
PSOE + Cs would probably be quite well received by the market (especially as it would likely close down the Catalonia issue), but won't get 175.
And Cs and PP will vote down any government with Podemos in it.
Therefore the most likely outcome - whatever C currently says - is a PP + C coalition.
The consequence is there are likely to be lots of rural constituencies which give 2 PP MPs, and 1 PSOE, with Podemos votes effectively being lost.
Btw, I don't think there has ever been a Labour government that was not markedly different from any likely Tory one. But there's this anxiety that the movement will become what it is meant to oppose.
More than 2,000 residents of the small town of Geldermalsen take to the streets tearing down fences and chanting anti-immigrant slogans"
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/thousands-riot-in-small-dutch-town-over-plan-for-asylum-seeker-centre
She was crap as a SoS and crap as a ShCab minister. Burnham wasn't much better but at least he seemed genial. Now we know he's got nothing about him at all.
It doesn't mean they supported all his policies. Even less does it mean they want to subvert the Labour Party onto a far left agenda.
I believe many of them would support a potential leader who provides a convincing and uplifting left wing alternative to the familiar Tory story.
I continue in my belief that Corbyn will step down of his own accord and recommend his successor (who won't be McDonnell who I think Corbyn recognises is flawed as a potential Labour leader even if he is a good friend). Benn and Nandy are my current best guesses. Benn has the oratory and the name. Nandy has the values and political nous.
Thank you to Don for another interesting piece from a different and welcome perspective. From a non-Labour (and non-Conservative) perspective, the May 2015 GE defeat was the culmination of a process of confusion which had begun (arguably) before 2010. The Mandelson/Campbell project had reached its conclusion and there seemed no answer to the question "where do we go from here ?" just as the Conservatives had no conception of a post-Thatcher future in 1990.
Corbyn's victory was, to my way of thinking, an attempt to re-define Labour away from a managerially more competent version of the Conservatives toward something distinctive which articulated the anger felt toward the Conservatives (traditional) and wasn't prepared to compromise to it (unlike the Lib Dems and some of the Blairites).
There's nothing wrong with "distinctive" but sudden shifts in public policy don't sit well with the British people generally. Thatcher succeeded in 1979 because it seemed clear Butskellism had failed. It will take another crisis of that magnitude with the attendant discrediting of pseudo-austerity before people look at an alternative prospectus.
They will not back Camerons renegotiation though. They like the Social Chapter.
Oh well, it's happened. Labour is over. Life goes on.
(a) the PP has been rocked by corruption scandals
(b) the PP has taken a very hard-line with Catalonia and therefore seen its support there collapse
They are not the LibDems. They are a centre right, not a centre left party. They are Cameroons, but Euroenthusiasts rather than Eurosceptics.
Mr. Die, utterly different situation. Power flows to Brussels, not away. The reverse is true of devolution.[/quote]
Nonsense. The EU parliament has a polis of 503 million, the UK only 64 million, therefore it has more legitimacy and a greater mandate.
Thirty percent of Republican primary voters say the national security threat posed by the nation of Agrabah demands U.S. military intervention, according to a new poll released on Thursday.
Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, also found that supporters of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump were more likely to favor bombing the made-up Arabian nation from the 1992 animated film "Aladdin."
Trump won 45 percent support among those who advocated the bombing of Agrabah, compared to just 22 percent support from those who opposed it.
Thirteen percent of Republicans said they opposed bombing the country.
A plurality of Democrats, 36 percent, also opposed the measure, compared to 19 percent who said they support it.
http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/263713-poll-30-percent-of-republicans-want-to-bomb-country-from
Then I was a very grudging supporter of Yvette and ended up with Corbyn because all the others were cr@p with their campaign.
However I disagree about Corbyn's succession, I think he will stay the full 5 years in order to make the PLP as much left wing as he can in order to assure that there is a left wing leadership candidate and not a coronation.
Equally no one who has come out already as an underminer of Corbyn's leadership can ever win the contest for the leadership, and neither anyone who lost to Corbyn in 2015.
It's too early to say who will be Corbyn's successor, if or when he steps down, but we know who to cross off the list.
I was also referring more to the Labour membership (ancient and modern so to speak). Corbyn was the only candidate offering an answer to the question "what is the point of Labour ?" which didn't involve wholesale surrender to the policies of Cameron/Osborne.
But it proves that americans (mostly republicans) are true to their stereotype of Yosemite Sam.
Which is worrying if stereotypes are accurate, since the american stereotype (and I think the world stereotype judging by Hollywood movies) of an average brit is a gay villain.
There's a substantial minority of seats that will go to nationalists in Catalonia and the Basque country - perhaps 8-10% of the total number.
So, you basically have a situation where 35% of the seats are PP, 17% are Citizens. 25% are PSOE and 17% Podemos. Podemos + PSOE is well short of the 50% mark, and could only get there if they got support from all the nationalist groups and (effectively) Citizens chose to abstain.
