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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Cameron struggles to make progress with the EU talks two new referendum polls have LEAVE moving up
What we really need are some more phone polls which have suggested a very different outcome from the online surveys which predominate. There are three December phone polls to come and I’m hoping that ComRes, ICM for the Guardian and Ipsos-MORI will have included referendum voting intentions – after all we could just be months away from the actual election.
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Shame his ambitions are such thin gruel. He could have rolled his sleeves up and said "Right. Let's face up to some hard truths. The EU is badly broken. Let's start with books that haven't been signed off for twenty years.... And the cost of these crazy rotating venues. And the mess of our borders. I'm ready to talk about an EU fit for the twenty first century. That's what Britain is interested in. But if you want to keep something frozen in the 1950's, then my people are ready to walk away from this mess. Now, if you are serious about ever greater integration, that needs a common language. So, in thirty years time, there will only be one official language across the EU. English....Next...."
Now THAT would be a renegotiation.
Good decision by the House of Lords yesterday not to back voting for 16-17 year olds.
Irrespective, I still believe the referendum will take place in 2017.
Agree, the outcome is too close to call, but the direction of travel is promising.
Still have little faith in UK polling, until proved otherwise I’ll take everything with a bag of salt.
That is how two-year-olds carry on.
If we vote to stay will we, the Great British People, at the next Euro elections election some sensible people who will try to make things work, as oppsed to a few troughers who are obsessed with throwing sand in the works, and will work with sensible partners in Europe rather than the "well over to the right"?
Doing so, I suggest would make a difference at a lot of levels.
If we leave, will we find ourselves doing what the Kiwis and Aussies had to do when we scrapped Commonwealth Preference.... having to find a significant amount of new markets? Will we find major capital raising taking place in Paris and Frankfurt rather than London?
At this moment, no-one seems to have seriously set out anything.
Also the most eurosceptic place in the UK was the Western isles. Wonder if they'll vote "No" so heavily again ?
Statistical noise. Nothing more.
viewcode said:
The question is not whether the Germans will refuse to sell us cars: plainly they will continue to do so. The question is under what circumstances and for what cost
@moses
Mmmmm.....that has the slight taint of blackmail about it. It is interesting really because this is how I have viewed the European Project for many years. Not a trading group with freedom to cross borders but a political entity to control vast swathes of the European continent under the threat of do as we say or else. It's the politics we see when we lift up the stone we should really be concerned about, not the trading of motor cars which will continue either way.
http://hopisen.com/?p=6549
Time to get in the party mood:
https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/676671553870761984
Your europhilic scaremongering would embarrass Foxinsocks... maybe
Leicester are quite keen to get into Europe next year!
What does a man do, while still quoting "The Red Flag", seeing his pink party turn deepest red, and really can't stand the stink of the New Communism being formed?
I really don't have a sliver of doubt that things will be 98% the same as now EU trade wise. They want to sell stuff - we want to buy it. We're already customers and suppliers they know. Apart from a very small hardcore of grievance numpties - no business will cut off its nose here.
That is not a reason to remain. We should not be blackmailed, expressly or implicitly.
Pay Danegeld one year, and it'll rise the next.
For too long we've had X Factor politics, people cheering on the person they like the most, irrespective of what they stand for. Everything the Tories goaded the Blairites about is repeating itself, I find it genuinely puzzling that hitherto rational people can behave in such a fawning manner.
Merger talks between the rival Leave campaigns have collapsed
http://bit.ly/1RlwFMO
Personally, I am very dubious about any of the media froth about the renegotiation. I have been involved in enough negotiations to understand that there is a lot of posturing going on. This is not to say that Cameron will be able to deliver anything substantive, it is simply too early to say either way.
What is clear is that the British love of the EU is very strained, very tired and frankly very calculating. We are akin to the unhappy spouse who is conscious that staying together means certainty, security and probably a higher level of prosperity in the short term but who dreams of a new and better life with new opportunities and the possibility of doing better in the longer run.
I am tending towards the latter view and found Robert's comments about this on the previous thread persuasive. What I would like to see is a consensus develop that we will seek to remain in the EEA, that we are realistic about the costs and limitations that that would impose on us and that most of the fantasies of the Brexit supporters be discarded.
We need to recognise that in or out the EU would be our major trading partner, that we would have to accept a lot of their rules in our domestic law to have that trading access, that we would have relatively little input into those rules and that most of our efforts to reach trade agreements with the rest of the world will be on the EU's coat tails. But if we are pragmatic and realistic about it I can still see that being a better future than being full members of a club dominated by the EZ, constantly out of step with our friends.
If Cameron found a new settlement that assuaged my concerns I could still be tempted to vote for In but this is looking less and less likely in a continent struggling to cope with mass waves of refugees and persistently high unemployment. They simply have other priorities.
For this reason, the most sensible solution would be a move to EFTA/EEA as soon as practically possible, and then to have a considered discussion -from there- about the relationship we wish to have.
It's a very important issue, and the BBC went out of their way to report on it. Nice to see good journalism at the top of the news agenda.
