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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser
Only one person has set the race for next year’s GOP nomination alight and that person is Donald Trump. Behind his blaze of controversy, energy, self-publicity and populism lies a field strewn with the bewilderment of his rivals: how has he lasted so long? Why have his gaffes not brought him down? How can he be effectively taken on? As yet, they have no answers.
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US/UK cultural divide grows apace and is personified by Donald Trump. I don't get the appeal.
What Trump gets is that in a crowded field he really just needs to stand out with any old populist themes. The other candidates, Bush especially, are trying to have rounded platforms when they ought to be picking a couple of fights over major conservative themes.
"The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution was neither a revolution, nor great, nor cultural, and, in particular, not in the least proletarian."
In an uncertain economic & political time, it is quite possible that the US voting public will turn to a 'strongman' who will 'get things done'.
To where would the hysterical right emigrate? Argentina?
I 'm allowed to dream, colleagues, I'm allowed to dream!
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/in-depth/analysis/total-immersion-the-worlds-longest-immersed-tunnel/1021406.article
It'll be interesting to see if the Germans sign off on the project.
We can - and should - do Boris Island. Pain in the short term, gain in the long term.
And welcome.
And that goes a long way to explain why Trump polls far better among independents/Republican leaners than he does among conservatives.
This is the thing about freedom: When you try to take away other people's, you usually also end up taking away your own.
That was a puzzle, you may be onto something.
Of the 10 liberal policies, this one stood out:
"He's in favor of a ban on assault weapons."
Of the 10 liberal policies, this one stood out:
"He's in favor of a ban on assault weapons."
A practical definition of a US conservative is: won't cross the Atlantic because there's no right to bear arms on this side of the pond. Many of them are simply gagging to commit "justifiable homicide"
Mr. Tokyo, it's not freedom, it's welfare.
That said, I agree it's a nonsense of a policy. But then, I think the EU is a daft organisation.
The same principle applies. If they haven't paid UK taxes for an extended period, then why should they benefit from UK taxes?
Sounds fair to me, whatever we do about EU migrants.
Sounds fair to me, whatever we do about EU migrants.
But of course they can have votes, because they're mostly Tories. Or have I missed something? (I often do.)
Seems perfectly ok to me - I think the measure should apply to everyone - it's the norm here in Spain - no contributions, no benefits.
Sounds fair to me, whatever we do about EU migrants.
Quite so.. why should people who have contributed nothing be "entitled" to claim..
99% of the public couldn't care less about expats' problems. And I can't see why I should be cosseting those who haven't been contributing to the state's coffers or living in Britain. Shouldn't they be claiming off the state they've made their home?
I exclude refugees, we must be prepared to offer a safe haven for people fleeing war.
No-one else is talking to this constituency. Probably because they are appalled at having to say anything.
And in practice, it will matter not. Barely fifty percent of Americans will vote in their first female President in their history, and the ever reducing number of Americans who bother will get a warm glow about themselves for doing so...
The principle is already firmly established in the Habitual Residence Test (albeit a briefer length of time) and has been applied for over twenty years.
Someone who has spent many years of their lives paying no tax in Britain is already denied the right to waltz back in and start claiming, as are all the UK passport holders that inherit the status from former commonwealth arrangements or through parental linkage.
Short term absences would easily be covered by a linking rule.
The big silent secret is how would they apply it to the NHS, where ex-pats often just pop back to avail themselves of treatments they have long since stopped contributing taxes towards.
Right. I can't see "think of the poor (returning) expats" moving many votes.
Welfare is only a State-sponsored compulsory insurance scheme. I see no difference between an expat divorcée returning to Blighty and a 16-year-old entering the labour market for the first time.
You might as well say that people who have never smoked shouldn't have to pay for the health-care of smokers and ex-smokers.
Agreed. I live in Spain and have to prove private medical cover until I reach state pension age. Should be the same in the UK.
[The smoker example may be a bad one, as cigarettes are taxed so heavily that, even considering healthcare costs, smokers are net contributors to the Treasury].
Why does Spain exemplify perfection? Because you choose to live there?
Tbh I'm not interested in religion, I upset a Christian group by saying I wouldn't give priority to Christians over other religions, I certainly wouldn't give priority based on sexuality.
Some people will get upset and accuse me of all sorts of things but we're not an enormous Barnardos Care Home, we're a small nation, drowning in debt without the resources and infrastructure to cope with an ever increasing population.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/626106/PC-David-Cameron-Christmas-card-no-reference-Xmas
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35076976
Isn't that a killer for remain anyway. If the British public was bothered about this (I'm not sure they would be), their response would be "change the UK law so we can."
Are the EU saying ... "You cannot make laws about UK citizens alone, as that's up to the EU."
Yes, I know they would, but my response and many others would be "F*ck off."
A gift for out.
(Though as MD says, they've probably paid it through cig duty anyway).
The thread seems to be a reasonable read. However, the two main animals in the zoo have almost become one - producing a Donkiphant or an Elidonk - that most people cannot tell the difference: much like Labour and Tory in Britain.
While it's true that most new immigrants have no time for Trump. Many of the old immigrants (the rest of the population) have found in Trump a voice that describes their feelings and deep beliefs.
Hillary, if elected, will see the completion of the present madness of the American Elite, started by Bush and continued by Obama; and who knows how that will end? But however it ends it will be a misery for the U.S. and the world.
I apologise if the above is a bit disjointed, but that the mood I'm in.
Mind you I think a bigger question for many people would be why are people in working getting benefits anyway....
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=114907
I was quite surprised.
They might have contributed 20 year of NI before they left for all you know.