But Citizens is the anti-Podemos. They would vote down any government with Podemos in it.
Ultimately, the two centre right parties will have 50-55% of the seats. Whatever they might say, that is the only theoretical governing group.
(Unless PSOE does sufficiently well that PSOE + Cs can get get 45%, then you might have the nationalists abstain on the basis that they'd rather have PSOE + Cs, on the basis that there would be more concessions that way. But Podemos's rise seems mostly at the expense of the PSOE, which makes a PSOE - Podemos coalition unlikely.)
Spain has learned this lesson (at least until Sunday
The one that suggests there will be a need for 3 major parties to form any coalition, instead of 2?
Anyway so far the polls suggest a normal election campaign with the centre squeezed by the right and the left, as the PP is squeezing the C's and Podemos is squeezing the PSOE.
Bare in mind that Spain uses the D'Hond method for seat allocations, which mean that the barrier for a party to gain lots of seats is around 15%, and C's are already falling close to that level.
Plus of course a slightly smaller or larger state, slightly more or less redistribution, a slightly larger or smaller role for the private sector.
Not only is Jezza fighting the wrong battle, he is fighting a battle that (for him) was lost 30 years ago.
It is fine for a Labour Party to be marginally left of centre (especially given how far left the Cons have tacked). But Labour Party "purists" fear that; they want the electorate to be flag-waving statist, social justice warriors. Whereas most are just trying to get on in a sensible social environment.
That's where Jezza, John Mac, Diane and Ken are getting it wrong.
Clearly EU membership is not incompatible with a high employment rate!
The underlying premise of this thread header is that Corbyn is a reasonable guy with whom it is possible to have disagreements and then work together in a constructive way.
This is deeply, irresponsibly and dangerously deluded. Corbyn and his coterie are not nice guys. They have had one criteria for the groups that they support over the last 30 years: that they are hostile to the country that they hold in contempt, whose values they abhor and success they denigrate. That country is of course their own with the USA getting many honourable mentions.
Provided that criteria was met they got Corbyn's support no matter how evil, bigoted, misogynist, homophobic or just downright murderously evil they were. The Labour party should be ashamed of having such moral incompetents in charge of it. Pretending that this solution to this calamity is the well tried belief that it will somehow be alright on the night is irrational bordering on stupid.
Apart from that excellent thread header.
Of the three member rural constituencies, a large number will go 2 PP, 1 PSOE (and in a few cases Podemos). Because the PP is so strong in rural Spain, at a 28% vote share, it will end up with 35% of the seats.
A 10% vote share that's concentrated heavily in urban areas will give you a decent number of seats. A 10% vote share that's distributed equally around the country will not lead to lots of seats.
Not sure how Aoife would do. Our shepherds nearly all seem to have ear issues ...
BTW, following Zopher's loss to cancer this summer, we have a new addition to the family which is quite ridiculous - a shorty black and tan Jack Russell, known in the States as an Irish Hunt Terrier. Only 20 weeks old and ridiculous in every way. Latches on to Aoife's scruff, lip, ear or tail and won't let go, but she walks around almost as if he doesn't have his teeth sunk into her. Occasionally, she picks him up by putting his whole head in her mouth and carting him around thus. Bernie, short for Bernoulli, as his legs are so short he has to fly over the grass.
We'll have Clegg next.
Is it really the case that if you're noisy and wrong for 30 years you'll be accepted, and possibly embraced.
Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Livingstone, Bragg (Billy), ,,,Forsyth (bruce)...
The next thing will be idiots of the obvious class being allowed out.
Sorry we've done that. He built some aircraft carriers I believe.
The problem for Labour is the Jezzbollah sect have the party by the cassocks and the wider voting public are simply not going to light the fire for white smoke to billow from the 10 Downing Street chimney in favour of electing red Cardinal Corbyn.
The harsh reality is that the Conservatives are presently the only game in town and their electoral hegemony looks set to run for the medium term and certainly until Labour is rid of its' turbulent priest at the top.
Occasionally also the voice of Satan. But gay villain most often.
Not sure how Aoife would do. Our shepherds nearly all seem to have ear issues ...
BTW, following Zopher's loss to cancer this summer, we have a new addition to the family which is quite ridiculous - a shorty black and tan Jack Russell, known in the States as an Irish Hunt Terrier. Only 20 weeks old and ridiculous in every way. Latches on to Aoife's scruff, lip, ear or tail and won't let go, but she walks around almost as if he doesn't have his teeth sunk into her. Occasionally, she picks him up by putting his whole head in her mouth and carting him around thus. Bernie, short for Bernoulli, as his legs are so short he has to fly over the grass.
Tra la la la la, la la la la.
'Tis the season to be ...