Even without petulance, it will be a complicated procedure.
Hence my suggestion of us going back into EFTA as a transitional state, and which would trigger none of these issues.
Fundamentally that is my problem with this whole charade, its bullshit, we are trying to push the rest of Europe in a direction is doesn't want to go, it won't go there. There will be endless challenges to the ECJ for any "legal agreement" and not the faintest chance that any treaty changes will be ratified by the electorates of say... France. Even if we get an agreement, which is looking dwindlingly unlikely, the chance of it still being in play in 5 years time is microscopic.
tl;dr The British people are being asked to barter their sovereignty against something that won't happen, or if it does, won't last until the ink dries. None of which is in Cameron's gift.
If we vote to leave, then leave we shall.
If only had the voters understood AV better his intervention would not have been a game changer.
And ultimately, if people decide to base their vote on stupid reasons, that's their right and we will be governed as we deserve.
We need to emphasise that everybody should be free to trade with whom they wish and the EU is really little to do with trade it's about political union and financial control, just have a look at Greece.
We simply don't need to be in the EU to trade, people like dealing with us, more importantly we don't want the inevitable ever closer political union, because if we vote to stay in effect that's what we're agreeing to, no turning back.
We've had Robert's message system, then Disqus, and now Vanilla = maybe another shortlived one too.
"100 BILLION posts!"
During what is described as a “cordial” meeting, Mills and Hodson were frank about their reservations. They cited what they see as Banks’ “erratic” behaviour and his determination to put immigration at the heart of the Brexit campaign as key barriers to a full merger.
They also raised the thorny question of the role to be played by Nigel Farage, over which the rival campaigns disagree. (Vote Leave believes Farage is too divisive and politically damaged to lead the campaign, whereas leave.eu believes he must be at the forefront.)
At least you've already prepared a defence . Honestly, I'm in no position to complain about how labour do things, but it has odd that a leader would publicly oppose the party view, and that would seem to provide a lot of cover for people.
For that reason, if we signed - for example - a Free Trade Agreement with China, so that Chinese goods could be imported to the UK without tariffs, then that would mean that Chinese goods could be imported to any EU country without tariff, simply by the expedient of landing them at Felxistowe.
Mr. Eagles, sounds like Vote Leave are sensible, and leave.eu are part of the Faragian Cult.
I'm one of the In-With-Both-Feet Club. Once I've made a decision to support a view, it takes a great deal to make me change my mind or allegiance. I'll put up with a great deal of tension and squabbling - then BANG, the elastic snaps and that's it.
That's how I feel now about my switch from Remain, to Reluctant Stayer to Full Leave. It's taken a lot of cobblers to push me over, but now I've inspected what I really think, rather than stick with what I felt loyal to - the decision became crystal clear. I was trying to persuade myself - which is daft.
Edit: I see what you mean, yes, it would inconvenience the EU, not frankly a big problem for me so long as Britain gets the best deal for its businesses
Same with planning. Without a spark of inspiration, it's a real slog. Our best sessions were down the pub - seriously. We ended up a bit tiddled, but came back bouncing with ideas and cunning plans.
Mr. Eagles, cheers.
I can't help but feel that if we were led by Aurelian we would've already conquered the EU.
Incidentally, Aurelian conquered/reclaimed the Palmyrene Empire, the ruins of which were recently destroying by foam-flecked lunatics.
It can be quite nice to have regular little breaks for less emotional/comedic stuff, though.
I know @Antifrank is undecided but scrolling through poster names it strikes me that the vast majority of us are now "Leave".
@RCS1000 ?
But there is a danger here. Cameron's polling isn't wonderful (yes, it's better than Corbyn's, but that's not the issue here), and I've seen it said (not sure how strong the evidence is) that referendums tend to morph into votes on the government of the day. If people with no strong preference about Europe either way decide that this is a chance to say if they really like David Cameron or they want to give him a kick, then Remain is in serious trouble.
Against that, the office of PM carries a certain weight, and so do the party leaderships generally. The fact that Remain will be backed by EVERY party leader except Farage is probably going to swing it. The current negotiations are following a standard pattern - there will be hurdles and crises and rows and then there will be a deal. All the party leaders except Farage will say well, it's just about OK. I think it'll be enough. And posibly it'll give Cameron a bit of an Indian summer in his ratings, and he'll decide to leave soon afterwards.
They have a history of uniting Europe to crush the French.
I have faith in Dave, who needs Aurelian?
Several labour leaning people on here are firmly IN too, I believe they work in the public sector.
https://masseyuni.wufoo.com/forms/nz-quote-of-the-year-2015/
Meanwhile, result of the New Zealand Flag referendum
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/2015_flag_referendum1/results-by-count-report.html
Why David Cameron should lead the campaign to leave the EU
http://bit.ly/1O6tEzA
I enjoy the indiscipline of BTL comment, just stream of consciousness stuff.
I do have form for voting against the way Dave would like me to in plebiscites.
It contains the line "There are two types of people in the world, those who think AV is superior to first past the post, and those who are wrong"