Yes, and yet we would continue providing benefits to several hundred thousand failed asylum seekers that we fail to even try to remove, I can see that one going down well.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eid-al-adha-2015-david-camerons-message
My point is the correct name for festivals of whatever religion should be used and I never understand why Christmas is singled out every year for alternative names. We are our own worse enemies etc.
Computers would still be beige boxes sitting on the floor and Nokia would still dominate mobile phones.
errrrrrr.. I said contributed nothing.
Indeed, but that is the proposal. Mr and Mrs Bloggs after a decade of working in the UK, move to Spain with their kids. Four years later Mr Bloggs runs off with a waitress and Mrs Bloggs now having no income returns to the UK for the support of her family etc, gets a job, but is not eligible for any in work benefits...
Sounds fair enough to me. The prodigal son makes for a great parable but as a nation we shouldn't be killing fatted calves for those who left and for whom things didn't work out so well. Why isn't Mrs Bloggs staying in Spain? Why isn't Mr Bloggs supporting his ex wife and family?
Expats seem to expect a lot for free. There's no reason why national insurance, like any other form of insurance, should pay out if you let the policy lapse.
Not at all - it's true of many EU countries that you're expected to contribute for some time before you are eligible for benefits. It's really the UK that is the exception here and the UK is far from perfect. As it happens Spain is perfect for me for many other reasons.
I agree from the UK based public's point of view. The issue might be though that until now Remain have assumed they had the expat British vote in the bag - bearing in mind that most of the expat British community will be able to vote in the referendum. If they now see that they are being thrown to the wolves to satisfy the EU and secure a deal; they may not be so likely to vote in favour.
When put that way, of course...
Expats seem to expect a lot for free. There's no reason why national insurance, like any other form of insurance, should pay out if you let the policy lapse.
The other problem with the proposal is that it is ripe for challenge by the ECJ. As far as the EU has always been concerned where you have lived in the EU should not dictate whether or not you get benefits. Even with a treaty agreement (which isn't going to happen any time soon) the 'discrimination' as some will claim it to be will be enough to allow the ECJ to get involved if anyone cares to mount a challenge.
You seem to be obsessed with entitlement to benefits. People make choices, mistakes have bad luck - your only response is to give them benefits come what may. That is why the welfare bill is so ridiculously high.
Personally (even as an expat) I could care less, but politically it seems idiotic. Not giving British Citizens what we freely give to failed asylum seekers, is going to be a gift to the DM tendency and the out campaign. Regardless of what we might think about it, its going to generate a load of court cases as people's lawyers explore the inconsistencies and lots of DM headlines about Mrs Bloggs, 47 being left destitute as her husband runs off with Spanish waitress, 18, while we give the money to former eastern block pickpockets.
They are the bulk and elite in Corbyn's Labour Army.
Well, now that the Enoch Powell Fan Club is in full session I think I will attend to the groceries... see you all to-morrow
But this presumably will either need some legal changes in the EU, have additional features or apply only to expats outside the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12046438/true-and-fair-foundation-hornets-nest-charity-report.html
Thank you for the random lefty insult generated comment - over-used the fatcha one have we.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/education/wales-cutting-funding-universities-third-10588171
There are three key problems with these cuts to Welsh universities:
1) The size of them. Cutting budgets by a third is a sure-fire way to cause trouble. Two probable consequences will be a massive hike in tuition fees - including the end of subsidised fees for Welsh students - and a very large rise in the number of foreign students at the big five universities (Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff, South Wales and Swansea). That means that Labour will simultaneously be imposing massive austerity and breaking its pledge to get rid of tuition fees. And when will this happen? I think about April will be the moment that it goes public. The elections are of course in May.
2) The location of them. In England, cuts to university funding have a negligible impact on the local economy because most university towns are large and have a substantial and diversified economy. In Wales, it would not be wholly an exaggeration to say three towns - Aberystwyth, Lampeter and Bangor - owe their very existence to their universities, while Wrexham, Carmarthen and even Swansea and Newport have an unusually large proportion of their workforce in HE. Only in Cardiff would the economy be sufficiently broad-ranging to withstand cuts in the workforce or even the loss of a university. Bangor and Wrexham are Labour marginals, and Swansea is less safe for Labour than it was. Bad news on the universities could cause a few major shocks in the constituency results, and it isn't going to help Labour's increasingly desperate appeal for list voters. With these cuts, the odds are Lampeter (the Lampeter campus of UWTSD, to be precise) will close - however, as there are very few Labour voters in Lampeter anyway I doubt if that will have any bearing on the result. Bangor is the one to keep an eye on.
(continued)
3) The money is instead being spent on secondary eduction. Which would be fine, if Welsh secondary education were not in such a disastrous condition that it needs massive reform rather than good money being thrown after bad. The LEA system in Wales makes the old English one look like a model of transparency, integrity and financial efficiency, and the inspection regime (ESTYN) is very weak (although it's little different in practice from OFSTED, which says a lot about OFSTED). Effectively the WAG is saying, 'We have bad schools and bad universities. So let's punish the universities for being bad by taking the money they need and failing to make our schools better.' Not, in my view, a vote winner.
The irony is of course that Welsh universities did OK - not brilliantly, but OK - in last year's REF, and that could have been a springboard to something really good with the right management and careful financial handling. Alas, that's never going to happen while Wales is run by the current bunch of jokers in Cardiff.
Perhaps as a compromise we could let expats volunteer to keep paying tax and NI to keep their eligibility for social security benefits open. That seems fair enough to me.
It´s time for BRITAIN to be FREE again - Frederick Forsyth
Therefore I find it impossible to believe that this means the technology sector could possibly be worse off without Apple and Jobs, or that it is only favoured by the pro-Eurabia multi-culti rootless cosmopolitans at the BBC
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/09/brits-oppose-muslim-policy-pockets-approval/
Looks like you're a closet kipper, MalcolmG.